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(The New York Times)   FiveThirtyEight's final numbers are in: 315.3 to 222.7 EVs for Obama and Romney giving the incumbent a 92.2% chance of victory to Romney's 7.8%   (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) divider line 379
    More: Followup, United States Senate, FiveThirtyEight, swing states, percentage change, Democrat majority, Democrats, program designer, mid-September  
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4062 clicks; posted to Politics » on 05 Nov 2012 at 11:40 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-06 12:37:44 AM  

davidphogan: Now that that's settled, what about Puerto Rico becoming a state? Cause, that's getting voted on tomorrow as well. Link


If it's like the other 37 times they've tried this, I'm not expecting much.
 
2012-11-06 12:38:42 AM  

dywed88: SilentStrider: Bucky Katt: I Like Bread: I WANT TO KNOW WHAT GARY JOHNSON'S CHANCES ARE

Somewhere between diddly and squat

So you're saying there's a chance?

It would require a number of faithless electors and a screwed up House.nyrkah1: SouthParkCon: Mrtraveler01: SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.

Where are you getting that message from? 

It's just probability based on an aggregate of polls. Nothing nefarious or sinister about it.

Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.

Nate Silver has NOTHING to gain by being wrong.
Nate Silver has LOTS to lose by being wrong.

I think you over-estimate how much he has to lose. I really don't think he would mind being pushed out of the mainstream media and I seriously doubt any statistically oriented group would even consider not welcoming him with open arms. If Romney won every state Nate would still be welcome in his old baseball circle.

That said, from everything I have seen of the man and read about and by him (including going back to stuff from his baseball days) he is in this for the numbers, not the politics. He isn't going to throw his stats and models under the bus. It seems like he got into politics because it was an empty space (on the statistical side) full of challenges not because he was wanting to influence the public or go mainstream. And he is already talking about leaving politics to try his statistics in another field.


I'm glad you brought that part up, I had in mind to say something along those lines, but failed to. I get the feeling he really wants to be right on behalf of teh maths and statistics.
 
2012-11-06 12:38:59 AM  

The Great EZE: MFAWG: jsteiner78: http://www.unskewedpolls.com

Link

That's a HUGE downturn from where he was at Friday. 330 as I recall.

From the link:

This year's early voting [in Ohio] includes more than 576,000 Democrats to 492,000 Republicans. That margin is about 265,000 less than the larger margin by which Democrats dominated early voting four years ago in Ohio. That cancels the 262,000 vote margin by which Obama won Ohio four years ago. The election day voting in 2008 was won by McCain by 75,000 votes, who lost the state overall since Obama had won the early voting by more than 337,000 votes. Additionally, it is estimated that more than 350,000 evangelical Christians, who were primary supporters of Mike Huckabee in the 2008 primaries, did not turn out to vote for McCain in the general election.

...Chunky did things to math in that passage so vile that even Republican candidates are asking if it needs a ride to the clinic.


My dad was quoting these numbers to me yesterday, and seeing you post them made something click in my head.

For 4 years now there have been two separate realities in this country. We are finally coming back together tomorrow, and one of these realities is going to crash and burn.
 
2012-11-06 12:39:09 AM  

God's Hubris: gayb: Voter fraud on both sides will likely be a wash. Obviously. Anyone who thinks one of the two major political parties in the US has a corner on the ethics market is f*cking delusional.


Whoa. I was gonna vote Democrat, but now that you've told my both sides are bad, I don't know which party to vote for.


I don't care. I was referring to how predictions derived from polling data should probably remain unaffected by likely impossible-to-quantify fraud.
 
2012-11-06 12:40:05 AM  

Mrtraveler01: davidphogan: Now that that's settled, what about Puerto Rico becoming a state? Cause, that's getting voted on tomorrow as well. Link

If it's like the other 37 times they've tried this, I'm not expecting much.


Pretty sure they've only tried this three times before, and this time the latest poll I showed was 48% statehood with a +/- 3% margin of error.
 
2012-11-06 12:41:12 AM  
Just noticed that "unskewed" polls has dramatically tighten up their "predictions." Romney still wins of course.
 
2012-11-06 12:41:23 AM  

Solid Muldoon: gayb: Voter fraud on both sides will likely be a wash. Obviously. Anyone who thinks one of the two major political parties in the US has a corner on the ethics market is f*cking delusional.

A wash?

On the Republican side: Governors. Secretaries of State. Heads of Election Commissions. The owners of voting machine companies.

On the Democratic side: That one lady who got caught.


You're mindblisteringly delusional.
 
2012-11-06 12:42:11 AM  

Blue_Blazer: The Great EZE: MFAWG: jsteiner78: http://www.unskewedpolls.com

Link

That's a HUGE downturn from where he was at Friday. 330 as I recall.

From the link:

This year's early voting [in Ohio] includes more than 576,000 Democrats to 492,000 Republicans. That margin is about 265,000 less than the larger margin by which Democrats dominated early voting four years ago in Ohio. That cancels the 262,000 vote margin by which Obama won Ohio four years ago. The election day voting in 2008 was won by McCain by 75,000 votes, who lost the state overall since Obama had won the early voting by more than 337,000 votes. Additionally, it is estimated that more than 350,000 evangelical Christians, who were primary supporters of Mike Huckabee in the 2008 primaries, did not turn out to vote for McCain in the general election.

...Chunky did things to math in that passage so vile that even Republican candidates are asking if it needs a ride to the clinic.

My dad was quoting these numbers to me yesterday, and seeing you post them made something click in my head.

For 4 years now there have been two separate realities in this country. We are finally coming back together tomorrow, and one of these realities is going to crash and burn.


Nope. The reality that is but fiction will continue to be perpetrated.

ACORN did it. No, wait, the New Black Panthers scared off the good, hardworking voters who wanted to vote for Romney. 0vomit is a Kenyan usurper anyway, so he's not the legit president. Fast and Furious. Solyndra. Benghazi.

You know the Republican response to reality by now. Double down on the derp.
 
2012-11-06 12:42:25 AM  
justtray
--------------------------------------------------------------------- - ----------

Wow, reeks of Republican desperation in here.

Sorry girls, your hero Mitt has ZERO chance in reality world. Obama is gonna put up 300+ on him EASY.

Take it to the bank, I called it on Nov 5th, 2008. Go look it up.

Also, Obama is going to win the Pop vote as well. Keep on praying to your God or whatever other nonsense is telling you otherwise, won't matter a bit.


29 Oct 2012 07:21 PM
 
2012-11-06 12:42:57 AM  
Imagine the world Wednesday if Romney rolls that 20 and wins a squeaker. Not only can we look forward to Romney's policies being implemented, but Romney is rewarded for his naked avarice and willingness to say anything to win. Science takes another hit with the public. Bright minds like Wang and Silver are "discredited" while the likes of Coulter, Gingrich and even the unskewed-polls buffoon are "vindicated." Just think about that. Someone upthread said the unskewer is now predicting R 275. If Romney does win, that is probably going to be close to his actual EV total. That doofus would be able to ride that prediction for years.

What a nightmare to imagine. And even by Silver's projection, it could conceivably happen.
 
2012-11-06 12:43:00 AM  

SouthParkCon: Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle


The difference is he was right last time, more right than almost everyone else. He has history on his side, you have wishful thinking.
 
2012-11-06 12:43:12 AM  
Somehow, I still expect Romney to win in a electoral landslide in some Rovian election fixing grand strategy that is barely legal like an eighteen year old teen.
 
2012-11-06 12:43:15 AM  
Assuming that the polling is accurate and that there isn't any broad scale fraud, I am so going to gloat tomorrow night. I know it may be unseemly of me, but I'm still going to do whatever I can to rub it in. I've spent the last few years having to put up with people gloating about the tea party, gloating about passing state level same sex marriage bans, gloating about buying chick-fil-a, heck, gloating about the death of Americans in terror attacks, and you bet your sweet bippy that after all that, I'm going to gloat.
 
2012-11-06 12:43:37 AM  
because SOME polls are unskewed. lol

"Final Projection: Romney 275 electoral votes to Obama 263 electoral votes

The QStarNews projection of the 2012 presidential race sees Mitt Romney being elected the next president of the United States with 50.67 percent of the popular vote and 275 electoral votes to President Obama's 48.88 percent and 263 electoral votes.

QStarNews predicts the turnout nationally will includes 36.4 percent Democrats, 36.1 Republicans and 27.5 percent independents. QStarNews predicts turnout will rise by about four percent, or a total of about 131,165,384 voters including about 600,000 for third party candidates and the rest going to Romney and Obama."

unskewedpolls.com

oh, the reality! the huge manatee! either is correct but not unskewed polls
 
2012-11-06 12:43:37 AM  
Gayb

Fraud is difficult to quantify, but "both sides are bad" is a very simplistic analysis. For one, you'd look at what parties control the secretary of state's office - even if democrats would like to commit fraud in Ohio, they're not in a position to rig the voting machines. Also at how close it is to begin with - fraud tends historically to shift close states, although with voting machines maybe that's changed. It's possible to do an analysis, I'm sure.

That said, Silver uses historical data to compare polls with results, and fraud wasn't invented this election cycle. So barring some unprecedented, multi-state effort I think his projections will hold.
 
2012-11-06 12:43:51 AM  

statisticals: GWSuperfan: Granny_Panties: Today's NATE SILVER is the greatest threat the Statisticals has ever faced.

Bah. I've defeated worse.

Me too.


Way to stuff the toothpaste back in the tube.
 
2012-11-06 12:44:22 AM  

gayb: Solid Muldoon: gayb: Voter fraud on both sides will likely be a wash. Obviously. Anyone who thinks one of the two major political parties in the US has a corner on the ethics market is f*cking delusional.

A wash?

On the Republican side: Governors. Secretaries of State. Heads of Election Commissions. The owners of voting machine companies.

On the Democratic side: That one lady who got caught.

You're mindblisteringly delusional.


Really? Then show me some facts to prove me wrong. Real facts. Not Fox Facts.
 
2012-11-06 12:44:24 AM  

Solid Muldoon: gayb: Voter fraud on both sides will likely be a wash. Obviously. Anyone who thinks one of the two major political parties in the US has a corner on the ethics market is f*cking delusional.

A wash?

On the Republican side: Governors. Secretaries of State. Heads of Election Commissions. The owners of voting machine companies.

On the Democratic side: That one lady who got caught.


Governors and Secretaries of State can mess with the rules - but it isn't "vote fraud". Voting is a political process - people are always going to try to mess with it. And owners of voting machine companies? Sorry - throwing an election this way is very very difficult. What will end up screwing things up? Gross incompetence. Every time.

/take the tin foil hat off and back away from the computer dude
 
2012-11-06 12:44:41 AM  
justtray
--------------------------------------------------------------------- - ----------

So Nate thinks Obama is going to lose Florida, North Carolina, and Indiana probably, all states he won in 2008.

On top of that, a lot of states Obama won he has as near coin flips such as Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, Iowa, and Virginia.

Sorry, don't think this is very accurate unless you think Romney/unknown is somehow more popular than McCain/Palin. I will simply never believe that.


07 Jun 2012 02:30 PM
 
2012-11-06 12:44:56 AM  

rynthetyn: Assuming that the polling is accurate and that there isn't any broad scale fraud, I am so going to gloat tomorrow night. I know it may be unseemly of me, but I'm still going to do whatever I can to rub it in. I've spent the last few years having to put up with people gloating about the tea party, gloating about passing state level same sex marriage bans, gloating about buying chick-fil-a, heck, gloating about the death of Americans in terror attacks, and you bet your sweet bippy that after all that, I'm going to gloat.


If the republicans don't get smacked down in the house and senate, you might want to save your gloating.
 
2012-11-06 12:45:38 AM  

davidphogan: Pretty sure they've only tried this three times before, and this time the latest poll I showed was 48% statehood with a +/- 3% margin of error.


But if Puerto Rico becomes a state, then we will no longer have a total of 538 electoral votes, and so FiveThirtyEight will have to become something like FiveFortyOne and then nobody's bookmarks will work anymore and this will mean that the Whigs will automatically take control of the House, and you know what that means.
 
2012-11-06 12:47:13 AM  

tjfly: Harvey Keitel said something in Pulp Fiction that applies here.


Do you like oak Jimmy?
 
2012-11-06 12:47:33 AM  

The Great EZE: MFAWG: jsteiner78: http://www.unskewedpolls.com

Link

That's a HUGE downturn from where he was at Friday. 330 as I recall.

From the link:

This year's early voting [in Ohio] includes more than 576,000 Democrats to 492,000 Republicans. That margin is about 265,000 less than the larger margin by which Democrats dominated early voting four years ago in Ohio. That cancels the 262,000 vote margin by which Obama won Ohio four years ago. The election day voting in 2008 was won by McCain by 75,000 votes, who lost the state overall since Obama had won the early voting by more than 337,000 votes. Additionally, it is estimated that more than 350,000 evangelical Christians, who were primary supporters of Mike Huckabee in the 2008 primaries, did not turn out to vote for McCain in the general election.

...Chunky did things to math in that passage so vile that even Republican candidates are asking if it needs a ride to the clinic.


But it's got numbers in it, so it can't be wrong! That's what Dean learned from watching Nate: if you have numbers, you must be right. By the way, for all he talks about Ohio in that post, the tipping point in Unskewed's 275 projection is Colorado, which he has going Romney by 20,000 / 0.9%. Some nice comparisons from his previous projection (change the 03.cfm to 02.cfm):
Colorado: Was Romney +9.4%, now Romney +0.89%
Iowa: Was Romney +7.7%, now Obama +0.26%
Nevada: Was Romney +5.9%, now Obama +4.6%
New Jersey: Was Obama +1.3%, now Obama +7.7%
New Mexico: Was Romney +7.4%, now Obama +7.1%
Virginia: Was Romney +15.6%, now Romney +1.9% (he didn't even try to explain this one in his previous post)
 
2012-11-06 12:47:55 AM  

birdboy2000: Gayb

Fraud is difficult to quantify, but "both sides are bad" is a very simplistic analysis. For one, you'd look at what parties control the secretary of state's office - even if democrats would like to commit fraud in Ohio, they're not in a position to rig the voting machines. Also at how close it is to begin with - fraud tends historically to shift close states, although with voting machines maybe that's changed. It's possible to do an analysis, I'm sure.

That said, Silver uses historical data to compare polls with results, and fraud wasn't invented this election cycle. So barring some unprecedented, multi-state effort I think his projections will hold.


Completely reasonable. I agree that I was being simplistic, but with 100 million people involved, predicting a wash isn't that insane. Another way to say it is that the levels of fraud, even if horribly uneven, probably won't be any differently uneven this particular election cycle, which is in line with what you said as well.
 
2012-11-06 12:47:58 AM  

Hamilstan: Imagine the world Wednesday if Romney rolls that 20 and wins a squeaker.


www.command-post.org

What a squeaker might look like.
 
2012-11-06 12:48:04 AM  
i.imgur.com
 
2012-11-06 12:48:59 AM  

Omahawg: because SOME polls are unskewed. lol

"Final Projection: Romney 275 electoral votes to Obama 263 electoral votes

The QStarNews projection of the 2012 presidential race sees Mitt Romney being elected the next president of the United States with 50.67 percent of the popular vote and 275 electoral votes to President Obama's 48.88 percent and 263 electoral votes.

QStarNews predicts the turnout nationally will includes 36.4 percent Democrats, 36.1 Republicans and 27.5 percent independents. QStarNews predicts turnout will rise by about four percent, or a total of about 131,165,384 voters including about 600,000 for third party candidates and the rest going to Romney and Obama."

[unskewedpolls.com image 600x517]

oh, the reality! the huge manatee! either is correct but not unskewed polls


The saddest part of this, is that this unskewed guy is thinking that he can somehow salvage some credibility (income source) beyond tomorrow.
 
2012-11-06 12:49:01 AM  
Would it be awesome if:

lh6.googleusercontent.com

I don't know much about him, but just the spectacle the absolute media and political frenzy would be awesome. Sadly, its laughably improbable in this universe.
 
2012-11-06 12:49:02 AM  
images1.wikia.nocookie.net

I'm ready for you conservatives. Lets do this.
 
2012-11-06 12:49:19 AM  

seventypercent: davidphogan: Pretty sure they've only tried this three times before, and this time the latest poll I showed was 48% statehood with a +/- 3% margin of error.

But if Puerto Rico becomes a state, then we will no longer have a total of 538 electoral votes, and so FiveThirtyEight will have to become something like FiveFortyOne and then nobody's bookmarks will work anymore and this will mean that the Whigs will automatically take control of the House, and you know what that means.


Powder futures skyrocket?
 
2012-11-06 12:49:36 AM  

nmemkha: Would it be awesome if:

[lh6.googleusercontent.com image 400x618]

I don't know much about him, but just the spectacle the absolute media and political frenzy would be awesome. Sadly, its laughably improbable in this universe.

 
2012-11-06 12:50:22 AM  

jsteiner78: WI241TH: I'll wait for the polls to be unskewed and the statistical quirks to be harmonized thank you very much

Unskewed has put out a new projection,this one has Romney at 275 EV
http://www.unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012%20president_03. c fm


Wow. That's amazing.

Consider: You randomly added 3-8 points to your guy's poll numbers he *still* only ekes out a 5 EV victory.
 
2012-11-06 12:50:28 AM  

seventypercent: davidphogan: Pretty sure they've only tried this three times before, and this time the latest poll I showed was 48% statehood with a +/- 3% margin of error.

But if Puerto Rico becomes a state, then we will no longer have a total of 538 electoral votes, and so FiveThirtyEight will have to become something like FiveFortyOne and then nobody's bookmarks will work anymore and this will mean that the Whigs will automatically take control of the House, and you know what that means.


The Powder heavy portfolio will pay dividends to the Whigger investors?
 
2012-11-06 12:50:37 AM  
quickpic.us

Seems legit.
 
2012-11-06 12:50:58 AM  

I Like Bread: I WANT TO KNOW WHAT GARY JOHNSON'S CHANCES ARE


0.1% according to intrade

Link
 
2012-11-06 12:51:43 AM  
Vote here:
farm9.staticflickr.com 
hope the dog doesn't eat your ballot.
 
2012-11-06 12:51:45 AM  

SouthParkCon: Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.


So math has a liberal bias?
 
2012-11-06 12:52:13 AM  
Results in for those weirdos who vote at midnight.

Dixville (Butthead laugh) Notch: Romney 5, Obama 5 (2008 Results: Obama 15, McCain 6)

Hart's Location: Obama 23, Romney 9, Gary Johnson 1 (2008 Results: Obama 17, McCain 10, Ron Paul 2)
 
2012-11-06 12:53:49 AM  
I predict Obama will take the early lead tomorrow... Until Republicans get off work to go vote.
 
2012-11-06 12:54:52 AM  

SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.


Right, the statisticians are in the tank. Everyone knows math has a liberal bias!

(Uh, anyways, not sure how if he was pro-Obama, saying that Obama will win helps Obama win? Wouldn't that make more Democrats less likely to bother voting if their guy will win anyways?)
 
2012-11-06 12:55:17 AM  

tjfly: I predict Obama will take the early lead tomorrow... Until Republicans get off work to go vote.


herp derp, only republican's have jobs, derp derp derp.
 
2012-11-06 12:55:54 AM  
I'll say this for Nate Silver and Sam Wang: If their going to be wrong, they are REALLY going to be wrong.
 
2012-11-06 12:56:10 AM  

tjfly: I predict Obama will take the early lead tomorrow... Until Republicans get off work to go vote.


The fake Tim Tebow Twitter feed already used this joke today.
 
2012-11-06 12:56:13 AM  

Coolfusis: flucto: All this really reminds me of 2004.

As confident as I am in numbers, I can't help but think there's going to be an awful lot of shenanigans tomorrow. I can say for the first time ever that I am actually worried about how this election will turn out.

The prospect of a Romney presidency farking terrifies me. Not in the sense that he'll do anything catastrophically horrible in his first term - but that it would be a sign from the voters to the GOP that you can lie, cheat, flip-flop, and just generally be dicks and we'll let you do it. Not only will we let you do it, we'll give you the keys to the highest office in the country.

What would that say about us?


That for about the 10th or 12th time in our history, rampant corruption was a part of the election and helped decide the winner.

// My granddaddy was up all night in 1960 punching ballots for Kennedy. Had him a room full of his buddies doing the same.

None of this crap's new. Every election has cheating. How well and how often is the only issue in question. And whether its enough to matter.
 
2012-11-06 12:56:48 AM  

Hamilstan: Imagine the world Wednesday if Romney rolls that 20 and wins a squeaker. Not only can we look forward to Romney's policies being implemented, but Romney is rewarded for his naked avarice and willingness to say anything to win. Science takes another hit with the public. Bright minds like Wang and Silver are "discredited" while the likes of Coulter, Gingrich and even the unskewed-polls buffoon are "vindicated." Just think about that. Someone upthread said the unskewer is now predicting R 275. If Romney does win, that is probably going to be close to his actual EV total. That doofus would be able to ride that prediction for years.

What a nightmare to imagine. And even by Silver's projection, it could conceivably happen.


Thanks. I'm scarred for life.
 
2012-11-06 12:56:52 AM  

epocalypse: I'll say this for Nate Silver and Sam Wang: If their going to be wrong, they are REALLY going to be wrong.


Or it'll help point the finger at the rampant cheating that would have been, presumably, successful.
 
2012-11-06 12:57:09 AM  

epocalypse: I'll say this for Nate Silver and Sam Wang: If their going to be wrong, they are REALLY going to be wrong.


Wang more than Silver. Silver is fairly confident right now, but is still slightly paranoid that all the polls are wrong in their methodology which accounts for the 8% chance Romney is at.
 
2012-11-06 12:57:35 AM  

flucto: All this really reminds me of 2004.


*nods* we'll see, though.....
 
2012-11-06 12:57:38 AM  

Blue_Blazer: seventypercent: davidphogan: Pretty sure they've only tried this three times before, and this time the latest poll I showed was 48% statehood with a +/- 3% margin of error.

But if Puerto Rico becomes a state, then we will no longer have a total of 538 electoral votes, and so FiveThirtyEight will have to become something like FiveFortyOne and then nobody's bookmarks will work anymore and this will mean that the Whigs will automatically take control of the House, and you know what that means.

Powder futures skyrocket?


IT MEANS THAT WE GO TO WAR WITH THE COMANCHE NATION

Actually, I don't have the first farking clue about Whig policy and I'm too lazy to look it up, but IMHO the Comanche Nation has been begging for it for a long time now.
 
2012-11-06 12:57:48 AM  
Romney has a better chance at winning the election than McCain did in 2008. I think Romney is 200% better chance than McCain was back in 2008.

Also the Panthers beat the Redskins.
 
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