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(The New York Times)   FiveThirtyEight's final numbers are in: 315.3 to 222.7 EVs for Obama and Romney giving the incumbent a 92.2% chance of victory to Romney's 7.8%   (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ) divider line
    More: Followup, United States Senate, FiveThirtyEight, swing states, percentage change, Democrat majority, Democrats, program designer, mid-September  
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4063 clicks; posted to Politics » on 05 Nov 2012 at 11:40 PM (3 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-06 12:23:16 AM  

Bucky Katt: Dr.Zom: If Obama pulls this off I'm going to get righteously drunk and prank call some Republicans.

at least try to be funny


You've never bothered, why should I?

/wait by the phone
 
2012-11-06 12:23:21 AM  

SouthParkCon: Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.


Actually, yes, I'm willing to believe that Silver isn't as much of unprincipled piece of shiat as you are.
 
2012-11-06 12:23:35 AM  

The Great EZE: seventypercent: Finally, Silver's credibility is on the line here. If he's ridiculously wrong, he will have shot it. I don't think he's willing to do that for some conspiracy theory about suppressing Republican vote. It just doesn't pass the smell test.

I agree with this point, but you're going to get reminded that Silver never actually made a prediction of a winner, just a forecast of odds for or against a certain candidate.

Personally, I find that to be a semantics-based argument, especially considering the current 92-8 spread. Nate and his supporters need to come to terms with the fact that his odds forecast is being interpreted as a prediction--as it should. Elections aren't games of chance where the winner is decided by random bouncing of ping pong balls. I've always used his quantitative odds numbers to form a more qualitative prediction in my mind: that, if turnout is normal, and if there isn't a massive widespread dismantling of ALL the polls, Obama will win. We're still dealing with if's, but they're manageable if's not dependent on chance.

I may be reading his site wrong and I may be putting him in a position he doesn't want to be in, but that's the reality of his forecasting model. If Romney wins there's going to be 'splaining to do, and rightfully so.


The probabilities of either winning is dependent on state by state and national polling not farking up some where in their methodology. Since he's not savvy in that side of things, he account that it's possible that they farked up somewhere enough that their MOE is bigger than they're stating. If you want to see something akin to Fivethirtyeight that DOESN'T "hedge" in such a fashion, check out the Princeton Election Consortium Link, which has Obama at a 99.8% chance of winning. Also, check out this to get an idea of he differences between the various aggregators (Fivethirtyeight, PEC, etc etc)
 
2012-11-06 12:23:50 AM  

Notabunny: mrshowrules: Mrtraveler01: mrshowrules: Silver on Colbert right now.

Loved Colbert's troll face when they showed that clip of Romney copying Colbert's Super PAC slogan.

When I heard Romney earlier today say, "a better tomorrow, tomorrow", I thought that sounds farking stupid. I completely forgot the title of Colbert's book. Reality is funnier than fiction.

Video goodness


somebody on the Romney campaign has a good sense of humour and is pissed-off
 
2012-11-06 12:24:36 AM  

Triumph: Nate Silver bases his model on polling. He doesn't factor in vote fraud. That's his Achilles heel.

That and fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency...and an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope.
 
2012-11-06 12:24:51 AM  

whidbey: austin_millbarge: Fark that. No farking way those neocon pigs are running us into the ground again.

That.
 
2012-11-06 12:25:21 AM  

Triumph: Nate Silver bases his model on polling. He doesn't factor in vote fraud. That's his Achilles heel.


Even if you assume Romney could take 3 States by fraud, he still loses. I'm not worried.
 
2012-11-06 12:25:25 AM  

Granny_Panties: Today's NATE SILVER is the greatest threat the Statisticals has ever faced.


Bah. I've defeated worse.
 
2012-11-06 12:25:37 AM  

gravebayne2: I Like Bread: I WANT TO KNOW WHAT GARY JOHNSON'S CHANCES ARE

0%


That seems rather high. I'll wait for unskewedgravebayne2posts.com to update.
 
2012-11-06 12:25:40 AM  

Jiro Dreams Of McRibs: Kevin72: WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?

That was my brother-in-law. I'm sure of it. He wasn't going to vote again for Obama. I guess change was too slow. But he must have snapped out of it at the last minute.

Tell him a grateful nation says "Thanks" then punch him in the arm for making that grateful nation worry about him voting for Romney.


I can't punch him. He's like my twin from a different mother. My sister married a man born the same date, year, almost minute as I. It's endearing to me he could be undecided that close to the edge.
 
2012-11-06 12:26:08 AM  
And unless they are 100% accurate with zero errors then he's just as much guessing as everyone else.
 
2012-11-06 12:26:29 AM  

whidbey: austin_millbarge: Fark that. No farking way those neocon pigs are running us into the ground again.


 
2012-11-06 12:26:39 AM  

mrshowrules: When Colbet's is interviewing Silver. Silver talks about how is computer is running the new numbers in the green room. Consider yourself all caught up. I like Silver explaining that the math isn't even that complicated. I take 20 polls with 19 saying one thing and the conclusion is pretty obvious.


We're talking about a party that doesn't believe in set theory.
 
2012-11-06 12:26:41 AM  

phritz: A man boasts to me of Momentum, his greatest invention. "To victory," he cries, taking flight. I light a candle from the wax of his wings.


This one makes me feel tingly in my no-no spot.
 
2012-11-06 12:26:52 AM  

randomjsa: And unless they are 100% accurate with zero errors then he's just as much guessing as everyone else.


Late to the party, but good to see you.
 
2012-11-06 12:27:10 AM  

GWSuperfan: Granny_Panties: Today's NATE SILVER is the greatest threat the Statisticals has ever faced.

Bah. I've defeated worse.


Me too.
 
2012-11-06 12:27:20 AM  

SilentStrider: Bucky Katt: I Like Bread: I WANT TO KNOW WHAT GARY JOHNSON'S CHANCES ARE

Somewhere between diddly and squat

So you're saying there's a chance?


the Universe is huge and ridiculous and sometimes there are miracles
 
2012-11-06 12:27:34 AM  
Obama is gonna win. Deal With It.
 
2012-11-06 12:27:38 AM  
Voter fraud on both sides will likely be a wash. Obviously. Anyone who thinks one of the two major political parties in the US has a corner on the ethics market is f*cking delusional.
 
2012-11-06 12:27:51 AM  

Triumph: Nate Silver bases his model on polling. He doesn't factor in vote fraud. That's his Achilles heel.


Perhaps that's because vote fraud is virtually non-existant in this country.
 
2012-11-06 12:27:55 AM  
OMFG!! FARTBONGO'S CHANCES HAVE JUST NOW DROPPED A FULL 0.2% TO 92.0%, AND ROMNEY'S HAVE INCREASED TO 8.0%!! IT'S ROMNEY'S BIG COMEBACK!! SUCK IT, LIBTARDS!!
 
2012-11-06 12:28:14 AM  

randomjsa: And unless they are 100% accurate with zero errors then he's just as much guessing as everyone else.


Dude, your boy at unskewed moved Romney from 330 to 275. That's after he harmonized his statisticals.

Go stock up on ammo and canned goods or something.
 
2012-11-06 12:28:33 AM  

The Great EZE: seventypercent: Finally, Silver's credibility is on the line here. If he's ridiculously wrong, he will have shot it. I don't think he's willing to do that for some conspiracy theory about suppressing Republican vote. It just doesn't pass the smell test.

I agree with this point, but you're going to get reminded that Silver never actually made a prediction of a winner, just a forecast of odds for or against a certain candidate.


Fair enough, but it's not an all-or-nothing proposition. Silver projected 49 of 50 states correctly in 2008, and 34 of 36 Senate races correctly in 2010. We won't be looking at just the ultimate result of the election, but also how we got there.

For the record, I do think that comparing the 2008 record to whatever his 2012 record ends up being is a bit of an apples-and-oranges comparison; the 2008 election was not particularly competitive and the outcome was never really in doubt. This is a little bit different story, since it's a closer election and there are more states that really are tossups and could go either way.
 
2012-11-06 12:28:50 AM  

randomjsa: And unless they are 100% accurate with zero errors then he's just as much guessing as everyone else.


Only the Sith deal in absolutes
 
2012-11-06 12:29:11 AM  

Triumph: Nate Silver bases his model on polling. He doesn't factor in vote fraud. That's his Achilles heel.


No. By keeping his integrity, that is how fraud will be proven and John Husted will be jailed.
 
2012-11-06 12:29:24 AM  

Bucky Katt: SilentStrider: Bucky Katt: I Like Bread: I WANT TO KNOW WHAT GARY JOHNSON'S CHANCES ARE

Somewhere between diddly and squat

So you're saying there's a chance?

the Universe is huge and ridiculous and sometimes there are miracles


THERMODYNAMIC MIRACLES
 
2012-11-06 12:30:16 AM  

Cyberluddite: OMFG!! FARTBONGO'S CHANCES HAVE JUST NOW DROPPED A FULL 0.2% TO 92.0%, AND ROMNEY'S HAVE INCREASED TO 8.0%!! IT'S ROMNEY'S BIG COMEBACK!! SUCK IT, LIBTARDS!!


www.realclearsports.com
 
2012-11-06 12:30:44 AM  

SilentStrider: Bucky Katt: I Like Bread: I WANT TO KNOW WHAT GARY JOHNSON'S CHANCES ARE

Somewhere between diddly and squat

So you're saying there's a chance?


It would require a number of faithless electors and a screwed up House.

nyrkah1: SouthParkCon: Mrtraveler01: SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.

Where are you getting that message from? 

It's just probability based on an aggregate of polls. Nothing nefarious or sinister about it.

Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.

Nate Silver has NOTHING to gain by being wrong.
Nate Silver has LOTS to lose by being wrong.


I think you over-estimate how much he has to lose. I really don't think he would mind being pushed out of the mainstream media and I seriously doubt any statistically oriented group would even consider not welcoming him with open arms. If Romney won every state Nate would still be welcome in his old baseball circle.

That said, from everything I have seen of the man and read about and by him (including going back to stuff from his baseball days) he is in this for the numbers, not the politics. He isn't going to throw his stats and models under the bus. It seems like he got into politics because it was an empty space (on the statistical side) full of challenges not because he was wanting to influence the public or go mainstream. And he is already talking about leaving politics to try his statistics in another field.
 
2012-11-06 12:30:44 AM  
Do they sell Nelson Muntz yard signs?
 
2012-11-06 12:30:55 AM  
Don't celebrate just yet. If you haven't voted, vote. It doesn't matter if you're state is redder than a baboon's ass. The popular vote needs to be decisive.

A hardcore conservative I know was already hemming and hawing today about how obsolete the electoral college is. If Obama doesn't pull off a decisive electoral and popular vote victory, this will be the new talking point come Wednesday. 2000's goose meets 2012's gander.

This dude's pretty good at figuring out what the next outrage du jour will be.
 
2012-11-06 12:30:58 AM  

furiousxgeorge: Obama is gonna win. Deal With It.


24.media.tumblr.com
 
2012-11-06 12:30:58 AM  
Ann Coulter is now saying the polls are skewed because of the Bradley effect. I haven't heard that gem since 2008. She was actually making the case that Tea Partiers are afraid to say that they don't like Obama because they'll be branded racists.

Bless her heart.
 
2012-11-06 12:31:14 AM  

MFAWG: jsteiner78: http://www.unskewedpolls.com

Link

That's a HUGE downturn from where he was at Friday. 330 as I recall.


From the link:

This year's early voting [in Ohio] includes more than 576,000 Democrats to 492,000 Republicans. That margin is about 265,000 less than the larger margin by which Democrats dominated early voting four years ago in Ohio. That cancels the 262,000 vote margin by which Obama won Ohio four years ago. The election day voting in 2008 was won by McCain by 75,000 votes, who lost the state overall since Obama had won the early voting by more than 337,000 votes. Additionally, it is estimated that more than 350,000 evangelical Christians, who were primary supporters of Mike Huckabee in the 2008 primaries, did not turn out to vote for McCain in the general election.

...Chunky did things to math in that passage so vile that even Republican candidates are asking if it needs a ride to the clinic.
 
2012-11-06 12:32:49 AM  

Triumph: Nate Silver bases his model on polling. He doesn't factor in vote fraud. That's his Achilles heel.


Actually, he kind of does. Link

He frequently errs on the side of caution, and assumes that ALL polls are potentially off by a margin greater than the margin of error. It's why his percent chance of a Romney victory is 20 times higher than Wang's at the Princeton Election Consortium.
 
2012-11-06 12:33:07 AM  

gayb: Voter fraud on both sides will likely be a wash. Obviously. Anyone who thinks one of the two major political parties in the US has a corner on the ethics market is f*cking delusional.



Whoa. I was gonna vote Democrat, but now that you've told my both sides are bad, I don't know which party to vote for.
 
2012-11-06 12:33:21 AM  

randomjsa: And unless they are 100% accurate with zero errors then he's just as much guessing as everyone else.


You must work on Wall Street.
 
2012-11-06 12:33:24 AM  

randomjsa: And unless they are 100% accurate with zero errors then he's just as much guessing as everyone else.


You are playing the short game which is only going to make the long game harder. Admit Romney is going to lose and you can be the first derper on your block with any street cred. When you wake up tomorrow, you can no longer back-out. This is your last chance (I've decided) admit that you think Romney is going to lose and you will retain a shred of credibility. Otherwise, I can't protect you.

/I've been drinking
 
2012-11-06 12:33:50 AM  
Now that that's settled, what about Puerto Rico becoming a state? Cause, that's getting voted on tomorrow as well. Link
 
2012-11-06 12:34:01 AM  

Notabunny: randomjsa: And unless they are 100% accurate with zero errors then he's just as much guessing as everyone else.

Only the Sith deal in absolutes


Well, and the Jedi.
 
2012-11-06 12:34:09 AM  
2.bp.blogspot.com
 
2012-11-06 12:34:12 AM  

The Great EZE: ...Chunky did things to math in that passage so vile that even Republican candidates are asking if it needs a ride to the clinic.


There's nothing wrong with the math from a glance over, just his assumptions -- that those Huckabee supporters exist, that the fall in Democratic early voters means they won't vote on the day, that the rise in Republican early voters won't mean their vote share tomorrow won't drop.
 
2012-11-06 12:34:55 AM  

Curse of the Goth Kids: Tigger: SouthParkCon: Mrtraveler01: SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.

Where are you getting that message from? 

It's just probability based on an aggregate of polls. Nothing nefarious or sinister about it.

Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.

Would you like to put some money on this with me? I'll give you 2-1 odds.

Sounds like you haven't done your homework. STUDY IT OUT


How about you?
 
2012-11-06 12:35:13 AM  
Wow, seems odd for the predictions to change so much so quickly. If that actually ends up being the real electoral map at the end of the day tomorrow, Republicans are going to crap their pants. They've already more or less conceded a Romney loss by talking about how Obama would not have a "mandate" if he wins, but damn, that would be quite a mandate.
 
2012-11-06 12:35:14 AM  

furiousxgeorge: Obama is gonna win. Deal With It.


i.imgur.com
 
2012-11-06 12:35:48 AM  

Jiro Dreams Of McRibs: Kevin72: WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?

That was my brother-in-law. I'm sure of it. He wasn't going to vote again for Obama. I guess change was too slow. But he must have snapped out of it at the last minute.

Tell him a grateful nation says "Thanks" then punch him in the arm for making that grateful nation worry about him voting for Romney.


Actually i don't know if he was ever for Romney. It was in mid 2011 when he said he didnt want to vote for Obama again.
 
2012-11-06 12:35:53 AM  

Tax Boy: furiousxgeorge: Obama is gonna win. Deal With It.

[24.media.tumblr.com image 350x249]


Yeah, there's only one Avatar.

fc06.deviantart.net
 
2012-11-06 12:36:02 AM  

Boxcutta: Ann Coulter is now saying the polls are skewed because of the Bradley effect. I haven't heard that gem since 2008. She was actually making the case that Tea Partiers are afraid to say that they don't like Obama because they'll be branded racists.


She says that every four years because thats how often a Bradley is in her.

/wait? wut?
 
2012-11-06 12:36:19 AM  
Well, that's only a 7.8% higher chance than a heartless, worthless, only-here-because-his-daddy-left-him-money douche should have if this country were smarter.

I wouldn't trust Romney to run the fry machine at a McDonald's, so yeah, the presidency is out of the question. Maybe this asshat should get a job for once, and no, cushy upper management jobs at Bain and running for office don't count.
 
2012-11-06 12:36:48 AM  

Kevin72: Triumph: Nate Silver bases his model on polling. He doesn't factor in vote fraud. That's his Achilles heel.

No. By keeping his integrity, that is how fraud will be proven and John Husted will be jailed.


I agree. Poll aggregators like Nate are doing a public service - if the tallies tomorrow diverge too much from his forecasts they'll be probable cause to investigate fraud.

I'm actually reasonably confident that Obama will win Ohio. His polling in the last few days has been very good. A 4 or 5 percent margin (like in 2008) will be really hard to flip without raising obvious red flags.
 
2012-11-06 12:37:27 AM  

gayb: Voter fraud on both sides will likely be a wash. Obviously. Anyone who thinks one of the two major political parties in the US has a corner on the ethics market is f*cking delusional.


A wash?

On the Republican side: Governors. Secretaries of State. Heads of Election Commissions. The owners of voting machine companies.

On the Democratic side: That one lady who got caught.
 
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