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(The New York Times)   FiveThirtyEight's final numbers are in: 315.3 to 222.7 EVs for Obama and Romney giving the incumbent a 92.2% chance of victory to Romney's 7.8%   (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) divider line 379
    More: Followup, United States Senate, FiveThirtyEight, swing states, percentage change, Democrat majority, Democrats, program designer, mid-September  
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4059 clicks; posted to Politics » on 05 Nov 2012 at 11:40 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-06 12:06:23 AM

I Like Bread: I WANT TO KNOW WHAT GARY JOHNSON'S CHANCES ARE


Somewhere between diddly and squat
 
2012-11-06 12:06:43 AM

SouthParkCon: Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.



I'm told statistical probability has a liberal bias.
 
2012-11-06 12:06:48 AM

austin_millbarge: Fark that. No farking way those neocon pigs are running us into the ground again.

 
2012-11-06 12:07:24 AM

SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.


I know that this is a popular theory among conservatives, but I just don't get it.

See, here's the thing. If I'm a pollster, and I'm in the tank for a certain political candidate, the absolute best thing that I can do for that candidate is to get my polls right. This idea that I'm going to manipulate the poll numbers to make the situation for "my candidate" seem better than it actually is makes no sense at all.

This would be like going to the doctor to get your blood pressure taken, and then telling the doctor to knock a few points off both numbers before he tells you the results. Guess what? If you have high blood pressure, you're better off knowing that it's high. Having your doctor massage the numbers before he gives them to you just to make you feel better about your health is not going to help you.

Similarly, if "my candidate" is down by two points in a state, it doesn't do anybody any good for me to fudge the numbers to make it look like he's up by two points. If "my candidate" is down by two points, then he or she needs that information so that informed and educated decisions can be made about how to allocate campaign funds, canvassing staff, advertisements, etc. That can only happen if the numbers that I'm reporting are as accurate as I can possibly make them.

The idea that skewed polls serve to demoralize and depress conservatives to keep them at home on election day has absolutely no basis in reality. If anything, these polls further energize conservatives to attempt to swing the balance back in Romney's favor. They even run the risk of causing Democrats to become complacent and say "Ehh, I'm not going to stand in line for two hours, Obama's got this."

I don't care what the projections and the polls say. If you're an Obama voter in a swing state and you haven't already voted, get your ass out there and vote tomorrow. Hell, if you're a Romney voter, you get your ass out there and vote as well. There's no excuse for not voting.

Finally, Silver's credibility is on the line here. If he's ridiculously wrong, he will have shot it. I don't think he's willing to do that for some conspiracy theory about suppressing Republican vote. It just doesn't pass the smell test.
 
2012-11-06 12:08:57 AM

tjfly: Harvey Keitel said something in Pulp Fiction that applies here.


I drive really fast?
 
2012-11-06 12:09:01 AM

mrshowrules: Silver on Colbert right now.


That's impossible, it's only 9:00.
 
2012-11-06 12:09:15 AM

Tigger: God's Hubris: Lenny_da_Hog: FreeRepublic is in denial, praying, and setting themselves up for continued anger this evening.

I got a dude on Facebook letting everyone know it's gonna be a 377 Romney landslide.

What do they do AFTER they are that wrong?

Is it like Fark Independents where they just pretend it never happened or do they do anything?



I'm predicting copious amounts of election fraud accusations.
 
2012-11-06 12:10:16 AM
i.imgur.com
 
2012-11-06 12:10:32 AM

NuttierThanEver: tjfly: Harvey Keitel said something in Pulp Fiction that applies here.

I drive really fast?


Something about the coffee, I think.
 
2012-11-06 12:10:39 AM

seventypercent: I don't care what the projections and the polls say. If you're an Obama voter in a swing state and you haven't already voted, get your ass out there and vote tomorrow. Hell, if you're a Romney voter, you get your ass out there and vote as well. There's no excuse for not voting.


I remember when MO used to be a swing state...

But that being said, I'm voting for Obama and McCaskill tomorrow.
 
2012-11-06 12:10:53 AM

Tigger: SouthParkCon: Mrtraveler01: SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.

Where are you getting that message from? 

It's just probability based on an aggregate of polls. Nothing nefarious or sinister about it.

Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.

Would you like to put some money on this with me? I'll give you 2-1 odds.


Sounds like you haven't done your homework. STUDY IT OUT
 
2012-11-06 12:10:53 AM
If Obama pulls this off I'm going to get righteously drunk and prank call some Republicans.
 
2012-11-06 12:10:59 AM

Mrtraveler01: mrshowrules: Silver on Colbert right now.

Loved Colbert's troll face when they showed that clip of Romney copying Colbert's Super PAC slogan.


When I heard Romney earlier today say, "a better tomorrow, tomorrow", I thought that sounds farking stupid. I completely forgot the title of Colbert's book. Reality is funnier than fiction.
 
2012-11-06 12:11:04 AM

I Like Bread: I WANT TO KNOW WHAT GARY JOHNSON'S CHANCES ARE


bernardguerrero.com
 
2012-11-06 12:11:12 AM

meat0918: Wow.

Just Wow.


I don't see any modified wooden toilet rollers.
 
2012-11-06 12:11:21 AM

Lenny_da_Hog: FreeRepublic is in denial, praying, and setting themselves up for continued anger this evening.


you mean it's a day that ends in a "y"
 
2012-11-06 12:11:26 AM

Bucky Katt: I Like Bread: I WANT TO KNOW WHAT GARY JOHNSON'S CHANCES ARE

Somewhere between diddly and squat


So you're saying there's a chance?
 
2012-11-06 12:11:32 AM
On an entirely unrelated note, the oil is about to hit the anus. So mine's staying puckered.

/fyi
 
2012-11-06 12:11:55 AM
GODDAMNIT FLORIDA PICK A farkING SIDE ALREADY!!!

/we're at war!
 
2012-11-06 12:12:14 AM
Today's NATE SILVER is the greatest threat the Statisticals has ever faced.
 
2012-11-06 12:12:46 AM
I will not relax until they call it. until then I still believe that the GOP will try to steal it.
 
2012-11-06 12:13:36 AM

5 star chef of tv dinners: ManateeGag: NowhereMon: WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?

Florida is on a knifes edge. It will almost certainly wind up in a recount, but at this rate it probably isn't needed for an Obama win.

neither is Ohio.

True but I think Obama is trying to take Ohio to just spite Romney. It isn't needed for him to win but it is very critical for Romney to win.


I assume this is a joke, but it would be stupid to pass up any competitive state. Obama's biggest advantage (even bigger than his poll numbers) is his many paths to victory. Ohio may not be needed, but having it means he can afford for something to go wrong in Virginia.
 
2012-11-06 12:13:54 AM

ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.


Yeah, if that was a strategy for Obama, to tank the first one so he could look strong in the next two, whoever gave him that strategy should be fired. That only works for candidates who are not strong speakers and not exactly impressive on facts and details. It worked brilliantly for Bush Jr, but that kind of strategy wouldn't work for, say, Cory Booker, Bobby Jindal, and didn't for Obama.
 
2012-11-06 12:14:04 AM

NuttierThanEver: tjfly: Harvey Keitel said something in Pulp Fiction that applies here.

I drive really fast?


Someday all this will be yours?
 
2012-11-06 12:14:14 AM

God's Hubris: Lenny_da_Hog: FreeRepublic is in denial, praying, and setting themselves up for continued anger this evening.

I got a dude on Facebook letting everyone know it's gonna be a 377 Romney landslide.


I have a friend who has gone bugfark insane lately. Nice enough dude, but keep him the hell away from politics. Asking how you make thermite the other day got me a little worried, but he gave me the "I'm a writer" excuse and I've researched weirder stuff myself for writing.
 
2012-11-06 12:14:38 AM

Coolfusis: The prospect of a Romney presidency farking terrifies me. Not in the sense that he'll do anything catastrophically horrible in his first term - but that it would be a sign from the voters to the GOP that you can lie, cheat, flip-flop, and just generally be dicks and we'll let you do it. Not only will we let you do it, we'll give you the keys to the highest office in the country.

What would that say about us?


It's difficult to imagine the depths that politics will sink to if the Romney strategy is successful.
 
2012-11-06 12:14:52 AM

Kevin72: mrshowrules: Silver on Colbert right now.

That's impossible, it's only 9:00.


When Colbet's is interviewing Silver. Silver talks about how is computer is running the new numbers in the green room. Consider yourself all caught up. I like Silver explaining that the math isn't even that complicated. I take 20 polls with 19 saying one thing and the conclusion is pretty obvious.
 
2012-11-06 12:15:06 AM

seventypercent: See, here's the thing. If I'm a pollster, and I'm in the tank for a certain political candidate, the absolute best thing that I can do for that candidate is to get my polls right. This idea that I'm going to manipulate the poll numbers to make the situation for "my candidate" seem better than it actually is makes no sense at all.


Here's the thing: In the wingnut welfare world, people are rewarded for doing the team's bidding, not for any type of insight or accuracy. It's why Dick Morris and Bill Kristol are multimillionaires and it's why Ann Coulter books are bestsellers yet available for free when you subscribe to Human Events.

Unable to comprehend that the rest of the world works differently, they think that Nate Silver got hid job with the Times by being in the tank for team blue. And that every pollster is paid by David Axelrod or something.

For being the party that is supposedly pro-business, they have zero idea how polling firms work.
 
2012-11-06 12:15:08 AM

Dr.Zom: If Obama pulls this off I'm going to get righteously drunk and prank call some Republicans.


at least try to be funny
 
2012-11-06 12:15:51 AM
Okay, it was a 344 Romney landslide, not 377. But still!
 
2012-11-06 12:15:55 AM

tjfly: Harvey Keitel said something in Pulp Fiction that applies here.


Move out of the sticks, gentlemen?
 
2012-11-06 12:16:01 AM

WI241TH: I'll wait for the polls to be unskewed and the statistical quirks to be harmonized thank you very much


Unskewed has put out a new projection,this one has Romney at 275 EV
http://www.unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012%20president_03. c fm
 
2012-11-06 12:16:13 AM

Solid Muldoon: NuttierThanEver: tjfly: Harvey Keitel said something in Pulp Fiction that applies here.

I drive really fast?

Someday all this will be yours?


Just because you are a character doesn't mean that you have character?
 
2012-11-06 12:16:26 AM

RminusQ: [24.media.tumblr.com image 850x611]

This is my prediction, based off of an amalgamation of 538, Electoral-Vote, Election Projection, a handful of other analysis sites, my own opinion, and an "I don't trust those bastards in charge" adjustment. My remark upon posting this to Tumblr:
Barack Obama 294-244. The tipping point is, of course, Ohio at Obama +1.5, but without Ohio, he could still win with Virginia or Colorado.


Yup. I think Obama foxed him a bit: Keep him tied up in Ohio and Florida, and take the easy pickings in heavily Hispanic Colorado and Nevada.
 
2012-11-06 12:16:46 AM

The Lone Gunman: ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.

Yeah, if that was a strategy for Obama, to tank the first one so he could look strong in the next two, whoever gave him that strategy should be fired. That only works for candidates who are not strong speakers and not exactly impressive on facts and details. It worked brilliantly for Bush Jr, but that kind of strategy wouldn't work for, say, Cory Booker, Bobby Jindal, and didn't for Obama.



I honestly think the problem with that debate was that the moderation was so bad and Romney was so much more aggressive than anyone was prepared for- shouting over the moderator, talking over the President, etc.

I think he probably intended not to go for the jugular in that debate because he was so far ahead that his game was not to say something that would become controversial, but it backfired.
 
2012-11-06 12:16:47 AM

Kevin72: WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?

That was my brother-in-law. I'm sure of it. He wasn't going to vote again for Obama. I guess change was too slow. But he must have snapped out of it at the last minute.


Tell him a grateful nation says "Thanks" then punch him in the arm for making that grateful nation worry about him voting for Romney.
 
2012-11-06 12:17:05 AM

SouthParkCon: Mrtraveler01: SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.

Where are you getting that message from? 

It's just probability based on an aggregate of polls. Nothing nefarious or sinister about it.

Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.


Nate Silver has NOTHING to gain by being wrong.
Nate Silver has LOTS to lose by being wrong.
 
2012-11-06 12:17:10 AM

seventypercent: Finally, Silver's credibility is on the line here. If he's ridiculously wrong, he will have shot it. I don't think he's willing to do that for some conspiracy theory about suppressing Republican vote. It just doesn't pass the smell test.


I agree with this point, but you're going to get reminded that Silver never actually made a prediction of a winner, just a forecast of odds for or against a certain candidate.

Personally, I find that to be a semantics-based argument, especially considering the current 92-8 spread. Nate and his supporters need to come to terms with the fact that his odds forecast is being interpreted as a prediction--as it should. Elections aren't games of chance where the winner is decided by random bouncing of ping pong balls. I've always used his quantitative odds numbers to form a more qualitative prediction in my mind: that, if turnout is normal, and if there isn't a massive widespread dismantling of ALL the polls, Obama will win. We're still dealing with if's, but they're manageable if's not dependent on chance.

I may be reading his site wrong and I may be putting him in a position he doesn't want to be in, but that's the reality of his forecasting model. If Romney wins there's going to be 'splaining to do, and rightfully so.
 
2012-11-06 12:18:08 AM

SouthParkCon: Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.


Since multiple and independent analyses are converging on the same answer (that Obama will win by a lot), what you really need to demonstrate is that someone using the same datasets and methodologies is predicting that Romney wins.

Even so, the weight of evidence points to an Obama victory according to mathematical analysis of polling data. Nothing too mysterious. Definitely not something you're going to transparently be able to manipulate to support whatever arbitrary view you hold.

If Obama doesn't end up winning, the problem doesn't lie with the mathematics, but with the quality of the source data (i.e. polling data).
 
2012-11-06 12:18:12 AM

mrshowrules: Mrtraveler01: mrshowrules: Silver on Colbert right now.

Loved Colbert's troll face when they showed that clip of Romney copying Colbert's Super PAC slogan.

When I heard Romney earlier today say, "a better tomorrow, tomorrow", I thought that sounds farking stupid. I completely forgot the title of Colbert's book. Reality is funnier than fiction.


Video goodness
 
2012-11-06 12:18:54 AM

austin_millbarge: WalkingCarpet: Coolfusis: Not in the sense that he'll do anything catastrophically horrible in his first term

I dunno, I'd be willing to bet that we'll be at war with Iran within six months of him taking office, that's what terrifies me.

As if there weren't other reasons, this alone is why Obama gets my vote. I'm not interested in again having that mildly uneasy feeling I had after 2000, and that utterly disgusted feeling I had after 2004. Fark that. No farking way those neocon pigs are running us into the ground again.


That's a huge part of why I voted for Obama last week. There are many reasons, but not wanting a land war in Asia is very high on the list (as is not being in any particular hurry to watch World War Three)
 
2012-11-06 12:19:29 AM

mrshowrules: Kevin72: mrshowrules: Silver on Colbert right now.

That's impossible, it's only 9:00.

When Colbet's is interviewing Silver. Silver talks about how is computer is running the new numbers in the green room. Consider yourself all caught up. I like Silver explaining that the math isn't even that complicated. I take 20 polls with 19 saying one thing and the conclusion is pretty obvious.


Thanks. I'm on west coast time and soon have to go to sleep because I will be a pollworker tomorrow 6am to 10pm.
 
2012-11-06 12:19:42 AM

Empty Matchbook: GODDAMNIT FLORIDA PICK A farkING SIDE ALREADY!!!

/we're at war!


I'm sure most of the urban locales are for Obama, but between the hicks in the swamps plus the Cuban expats who still have a chubby for Batista, it's throwing off the statisticals.
 
2012-11-06 12:21:50 AM
Nate Silver bases his model on polling. He doesn't factor in vote fraud. That's his Achilles heel.
 
2012-11-06 12:22:17 AM
The way you all talk about this is exactly the same as sports nerds talk about how football teams can get into the playoffs.  It's all just a big game to you.
 
2012-11-06 12:22:19 AM

Zeppo Nightshade: NowhereMon: WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?

Florida is on a knifes edge. It will almost certainly wind up in a recount, but at this rate it probably isn't needed for an Obama win.

Wait, I thought it was unconstitutional to do recounts in Florida


That was a special exception, and should not be used as precedent in future cases. No, I am not making this shiat up.
 
2012-11-06 12:22:43 AM

Empty Matchbook: GODDAMNIT FLORIDA PICK A farkING SIDE ALREADY!!!

/we're at war!


If it helps at all, I voted early and I got my hubby to vote for the first time. Both Obama.

AND I have my dad from leaning hard Republican to sitting the fence in VA. I brought up the square deal he lived through when he was young.

/goin' fishing tomorrow so I don't drive myself nuts watching the results
 
2012-11-06 12:22:57 AM

@fivethirtynate almost single-handedly justifies the existence of twitter and almost makes this election season bearable.

Is the map contracting? Is the map expanding? I ask the tectonic plates for guidance. Their reply shall take one thousand years.

- Nate Silver 2.0 (@fivethirtynate) November 5, 2012

@thestalwart @jazzshaw Mathematics exists without you, but can you exist without it? Who then is the light, and who is the shadow?

- Nate Silver 2.0 (@fivethirtynate) November 4, 2012

A man boasts to me of Momentum, his greatest invention. "To victory," he cries, taking flight. I light a candle from the wax of his wings.

- Nate Silver 2.0 (@fivethirtynate) November 3, 2012

More polls tonight from @ppppolls. Their raw numerals course through my algorithmic lungs. Carbon dioxide and contextuality is exhaled.

- Nate Silver 2.0 (@fivethirtynate) November 3, 2012
 
2012-11-06 12:22:59 AM

jsteiner78: http://www.unskewedpolls.com


Link

That's a HUGE downturn from where he was at Friday. 330 as I recall.
 
2012-11-06 12:23:08 AM

Kevin72: mrshowrules: Kevin72: mrshowrules: Silver on Colbert right now.

That's impossible, it's only 9:00.

When Colbet's is interviewing Silver. Silver talks about how is computer is running the new numbers in the green room. Consider yourself all caught up. I like Silver explaining that the math isn't even that complicated. I take 20 polls with 19 saying one thing and the conclusion is pretty obvious.

Thanks. I'm on west coast time and soon have to go to sleep because I will be a pollworker tomorrow 6am to 10pm.


Bummer shift. The big tippers are always the Friday night crowd.
 
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