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(The New York Times)   FiveThirtyEight's final numbers are in: 315.3 to 222.7 EVs for Obama and Romney giving the incumbent a 92.2% chance of victory to Romney's 7.8%   (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) divider line 379
    More: Followup, United States Senate, FiveThirtyEight, swing states, percentage change, Democrat majority, Democrats, program designer, mid-September  
•       •       •

4060 clicks; posted to Politics » on 05 Nov 2012 at 11:40 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-05 11:51:16 PM  
landslides of butthurt ahead
 
2012-11-05 11:51:18 PM  
If Nate Silver is correct, that just means the Democrats cheated and there was voter fraud and he's not a legitimate president so Romney didn't really lose.
 
2012-11-05 11:51:24 PM  
As a Central Floridian (Seminole County) I can only say that my area is littered with Romney signs and it scares the crap out of me. I've canvassed, I've called, I've put signs in my yard and multiple magnets and stickers on my car. In other words: I've tried to annoy as many Romney supporters in Seminole County as possible.

The good news is that Downtown Orlando is nothing by Obama signs, and I'm hoping that the lack of cell phone polling will help us doing a little surprise swing to blue. Well... lack of cell phone polling and a large rainbow flag flyin' population.

/nntawwt
 
2012-11-05 11:51:58 PM  

ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.


You sound too young to know about the 1969 Cubs. Or Mets.
 
2012-11-05 11:52:23 PM  
Silver on Colbert right now.
 
2012-11-05 11:52:51 PM  
Still too close.
 
2012-11-05 11:53:18 PM  

ManateeGag: cameroncrazy1984: ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.

:(

I'm a long suffering Mets fan myself.


Halloween's a bigger let down than being a Mets fan.
 
2012-11-05 11:53:19 PM  

SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.


Where are you getting that message from? 

It's just probability based on an aggregate of polls. Nothing nefarious or sinister about it.
 
2012-11-05 11:53:47 PM  
C'mon, has an effeminate man ever been right? In history?

I don't think so.
 
2012-11-05 11:53:58 PM  

SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.


Yes, Nate is such a DNC backer he accurately predicted their whooping in 2010 and didn't comment a word on it.
 
2012-11-05 11:54:41 PM  

Kevin72: ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.

You sound too young to know about the 1969 Cubs. Or Mets.


my comment is a reference to the 2007 season when they lost 12/17 and ended the season in second place and didn't make the playoffs.
 
2012-11-05 11:55:11 PM  

mrshowrules: Silver on Colbert right now.


Loved Colbert's troll face when they showed that clip of Romney copying Colbert's Super PAC slogan.
 
2012-11-05 11:55:15 PM  
Bullshiat. These polls don't account for that American Crossroads PAC commercial that kept playing during Sunday Night and Monday Night Football. The tide has turned.
 
2012-11-05 11:55:19 PM  

LockeOak: TV's Vinnie: [i49.tinypic.com image 360x270]

[quickpic.us image 400x300]


I farking love this image.
 
2012-11-05 11:56:41 PM  

DamnYankees: Nate Silver 2.0 @fivethirtynate
The Forecast and the Nowcast meet. I glimpse boundless realms in their penumbra. Meta-Romney holds a strong lead in the infrared states.


I think he needs to drown the sandworm now to pull aside the final curtains.
 
2012-11-05 11:57:06 PM  

ManateeGag: Kevin72: ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.

You sound too young to know about the 1969 Cubs. Or Mets.

my comment is a reference to the 2007 season when they lost 12/17 and ended the season in second place and didn't make the playoffs.


*cough cough*

2011 Boston Red Sox

*cough*
 
2012-11-05 11:57:13 PM  

Mrtraveler01: SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.

Where are you getting that message from? 

It's just probability based on an aggregate of polls. Nothing nefarious or sinister about it.


Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.
 
2012-11-05 11:57:13 PM  

dartben: Silver moved Ohio from likely to safe Obama and took it off the competitive states list.

He moved NE-2 from safe Romney to likely Romney and added it to the competitive states list.

That must have been one helluva move in the national polls.


It was... Just the Sunday polls listed this morning were 4 ties and 9 for Obama. Ohio especially is looking very blue...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney _ vs_obama-1860.html
 
2012-11-05 11:57:22 PM  

SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.


HawaiiE: landslides of butthurt ahead

 
2012-11-05 11:57:23 PM  
Maybe I missed it, but I'm disappointed that he didn't do one of his dissertation-length posts about why "Bu-bu-but the media said Carter was beating Reagan!" is BS. I'm sick of that tired-ass meme
 
2012-11-05 11:58:02 PM  
Silver is on Colbert right now. I love that geeky, hand swingin' little numbers man.
 
2012-11-05 11:58:14 PM  
Wow.

Just Wow.
 
2012-11-05 11:58:25 PM  

DamnYankees: Nate Silver 2.0 @fivethirtynate
The Forecast and the Nowcast meet. I glimpse boundless realms in their penumbra. Meta-Romney holds a strong lead in the infrared states.


encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com
 
2012-11-05 11:58:27 PM  
Silver seems like he might be gay, and therefore untrustworthy.
 
2012-11-05 11:58:58 PM  

Ali_the_Cat: As a Central Floridian (Seminole County) I can only say that my area is littered with Romney signs and it scares the crap out of me. I've canvassed, I've called, I've put signs in my yard and multiple magnets and stickers on my car. In other words: I've tried to annoy as many Romney supporters in Seminole County as possible.

The good news is that Downtown Orlando is nothing by Obama signs, and I'm hoping that the lack of cell phone polling will help us doing a little surprise swing to blue. Well... lack of cell phone polling and a large rainbow flag flyin' population.

/nntawwt


Go Patriots!
 
2012-11-05 11:59:04 PM  
Numbers have been updated.

Mitt Romney is now an 8% favorite. Mittmentum!!!
 
2012-11-05 11:59:44 PM  
I WANT TO KNOW WHAT GARY JOHNSON'S CHANCES ARE
 
2012-11-06 12:00:08 AM  

SouthParkCon: Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory?


Considering that he made a close-to-accurate prediction in 2008 (mixed up IN and MO) and accurately predicted the GOP dominating the Dems in 2010.

Sorry if I take him over some jackass on Fark and their gut feelings.
 
2012-11-06 12:00:15 AM  
24.media.tumblr.com

This is my prediction, based off of an amalgamation of 538, Electoral-Vote, Election Projection, a handful of other analysis sites, my own opinion, and an "I don't trust those bastards in charge" adjustment. My remark upon posting this to Tumblr:
Barack Obama 294-244. The tipping point is, of course, Ohio at Obama +1.5, but without Ohio, he could still win with Virginia or Colorado.
 
2012-11-06 12:00:18 AM  
He's a witch!

wrong thread?
 
2012-11-06 12:00:27 AM  

SouthParkCon: Mrtraveler01: SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.

Where are you getting that message from? 

It's just probability based on an aggregate of polls. Nothing nefarious or sinister about it.

Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.


cry moar.
 
2012-11-06 12:00:31 AM  
Nate is a giggler.
 
2012-11-06 12:00:31 AM  

SouthParkCon: Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.


RUSTLE ALL THE JIMMIES
 
2012-11-06 12:00:39 AM  

I Like Bread: I WANT TO KNOW WHAT GARY JOHNSON'S CHANCES ARE


0%
 
2012-11-06 12:01:04 AM  

SouthParkCon: Mrtraveler01: SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.

Where are you getting that message from? 

It's just probability based on an aggregate of polls. Nothing nefarious or sinister about it.

Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.


Would you like to put some money on this with me? I'll give you 2-1 odds.
 
2012-11-06 12:01:57 AM  

NuttierThanEver: Nate is a giggler.


He really is! I didn't see him giggle quite that much on Jon Stewart... he also used his hands a lot more. He seems like a sweet little geek.
 
2012-11-06 12:01:57 AM  

gayb: Silver seems like he might be gay, and therefore untrustworthy.


***looks at name***
***looks at post***

Sounds legit.
 
2012-11-06 12:02:04 AM  

gayb: Silver seems like he might be gay, and therefore untrustworthy.


I wouldn't turn my back on him...
 
2012-11-06 12:02:52 AM  

Lenny_da_Hog: FreeRepublic is in denial, praying, and setting themselves up for continued anger this evening.


I got a dude on Facebook letting everyone know it's gonna be a 377 Romney landslide.
 
2012-11-06 12:02:54 AM  

BSABSVR: It's almost statistical time.


I'm here, there's nothing to worry about.
 
2012-11-06 12:03:17 AM  
Given that the Republicans have purged voter rolls, cut back voting days in Democratic districts, failed to send ballots to those that requested them a month ago, passed laws saying your voter registration card wasn't good enough any more, and Mitt Romney's kid bought the voting machine company...

Obama in a landslide.

Americans are stupid. But we ain't that stupid.
 
2012-11-06 12:03:28 AM  

SouthParkCon: Mrtraveler01: SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.

Where are you getting that message from? 

It's just probability based on an aggregate of polls. Nothing nefarious or sinister about it.

Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.


So how is his math wrong, Dean?
 
2012-11-06 12:03:39 AM  

God's Hubris: Lenny_da_Hog: FreeRepublic is in denial, praying, and setting themselves up for continued anger this evening.

I got a dude on Facebook letting everyone know it's gonna be a 377 Romney landslide.


What do they do AFTER they are that wrong?

Is it like Fark Independents where they just pretend it never happened or do they do anything?
 
2012-11-06 12:03:50 AM  
No way man. Romney's going to win. He told me. He PROMISED me a job in the oil fields after a huge tax cut.

I'm speaking to the Manager.
 
2012-11-06 12:04:06 AM  

WalkingCarpet: Coolfusis: Not in the sense that he'll do anything catastrophically horrible in his first term

I dunno, I'd be willing to bet that we'll be at war with Iran within six months of him taking office, that's what terrifies me.


As if there weren't other reasons, this alone is why Obama gets my vote. I'm not interested in again having that mildly uneasy feeling I had after 2000, and that utterly disgusted feeling I had after 2004. Fark that. No farking way those neocon pigs are running us into the ground again.
 
2012-11-06 12:04:18 AM  
iChat happens when dems run amok and get reelected for decades? Greece. Detroit. Spain. Illinois. I'm voting for free shiat, I'm voting Obama.
 
2012-11-06 12:04:50 AM  

God's Hubris: Lenny_da_Hog: FreeRepublic is in denial, praying, and setting themselves up for continued anger this evening.

I got a dude on Facebook letting everyone know it's gonna be a 377 Romney landslide.


Awesome. Screencaps of his subsequent meltdown are required.
 
2012-11-06 12:05:16 AM  

ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.


shiat, I remember 1992 when Bush41 looked unbeatable as late as April or May. Yes, really.
 
2012-11-06 12:05:46 AM  
Harvey Keitel said something in Pulp Fiction that applies here.
 
2012-11-06 12:06:00 AM  

tjfly: iChat happens when dems run amok and get reelected for decades? Greece. Detroit. Spain. Illinois.


Janet! Dr. Scott! Rocky! Bullwinkle! CHIEF! MCCLOUD!
 
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