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(The New York Times)   FiveThirtyEight's final numbers are in: 315.3 to 222.7 EVs for Obama and Romney giving the incumbent a 92.2% chance of victory to Romney's 7.8%   (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) divider line 379
    More: Followup, United States Senate, FiveThirtyEight, swing states, percentage change, Democrat majority, Democrats, program designer, mid-September  
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4061 clicks; posted to Politics » on 05 Nov 2012 at 11:40 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-05 09:35:42 PM  
Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?
 
2012-11-05 09:36:24 PM  
He said in his tweet these numbers are not final. He has more polls to add.
 
2012-11-05 09:38:27 PM  
More new tweets:

There's been a pretty clear shift toward Obama in national polls. Based on most recent data, he may lead by 2-3% in popular vote.

Obama gained an average of 1.5 points between 12 national polls published today. Big sample sizes. That's a pretty big deal.


This is bad news for...
 
2012-11-05 09:42:03 PM  
Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.
 
2012-11-05 09:42:31 PM  

ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.


:(
 
2012-11-05 09:42:36 PM  
I'll wait for the polls to be unskewed and the statistical quirks to be harmonized thank you very much
 
2012-11-05 09:43:57 PM  
All this really reminds me of 2004.
 
2012-11-05 09:45:43 PM  

WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?


A majority of the recent polls there show an Obama lead. If Florida goes Democratic, I'm going to be shocked, and I'm really going to have to eat earlier comments that Obama would have been smart to abandon the state. It also shows Virginia relatively safe, in fact exactly as safe as Colorado.

By the way, the last YouGov survey? More than 36,000 likely voters, and gave Obama a 2% lead. I'm not sure what the MOE is for 36,000, but it's small, probably around 1%.
 
2012-11-05 09:47:17 PM  

DamnYankees: He said in his tweet these numbers are not final. He has more polls to add.


i48.tinypic.com
 
2012-11-05 09:47:24 PM  

WalkingCarpet: More new tweets:

There's been a pretty clear shift toward Obama in national polls. Based on most recent data, he may lead by 2-3% in popular vote.

Obama gained an average of 1.5 points between 12 national polls published today. Big sample sizes. That's a pretty big deal.

This is bad news for...

Bronco Bamma
 
2012-11-05 09:50:42 PM  
It's almost statistical time.
 
2012-11-05 09:51:49 PM  

flucto: All this really reminds me of 2004.


As confident as I am in numbers, I can't help but think there's going to be an awful lot of shenanigans tomorrow. I can say for the first time ever that I am actually worried about how this election will turn out.

The prospect of a Romney presidency farking terrifies me. Not in the sense that he'll do anything catastrophically horrible in his first term - but that it would be a sign from the voters to the GOP that you can lie, cheat, flip-flop, and just generally be dicks and we'll let you do it. Not only will we let you do it, we'll give you the keys to the highest office in the country.

What would that say about us?
 
2012-11-05 09:53:07 PM  

cameroncrazy1984: ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.

:(


I'm a long suffering Mets fan myself.
 
2012-11-05 09:54:12 PM  

Coolfusis: Not in the sense that he'll do anything catastrophically horrible in his first term


I dunno, I'd be willing to bet that we'll be at war with Iran within six months of him taking office, that's what terrifies me.
 
2012-11-05 09:54:46 PM  

Coolfusis: The prospect of a Romney presidency farking terrifies me. Not in the sense that he'll do anything catastrophically horrible in his first term - but that it would be a sign from the voters to the GOP that you can lie, cheat, flip-flop, and just generally be dicks and we'll let you do it.


Not to mention HE STILL HASNT RELEASED HIS TAX RETURNS. What the fark.
 
2012-11-05 09:58:44 PM  

WalkingCarpet: DamnYankees: He said in his tweet these numbers are not final. He has more polls to add.


MItt better not be packing any Samsonite or planning on taking Petey to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue anytime soon..
 
2012-11-05 09:59:25 PM  

WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?


Florida is on a knifes edge. It will almost certainly wind up in a recount, but at this rate it probably isn't needed for an Obama win.
 
2012-11-05 10:01:03 PM  

NowhereMon: WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?

Florida is on a knifes edge. It will almost certainly wind up in a recount, but at this rate it probably isn't needed for an Obama win.


neither is Ohio.
 
2012-11-05 10:02:19 PM  

ManateeGag: cameroncrazy1984: ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.

:(

I'm a long suffering Mets fan myself.


The only reason I'm still wearing my HI57ORY sweatshirt at this point is because I refuse to wear my Sabres one.
 
2012-11-05 10:04:46 PM  

WalkingCarpet: DamnYankees: He said in his tweet these numbers are not final. He has more polls to add.

[i48.tinypic.com image 319x197]


Well played.
 
2012-11-05 10:07:30 PM  

ManateeGag: NowhereMon: WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?

Florida is on a knifes edge. It will almost certainly wind up in a recount, but at this rate it probably isn't needed for an Obama win.

neither is Ohio.


I look at them this way: Romney can't win without Ohio, Florida and Virginia. There is no realistic scenario where he wins without carrying all three of those. Virginia appears to be slipping away, but Ohio will be held by endless Republican voter theft. But if Romney can't win Florida outright, he has no hope of taking the fourth state he needs with those three. And if he can't win Florida outright, he is very unlikely to win Virginia.
 
2012-11-05 10:08:31 PM  

ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.


c'mon. what about the Red Sox??
 
2012-11-05 10:09:24 PM  

ManateeGag: NowhereMon: WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?

Florida is on a knifes edge. It will almost certainly wind up in a recount, but at this rate it probably isn't needed for an Obama win.

neither is Ohio.


True but I think Obama is trying to take Ohio to just spite Romney. It isn't needed for him to win but it is very critical for Romney to win.
 
2012-11-05 10:14:46 PM  

thoughtpol: ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.

c'mon. what about the Red Sox??


I will point you to the 2007 season. hey lost 12 of their last 17 games.
 
2012-11-05 10:20:09 PM  

NowhereMon: WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?

Florida is on a knifes edge. It will almost certainly wind up in a recount, but at this rate it probably isn't needed for an Obama win.


Wait, I thought it was unconstitutional to do recounts in Florida
 
2012-11-05 10:24:47 PM  
I'm surprised to see Colorado go so blue. I've been watching it for a while and it's been hovering around 50-55% leaning Obama, but today he's showing 80.3% probability. That's a pretty big change in the last 30 days.
 
2012-11-05 10:28:22 PM  
New numbers, 315.3 to 222.7, with Romney at a 7.8% chance of winning.
 
2012-11-05 10:29:15 PM  
it went even further down in the last 3 hours?
 
2012-11-05 10:29:53 PM  

ManateeGag: it went even further down in the last 3 hours?


As of 25 minutes ago.
 
2012-11-05 10:42:04 PM  

ManateeGag: it went even further down in the last 3 hours?


New polls came in. He said he was waiting on a few more.
 
2012-11-05 11:32:24 PM  

ManateeGag: NowhereMon: WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?

Florida is on a knifes edge. It will almost certainly wind up in a recount, but at this rate it probably isn't needed for an Obama win.

neither is Ohio.


Ohio is in the nice to have category, if that falls, then it's all over by bedtime. I'm not counting on it, planning on a late night.
 
2012-11-05 11:43:15 PM  
FreeRepublic is in denial, praying, and setting themselves up for continued anger this evening.
 
2012-11-05 11:43:45 PM  

Coolfusis: flucto: All this really reminds me of 2004.

As confident as I am in numbers, I can't help but think there's going to be an awful lot of shenanigans tomorrow. I can say for the first time ever that I am actually worried about how this election will turn out.

The prospect of a Romney presidency farking terrifies me. Not in the sense that he'll do anything catastrophically horrible in his first term - but that it would be a sign from the voters to the GOP that you can lie, cheat, flip-flop, and just generally be dicks and we'll let you do it. Not only will we let you do it, we'll give you the keys to the highest office in the country.

What would that say about us?


And stuff like this is why we are freinds Cool. :)
 
2012-11-05 11:44:02 PM  
Silver moved Ohio from likely to safe Obama and took it off the competitive states list.

He moved NE-2 from safe Romney to likely Romney and added it to the competitive states list.

That must have been one helluva move in the national polls.
 
2012-11-05 11:44:51 PM  
Some researchers at Princeton have a nice little meta-analysis website:

Princeton Election Consortium

They have Obama 309 vs Romney 229, and probability of Obama re-elected: ~98.2-99.8%.
 
2012-11-05 11:45:08 PM  

WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?


hmmm, this afternoon it was leaning Romney. GOPers are going to be real pissed now.
 
2012-11-05 11:45:34 PM  
7.8% is too high a chance for a derp-flopper like Romney to win such a position of power and responsibility.
 
2012-11-05 11:46:28 PM  
Nate Silver doesn't account for election shenanigans and low turnout due to Sandy, does he? I think Ohio will narrowly go to Romney and there will be some surprises on the East Coast as well, but probably not for the presidential election.
 
2012-11-05 11:47:21 PM  

WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?


Hurricane State + Christie's Praise For Obama + Mitt's Privatize FEMA Comment = Obama Wins Florida
 
2012-11-05 11:48:06 PM  
Nate Silver 2.0 @fivethirtynate
The Forecast and the Nowcast meet. I glimpse boundless realms in their penumbra. Meta-Romney holds a strong lead in the infrared states.
 
2012-11-05 11:48:52 PM  

ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.


I remember this time when the Cubs nearly made it to the play offs.
 
2012-11-05 11:49:22 PM  

WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?


That was my brother-in-law. I'm sure of it. He wasn't going to vote again for Obama. I guess change was too slow. But he must have snapped out of it at the last minute.
 
2012-11-05 11:49:27 PM  
Awesome sauce. I do think Sandy was a big positive, albeit an unfortunate and unwanted one, for Obama. Not that he wasn't going to win it anyway, but it cemented what we finally saw in the second and third debates - this guy is a good President and knows what he is doing.

That said, I fully expect OH to get ripped away by way of incredible fraud. We need to do something about this shiat.
 
2012-11-05 11:49:57 PM  
With OH, FL, and VA on the east coast it may be an early night... Oh what am I thinking, the media will do their best to keep as many people up all night as they can. My guess is that it will be midnight eastern time before they'll "call it."
 
2012-11-05 11:50:06 PM  
Imagine what the numbers would look like if Obama had even displayed having pulse in the first debate instead of being an add for Ambien
 
2012-11-05 11:50:29 PM  
Slimer / Amy from Congo 2012!
 
2012-11-05 11:50:32 PM  
i49.tinypic.com
 
2012-11-05 11:50:45 PM  

skepticultist: WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?

Hurricane State + Christie's Praise For Obama + Mitt's Privatize FEMA Comment = Obama Wins Florida


Bill Clinton made several campaign stops here a couple of days ago. That Bubba is still one silver tongued devil.
 
2012-11-05 11:50:55 PM  

TV's Vinnie: [i49.tinypic.com image 360x270]


quickpic.us
 
2012-11-05 11:51:13 PM  
Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.
 
2012-11-05 11:51:16 PM  
landslides of butthurt ahead
 
2012-11-05 11:51:18 PM  
If Nate Silver is correct, that just means the Democrats cheated and there was voter fraud and he's not a legitimate president so Romney didn't really lose.
 
2012-11-05 11:51:24 PM  
As a Central Floridian (Seminole County) I can only say that my area is littered with Romney signs and it scares the crap out of me. I've canvassed, I've called, I've put signs in my yard and multiple magnets and stickers on my car. In other words: I've tried to annoy as many Romney supporters in Seminole County as possible.

The good news is that Downtown Orlando is nothing by Obama signs, and I'm hoping that the lack of cell phone polling will help us doing a little surprise swing to blue. Well... lack of cell phone polling and a large rainbow flag flyin' population.

/nntawwt
 
2012-11-05 11:51:58 PM  

ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.


You sound too young to know about the 1969 Cubs. Or Mets.
 
2012-11-05 11:52:23 PM  
Silver on Colbert right now.
 
2012-11-05 11:52:51 PM  
Still too close.
 
2012-11-05 11:53:18 PM  

ManateeGag: cameroncrazy1984: ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.

:(

I'm a long suffering Mets fan myself.


Halloween's a bigger let down than being a Mets fan.
 
2012-11-05 11:53:19 PM  

SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.


Where are you getting that message from? 

It's just probability based on an aggregate of polls. Nothing nefarious or sinister about it.
 
2012-11-05 11:53:47 PM  
C'mon, has an effeminate man ever been right? In history?

I don't think so.
 
2012-11-05 11:53:58 PM  

SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.


Yes, Nate is such a DNC backer he accurately predicted their whooping in 2010 and didn't comment a word on it.
 
2012-11-05 11:54:41 PM  

Kevin72: ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.

You sound too young to know about the 1969 Cubs. Or Mets.


my comment is a reference to the 2007 season when they lost 12/17 and ended the season in second place and didn't make the playoffs.
 
2012-11-05 11:55:11 PM  

mrshowrules: Silver on Colbert right now.


Loved Colbert's troll face when they showed that clip of Romney copying Colbert's Super PAC slogan.
 
2012-11-05 11:55:15 PM  
Bullshiat. These polls don't account for that American Crossroads PAC commercial that kept playing during Sunday Night and Monday Night Football. The tide has turned.
 
2012-11-05 11:55:19 PM  

LockeOak: TV's Vinnie: [i49.tinypic.com image 360x270]

[quickpic.us image 400x300]


I farking love this image.
 
2012-11-05 11:56:41 PM  

DamnYankees: Nate Silver 2.0 @fivethirtynate
The Forecast and the Nowcast meet. I glimpse boundless realms in their penumbra. Meta-Romney holds a strong lead in the infrared states.


I think he needs to drown the sandworm now to pull aside the final curtains.
 
2012-11-05 11:57:06 PM  

ManateeGag: Kevin72: ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.

You sound too young to know about the 1969 Cubs. Or Mets.

my comment is a reference to the 2007 season when they lost 12/17 and ended the season in second place and didn't make the playoffs.


*cough cough*

2011 Boston Red Sox

*cough*
 
2012-11-05 11:57:13 PM  

Mrtraveler01: SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.

Where are you getting that message from? 

It's just probability based on an aggregate of polls. Nothing nefarious or sinister about it.


Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.
 
2012-11-05 11:57:13 PM  

dartben: Silver moved Ohio from likely to safe Obama and took it off the competitive states list.

He moved NE-2 from safe Romney to likely Romney and added it to the competitive states list.

That must have been one helluva move in the national polls.


It was... Just the Sunday polls listed this morning were 4 ties and 9 for Obama. Ohio especially is looking very blue...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney _ vs_obama-1860.html
 
2012-11-05 11:57:22 PM  

SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.


HawaiiE: landslides of butthurt ahead

 
2012-11-05 11:57:23 PM  
Maybe I missed it, but I'm disappointed that he didn't do one of his dissertation-length posts about why "Bu-bu-but the media said Carter was beating Reagan!" is BS. I'm sick of that tired-ass meme
 
2012-11-05 11:58:02 PM  
Silver is on Colbert right now. I love that geeky, hand swingin' little numbers man.
 
2012-11-05 11:58:14 PM  
Wow.

Just Wow.
 
2012-11-05 11:58:25 PM  

DamnYankees: Nate Silver 2.0 @fivethirtynate
The Forecast and the Nowcast meet. I glimpse boundless realms in their penumbra. Meta-Romney holds a strong lead in the infrared states.


encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com
 
2012-11-05 11:58:27 PM  
Silver seems like he might be gay, and therefore untrustworthy.
 
2012-11-05 11:58:58 PM  

Ali_the_Cat: As a Central Floridian (Seminole County) I can only say that my area is littered with Romney signs and it scares the crap out of me. I've canvassed, I've called, I've put signs in my yard and multiple magnets and stickers on my car. In other words: I've tried to annoy as many Romney supporters in Seminole County as possible.

The good news is that Downtown Orlando is nothing by Obama signs, and I'm hoping that the lack of cell phone polling will help us doing a little surprise swing to blue. Well... lack of cell phone polling and a large rainbow flag flyin' population.

/nntawwt


Go Patriots!
 
2012-11-05 11:59:04 PM  
Numbers have been updated.

Mitt Romney is now an 8% favorite. Mittmentum!!!
 
2012-11-05 11:59:44 PM  
I WANT TO KNOW WHAT GARY JOHNSON'S CHANCES ARE
 
2012-11-06 12:00:08 AM  

SouthParkCon: Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory?


Considering that he made a close-to-accurate prediction in 2008 (mixed up IN and MO) and accurately predicted the GOP dominating the Dems in 2010.

Sorry if I take him over some jackass on Fark and their gut feelings.
 
2012-11-06 12:00:15 AM  
24.media.tumblr.com

This is my prediction, based off of an amalgamation of 538, Electoral-Vote, Election Projection, a handful of other analysis sites, my own opinion, and an "I don't trust those bastards in charge" adjustment. My remark upon posting this to Tumblr:
Barack Obama 294-244. The tipping point is, of course, Ohio at Obama +1.5, but without Ohio, he could still win with Virginia or Colorado.
 
2012-11-06 12:00:18 AM  
He's a witch!

wrong thread?
 
2012-11-06 12:00:27 AM  

SouthParkCon: Mrtraveler01: SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.

Where are you getting that message from? 

It's just probability based on an aggregate of polls. Nothing nefarious or sinister about it.

Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.


cry moar.
 
2012-11-06 12:00:31 AM  
Nate is a giggler.
 
2012-11-06 12:00:31 AM  

SouthParkCon: Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.


RUSTLE ALL THE JIMMIES
 
2012-11-06 12:00:39 AM  

I Like Bread: I WANT TO KNOW WHAT GARY JOHNSON'S CHANCES ARE


0%
 
2012-11-06 12:01:04 AM  

SouthParkCon: Mrtraveler01: SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.

Where are you getting that message from? 

It's just probability based on an aggregate of polls. Nothing nefarious or sinister about it.

Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.


Would you like to put some money on this with me? I'll give you 2-1 odds.
 
2012-11-06 12:01:57 AM  

NuttierThanEver: Nate is a giggler.


He really is! I didn't see him giggle quite that much on Jon Stewart... he also used his hands a lot more. He seems like a sweet little geek.
 
2012-11-06 12:01:57 AM  

gayb: Silver seems like he might be gay, and therefore untrustworthy.


***looks at name***
***looks at post***

Sounds legit.
 
2012-11-06 12:02:04 AM  

gayb: Silver seems like he might be gay, and therefore untrustworthy.


I wouldn't turn my back on him...
 
2012-11-06 12:02:52 AM  

Lenny_da_Hog: FreeRepublic is in denial, praying, and setting themselves up for continued anger this evening.


I got a dude on Facebook letting everyone know it's gonna be a 377 Romney landslide.
 
2012-11-06 12:02:54 AM  

BSABSVR: It's almost statistical time.


I'm here, there's nothing to worry about.
 
2012-11-06 12:03:17 AM  
Given that the Republicans have purged voter rolls, cut back voting days in Democratic districts, failed to send ballots to those that requested them a month ago, passed laws saying your voter registration card wasn't good enough any more, and Mitt Romney's kid bought the voting machine company...

Obama in a landslide.

Americans are stupid. But we ain't that stupid.
 
2012-11-06 12:03:28 AM  

SouthParkCon: Mrtraveler01: SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.

Where are you getting that message from? 

It's just probability based on an aggregate of polls. Nothing nefarious or sinister about it.

Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.


So how is his math wrong, Dean?
 
2012-11-06 12:03:39 AM  

God's Hubris: Lenny_da_Hog: FreeRepublic is in denial, praying, and setting themselves up for continued anger this evening.

I got a dude on Facebook letting everyone know it's gonna be a 377 Romney landslide.


What do they do AFTER they are that wrong?

Is it like Fark Independents where they just pretend it never happened or do they do anything?
 
2012-11-06 12:03:50 AM  
No way man. Romney's going to win. He told me. He PROMISED me a job in the oil fields after a huge tax cut.

I'm speaking to the Manager.
 
2012-11-06 12:04:06 AM  

WalkingCarpet: Coolfusis: Not in the sense that he'll do anything catastrophically horrible in his first term

I dunno, I'd be willing to bet that we'll be at war with Iran within six months of him taking office, that's what terrifies me.


As if there weren't other reasons, this alone is why Obama gets my vote. I'm not interested in again having that mildly uneasy feeling I had after 2000, and that utterly disgusted feeling I had after 2004. Fark that. No farking way those neocon pigs are running us into the ground again.
 
2012-11-06 12:04:18 AM  
iChat happens when dems run amok and get reelected for decades? Greece. Detroit. Spain. Illinois. I'm voting for free shiat, I'm voting Obama.
 
2012-11-06 12:04:50 AM  

God's Hubris: Lenny_da_Hog: FreeRepublic is in denial, praying, and setting themselves up for continued anger this evening.

I got a dude on Facebook letting everyone know it's gonna be a 377 Romney landslide.


Awesome. Screencaps of his subsequent meltdown are required.
 
2012-11-06 12:05:16 AM  

ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.


shiat, I remember 1992 when Bush41 looked unbeatable as late as April or May. Yes, really.
 
2012-11-06 12:05:46 AM  
Harvey Keitel said something in Pulp Fiction that applies here.
 
2012-11-06 12:06:00 AM  

tjfly: iChat happens when dems run amok and get reelected for decades? Greece. Detroit. Spain. Illinois.


Janet! Dr. Scott! Rocky! Bullwinkle! CHIEF! MCCLOUD!
 
2012-11-06 12:06:23 AM  

I Like Bread: I WANT TO KNOW WHAT GARY JOHNSON'S CHANCES ARE


Somewhere between diddly and squat
 
2012-11-06 12:06:43 AM  

SouthParkCon: Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.



I'm told statistical probability has a liberal bias.
 
2012-11-06 12:06:48 AM  

austin_millbarge: Fark that. No farking way those neocon pigs are running us into the ground again.

 
2012-11-06 12:07:24 AM  

SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.


I know that this is a popular theory among conservatives, but I just don't get it.

See, here's the thing. If I'm a pollster, and I'm in the tank for a certain political candidate, the absolute best thing that I can do for that candidate is to get my polls right. This idea that I'm going to manipulate the poll numbers to make the situation for "my candidate" seem better than it actually is makes no sense at all.

This would be like going to the doctor to get your blood pressure taken, and then telling the doctor to knock a few points off both numbers before he tells you the results. Guess what? If you have high blood pressure, you're better off knowing that it's high. Having your doctor massage the numbers before he gives them to you just to make you feel better about your health is not going to help you.

Similarly, if "my candidate" is down by two points in a state, it doesn't do anybody any good for me to fudge the numbers to make it look like he's up by two points. If "my candidate" is down by two points, then he or she needs that information so that informed and educated decisions can be made about how to allocate campaign funds, canvassing staff, advertisements, etc. That can only happen if the numbers that I'm reporting are as accurate as I can possibly make them.

The idea that skewed polls serve to demoralize and depress conservatives to keep them at home on election day has absolutely no basis in reality. If anything, these polls further energize conservatives to attempt to swing the balance back in Romney's favor. They even run the risk of causing Democrats to become complacent and say "Ehh, I'm not going to stand in line for two hours, Obama's got this."

I don't care what the projections and the polls say. If you're an Obama voter in a swing state and you haven't already voted, get your ass out there and vote tomorrow. Hell, if you're a Romney voter, you get your ass out there and vote as well. There's no excuse for not voting.

Finally, Silver's credibility is on the line here. If he's ridiculously wrong, he will have shot it. I don't think he's willing to do that for some conspiracy theory about suppressing Republican vote. It just doesn't pass the smell test.
 
2012-11-06 12:08:57 AM  

tjfly: Harvey Keitel said something in Pulp Fiction that applies here.


I drive really fast?
 
2012-11-06 12:09:01 AM  

mrshowrules: Silver on Colbert right now.


That's impossible, it's only 9:00.
 
2012-11-06 12:09:15 AM  

Tigger: God's Hubris: Lenny_da_Hog: FreeRepublic is in denial, praying, and setting themselves up for continued anger this evening.

I got a dude on Facebook letting everyone know it's gonna be a 377 Romney landslide.

What do they do AFTER they are that wrong?

Is it like Fark Independents where they just pretend it never happened or do they do anything?



I'm predicting copious amounts of election fraud accusations.
 
2012-11-06 12:10:16 AM  
i.imgur.com
 
2012-11-06 12:10:32 AM  

NuttierThanEver: tjfly: Harvey Keitel said something in Pulp Fiction that applies here.

I drive really fast?


Something about the coffee, I think.
 
2012-11-06 12:10:39 AM  

seventypercent: I don't care what the projections and the polls say. If you're an Obama voter in a swing state and you haven't already voted, get your ass out there and vote tomorrow. Hell, if you're a Romney voter, you get your ass out there and vote as well. There's no excuse for not voting.


I remember when MO used to be a swing state...

But that being said, I'm voting for Obama and McCaskill tomorrow.
 
2012-11-06 12:10:53 AM  

Tigger: SouthParkCon: Mrtraveler01: SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.

Where are you getting that message from? 

It's just probability based on an aggregate of polls. Nothing nefarious or sinister about it.

Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.

Would you like to put some money on this with me? I'll give you 2-1 odds.


Sounds like you haven't done your homework. STUDY IT OUT
 
2012-11-06 12:10:53 AM  
If Obama pulls this off I'm going to get righteously drunk and prank call some Republicans.
 
2012-11-06 12:10:59 AM  

Mrtraveler01: mrshowrules: Silver on Colbert right now.

Loved Colbert's troll face when they showed that clip of Romney copying Colbert's Super PAC slogan.


When I heard Romney earlier today say, "a better tomorrow, tomorrow", I thought that sounds farking stupid. I completely forgot the title of Colbert's book. Reality is funnier than fiction.
 
2012-11-06 12:11:04 AM  

I Like Bread: I WANT TO KNOW WHAT GARY JOHNSON'S CHANCES ARE


bernardguerrero.com
 
2012-11-06 12:11:12 AM  

meat0918: Wow.

Just Wow.


I don't see any modified wooden toilet rollers.
 
2012-11-06 12:11:21 AM  

Lenny_da_Hog: FreeRepublic is in denial, praying, and setting themselves up for continued anger this evening.


you mean it's a day that ends in a "y"
 
2012-11-06 12:11:26 AM  

Bucky Katt: I Like Bread: I WANT TO KNOW WHAT GARY JOHNSON'S CHANCES ARE

Somewhere between diddly and squat


So you're saying there's a chance?
 
2012-11-06 12:11:32 AM  
On an entirely unrelated note, the oil is about to hit the anus. So mine's staying puckered.

/fyi
 
2012-11-06 12:11:55 AM  
GODDAMNIT FLORIDA PICK A farkING SIDE ALREADY!!!

/we're at war!
 
2012-11-06 12:12:14 AM  
Today's NATE SILVER is the greatest threat the Statisticals has ever faced.
 
2012-11-06 12:12:46 AM  
I will not relax until they call it. until then I still believe that the GOP will try to steal it.
 
2012-11-06 12:13:36 AM  

5 star chef of tv dinners: ManateeGag: NowhereMon: WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?

Florida is on a knifes edge. It will almost certainly wind up in a recount, but at this rate it probably isn't needed for an Obama win.

neither is Ohio.

True but I think Obama is trying to take Ohio to just spite Romney. It isn't needed for him to win but it is very critical for Romney to win.


I assume this is a joke, but it would be stupid to pass up any competitive state. Obama's biggest advantage (even bigger than his poll numbers) is his many paths to victory. Ohio may not be needed, but having it means he can afford for something to go wrong in Virginia.
 
2012-11-06 12:13:54 AM  

ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.


Yeah, if that was a strategy for Obama, to tank the first one so he could look strong in the next two, whoever gave him that strategy should be fired. That only works for candidates who are not strong speakers and not exactly impressive on facts and details. It worked brilliantly for Bush Jr, but that kind of strategy wouldn't work for, say, Cory Booker, Bobby Jindal, and didn't for Obama.
 
2012-11-06 12:14:04 AM  

NuttierThanEver: tjfly: Harvey Keitel said something in Pulp Fiction that applies here.

I drive really fast?


Someday all this will be yours?
 
2012-11-06 12:14:14 AM  

God's Hubris: Lenny_da_Hog: FreeRepublic is in denial, praying, and setting themselves up for continued anger this evening.

I got a dude on Facebook letting everyone know it's gonna be a 377 Romney landslide.


I have a friend who has gone bugfark insane lately. Nice enough dude, but keep him the hell away from politics. Asking how you make thermite the other day got me a little worried, but he gave me the "I'm a writer" excuse and I've researched weirder stuff myself for writing.
 
2012-11-06 12:14:38 AM  

Coolfusis: The prospect of a Romney presidency farking terrifies me. Not in the sense that he'll do anything catastrophically horrible in his first term - but that it would be a sign from the voters to the GOP that you can lie, cheat, flip-flop, and just generally be dicks and we'll let you do it. Not only will we let you do it, we'll give you the keys to the highest office in the country.

What would that say about us?


It's difficult to imagine the depths that politics will sink to if the Romney strategy is successful.
 
2012-11-06 12:14:52 AM  

Kevin72: mrshowrules: Silver on Colbert right now.

That's impossible, it's only 9:00.


When Colbet's is interviewing Silver. Silver talks about how is computer is running the new numbers in the green room. Consider yourself all caught up. I like Silver explaining that the math isn't even that complicated. I take 20 polls with 19 saying one thing and the conclusion is pretty obvious.
 
2012-11-06 12:15:06 AM  

seventypercent: See, here's the thing. If I'm a pollster, and I'm in the tank for a certain political candidate, the absolute best thing that I can do for that candidate is to get my polls right. This idea that I'm going to manipulate the poll numbers to make the situation for "my candidate" seem better than it actually is makes no sense at all.


Here's the thing: In the wingnut welfare world, people are rewarded for doing the team's bidding, not for any type of insight or accuracy. It's why Dick Morris and Bill Kristol are multimillionaires and it's why Ann Coulter books are bestsellers yet available for free when you subscribe to Human Events.

Unable to comprehend that the rest of the world works differently, they think that Nate Silver got hid job with the Times by being in the tank for team blue. And that every pollster is paid by David Axelrod or something.

For being the party that is supposedly pro-business, they have zero idea how polling firms work.
 
2012-11-06 12:15:08 AM  

Dr.Zom: If Obama pulls this off I'm going to get righteously drunk and prank call some Republicans.


at least try to be funny
 
2012-11-06 12:15:51 AM  
Okay, it was a 344 Romney landslide, not 377. But still!
 
2012-11-06 12:15:55 AM  

tjfly: Harvey Keitel said something in Pulp Fiction that applies here.


Move out of the sticks, gentlemen?
 
2012-11-06 12:16:01 AM  

WI241TH: I'll wait for the polls to be unskewed and the statistical quirks to be harmonized thank you very much


Unskewed has put out a new projection,this one has Romney at 275 EV
http://www.unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012%20president_03. c fm
 
2012-11-06 12:16:13 AM  

Solid Muldoon: NuttierThanEver: tjfly: Harvey Keitel said something in Pulp Fiction that applies here.

I drive really fast?

Someday all this will be yours?


Just because you are a character doesn't mean that you have character?
 
2012-11-06 12:16:26 AM  

RminusQ: [24.media.tumblr.com image 850x611]

This is my prediction, based off of an amalgamation of 538, Electoral-Vote, Election Projection, a handful of other analysis sites, my own opinion, and an "I don't trust those bastards in charge" adjustment. My remark upon posting this to Tumblr:
Barack Obama 294-244. The tipping point is, of course, Ohio at Obama +1.5, but without Ohio, he could still win with Virginia or Colorado.


Yup. I think Obama foxed him a bit: Keep him tied up in Ohio and Florida, and take the easy pickings in heavily Hispanic Colorado and Nevada.
 
2012-11-06 12:16:46 AM  

The Lone Gunman: ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.

Yeah, if that was a strategy for Obama, to tank the first one so he could look strong in the next two, whoever gave him that strategy should be fired. That only works for candidates who are not strong speakers and not exactly impressive on facts and details. It worked brilliantly for Bush Jr, but that kind of strategy wouldn't work for, say, Cory Booker, Bobby Jindal, and didn't for Obama.



I honestly think the problem with that debate was that the moderation was so bad and Romney was so much more aggressive than anyone was prepared for- shouting over the moderator, talking over the President, etc.

I think he probably intended not to go for the jugular in that debate because he was so far ahead that his game was not to say something that would become controversial, but it backfired.
 
2012-11-06 12:16:47 AM  

Kevin72: WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?

That was my brother-in-law. I'm sure of it. He wasn't going to vote again for Obama. I guess change was too slow. But he must have snapped out of it at the last minute.


Tell him a grateful nation says "Thanks" then punch him in the arm for making that grateful nation worry about him voting for Romney.
 
2012-11-06 12:17:05 AM  

SouthParkCon: Mrtraveler01: SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.

Where are you getting that message from? 

It's just probability based on an aggregate of polls. Nothing nefarious or sinister about it.

Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.


Nate Silver has NOTHING to gain by being wrong.
Nate Silver has LOTS to lose by being wrong.
 
2012-11-06 12:17:10 AM  

seventypercent: Finally, Silver's credibility is on the line here. If he's ridiculously wrong, he will have shot it. I don't think he's willing to do that for some conspiracy theory about suppressing Republican vote. It just doesn't pass the smell test.


I agree with this point, but you're going to get reminded that Silver never actually made a prediction of a winner, just a forecast of odds for or against a certain candidate.

Personally, I find that to be a semantics-based argument, especially considering the current 92-8 spread. Nate and his supporters need to come to terms with the fact that his odds forecast is being interpreted as a prediction--as it should. Elections aren't games of chance where the winner is decided by random bouncing of ping pong balls. I've always used his quantitative odds numbers to form a more qualitative prediction in my mind: that, if turnout is normal, and if there isn't a massive widespread dismantling of ALL the polls, Obama will win. We're still dealing with if's, but they're manageable if's not dependent on chance.

I may be reading his site wrong and I may be putting him in a position he doesn't want to be in, but that's the reality of his forecasting model. If Romney wins there's going to be 'splaining to do, and rightfully so.
 
2012-11-06 12:18:08 AM  

SouthParkCon: Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.


Since multiple and independent analyses are converging on the same answer (that Obama will win by a lot), what you really need to demonstrate is that someone using the same datasets and methodologies is predicting that Romney wins.

Even so, the weight of evidence points to an Obama victory according to mathematical analysis of polling data. Nothing too mysterious. Definitely not something you're going to transparently be able to manipulate to support whatever arbitrary view you hold.

If Obama doesn't end up winning, the problem doesn't lie with the mathematics, but with the quality of the source data (i.e. polling data).
 
2012-11-06 12:18:12 AM  

mrshowrules: Mrtraveler01: mrshowrules: Silver on Colbert right now.

Loved Colbert's troll face when they showed that clip of Romney copying Colbert's Super PAC slogan.

When I heard Romney earlier today say, "a better tomorrow, tomorrow", I thought that sounds farking stupid. I completely forgot the title of Colbert's book. Reality is funnier than fiction.


Video goodness
 
2012-11-06 12:18:54 AM  

austin_millbarge: WalkingCarpet: Coolfusis: Not in the sense that he'll do anything catastrophically horrible in his first term

I dunno, I'd be willing to bet that we'll be at war with Iran within six months of him taking office, that's what terrifies me.

As if there weren't other reasons, this alone is why Obama gets my vote. I'm not interested in again having that mildly uneasy feeling I had after 2000, and that utterly disgusted feeling I had after 2004. Fark that. No farking way those neocon pigs are running us into the ground again.


That's a huge part of why I voted for Obama last week. There are many reasons, but not wanting a land war in Asia is very high on the list (as is not being in any particular hurry to watch World War Three)
 
2012-11-06 12:19:29 AM  

mrshowrules: Kevin72: mrshowrules: Silver on Colbert right now.

That's impossible, it's only 9:00.

When Colbet's is interviewing Silver. Silver talks about how is computer is running the new numbers in the green room. Consider yourself all caught up. I like Silver explaining that the math isn't even that complicated. I take 20 polls with 19 saying one thing and the conclusion is pretty obvious.


Thanks. I'm on west coast time and soon have to go to sleep because I will be a pollworker tomorrow 6am to 10pm.
 
2012-11-06 12:19:42 AM  

Empty Matchbook: GODDAMNIT FLORIDA PICK A farkING SIDE ALREADY!!!

/we're at war!


I'm sure most of the urban locales are for Obama, but between the hicks in the swamps plus the Cuban expats who still have a chubby for Batista, it's throwing off the statisticals.
 
2012-11-06 12:21:50 AM  
Nate Silver bases his model on polling. He doesn't factor in vote fraud. That's his Achilles heel.
 
2012-11-06 12:22:17 AM  
The way you all talk about this is exactly the same as sports nerds talk about how football teams can get into the playoffs.  It's all just a big game to you.
 
2012-11-06 12:22:19 AM  

Zeppo Nightshade: NowhereMon: WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?

Florida is on a knifes edge. It will almost certainly wind up in a recount, but at this rate it probably isn't needed for an Obama win.

Wait, I thought it was unconstitutional to do recounts in Florida


That was a special exception, and should not be used as precedent in future cases. No, I am not making this shiat up.
 
2012-11-06 12:22:43 AM  

Empty Matchbook: GODDAMNIT FLORIDA PICK A farkING SIDE ALREADY!!!

/we're at war!


If it helps at all, I voted early and I got my hubby to vote for the first time. Both Obama.

AND I have my dad from leaning hard Republican to sitting the fence in VA. I brought up the square deal he lived through when he was young.

/goin' fishing tomorrow so I don't drive myself nuts watching the results
 
2012-11-06 12:22:57 AM  

@fivethirtynate almost single-handedly justifies the existence of twitter and almost makes this election season bearable.

Is the map contracting? Is the map expanding? I ask the tectonic plates for guidance. Their reply shall take one thousand years.

- Nate Silver 2.0 (@fivethirtynate) November 5, 2012

@thestalwart @jazzshaw Mathematics exists without you, but can you exist without it? Who then is the light, and who is the shadow?

- Nate Silver 2.0 (@fivethirtynate) November 4, 2012

A man boasts to me of Momentum, his greatest invention. "To victory," he cries, taking flight. I light a candle from the wax of his wings.

- Nate Silver 2.0 (@fivethirtynate) November 3, 2012

More polls tonight from @ppppolls. Their raw numerals course through my algorithmic lungs. Carbon dioxide and contextuality is exhaled.

- Nate Silver 2.0 (@fivethirtynate) November 3, 2012
 
2012-11-06 12:22:59 AM  

jsteiner78: http://www.unskewedpolls.com


Link

That's a HUGE downturn from where he was at Friday. 330 as I recall.
 
2012-11-06 12:23:08 AM  

Kevin72: mrshowrules: Kevin72: mrshowrules: Silver on Colbert right now.

That's impossible, it's only 9:00.

When Colbet's is interviewing Silver. Silver talks about how is computer is running the new numbers in the green room. Consider yourself all caught up. I like Silver explaining that the math isn't even that complicated. I take 20 polls with 19 saying one thing and the conclusion is pretty obvious.

Thanks. I'm on west coast time and soon have to go to sleep because I will be a pollworker tomorrow 6am to 10pm.


Bummer shift. The big tippers are always the Friday night crowd.
 
2012-11-06 12:23:16 AM  

Bucky Katt: Dr.Zom: If Obama pulls this off I'm going to get righteously drunk and prank call some Republicans.

at least try to be funny


You've never bothered, why should I?

/wait by the phone
 
2012-11-06 12:23:21 AM  

SouthParkCon: Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.


Actually, yes, I'm willing to believe that Silver isn't as much of unprincipled piece of shiat as you are.
 
2012-11-06 12:23:35 AM  

The Great EZE: seventypercent: Finally, Silver's credibility is on the line here. If he's ridiculously wrong, he will have shot it. I don't think he's willing to do that for some conspiracy theory about suppressing Republican vote. It just doesn't pass the smell test.

I agree with this point, but you're going to get reminded that Silver never actually made a prediction of a winner, just a forecast of odds for or against a certain candidate.

Personally, I find that to be a semantics-based argument, especially considering the current 92-8 spread. Nate and his supporters need to come to terms with the fact that his odds forecast is being interpreted as a prediction--as it should. Elections aren't games of chance where the winner is decided by random bouncing of ping pong balls. I've always used his quantitative odds numbers to form a more qualitative prediction in my mind: that, if turnout is normal, and if there isn't a massive widespread dismantling of ALL the polls, Obama will win. We're still dealing with if's, but they're manageable if's not dependent on chance.

I may be reading his site wrong and I may be putting him in a position he doesn't want to be in, but that's the reality of his forecasting model. If Romney wins there's going to be 'splaining to do, and rightfully so.


The probabilities of either winning is dependent on state by state and national polling not farking up some where in their methodology. Since he's not savvy in that side of things, he account that it's possible that they farked up somewhere enough that their MOE is bigger than they're stating. If you want to see something akin to Fivethirtyeight that DOESN'T "hedge" in such a fashion, check out the Princeton Election Consortium Link, which has Obama at a 99.8% chance of winning. Also, check out this to get an idea of he differences between the various aggregators (Fivethirtyeight, PEC, etc etc)
 
2012-11-06 12:23:50 AM  

Notabunny: mrshowrules: Mrtraveler01: mrshowrules: Silver on Colbert right now.

Loved Colbert's troll face when they showed that clip of Romney copying Colbert's Super PAC slogan.

When I heard Romney earlier today say, "a better tomorrow, tomorrow", I thought that sounds farking stupid. I completely forgot the title of Colbert's book. Reality is funnier than fiction.

Video goodness


somebody on the Romney campaign has a good sense of humour and is pissed-off
 
2012-11-06 12:24:36 AM  

Triumph: Nate Silver bases his model on polling. He doesn't factor in vote fraud. That's his Achilles heel.

That and fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency...and an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope.
 
2012-11-06 12:24:51 AM  

whidbey: austin_millbarge: Fark that. No farking way those neocon pigs are running us into the ground again.

That.
 
2012-11-06 12:25:21 AM  

Triumph: Nate Silver bases his model on polling. He doesn't factor in vote fraud. That's his Achilles heel.


Even if you assume Romney could take 3 States by fraud, he still loses. I'm not worried.
 
2012-11-06 12:25:25 AM  

Granny_Panties: Today's NATE SILVER is the greatest threat the Statisticals has ever faced.


Bah. I've defeated worse.
 
2012-11-06 12:25:37 AM  

gravebayne2: I Like Bread: I WANT TO KNOW WHAT GARY JOHNSON'S CHANCES ARE

0%


That seems rather high. I'll wait for unskewedgravebayne2posts.com to update.
 
2012-11-06 12:25:40 AM  

Jiro Dreams Of McRibs: Kevin72: WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?

That was my brother-in-law. I'm sure of it. He wasn't going to vote again for Obama. I guess change was too slow. But he must have snapped out of it at the last minute.

Tell him a grateful nation says "Thanks" then punch him in the arm for making that grateful nation worry about him voting for Romney.


I can't punch him. He's like my twin from a different mother. My sister married a man born the same date, year, almost minute as I. It's endearing to me he could be undecided that close to the edge.
 
2012-11-06 12:26:08 AM  
And unless they are 100% accurate with zero errors then he's just as much guessing as everyone else.
 
2012-11-06 12:26:29 AM  

whidbey: austin_millbarge: Fark that. No farking way those neocon pigs are running us into the ground again.


 
2012-11-06 12:26:39 AM  

mrshowrules: When Colbet's is interviewing Silver. Silver talks about how is computer is running the new numbers in the green room. Consider yourself all caught up. I like Silver explaining that the math isn't even that complicated. I take 20 polls with 19 saying one thing and the conclusion is pretty obvious.


We're talking about a party that doesn't believe in set theory.
 
2012-11-06 12:26:41 AM  

phritz: A man boasts to me of Momentum, his greatest invention. "To victory," he cries, taking flight. I light a candle from the wax of his wings.


This one makes me feel tingly in my no-no spot.
 
2012-11-06 12:26:52 AM  

randomjsa: And unless they are 100% accurate with zero errors then he's just as much guessing as everyone else.


Late to the party, but good to see you.
 
2012-11-06 12:27:10 AM  

GWSuperfan: Granny_Panties: Today's NATE SILVER is the greatest threat the Statisticals has ever faced.

Bah. I've defeated worse.


Me too.
 
2012-11-06 12:27:20 AM  

SilentStrider: Bucky Katt: I Like Bread: I WANT TO KNOW WHAT GARY JOHNSON'S CHANCES ARE

Somewhere between diddly and squat

So you're saying there's a chance?


the Universe is huge and ridiculous and sometimes there are miracles
 
2012-11-06 12:27:34 AM  
Obama is gonna win. Deal With It.
 
2012-11-06 12:27:38 AM  
Voter fraud on both sides will likely be a wash. Obviously. Anyone who thinks one of the two major political parties in the US has a corner on the ethics market is f*cking delusional.
 
2012-11-06 12:27:51 AM  

Triumph: Nate Silver bases his model on polling. He doesn't factor in vote fraud. That's his Achilles heel.


Perhaps that's because vote fraud is virtually non-existant in this country.
 
2012-11-06 12:27:55 AM  
OMFG!! FARTBONGO'S CHANCES HAVE JUST NOW DROPPED A FULL 0.2% TO 92.0%, AND ROMNEY'S HAVE INCREASED TO 8.0%!! IT'S ROMNEY'S BIG COMEBACK!! SUCK IT, LIBTARDS!!
 
2012-11-06 12:28:14 AM  

randomjsa: And unless they are 100% accurate with zero errors then he's just as much guessing as everyone else.


Dude, your boy at unskewed moved Romney from 330 to 275. That's after he harmonized his statisticals.

Go stock up on ammo and canned goods or something.
 
2012-11-06 12:28:33 AM  

The Great EZE: seventypercent: Finally, Silver's credibility is on the line here. If he's ridiculously wrong, he will have shot it. I don't think he's willing to do that for some conspiracy theory about suppressing Republican vote. It just doesn't pass the smell test.

I agree with this point, but you're going to get reminded that Silver never actually made a prediction of a winner, just a forecast of odds for or against a certain candidate.


Fair enough, but it's not an all-or-nothing proposition. Silver projected 49 of 50 states correctly in 2008, and 34 of 36 Senate races correctly in 2010. We won't be looking at just the ultimate result of the election, but also how we got there.

For the record, I do think that comparing the 2008 record to whatever his 2012 record ends up being is a bit of an apples-and-oranges comparison; the 2008 election was not particularly competitive and the outcome was never really in doubt. This is a little bit different story, since it's a closer election and there are more states that really are tossups and could go either way.
 
2012-11-06 12:28:50 AM  

randomjsa: And unless they are 100% accurate with zero errors then he's just as much guessing as everyone else.


Only the Sith deal in absolutes
 
2012-11-06 12:29:11 AM  

Triumph: Nate Silver bases his model on polling. He doesn't factor in vote fraud. That's his Achilles heel.


No. By keeping his integrity, that is how fraud will be proven and John Husted will be jailed.
 
2012-11-06 12:29:24 AM  

Bucky Katt: SilentStrider: Bucky Katt: I Like Bread: I WANT TO KNOW WHAT GARY JOHNSON'S CHANCES ARE

Somewhere between diddly and squat

So you're saying there's a chance?

the Universe is huge and ridiculous and sometimes there are miracles


THERMODYNAMIC MIRACLES
 
2012-11-06 12:30:16 AM  

Cyberluddite: OMFG!! FARTBONGO'S CHANCES HAVE JUST NOW DROPPED A FULL 0.2% TO 92.0%, AND ROMNEY'S HAVE INCREASED TO 8.0%!! IT'S ROMNEY'S BIG COMEBACK!! SUCK IT, LIBTARDS!!


www.realclearsports.com
 
2012-11-06 12:30:44 AM  

SilentStrider: Bucky Katt: I Like Bread: I WANT TO KNOW WHAT GARY JOHNSON'S CHANCES ARE

Somewhere between diddly and squat

So you're saying there's a chance?


It would require a number of faithless electors and a screwed up House.

nyrkah1: SouthParkCon: Mrtraveler01: SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.

Where are you getting that message from? 

It's just probability based on an aggregate of polls. Nothing nefarious or sinister about it.

Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.

Nate Silver has NOTHING to gain by being wrong.
Nate Silver has LOTS to lose by being wrong.


I think you over-estimate how much he has to lose. I really don't think he would mind being pushed out of the mainstream media and I seriously doubt any statistically oriented group would even consider not welcoming him with open arms. If Romney won every state Nate would still be welcome in his old baseball circle.

That said, from everything I have seen of the man and read about and by him (including going back to stuff from his baseball days) he is in this for the numbers, not the politics. He isn't going to throw his stats and models under the bus. It seems like he got into politics because it was an empty space (on the statistical side) full of challenges not because he was wanting to influence the public or go mainstream. And he is already talking about leaving politics to try his statistics in another field.
 
2012-11-06 12:30:44 AM  
Do they sell Nelson Muntz yard signs?
 
2012-11-06 12:30:55 AM  
Don't celebrate just yet. If you haven't voted, vote. It doesn't matter if you're state is redder than a baboon's ass. The popular vote needs to be decisive.

A hardcore conservative I know was already hemming and hawing today about how obsolete the electoral college is. If Obama doesn't pull off a decisive electoral and popular vote victory, this will be the new talking point come Wednesday. 2000's goose meets 2012's gander.

This dude's pretty good at figuring out what the next outrage du jour will be.
 
2012-11-06 12:30:58 AM  

furiousxgeorge: Obama is gonna win. Deal With It.


24.media.tumblr.com
 
2012-11-06 12:30:58 AM  
Ann Coulter is now saying the polls are skewed because of the Bradley effect. I haven't heard that gem since 2008. She was actually making the case that Tea Partiers are afraid to say that they don't like Obama because they'll be branded racists.

Bless her heart.
 
2012-11-06 12:31:14 AM  

MFAWG: jsteiner78: http://www.unskewedpolls.com

Link

That's a HUGE downturn from where he was at Friday. 330 as I recall.


From the link:

This year's early voting [in Ohio] includes more than 576,000 Democrats to 492,000 Republicans. That margin is about 265,000 less than the larger margin by which Democrats dominated early voting four years ago in Ohio. That cancels the 262,000 vote margin by which Obama won Ohio four years ago. The election day voting in 2008 was won by McCain by 75,000 votes, who lost the state overall since Obama had won the early voting by more than 337,000 votes. Additionally, it is estimated that more than 350,000 evangelical Christians, who were primary supporters of Mike Huckabee in the 2008 primaries, did not turn out to vote for McCain in the general election.

...Chunky did things to math in that passage so vile that even Republican candidates are asking if it needs a ride to the clinic.
 
2012-11-06 12:32:49 AM  

Triumph: Nate Silver bases his model on polling. He doesn't factor in vote fraud. That's his Achilles heel.


Actually, he kind of does. Link

He frequently errs on the side of caution, and assumes that ALL polls are potentially off by a margin greater than the margin of error. It's why his percent chance of a Romney victory is 20 times higher than Wang's at the Princeton Election Consortium.
 
2012-11-06 12:33:07 AM  

gayb: Voter fraud on both sides will likely be a wash. Obviously. Anyone who thinks one of the two major political parties in the US has a corner on the ethics market is f*cking delusional.



Whoa. I was gonna vote Democrat, but now that you've told my both sides are bad, I don't know which party to vote for.
 
2012-11-06 12:33:21 AM  

randomjsa: And unless they are 100% accurate with zero errors then he's just as much guessing as everyone else.


You must work on Wall Street.
 
2012-11-06 12:33:24 AM  

randomjsa: And unless they are 100% accurate with zero errors then he's just as much guessing as everyone else.


You are playing the short game which is only going to make the long game harder. Admit Romney is going to lose and you can be the first derper on your block with any street cred. When you wake up tomorrow, you can no longer back-out. This is your last chance (I've decided) admit that you think Romney is going to lose and you will retain a shred of credibility. Otherwise, I can't protect you.

/I've been drinking
 
2012-11-06 12:33:50 AM  
Now that that's settled, what about Puerto Rico becoming a state? Cause, that's getting voted on tomorrow as well. Link
 
2012-11-06 12:34:01 AM  

Notabunny: randomjsa: And unless they are 100% accurate with zero errors then he's just as much guessing as everyone else.

Only the Sith deal in absolutes


Well, and the Jedi.
 
2012-11-06 12:34:09 AM  
2.bp.blogspot.com
 
2012-11-06 12:34:12 AM  

The Great EZE: ...Chunky did things to math in that passage so vile that even Republican candidates are asking if it needs a ride to the clinic.


There's nothing wrong with the math from a glance over, just his assumptions -- that those Huckabee supporters exist, that the fall in Democratic early voters means they won't vote on the day, that the rise in Republican early voters won't mean their vote share tomorrow won't drop.
 
2012-11-06 12:34:55 AM  

Curse of the Goth Kids: Tigger: SouthParkCon: Mrtraveler01: SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.

Where are you getting that message from? 

It's just probability based on an aggregate of polls. Nothing nefarious or sinister about it.

Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.

Would you like to put some money on this with me? I'll give you 2-1 odds.

Sounds like you haven't done your homework. STUDY IT OUT


How about you?
 
2012-11-06 12:35:13 AM  
Wow, seems odd for the predictions to change so much so quickly. If that actually ends up being the real electoral map at the end of the day tomorrow, Republicans are going to crap their pants. They've already more or less conceded a Romney loss by talking about how Obama would not have a "mandate" if he wins, but damn, that would be quite a mandate.
 
2012-11-06 12:35:14 AM  

furiousxgeorge: Obama is gonna win. Deal With It.


i.imgur.com
 
2012-11-06 12:35:48 AM  

Jiro Dreams Of McRibs: Kevin72: WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?

That was my brother-in-law. I'm sure of it. He wasn't going to vote again for Obama. I guess change was too slow. But he must have snapped out of it at the last minute.

Tell him a grateful nation says "Thanks" then punch him in the arm for making that grateful nation worry about him voting for Romney.


Actually i don't know if he was ever for Romney. It was in mid 2011 when he said he didnt want to vote for Obama again.
 
2012-11-06 12:35:53 AM  

Tax Boy: furiousxgeorge: Obama is gonna win. Deal With It.

[24.media.tumblr.com image 350x249]


Yeah, there's only one Avatar.

fc06.deviantart.net
 
2012-11-06 12:36:02 AM  

Boxcutta: Ann Coulter is now saying the polls are skewed because of the Bradley effect. I haven't heard that gem since 2008. She was actually making the case that Tea Partiers are afraid to say that they don't like Obama because they'll be branded racists.


She says that every four years because thats how often a Bradley is in her.

/wait? wut?
 
2012-11-06 12:36:19 AM  
Well, that's only a 7.8% higher chance than a heartless, worthless, only-here-because-his-daddy-left-him-money douche should have if this country were smarter.

I wouldn't trust Romney to run the fry machine at a McDonald's, so yeah, the presidency is out of the question. Maybe this asshat should get a job for once, and no, cushy upper management jobs at Bain and running for office don't count.
 
2012-11-06 12:36:48 AM  

Kevin72: Triumph: Nate Silver bases his model on polling. He doesn't factor in vote fraud. That's his Achilles heel.

No. By keeping his integrity, that is how fraud will be proven and John Husted will be jailed.


I agree. Poll aggregators like Nate are doing a public service - if the tallies tomorrow diverge too much from his forecasts they'll be probable cause to investigate fraud.

I'm actually reasonably confident that Obama will win Ohio. His polling in the last few days has been very good. A 4 or 5 percent margin (like in 2008) will be really hard to flip without raising obvious red flags.
 
2012-11-06 12:37:27 AM  

gayb: Voter fraud on both sides will likely be a wash. Obviously. Anyone who thinks one of the two major political parties in the US has a corner on the ethics market is f*cking delusional.


A wash?

On the Republican side: Governors. Secretaries of State. Heads of Election Commissions. The owners of voting machine companies.

On the Democratic side: That one lady who got caught.
 
2012-11-06 12:37:44 AM  

davidphogan: Now that that's settled, what about Puerto Rico becoming a state? Cause, that's getting voted on tomorrow as well. Link


If it's like the other 37 times they've tried this, I'm not expecting much.
 
2012-11-06 12:38:42 AM  

dywed88: SilentStrider: Bucky Katt: I Like Bread: I WANT TO KNOW WHAT GARY JOHNSON'S CHANCES ARE

Somewhere between diddly and squat

So you're saying there's a chance?

It would require a number of faithless electors and a screwed up House.nyrkah1: SouthParkCon: Mrtraveler01: SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.

Where are you getting that message from? 

It's just probability based on an aggregate of polls. Nothing nefarious or sinister about it.

Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.

Nate Silver has NOTHING to gain by being wrong.
Nate Silver has LOTS to lose by being wrong.

I think you over-estimate how much he has to lose. I really don't think he would mind being pushed out of the mainstream media and I seriously doubt any statistically oriented group would even consider not welcoming him with open arms. If Romney won every state Nate would still be welcome in his old baseball circle.

That said, from everything I have seen of the man and read about and by him (including going back to stuff from his baseball days) he is in this for the numbers, not the politics. He isn't going to throw his stats and models under the bus. It seems like he got into politics because it was an empty space (on the statistical side) full of challenges not because he was wanting to influence the public or go mainstream. And he is already talking about leaving politics to try his statistics in another field.


I'm glad you brought that part up, I had in mind to say something along those lines, but failed to. I get the feeling he really wants to be right on behalf of teh maths and statistics.
 
2012-11-06 12:38:59 AM  

The Great EZE: MFAWG: jsteiner78: http://www.unskewedpolls.com

Link

That's a HUGE downturn from where he was at Friday. 330 as I recall.

From the link:

This year's early voting [in Ohio] includes more than 576,000 Democrats to 492,000 Republicans. That margin is about 265,000 less than the larger margin by which Democrats dominated early voting four years ago in Ohio. That cancels the 262,000 vote margin by which Obama won Ohio four years ago. The election day voting in 2008 was won by McCain by 75,000 votes, who lost the state overall since Obama had won the early voting by more than 337,000 votes. Additionally, it is estimated that more than 350,000 evangelical Christians, who were primary supporters of Mike Huckabee in the 2008 primaries, did not turn out to vote for McCain in the general election.

...Chunky did things to math in that passage so vile that even Republican candidates are asking if it needs a ride to the clinic.


My dad was quoting these numbers to me yesterday, and seeing you post them made something click in my head.

For 4 years now there have been two separate realities in this country. We are finally coming back together tomorrow, and one of these realities is going to crash and burn.
 
2012-11-06 12:39:09 AM  

God's Hubris: gayb: Voter fraud on both sides will likely be a wash. Obviously. Anyone who thinks one of the two major political parties in the US has a corner on the ethics market is f*cking delusional.


Whoa. I was gonna vote Democrat, but now that you've told my both sides are bad, I don't know which party to vote for.


I don't care. I was referring to how predictions derived from polling data should probably remain unaffected by likely impossible-to-quantify fraud.
 
2012-11-06 12:40:05 AM  

Mrtraveler01: davidphogan: Now that that's settled, what about Puerto Rico becoming a state? Cause, that's getting voted on tomorrow as well. Link

If it's like the other 37 times they've tried this, I'm not expecting much.


Pretty sure they've only tried this three times before, and this time the latest poll I showed was 48% statehood with a +/- 3% margin of error.
 
2012-11-06 12:41:12 AM  
Just noticed that "unskewed" polls has dramatically tighten up their "predictions." Romney still wins of course.
 
2012-11-06 12:41:23 AM  

Solid Muldoon: gayb: Voter fraud on both sides will likely be a wash. Obviously. Anyone who thinks one of the two major political parties in the US has a corner on the ethics market is f*cking delusional.

A wash?

On the Republican side: Governors. Secretaries of State. Heads of Election Commissions. The owners of voting machine companies.

On the Democratic side: That one lady who got caught.


You're mindblisteringly delusional.
 
2012-11-06 12:42:11 AM  

Blue_Blazer: The Great EZE: MFAWG: jsteiner78: http://www.unskewedpolls.com

Link

That's a HUGE downturn from where he was at Friday. 330 as I recall.

From the link:

This year's early voting [in Ohio] includes more than 576,000 Democrats to 492,000 Republicans. That margin is about 265,000 less than the larger margin by which Democrats dominated early voting four years ago in Ohio. That cancels the 262,000 vote margin by which Obama won Ohio four years ago. The election day voting in 2008 was won by McCain by 75,000 votes, who lost the state overall since Obama had won the early voting by more than 337,000 votes. Additionally, it is estimated that more than 350,000 evangelical Christians, who were primary supporters of Mike Huckabee in the 2008 primaries, did not turn out to vote for McCain in the general election.

...Chunky did things to math in that passage so vile that even Republican candidates are asking if it needs a ride to the clinic.

My dad was quoting these numbers to me yesterday, and seeing you post them made something click in my head.

For 4 years now there have been two separate realities in this country. We are finally coming back together tomorrow, and one of these realities is going to crash and burn.


Nope. The reality that is but fiction will continue to be perpetrated.

ACORN did it. No, wait, the New Black Panthers scared off the good, hardworking voters who wanted to vote for Romney. 0vomit is a Kenyan usurper anyway, so he's not the legit president. Fast and Furious. Solyndra. Benghazi.

You know the Republican response to reality by now. Double down on the derp.
 
2012-11-06 12:42:25 AM  
justtray
--------------------------------------------------------------------- - ----------

Wow, reeks of Republican desperation in here.

Sorry girls, your hero Mitt has ZERO chance in reality world. Obama is gonna put up 300+ on him EASY.

Take it to the bank, I called it on Nov 5th, 2008. Go look it up.

Also, Obama is going to win the Pop vote as well. Keep on praying to your God or whatever other nonsense is telling you otherwise, won't matter a bit.


29 Oct 2012 07:21 PM
 
2012-11-06 12:42:57 AM  
Imagine the world Wednesday if Romney rolls that 20 and wins a squeaker. Not only can we look forward to Romney's policies being implemented, but Romney is rewarded for his naked avarice and willingness to say anything to win. Science takes another hit with the public. Bright minds like Wang and Silver are "discredited" while the likes of Coulter, Gingrich and even the unskewed-polls buffoon are "vindicated." Just think about that. Someone upthread said the unskewer is now predicting R 275. If Romney does win, that is probably going to be close to his actual EV total. That doofus would be able to ride that prediction for years.

What a nightmare to imagine. And even by Silver's projection, it could conceivably happen.
 
2012-11-06 12:43:00 AM  

SouthParkCon: Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle


The difference is he was right last time, more right than almost everyone else. He has history on his side, you have wishful thinking.
 
2012-11-06 12:43:12 AM  
Somehow, I still expect Romney to win in a electoral landslide in some Rovian election fixing grand strategy that is barely legal like an eighteen year old teen.
 
2012-11-06 12:43:15 AM  
Assuming that the polling is accurate and that there isn't any broad scale fraud, I am so going to gloat tomorrow night. I know it may be unseemly of me, but I'm still going to do whatever I can to rub it in. I've spent the last few years having to put up with people gloating about the tea party, gloating about passing state level same sex marriage bans, gloating about buying chick-fil-a, heck, gloating about the death of Americans in terror attacks, and you bet your sweet bippy that after all that, I'm going to gloat.
 
2012-11-06 12:43:37 AM  
because SOME polls are unskewed. lol

"Final Projection: Romney 275 electoral votes to Obama 263 electoral votes

The QStarNews projection of the 2012 presidential race sees Mitt Romney being elected the next president of the United States with 50.67 percent of the popular vote and 275 electoral votes to President Obama's 48.88 percent and 263 electoral votes.

QStarNews predicts the turnout nationally will includes 36.4 percent Democrats, 36.1 Republicans and 27.5 percent independents. QStarNews predicts turnout will rise by about four percent, or a total of about 131,165,384 voters including about 600,000 for third party candidates and the rest going to Romney and Obama."

unskewedpolls.com

oh, the reality! the huge manatee! either is correct but not unskewed polls
 
2012-11-06 12:43:37 AM  
Gayb

Fraud is difficult to quantify, but "both sides are bad" is a very simplistic analysis. For one, you'd look at what parties control the secretary of state's office - even if democrats would like to commit fraud in Ohio, they're not in a position to rig the voting machines. Also at how close it is to begin with - fraud tends historically to shift close states, although with voting machines maybe that's changed. It's possible to do an analysis, I'm sure.

That said, Silver uses historical data to compare polls with results, and fraud wasn't invented this election cycle. So barring some unprecedented, multi-state effort I think his projections will hold.
 
2012-11-06 12:43:51 AM  

statisticals: GWSuperfan: Granny_Panties: Today's NATE SILVER is the greatest threat the Statisticals has ever faced.

Bah. I've defeated worse.

Me too.


Way to stuff the toothpaste back in the tube.
 
2012-11-06 12:44:22 AM  

gayb: Solid Muldoon: gayb: Voter fraud on both sides will likely be a wash. Obviously. Anyone who thinks one of the two major political parties in the US has a corner on the ethics market is f*cking delusional.

A wash?

On the Republican side: Governors. Secretaries of State. Heads of Election Commissions. The owners of voting machine companies.

On the Democratic side: That one lady who got caught.

You're mindblisteringly delusional.


Really? Then show me some facts to prove me wrong. Real facts. Not Fox Facts.
 
2012-11-06 12:44:24 AM  

Solid Muldoon: gayb: Voter fraud on both sides will likely be a wash. Obviously. Anyone who thinks one of the two major political parties in the US has a corner on the ethics market is f*cking delusional.

A wash?

On the Republican side: Governors. Secretaries of State. Heads of Election Commissions. The owners of voting machine companies.

On the Democratic side: That one lady who got caught.


Governors and Secretaries of State can mess with the rules - but it isn't "vote fraud". Voting is a political process - people are always going to try to mess with it. And owners of voting machine companies? Sorry - throwing an election this way is very very difficult. What will end up screwing things up? Gross incompetence. Every time.

/take the tin foil hat off and back away from the computer dude
 
2012-11-06 12:44:41 AM  
justtray
--------------------------------------------------------------------- - ----------

So Nate thinks Obama is going to lose Florida, North Carolina, and Indiana probably, all states he won in 2008.

On top of that, a lot of states Obama won he has as near coin flips such as Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, Iowa, and Virginia.

Sorry, don't think this is very accurate unless you think Romney/unknown is somehow more popular than McCain/Palin. I will simply never believe that.


07 Jun 2012 02:30 PM
 
2012-11-06 12:44:56 AM  

rynthetyn: Assuming that the polling is accurate and that there isn't any broad scale fraud, I am so going to gloat tomorrow night. I know it may be unseemly of me, but I'm still going to do whatever I can to rub it in. I've spent the last few years having to put up with people gloating about the tea party, gloating about passing state level same sex marriage bans, gloating about buying chick-fil-a, heck, gloating about the death of Americans in terror attacks, and you bet your sweet bippy that after all that, I'm going to gloat.


If the republicans don't get smacked down in the house and senate, you might want to save your gloating.
 
2012-11-06 12:45:38 AM  

davidphogan: Pretty sure they've only tried this three times before, and this time the latest poll I showed was 48% statehood with a +/- 3% margin of error.


But if Puerto Rico becomes a state, then we will no longer have a total of 538 electoral votes, and so FiveThirtyEight will have to become something like FiveFortyOne and then nobody's bookmarks will work anymore and this will mean that the Whigs will automatically take control of the House, and you know what that means.
 
2012-11-06 12:47:13 AM  

tjfly: Harvey Keitel said something in Pulp Fiction that applies here.


Do you like oak Jimmy?
 
2012-11-06 12:47:33 AM  

The Great EZE: MFAWG: jsteiner78: http://www.unskewedpolls.com

Link

That's a HUGE downturn from where he was at Friday. 330 as I recall.

From the link:

This year's early voting [in Ohio] includes more than 576,000 Democrats to 492,000 Republicans. That margin is about 265,000 less than the larger margin by which Democrats dominated early voting four years ago in Ohio. That cancels the 262,000 vote margin by which Obama won Ohio four years ago. The election day voting in 2008 was won by McCain by 75,000 votes, who lost the state overall since Obama had won the early voting by more than 337,000 votes. Additionally, it is estimated that more than 350,000 evangelical Christians, who were primary supporters of Mike Huckabee in the 2008 primaries, did not turn out to vote for McCain in the general election.

...Chunky did things to math in that passage so vile that even Republican candidates are asking if it needs a ride to the clinic.


But it's got numbers in it, so it can't be wrong! That's what Dean learned from watching Nate: if you have numbers, you must be right. By the way, for all he talks about Ohio in that post, the tipping point in Unskewed's 275 projection is Colorado, which he has going Romney by 20,000 / 0.9%. Some nice comparisons from his previous projection (change the 03.cfm to 02.cfm):
Colorado: Was Romney +9.4%, now Romney +0.89%
Iowa: Was Romney +7.7%, now Obama +0.26%
Nevada: Was Romney +5.9%, now Obama +4.6%
New Jersey: Was Obama +1.3%, now Obama +7.7%
New Mexico: Was Romney +7.4%, now Obama +7.1%
Virginia: Was Romney +15.6%, now Romney +1.9% (he didn't even try to explain this one in his previous post)
 
2012-11-06 12:47:55 AM  

birdboy2000: Gayb

Fraud is difficult to quantify, but "both sides are bad" is a very simplistic analysis. For one, you'd look at what parties control the secretary of state's office - even if democrats would like to commit fraud in Ohio, they're not in a position to rig the voting machines. Also at how close it is to begin with - fraud tends historically to shift close states, although with voting machines maybe that's changed. It's possible to do an analysis, I'm sure.

That said, Silver uses historical data to compare polls with results, and fraud wasn't invented this election cycle. So barring some unprecedented, multi-state effort I think his projections will hold.


Completely reasonable. I agree that I was being simplistic, but with 100 million people involved, predicting a wash isn't that insane. Another way to say it is that the levels of fraud, even if horribly uneven, probably won't be any differently uneven this particular election cycle, which is in line with what you said as well.
 
2012-11-06 12:47:58 AM  

Hamilstan: Imagine the world Wednesday if Romney rolls that 20 and wins a squeaker.


www.command-post.org

What a squeaker might look like.
 
2012-11-06 12:48:04 AM  
i.imgur.com
 
2012-11-06 12:48:59 AM  

Omahawg: because SOME polls are unskewed. lol

"Final Projection: Romney 275 electoral votes to Obama 263 electoral votes

The QStarNews projection of the 2012 presidential race sees Mitt Romney being elected the next president of the United States with 50.67 percent of the popular vote and 275 electoral votes to President Obama's 48.88 percent and 263 electoral votes.

QStarNews predicts the turnout nationally will includes 36.4 percent Democrats, 36.1 Republicans and 27.5 percent independents. QStarNews predicts turnout will rise by about four percent, or a total of about 131,165,384 voters including about 600,000 for third party candidates and the rest going to Romney and Obama."

[unskewedpolls.com image 600x517]

oh, the reality! the huge manatee! either is correct but not unskewed polls


The saddest part of this, is that this unskewed guy is thinking that he can somehow salvage some credibility (income source) beyond tomorrow.
 
2012-11-06 12:49:01 AM  
Would it be awesome if:

lh6.googleusercontent.com

I don't know much about him, but just the spectacle the absolute media and political frenzy would be awesome. Sadly, its laughably improbable in this universe.
 
2012-11-06 12:49:02 AM  
images1.wikia.nocookie.net

I'm ready for you conservatives. Lets do this.
 
2012-11-06 12:49:19 AM  

seventypercent: davidphogan: Pretty sure they've only tried this three times before, and this time the latest poll I showed was 48% statehood with a +/- 3% margin of error.

But if Puerto Rico becomes a state, then we will no longer have a total of 538 electoral votes, and so FiveThirtyEight will have to become something like FiveFortyOne and then nobody's bookmarks will work anymore and this will mean that the Whigs will automatically take control of the House, and you know what that means.


Powder futures skyrocket?
 
2012-11-06 12:49:36 AM  

nmemkha: Would it be awesome if:

[lh6.googleusercontent.com image 400x618]

I don't know much about him, but just the spectacle the absolute media and political frenzy would be awesome. Sadly, its laughably improbable in this universe.

 
2012-11-06 12:50:22 AM  

jsteiner78: WI241TH: I'll wait for the polls to be unskewed and the statistical quirks to be harmonized thank you very much

Unskewed has put out a new projection,this one has Romney at 275 EV
http://www.unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012%20president_03. c fm


Wow. That's amazing.

Consider: You randomly added 3-8 points to your guy's poll numbers he *still* only ekes out a 5 EV victory.
 
2012-11-06 12:50:28 AM  

seventypercent: davidphogan: Pretty sure they've only tried this three times before, and this time the latest poll I showed was 48% statehood with a +/- 3% margin of error.

But if Puerto Rico becomes a state, then we will no longer have a total of 538 electoral votes, and so FiveThirtyEight will have to become something like FiveFortyOne and then nobody's bookmarks will work anymore and this will mean that the Whigs will automatically take control of the House, and you know what that means.


The Powder heavy portfolio will pay dividends to the Whigger investors?
 
2012-11-06 12:50:37 AM  
quickpic.us

Seems legit.
 
2012-11-06 12:50:58 AM  

I Like Bread: I WANT TO KNOW WHAT GARY JOHNSON'S CHANCES ARE


0.1% according to intrade

Link
 
2012-11-06 12:51:43 AM  
Vote here:
farm9.staticflickr.com 
hope the dog doesn't eat your ballot.
 
2012-11-06 12:51:45 AM  

SouthParkCon: Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.


So math has a liberal bias?
 
2012-11-06 12:52:13 AM  
Results in for those weirdos who vote at midnight.

Dixville (Butthead laugh) Notch: Romney 5, Obama 5 (2008 Results: Obama 15, McCain 6)

Hart's Location: Obama 23, Romney 9, Gary Johnson 1 (2008 Results: Obama 17, McCain 10, Ron Paul 2)
 
2012-11-06 12:53:49 AM  
I predict Obama will take the early lead tomorrow... Until Republicans get off work to go vote.
 
2012-11-06 12:54:52 AM  

SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.


Right, the statisticians are in the tank. Everyone knows math has a liberal bias!

(Uh, anyways, not sure how if he was pro-Obama, saying that Obama will win helps Obama win? Wouldn't that make more Democrats less likely to bother voting if their guy will win anyways?)
 
2012-11-06 12:55:17 AM  

tjfly: I predict Obama will take the early lead tomorrow... Until Republicans get off work to go vote.


herp derp, only republican's have jobs, derp derp derp.
 
2012-11-06 12:55:54 AM  
I'll say this for Nate Silver and Sam Wang: If their going to be wrong, they are REALLY going to be wrong.
 
2012-11-06 12:56:10 AM  

tjfly: I predict Obama will take the early lead tomorrow... Until Republicans get off work to go vote.


The fake Tim Tebow Twitter feed already used this joke today.
 
2012-11-06 12:56:13 AM  

Coolfusis: flucto: All this really reminds me of 2004.

As confident as I am in numbers, I can't help but think there's going to be an awful lot of shenanigans tomorrow. I can say for the first time ever that I am actually worried about how this election will turn out.

The prospect of a Romney presidency farking terrifies me. Not in the sense that he'll do anything catastrophically horrible in his first term - but that it would be a sign from the voters to the GOP that you can lie, cheat, flip-flop, and just generally be dicks and we'll let you do it. Not only will we let you do it, we'll give you the keys to the highest office in the country.

What would that say about us?


That for about the 10th or 12th time in our history, rampant corruption was a part of the election and helped decide the winner.

// My granddaddy was up all night in 1960 punching ballots for Kennedy. Had him a room full of his buddies doing the same.

None of this crap's new. Every election has cheating. How well and how often is the only issue in question. And whether its enough to matter.
 
2012-11-06 12:56:48 AM  

Hamilstan: Imagine the world Wednesday if Romney rolls that 20 and wins a squeaker. Not only can we look forward to Romney's policies being implemented, but Romney is rewarded for his naked avarice and willingness to say anything to win. Science takes another hit with the public. Bright minds like Wang and Silver are "discredited" while the likes of Coulter, Gingrich and even the unskewed-polls buffoon are "vindicated." Just think about that. Someone upthread said the unskewer is now predicting R 275. If Romney does win, that is probably going to be close to his actual EV total. That doofus would be able to ride that prediction for years.

What a nightmare to imagine. And even by Silver's projection, it could conceivably happen.


Thanks. I'm scarred for life.
 
2012-11-06 12:56:52 AM  

epocalypse: I'll say this for Nate Silver and Sam Wang: If their going to be wrong, they are REALLY going to be wrong.


Or it'll help point the finger at the rampant cheating that would have been, presumably, successful.
 
2012-11-06 12:57:09 AM  

epocalypse: I'll say this for Nate Silver and Sam Wang: If their going to be wrong, they are REALLY going to be wrong.


Wang more than Silver. Silver is fairly confident right now, but is still slightly paranoid that all the polls are wrong in their methodology which accounts for the 8% chance Romney is at.
 
2012-11-06 12:57:35 AM  

flucto: All this really reminds me of 2004.


*nods* we'll see, though.....
 
2012-11-06 12:57:38 AM  

Blue_Blazer: seventypercent: davidphogan: Pretty sure they've only tried this three times before, and this time the latest poll I showed was 48% statehood with a +/- 3% margin of error.

But if Puerto Rico becomes a state, then we will no longer have a total of 538 electoral votes, and so FiveThirtyEight will have to become something like FiveFortyOne and then nobody's bookmarks will work anymore and this will mean that the Whigs will automatically take control of the House, and you know what that means.

Powder futures skyrocket?


IT MEANS THAT WE GO TO WAR WITH THE COMANCHE NATION

Actually, I don't have the first farking clue about Whig policy and I'm too lazy to look it up, but IMHO the Comanche Nation has been begging for it for a long time now.
 
2012-11-06 12:57:48 AM  
Romney has a better chance at winning the election than McCain did in 2008. I think Romney is 200% better chance than McCain was back in 2008.

Also the Panthers beat the Redskins.
 
2012-11-06 12:57:52 AM  

seventypercent: Finally, Silver's credibility is on the line here. If he's ridiculously wrong, he will have shot it. I don't think he's willing to do that for some conspiracy theory about suppressing Republican vote. It just doesn't pass the smell test.


Have you ever considered that they are just projecting?
 
2012-11-06 12:58:19 AM  
We need a freeper follies thread. Their delusion is thick and smarmy.
 
2012-11-06 12:58:32 AM  

Generation_D: epocalypse: I'll say this for Nate Silver and Sam Wang: If their going to be wrong, they are REALLY going to be wrong.

Or it'll help point the finger at the rampant cheating that would have been, presumably, successful.


Also, this. In Silver's case, if states go further than even what Silver would consider possible, that would be reason enough to assume rampant fraud.
 
2012-11-06 12:58:46 AM  

Omahawg: because SOME polls are unskewed. lol

"Final Projection: Romney 275 electoral votes to Obama 263 electoral votes

The QStarNews projection of the 2012 presidential race sees Mitt Romney being elected the next president of the United States with 50.67 percent of the popular vote and 275 electoral votes to President Obama's 48.88 percent and 263 electoral votes.

QStarNews predicts the turnout nationally will includes 36.4 percent Democrats, 36.1 Republicans and 27.5 percent independents. QStarNews predicts turnout will rise by about four percent, or a total of about 131,165,384 voters including about 600,000 for third party candidates and the rest going to Romney and Obama."

[unskewedpolls.com image 600x517]

oh, the reality! the huge manatee! either is correct but not unskewed polls


What this map actually demonstrates is how dire Romney's chances really are. Obama has the election if he wins Florida or Virginia or Ohio or Colorado (all states where he leads in the polls, per Nate). Romney needs to pull off upsets in all four states.
 
2012-11-06 12:58:48 AM  

0Icky0: I'll be sharing this after the results come in...hope the guys on the right came close.
[img834.imageshack.us image 800x825]


What have we leaned today? That's Freudian.
 
2012-11-06 12:59:14 AM  

Boxcutta: Ann Coulter is now saying the polls are skewed because of the Bradley effect. I haven't heard that gem since 2008. She was actually making the case that Tea Partiers are afraid to say that they don't like Obama because they'll be branded racists.

Bless her heart.


Poor Thing...
 
2012-11-06 12:59:27 AM  
As a side note, I was very disappointed to find out Sam Wang's name is pronounced "Wong".

/yes, I'm 12 years old
 
2012-11-06 12:59:44 AM  

jsteiner78: WI241TH: I'll wait for the polls to be unskewed and the statistical quirks to be harmonized thank you very much

Unskewed has put out a new projection,this one has Romney at 275 EV
http://www.unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012%20president_03. c fm


Your farked up link just made me realize something. I bet that potato is using a pirated copy of Cold Fusion. I think I'm gonna report his ass to Adobe for shiats and giggles.
 
2012-11-06 01:00:28 AM  

nyrkah1: As a side note, I was very disappointed to find out Sam Wang's name is pronounced "Wong".

/yes, I'm 12 years old


WHAT!? God damn it.
 
2012-11-06 01:01:25 AM  
polls have closed in Dixville Notch, NH.

Obama 5
Romney 5

HORSE RACE!
 
2012-11-06 01:01:29 AM  

tjfly: I predict Obama will take the early lead tomorrow... Until Republicans get off work to go vote.


The problem is that a lot of polling places are in schools, which means Republicans won't know how to find them.
 
2012-11-06 01:02:20 AM  

Generation_D: My granddaddy was up all night in 1960 punching ballots for Kennedy. Had him a room full of his buddies doing the same.


Thanks for keeping Nixon from being shot, you ASSHOLE.
 
2012-11-06 01:04:24 AM  
Gary Johnson has a little of the Trololo guy vibe.

lh6.googleusercontent.comcache.blippitt.com
 
2012-11-06 01:04:54 AM  

epocalypse: I'll say this for Nate Silver and Sam Wang: If their going to be wrong, they are REALLY going to be wrong.


There actually isn't a single credible source providing a realist prediction of Romney winning. Silver's no genius. He is just a fairly clever guy surrounded by a bunch of people making absolutely no effort.

/excluding Sam Wang that is
 
2012-11-06 01:05:29 AM  

Coolfusis: flucto: All this really reminds me of 2004.

As confident as I am in numbers, I can't help but think there's going to be an awful lot of shenanigans tomorrow. I can say for the first time ever that I am actually worried about how this election will turn out.

The prospect of a Romney presidency farking terrifies me. Not in the sense that he'll do anything catastrophically horrible in his first term - but that it would be a sign from the voters to the GOP that you can lie, cheat, flip-flop, and just generally be dicks and we'll let you do it. Not only will we let you do it, we'll give you the keys to the highest office in the country.

What would that say about us?


That's the part that scares me the most - if "run the country aground" is the new "loyal opposition" standard, you're farked as a country.
 
2012-11-06 01:06:18 AM  

Solid Muldoon: Whatevs, dude. I'll see you here tomorrow night. Bring your crying towel.


It's funny that you think you've got me pegged as a supporter of either major political party.
 
2012-11-06 01:06:29 AM  

Somacandra: Generation_D: My granddaddy was up all night in 1960 punching ballots for Kennedy. Had him a room full of his buddies doing the same.

Thanks for keeping Nixon from being shot, you ASSHOLE.


I wasn't even born yet.

I tend to doubt the Mob / CIA / Cubans / Lee Harvey Oswald (see how I put him last out of everyone?) had any reason to be taking shots at Tricky Dick.
 
2012-11-06 01:07:12 AM  

Mike Chewbacca: What have we leaned today? That's Freudian.


Thanks. That was one reason to post it here first :-)
 
2012-11-06 01:07:38 AM  

ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.


I remeber I reading somewhere that the Romney surge was in a large part a result of polling firms switching from registered to likely voters in their polling methodology, which made Mitt's surge in the polls look a lot bigger than it really was. Did anyone else see anything to that effect? The Googles are doing nothing.
 
2012-11-06 01:09:10 AM  

ManateeGag: tjfly: I predict Obama will take the early lead tomorrow... Until Republicans get off work to go vote.

herp derp, only republican's have jobs, derp derp derp.


Both comments are idiotic. Votes don't get reported until the polls close.
 
2012-11-06 01:09:27 AM  

Coolfusis: flucto: All this really reminds me of 2004.

As confident as I am in numbers, I can't help but think there's going to be an awful lot of shenanigans tomorrow. I can say for the first time ever that I am actually worried about how this election will turn out.

The prospect of a Romney presidency farking terrifies me. Not in the sense that he'll do anything catastrophically horrible in his first term - but that it would be a sign from the voters to the GOP that you can lie, cheat, flip-flop, and just generally be dicks and we'll let you do it. Not only will we let you do it, we'll give you the keys to the highest office in the country.

What would that say about us?


That's been the fear all along.
 
2012-11-06 01:09:31 AM  

GWSuperfan: Granny_Panties: Today's NATE SILVER is the greatest threat the Statisticals has ever faced.

Bah. I've defeated worse.


Statisticals is people!!!
 
2012-11-06 01:09:38 AM  

INeedAName: tjfly: I predict Obama will take the early lead tomorrow... Until Republicans get off work to go vote.

The problem is that a lot of polling places are in schools, which means Republicans won't know how to find them.


And a lot are in churches, meaning Democrats won't be able to find them.
 
2012-11-06 01:10:05 AM  

TV's Vinnie: Empty Matchbook: GODDAMNIT FLORIDA PICK A farkING SIDE ALREADY!!!

/we're at war!

I'm sure most of the urban locales are for Obama, but between the hicks in the swamps plus the Cuban expats who still have a chubby for Batista, it's throwing off the statisticals.


Don't forget the crackers in north Florida. Remember, Florida is at least two different states, with the dividing line somewhere around a line drawn through Daytona Beach to Orlando.
 
2012-11-06 01:10:23 AM  

Generation_D: I wasn't even born yet.


It was intended as sarcasm. Never fear. Unlike Barack Obama, you possess no magical time machine.
 
2012-11-06 01:10:41 AM  
Fixed Spelling
img824.imageshack.us
 
2012-11-06 01:11:53 AM  

Modguy: Generation_D: epocalypse: I'll say this for Nate Silver and Sam Wang: If their going to be wrong, they are REALLY going to be wrong.

Or it'll help point the finger at the rampant cheating that would have been, presumably, successful.

Also, this. In Silver's case, if states go further than even what Silver would consider possible, that would be reason enough to assume rampant fraud.


Like 2004, Ohio?

Since no one will ever repeat 2000 in the 'fight to the death' department, .... anyway, the other part of that is the Cult of Polls.
 
2012-11-06 01:11:59 AM  
and thus romney learns campaigning 101: You want to peak on election day, not 6 weeks before at some debate.
 
2012-11-06 01:12:05 AM  

Omahawg: because SOME polls are unskewed. lol

"Final Projection: Romney 275 electoral votes to Obama 263 electoral votes

The QStarNews projection of the 2012 presidential race sees Mitt Romney being elected the next president of the United States with 50.67 percent of the popular vote and 275 electoral votes to President Obama's 48.88 percent and 263 electoral votes.

QStarNews predicts the turnout nationally will includes 36.4 percent Democrats, 36.1 Republicans and 27.5 percent independents. QStarNews predicts turnout will rise by about four percent, or a total of about 131,165,384 voters including about 600,000 for third party candidates and the rest going to Romney and Obama."

[unskewedpolls.com image 600x517]

oh, the reality! the huge manatee! either is correct but not unskewed polls


I actually buy that scenario, but with Colorado and/or Virginia blue.
 
2012-11-06 01:12:09 AM  

seventypercent: This idea that I'm going to manipulate the poll numbers to make the situation for "my candidate" seem better than it actually is makes no sense at all.


Though that leads someone to wonder what the fark Rasmussen is doing pulling the same old shiat election after election
 
2012-11-06 01:12:16 AM  

epocalypse: I'll say this for Nate Silver and Sam Wang: If their going to be wrong, they are REALLY going to be wrong.


epocalypse: I'll say this for Nate Silver and Sam Wang: If their going to be wrong, Ohio was frauded by Husted's last minute "tabulator experimental patch"


they are REALLY going to be wrong.


Fixed that for you
 
2012-11-06 01:12:20 AM  

Coolfusis: flucto: All this really reminds me of 2004.

As confident as I am in numbers, I can't help but think there's going to be an awful lot of shenanigans tomorrow. I can say for the first time ever that I am actually worried about how this election will turn out.

The prospect of a Romney presidency farking terrifies me. Not in the sense that he'll do anything catastrophically horrible in his first term - but that it would be a sign from the voters to the GOP that you can lie, cheat, flip-flop, and just generally be dicks and we'll let you do it. Not only will we let you do it, we'll give you the keys to the highest office in the country.

What would that say about us?


Well that's easy.

We're a nation that lives on American Idol, Honey Boo-Boo, and Jersey Shore.

We're a nation where people make contradictory statements 5 minutes apart, and the closest anyone comes to blinking is a comedian's comments on Comedy Central.

We're a nation where education, critical thinking, an interest in the facts, and solving problems are all vilified.

In short, we're a country of strung-out "reality show" junkie morons.

/ but we buy stuff
// whatever anyone tells us to buy
/// I have a CSB about slash no. 2, but that would be off-topic
 
2012-11-06 01:12:56 AM  
Maybe Mittens can be Presnidet of Amercia.

3.bp.blogspot.com
 
2012-11-06 01:13:08 AM  

Lenny_da_Hog: INeedAName: tjfly: I predict Obama will take the early lead tomorrow... Until Republicans get off work to go vote.

The problem is that a lot of polling places are in schools, which means Republicans won't know how to find them.

And a lot are in churches, meaning Democrats won't be able to find them.


And others in the NE will be portable trucks with national guard troops around them--and you know libs are allergic to guns and military.
 
2012-11-06 01:13:52 AM  

GitOffaMyLawn: We're a nation where people make contradictory statements 5 minutes apart


That's what an atheist Muslim would say, not a real American.
 
2012-11-06 01:14:29 AM  

The Bestest: polls have closed in Dixville Notch, NH.

Obama 5
Romney 5

HORSE RACE!


It was 10 votes and I realized I was a complete idiot for thinking that it mattered but I was relieved for half of them voting for Obama even thought they were predominately Republican in their Governor/Congress votes.
 
2012-11-06 01:14:59 AM  

tjfly: I predict Obama will take the early lead tomorrow... Until Republicans get off work to go vote.


Yes, you have Facebook. We get it. But do we have to see this TWO dozen times?
 
2012-11-06 01:15:11 AM  

Somacandra: And others in the NE will be portable trucks with national guard troops around them--and you know libs are allergic to guns and military.


All the liberals are *in* the military. You don't find Young Republicans there.
 
2012-11-06 01:16:18 AM  

tjfly: I predict Obama will take the early lead tomorrow... Until Republicans get off work to go vote.


At which point Obama will have a late lead.
 
2012-11-06 01:16:20 AM  

mrshowrules: HORSE RACE!


Or, in Romney's case, HORSE DANCE!!!1!
 
2012-11-06 01:18:35 AM  

nmemkha: Would it be awesome if:

[lh6.googleusercontent.com image 400x618]

I don't know much about him, but just the spectacle the absolute media and political frenzy would be awesome. Sadly, its laughably improbable in this universe.


I'm not sure which is dumber: you or the tagline on that poster
 
2012-11-06 01:18:58 AM  

fqhollis: Somacandra: And others in the NE will be portable trucks with national guard troops around them--and you know libs are allergic to guns and military.

All the liberals are *in* the military. You don't find Young Republicans there.


Impossible. I heard this from both Sean Hannity and Glenn Beck.
 
2012-11-06 01:21:29 AM  

INeedAName: tjfly: I predict Obama will take the early lead tomorrow... Until Republicans get off work to go vote.

The problem is that a lot of polling places are in schools, which means Republicans won't know how to find them.


Oh snap.
 
2012-11-06 01:21:47 AM  

The Bestest: polls have closed in Dixville Notch, NH.

Obama 5
Romney 5

HORSE RACE!


"In Hart's Location, the other New Hampshire town that enjoys first-vote status, Obama won with 23 votes, Romney received 9 and Libertarian Gary Johnson received 1 vote."
 
2012-11-06 01:23:11 AM  
Dick Morris called it 5 points in Romney's favor. Does he know something we don't?
 
2012-11-06 01:23:35 AM  

Generation_D: Coolfusis: flucto: All this really reminds me of 2004.

As confident as I am in numbers, I can't help but think there's going to be an awful lot of shenanigans tomorrow. I can say for the first time ever that I am actually worried about how this election will turn out.

The prospect of a Romney presidency farking terrifies me. Not in the sense that he'll do anything catastrophically horrible in his first

// My granddaddy was up all night in 1960 punching ballots for Kennedy. Had him a room full of his buddies doing the same.


Ummmm, NO! If you believe the happy horseshiat about Illinois being stolen by the dead voting in Chicago in 1960, you will also believe the 917 Romney lies that Rachel Maddow documented. Pure myth and sour grapes. No your granddaddy did not do that.
 
2012-11-06 01:23:54 AM  

Hamilstan: The Bestest: polls have closed in Dixville Notch, NH.

Obama 5
Romney 5

HORSE RACE!

"In Hart's Location, the other New Hampshire town that enjoys first-vote status, Obama won with 23 votes, Romney received 9 and Libertarian Gary Johnson received 1 vote."


AS GOES HART'S LOCATION!
 
2012-11-06 01:25:36 AM  

Harry_Seldon: Dick Morris called it 5 points toes in Romney's favor. Does he know something we don't?


FTFY
 
2012-11-06 01:26:01 AM  

Harry_Seldon: Dick Morris called it 5 points in Romney's favor. Does he know something we don't?


Yeah, what whore toe tastes like.
 
2012-11-06 01:27:32 AM  

Harry_Seldon: Dick Morris called it 5 points in Romney's favor. Does he know something we don't?


Well, he knows that hookers charge extra for toe play.
 
2012-11-06 01:29:55 AM  

SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.


Sounds good to me.
 
2012-11-06 01:30:32 AM  

Solid Muldoon: gayb: Solid Muldoon: gayb: Voter fraud on both sides will likely be a wash. Obviously. Anyone who thinks one of the two major political parties in the US has a corner on the ethics market is f*cking delusional.

A wash?

On the Republican side: Governors. Secretaries of State. Heads of Election Commissions. The owners of voting machine companies.

On the Democratic side: That one lady who got caught.

You're mindblisteringly delusional.

Really? Then show me some facts to prove me wrong. Real facts. Not Fox Facts.


That one lady who got caught was a Republican.
 
2012-11-06 01:35:25 AM  

Tigger: God's Hubris: Lenny_da_Hog: FreeRepublic is in denial, praying, and setting themselves up for continued anger this evening.

I got a dude on Facebook letting everyone know it's gonna be a 377 Romney landslide.

What do they do AFTER they are that wrong?

Is it like Fark Independents where they just pretend it never happened or do they do anything?


By this time on Wednesday, they will all claim to have voted for Gary Johnson. There will be so many who claim to have voted for him that if they actually had, he would have beaten Romney.
 
2012-11-06 01:36:59 AM  

Harry_Seldon: Dick Morris called it 5 points in Romney's favor. Does he know something we don't?


He knows which of the prostitute's toes he preferred to suck. We can only speculate.
 
2012-11-06 01:37:43 AM  
i25.photobucket.com

Severe weather warning: Hurricane Butthurt is expected to make landfall today. Residents in Colorado, Ohio, and Florida are to take extra precautions.
 
2012-11-06 01:40:49 AM  

BSABSVR: SouthParkCon: Mrtraveler01: SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.

Where are you getting that message from? 

It's just probability based on an aggregate of polls. Nothing nefarious or sinister about it.

Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.

So how is his math wrong, Dean?


Math changes for the pure of heart.
This is why heathen Greeks and Atheist Scientists think pi ~= 3.1415926 while the Bible states its TRVE value of 3.
 
2012-11-06 01:43:58 AM  
Oops, wrong thread. Well, it works here as well, I suppose.
 
2012-11-06 01:46:00 AM  
Add Hart's Location, NH to the list of libby-lib conspirators against Freedomness.
 
2012-11-06 01:48:50 AM  
I don't know if anyone remembers but Obama was stronger in VA in '08 than both OH and FL. The demographics of NoVA appear to have shifted democratic. Much like the migration of Massholes to coastal NH. The polling may be close but I'm more confident in Obama winning VA than even CO.
 
2012-11-06 01:58:44 AM  

MyEnamine: I don't know if anyone remembers but Obama was stronger in VA in '08 than both OH and FL. The demographics of NoVA appear to have shifted democratic. Much like the migration of Massholes to coastal NH. The polling may be close but I'm more confident in Obama winning VA than even CO.


I've got Obama winning VA and losing CO.

/OH is too much of a mess to even call.
 
2012-11-06 01:58:57 AM  
In my view, this is the best map I can see Romney winning with. And this is what I think will happen.
 
2012-11-06 02:08:06 AM  

propasaurus: Tigger: God's Hubris: Lenny_da_Hog: FreeRepublic is in denial, praying, and setting themselves up for continued anger this evening.

I got a dude on Facebook letting everyone know it's gonna be a 377 Romney landslide.

What do they do AFTER they are that wrong?

Is it like Fark Independents where they just pretend it never happened or do they do anything?

By this time on Wednesday, they will all claim to have voted for Gary Johnson. There will be so many who claim to have voted for him that if they actually had, he would have beaten Romney.


The local Tea Party meeting at the diner the other morning had the Teabaggers saying "They're both clowns! We're gonna vote for Romney, just so we can vote him out in four years!"

Honest-to-God.
 
2012-11-06 02:11:08 AM  

Boxcutta: Ann Coulter is now saying the polls are skewed because of the Bradley effect. I haven't heard that gem since 2008. She was actually making the case that Tea Partiers are afraid to say that they don't like Obama because they'll be branded racists.

Bless her heart.


That sounds retarded
 
2012-11-06 02:11:51 AM  
By the way, isn't Hart's Location a totally cool name? Makes me think of Arthur C. Clarke's Tales From the White Hart.
 
2012-11-06 02:13:44 AM  
Poor Nate - he never anticipated this:

http://romneymegaprayer.com/
 
2012-11-06 02:15:26 AM  

MyEnamine: In my view, this is the best map I can see Romney winning with. And this is what I think will happen.


Both of which seem pretty reasonable.
 
2012-11-06 02:18:43 AM  

Triumph: Poor Nate - he never anticipated this:
http://romneymegaprayer.com/


I told them I would pray.
My email... romneyisam­o­rmo­n­y­ou­idi­o­ts[nospam-﹫-backwards]li­amg­*com
 
2012-11-06 02:26:50 AM  

0Icky0: http://romneymegaprayer.com/


... Is this a joke?
 
2012-11-06 02:29:07 AM  

0Icky0: GitOffaMyLawn: We're a nation where people make contradictory statements 5 minutes apart

That's what an atheist Muslim would say, not a real American.


Nah, but it might be what a Taoist Christian would say.

/ would you believe a mystic existential Christian?
// how about I just sell you a bridge
 
2012-11-06 02:33:12 AM  

James F. Campbell: ... Is this a joke?


As opposed to what? The Romney candidacy or Christianity?
If it is, it's in good company.
 
2012-11-06 02:36:14 AM  
It's going to take a lot of voter suppression and election fraud for Republicans to close that kind of gap.
 
2012-11-06 02:47:52 AM  

Blue_Blazer: whidbey: austin_millbarge: Fark that. No farking way those neocon pigs are running us into the ground again.


In a nutshell. I really hope this is the American people's response to the Koch Brothering and the rising tide to slide all boats to the right. Shiat, I don't care what you think about Obama.
 
2012-11-06 03:03:27 AM  
This election is over. The freepers are already celebrating their victory.

http://www.natesilverwaswrong.com/
 
2012-11-06 03:03:37 AM  

SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.


Because math hates republicans.
 
2012-11-06 03:08:53 AM  

skepticultist: WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?

Hurricane State + Christie's Praise For Obama + Mitt's Privatize FEMA Comment = Obama Wins Florida


I agree about the hurricane state. I am really surprised that Romney wasn't more worried.
 
2012-11-06 03:10:40 AM  

ilambiquated: This election is over. The freepers are already celebrating their victory.

http://www.natesilverwaswrong.com/


Sh*t. And here I was squatting on natesilverisacommie.org. I wonder if I can get my money back?
 
2012-11-06 03:14:39 AM  

ilambiquated: This election is over. The freepers are already celebrating their victory.

http://www.natesilverwaswrong.com/


Lets just see if we can't figure this out.

Whois gives us Godaddy. No help there.

IP is http://50.63.188.66/

Which pops Atlassurvivalshelters.com

Designed and hosted by: http://www.cmlmediagroup.com/

Great troll or greatest troll?
 
2012-11-06 03:14:42 AM  
A few months ago I was predicting 40 states would go for Mr. Obama. I might turn out to be wrong.

However, I am pleased the campaign FINALLY got around to acknowledging the donation I snail-mailed to them. Took ya long enough, guys!
 
2012-11-06 03:15:43 AM  
2.bp.blogspot.com
 
2012-11-06 03:22:11 AM  

whidbey: ilambiquated: This election is over. The freepers are already celebrating their victory.

http://www.natesilverwaswrong.com/

Sh*t. And here I was squatting on natesilverisacommie.org. I wonder if I can get my money back?


Maybe Romney will give you a tax break when he's president.
 
2012-11-06 03:59:48 AM  
It seems as though Republicans only became aware of Nate Silver this election cycle. I don't recall this kind of vitriole in '08.
 
2012-11-06 04:28:50 AM  

cameroncrazy1984: ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.

:(


Don't worry. The Ny Mets are my favorite squadron.
 
2012-11-06 04:32:51 AM  
My prediction 332 to 205 Obama. I was pretty close last time, I'll see this time.
 
2012-11-06 04:40:18 AM  

randomjsa: And unless they are 100% accurate with zero errors then he's just as much guessing as everyone else.


And just to show that anything can happen; You are (almost) correct!
Nate Silver only analyzes poll data. His predictions are only as good as the polling. He is not making any guesses here, only crunching what the polling numbers say overall.
/That being said, even if the polls are even 75% correct- Obama still wins. This is why you are not really correct.
//Funny thing about Silver's methodology is that if Romney somehow wins the day, Nate Silver still is not wrong. His predictions include a possible Romney victory. 8% chance of it! That's one in 12.5 odds. Somebody get me a 12.5 sided die and let's see how comfortable that feels considering what is on the line.
 
2012-11-06 04:52:53 AM  
a3.ec-images.myspacecdn.com
 
2012-11-06 04:57:13 AM  

Scorpitron is reduced to a thin red paste: NuttierThanEver: tjfly: Harvey Keitel said something in Pulp Fiction that applies here.

I drive really fast?

Something about the coffee, I think.



sphotos.xx.fbcdn.net

"Mmm."
 
2012-11-06 05:04:56 AM  
And now, on to getting the 51 polls that actually matter, and the final collapse of Schrödinger's candidate.
 
2012-11-06 05:08:14 AM  
www.unskewedpolls.com
 
2012-11-06 05:11:38 AM  

epoch_destroi: [www.unskewedpolls.com image 600x517]


Ha! I see what you did there.
 
2012-11-06 05:17:43 AM  

Zeppo Nightshade: NowhereMon: WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?

Florida is on a knifes edge. It will almost certainly wind up in a recount, but at this rate it probably isn't needed for an Obama win.

Wait, I thought it was unconstitutional to do recounts in Florida


Only if the Republicans are leading before the recount, if the Democrats are winning it, any amount of recounts are allowed until the correct result can finally be achieved one way or another.
 
2012-11-06 05:24:13 AM  

xria: Zeppo Nightshade: NowhereMon: WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?

Florida is on a knifes edge. It will almost certainly wind up in a recount, but at this rate it probably isn't needed for an Obama win.

Wait, I thought it was unconstitutional to do recounts in Florida

Only if the Republicans are leading before the recount, if the Democrats are winning it, any amount of recounts are allowed until the correct result can finally be achieved one way or another.


At least we know what happens when FAS babbies grow up and get access to the internet when they get a weekend pass from the asylum where they're considered a legitimate risk to all the livestock in the area.
 
2012-11-06 05:39:27 AM  

Cubansaltyballs: xria: Zeppo Nightshade: NowhereMon: WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?

Florida is on a knifes edge. It will almost certainly wind up in a recount, but at this rate it probably isn't needed for an Obama win.

Wait, I thought it was unconstitutional to do recounts in Florida

Only if the Republicans are leading before the recount, if the Democrats are winning it, any amount of recounts are allowed until the correct result can finally be achieved one way or another.

At least we know what happens when FAS babbies grow up and get access to the internet when they get a weekend pass from the asylum where they're considered a legitimate risk to all the livestock in the area.


They write run-on sentences?
 
2012-11-06 05:43:57 AM  

bigbadideasinaction: That's the part that scares me the most - if "run the country aground" is the new "loyal opposition" standard, you're farked as a country.


Especially as the Republicans don't seem to be changing for the better any time soon, and the natural order in a democracy is for things to swing back to the opposition sooner or later no matter how bad they are (after a while everything they did last time they were in power gets forgotten, while the party in power is constantly blamed for doing stuff - even if 99% of it is good, people concentrate on the bad parts they don't like). Of course this is especially true in the US where the President is blamed for stuff the legislature does, even if it is the opposition party working with a veto proof majority.
 
2012-11-06 05:48:45 AM  

Modguy: Triumph: Nate Silver bases his model on polling. He doesn't factor in vote fraud. That's his Achilles heel.

Actually, he kind of does. Link

He frequently errs on the side of caution, and assumes that ALL polls are potentially off by a margin greater than the margin of error. It's why his percent chance of a Romney victory is 20 times higher than Wang's at the Princeton Election Consortium.


5% of the time polls are off by a margin greater than the margin of error, so if you want to predict election odds to much higher than 90% certainty, then being more conservative than the default 95% confidence level would seem sensible (except in weird situations that don't map to real life).
 
2012-11-06 05:59:46 AM  

Solid Muldoon: gayb: Voter fraud on both sides will likely be a wash. Obviously. Anyone who thinks one of the two major political parties in the US has a corner on the ethics market is f*cking delusional.

A wash?

On the Republican side: Governors. Secretaries of State. Heads of Election Commissions. The owners of voting machine companies.

On the Democratic side: That one lady who got caught.


What you don't get is that today millions of black people with go and vote, mostly Democratic, and almost none of them will be arrested for this gross violation of the Constitution.
 
2012-11-06 06:05:56 AM  
Think of Seamus: Vote Obama.
 
2012-11-06 06:21:40 AM  

propasaurus: Tigger: God's Hubris: Lenny_da_Hog: FreeRepublic is in denial, praying, and setting themselves up for continued anger this evening.

I got a dude on Facebook letting everyone know it's gonna be a 377 Romney landslide.

What do they do AFTER they are that wrong?

Is it like Fark Independents where they just pretend it never happened or do they do anything?

By this time on Wednesday, they will all claim to have voted for Gary Johnson. There will be so many who claim to have voted for him that if they actually had, he would have beaten Romney.


^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^6
 
2012-11-06 06:25:56 AM  

Triumph: Poor Nate - he never anticipated this:

http://romneymegaprayer.com/


that site gives me bad ju-ju. i worry about the poor people who will be caught up in the mailing lists of the cruel SOB who set up that fake site.

not cool.
 
2012-11-06 06:28:55 AM  
I bid 300 Quatloos on the newcomer.
 
2012-11-06 06:57:07 AM  
Um, how about a spoiler alert, subby, you dick.
 
2012-11-06 06:57:26 AM  
If Puerto Rico becomes a state it will be 541 EV's and there is already a prediction there:
http://fivefortyone.com/
Suck it.........
 
2012-11-06 07:02:54 AM  

BMulligan: By the way, isn't Hart's Location a totally cool name? Makes me think of Arthur C. Clarke's Tales From the White Hart.


In England, it would just mean liking a bad team from North London.
 
2012-11-06 07:04:18 AM  
I might be reading this wrong, but is he also predicting a 99.7% chance of Bachmann losing? And a 93.6% chance of Elizabeth Warren winning?
 
2012-11-06 07:14:58 AM  

Genevieve Marie: The Lone Gunman: ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.

Yeah, if that was a strategy for Obama, to tank the first one so he could look strong in the next two, whoever gave him that strategy should be fired. That only works for candidates who are not strong speakers and not exactly impressive on facts and details. It worked brilliantly for Bush Jr, but that kind of strategy wouldn't work for, say, Cory Booker, Bobby Jindal, and didn't for Obama.


I honestly think the problem with that debate was that the moderation was so bad and Romney was so much more aggressive than anyone was prepared for- shouting over the moderator, talking over the President, etc.

.


Yeah Jim Lehrer was freaking awful, he was invisible for the entire debate and didn't bother to interject. This was especially true when Raddatz, Crowley and Bob did much better jobs actually bothering to ask follow-up questions.

Plus Lehrer didn't even bother asking questions about Women's Issues and number of other topics which was helpful to Romney.
 
2012-11-06 07:22:40 AM  
OMG, Romney's chances went up .4% overnight. he's making a comeback!
 
2012-11-06 07:36:41 AM  
Latest poll:

Romney: 98.7%
Obama: 1.3%

That's from the Rasmussen Car Elevator Owner Poll.
 
2012-11-06 07:38:18 AM  

SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.


Nate Silver reports facts.

You however do not.
 
2012-11-06 07:38:42 AM  

Kibbler: Latest poll:

Romney: 98.7%
Obama: 1.3%

That's from the Rasmussen Car Elevator Owner Poll.


I hear he's polling at 85% of all Romneys. This means something.
 
2012-11-06 07:42:18 AM  
 
2012-11-06 07:54:08 AM  

randomjsa: And unless they are 100% accurate with zero errors then he's just as much guessing as everyone else.




Q. Is it as wrong to say the Earth is flat as it is to say the Earth is spherical?

A. No, not at all. Though the Earth isn't spherical, it's far closer to a sphere than a flat plane.

/If you can understand the lesson in this, you will understand why your post was stupid.
 
2012-11-06 08:01:51 AM  

InmanRoshi: I pretty cool little easy to use EV calculator web app for tonight as the swing state results come in.


saved for later.
 
2012-11-06 08:07:14 AM  

randomjsa: And unless they are 100% accurate with zero errors then he's just as much guessing as everyone else.


Our farking votes don't get counted with 100% accuracy, but you want a higher standard set for polling and statistics?

Oh, wait...it's randomjsa. Logic, thought and sincerity are foreign to you.
 
2012-11-06 08:09:40 AM  
I don't remember the last election at all, but were republicans so willingly lying to themselves about the results? I don't remember unskewed polls or seeing fake maps with WASHINGTON STATE or California in Red....It's like they think lying is some form of black kenyan magic they can use to make Romney win.
 
2012-11-06 08:13:37 AM  

SouthParkCon: Mrtraveler01: SouthParkCon: Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.

Where are you getting that message from? 

It's just probability based on an aggregate of polls. Nothing nefarious or sinister about it.

Nate Silver is a hard-core lefty who got his start on DailyKOS, do you really expect his results would conclude anything but an Obama victory? Manipulation of numbers to meet your ideological objective is nothing new on both sides of the aisle.


Today I Learned that the Baseball Prospectus is a hard-core leftist publication under the auspices of DailyKOS.
 
2012-11-06 08:16:10 AM  

Jaws_Victim: I don't remember the last election at all, but were republicans so willingly lying to themselves about the results? I don't remember unskewed polls or seeing fake maps with WASHINGTON STATE or California in Red....It's like they think lying is some form of black kenyan magic they can use to make Romney win.


They are setting up for the accusations of fraud that will come if Romney actually wins. If all of the aggregators were like Silver and Wang (a good band name by the way), it would be really hard to explain away the rigging that will have to happen for Romney to win. Since they have their own guys doing ridiculously unscientific predictions, they can just point to them and say that not everyone thought it was going to be an Obama blowout. And the media will gladly go along and we will be stuck with Bush III.
 
2012-11-06 08:21:07 AM  

LavenderWolf: randomjsa: And unless they are 100% accurate with zero errors then he's just as much guessing as everyone else.



Q. Is it as wrong to say the Earth is flat as it is to say the Earth is spherical?

A. No, not at all. Though the Earth isn't spherical, it's far closer to a sphere than a flat plane.

/If you can understand the lesson in this, you will understand why your post was stupid.


Republicans are incapable of acknowledging degrees of confidence, or a range or results/opinions, or a spectrum of thought. Everything is 0% or 100%, completely black or white, you are either with us or against us, either ideologically pure conservative or commie socialist. The polls must be 100% accurate or Romney wins.
 
2012-11-06 08:22:17 AM  

Generation_D: BMulligan: By the way, isn't Hart's Location a totally cool name? Makes me think of Arthur C. Clarke's Tales From the White Hart.

In England, it would just mean liking a bad team from North London.


LOL
 
2012-11-06 08:25:38 AM  

theknuckler_33: LavenderWolf: randomjsa: And unless they are 100% accurate with zero errors then he's just as much guessing as everyone else.



Q. Is it as wrong to say the Earth is flat as it is to say the Earth is spherical?

A. No, not at all. Though the Earth isn't spherical, it's far closer to a sphere than a flat plane.

/If you can understand the lesson in this, you will understand why your post was stupid.

Republicans are incapable of acknowledging degrees of confidence, or a range or results/opinions, or a spectrum of thought. Everything is 0% or 100%, completely black or white, you are either with us or against us, either ideologically pure conservative or commie socialist. The polls must be 100% accurate or Romney wins.


So it seems.
 
2012-11-06 08:48:30 AM  

xria: Modguy: Triumph: Nate Silver bases his model on polling. He doesn't factor in vote fraud. That's his Achilles heel.

Actually, he kind of does. Link

He frequently errs on the side of caution, and assumes that ALL polls are potentially off by a margin greater than the margin of error. It's why his percent chance of a Romney victory is 20 times higher than Wang's at the Princeton Election Consortium.

5% of the time polls are off by a margin greater than the margin of error, so if you want to predict election odds to much higher than 90% certainty, then being more conservative than the default 95% confidence level would seem sensible (except in weird situations that don't map to real life).


However because polls are consistently coming up with the same general results the likelihood of random error swinging it one way or the other is diminished (in a large enough sample random errors will cancel out). There basically needs to be systemic bias.
 
2012-11-06 09:13:31 AM  

dartben: Silver moved Ohio from likely to safe Obama and took it off the competitive states list.

He moved NE-2 from safe Romney to likely Romney and added it to the competitive states list.

That must have been one helluva move in the national polls.


With numbers this strong for Obama in Ohio, if the GOP there ends up trying to claim a Romney win, the freaking FBI had better descend on Columbus en masse. Florida was a squeaker and deserved to be sent to the Supreme Court, but Romney "winning" Ohio would be about as believable at this point as Romney "winning" California and Illinois.
 
2012-11-06 09:15:36 AM  
I've been avidly following Nate's column for months, and it's done wonders for my digestion this election cycle. But I have to ask: How the hell do you win 3/10 of an electoral vote?
 
2012-11-06 09:51:11 AM  

mksmith: I've been avidly following Nate's column for months, and it's done wonders for my digestion this election cycle. But I have to ask: How the hell do you win 3/10 of an electoral vote?


Because that is the centre of the probabilities, not a prediction. at this moment it is actually 314.6 +-48 electoral votes for Obama.

If you look below you see his model applied to the actual EC, with 332 EV at 21% (NC Romney, Florida Obama), 303 at 16% (NC and Florida Romney) and 347 at 14% (NC and Florida Obama) as the most likely outcomes of the actual EC (all three have all other swing states Obama).
 
2012-11-06 10:22:52 AM  

Hoboclown: I might be reading this wrong, but is he also predicting a 99.7% chance of Bachmann losing? And a 93.6% chance of Elizabeth Warren winning?


The latter yes, the former no. Bachmann isn't running for Senate.
 
2012-11-06 10:39:42 AM  
Romney's numbers have improved in the last 12 hours. He's up to 9.1%.
 
2012-11-06 10:41:30 AM  
Just voted. Even though the voter ID law injunction here in PA says they can't require ID to vote, I ticked off some poll workers by refusing to show mine when they asked. "Well, you'll have to next time." "Okay, but I don't need it now, thank you very much." My husband was proud of me :)
 
2012-11-06 11:35:58 AM  

RminusQ: Hoboclown: I might be reading this wrong, but is he also predicting a 99.7% chance of Bachmann losing? And a 93.6% chance of Elizabeth Warren winning?

The latter yes, the former no. Bachmann isn't running for Senate.


Thank you.
 
2012-11-06 12:18:05 PM  

pacified: and thus romney learns campaigning 101: You want to peak on election day, not 6 weeks before at some debate.


There are some excellent exercises he can practice to hold back from premature climaxing. Like thinking about statistics.
 
2012-11-07 01:59:06 AM  

TV's Vinnie: Empty Matchbook: GODDAMNIT FLORIDA PICK A farkING SIDE ALREADY!!!

/we're at war!

I'm sure most of the urban locales are for Obama, but between the hicks in the swamps plus the Cuban expats who still have a chubby for Batista, it's throwing off the statisticals.


I live in Cali, I know what it's like to be held hostage by a bunch of hicks on the outskirts...
 
2012-11-07 02:01:30 AM  

KarmaSpork: Empty Matchbook: GODDAMNIT FLORIDA PICK A farkING SIDE ALREADY!!!

/we're at war!

If it helps at all, I voted early and I got my hubby to vote for the first time. Both Obama.

AND I have my dad from leaning hard Republican to sitting the fence in VA. I brought up the square deal he lived through when he was young.

/goin' fishing tomorrow so I don't drive myself nuts watching the results


It does help

/it really does
 
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