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(The New York Times)   FiveThirtyEight's final numbers are in: 315.3 to 222.7 EVs for Obama and Romney giving the incumbent a 92.2% chance of victory to Romney's 7.8%   (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) divider line 379
    More: Followup, United States Senate, FiveThirtyEight, swing states, percentage change, Democrat majority, Democrats, program designer, mid-September  
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4060 clicks; posted to Politics » on 05 Nov 2012 at 11:40 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-05 09:35:42 PM  
Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?
 
2012-11-05 09:36:24 PM  
He said in his tweet these numbers are not final. He has more polls to add.
 
2012-11-05 09:38:27 PM  
More new tweets:

There's been a pretty clear shift toward Obama in national polls. Based on most recent data, he may lead by 2-3% in popular vote.

Obama gained an average of 1.5 points between 12 national polls published today. Big sample sizes. That's a pretty big deal.


This is bad news for...
 
2012-11-05 09:42:03 PM  
Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.
 
2012-11-05 09:42:31 PM  

ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.


:(
 
2012-11-05 09:42:36 PM  
I'll wait for the polls to be unskewed and the statistical quirks to be harmonized thank you very much
 
2012-11-05 09:43:57 PM  
All this really reminds me of 2004.
 
2012-11-05 09:45:43 PM  

WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?


A majority of the recent polls there show an Obama lead. If Florida goes Democratic, I'm going to be shocked, and I'm really going to have to eat earlier comments that Obama would have been smart to abandon the state. It also shows Virginia relatively safe, in fact exactly as safe as Colorado.

By the way, the last YouGov survey? More than 36,000 likely voters, and gave Obama a 2% lead. I'm not sure what the MOE is for 36,000, but it's small, probably around 1%.
 
2012-11-05 09:47:17 PM  

DamnYankees: He said in his tweet these numbers are not final. He has more polls to add.


i48.tinypic.com
 
2012-11-05 09:47:24 PM  

WalkingCarpet: More new tweets:

There's been a pretty clear shift toward Obama in national polls. Based on most recent data, he may lead by 2-3% in popular vote.

Obama gained an average of 1.5 points between 12 national polls published today. Big sample sizes. That's a pretty big deal.

This is bad news for...

Bronco Bamma
 
2012-11-05 09:50:42 PM  
It's almost statistical time.
 
2012-11-05 09:51:49 PM  

flucto: All this really reminds me of 2004.


As confident as I am in numbers, I can't help but think there's going to be an awful lot of shenanigans tomorrow. I can say for the first time ever that I am actually worried about how this election will turn out.

The prospect of a Romney presidency farking terrifies me. Not in the sense that he'll do anything catastrophically horrible in his first term - but that it would be a sign from the voters to the GOP that you can lie, cheat, flip-flop, and just generally be dicks and we'll let you do it. Not only will we let you do it, we'll give you the keys to the highest office in the country.

What would that say about us?
 
2012-11-05 09:53:07 PM  

cameroncrazy1984: ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.

:(


I'm a long suffering Mets fan myself.
 
2012-11-05 09:54:12 PM  

Coolfusis: Not in the sense that he'll do anything catastrophically horrible in his first term


I dunno, I'd be willing to bet that we'll be at war with Iran within six months of him taking office, that's what terrifies me.
 
2012-11-05 09:54:46 PM  

Coolfusis: The prospect of a Romney presidency farking terrifies me. Not in the sense that he'll do anything catastrophically horrible in his first term - but that it would be a sign from the voters to the GOP that you can lie, cheat, flip-flop, and just generally be dicks and we'll let you do it.


Not to mention HE STILL HASNT RELEASED HIS TAX RETURNS. What the fark.
 
2012-11-05 09:58:44 PM  

WalkingCarpet: DamnYankees: He said in his tweet these numbers are not final. He has more polls to add.


MItt better not be packing any Samsonite or planning on taking Petey to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue anytime soon..
 
2012-11-05 09:59:25 PM  

WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?


Florida is on a knifes edge. It will almost certainly wind up in a recount, but at this rate it probably isn't needed for an Obama win.
 
2012-11-05 10:01:03 PM  

NowhereMon: WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?

Florida is on a knifes edge. It will almost certainly wind up in a recount, but at this rate it probably isn't needed for an Obama win.


neither is Ohio.
 
2012-11-05 10:02:19 PM  

ManateeGag: cameroncrazy1984: ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.

:(

I'm a long suffering Mets fan myself.


The only reason I'm still wearing my HI57ORY sweatshirt at this point is because I refuse to wear my Sabres one.
 
2012-11-05 10:04:46 PM  

WalkingCarpet: DamnYankees: He said in his tweet these numbers are not final. He has more polls to add.

[i48.tinypic.com image 319x197]


Well played.
 
2012-11-05 10:07:30 PM  

ManateeGag: NowhereMon: WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?

Florida is on a knifes edge. It will almost certainly wind up in a recount, but at this rate it probably isn't needed for an Obama win.

neither is Ohio.


I look at them this way: Romney can't win without Ohio, Florida and Virginia. There is no realistic scenario where he wins without carrying all three of those. Virginia appears to be slipping away, but Ohio will be held by endless Republican voter theft. But if Romney can't win Florida outright, he has no hope of taking the fourth state he needs with those three. And if he can't win Florida outright, he is very unlikely to win Virginia.
 
2012-11-05 10:08:31 PM  

ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.


c'mon. what about the Red Sox??
 
2012-11-05 10:09:24 PM  

ManateeGag: NowhereMon: WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?

Florida is on a knifes edge. It will almost certainly wind up in a recount, but at this rate it probably isn't needed for an Obama win.

neither is Ohio.


True but I think Obama is trying to take Ohio to just spite Romney. It isn't needed for him to win but it is very critical for Romney to win.
 
2012-11-05 10:14:46 PM  

thoughtpol: ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.

c'mon. what about the Red Sox??


I will point you to the 2007 season. hey lost 12 of their last 17 games.
 
2012-11-05 10:20:09 PM  

NowhereMon: WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?

Florida is on a knifes edge. It will almost certainly wind up in a recount, but at this rate it probably isn't needed for an Obama win.


Wait, I thought it was unconstitutional to do recounts in Florida
 
2012-11-05 10:24:47 PM  
I'm surprised to see Colorado go so blue. I've been watching it for a while and it's been hovering around 50-55% leaning Obama, but today he's showing 80.3% probability. That's a pretty big change in the last 30 days.
 
2012-11-05 10:28:22 PM  
New numbers, 315.3 to 222.7, with Romney at a 7.8% chance of winning.
 
2012-11-05 10:29:15 PM  
it went even further down in the last 3 hours?
 
2012-11-05 10:29:53 PM  

ManateeGag: it went even further down in the last 3 hours?


As of 25 minutes ago.
 
2012-11-05 10:42:04 PM  

ManateeGag: it went even further down in the last 3 hours?


New polls came in. He said he was waiting on a few more.
 
2012-11-05 11:32:24 PM  

ManateeGag: NowhereMon: WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?

Florida is on a knifes edge. It will almost certainly wind up in a recount, but at this rate it probably isn't needed for an Obama win.

neither is Ohio.


Ohio is in the nice to have category, if that falls, then it's all over by bedtime. I'm not counting on it, planning on a late night.
 
2012-11-05 11:43:15 PM  
FreeRepublic is in denial, praying, and setting themselves up for continued anger this evening.
 
2012-11-05 11:43:45 PM  

Coolfusis: flucto: All this really reminds me of 2004.

As confident as I am in numbers, I can't help but think there's going to be an awful lot of shenanigans tomorrow. I can say for the first time ever that I am actually worried about how this election will turn out.

The prospect of a Romney presidency farking terrifies me. Not in the sense that he'll do anything catastrophically horrible in his first term - but that it would be a sign from the voters to the GOP that you can lie, cheat, flip-flop, and just generally be dicks and we'll let you do it. Not only will we let you do it, we'll give you the keys to the highest office in the country.

What would that say about us?


And stuff like this is why we are freinds Cool. :)
 
2012-11-05 11:44:02 PM  
Silver moved Ohio from likely to safe Obama and took it off the competitive states list.

He moved NE-2 from safe Romney to likely Romney and added it to the competitive states list.

That must have been one helluva move in the national polls.
 
2012-11-05 11:44:51 PM  
Some researchers at Princeton have a nice little meta-analysis website:

Princeton Election Consortium

They have Obama 309 vs Romney 229, and probability of Obama re-elected: ~98.2-99.8%.
 
2012-11-05 11:45:08 PM  

WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?


hmmm, this afternoon it was leaning Romney. GOPers are going to be real pissed now.
 
2012-11-05 11:45:34 PM  
7.8% is too high a chance for a derp-flopper like Romney to win such a position of power and responsibility.
 
2012-11-05 11:46:28 PM  
Nate Silver doesn't account for election shenanigans and low turnout due to Sandy, does he? I think Ohio will narrowly go to Romney and there will be some surprises on the East Coast as well, but probably not for the presidential election.
 
2012-11-05 11:47:21 PM  

WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?


Hurricane State + Christie's Praise For Obama + Mitt's Privatize FEMA Comment = Obama Wins Florida
 
2012-11-05 11:48:06 PM  
Nate Silver 2.0 @fivethirtynate
The Forecast and the Nowcast meet. I glimpse boundless realms in their penumbra. Meta-Romney holds a strong lead in the infrared states.
 
2012-11-05 11:48:52 PM  

ManateeGag: Romney gains so much after the first debate. Last time I saw that much momentum lost, the Mets were in first place.


I remember this time when the Cubs nearly made it to the play offs.
 
2012-11-05 11:49:22 PM  

WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?


That was my brother-in-law. I'm sure of it. He wasn't going to vote again for Obama. I guess change was too slow. But he must have snapped out of it at the last minute.
 
2012-11-05 11:49:27 PM  
Awesome sauce. I do think Sandy was a big positive, albeit an unfortunate and unwanted one, for Obama. Not that he wasn't going to win it anyway, but it cemented what we finally saw in the second and third debates - this guy is a good President and knows what he is doing.

That said, I fully expect OH to get ripped away by way of incredible fraud. We need to do something about this shiat.
 
2012-11-05 11:49:57 PM  
With OH, FL, and VA on the east coast it may be an early night... Oh what am I thinking, the media will do their best to keep as many people up all night as they can. My guess is that it will be midnight eastern time before they'll "call it."
 
2012-11-05 11:50:06 PM  
Imagine what the numbers would look like if Obama had even displayed having pulse in the first debate instead of being an add for Ambien
 
2012-11-05 11:50:29 PM  
Slimer / Amy from Congo 2012!
 
2012-11-05 11:50:32 PM  
i49.tinypic.com
 
2012-11-05 11:50:45 PM  

skepticultist: WalkingCarpet: Wow, Florida has flipped back to leaning Obama?

Hurricane State + Christie's Praise For Obama + Mitt's Privatize FEMA Comment = Obama Wins Florida


Bill Clinton made several campaign stops here a couple of days ago. That Bubba is still one silver tongued devil.
 
2012-11-05 11:50:55 PM  

TV's Vinnie: [i49.tinypic.com image 360x270]


quickpic.us
 
2012-11-05 11:51:13 PM  
Remember, that means if you are a Republican STAY THE FARK HOME AND DON'T BOTHER VOTING!

This message brought to you by Nate Silver and the DNC.
 
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