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(Some Guy)   Is Nate Silver a Witch?   (isnatesilverawitch.com) divider line 406
    More: Obvious  
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8815 clicks; posted to Politics » on 05 Nov 2012 at 8:38 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-05 04:30:33 PM
Oh, that is beautiful. Thanks for posting subby!
 
2012-11-05 04:32:16 PM
Is he made of wood?
 
2012-11-05 04:42:53 PM
Does he weigh less than a duck?
 
2012-11-05 04:43:02 PM
I would guess Wizard over witch
 
2012-11-05 04:50:13 PM
I mean, look at what he did to Mr Gingrich!
 
2012-11-05 04:51:07 PM

NowhereMon: I would guess Wizard over witch


Warlock.
 
2012-11-05 05:09:46 PM

Nadie_AZ: I mean, look at what he did to Mr Gingrich!


You win the internets.
 
2012-11-05 05:09:50 PM
He turned me into a newt

/I got better
 
2012-11-05 05:10:54 PM
Formulae, spells...to-MAY-to, to-MAH-to...

All the same to derpers.
 
2012-11-05 05:11:19 PM
Technically, he's a psephologist.
 
2012-11-05 05:12:58 PM
This site is full of shiat.

You really think those flying monkeys he keeps around his castle are just "pets"?
 
2012-11-05 05:15:00 PM

eraser8: This site is full of shiat.

You really think those flying monkeys he keeps around his castle are just "pets"?


I was told that they're for food.
 
2012-11-05 05:15:43 PM
I've been browsing FR off and on today while waiting for various things to run.

There's one person who believes that the polls are skewed because "everytime I've been called on a poll I've told them I'm voting for 0bama". Thus, obviously, Romney is really the one in the lead.

Fascinating stuff going on with the Interwebs today.
 
2012-11-05 05:17:14 PM
Oh. Please be crazy. Please be crazy. Please be crazy. Please be crazy.

*clicks*

Dammit.
 
2012-11-05 05:17:59 PM

NowhereMon: I would guess Wizard over witch


4chandata.org

Oblig ^_^
 
2012-11-05 05:18:34 PM

Nadie_AZ: I mean, look at what he did to Mr Gingrich!


Do me, you beautiful bastard.
 
2012-11-05 05:20:43 PM

Of course it's not witchcraft.
What Nate Silver is doing is technically closer to a form of shamanic mediation. Really.

"The way of shamanic mediation consists into entry into altered states of consciousness in which persons become mediators or channels for the intervention of spiritual reality°, in the expectation that "supernatural" (transmundane) resources of imagination, power, and guidance will be released for solving or dealing with otherwise intractable problems of life." If one considers people's ordinary reflexively intuitive understanding about how the world works to be the "mundane", then empirical, analytical, mathematical thinking is a form of altered state of consciousness; and if one considers reality° to be talking about the universe as it actually is rather than how we mundanely expect it, his predictions fit the bill.

people.virginia.edu
 
2012-11-05 05:21:02 PM
Actually, more of a "what" than a "which"
 
2012-11-05 05:21:16 PM
Ah, I remember the good old days when only baseball fans knew who this guy was.
 
2012-11-05 05:25:39 PM

Nabb1: Ah, I remember the good old days when only baseball fans knew who this guy was.


Gettin' into political prognostication is the best thing he's ever done for himself.
 
2012-11-05 05:27:38 PM
And if he nails the EC exactly tomorrow, that site better be a big YES, lol.
 
2012-11-05 05:30:05 PM
s16.postimage.org

GOP: "Burn him anyway!!!"
 
2012-11-05 05:34:57 PM
Make a bridge out of him, it's the only way to be sure.
 
2012-11-05 05:35:25 PM
I won't be convinced until we try to build a bridge out of him.
 
2012-11-05 05:35:27 PM
Metric ass-ton of swing state polls out today.

Link
 
2012-11-05 05:37:28 PM

CommieTaoist: Make a bridge out of him, it's the only way to be sure.


AdolfOliverPanties: I won't be convinced until we try to build a bridge out of him.


Missed it by *that* much
 
2012-11-05 05:38:16 PM

TheBeastOfYuccaFlats: Nabb1: Ah, I remember the good old days when only baseball fans knew who this guy was.

Gettin' into political prognostication is the best thing he's ever done for himself.


I was into him before he went mainstream. That was his best work. He's too commercial now.
 
2012-11-05 05:42:20 PM

Nabb1: TheBeastOfYuccaFlats: Nabb1: Ah, I remember the good old days when only baseball fans knew who this guy was.

Gettin' into political prognostication is the best thing he's ever done for himself.

I was into him before he went mainstream. That was his best work. He's too commercial now.


You should wear more flannel and grow a soul patch.
 
2012-11-05 05:44:23 PM

yukichigai: NowhereMon: I would guess Wizard over witch

[4chandata.org image 376x500]

Oblig ^_^


dtdstudios.com
 
2012-11-05 05:44:37 PM

Nabb1: Ah, I remember the good old days when only baseball fans knew who this guy was.


Did he consort with the Powers of Darkness back then?
 
2012-11-05 05:50:16 PM
But...but...PEGGY NOONAN!
 
2012-11-05 05:53:34 PM
He's going to have a lot of words to eat if he's wrong. Personally, while I believe that an Obama win is likely, I'm not sure I agree with some of his high percentages.
 
2012-11-05 05:57:59 PM

MaudlinMutantMollusk: CommieTaoist: Make a bridge out of him, it's the only way to be sure.

AdolfOliverPanties: I won't be convinced until we try to build a bridge out of him.

Missed it by *that* much


I got my first simulpost today. Can't expect to get two on one day after Farking for 9 years.
 
2012-11-05 05:58:32 PM
You are indeed learned men of science
 
2012-11-05 06:08:05 PM

nekom: He's going to have a lot of words to eat if he's wrong. Personally, while I believe that an Obama win is likely, I'm not sure I agree with some of his high percentages.


I *just* heard an interview with him on Sunday where he guarantees he'll be wrong at some point. That's just how statisticals work.
 
2012-11-05 06:12:15 PM

nekom: He's going to have a lot of words to eat if he's wrong. Personally, while I believe that an Obama win is likely, I'm not sure I agree with some of his high percentages.


That's just because you're afraid of the possibility that he'll lose (as am I). Thing is, Nate Silver knows WTF he's doing, and is eerily accurate. You and I just have a gut feeling about these numbers but aren't basing it on aything concrete.
 
2012-11-05 06:13:53 PM
That's not even his nose
 
2012-11-05 06:16:33 PM
This matter won't be settled until Nate releases a video explaining that he's not a witch.
 
2012-11-05 06:19:47 PM
I got better!!
 
2012-11-05 06:28:43 PM

dickfreckle: nekom: He's going to have a lot of words to eat if he's wrong. Personally, while I believe that an Obama win is likely, I'm not sure I agree with some of his high percentages.

That's just because you're afraid of the possibility that he'll lose (as am I). Thing is, Nate Silver knows WTF he's doing, and is eerily accurate. You and I just have a gut feeling about these numbers but aren't basing it on aything concrete.


This isn't really true. While Silver is an Obama supporter, his model still says that a certain percentage of times that the simulations are run Romney wins.

People really, really don't understand statistics.
 
2012-11-05 06:30:12 PM

Dusk-You-n-Me: Metric ass-ton of swing state polls out today.

Link


The R/R campaign can't be happy with those FL polls.
 
2012-11-05 06:34:34 PM
I'll just leave this here:

www.isdeanchambersawizard,com.
 
2012-11-05 06:35:27 PM

dickfreckle: That's just because you're afraid of the possibility that he'll lose (as am I). Thing is, Nate Silver knows WTF he's doing, and is eerily accurate. You and I just have a gut feeling about these numbers but aren't basing it on aything concrete.


Well, that's true. I don't doubt that he has mathed this thing as hard as anyone can math a thing, and I have no hard data supporting WHY I think he's overestimating his chances a bit. I don't see any reason to suspect him of bias, he appears to only want to be correct. I have no problem with Texas and California being given 100% odds for Romney and Obama respectively, but 72% for Obama in Virginia? Every poll I've seen suggests that is absolutely a dead heat. Don't get me wrong, Obama may well take Virginia but I don't see how he can be THAT confident that he will. And 86% in Ohio? I've never seen a single poll in Ohio that I can recall that Obama was not in the lead, but only by less than 5%.

If Nate's predictions are accurate, tomorrow is going to be a very good day for the Obama campaign. And if they aren't, well I'd be interested to hear him explain where he thinks he went wrong.
 
2012-11-05 06:44:02 PM

nekom: 72% for Obama in Virginia? Every poll I've seen suggests that is absolutely a dead heat. Don't get me wrong, Obama may well take Virginia but I don't see how he can be THAT confident that he will. And 86% in Ohio? I've never seen a single poll in Ohio that I can recall that Obama was not in the lead, but only by less than 5%.


That's because his system isn't a simple average of polls.
 
2012-11-05 06:44:20 PM

St_Francis_P: This matter won't be settled until Nate releases a video explaining that he's not a witch.


WHAR IS COVIN
CERTIfCT SLIVER
WHE
\o/
|
/\
 
2012-11-05 06:48:01 PM
img600.imageshack.us

This is the part that still bothers me a lot more than any polls and statistics.

Remember 2004, when Kerry and the Democrats were all: "we are ready to investigate any and all irregularities in the electronic vote record" on Monday, and all: "whoops, we lost 49-51, no problem!" on Wednesday?
 
2012-11-05 07:02:23 PM

nekom: 72% for Obama in Virginia? Every poll I've seen suggests that is absolutely a dead heat. Don't get me wrong, Obama may well take Virginia but I don't see how he can be THAT confident that he will. And 86% in Ohio? I've never seen a single poll in Ohio that I can recall that Obama was not in the lead, but only by less than 5%.


You can also look at the stats that go into any given state in the sidebar at the site, btw
 
2012-11-05 07:03:10 PM
To be fair, Kerry dod that as a warning to republicans, if you are going to cheat-make it far enough where we don't have to contest it.

Kerry was loosing by enough befor the election happened.
 
2012-11-05 07:11:41 PM

nekom: I have no problem with Texas and California being given 100% odds for Romney and Obama respectively, but 72% for Obama in Virginia? Every poll I've seen suggests that is absolutely a dead heat. Don't get me wrong, Obama may well take Virginia but I don't see how he can be THAT confident that he will. And 86% in Ohio? I've never seen a single poll in Ohio that I can recall that Obama was not in the lead, but only by less than 5%.


I don't think you understand how these sorts of confidence-based predictions work.

A race can be incredibly, razor-thin close and yet one choice can still have a MASSIVE advantage, probabilistically speaking.

An 86% chance of winning the State doesn't actually tell you much about the predicted interval between predicted vote share of the candidates in that State -- at least when it comes to battlegrounds. They're actually only very loosely related.
 
2012-11-05 07:18:19 PM

TheBeastOfYuccaFlats: That's because his system isn't a simple average of polls.


I get that, and I know there is math behind it, just seems like a rather ballsy prediction. You'd have to be delusional not to call Obama the clear favorite, but to be THAT sure? I guess we'll see.
 
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