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(270 To Win)   Fark Electoral College Contest: post your best guesstimate of how the final electoral college map will look after Tuesday's election. Up for grabs: bragging rights for the next four years in the Politics tab   (270towin.com) divider line 524
    More: Spiffy, political sciences, u.s president  
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1461 clicks; posted to Politics » on 05 Nov 2012 at 1:39 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest

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2012-11-05 08:29:22 PM

DamnYankees: PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls
Y'all we have 2016 primary portions for our Florida, Iowa, and New Hampshire polls coming later in the week :)


NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!


lol

Obama 347 (51.1%)
R$ 191 (47.9%)
Other (1%)
 
2012-11-05 08:30:21 PM

Rockdrummer: A lot of you are going to lose lots of money if you are betting on O. All the polls are based on 2008 turnout, which is heavily dem. 2012 is more like R +3. Watch.


Do you have a link to a web-site which adjusts for this and unskews (not sure if this is the correct term) the polls accordingly? My gut tells me Obama is losing but I need a table or chart to validate these feelings for me.
 
2012-11-05 08:30:41 PM
The Blah Guy 284, Money Boo Boo 254. Popular vote: Fartbama by 0.6%

img338.imageshack.us
 
2012-11-05 08:32:26 PM

DamnYankees: GoSlash27: 50% 44% Nov 01 Nov 03 Zogby

GoSlash27: 45% 49% Oct 27 Oct 29 Zogby

How is this possible? Do they stink at polling THAT badly?


Yeah, I saw those and thought to myself "Is Zogby the LW equivalent of Rassmussen?"
 
2012-11-05 08:39:29 PM

MisterRonbo: The Blah Guy 284, Money Boo Boo 254. Popular vote: Fartbama by 0.6%

[img338.imageshack.us image 641x567]


That's racist
 
2012-11-05 08:41:19 PM

92myrtle: [oi50.tinypic.com image 752x561]


[www.dorifun.com image 500x365]


Some people just want to watch the world burn.
 
2012-11-05 08:52:37 PM

DamnYankees: GoSlash27: 50% 44% Nov 01 Nov 03 Zogby

GoSlash27: 45% 49% Oct 27 Oct 29 Zogby

How is this possible? Do they stink at polling THAT badly?


I didn't ask. I'd say it's probably a combination of the Obama trend over the last few days and plain ol' margin of error.
 
2012-11-05 09:06:10 PM
i.imgur.com
 
2012-11-05 09:20:02 PM

hdhale: Romney 289-249, though we likely won't know the result tomorrow night or even the day after.


bwahahahahahahahaha oh my god that's some funny shiat. If Romney wins, *I'LL* buy you a month of TF.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
 
2012-11-05 09:20:35 PM
Romney 312 52.7%
Obama 226 47%
Other 0 0.3%
 
2012-11-05 09:28:51 PM
O- 359
R- 179

O- 52.2%
R- 46.3%
others 1.5%
 
2012-11-05 09:34:56 PM

NobleHam: NobleHam: The smart money right now is on 303 for Obama with Romney taking Florida, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 332. Anything more than that would be unexpected.

Oh, and popular vote...

Obama - 50.3%
Romney - 49.2%
Other - 1.1%


God, I'm an idiot.

Romney - 48.6%
 
2012-11-05 09:39:10 PM
 
2012-11-05 09:42:57 PM
440-98!
Link

imageshack.us
 
2012-11-05 09:44:04 PM
Note to DY:
440 is not my official entry in the pool.
 
2012-11-05 09:44:09 PM
I wanna see this happen, just so the media will call it early when Ohio flips and cry when Romney still loses

i46.tinypic.com

O-272
R-266
 
2012-11-05 09:44:47 PM
I predict alot of butthurt for Romnesiacs on Wednesday.
 
2012-11-05 09:46:58 PM
Electoral College:

316 - Romney
222 - Obama


Popular Vote:

54.5% - Romney
45.5% - Obama 
 
2012-11-05 09:49:34 PM

GeneralJim: Electoral College:

316 - Romney
222 - Obama


Popular Vote:

54.5% - Romney
45.5% - Obama


Please, share whatever you're smoking.
 
2012-11-05 09:55:50 PM
Oh, yeah, the House stays as is or goes further Republican,
and the Republicans take the Senate with a small majority.
 
2012-11-05 10:01:10 PM

mikemoto:

Senate: Republicans only pick up 1 seat. They really picked bad candidates in several states


Check each race. Its hard to see how Republicans pick up even one seat. They might end up losing a seat.

House: Democrats do NOT take back the House. As a matter fact they actually lose a net of about 5 seats. And Michele Bachmann and Paul Ryan EASILY win re-election.

Nah, Democrats pick up 5 seats. There are some pretty weak tea party freshmen (Joe Walsh is the poster boy), and Obama has coattails.
 
2012-11-05 10:01:50 PM
i111.photobucket.com

R-302
O-236
 
2012-11-05 10:12:25 PM
aedude01:
GeneralJim:
Electoral College:

316 - Romney
222 - Obama


Popular Vote:

54.5% - Romney
45.5% - Obama


Please, share whatever you're smoking.

Really? Want to bet a dollar a point on who is closer?

That is, add up one point for how much off you are on Obama's total, and one point for how much off you are on Romney's total. I do the same. The winner has the lower total, and wins the loser's total minus their total, in dollars. To refresh your memory, YOUR prediction was:

Once the lawyers are done I think it'll be something like this:
Obama 303
Romney 235


Has a fark-proof wager mechanism been developed for Fark?
 
2012-11-05 10:31:42 PM

GeneralJim:
Electoral College:

316 - Romney
222 - Obama


Popular Vote:

54.5% - Romney
45.5% - Obama


Want to bet a dollar a point on who is closer?

That is, add up one point for how much off you are on Obama's total, and one point for how much off you are on Romney's total. I do the same. The winner has the lower total, and wins the loser's total minus their total, in dollars.
Has a fark-proof wager mechanism been developed for Fark?


I'll take that action. I'm O:284 R:254 I think I'm giving Romney the benefit of the doubt, I am giving him Florida and Virginia.

And though it doesn't figure in, I seriously doubt the popular vote difference will be more than two points, probably less than 1 point (with Obama taking it).

You can donate my winnings to the Haight Ashbury Free Clinic, earmarked for the Women's Needs Center, remember to fill in the special note as: In Honor of Mister Ronbo

(I think you haven't done the math on this bet. Since my numbers are much closer together than yours, if the electoral college is very close I still win, even if Obama loses)
 
2012-11-05 10:32:41 PM

GeneralJim: aedude01: GeneralJim:
Electoral College:

316 - Romney
222 - Obama


Popular Vote:

54.5% - Romney
45.5% - Obama

Please, share whatever you're smoking.
Really? Want to bet a dollar a point on who is closer?

That is, add up one point for how much off you are on Obama's total, and one point for how much off you are on Romney's total. I do the same. The winner has the lower total, and wins the loser's total minus their total, in dollars. To refresh your memory, YOUR prediction was:

Once the lawyers are done I think it'll be something like this:
Obama 303
Romney 235

Has a fark-proof wager mechanism been developed for Fark?


How about this: We both donate $50 to the Red Cross, and whoever's right gets bragging rights? They currently need the money more than I do.
 
2012-11-05 10:44:58 PM
I've got 0bongo 288 50.2
Rmone¥ 250 48.4
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bpQu

I've never been wrong before.
/I've never guessed before
 
2012-11-05 10:57:56 PM

GeneralJim: aedude01: GeneralJim:
Electoral College:

316 - Romney
222 - Obama


Popular Vote:

54.5% - Romney
45.5% - Obama

Please, share whatever you're smoking.
Really? Want to bet a dollar a point on who is closer?

That is, add up one point for how much off you are on Obama's total, and one point for how much off you are on Romney's total. I do the same. The winner has the lower total, and wins the loser's total minus their total, in dollars. To refresh your memory, YOUR prediction was:

Once the lawyers are done I think it'll be something like this:
Obama 303
Romney 235

Has a fark-proof wager mechanism been developed for Fark?


Dude, I'll bet you straight up. Fark the points.

There are a lot of delusional people in here. I'd say tonight, but it's every single day.
 
2012-11-05 11:04:11 PM
Had worked up an electoral map of Obama 303, republican nominee 235 back in march. Kinda surprised my current map looks exactly the same but there it is, sticking with it.

Popular vote? I'm note sure, maybe O 50.6, R 48.3
 
2012-11-05 11:17:24 PM
Drunk.

Obama gets 288, Romney gets 250, Obama gets 52% of the popular vote.
 
2012-11-05 11:52:08 PM
Mitt the stormin' Mormin' Romney: plus eleventy million
Barrack Hussein Fartbongo Obama: minus infinity plus 1

popular vote: Jesus: 98.99%, Satan: 0.01%

Suck it libs.
 
2012-11-06 12:32:54 AM

entitygm: I wanna see this happen, just so the media will call it early when Ohio flips and cry when Romney still loses

[i46.tinypic.com image 850x622]

O-272
R-266


Very, very cruel. I like the cut of your jib.

I'm still going with 318, fl GOP, nc dem, and 40 news anchors trying to fill up 6 hours of air time from 7:31pm till they can go home and get plastered.
 
2012-11-06 12:56:49 AM
EV:
Romney 274
Obama 264

Popular vote:
Obama 51.4%
Romney 47.1%
Other 1.5%

A victory in the popular vote and four years of terrible Romney presidency results in Obama pulling a Grover Cleveland Redeemer (or is that a Grover Cleveland Steamer?) and winning the 2016 election with the following "Nixon vs. McGovern"-like beatdown:

2016 EV:
Obama 514
Romney 24

2016 Popular vote:
Obama 60.7%
Romney 36.3%
Other 3.0%
 
2012-11-06 02:04:05 AM
I can't make a picture map, so I'll list out in text format my choices.

Obama: 285
Romney: 253

Obama wins WA, OR, CA, NV, NM, CO, MN, IA, WI, IL, MI, PA, NY, VT, NH, ME, MA, RI, CT, MD, VA, HI, DC
Romney wins AK, ID, UT, AZ, MT, WY, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, MO, AR, LA, IN, KY, TN, MS, AL, GA, SC, WV, NC, FL, OH

I can't shake the feeling that even though Obama is well ahead in the polls in Ohio and Florida that the shenanigans there will put Romney over the top. That said, even with those wins and a potential win in Virginia, Romney would still lose the election with this map. Who would have guessed that three months ago?
 
2012-11-06 02:08:53 AM

mrshowrules: DamnYankees: mrshowrules 284 254

Please add the percentage to mine Obama: 49.5% to Romney 48.5%, Other 2.0%


Could not be more irrelevant. Although, sounds about right.
 
2012-11-06 02:22:28 AM

Serious Black: I can't make a picture map, so I'll list out in text format my choices.

Obama: 285
Romney: 253

Obama wins WA, OR, CA, NV, NM, CO, MN, IA, WI, IL, MI, PA, NY, VT, NH, ME, MA, RI, CT, MD, VA, HI, DC
Romney wins AK, ID, UT, AZ, MT, WY, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, MO, AR, LA, IN, KY, TN, MS, AL, GA, SC, WV, NC, FL, OH

I can't shake the feeling that even though Obama is well ahead in the polls in Ohio and Florida that the shenanigans there will put Romney over the top. That said, even with those wins and a potential win in Virginia, Romney would still lose the election with this map. Who would have guessed that three months ago?


Oh, and if we're predicting popular vote percentages, I'm going with Romney 49.5%, Obama 49.2%, third party candidates the rest.
 
2012-11-06 02:56:19 AM
Unable to link map...

Obama: CA, CT, DC, DE, FL, HI, IA, IL, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NM, NV, NY, OR, PA, RI, VA, VT, WA, WI

Romney: AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, OH, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY

Electoral vote: Obama 305, Romney 233
Popular vote: Obama 50.7%, Romney 47.9%
 
2012-11-06 04:13:59 AM
Link

Obama: 275
Romney: 263
 
2012-11-06 04:38:37 AM
 
2012-11-06 05:20:35 AM
i632.photobucket.com

Big variable is Florida, but I'll gamble Obama doing a little better than predicted there, just to be different.

For Popular Vote, I'll say Obama up by a 2.1% margin.

I'll also predict 53D/47R for the Senate, just for good measure.
 
2012-11-06 06:35:07 AM

MisterRonbo: mikemoto:

Senate: Republicans only pick up 1 seat. They really picked bad candidates in several states

Check each race. Its hard to see how Republicans pick up even one seat. They might end up losing a seat.

House: Democrats do NOT take back the House. As a matter fact they actually lose a net of about 5 seats. And Michele Bachmann and Paul Ryan EASILY win re-election.

Nah, Democrats pick up 5 seats. There are some pretty weak tea party freshmen (Joe Walsh is the poster boy), and Obama has coattails.


On then senate side, I have the GOP picking up Montana, North Dakota, and Nebraska. They will lose Indiana, Massachusetts and Maine. I'm going out on limb and say that Linda McMahon wins in Connecticut. Murphy is the worst Senate candidate the Democrats are running by far, and Mcmahon's numbers are actually quite good.

As for the House, you are right about Joe Walsh, but he's more the exception than the rule. Other than him, the other pickup opportunities are slim at best. They probably will get a couple of seats back in upstate New York or New Hampshire, but these will be offset by Mia Love beating Matheson in Utah, the open seats in Arkansas and Oklahoma will both go GOP, and North Carolina was so redistricted that the Democrats could easily lose 3 seats in that state alone.
 
2012-11-06 07:27:58 AM

Serious Black: I can't shake the feeling that even though Obama is well ahead in the polls in Ohio and Florida...

almostdumb.com 
You can't be serious.
/He can't be.
 
2012-11-06 10:11:49 AM
Ok - thanks everyone. Tabluating now, will put up a summary thread later.
 
2012-11-06 11:19:03 AM
MisterRonbo:
I'll take that action. I'm O:284 R:254 I think I'm giving Romney the benefit of the doubt, I am giving him Florida and Virginia.

And though it doesn't figure in, I seriously doubt the popular vote difference will be more than two points, probably less than 1 point (with Obama taking it).

You can donate my winnings to the Haight Ashbury Free Clinic, earmarked for the Women's Needs Center, remember to fill in the special note as: In Honor of Mister Ronbo

(I think you haven't done the math on this bet. Since my numbers are much closer together than yours, if the electoral college is very close I still win, even if Obama loses)

I'm very sorry -- I'm going have to retract that offer of a wager. I have been informed that betting on Presidential elections is illegal. Who knew?

We'll just go for "neener, neener" rights, eh?
 
2012-11-06 11:20:37 AM
aedude01:
How about this: We both donate $50 to the Red Cross, and whoever's right gets bragging rights? They currently need the money more than I do.

Sounds very good. I can't picture that being illegal!
 
2012-11-06 11:21:44 AM

I posted this in the new thread but it hasn't been greened (yet), so:

Thanks to everyone who participated in the predictions thread - as stated in that thread, winner gets a free month of TF. Given the sheer number of ties in the EV prediction, it's more than likely we won't know who wins this for a while when they finalize the PV count. I'll post the general stats here, and the full prediction in the next post.

ONGOING TALLY

Predictions: 210
Predictions of Obama Win: 90%

Median Obama EV: 303
Median Romney EV: 235
Mode Obama EV: 303
Mode Romney EV: 235
Mode as Percent of Total: 20%

Median Obama PV: 50.2
Median Romney PV: 48.6

Max Obama EV Prediction: 385
Max Obama PV Prediction: 54.3

Min Obama EV Prediction: 207
Min Obama PV Prediction: 46.5

Max Obama PV Spread: 8.6
Max Romney PV Spread: 8


OBAMA ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION

img.ctrlv.in

OBAMA MARGIN OF VICTORY DISTRIBUTION

img.ctrlv.in

(Doesn't include the one prediction of Romney by 8 for the sake of making the chart more readable).

 
2012-11-06 11:22:35 AM
Your Average Witty Fark User:
Dude, I'll bet you straight up. Fark the points.

There are a lot of delusional people in here. I'd say tonight, but it's every single day.

M'Kay, but, again, it has to be for bragging rights only.
 
2012-11-06 11:55:41 AM

xelnia: A victory in the popular vote and four years of terrible Romney presidency results in Obama pulling a Grover Cleveland Redeemer (or is that a Grover Cleveland Steamer?) and winning the 2016 election with the following "Nixon vs. McGovern"-like beatdown:


I don't really know what the future brings, but Obama has said win or lose, this is his last campaign.
 
2012-11-06 12:09:32 PM

DamnYankees: I guess I might as well port over all the information:

I'll be keeping track of all this in an excel file and once everything is called I'll give the winner a month of TF for free.

My prediction is 303-235 Obama, and he wins the popular vote 50.8 - 48.9. Here are the other predictions that have already been made:

DamnYankees 303 235 50.8 48.9
Aarontology 332 206 50.6 48.5
TheCharmerUnderMe 328 210 50.5 48.8
NowhereMon  304 234 51 48
OtherLittleGuy 290 248 49.3 48.9
The Great EZE  303 235 50.2 48.6
Majick Thise 304 234 49.8 48
mrshowrules 284 254
GAT_00  285 253 50.4 49.2
NuttierThanEver  304 234 50.4 48.1
hillbillypharmacist 290 248 49.8 47.4
propasaurus 305 233 50.6 48.5


DAMN
move it to a google datasheet so everyone can see it ...
hell, go crazy and let us edit it too? nah, might be too crazy
 
2012-11-06 12:13:22 PM

namatad: DAMN
move it to a google datasheet so everyone can see it ...
hell, go crazy and let us edit it too? nah, might be too crazy


No, no editing. I'm not gonna change the results if someone changes their mind at this point. For some reason Google Docs isn't letting me import the spreadsheet.
 
2012-11-06 12:15:17 PM

DamnYankees: namatad: DAMN
move it to a google datasheet so everyone can see it ...
hell, go crazy and let us edit it too? nah, might be too crazy

No, no editing. I'm not gonna change the results if someone changes their mind at this point. For some reason Google Docs isn't letting me import the spreadsheet.


copy and paste?
:D
 
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