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(270 To Win)   Fark Electoral College Contest: post your best guesstimate of how the final electoral college map will look after Tuesday's election. Up for grabs: bragging rights for the next four years in the Politics tab   (270towin.com) divider line 524
    More: Spiffy, political sciences, u.s president  
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1464 clicks; posted to Politics » on 05 Nov 2012 at 1:39 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-05 05:45:47 PM  
i.imgur.com
 
2012-11-05 05:49:18 PM  
POTUS 303 to 235
 
2012-11-05 05:55:04 PM  

Corvus: DamnYankees: Corvus: I believe 330 is.

I don't see how 330 is possible. Do you mean 332?

AM I looking at this wrong?

[i.imgur.com image 373x251]

It looks like to me around 330 has the highest probability of all outcomes. 303 is about the 2nd highest.


It looks like 330 but it is 332. 303+29 for Florida. Note the parallel 333 for the Omaha probability.
 
2012-11-05 05:59:33 PM  

Waxing_Chewbacca: POTUS 303 to 235


Oh... and pop vote to the president at 50.7%
 
2012-11-05 06:03:25 PM  

DamnYankees: timujin: So it that just a guess?

Yeah, just a guess for tie-breaking sake.


ah, well, I doubt I have much to worry about there, I can't imagine anyone else has such stupid numbers...

*quick ctrl-f*

Oops, sorry Harry.

Um... so, to continue the crazy, 56% Obama, 42% Romney

/and the other 2% for Timujin, who's gonna show the Republicans what real rape and pillaging is all about
 
2012-11-05 06:05:37 PM  
Obama - 332
Romney - 206

The Metrosexul Kenyan Crypto-Islamic Usurper takes all of the swing states except NC.

Popular vote:

Obama - 51.1
Romney - 48.6
 
2012-11-05 06:07:41 PM  

Clowns are a Ten: phritz: A second prediction, which I like to call "Oh please god no:"
[25.media.tumblr.com image 500x354]
O266-R254, with a recount in Ohio that by law cannot be completed until provisional ballots can be counted, which will take weeks.

Obama isn't losing Nevada while taking Colorado. And if Nevada is gone then that means Ohio would be looooooooooooooooong gone.


Whoops, right, should have CO red and NV blue. I stand by the "Oh god no" part, though.
 
2012-11-05 06:08:31 PM  
put me in the 332 EVs for Obama camp. i guess i'll go with 50.1% to 48.6%, Obama wins popular vote, 1.5% to third parties.
 
2012-11-05 06:08:57 PM  
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bnqY

Obama - 50.2%
Romney - 49.7%
 
2012-11-05 06:09:00 PM  
Even after looking at other (non-538) maps 303 to 235 sounds the most likely.
 
2012-11-05 06:09:16 PM  

Seacop: Romney's got this.

Three statisticals..

1. 30% of Hillary supporters for Romney
2. 1 in 7 undecided
3. Silent Majority

Romney wins. You guys are gonna be sooo pissed off.



I think they both suck and we are doomed regardless of who wins tomorrow.

But, if you are correct, the butthurt and wailing and gnashing of teeth in here will be epic. We will need popcorn in bulk.
 
2012-11-05 06:10:42 PM  
E.C. 313 to O
PV 51.3 to O
 
2012-11-05 06:11:17 PM  
http://www.electionprojection.com/2012elections/president12.php
http://electoral-vote.com/
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

all have 303/235 as one of the most likely outcome and they even use slightly different methodologies.
 
2012-11-05 06:14:13 PM  

Corvus: http://www.electionprojection.com/2012elections/president12.php
http://electoral-vote.com/
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

all have 303/235 as one of the most likely outcome and they even use slightly different methodologies.


So does Real Clear Politics when you put in the No Toss Ups.
 
2012-11-05 06:15:23 PM  

Seacop: Romney's got this.

Three statisticals..

1. 30% of Hillary supporters for Romney

<gary_coleman.jpg>
2. 1 in 7 undecided
Anyone who is still undecided is unlikely to have the brainpower to find their local polling station
3. Silent Majority
The "silent majority" are the same 37% or so who don't bother voting.

Romney wins. You guys are gonna be sooo pissed off.
 
2012-11-05 06:15:53 PM  

soupafi: what i would like to see happen:
link


The real possibility we won't even be able to declare a winner tomorrow is bad enough. You want a tie and the disgusting media orgy and whining from both sides that would cause?

You own stock in a media conglomerate or something?
 
2012-11-05 06:17:59 PM  
A lot of you are going to lose lots of money if you are betting on O. All the polls are based on 2008 turnout, which is heavily dem. 2012 is more like R +3. Watch.
 
2012-11-05 06:24:09 PM  
I can't stop laughing at everyone taking the "3 Statisticals" spoofs seriously

t1.gstatic.com
 
2012-11-05 06:27:29 PM  
i.imgur.com
 
2012-11-05 06:29:20 PM  
303-235 Obama

49.6 - 47.1 Obama
 
2012-11-05 06:31:55 PM  

Rockdrummer: A lot of you are going to lose lots of money if you are betting on O. All the polls are based on 2008 turnout, which is heavily dem. 2012 is more like R +3. Watch.


No they are not. They usually actually just grab whatever sampling of R/D that they get. They don't actually adjust them, that's what the Republicans are complaining about.
 
2012-11-05 06:33:23 PM  
The smart money right now is on 303 for Obama with Romney taking Florida, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 332. Anything more than that would be unexpected.
 
2012-11-05 06:35:35 PM  

Communist_Manifesto: I can't stop laughing at everyone taking the "3 Statisticals" spoofs seriously

t1.gstatic.com


Dammit, I can't keep up with all of them.
 
2012-11-05 06:36:13 PM  
always wanted to try total fark, so here goes
O-270,49.5%
R-268,48.9%
rest of PV goes to random 3rd partiers
 
2012-11-05 06:38:48 PM  
map: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bnEE
 
2012-11-05 06:39:18 PM  

Rockdrummer: A lot of you are going to lose lots of money if you are betting on O. All the polls are based on 2008 turnout, which is heavily dem. 2012 is more like R +3. Watch.


Wrong!

Poll Averages Have No History of Consistent Partisan Bias - fivethirtyeight

But pollsters, at least if they are following the industry's standard guidelines, do not choose how many Democrats, Republicans or independent voters to put into their samples - any more than they choose the number of voters for Mr. Obama or Mitt Romney. Instead, this is determined by the responses of the voters that they reach after calling random numbers from telephone directories or registered voter lists.


In fact what you are arguing is what the Republicans are calling "unskewed polls". You should actually get your talking points straight because you are saying what the polls are doing is correct but what the Republicans are doing is wrong.
 
2012-11-05 06:42:15 PM  
303 - 235, 50.1 - 49.9, 53 seats for D/I in the Senate, still R lead in the House but I don't follow that do I can't say for sure there. They'll lose seats, but not enough.
 
2012-11-05 06:42:52 PM  
img502.imageshack.us

Only one I wasn't too sure about was Florida.

and as far as the Popular vote goes

Obama: 50.6
Romney: 48.4
Other: 1.0
 
2012-11-05 06:44:14 PM  
I'm late to the party as usual, but here's my wishful thinking prediction (I'm sure the actual results will be closer but still enough for an O win):

O: 332
R: 206

Popular vote:
O: 50.8%
R: 46.6%
Other*: 2.6%

*Third parties & "none of the above" lumped together since ballots vary by state
 
2012-11-05 06:44:17 PM  

krej55: always wanted to try total fark, so here goes


You ain't gonna get it that way.
 
2012-11-05 06:46:49 PM  

DamnYankees: Just FYI, for all you people not posting popular vote predictions, you are pretty much guaranteed not to win. There's almost certainly going to be a tie for the winning EV count. I don't know if anyone cares, just a heads up.


I dunno if you're still around, but I didn't do a PV earlier. Mostly because I don't really expect to win. But anyways, you can add mine if you are still doing it.

Obama: 290, 50.2
Romney: 248, 48.7
Other: 0, 1.1
 
2012-11-05 06:51:47 PM  

timujin: Seacop: Romney's got this.

Three statisticals..

1. 30% of Hillary supporters for Romney <gary_coleman.jpg>
2. 1 in 7 undecided Anyone who is still undecided is unlikely to have the brainpower to find their local polling station
3. Silent Majority The "silent majority" are the same 37% or so who don't bother voting.

Romney wins. You guys are gonna be sooo pissed off.


you need to google garypdx
 
2012-11-05 06:52:18 PM  

Corvus: aedude01: As much as I hate to say it, here's my prediction for tomorrow:

Gaius Baltar 307
Laura Roslin 231

If you think about Gaius Baltar and Mitt Romney are a lot a like.


Not really. Roslin was the religious one that saw "visions." She also outlawed abortion in her first term, and approved of waterboarding-like interrogation techniques.

sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net

/Made before the Final Cylon reveal during the Palin/McCain campaign.
 
2012-11-05 07:05:33 PM  
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bnOc
My best guess: Giant DOuche 294 / TuRd Sandwich 244
 
2012-11-05 07:07:49 PM  
O: 332
R: 206

Popular vote:
O: 50.6%
R: 48.8%
 
2012-11-05 07:17:18 PM  
270 Romney
268 Obama

BOOM! US explodes in a civil/race war. Canada sits back rubbing its hands together going "Eeeeeexcellent". Then our army of gay marriaged soldiers swoop in and take over.

MWAAA-HA-HAAAAAAAA!
 
2012-11-05 07:21:50 PM  

NobleHam: The smart money right now is on 303 for Obama with Romney taking Florida, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 332. Anything more than that would be unexpected.


Oh, and popular vote...

Obama - 50.3%
Romney - 49.2%
Other - 1.1%
 
2012-11-05 07:38:49 PM  

Seacop: timujin: Seacop: Romney's got this.

Three statisticals..

1. 30% of Hillary supporters for Romney <gary_coleman.jpg>
2. 1 in 7 undecided Anyone who is still undecided is unlikely to have the brainpower to find their local polling station
3. Silent Majority The "silent majority" are the same 37% or so who don't bother voting.

Romney wins. You guys are gonna be sooo pissed off.

you need to google garypdx


I'm pretty sure I don't want that in my browser history.
 
2012-11-05 07:48:32 PM  
sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net

Ok here's my final map. I left Ohio and Florida as 'too close to call' due to the massive amounts of vote suppression by the state governments there. Clearly Obama doesn't need them to win so this is my 'election night map' prediction. In the end I think FL will got to Romney and Ohio to Obama.

Once the lawyers are done I think it'll be something like this:
Obama 303
Romney 235
 
2012-11-05 07:48:55 PM  
Obama 290, Romney 248.

Romney takes the following which Obama won last time: Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, the Omaha based district in Nebraska and very narrowly, Virginia, which won't be called until Wednesday afternoon. Reasonably close but not enough to win.

Senate: Republicans only pick up 1 seat. They really picked bad candidates in several states
House: Democrats do NOT take back the House. As a matter fact they actually lose a net of about 5 seats. And Michele Bachmann and Paul Ryan EASILY win re-election.

Let's see if I'm any good at this.
 
2012-11-05 07:49:58 PM  
Yeah, put me in the 290/248 column. Romney takes Florida, NC, and Virgina but not much else.

Oh, and 48-47 popular vote. For Romney. For the lulz.
 
2012-11-05 07:50:11 PM  

Corvus: Rockdrummer: A lot of you are going to lose lots of money if you are betting on O. All the polls are based on 2008 turnout, which is heavily dem. 2012 is more like R +3. Watch.

Wrong!

Poll Averages Have No History of Consistent Partisan Bias - fivethirtyeight

But pollsters, at least if they are following the industry's standard guidelines, do not choose how many Democrats, Republicans or independent voters to put into their samples - any more than they choose the number of voters for Mr. Obama or Mitt Romney. Instead, this is determined by the responses of the voters that they reach after calling random numbers from telephone directories or registered voter lists.

In fact what you are arguing is what the Republicans are calling "unskewed polls". You should actually get your talking points straight because you are saying what the polls are doing is correct but what the Republicans are doing is wrong.


Nate Silver is not an authority on this. He's thin and gay. That makes him non-credible.
 
2012-11-05 07:52:03 PM  
O 294
R 244

Romney flips Colorado, the rest stick to the current polls.

Popular vote O 49.5 / R 49 / I 1.5
 
2012-11-05 07:53:17 PM  

NobleHam: NobleHam: The smart money right now is on 303 for Obama with Romney taking Florida, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 332. Anything more than that would be unexpected.

Oh, and popular vote...

Obama - 50.3%
Romney - 49.2%
Other - 1.1%


I'm think Obama is going to lose Florida because it's Florida and they are not well mentally. I would be happy for Obama to win without Florida. The fact that the race is so close there is very bad for Romney.
 
2012-11-05 08:08:35 PM  
You people thinking Obama will take VA are off your ass.
 
2012-11-05 08:11:43 PM  

tjfly: You people thinking Obama will take VA are off your ass.


So certain are you?
 
2012-11-05 08:17:56 PM  

tjfly: You people thinking Obama will take VA are off your ass.


Well Obama is leading very slightly in Virginia in the RCP poll of polls. Even Rasmussen has it within the margin of air (2 points).

Saying someone is "off their ass" is just silly when it is basically a coin flip.
 
2012-11-05 08:24:46 PM  

tjfly: You people thinking Obama will take VA are off your ass.

All Virginia polls this week:
Obama Romney Started Finished Polling agency
47% 46% Nov 02 Nov 04 IPSOS
51% 47% Nov 03 Nov 04 PPP
50% 44% Nov 01 Nov 03 Zogby
49% 44% Oct 30 Nov 01 IPSOS
49% 46% Oct 30 Oct 31 PPP
49% 48% Oct 30 Oct 30 Pulse Opinion Research
45% 49% Oct 27 Oct 29 Zogby
48% 46% Oct 27 Oct 30 IPSOS
49% 47% Oct 23 Oct 28 Quinnipiac
 
2012-11-05 08:26:30 PM  

GoSlash27: 50% 44% Nov 01 Nov 03 Zogby


GoSlash27: 45% 49% Oct 27 Oct 29 Zogby


How is this possible? Do they stink at polling THAT badly?
 
2012-11-05 08:27:06 PM  
O: 310
R: 210
Independent: whatever is left over.
 
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