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(270 To Win)   Fark Electoral College Contest: post your best guesstimate of how the final electoral college map will look after Tuesday's election. Up for grabs: bragging rights for the next four years in the Politics tab   (270towin.com) divider line 524
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1462 clicks; posted to Politics » on 05 Nov 2012 at 1:39 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-05 04:43:26 PM  
2016 544 blog predictions
Biden/Clinton 320
Christie/Rice 224
Guam and Puerto Rico additions, TX,NC goes BLUE, OR goes RED
 
2012-11-05 04:43:47 PM  

aedude01: As much as I hate to say it, here's my prediction for tomorrow:

Gaius Baltar 307
Laura Roslin 231


If you think about Gaius Baltar and Mitt Romney are a lot a like.
 
2012-11-05 04:44:24 PM  
O - 310
R - 224

O - 50.9
R - 48.2

/Bonus: O loses Ohio, but takes FL and Va
 
2012-11-05 04:44:27 PM  

Corvus: thornhill: Corvus: thornhill: I'm also going with the Nate Silver map: 303 to 235.

Popular vote:

Obama: 49.7%
Romney: 49.4%

That 303 is an average based on many outcomes. Not what a likely or even a possible outcome is.

Not sure if you're trolling or not.

303 is the total EV of all the states Silver forecasts Obama having a 50% or greater probability of winning.

I believe 330 is.


330 has been the highest probability outcome for awhile, @ 13-16%
 
2012-11-05 04:45:10 PM  

neritz: O - 310
R - 224

O - 50.9
R - 48.2

/Bonus: O loses Ohio, but takes FL and Va


That doesn't add up to 538.
 
2012-11-05 04:46:35 PM  

neritz: O - 310
R - 224

O - 50.9
R - 48.2

/Bonus: O loses Ohio, but takes FL and Va


shiat, i forgot NH.
O - 310
R - 228
 
2012-11-05 04:46:41 PM  

GardenWeasel: Corvus: thornhill: Corvus: thornhill: I'm also going with the Nate Silver map: 303 to 235.

Popular vote:

Obama: 49.7%
Romney: 49.4%

That 303 is an average based on many outcomes. Not what a likely or even a possible outcome is.

Not sure if you're trolling or not.

303 is the total EV of all the states Silver forecasts Obama having a 50% or greater probability of winning.

I believe 330 is.

330 has been the highest probability outcome for awhile, @ 13-16%


i.imgur.com
 
2012-11-05 04:47:12 PM  
Obama 295- 49.6
Romney 243 - 49.6
 
2012-11-05 04:47:18 PM  

DamnYankees: Corvus: I believe 330 is.

I don't see how 330 is possible. Do you mean 332?


AM I looking at this wrong?

i.imgur.com

It looks like to me around 330 has the highest probability of all outcomes. 303 is about the 2nd highest.
 
2012-11-05 04:47:34 PM  

ThatBozGuy: 2016 544 blog predictions
Biden/Clinton 320
Christie/Rice 224
Guam and Puerto Rico additions, TX,NC goes BLUE, OR goes RED


if TX goes blue, it's going to be hard to get a Republican into office for a long long time.
 
2012-11-05 04:48:32 PM  

Corvus: thornhill: Corvus: thornhill: I'm also going with the Nate Silver map: 303 to 235.

Popular vote:

Obama: 49.7%
Romney: 49.4%

That 303 is an average based on many outcomes. Not what a likely or even a possible outcome is.

Not sure if you're trolling or not.

303 is the total EV of all the states Silver forecasts Obama having a 50% or greater probability of winning.

I believe 330 is.


You believe wrong.
 
2012-11-05 04:48:33 PM  

Corvus: It looks like to me around 330 has the highest probability of all outcomes. 303 is about the 2nd highest.


All I'm saying is its 332, not 330. Florida has 29 votes, so the jump from 303 would be 332.
 
2012-11-05 04:49:06 PM  

DamnYankees: Corvus: It looks like to me around 330 has the highest probability of all outcomes. 303 is about the 2nd highest.

All I'm saying is its 332, not 330. Florida has 29 votes, so the jump from 303 would be 332.


Ok 332 then.
 
2012-11-05 04:49:21 PM  

Majick Thise: [www.macmeisters.com image 800x552]


They've gerrymandered Nebraska since 2008 to prevent that from happening again.
 
2012-11-05 04:49:28 PM  
A second prediction, which I like to call "Oh please god no:"
25.media.tumblr.com
O266-R254, with a recount in Ohio that by law cannot be completed until provisional ballots can be counted, which will take weeks.
 
2012-11-05 04:49:41 PM  

DamnYankees: Corvus: It looks like to me around 330 has the highest probability of all outcomes. 303 is about the 2nd highest.

All I'm saying is its 332, not 330. Florida has 29 votes, so the jump from 303 would be 332.


It's still "more likely" than 303 then.
 
2012-11-05 04:51:12 PM  

Corvus: DamnYankees: Corvus: It looks like to me around 330 has the highest probability of all outcomes. 303 is about the 2nd highest.

All I'm saying is its 332, not 330. Florida has 29 votes, so the jump from 303 would be 332.

It's still "more likely" than 303 then.


According to Silver, yes.Which is weird since he has Romney favored in FL.
 
2012-11-05 04:51:39 PM  
sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net

Just a guess...
 
2012-11-05 04:52:05 PM  

DamnYankees: Current histogram of predictions:


HEY! My prediction is not on there. I think it was 413 to seven or something stupid like that.

Nor the Ron Paul one either.

RON PAUL!!!

DEVOLUTION!!
 
2012-11-05 04:52:49 PM  
Obama 290 49.5%
Romney 248 48.2%
 
2012-11-05 04:52:58 PM  

Corvus: DamnYankees: Corvus: It looks like to me around 330 has the highest probability of all outcomes. 303 is about the 2nd highest.

All I'm saying is its 332, not 330. Florida has 29 votes, so the jump from 303 would be 332.

It's still "more likely" than 303 then.


I put "more likely in quotes" because it's not that likely to happen it's just the most likely possibility.

Some idiot will be on here tomorrow trying to say Nate was wrong because the "most likely" out come didn't happen even though it had less than a 20% chance of happening.
 
2012-11-05 04:53:40 PM  

ManateeGag: ThatBozGuy: 2016 544 blog predictions
Biden/Clinton 320
Christie/Rice 224
Guam and Puerto Rico additions, TX,NC goes BLUE, OR goes RED

if TX goes blue, it's going to be hard to get a Republican into office for a long long time.


Almost all of the Republican national redistricting of the last 4 years has been based on TX going blue in the next 6 years, Its the Silicon overtaking the Oil, in places like Austin and the Blue latino conversion rate that will make flip.
 
2012-11-05 04:53:51 PM  

DamnYankees: Corvus: DamnYankees: Corvus: It looks like to me around 330 has the highest probability of all outcomes. 303 is about the 2nd highest.

All I'm saying is its 332, not 330. Florida has 29 votes, so the jump from 303 would be 332.

It's still "more likely" than 303 then.

According to Silver, yes.Which is weird since he has Romney favored in FL.


Right but it might have gain percentages just because multiple scenarios can give the same totals.
 
2012-11-05 04:53:54 PM  

Pixiest: [sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net image 850x710]

Just a guess...


This is your brain on drugs...
 
2012-11-05 04:54:12 PM  

DamnYankees: Corvus: DamnYankees: Corvus: It looks like to me around 330 has the highest probability of all outcomes. 303 is about the 2nd highest.

All I'm saying is its 332, not 330. Florida has 29 votes, so the jump from 303 would be 332.

It's still "more likely" than 303 then.

According to Silver, yes.Which is weird since he has Romney favored in FL.


Well, Nate *did* get 49/50 right the last Presidential Election. Considering what we've already read on this thread...he could get FL wrong.
 
2012-11-05 04:54:29 PM  
The trouble with Electoral College
 
2012-11-05 04:55:21 PM  
O 332/52.0
R 206/47.2
0.8 of pv to random third party
 
2012-11-05 04:56:46 PM  

DamnYankees: doyner: Uuuuum, no. I was saying my EV prediction was the same as Corvus'.

Ah ok. Didn't get that. Considering your prediction entered.


You're maintaining the official file?
 
2012-11-05 04:57:25 PM  

doyner: DamnYankees: doyner: Uuuuum, no. I was saying my EV prediction was the same as Corvus'.

Ah ok. Didn't get that. Considering your prediction entered.

You're maintaining the official file?


Yup.
 
2012-11-05 04:58:15 PM  

ALC59: The trouble with Electoral College


and the good thing about electoral college:

A) The storm in New Jersey and New York isn't going to fark the entire vote count for the rest of the nation.
B) One state suppressing the vote limits the amount of damage done to mostly that state and governors of one state can't just try to suppress the entire vote of their state if it is mostly of the other party.
C) Laws for every state are different so that would mean you could be 1 national vote in one state while not being a national vote in another state because everyone had different rules.
 
2012-11-05 04:59:58 PM  
Difference from last year: Obama - IN and NC, otherwise unchanged.
 
2012-11-05 05:02:36 PM  
Just remember if we didn't have the Electoral College right now Democrats would be biatching for a delay in the elections in NY and NJ and Republicans would be trying to stop it. Why they don't care now is that it's a statewide election not national so the outcome is going to be the same.
 
2012-11-05 05:04:35 PM  

Corvus: Just remember if we didn't have the Electoral College right now Democrats would be biatching for a delay in the elections in NY and NJ and Republicans would be trying to stop it. Why they don't care now is that it's a statewide election not national so the outcome is going to be the same.


Doubt it; don't think the delay either way was going to stop NY and NJ turning blue. Now were the PV in effect and not the EC, you'd have a point.
 
2012-11-05 05:06:09 PM  

Rwa2play: Corvus: Just remember if we didn't have the Electoral College right now Democrats would be biatching for a delay in the elections in NY and NJ and Republicans would be trying to stop it. Why they don't care now is that it's a statewide election not national so the outcome is going to be the same.

Doubt it; don't think the delay either way was going to stop NY and NJ turning blue. Now were the PV in effect and not the EC, you'd have a point.


Right. that is exactly the point I am making. If it was PV then we would be having a battle on election dates in those states.
 
2012-11-05 05:06:21 PM  
what i would like to see happen:
link
 
2012-11-05 05:07:09 PM  

Corvus: thornhill: I'm also going with the Nate Silver map: 303 to 235.

Popular vote:

Obama: 49.7%
Romney: 49.4%

That 303 is an average based on many outcomes. Not what a likely or even a possible outcome is.


303 EV for Obama is actually a highly plausible, easily obtained outcome: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bmSa
 
2012-11-05 05:07:50 PM  

DamnYankees: doyner: DamnYankees: doyner: Uuuuum, no. I was saying my EV prediction was the same as Corvus'.

Ah ok. Didn't get that. Considering your prediction entered.

You're maintaining the official file?

Yup.


Ok. Like before--official prediction:
i50.tinypic.com
 
2012-11-05 05:08:50 PM  

soupafi: what i would like to see happen:
link


Some men just want to watch the world burn.
 
2012-11-05 05:13:03 PM  

qorkfiend: 303 EV for Obama is actually a highly plausible, easily obtained outcome: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bmSa


Yes it was even the prediction I made earlier. I already point out I thought it was referring to the other value on the 538 site.
 
2012-11-05 05:14:10 PM  

soupafi: what i would like to see happen:
link


Why?
 
2012-11-05 05:14:47 PM  

GardenWeasel: soupafi: what i would like to see happen:
link

Why?


Some men just want to watch the world burn.
 
2012-11-05 05:16:10 PM  

DamnYankees: GardenWeasel: soupafi: what i would like to see happen:
link

Why?

Some men just want to watch the world burn.


Or he wants Gary Johnson to have a better than zero chance of winning via the House vote.
 
2012-11-05 05:17:28 PM  

phritz: A second prediction, which I like to call "Oh please god no:"
[25.media.tumblr.com image 500x354]
O266-R254, with a recount in Ohio that by law cannot be completed until provisional ballots can be counted, which will take weeks.


Obama isn't losing Nevada while taking Colorado. And if Nevada is gone then that means Ohio would be looooooooooooooooong gone.
 
2012-11-05 05:17:50 PM  

GardenWeasel: soupafi: what i would like to see happen:
link

Why?


Because President Romney and Vice President Biden would bring teh lols!
 
2012-11-05 05:18:28 PM  

GardenWeasel: DamnYankees: GardenWeasel: soupafi: what i would like to see happen:
link

Why?

Some men just want to watch the world burn.

Or he wants Gary Johnson to have a better than zero chance of winning via the House vote.


Not. Gonna. Happen. The House would vote for Obama before it rewards someone from going outside of the two-party oligarchy.
 
2012-11-05 05:32:59 PM  

Vodka Zombie: Obama: 1
Romney: 1

Why yes. I am that annoying dick on The Price is Right who says everything is a buck.


That only works if the rules state "without going over."
 
2012-11-05 05:38:33 PM  

NateGrey: "But I wouldn't be surprised if Nate changes his predictions at the very last minute so they almost echo mine, assuming he wants to be accurate rather than try to predict Obama winning."

- Dean Chambers from UnSkewedPolls


This guy is a walking shuffling, talking embodiment of the Dunning-Kruger Effect.
 
2012-11-05 05:39:20 PM  

DamnYankees: PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls
Y'all we have 2016 primary portions for our Florida, Iowa, and New Hampshire polls coming later in the week :)


NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!


i159.photobucket.com
 
2012-11-05 05:39:32 PM  
The election apparatuses in Wisconsin and Ohio are controlled by crooks. So there will be "shocking Republican upsets" in those two states. The rest will look like Nate Silver's map. So we're talking 303-28 = 275 for Obama. The popular vote total will be unpredictably screwed up by corrupted vote counts in Wisconsin and Ohio.
 
2012-11-05 05:42:07 PM  
Looks like we've slowed down a bit. Right now we're at 175 predictions. I'll keep open until 8 AM tomorrow.
 
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