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(270 To Win)   Fark Electoral College Contest: post your best guesstimate of how the final electoral college map will look after Tuesday's election. Up for grabs: bragging rights for the next four years in the Politics tab   (270towin.com) divider line 524
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1461 clicks; posted to Politics » on 05 Nov 2012 at 1:39 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-05 03:55:04 PM
i.imgur.com

PV

O: 49.9
R: 48.0

And we won't know until next Wednesday.
 
2012-11-05 03:58:19 PM
Obama 290 49.2%
Romney 238 48.4%
 
2012-11-05 03:58:31 PM
Romney-285
Obama- 253

Romney will take Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin and Colorado
 
2012-11-05 03:59:31 PM
303 Obama, with Romney taking Florida.
 
2012-11-05 04:02:37 PM
It would be amusing to see Obama lose Ohio due to the shenanigans there but win NH and VA and make it a moot point. Ah the wailing a gnashing of teeth.
 
2012-11-05 04:03:21 PM
Obama 306 Romney 232
 
2012-11-05 04:03:39 PM
Obama: 286
Romney: 252

/will suffer alcohol poisoning if Romney wins
//may need to dust off tin-foil hat from '04
 
2012-11-05 04:05:04 PM

Carn: Corvus: Carn: Obama: 303, 51%
Rmoney: 235, 48%
1% for potato

I kind of have a weird feeling if the right feels like Romney doesn't have much of a chance that Tea Party people might vote potato instead.

There's gonna be some Gary Johnson votes, that's for sure. I've been trying to convince my friends who don't vote to go vote anyway and if they don't like either guy then write in their own name or Mickey Mouse or whatever. The more people who did that would send a message.

/gotta participate if you want to complain. That's my rule.


That will be my vote tomorrow morning. I am somewhat (though not completely) sympathetic to the idea that voting for a third party is just hurting one or another candidate, but given I actually prefer Gary Johnson over Obama and Romney at this point, and since my vote is completely and utterly meaningless given my state will go Romney, I'd like to at least up the third party vote a bit in the probably naive hope that one day we bust out of this Republican/Democrat crap.
 
2012-11-05 04:06:36 PM

Lord Dimwit: It would be amusing to see Obama lose Ohio due to the shenanigans there but win NH and VA and make it a moot point. Ah the wailing a gnashing of teeth.


Obama has 60 ways to win without Ohio and Florida.
 
2012-11-05 04:07:12 PM

coeyagi: Mayonnaise-Americans have spoken.


I guffaw'd.
 
2012-11-05 04:08:17 PM

bullwrinkle: Romney-285
Obama- 253

Romney will take Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin and Colorado


LOL WUT?
 
2012-11-05 04:08:52 PM
Obama declares an end to the republic and ushers in the American Empire.

There is no election.
 
2012-11-05 04:10:13 PM

Mrtraveler01: bullwrinkle: Romney-285
Obama- 253

Romney will take Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin and Colorado

LOL WUT?


Especially after all the crap that's happened with Walker? Really? Wisconsin would riot in a big way.
 
2012-11-05 04:11:05 PM
Current histogram of predictions:

img.ctrlv.in
 
2012-11-05 04:11:26 PM
I'm going

Obama - 275 49.8
Rmoney- 263 50.2

For the lulz.
 
2012-11-05 04:12:04 PM
O- 332 50.3
R- 206 49.0
 
2012-11-05 04:16:45 PM
I don't believe these numbers, but I don't want to be the 20th person going with 303 or 548 numbers

O: 294
R: 244

Popular vote %49.4 to %49.4 tie to within a tenth.
 
2012-11-05 04:16:52 PM

DamnYankees: Current histogram of predictions:

[img.ctrlv.in image 850x485]


Huh, whaddayaknow... a bell curve. That is beautiful. And my positive outlier is exactly matched by a negative.
 
2012-11-05 04:17:36 PM
O - 303 50.6
R - 235 48.8
 
2012-11-05 04:18:15 PM
I'm estimating 292 Obama, 246 Romney.

54.3% Obama to 45.7 Rmoney.
 
2012-11-05 04:18:48 PM

DamnYankees: Current histogram of predictions:

[img.ctrlv.in image 850x485]


This is the official Fark prediction. You should post it on a real blog somewhere on the intertubes for posterity.
 
2012-11-05 04:20:10 PM

GardenWeasel: DamnYankees: Current histogram of predictions:

[img.ctrlv.in image 850x485]

Huh, whaddayaknow... a bell curve. That is beautiful. And my positive outlier is exactly matched by a negative.


This one is more accurate, since it more finely splits up the histogram. That previous one was lumping everything into groups of 5:

img.ctrlv.in
 
2012-11-05 04:20:15 PM
Obama wins 332-206. Carries Florida. Recount problems in Ohio.
 
2012-11-05 04:21:16 PM

thornhill: I'm also going with the Nate Silver map: 303 to 235.

Popular vote:

Obama: 49.7%
Romney: 49.4%


That 303 is an average based on many outcomes. Not what a likely or even a possible outcome is.
 
2012-11-05 04:21:36 PM
As much as I hate to say it, here's my prediction for tomorrow:

Gaius Baltar 307
Laura Roslin 231
 
2012-11-05 04:22:10 PM

DamnYankees: Current histogram of predictions:

[img.ctrlv.in image 850x485]


Nice.
 
2012-11-05 04:23:05 PM
Or 314 if Obama carries Florida and Husted legitimately steals Ohio by tampering with the tabulator machine software.
 
2012-11-05 04:23:15 PM

aedude01: As much as I hate to say it, here's my prediction for tomorrow:

Gaius Baltar 307
Laura Roslin 231


Baltar gets bum rap, he was very pragmatic. Hey are you not going to do what someone tells you to do when they have a gun to your head?
 
2012-11-05 04:23:28 PM

Corvus: That 303 is an average based on many outcomes. Not what a likely or even a possible outcome is.


303 is not an average - it's actually the most likely outcomes. That's the result if Obama wins all the battlegrounds other than FL and NC. That's why you're seeing these clusters:

332 - Romney wins NC
303 - Romney wins NC and FL
290 - Romney wins NC, FL and VA
 
2012-11-05 04:24:12 PM
Obama 302, Mittens 236.....
Obama 51.3, Mittens 48.5

That is all
 
2012-11-05 04:25:42 PM
PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls
Y'all we have 2016 primary portions for our Florida, Iowa, and New Hampshire polls coming later in the week :)



NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
 
2012-11-05 04:27:32 PM

DamnYankees: Corvus: That 303 is an average based on many outcomes. Not what a likely or even a possible outcome is.

303 is not an average - it's actually the most likely outcomes. That's the result if Obama wins all the battlegrounds other than FL and NC. That's why you're seeing these clusters:

332 - Romney wins NC
303 - Romney wins NC and FL
290 - Romney wins NC, FL and VA


Oh sorry I meant the 307.2 vs. 230.8

But 330 is more likely than 303 according to silver and his chart.
 
2012-11-05 04:27:35 PM
Obama 272
Romney 266

Romney takes Virginia and Ohio, loses Colorado. Book it, done.
 
2012-11-05 04:27:41 PM

DamnYankees: PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls
Y'all we have 2016 primary portions for our Florida, Iowa, and New Hampshire polls coming later in the week :)


NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!


PPP:

motores.com.py
 
2012-11-05 04:27:57 PM
O - 303
R - 235

O - 50.1
R - 48.1
"Rosanne Barr and G. Johnson, et al" - 1.8
 
2012-11-05 04:29:03 PM
Here's my guess...

Obama 299 EVs
Romney 239 EVs

Popular vote
Obama 50.2%
Romney 48.6%
 
2012-11-05 04:29:44 PM

DamnYankees: PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls
Y'all we have 2016 primary portions for our Florida, Iowa, and New Hampshire polls coming later in the week :)


NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

 
2012-11-05 04:30:09 PM

BKITU: DamnYankees: PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls
Y'all we have 2016 primary portions for our Florida, Iowa, and New Hampshire polls coming later in the week :)


NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

PPP:

[motores.com.py image 535x356]


The smiley face just makes the troll that much better.
 
2012-11-05 04:31:28 PM

DamnYankees: PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls
Y'all we have 2016 primary portions for our Florida, Iowa, and New Hampshire polls coming later in the week :)


NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!


fashionablygeek.com
 
2012-11-05 04:35:10 PM

DamnYankees: doyner: Corvus: here is mine:

[i.imgur.com image 820x592]

Mine as well. I also say Obama 50.1, Romney 48.3

doyner: Corvus: here is mine:

[i.imgur.com image 820x592]

Mine as well. I also say Obama 50.1, Romney 48.3

You are the first person to make a PV prediction and no EV prediction.


Uuuuum, no. I was saying my EV prediction was the same as Corvus'.
 
2012-11-05 04:36:16 PM

Corvus: thornhill: I'm also going with the Nate Silver map: 303 to 235.

Popular vote:

Obama: 49.7%
Romney: 49.4%

That 303 is an average based on many outcomes. Not what a likely or even a possible outcome is.


Not sure if you're trolling or not.

303 is the total EV of all the states Silver forecasts Obama having a 50% or greater probability of winning.
 
2012-11-05 04:36:46 PM
Ah, what the heck.

Obama: 293
Romney: 245
 
2012-11-05 04:36:51 PM

doyner: Uuuuum, no. I was saying my EV prediction was the same as Corvus'.


Ah ok. Didn't get that. Considering your prediction entered.
 
2012-11-05 04:37:31 PM
"But I wouldn't be surprised if Nate changes his predictions at the very last minute so they almost echo mine, assuming he wants to be accurate rather than try to predict Obama winning."

- Dean Chambers from UnSkewedPolls
 
2012-11-05 04:39:04 PM

NateGrey: "But I wouldn't be surprised if Nate changes his predictions at the very last minute so they almost echo mine, assuming he wants to be accurate rather than try to predict Obama winning."

- Dean Chambers from UnSkewedPolls


He also posted today that his model has Romney winning the white vote 66-33.

Think about how insane that is.
 
2012-11-05 04:41:17 PM

Pappas: shiat, did the math wrong.

EV
Obama: 303
Romney: 235

Popular
Obama: 48.5
Romney: 47.6%
Other: 3.9%


Beat me to it
Fartbongo: 303
RMoney: 235


Not going to stick my neck out on the popular vote due to a variety of shenanigans by people who won't be mentioned.
 
2012-11-05 04:42:22 PM

thornhill: Corvus: thornhill: I'm also going with the Nate Silver map: 303 to 235.

Popular vote:

Obama: 49.7%
Romney: 49.4%

That 303 is an average based on many outcomes. Not what a likely or even a possible outcome is.

Not sure if you're trolling or not.

303 is the total EV of all the states Silver forecasts Obama having a 50% or greater probability of winning.


I believe 330 is.
 
2012-11-05 04:42:52 PM
I'm guessing I'm not the first one to say this but that, "Stay up to date with Michelle Bachmann," ad made me think they were offering me a chance to *win* a date with Michelle Bachmann. I was wondering if she had finally figured out things at home...
 
2012-11-05 04:43:13 PM
Fine, 332-206, with all the usual suspects except Obama takes Colorado, Virginia, and Florida. Popular vote 50.6%-48.5%.

I don't really think Obama will take Florida, but for some reason, Nate Silver has that as the most likely single combination.
 
2012-11-05 04:43:22 PM

Corvus: I believe 330 is.


I don't see how 330 is possible. Do you mean 332?
 
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