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(270 To Win)   Fark Electoral College Contest: post your best guesstimate of how the final electoral college map will look after Tuesday's election. Up for grabs: bragging rights for the next four years in the Politics tab   (270towin.com) divider line 525
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1461 clicks; posted to Politics » on 05 Nov 2012 at 1:39 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-05 03:07:55 PM

organizmx: [i396.photobucket.com image 850x425]

Count me in as another Nate Silver believer. Though I do think with the way momentum is going, Obama can still take Florida, though I'm not banking on it.


But remember Nate thinks that only has a 20% chance of happening. So it's not favored but it's about the MOST likely to happen.

I really hope Obama takes Florida to shut the door on this thing.
 
2012-11-05 03:09:11 PM
N0bama: 281, 48.2%
Mittens Rmoneybot: 257, 48.4%

hurrrricaine sandy after effects limiting voter turnout in NY, NJ, and CT.
 
2012-11-05 03:09:39 PM

jonnyh: + Obama wins anyway, but so narrowly that he's still considered to be an illegitimate President. Four more years of stalemate. Republican wins the WH in 2016.


Well that's no problem. GOP said he was an illegitimate when he won by a landslide last time.
 
2012-11-05 03:10:19 PM
Link
Michigan could go either way but I bet looters outnumber producers. 

R 51% 321
O 48% 217
 
2012-11-05 03:14:48 PM

Corvus: here is mine:

[i.imgur.com image 820x592]


Mine as well. I also say Obama 50.1, Romney 48.3
 
2012-11-05 03:15:39 PM

GardenWeasel: qorkfiend: abb3w: DamnYankees: No, that was his actual prediction.

Nate Silver noted that his model gave that prediction by Kramer an 0.004% chance of being correct.

If Obama wins Texas, Arizona, Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, and Ohio, he has 417. One wonders which of the remaining states Mr. Kramer believes will make up the remaining 23 votes.

Easy

[i.imgur.com image 618x462]


I would assume that South Carolina goes blue FAR before South Dakota or Montana.
 
2012-11-05 03:15:45 PM
My prognostication:

Link

Romney 257 48.3%
Obama 281 50.2%
 
2012-11-05 03:16:12 PM
I predict George W. Bush will cancel the election and the right-leaning SCOTUS will appoint Skeletor "President for Life".
 
2012-11-05 03:16:29 PM

doyner: Corvus: here is mine:

[i.imgur.com image 820x592]

Mine as well. I also say Obama 50.1, Romney 48.3


doyner: Corvus: here is mine:

[i.imgur.com image 820x592]

Mine as well. I also say Obama 50.1, Romney 48.3


You are the first person to make a PV prediction and no EV prediction.
 
2012-11-05 03:17:02 PM
281 - Obama
256 - Romney
1 - RON PAUL

I'm guessing someone does it just for spite.
 
2012-11-05 03:17:37 PM

captnwolfy: Uberdeity: DamnYankees: Uberdeity: Obama 332 pop 49.8%
Romney 206 pop 49.9%
Third party pop .3%

There's no chance in hell Obama wins 332 EVs if he loses the popular vote, IMO.

That is why it is a bet. =) Also, I know that Northern Fla is in the Romney Camp, Southern Fla is in the Obama Camp... I live in Central Fla. We get to decide and I can tell you that for every Romney/Ryan anything I have seen, I am seeing 10-1 for Obama. totally anecdotal but hey .. it is something right?

Did you vote early? What were the lines like up there.

/In Palm Beach here
/2.5 hour wait...and that wasn't even the worst


Down in Clearwater. I haven't voted yet but my wife already has. Took about 30 mins. I am figuring tomorrow is going to take some time out of my day, but it is all cool. I just want to vote on the amendments... some of those are total shiat.
 
2012-11-05 03:18:25 PM
It's gonna be 332-206. Popular vote 50.6-48.4.
 
2012-11-05 03:18:47 PM
Obama wins 332-206. I believe that would mean Obama only loses Indiana, North Carolina, and Nebraska's 2nd congressional district from his 2008 victory.
 
2012-11-05 03:19:23 PM
OBAMA 281-257 50.3% of vote....and recount demanded in 3 states by GOP.
Expect 2000 mess revisited, further dividing out country.
 
2012-11-05 03:20:24 PM

FitzShivering: mrshowrules: FitzShivering: I am basing this on the fact that I think Democrats will not turn out to vote near the prior election cycle's numbers

The early voting turn-out for Liberals has been phenomenal in battle-ground States.

Have a look at this GOP memo Link

It looks like Obama might even take Florida. However, even if it is just a close loss in Florida, Obama is going to run most of the battle-ground States.

I'm having a really hard time reading that image. Dunno if it's my screen. Got a better quality link anywhere?


this one seems clearer to me:

Link

Plus video of reporter confront GOP office on it

Link
 
2012-11-05 03:23:06 PM
I'm also going with the Nate Silver map: 303 to 235.

Popular vote:

Obama: 49.7%
Romney: 49.4%
 
2012-11-05 03:23:14 PM
Obama: 5 0.8%
Romney: 4 0.6%
Ditka: 529 98.6%
 
2012-11-05 03:23:26 PM

jonnyh: My corollary predictions:

+ Nate Silver and the other math-heads are going be much less accurate this year. The current talk that's trying to discredit Silver and the like will get much stronger, and eventually be shared by both Red and Blue pundits. It'll work, but only partially.

+ There will be much talk, some by very respected voices, about how the polls didn't fully factor in changes in the electoral environment - the money, the voter suppression efforts, the lack of landlines, voters being purposely dishonest to "help" their "hometeam", etc. after the elections. Nate Silver takes the existing data and dumps it into a refined model that is extremely accurate in hindsight. He nails it in 2016.

+ The exit polls in certain parts of the country will be improbably out of whack. So much so that, again, respected voices will at least strongly infer fraud, if not call it out directly. They'll be shouted down, even by people sharing their ideology, as conspiracy theorists.

+ Obama wins anyway, but so narrowly that he's still considered to be an illegitimate President. Four more years of stalemate. Republican wins the WH in 2016.

//I really hope that I'm wrong across the boards here


As another article on the Politics Tab stated, the Republicans will go to war on each other either way. If Obama wins, that process will accelerate rapidly with an eye towards 2016.
 
2012-11-05 03:23:58 PM
Romney: 590.
Obama: negative 37.

Suck it, libs.
 
2012-11-05 03:24:00 PM

Smelly McUgly: GardenWeasel: qorkfiend: abb3w: DamnYankees: No, that was his actual prediction.

Nate Silver noted that his model gave that prediction by Kramer an 0.004% chance of being correct.

If Obama wins Texas, Arizona, Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, and Ohio, he has 417. One wonders which of the remaining states Mr. Kramer believes will make up the remaining 23 votes.

Easy

[i.imgur.com image 618x462]

I would assume that South Carolina goes blue FAR before South Dakota or Montana.


I was just trying to get to Cramer's 440. Leaving all else the same, replacing SD/MT with SC means removing MO, adding KY. (insert joke here)
 
2012-11-05 03:25:07 PM

GardenWeasel: Smelly McUgly: GardenWeasel: qorkfiend: abb3w: DamnYankees: No, that was his actual prediction.

Nate Silver noted that his model gave that prediction by Kramer an 0.004% chance of being correct.

If Obama wins Texas, Arizona, Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, and Ohio, he has 417. One wonders which of the remaining states Mr. Kramer believes will make up the remaining 23 votes.

Easy

[i.imgur.com image 618x462]

I would assume that South Carolina goes blue FAR before South Dakota or Montana.

I was just trying to get to Cramer's 440. Leaving all else the same, replacing SD/MT with SC means removing MO, adding KY. (insert joke here)


*AND* GA
 
2012-11-05 03:27:07 PM
Obama 347 (50.9), Romney 191 (49.2)
 
2012-11-05 03:28:34 PM
Obama 290 51.6%
Romney 248 48.1%
 
2012-11-05 03:29:14 PM

NOT a streetlight: Obama 347 (50.9), Romney 191 (49.2)


You are the first person to predict that, between the two of them, Romney and Obama will get OVER 100% of the vote.
 
2012-11-05 03:30:54 PM
I look forward to the teatards at fark like tenpoundsoffeces get all pissy and stampy when their guy loses.
 
2012-11-05 03:31:11 PM
for those saying Indiana will go blue again... I admit it is a stronger possibility than most people think but indiana votes dem once every 40 years or so and 2008 was probably it. Since 1900 we've supported Wilsons 1st term but not his second, FDR we supported for a record breaking 2 terms but did not support him for his 3rd or 4th term. LBJ got one term from us but that was a sympathy vote for Kennedy being killed.* We supported Obama in 2008. Indiana did NOT support Kennedy in 1960 and that gives us hoosiers the dubious distinction of having supported Nixon THREE times (1960, 1968, 1972)


*Indiana people around my part of it anyway, have a thing about looks. They couldn't be seen voting republican after Kennedy was killed even though they didn't vote for JFK in the first place. Christian hoosiers would not be seen in church in less than their sunday best clothes because it's about being seen getting religion not about actually getting religion. If no one could see hoosiers going to church most of them wouldn't. The Obama stickers on my car are a scandal, not because I support him but because people can see me doing it. It's weird here..
 
2012-11-05 03:31:40 PM

Rwa2play: phritz: O 314 - R 224
O takes loses New Hampshire and Florida but gets NC ... why not.
Popular vote: O 49.7 - R 48.8
Senate 54 D+I - 46 R

I'll say that it would be funny as hell if Obama won VA and NC...but if he were to win those two I think he'd also win FL.


3 Statisticals:
1. Obama's ground game well suited for NC's large, minority-dominated population centers
2. Gotta pick SOME upsets
3. No one else had 314

But yeah, mostly I'm just wishing NC would hurry up and turn blue.
 
2012-11-05 03:32:01 PM

DamnYankees: NOT a streetlight: Obama 347 (50.9), Romney 191 (49.2)

You are the first person to predict that, between the two of them, Romney and Obama will get OVER 100% of the vote.


Hey, it could happen.
 
2012-11-05 03:33:35 PM
www.ivandavidoff.com

Ok, the map is a little outdated. Actual prediction:


O: 294
R: 244
 
2012-11-05 03:35:50 PM
Obama 303 - 49.32%
Romney 235 - 48.85%
 
2012-11-05 03:36:38 PM
Random fact - so far, the median results are 303-235 EV win for Obama, and a 50.2-48.6 win in the PV.

nmrsnr is the only person to make exactly this prediction. Smelly McUgly predicted exactly that PV spread, and 26 people have selected this EV spread.
 
2012-11-05 03:38:26 PM
315 Obama - 223 Romney.

O takes VA, OH, IA, WI, CO, NV, AZ and NE-02.
R takes FL, NC.

Popular Vote 51 O - 47 R - 1.5 J - 0.5 S.
 
2012-11-05 03:38:30 PM

mrshowrules: FitzShivering: mrshowrules: FitzShivering: I am basing this on the fact that I think Democrats will not turn out to vote near the prior election cycle's numbers

The early voting turn-out for Liberals has been phenomenal in battle-ground States.

Have a look at this GOP memo Link

It looks like Obama might even take Florida. However, even if it is just a close loss in Florida, Obama is going to run most of the battle-ground States.

I'm having a really hard time reading that image. Dunno if it's my screen. Got a better quality link anywhere?

this one seems clearer to me:

Link

Plus video of reporter confront GOP office on it

Link


Nice; welp, not counting my chickens yet. If Election Day voting turns out strongly for the Dems, Obama takes the state no matter what Rick Scott and his hoods do.
 
2012-11-05 03:39:44 PM

doyner: Corvus: here is mine:

[i.imgur.com image 820x592]

Mine as well. I also say Obama 50.1, Romney 48.3


That's a mandate!
 
2012-11-05 03:41:08 PM
Nobody here thinks Randall Terry will get a split of Nebraska's EV? Have you not seen his influential ads?
 
2012-11-05 03:41:45 PM
Here's my prediction.

Romney 49.8, Obama 47.6
Romney 285, Obama 253

Romney takes McCain 08 states + NH, IN, NC, VA, OH, IA, and CO.

Electoral College map
 
2012-11-05 03:43:01 PM
This is not what I want to happen. If I get a month of TF off this, I am going to be ashamed.

Link

EVs: Romney 285, Obama 253.
Popular Vote: Romney 50.1, Obama 49.0.
 
2012-11-05 03:43:46 PM

WombatControl: Here's my prediction.

Romney 49.8, Obama 47.6
Romney 285, Obama 253

Romney takes McCain 08 states + NH, IN, NC, VA, OH, IA, and CO.

Electoral College map


In all sincerity, thanks for putting up your good faith prediction. We mock the shiat out of you here, but you hang in there. We'll see who ends up right!
 
2012-11-05 03:43:46 PM

WombatControl: Here's my prediction.

Romney 49.8, Obama 47.6
Romney 285, Obama 253

Romney takes McCain 08 states + NH, IN, NC, VA, OH, IA, and CO.

Electoral College map


Awesome. Screenshotted for tomorrow.
 
2012-11-05 03:44:11 PM

Corvus: Carn: Obama: 303, 51%
Rmoney: 235, 48%
1% for potato

I kind of have a weird feeling if the right feels like Romney doesn't have much of a chance that Tea Party people might vote potato instead.


There's gonna be some Gary Johnson votes, that's for sure. I've been trying to convince my friends who don't vote to go vote anyway and if they don't like either guy then write in their own name or Mickey Mouse or whatever. The more people who did that would send a message.

/gotta participate if you want to complain. That's my rule.
 
2012-11-05 03:45:26 PM

WombatControl: Here's my prediction.

Romney 49.8, Obama 47.6
Romney 285, Obama 253

Romney takes McCain 08 states + NH, IN, NC, VA, OH, IA, and CO.

Electoral College map


static5.businessinsider.com

Mayonnaise-Americans have spoken.
 
2012-11-05 03:45:39 PM

coeyagi: WombatControl: Here's my prediction.

Romney 49.8, Obama 47.6
Romney 285, Obama 253

Romney takes McCain 08 states + NH, IN, NC, VA, OH, IA, and CO.

Electoral College map

Awesome. Screenshotted for tomorrow.


Your optimism is inspiring.

About it ending tomorrow, that is.
 
2012-11-05 03:47:01 PM

maniacbastard: I look forward to the teatards at fark like tenpoundsoffeces get all pissy and stampy when their guy loses.


Some of the usual suspects took a couple days off from Fark after Rober's SCOTUS decision on Obamacare.
 
2012-11-05 03:48:03 PM

WombatControl: Here's my prediction.

Romney 49.8, Obama 47.6
Romney 285, Obama 253

Romney takes McCain 08 states + NH, IN, NC, VA, OH, IA, and CO.

Electoral College map

 

♪♫ Don't stop, belieeeeevin...♫♪
 
2012-11-05 03:48:50 PM

ivan: coeyagi: WombatControl: Here's my prediction.

Romney 49.8, Obama 47.6
Romney 285, Obama 253

Romney takes McCain 08 states + NH, IN, NC, VA, OH, IA, and CO.

Electoral College map

Awesome. Screenshotted for tomorrow.

Your optimism is inspiring.

About it ending tomorrow, that is.


Well, I am only going to post it tomorrow. Butthurt-Americans can whine about ACORN, PECAN, CASHEW, WALNUT and ALMOND all they want after that.

And the liberal media of course.
 
2012-11-05 03:49:33 PM

mrshowrules: maniacbastard: I look forward to the teatards at fark like tenpoundsoffeces get all pissy and stampy when their guy loses.

Some of the usual suspects took a couple days off from Fark after Rober's SCOTUS decision on Obamacare.


Guessing they took their frustrations in Freeperland.
 
2012-11-05 03:50:18 PM

WombatControl: Here's my prediction.

Romney 49.8, Obama 47.6
Romney 285, Obama 253

Romney takes McCain 08 states + NH, IN, NC, VA, OH, IA, and CO.

Electoral College map


You just take the next few days easy and realize that it is a just an election and world moves on. The TV and Fark may not be your happy place for a few weeks.
 
2012-11-05 03:53:32 PM
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bmgA

Obama 290 49.8%
Romney 248 49.1%
 
2012-11-05 03:53:48 PM
I'll jump on the 303-235 Obama over Romney bandwagon.

50.5% Obama to 48.7% Romney
 
2012-11-05 03:54:41 PM
303 235 50.8 48.9

Throwing my hat into the one month of free TF pool. I've got Obama winning it 281-257
 
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