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(270 To Win)   Fark Electoral College Contest: post your best guesstimate of how the final electoral college map will look after Tuesday's election. Up for grabs: bragging rights for the next four years in the Politics tab   (270towin.com) divider line 525
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1461 clicks; posted to Politics » on 05 Nov 2012 at 1:39 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-05 02:37:52 PM

Jackson Herring: [i.imgur.com image 600x515]


Have you checked out his twitter feed? Trolling the right hard.
 
2012-11-05 02:37:53 PM
Oh, and the popular vote ends up:

President Obama: 50.2%
Romney: 48.6%
 
2012-11-05 02:37:59 PM

timujin: DamnYankees: Just FYI, for all you people not posting popular vote predictions, you are pretty much guaranteed not to win. There's almost certainly going to be a tie for the winning EV count. I don't know if anyone cares, just a heads up.

The headline only asked for the electoral college results, not the popular vote, so that's all I posted.


Ya I know - that annoyed me. I didn't submit this headline, I submitted another one that was made red.
 
2012-11-05 02:38:44 PM
Obama 313 52.16 %pv Romey 224 47.84%pv, 1 "faithless" Romeye elector casting a vote for Ron Pual
 
2012-11-05 02:39:10 PM

YouAreItNoTagBacks: Jackson Herring: [i.imgur.com image 600x515]

Have you checked out his twitter feed? Trolling the right hard.

Link got stupid
 
2012-11-05 02:39:25 PM
The only poll that Nate has that doesn't count Florida as a tie (or the two +1's that cancel each other out) is from Jacksonville. And was taken from the surrounding area. Don't count Fl out just yet.
 
2012-11-05 02:39:33 PM

Uberdeity: DamnYankees: Uberdeity: Obama 332 pop 49.8%
Romney 206 pop 49.9%
Third party pop .3%

There's no chance in hell Obama wins 332 EVs if he loses the popular vote, IMO.

That is why it is a bet. =) Also, I know that Northern Fla is in the Romney Camp, Southern Fla is in the Obama Camp... I live in Central Fla. We get to decide and I can tell you that for every Romney/Ryan anything I have seen, I am seeing 10-1 for Obama. totally anecdotal but hey .. it is something right?


Did you vote early? What were the lines like up there.

/In Palm Beach here
/2.5 hour wait...and that wasn't even the worst
 
2012-11-05 02:40:46 PM
I went on record, here and elsewhere, a long time ago:

Obama 332.
 
2012-11-05 02:40:51 PM
I think I'm still the only one riding my predition. Stay away from it heathens.
 
2012-11-05 02:41:56 PM
O: 278 49.1%
R: 260 48.4%
 
2012-11-05 02:42:00 PM

DamnYankees: Ya I know - that annoyed me. I didn't submit this headline, I submitted another one that was made red.


I bet it had a better headline, too.
 
2012-11-05 02:42:33 PM

CPennypacker: I think I'm still the only one riding my predition. Stay away from it heathens.


You are indeed the only person with 286 for Obama.
 
2012-11-05 02:42:50 PM

DamnYankees: timujin: DamnYankees: Just FYI, for all you people not posting popular vote predictions, you are pretty much guaranteed not to win. There's almost certainly going to be a tie for the winning EV count. I don't know if anyone cares, just a heads up.

The headline only asked for the electoral college results, not the popular vote, so that's all I posted.

Ya I know - that annoyed me. I didn't submit this headline, I submitted another one that was made red.


sphotos-d.ak.fbcdn.net

=)
 
2012-11-05 02:43:04 PM

phritz: O 314 - R 224
O takes loses New Hampshire and Florida but gets NC ... why not.
Popular vote: O 49.7 - R 48.8
Senate 54 D+I - 46 R


I'll say that it would be funny as hell if Obama won VA and NC...but if he were to win those two I think he'd also win FL.
 
2012-11-05 02:43:10 PM

ox45tallboy: DamnYankees: Ya I know - that annoyed me. I didn't submit this headline, I submitted another one that was made red.

I bet it had a better headline, too.


How'd you know?!
 
2012-11-05 02:43:50 PM

FitzShivering: I am basing this on the fact that I think Democrats will not turn out to vote near the prior election cycle's numbers


The early voting turn-out for Liberals has been phenomenal in battle-ground States.

Have a look at this GOP memo Link

It looks like Obama might even take Florida. However, even if it is just a close loss in Florida, Obama is going to run most of the battle-ground States.
 
2012-11-05 02:44:30 PM

DamnYankees: CPennypacker: I think I'm still the only one riding my predition. Stay away from it heathens.

You are indeed the only person with 286 for Obama.


Cmon New Hampshire! Break for RMONEY!
 
2012-11-05 02:44:52 PM
Obama - 303 ev, 49.6 pv
Romney - 235 ev, 48.6 pv
Other - 1.8 pv

So in a nutshell, Obama wins ev and gets a majority of the popular but still comes under 50% with the third party vote. I also expect the right to spend 4 years going but, but, but a majority voted against Obama.
 
2012-11-05 02:44:59 PM

Uberdeity: The only poll that Nate has that doesn't count Florida as a tie (or the two +1's that cancel each other out) is from Jacksonville. And was taken from the surrounding area. Don't count Fl out just yet.


If Obama wins FL, it's over at that point too.. I suspect if he wins VA it's over at that point too... but damn, if he got FL it'd be really a ass whipping...

/not optimistic though, the idiots in my state voted for Rick Scott...
 
2012-11-05 02:45:22 PM

DamnYankees: CPennypacker: I think I'm still the only one riding my predition. Stay away from it heathens.

You are indeed the only person with 286 for Obama.


I have 284 for Obama but for the life of me, I can't figure out the realistic combination of States that will produce that.
 
2012-11-05 02:47:00 PM

mrshowrules: DamnYankees: CPennypacker: I think I'm still the only one riding my predition. Stay away from it heathens.

You are indeed the only person with 286 for Obama.

I have 284 for Obama but for the life of me, I can't figure out the realistic combination of States that will produce that.


Really easy. Romney wins FL, NC, VA and IA (or NV, but IA seems more likely). Obama wins the rest. Pretty plausible.
 
2012-11-05 02:47:19 PM
269-269 - just for the lulz.

Link
 
2012-11-05 02:48:41 PM

mrshowrules: FitzShivering: I am basing this on the fact that I think Democrats will not turn out to vote near the prior election cycle's numbers

The early voting turn-out for Liberals has been phenomenal in battle-ground States.

Have a look at this GOP memo Link

It looks like Obama might even take Florida. However, even if it is just a close loss in Florida, Obama is going to run most of the battle-ground States.


Sure hope so; I'd love to wake up tomorrow AM, click on a morning show and see video of long lines at polling places around the battleground states.

That would make Romney wince.
 
2012-11-05 02:48:54 PM

mrshowrules: FitzShivering: I am basing this on the fact that I think Democrats will not turn out to vote near the prior election cycle's numbers

The early voting turn-out for Liberals has been phenomenal in battle-ground States.

Have a look at this GOP memo Link

It looks like Obama might even take Florida. However, even if it is just a close loss in Florida, Obama is going to run most of the battle-ground States.


I'm having a really hard time reading that image. Dunno if it's my screen. Got a better quality link anywhere?
 
2012-11-05 02:49:03 PM
Obama - 283
Romney - 255
 
2012-11-05 02:50:30 PM

JerseyTim: Whatever Nate Silver is saying.


What JerseyTim said.
 
2012-11-05 02:51:04 PM
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=blIO

I'm predicting 326 to 212 for Obama.
 
2012-11-05 02:54:25 PM
328 51.2
210 48.8
 
2012-11-05 02:54:39 PM
Dear God help us if this is the case....but I have a fear building in me that it will be....

i50.tinypic.com
 
2012-11-05 02:54:51 PM

abb3w: DamnYankees: No, that was his actual prediction.

Nate Silver noted that his model gave that prediction by Kramer an 0.004% chance of being correct.


If Obama wins Texas, Arizona, Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, and Ohio, he has 417. One wonders which of the remaining states Mr. Kramer believes will make up the remaining 23 votes.
 
2012-11-05 02:56:41 PM
On my phone. Bookmarking for later, will post my winning entry tonight
 
2012-11-05 02:57:12 PM

organizmx: JerseyTim: Whatever Nate Silver is saying.

What JerseyTim said.


On the electoral vote, yes. I think third parties are going to get about 2% of the popular vote given how annoyed the general public is with both parties.
 
2012-11-05 02:58:37 PM

qorkfiend: abb3w: DamnYankees: No, that was his actual prediction.

Nate Silver noted that his model gave that prediction by Kramer an 0.004% chance of being correct.

If Obama wins Texas, Arizona, Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, and Ohio, he has 417. One wonders which of the remaining states Mr. Kramer believes will make up the remaining 23 votes.


Here's the most concievable map I could come up with"

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=blMU

In addition to all the battlegrounds, Obama takes AZ, AK, WY, MT, ND, SD, NE, MO, AR, LA, TN and GA.
 
2012-11-05 02:59:11 PM
Obama: 347, 52.1%
Romney: 191, 46.5%
Third Party: 0, 1.4%
 
2012-11-05 03:00:51 PM
here is mine:

i.imgur.com
 
2012-11-05 03:01:38 PM

KellyX: Uberdeity: The only poll that Nate has that doesn't count Florida as a tie (or the two +1's that cancel each other out) is from Jacksonville. And was taken from the surrounding area. Don't count Fl out just yet.

If Obama wins FL, it's over at that point too.. I suspect if he wins VA it's over at that point too... but damn, if he got FL it'd be really a ass whipping...

/not optimistic though, the idiots in my state voted for Rick Scott...


It's over if Obama wins Ohio or Florida or Virginia.

Romney needs to win Ohio and Florida and Virginia and either New Hampshire or Colorado.
 
2012-11-05 03:01:54 PM

DamnYankees: timujin: DamnYankees: Just FYI, for all you people not posting popular vote predictions, you are pretty much guaranteed not to win. There's almost certainly going to be a tie for the winning EV count. I don't know if anyone cares, just a heads up.

The headline only asked for the electoral college results, not the popular vote, so that's all I posted.

Ya I know - that annoyed me. I didn't submit this headline, I submitted another one that was made red.


Yeah, saw that but didn't check the link. It also goes to the same site, though, but I don't see a way to generate an estimate of the popular vote. So it that just a guess? I simply went with the states and went pretty widely Democratic at that, since everyone else is going closer to 50/50. Like someone wrote above, you can't win if you're guessing the same as everyone else.
 
2012-11-05 03:02:43 PM
Oh and pop vote: O: 50.5 R: 48.2
 
2012-11-05 03:02:44 PM

timujin: So it that just a guess?


Yeah, just a guess for tie-breaking sake.
 
2012-11-05 03:03:05 PM
farm9.staticflickr.com
 
2012-11-05 03:03:07 PM
Obama: 303, 51%
Rmoney: 235, 48%
1% for potato
 
2012-11-05 03:03:08 PM

qorkfiend: abb3w: DamnYankees: No, that was his actual prediction.

Nate Silver noted that his model gave that prediction by Kramer an 0.004% chance of being correct.

If Obama wins Texas, Arizona, Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, and Ohio, he has 417. One wonders which of the remaining states Mr. Kramer believes will make up the remaining 23 votes.


Easy

i.imgur.com
 
2012-11-05 03:04:09 PM
O: 303 w/ 49.7%
R: 235 w/ 49.7%

Yea, tied popular vote. Why the hell not?
 
2012-11-05 03:05:12 PM
 
2012-11-05 03:06:08 PM
272 obama
266 romney

florida and ohio go repub.
 
2012-11-05 03:06:12 PM
i396.photobucket.com

Count me in as another Nate Silver believer. Though I do think with the way momentum is going, Obama can still take Florida, though I'm not banking on it.
 
2012-11-05 03:06:49 PM

Carn: Obama: 303, 51%
Rmoney: 235, 48%
1% for potato


I kind of have a weird feeling if the right feels like Romney doesn't have much of a chance that Tea Party people might vote potato instead.
 
2012-11-05 03:07:09 PM
Sorry Also meant to say 277-261
 
2012-11-05 03:07:15 PM
My corollary predictions:

+ Nate Silver and the other math-heads are going be much less accurate this year. The current talk that's trying to discredit Silver and the like will get much stronger, and eventually be shared by both Red and Blue pundits. It'll work, but only partially.

+ There will be much talk, some by very respected voices, about how the polls didn't fully factor in changes in the electoral environment - the money, the voter suppression efforts, the lack of landlines, voters being purposely dishonest to "help" their "hometeam", etc. after the elections. Nate Silver takes the existing data and dumps it into a refined model that is extremely accurate in hindsight. He nails it in 2016.

+ The exit polls in certain parts of the country will be improbably out of whack. So much so that, again, respected voices will at least strongly infer fraud, if not call it out directly. They'll be shouted down, even by people sharing their ideology, as conspiracy theorists.

+ Obama wins anyway, but so narrowly that he's still considered to be an illegitimate President. Four more years of stalemate. Republican wins the WH in 2016.

//I really hope that I'm wrong across the boards here
 
2012-11-05 03:07:22 PM
ONGOING TALLY

Predictions: 131
Predictions of Obama Win: 90%

Median Obama EV: 303
Median Romney EV: 235
Mode Obama EV: 303
Mode Romney EV: 235
Mode as Percent of Total: 21%

Median Obama PV: 50.2
Median Romney PV: 48.6

Max Obama EV Prediction: 379
Max Obama PV Prediction: 52.5

Min Obama EV Prediction: 229
Min Obama PV Prediction: 47

Max Obama PV Spread: 7.8
Max Romney PV Spread: 3
 
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