If you can read this, either the style sheet didn't load or you have an older browser that doesn't support style sheets. Try clearing your browser cache and refreshing the page.

(270 To Win)   Fark Electoral College Contest: post your best guesstimate of how the final electoral college map will look after Tuesday's election. Up for grabs: bragging rights for the next four years in the Politics tab   (270towin.com) divider line 524
    More: Spiffy, political sciences, u.s president  
•       •       •

1461 clicks; posted to Politics » on 05 Nov 2012 at 1:39 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



524 Comments   (+0 »)
   
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest

Archived thread

First | « | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | » | Last | Show all
 
2012-11-05 02:18:42 PM
i567.photobucket.com

you libtards are going to be so pissed off.
 
2012-11-05 02:19:15 PM

Lord Dimwit: Obama 275, Romney 263. You heard it here first, folks.


You are indeed the first person (out of 83) to make this particular EV prediction.
 
2012-11-05 02:19:23 PM
farm8.staticflickr.com

Obama just over 50% popular vote (under 51%)
 
2012-11-05 02:20:03 PM
Nobody's going along with Jim Cramer's 440?
 
2012-11-05 02:20:22 PM
Obama: 300, 50.1% PV
Romney: 238, 49.2% PV
 
2012-11-05 02:20:40 PM
Obama 332, Romney 206 via Huffington Post's make-your-own-map
 
2012-11-05 02:21:00 PM
Obama 531
Romney 7

And Texas overslept and forgot to vote.

\Nailed it.
 
2012-11-05 02:21:09 PM

propasaurus: Nobody's going along with Jim Cramer's 440?


Was that a typo?
 
2012-11-05 02:21:34 PM

The Evil That Lies In The Hearts Of Men: propasaurus: Nobody's going along with Jim Cramer's 440?

Was that a typo?


No, that was his actual prediction.
 
2012-11-05 02:22:11 PM

ThatBozGuy: My August prediction still stands.

Obama wins Electoral and Popular vote.
Electoral final Obama 303 Romney 235
Popular vote Obama 51.8%


you and I seem to be on the high side of the obama PV predictions (I'm at 51.1) but you still only think 303 ev? with a 2+pv advantage, you still don't see NC ending in blue column?

Baseball has too many teams for me to keep up with, but a good election feeds my 'inner stats junkie' for a good long time.
 
2012-11-05 02:22:24 PM

mrshowrules: Gonz: I'm going to take a long shot, for the sake of gambling.
Obama. 342, 49.7
Romney 196, 48.4

In this type of pool, you have a better chance of winning with an outlier.


Exactly. My other mental option was a 3rd Party candidate swinging an EV somehow. I don't think it's likely, but it gets me away from the O-303 logjam.
 
2012-11-05 02:23:13 PM

GardenWeasel: SacriliciousBeerSwiller: [imageshack.us image 640x442]

Electoral: Obama 369, Mitsy 169
Popular: Aw hell, let's say Obama 52.5%, Mitsy 46%, Other 1.5%

Yeah, mofos, I'm calling Arizona and NC for Obama. A lot of people really do not like Mittens...they're just not screeching psychos about it the way the Obama haters are.

I'll take yours and add anti-rape pushes in IN/MO. Even the blue-hairs here in Indiana are pissed.

[i.imgur.com image 625x491]


Maybe it might have an effect in Indiana but not here in MO.

I have a better shot at being "Sexiest Man in the Universe" than Obama winning MO. Don't forget, he didn't even win this state in 2008.

BTW my prediction:

I think Obama will get all the swing states except VA, NC and FL

Obama: 290
Romney: 248
 
2012-11-05 02:24:20 PM
Here's mine:

O - 303
R - 235

O - 50.2%
R - 48.6%
 
2012-11-05 02:24:23 PM
Just FYI, for all you people not posting popular vote predictions, you are pretty much guaranteed not to win. There's almost certainly going to be a tie for the winning EV count. I don't know if anyone cares, just a heads up.
 
2012-11-05 02:25:03 PM
Obama 332 pop 49.8%
Romney 206 pop 49.9%
Third party pop .3%
 
2012-11-05 02:25:36 PM

Uberdeity: Obama 332 pop 49.8%
Romney 206 pop 49.9%
Third party pop .3%


There's no chance in hell Obama wins 332 EVs if he loses the popular vote, IMO.
 
2012-11-05 02:26:10 PM

DamnYankees: Just FYI, for all you people not posting popular vote predictions, you are pretty much guaranteed not to win. There's almost certainly going to be a tie for the winning EV count. I don't know if anyone cares, just a heads up.


Meh, popular vote doesn't matter...

/looking forward to seeing GOP whine about it if they get the popular vote and lose the EC
 
2012-11-05 02:26:12 PM
lh4.googleusercontent.com
 
2012-11-05 02:26:43 PM

Uberdeity: Obama 332 pop 49.8%
Romney 206 pop 49.9%
Third party pop .3%


That would be...remarkable.
 
2012-11-05 02:27:31 PM

thenewmissus: Romney
Alabama
Alaska
.
.
.
Washington
West Virginia
Wyoming


You're going to be sooo pissed off
 
2012-11-05 02:27:32 PM
Add me to the long list of 303-235 predictors. I must be number eleventy-jillion on the list with that total

If I have to pull numbers out of my ass for popular vote totals, I'll go 50.4% Obama - 49.6% Romney, but there isn't much point to that exercise, either. Admit it, we're all just looking at Nate's PV prediction and adjusting by a few tenths, aren't we??
 
2012-11-05 02:27:35 PM
Obama 294
Romney 244
 
2012-11-05 02:27:55 PM
Obama 0 electoral 0% popular
Romney 538,000 electoral $10,000 popular
 
2012-11-05 02:28:15 PM

lennavan: 318 Obama
220 Romney

Link

I also predict Romney wins the popular vote and neither candidate breaks 50%:

Romney - 49.2%
Obama - 48.7%

Romney wins the popular vote due to Sandy hitting more (D) leaning states (and because the lulz would be truly epic, call it payback for 2000).


Was thinking about this myself and thus any mention of the RWers going nuts that Romney should be President by way of the popular vote and there should merit a two-word response:

Al. Gore.
 
2012-11-05 02:28:20 PM

Mrtraveler01: GardenWeasel: SacriliciousBeerSwiller: [imageshack.us image 640x442]

Electoral: Obama 369, Mitsy 169
Popular: Aw hell, let's say Obama 52.5%, Mitsy 46%, Other 1.5%

Yeah, mofos, I'm calling Arizona and NC for Obama. A lot of people really do not like Mittens...they're just not screeching psychos about it the way the Obama haters are.

I'll take yours and add anti-rape pushes in IN/MO. Even the blue-hairs here in Indiana are pissed.

[i.imgur.com image 625x491]

Maybe it might have an effect in Indiana but not here in MO.

I have a better shot at being "Sexiest Man in the Universe" than Obama winning MO. Don't forget, he didn't even win this state in 2008.

BTW my prediction:

I think Obama will get all the swing states except VA, NC and FL

Obama: 290
Romney: 248


Popular vote:

Obama: 50.5%
Romney: 49.5%

Although part of me would like to see Obama lose the popular vote and win the electoral vote just to troll the right a la 2000.
 
2012-11-05 02:28:24 PM

DamnYankees: Just FYI, for all you people not posting popular vote predictions, you are pretty much guaranteed not to win. There's almost certainly going to be a tie for the winning EV count. I don't know if anyone cares, just a heads up.


good point

obama 50.2%
romney 49.5%
 
2012-11-05 02:28:32 PM
297 - Obama
241 - Romney
 
2012-11-05 02:28:54 PM
ONGOING TALLY

Predictions: 101
Predictions of Obama Win: 90%

Median Obama EV: 300
Median Romney EV: 238
Mode Obama EV: 303
Mode Romney EV: 235
Mode as Percent of Total: 19%

Median Obama PV: 50.2
Median Romney PV: 48.6

Max Obama EV Prediction: 379
Max Obama PV Prediction: 52.5

Min Obama EV Prediction: 229
Min Obama PV Prediction: 47

Max Obama PV Spread: 6.5
Max Romney PV Spread: 3
 
2012-11-05 02:28:59 PM
Obama: 236

Romney: 302
 
2012-11-05 02:29:20 PM
my overly optimistic is:
O: 313
R: 225

my realistic is:
O: 286
R: 252

i'm not going to bother with the popular vote.
 
2012-11-05 02:29:58 PM

DamnYankees: The Evil That Lies In The Hearts Of Men: propasaurus: Nobody's going along with Jim Cramer's 440?

Was that a typo?

No, that was his actual prediction.


So I guess we know two things he's bad at predicting.
 
2012-11-05 02:31:02 PM
i.imgur.com
 
2012-11-05 02:31:23 PM

DamnYankees: No, that was his actual prediction.


Nate Silver noted that his model gave that prediction by Kramer an 0.004% chance of being correct.
 
2012-11-05 02:32:03 PM
Obama 303
Romney 235
 
2012-11-05 02:32:08 PM

DamnYankees: RyogaM: Is anyone going to put all these predictions all in one post for easy viewing and posting in the election night threads? Please? Anyone?

I will.


Awesome.
 
2012-11-05 02:32:19 PM

tallguywithglasseson: DamnYankees: The Evil That Lies In The Hearts Of Men: propasaurus: Nobody's going along with Jim Cramer's 440?

Was that a typo?

No, that was his actual prediction.

So I guess we know two things he's bad at predicting.


Make it 3:

Cramer married Karen Backfisch-Olufsen, a trader, in 1988, and divorced in 2009
 
2012-11-05 02:32:36 PM
Roseanne Barr;
538.

/Suck it Zealots.
 
2012-11-05 02:32:39 PM
Obama: 347, 51.5 PV
Romney 191, 47.8 PV
 
DGS [TotalFark]
2012-11-05 02:32:58 PM

Seacop: Romney's got this.

Three statisticals..

1. 30% of Hillary supporters for Romney
2. 1 in 7 undecided
3. Silent Majority

Romney wins. You guys are gonna be sooo pissed off.


Ok, that's a good one. Days gone by.
 
2012-11-05 02:33:11 PM

DamnYankees: I guess I might as well port over all the information:

I'll be keeping track of all this in an excel file and once everything is called I'll give the winner a month of TF for free.


I was in on this when it was first proposed, but somehow missed the real thread. Now I can't find the thread where you initially brought it up.

Anyway, mine was for Nate Silver's 330 prediction minus Ohio's 18 (due to shenanigans there), so Obama 312, Romney 226.

We didn't do popular vote in that thread, but I'm thinking Obama 49.9, Romney 49.6.

And the Ohio shenanigans will be deemed moot and not investigated.
 
2012-11-05 02:33:16 PM
303 Obama/Biden
235 Romney/Ryan
 
2012-11-05 02:33:33 PM

DamnYankees: Uberdeity: Obama 332 pop 49.8%
Romney 206 pop 49.9%
Third party pop .3%

There's no chance in hell Obama wins 332 EVs if he loses the popular vote, IMO.


That is why it is a bet. =) Also, I know that Northern Fla is in the Romney Camp, Southern Fla is in the Obama Camp... I live in Central Fla. We get to decide and I can tell you that for every Romney/Ryan anything I have seen, I am seeing 10-1 for Obama. totally anecdotal but hey .. it is something right?
 
2012-11-05 02:33:36 PM
i159.photobucket.com

Romney may well win VA, but I'm, pretty comfortable with the rest.

Even if he wins VA, it's time for the fat lady to warm up...

i159.photobucket.com
 
2012-11-05 02:34:04 PM

Jackson Herring: [i.imgur.com image 600x515]


Came here for this.
 
2012-11-05 02:34:11 PM
Obama: 281
Romney: 235

Popular vote: 52% to 44.2%
 
2012-11-05 02:34:52 PM
My 303 Obama electoral win prediction has a 1 state give or take scenario, that would not change the outcome of the winner,the two states in that math are:

Virginia is the weakest that I give to Obama at 69% chance of winning. That would leave Obama with a 290 win if he lose the state.

Florida is the weakest state I give to Romney at 55% (this state is statistically a too close to call tossup, but I lean it Romney) That would give Obama a 332 Electoral win if he wins the state.

My final state call for President Obama is 303:
WA,OR,CA,HI,NV,CO,NM,CO,MN,IA,WI,IL,OH,PA,NY,VA,ME,VT,NH,MA,CT,RI,NJ, D E,MD,DC

My final state call for Candidate Romney is 235:
AK,AZ,UT,ID,MT,WY,ND,SD,NE,KS,OK,TX,LA,AR,MO,IN,KY,TN,MS,AL,WV,NC,SC, G A,FL

One slight anomaly is Nebraska district two, which I call for Romney but is also a single Electoral vote change in tossup territory for Obama. But I put the full contingent of NE in Romney's column.
 
2012-11-05 02:36:04 PM
Obama: 294 50.8%
Romney: 244 47.6%
 
2012-11-05 02:36:51 PM
President Obama: 332
Romney: 206
 
2012-11-05 02:37:16 PM

DamnYankees: Just FYI, for all you people not posting popular vote predictions, you are pretty much guaranteed not to win. There's almost certainly going to be a tie for the winning EV count. I don't know if anyone cares, just a heads up.


The headline only asked for the electoral college results, not the popular vote, so that's all I posted.
 
2012-11-05 02:37:51 PM
O 314 - R 224
O takes loses New Hampshire and Florida but gets NC ... why not.
Popular vote: O 49.7 - R 48.8
Senate 54 D+I - 46 R
 
Displayed 50 of 524 comments

First | « | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | » | Last | Show all

View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest


This thread is archived, and closed to new comments.

Continue Farking
Submit a Link »






Report