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(270 To Win)   Fark Electoral College Contest: post your best guesstimate of how the final electoral college map will look after Tuesday's election. Up for grabs: bragging rights for the next four years in the Politics tab   (270towin.com ) divider line
    More: Spiffy, political sciences, u.s president  
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1471 clicks; posted to Politics » on 05 Nov 2012 at 1:39 PM (3 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-05 01:55:33 PM  

RyogaM: Is anyone going to put all these predictions all in one post for easy viewing and posting in the election night threads? Please? Anyone?


I will.
 
2012-11-05 01:56:05 PM  
i.imgur.com

Obama: 278
Romney: 260

Popular vote: O: 49.7 R: 48.9

//I think that Obama will win despite widespread voter suppression and other malarkey
 
2012-11-05 01:56:08 PM  

mrshowrules: DamnYankees: ONGOING TALLY

When are you closing the wicket?


When I get tired of putting this shiat into excel.
 
2012-11-05 01:56:20 PM  
329Obama
Florida is close and there are already GOP shenanigans, so it could end up 300 Obama
 
2012-11-05 01:56:37 PM  
Obama 277 (50.3), Romney 261 (48.9) (rest of pop to 3rd parties)
Map
 
2012-11-05 01:56:58 PM  
My guess is going to be based solely on the this question: Looking at the numbers from Princeton and FiveThirtyEight, do I flip Florida Romney, or do I flip Florida Obama? The former will give us a 303 O - R 235 spit, and the latter 332 O - R 206. And man, let me tell you, we are talking coin toss here, the probabilities are with in 5% over 538. I don't buy flipping NE D2, Looking at 538, O has a better chance of flipping NC...

You know, I'm going to go for it: 332 O - R 206, based on the point that I'm pretty sure Obama's ground game is stronger, and Florida probably wants a president who can deal with hurricanes.

332 O - R 206
(chosen over 303 O - R 235)
 
2012-11-05 01:57:19 PM  

mrshowrules: SlothB77: SlothB77 Prediction:

R 48.8% 273
O 48.2% 265

Wise going with 273 because 271 would have looked desperate. Just like when you are 18 in a bar and the ask your age, always say 23 not 21 because that looks suspicious.


With how the electoral votes are spread across potential swing states, to use a poker term, there are a lot of outs to get to exactly 273 for Romney. A lot of different possible combinations get the same 273/265 totals.
 
2012-11-05 01:57:19 PM  
Obama: 290
Romney: 248
 
2012-11-05 01:58:18 PM  
will be interesting to see the discussion evolve now that Gallup is back 'in line' with everyone else
 
2012-11-05 01:58:28 PM  
My prediction...


www.cubicdissection.com
 
2012-11-05 01:58:56 PM  
Nate Silver's prediction (from 538):
Obama 307 (50.6)
Romney 231 (48.5)

Dean Chambers' prediction (from unskewedpolls)
Obama 227 (45.8)
Romney 311 (50.0)

Sam Wang's histogram (from Princeton Election Consortium):
election.princeton.edu
 
2012-11-05 01:59:20 PM  
I'm in.

Obama 304 / 50.7%
Romney 234 / 48.2%

I figure Obama takes CO, OH, VA, NH, and NE-2. Romney takes FL and NC.
 
2012-11-05 01:59:34 PM  

Man On A Mission: My predictions: Obama 303 / Romney 235
 
Of the "battleground" states, I predict Obama will win Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada while Romney will take Florida and North Carolina.
 
I'm not sold on the Virginia and Colorado picks, but I'm going with my gut on this one.


As a Colorado resident, I can agree with your colorado pick. We're very socially liberal and fiscally conservative (tight fisted farks!), and Romney's plans don't really go with either of these. We may be a bit "light blue," but we'll go for Obama in the end.
 
2012-11-05 01:59:39 PM  
Link

Popular vote:

Obama: 50.2%
Romney: 48.4%
Johnson: 1.4%
 
2012-11-05 01:59:54 PM  
Can't seem to post mine. My pic posting fu is weak.

Prediction:Obangma 299.
Mittbot:239.
 
2012-11-05 02:00:28 PM  
EV
Obama: 307
Romney: 231

Popular
Obama: 48.5
Romney: 47.6%
Other: 3.9%
 
2012-11-05 02:00:40 PM  
I'd like to state ahead of time I do not want this to be the result, but here's where I think we'll go:

Romney: 275
Obama: 263

Romney: 49.2%
Obama: 48.9%

I am basing this on the fact that I think Democrats will not turn out to vote near the prior election cycle's numbers (I've already started hearing the "Obama will win anyway" from younger voters), and that there will be a certain amount of election fraud where it matters.

That said, in the choice between Obama and Romney, I will be happy if I am wrong.

I think if the media hadn't turned the whole thing into a horse race Obama would have won in a landslide. Basically just throwing a gut guess out there for the hell of it

/not voting for O or R, and no, my vote doesn't matter where I live
 
2012-11-05 02:01:57 PM  
Obama-EC Obama-pct Romney-EC Romney-pct
291 50.1 247 47.9
 
2012-11-05 02:01:58 PM  

saintstryfe: [i.imgur.com image 785x583]

yes I know this is different then my earlier prediction - but that was just so I had a unique spot on the official prediction list.

This is the map I think is most likely.


I'm with you. Linky: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=blnH

Obummer: 290
Rmoney: 248

/go Obama
 
2012-11-05 02:03:58 PM  
Please please please let the usual suspects drop trowel in here with their predictions. You know who you are. Please report to thread 7418082.
 
2012-11-05 02:04:02 PM  
shiat, did the math wrong.

EV
Obama: 303
Romney: 235

Popular
Obama: 48.5
Romney: 47.6%
Other: 3.9%
 
2012-11-05 02:06:02 PM  
D: 332
R: 206

Link

Obama gets 50.6 % of the popular vote.

CNN declares that Romney performed strongly. Wolf Blitzer calls it a tie.
 
2012-11-05 02:06:20 PM  
Well hard to win anything if you bet the same as everyone else. So, for the month of Total Fark:

Romney 275 49.1%
Obama 263 47.9%

Romney wins Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado. Recounts in all three states after exit polls show Obama 2-3 points ahead. Winner not declared for at least 48 hours. Our long national nightmare gets longer. But hey I'll get a month of Total Fark. Totally worth it.
 
2012-11-05 02:06:28 PM  
O-303 R-235
O-50.6 R-48.4

That's if there are not overwhelming shenanigans in Ohio.
 
2012-11-05 02:06:39 PM  
Obama 303 50.5%
Romney 235 49.1%
 
2012-11-05 02:07:24 PM  
O: 258
R: 281

PV O:47 R:50 I:3
 
2012-11-05 02:07:53 PM  

3_Butt_Cheeks: O: 258
R: 281

PV O:47 R:50 I:3


That doesn't ad up to 538.
 
2012-11-05 02:08:33 PM  
299 to 239... a solid 60-point margin.

Pop. vote... 49.0 to 48.1.
 
2012-11-05 02:09:02 PM  
O: 280
R: 258

Calling the Maine split.
 
2012-11-05 02:09:48 PM  
My humble predictions. I'm no Nate Silver, but I think I will get pretty doggone close.

Obama
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Iowa
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New York
Ohio
Rhode Island
Vermont
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Oregon

Romney
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
Florida
Georgia
Indiana
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
North Carolina
North Dakota
Oklahoma
Tennessee
South Carolina
South Dakota
Texas
Utah
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wyoming
 
2012-11-05 02:10:08 PM  

thenewmissus: My humble predictions. I'm no Nate Silver, but I think I will get pretty doggone close.


I'm not doing the math on that.
 
2012-11-05 02:10:51 PM  

DamnYankees: 3_Butt_Cheeks: O: 258
R: 281

PV O:47 R:50 I:3

That doesn't ad up to 538.


O 257
R 281
 
2012-11-05 02:11:36 PM  

Cyberluddite: Just to be different from everyone else, I'm going to say that Mittens manages to pull off a victory in Colorado, but Obama manages to win Florida. So I'm going to say the final results look like this:

[www.majhost.com image 797x614]

Electoral vote: Obama 323, Mittens 215
Popular vote: Obama 50.5, Mittens 48.7

I think Obama's share of the the popular vote will be artificially decreased a bit because some people in the Northeast won't bother to vote because of all of the Sandy problems, and that area is mostly Obama territory. It won't affect the electoral vote because Obama and Romney voters in the area would be affected the same, but it will decrease those states' shares of the total popular votes cast nationwide.


That's what I have too, at least for the EV. I'm guessing the PV will be pretty similar to what you have there too. Florida has been very close, but a lot of Farkers are giving to to Rmoney. I think that Obama's leadership during Sandy will make him look good to the people in FL who deal with hurricanes a lot, and that might put him over the top there. I'm also guessing that Gary Johnson steals the pothead vote in Colorado and hands it to Romney there, but both of those states will be close.

So:
Obama 323
Mittens 215
 
2012-11-05 02:12:24 PM  
Obama 303, 50.2 percent
Romney 235, 48.6 percent
 
2012-11-05 02:13:46 PM  
I would say 290 - 248, Obama's favor.

I think Colorado is gonna be an upset Romney Win. Even though all the polls show Obama in the lead, the early vote is in and apparently the Repubs are crushing it there, Which disheartens me. Romney will still lose.
 
2012-11-05 02:14:12 PM  

SacriliciousBeerSwiller: [imageshack.us image 640x442]

Electoral: Obama 369, Mitsy 169
Popular: Aw hell, let's say Obama 52.5%, Mitsy 46%, Other 1.5%

Yeah, mofos, I'm calling Arizona and NC for Obama. A lot of people really do not like Mittens...they're just not screeching psychos about it the way the Obama haters are.


I'll take yours and add anti-rape pushes in IN/MO. Even the blue-hairs here in Indiana are pissed.

i.imgur.com
 
2012-11-05 02:14:15 PM  

DrD'isInfotainment: 329Obama
Florida is close and there are already GOP shenanigans, so it could end up 300 Obama


Whoops: I forgot to click on DC (do they really have 3 EVs?)
Anyway:I revise my prediction to 332 unless RickScott Inc prevails with his shenanigans, in which case it's 303
 
2012-11-05 02:14:17 PM  
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bltz

290/248 For Obama.
 
2012-11-05 02:14:37 PM  
My August prediction still stands.

Obama wins Electoral and Popular vote.
Electoral final Obama 303 Romney 235
Popular vote Obama 51.8%
 
2012-11-05 02:15:46 PM  
i.imgur.com

just for the epicness

/really thinks Obama gets all the swingers but Florida
 
2012-11-05 02:16:00 PM  
Obama: 332
Romney: 206

Obama: 50.3
Romney: 48.7

/Obama wins Florida
 
2012-11-05 02:16:18 PM  

GardenWeasel: SacriliciousBeerSwiller: [imageshack.us image 640x442]

Electoral: Obama 369, Mitsy 169
Popular: Aw hell, let's say Obama 52.5%, Mitsy 46%, Other 1.5%

Yeah, mofos, I'm calling Arizona and NC for Obama. A lot of people really do not like Mittens...they're just not screeching psychos about it the way the Obama haters are.

I'll take yours and add anti-rape pushes in IN/MO. Even the blue-hairs here in Indiana are pissed.

[i.imgur.com image 625x491]


I wish I could agree about AZ, but there are too many Mormons here who will vote for Romney just because of his religion. And if they don't, they'll vote for RON PAUL. But not enough to swing an Obama win in AZ.
 
2012-11-05 02:16:41 PM  
Obama: 303 Electoral Votes
Romney: 235 Electoral Votes

Popular Vote:
Obama: 50.4%
Romney: 48.6%
 
2012-11-05 02:17:01 PM  
Obama: EV: 332 PV: 51.3%

Romney: EV: 206 PV: 47.6%

This assumes a model with all battleground states going to Obama except North Carolina.
 
2012-11-05 02:17:54 PM  
Obama: 319
Romney: 219

YOU'RE WELCOME
 
2012-11-05 02:17:59 PM  
Obama 275, Romney 263. You heard it here first, folks.
 
2012-11-05 02:18:04 PM  
Oh, and map in case it wasn't obvious.
 
2012-11-05 02:18:10 PM  
i.imgur.com
 
2012-11-05 02:18:14 PM  
180 Johnson
180 Stein
178 RON PAUL

With RON PAUL taking a plurality with write in votes.
 
2012-11-05 02:18:38 PM  

President Raygun: I would say 290 - 248, Obama's favor.

I think Colorado is gonna be an upset Romney Win. Even though all the polls show Obama in the lead, the early vote is in and apparently the Repubs are crushing it there, Which disheartens me. Romney will still lose.


For what it is worth I am in an American Gov class and this morning the teacher, who is very involved in the campaign, told us that most Colorado counties are enormously behind in counting the early votes. The campaign workers he has been working with have been on the phones constantly and for the last week they have heard a ton of "I already voted" which, I guess, should have been reported if they were registered and taken off their lists. So I wouldn't take much stock in any finding about the early votes in CO at this point.
 
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