Do you have adblock enabled?
If you can read this, either the style sheet didn't load or you have an older browser that doesn't support style sheets. Try clearing your browser cache and refreshing the page.

(270 To Win)   Fark Electoral College Contest: post your best guesstimate of how the final electoral college map will look after Tuesday's election. Up for grabs: bragging rights for the next four years in the Politics tab   (270towin.com) divider line 524
    More: Spiffy, political sciences, u.s president  
•       •       •

1464 clicks; posted to Politics » on 05 Nov 2012 at 1:39 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



524 Comments   (+0 »)
   
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest

Archived thread

First | « | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | » | Last | Show all
 
2012-11-05 01:32:54 PM  

Majick Thise: [www.macmeisters.com image 800x552]


Agreed.

O - 304
R - 234
 
2012-11-05 01:36:10 PM  

SlothB77: SlothB77 Prediction:

R 48.8% 273
O 48.2% 265


Wise going with 273 because 271 would have looked desperate. Just like when you are 18 in a bar and the ask your age, always say 23 not 21 because that looks suspicious.
 
2012-11-05 01:40:40 PM  

DamnYankees: DamnYankees 303 235 50.8 48.9


I see you've talked yourself off the edge that you seemed ready to jump off of post-Denver. Good to see.
 
2012-11-05 01:41:26 PM  
FWIW Rush Limbaugh's show sounds like a funeral today.
 
2012-11-05 01:41:32 PM  

bartink: DamnYankees: DamnYankees 303 235 50.8 48.9

I see you've talked yourself off the edge that you seemed ready to jump off of post-Denver. Good to see.


Don't confuse my intellectual confidence of the probably of an Obama win with the emotional terror that comes from thinking he might lose. I have both in ample amounts.
 
2012-11-05 01:42:54 PM  
303 - 235 for Obama, with 51.5 - 46.5 popular vote
 
2012-11-05 01:43:08 PM  
286 O - 252 R 50.4/48.2
 
2012-11-05 01:43:29 PM  

bartink: DamnYankees: DamnYankees 303 235 50.8 48.9

I see you've talked yourself off the edge that you seemed ready to jump off of post-Denver. Good to see.


I farkied him as "DOOOMYankees" after a few days of it.
 
2012-11-05 01:43:52 PM  
Romney: 336
Obama: 197
 
2012-11-05 01:44:37 PM  

badhatharry: Romney: 336
Obama: 197


That doesn't add up to 538.
 
2012-11-05 01:44:49 PM  
I had Obama taking all but NC and FL making it 303-235 a few weeks ago, even when VA didn't look good.

I feel more comfortable with that pick, since that's what Sam Wang thinks the election will go, as of an hour ago.
 
2012-11-05 01:45:14 PM  
Obama-294
Rmoney-244
 
2012-11-05 01:46:05 PM  
Romney wins by 0.8 National and Electoral college by 8 points
 
2012-11-05 01:46:07 PM  
i.qkme.me
 
2012-11-05 01:46:14 PM  
I'm really torn on Colorado, but I"m giving Obama everything else except CO, NC and FL

Obama 294
Romney 244
 
2012-11-05 01:46:26 PM  
Just to be different from everyone else, I'm going to say that Mittens manages to pull off a victory in Colorado, but Obama manages to win Florida. So I'm going to say the final results look like this:

www.majhost.com

Electoral vote: Obama 323, Mittens 215
Popular vote: Obama 50.5, Mittens 48.7

I think Obama's share of the the popular vote will be artificially decreased a bit because some people in the Northeast won't bother to vote because of all of the Sandy problems, and that area is mostly Obama territory. It won't affect the electoral vote because Obama and Romney voters in the area would be affected the same, but it will decrease those states' shares of the total popular votes cast nationwide.
 
2012-11-05 01:46:52 PM  

JerseyTim: Whatever Nate Silver is saying.


THIS
 
2012-11-05 01:46:55 PM  
Electoral: Obama 294, Romney 244

Popular: Obama 50.2 percent, Romney 48.9percent.
 
2012-11-05 01:47:02 PM  
Obama: 297 - 50.4%
Romney: 241 - 48.7%
 
2012-11-05 01:47:03 PM  
Obama 303
Romney 235

Obama 49.5%
Romney 49.5%
Third Parties 1%

Popular vote statistical tie for the lulz
 
2012-11-05 01:47:19 PM  
Link

309-229
 
2012-11-05 01:47:19 PM  

DamnYankees: badhatharry: Romney: 341
Obama: 197

That doesn't add up to 538.


Oops.
 
2012-11-05 01:47:42 PM  
Curses, someone else has my number taken already, but my popular will be different:

Obama: 290
Romney: 248

Popular vote:
Obama: 49.7
Romney: 49.9
 
2012-11-05 01:48:23 PM  
The morning of Nov 7

Obama 282 49.5
Romney 256 50.4

After a month of court challenges

Romney 274
Obama 268
 
2012-11-05 01:48:40 PM  
Romney's got this.

Three statisticals..

1. 30% of Hillary supporters for Romney
2. 1 in 7 undecided
3. Silent Majority

Romney wins. You guys are gonna be sooo pissed off.
 
2012-11-05 01:49:01 PM  
318 Obama
220 Romney

Link

I also predict Romney wins the popular vote and neither candidate breaks 50%:

Romney - 49.2%
Obama - 48.7%

Romney wins the popular vote due to Sandy hitting more (D) leaning states (and because the lulz would be truly epic, call it payback for 2000).
 
2012-11-05 01:49:15 PM  
Obama -- 332
Romney -- 206

I think Florida is going to flip back to blue despite the polls there.

Popular vote:
Obama -- 47.8
Romney -- 47.2
Gary Johnson -- 5.0 (wishful thinking on my part)
 
2012-11-05 01:50:01 PM  
i'm going with 303/235 as well.
 
2012-11-05 01:50:16 PM  
Ryogam

Obama 281 49.6
Romney 257 48.1

Popular vote left-overs for 3rd party candidates
 
2012-11-05 01:50:27 PM  
My boring prediction that looks like everyone else's
 
Though I think Virginia could easily go Romney and take it to 290-248
 
2012-11-05 01:50:30 PM  
I'm going to take a long shot, for the sake of gambling.
Obama. 342, 49.7
Romney 196, 48.4
 
2012-11-05 01:50:44 PM  
Link
Obama 272
Romney 266

Popular Vote
Obama 50.3%
Romney 47.1%
Other 3.2%
 
2012-11-05 01:50:56 PM  
O - 294 / 50.4
R - 244 / 49.2
 
2012-11-05 01:50:59 PM  
Prediction: Obama 294, Romney 244.
Popular vote: 50.6 to 49.2.
Time: between 9:30 PM and 11:30 PM EST.
Recount: Ohio will be close but not decisive.

Obama wins Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire; Romney takes Florida and upsets Obama in Colorado.
 
2012-11-05 01:51:00 PM  

Seacop: Romney's got this.

Three statisticals..

1. 30% of Hillary supporters for Romney
2. 1 in 7 undecided
3. Silent Majority

Romney wins. You guys are gonna be sooo pissed off.


He's going to win big. They will be pissed when the shock wears off.
 
2012-11-05 01:51:05 PM  
 
2012-11-05 01:51:16 PM  
O 49.9% 306

R 48.1% 232

Senate: 54/46 (D/R)
 
2012-11-05 01:52:45 PM  

Seacop: Romney's got this.

Three statisticals..

1. 30% of Hillary supporters for Romney
2. 1 in 7 undecided
3. Silent Majority

Romney wins. You guys are gonna be sooo pissed off.


Speaking of three statisticals, just for comment's sake... if we had a three party system, would that mean each state gets three senators?

Link
 
2012-11-05 01:52:51 PM  
ONGOING TALLY

Predictions: 52
Predictions of Obama Win: 90%

Median Obama EV: 303
Median Romney EV: 235
Mode Obama EV: 303
Mode Romney EV: 235
Mode as Percent of Total: 52%


Median Obama PV: 50.2
Median Romney PV: 48.65

Max Obama EV Prediction: 342
Max Obama PV Prediction: 51.5

Min Obama EV Prediction: 249
Min Obama PV Prediction: 47.8

Max Obama PV Spread: 5
Max Romney PV Spread: 0.9
 
2012-11-05 01:52:59 PM  
I like to think big
 
2012-11-05 01:53:16 PM  

Gonz: I'm going to take a long shot, for the sake of gambling.
Obama. 342, 49.7
Romney 196, 48.4


In this type of pool, you have a better chance of winning with an outlier.
 
2012-11-05 01:53:18 PM  
imageshack.us

Electoral: Obama 369, Mitsy 169
Popular: Aw hell, let's say Obama 52.5%, Mitsy 46%, Other 1.5%

Yeah, mofos, I'm calling Arizona and NC for Obama. A lot of people really do not like Mittens...they're just not screeching psychos about it the way the Obama haters are.
 
2012-11-05 01:53:36 PM  
Oh goddamnit, whatever. Give all battleground states except NC to Obama. There's my map
 
2012-11-05 01:53:59 PM  
Is anyone going to put all these predictions all in one post for easy viewing and posting in the election night threads? Please? Anyone?
 
2012-11-05 01:54:10 PM  
sphotos-b.ak.fbcdn.net
 
2012-11-05 01:54:31 PM  
i.imgur.com

yes I know this is different then my earlier prediction - but that was just so I had a unique spot on the official prediction list.

This is the map I think is most likely.
 
2012-11-05 01:54:35 PM  
Mmkay Let's see if this works.
/First pic.
 
2012-11-05 01:54:42 PM  

DamnYankees: Mode as Percent of Total: 52%


That should say 18%, sorry.
 
2012-11-05 01:54:46 PM  

DamnYankees: ONGOING TALLY


When are you closing the wicket?
 
2012-11-05 01:54:53 PM  
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bliX

Still a bit of a pessimist

Obama 290 49.0
Romney 248 48.1
 
Displayed 50 of 524 comments

First | « | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | » | Last | Show all

View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest


This thread is archived, and closed to new comments.

Continue Farking
Submit a Link »
Advertisement
On Twitter






In Other Media


  1. Links are submitted by members of the Fark community.

  2. When community members submit a link, they also write a custom headline for the story.

  3. Other Farkers comment on the links. This is the number of comments. Click here to read them.

  4. Click here to submit a link.

Report