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(270 To Win)   Fark Electoral College Contest: post your best guesstimate of how the final electoral college map will look after Tuesday's election. Up for grabs: bragging rights for the next four years in the Politics tab   (270towin.com) divider line 524
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1461 clicks; posted to Politics » on 05 Nov 2012 at 1:39 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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Archived thread
 
2012-11-05 11:56:08 AM
Really? We already have a thread on this with over 45 comments and 12 predictions which are being tracked in an excel file. Is there a reason to start a new one?

http://www.fark.com/comments/7417832/Its-that-time-of-year-Make-your- o fficial-electoral-college-prediction-winner-will-recieve-something-of- very-little-value-Make-sure-to-include-popular-vote-prediction-to-one- decimal-place-as-a-tie-breaker
 
2012-11-05 11:57:36 AM
I guess I might as well port over all the information:

I'll be keeping track of all this in an excel file and once everything is called I'll give the winner a month of TF for free.

My prediction is 303-235 Obama, and he wins the popular vote 50.8 - 48.9. Here are the other predictions that have already been made:

DamnYankees 303 235 50.8 48.9
Aarontology 332 206 50.6 48.5
TheCharmerUnderMe 328 210 50.5 48.8
NowhereMon  304 234 51 48
OtherLittleGuy 290 248 49.3 48.9
The Great EZE  303 235 50.2 48.6
Majick Thise 304 234 49.8 48
mrshowrules 284 254
GAT_00  285 253 50.4 49.2
NuttierThanEver  304 234 50.4 48.1
hillbillypharmacist 290 248 49.8 47.4
propasaurus 305 233 50.6 48.5
 
2012-11-05 12:01:42 PM
Whatever Nate Silver is saying.
 
2012-11-05 12:01:56 PM

DamnYankees: Really? We already have a thread on this with over 45 comments and 12 predictions which are being tracked in an excel file. Is there a reason to start a new one?


Well, yes as far as I am concerned, because this is the first time I've seen it. Although I guess they could just reup the previous thread.

Anyway I agree with you. Obama 303, Romney 235.
 
2012-11-05 12:03:04 PM

gilgigamesh: Well, yes as far as I am concerned, because this is the first time I've seen it. Although I guess they could just reup the previous thread.


They made the other thread red. I'm just saying they should have greened that one rather than greening one with 0 comments.

gilgigamesh: Anyway I agree with you. Obama 303, Romney 235.


Popular vote prediction for tie-breaking?
 
vpb [TotalFark]
2012-11-05 12:03:36 PM
Obama 311-227
 
2012-11-05 12:05:37 PM
Romney 271.  I don't believe it, but I wish it were so.  So, I'm going with my heart.  A squeaker with Obama getting Ohio and Romney getting Wisconsin of all things.
 
More likely, a close sweep of the swing states by Obama.
 
2012-11-05 12:07:27 PM
332-206 Obama.
 
2012-11-05 12:09:43 PM
290-248 Obama
PV: 49.5 48.1 Obama
 
2012-11-05 12:12:05 PM
i.imgur.com
 
2012-11-05 12:12:44 PM

DamnYankees: Popular vote prediction for tie-breaking?


Ah, ok. Um, Fartbongzer0 49.7%, Mittens 49.0%, third party .3%. Just to throw bombs around the thread.
 
2012-11-05 12:13:36 PM

DamnYankees: Really? We already have a thread on this


Redlight threads can only be seen by TFers. This one is for all Farkers.
 
2012-11-05 12:14:28 PM

Moderator: DamnYankees: Really? We already have a thread on this

Redlight threads can only be seen by TFers. This one is for all Farkers.


Yes, I know. I was just saying you could have greened the other one. Can I make a simple request to ask people in the headline to also include popular vote totals? Otherwise we're not going to have tiebreakers.

Sorry for being a pain on this.
 
2012-11-05 12:14:55 PM
Romney 289-249, though we likely won't know the result tomorrow night or even the day after.
 
2012-11-05 12:16:17 PM

DamnYankees: Moderator: DamnYankees: Really? We already have a thread on this

Redlight threads can only be seen by TFers. This one is for all Farkers.

Yes, I know. I was just saying you could have greened the other one. Can I make a simple request to ask people in the headline to also include popular vote totals? Otherwise we're not going to have tiebreakers.

Sorry for being a pain on this.


Recap for simplicity:

O: 303 - 49.7
R: 235 - 49.0
 
2012-11-05 12:17:36 PM
Nothing shocking:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bkvW

O: 303
R: 235
 
2012-11-05 12:17:45 PM

Moderator: DamnYankees: Really? We already have a thread on this

Redlight threads can only be seen by TFers. This one is for all Farkers.


More than a little bit of a dick move to not green his and make a new one since we were already using the original.
 
2012-11-05 12:19:13 PM

GAT_00: Moderator: DamnYankees: Really? We already have a thread on this

Redlight threads can only be seen by TFers. This one is for all Farkers.

More than a little bit of a dick move to not green his and make a new one since we were already using the original.


Maybe they didn't see the other one - not a big deal. The only issue now is there's no notice to give a popular vote total so we're gonna have ties (most likely). There's only a discrete number of reasonable EV outcomes.
 
2012-11-05 12:20:57 PM
My predictions: Obama 303 / Romney 235
 
Of the "battleground" states, I predict Obama will win Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada while Romney will take Florida and North Carolina.
 
I'm not sold on the Virginia and Colorado picks, but I'm going with my gut on this one.
 
2012-11-05 12:22:11 PM
270 - 268 Obama. I have Obama winning Nevada, Michigan, Virginia, New Hampshire and Wisconsin but losing Ohio and Florida.
 
2012-11-05 12:23:35 PM

WTF Indeed: 332-206 Obama.


Bless you sir. That was funny.
 
2012-11-05 12:23:41 PM
I was told when I got a TF subscription, that Paypal would do all my math.
How about Obama 60% of the votes and Romney 45% 40%
 
2012-11-05 12:24:31 PM
ONGOING TALLY

Predictions: 20
Predictions of Obama Win: 90%

Median Obama EV: 303
Median Romney EV 235
Mode Obama EV: 303
Mode Romney EV: 235

Median Obama PV: 50.4
Median Romney PV: 48.5

Max Obama EV Prediction: 332
Min Obama EV Prediction: 249
 
2012-11-05 12:24:48 PM
Obama: 1
Romney: 1

Why yes. I am that annoying dick on The Price is Right who says everything is a buck.
 
2012-11-05 12:25:27 PM

DamnYankees: The only issue now is there's no notice to give a popular vote total so we're gonna have ties (most likely).

 
The headline here says the "winner" gets bragging rights. Sounds like the subby of this thread wanted to make things simple, unlike your redlit submission.
 
2012-11-05 12:27:10 PM

Man On A Mission: The headline here says the "winner" gets bragging rights. Sounds like the subby of this thread wanted to make things simple, unlike your redlit submission.


Yes, my redlit was so complicated. Asking for PV also.

I offered a month free TF for the winner just for fun. I just wanted to make sure there actually was a winner. Sorry for the hassle!
 
2012-11-05 12:27:42 PM

DamnYankees: mrshowrules 284 254


Please add the percentage to mine Obama: 49.5% to Romney 48.5%, Other 2.0%
 
2012-11-05 12:28:42 PM

DamnYankees: Man On A Mission: The headline here says the "winner" gets bragging rights. Sounds like the subby of this thread wanted to make things simple, unlike your redlit submission.

Yes, my redlit was so complicated. Asking for PV also.

I offered a month free TF for the winner just for fun. I just wanted to make sure there actually was a winner. Sorry for the hassle!


What do you do if more than one Farker calls it right? The percentage as a tie-breaker?
 
2012-11-05 12:29:10 PM

mrshowrules: What do you do if more than one Farker calls it right? The percentage as a tie-breaker?


Yes, that was the idea.
 
2012-11-05 12:41:46 PM

DamnYankees: I guess I might as well port over all the information:

I'll be keeping track of all this in an excel file and once everything is called I'll give the winner a month of TF for free.

My prediction is 303-235 Obama, and he wins the popular vote 50.8 - 48.9. Here are the other predictions that have already been made:

DamnYankees 303 235 50.8 48.9
Aarontology 332 206 50.6 48.5
TheCharmerUnderMe 328 210 50.5 48.8
NowhereMon  304 234 51 48
OtherLittleGuy 290 248 49.3 48.9
The Great EZE  303 235 50.2 48.6
Majick Thise 304 234 49.8 48
mrshowrules 284 254
GAT_00  285 253 50.4 49.2
NuttierThanEver  304 234 50.4 48.1
hillbillypharmacist 290 248 49.8 47.4
propasaurus 305 233 50.6 48.5


Correction for you, from the other thread -

EV: O 290, R 248

PV: R 49.3 O 48.9

Obama wins the EV, Romney wins the PV.

/yes, I'm predicting 4 years of cacophany
 
2012-11-05 12:43:09 PM

OtherLittleGuy: Correction for you, from the other thread -

EV: O 290, R 248

PV: R 49.3 O 48.9

Obama wins the EV, Romney wins the PV.


Ah, thanks. Missed that. Fixed now.
 
2012-11-05 12:52:17 PM
My prediction:

O = 303 EV, 50.5% PV
R = 235 EV, 48.4% PV
 
2012-11-05 12:53:53 PM
Okay, I'll play.

O: 288 50.2
R: 250 49.3
 
2012-11-05 12:57:58 PM
Obama: 271, 49.8% PV
Romney: 267, 49.9% PV

Enmappinated

/book it
//done
 
2012-11-05 01:04:07 PM
I'll take a twist on an otherwise easy bet: O gets the easy ones, doesn't get FL, but picks up NC.

Obama with 318
PV: 51.5 vs. 47

O's numerical advantage in FL which is rendered moot due a can of gas and a match suddenly appearing over bags of ballots from blue-leaning districts. Shocking, I know. Obama takes NC but it's close otherwise.
 
2012-11-05 01:07:13 PM
Obama: 269, 50.2%
Romney: 269, 48.9%
 
2012-11-05 01:08:03 PM

downstairs: Obama: 269, 50.2%
Romney: 269, 48.9%


This would be a hellish outcome. Luckily its extraordinarily unlikely.
 
2012-11-05 01:12:57 PM
To repeat:

O 305-R233
50.6% - 48.5%
 
2012-11-05 01:13:56 PM
Obama: 281, 49.9%
Romney: 257, 49.1%
Mappy time
 
2012-11-05 01:14:34 PM

DamnYankees: downstairs: Obama: 269, 50.2%
Romney: 269, 48.9%

This would be a hellish outcome. Luckily its extraordinarily unlikely.



It would be amusing and informative.  But yes, it has downsides.  Imagine the litigation and recounts.
 
I posted above, but here it is with PV
 
Romney 271 - 48.9
Obama 267 - 48.4
 
Third parties steal the rest of the PV.
 
2012-11-05 01:15:03 PM
I am, apparently, insane, since after looking at the site, I'm coming up with Obama 337, Romney 197. So, sure, let's go with that.
 
2012-11-05 01:15:34 PM
dl.dropbox.com

New Hampshire always seems to do strange things. That's the one I think beats the polls.

Popular vote:

Obama 50.4%
Romney 48.5%
 
2012-11-05 01:15:43 PM
SlothB77 Prediction:

R 48.8% 273
O 48.2% 265
 
2012-11-05 01:16:22 PM

timujin: I am, apparently, insane, since after looking at the site, I'm coming up with Obama 337, Romney 197. So, sure, let's go with that.


also, I really, really love commas.
 
2012-11-05 01:16:22 PM

timujin: I am, apparently, insane, since after looking at the site, I'm coming up with Obama 337, Romney 197. So, sure, let's go with that.


That doesn't add up to 538.
 
2012-11-05 01:19:32 PM

DamnYankees: timujin: I am, apparently, insane, since after looking at the site, I'm coming up with Obama 337, Romney 197. So, sure, let's go with that.

That doesn't add up to 538.


whoops, 341 - 197, sorry about that.

/see? looney tunes
 
2012-11-05 01:19:57 PM
www.macmeisters.com
 
2012-11-05 01:20:09 PM
Obama 313 - 50.4
Romney 223 - 48.1
 
2012-11-05 01:20:59 PM

Outtaphase: Obama 313 - 50.4
Romney 223 - 48.1


That doesn't add up to 538.
 
2012-11-05 01:21:58 PM
Thread is worthless without Jackson Herring's pic.
 
2012-11-05 01:32:54 PM

Majick Thise: [www.macmeisters.com image 800x552]


Agreed.

O - 304
R - 234
 
2012-11-05 01:36:10 PM

SlothB77: SlothB77 Prediction:

R 48.8% 273
O 48.2% 265


Wise going with 273 because 271 would have looked desperate. Just like when you are 18 in a bar and the ask your age, always say 23 not 21 because that looks suspicious.
 
2012-11-05 01:40:40 PM

DamnYankees: DamnYankees 303 235 50.8 48.9


I see you've talked yourself off the edge that you seemed ready to jump off of post-Denver. Good to see.
 
2012-11-05 01:41:26 PM
FWIW Rush Limbaugh's show sounds like a funeral today.
 
2012-11-05 01:41:32 PM

bartink: DamnYankees: DamnYankees 303 235 50.8 48.9

I see you've talked yourself off the edge that you seemed ready to jump off of post-Denver. Good to see.


Don't confuse my intellectual confidence of the probably of an Obama win with the emotional terror that comes from thinking he might lose. I have both in ample amounts.
 
2012-11-05 01:42:54 PM
303 - 235 for Obama, with 51.5 - 46.5 popular vote
 
2012-11-05 01:43:08 PM
286 O - 252 R 50.4/48.2
 
2012-11-05 01:43:29 PM

bartink: DamnYankees: DamnYankees 303 235 50.8 48.9

I see you've talked yourself off the edge that you seemed ready to jump off of post-Denver. Good to see.


I farkied him as "DOOOMYankees" after a few days of it.
 
2012-11-05 01:43:52 PM
Romney: 336
Obama: 197
 
2012-11-05 01:44:37 PM

badhatharry: Romney: 336
Obama: 197


That doesn't add up to 538.
 
2012-11-05 01:44:49 PM
I had Obama taking all but NC and FL making it 303-235 a few weeks ago, even when VA didn't look good.

I feel more comfortable with that pick, since that's what Sam Wang thinks the election will go, as of an hour ago.
 
2012-11-05 01:45:14 PM
Obama-294
Rmoney-244
 
2012-11-05 01:46:05 PM
Romney wins by 0.8 National and Electoral college by 8 points
 
2012-11-05 01:46:07 PM
i.qkme.me
 
2012-11-05 01:46:14 PM
I'm really torn on Colorado, but I"m giving Obama everything else except CO, NC and FL

Obama 294
Romney 244
 
2012-11-05 01:46:26 PM
Just to be different from everyone else, I'm going to say that Mittens manages to pull off a victory in Colorado, but Obama manages to win Florida. So I'm going to say the final results look like this:

www.majhost.com

Electoral vote: Obama 323, Mittens 215
Popular vote: Obama 50.5, Mittens 48.7

I think Obama's share of the the popular vote will be artificially decreased a bit because some people in the Northeast won't bother to vote because of all of the Sandy problems, and that area is mostly Obama territory. It won't affect the electoral vote because Obama and Romney voters in the area would be affected the same, but it will decrease those states' shares of the total popular votes cast nationwide.
 
2012-11-05 01:46:52 PM

JerseyTim: Whatever Nate Silver is saying.


THIS
 
2012-11-05 01:46:55 PM
Electoral: Obama 294, Romney 244

Popular: Obama 50.2 percent, Romney 48.9percent.
 
2012-11-05 01:47:02 PM
Obama: 297 - 50.4%
Romney: 241 - 48.7%
 
2012-11-05 01:47:03 PM
Obama 303
Romney 235

Obama 49.5%
Romney 49.5%
Third Parties 1%

Popular vote statistical tie for the lulz
 
2012-11-05 01:47:19 PM
Link

309-229
 
2012-11-05 01:47:19 PM

DamnYankees: badhatharry: Romney: 341
Obama: 197

That doesn't add up to 538.


Oops.
 
2012-11-05 01:47:42 PM
Curses, someone else has my number taken already, but my popular will be different:

Obama: 290
Romney: 248

Popular vote:
Obama: 49.7
Romney: 49.9
 
2012-11-05 01:48:23 PM
The morning of Nov 7

Obama 282 49.5
Romney 256 50.4

After a month of court challenges

Romney 274
Obama 268
 
2012-11-05 01:48:40 PM
Romney's got this.

Three statisticals..

1. 30% of Hillary supporters for Romney
2. 1 in 7 undecided
3. Silent Majority

Romney wins. You guys are gonna be sooo pissed off.
 
2012-11-05 01:49:01 PM
318 Obama
220 Romney

Link

I also predict Romney wins the popular vote and neither candidate breaks 50%:

Romney - 49.2%
Obama - 48.7%

Romney wins the popular vote due to Sandy hitting more (D) leaning states (and because the lulz would be truly epic, call it payback for 2000).
 
2012-11-05 01:49:15 PM
Obama -- 332
Romney -- 206

I think Florida is going to flip back to blue despite the polls there.

Popular vote:
Obama -- 47.8
Romney -- 47.2
Gary Johnson -- 5.0 (wishful thinking on my part)
 
2012-11-05 01:50:01 PM
i'm going with 303/235 as well.
 
2012-11-05 01:50:16 PM
Ryogam

Obama 281 49.6
Romney 257 48.1

Popular vote left-overs for 3rd party candidates
 
2012-11-05 01:50:27 PM
My boring prediction that looks like everyone else's
 
Though I think Virginia could easily go Romney and take it to 290-248
 
2012-11-05 01:50:30 PM
I'm going to take a long shot, for the sake of gambling.
Obama. 342, 49.7
Romney 196, 48.4
 
2012-11-05 01:50:44 PM
Link
Obama 272
Romney 266

Popular Vote
Obama 50.3%
Romney 47.1%
Other 3.2%
 
2012-11-05 01:50:56 PM
O - 294 / 50.4
R - 244 / 49.2
 
2012-11-05 01:50:59 PM
Prediction: Obama 294, Romney 244.
Popular vote: 50.6 to 49.2.
Time: between 9:30 PM and 11:30 PM EST.
Recount: Ohio will be close but not decisive.

Obama wins Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire; Romney takes Florida and upsets Obama in Colorado.
 
2012-11-05 01:51:00 PM

Seacop: Romney's got this.

Three statisticals..

1. 30% of Hillary supporters for Romney
2. 1 in 7 undecided
3. Silent Majority

Romney wins. You guys are gonna be sooo pissed off.


He's going to win big. They will be pissed when the shock wears off.
 
2012-11-05 01:51:05 PM
 
2012-11-05 01:51:16 PM
O 49.9% 306

R 48.1% 232

Senate: 54/46 (D/R)
 
2012-11-05 01:52:45 PM

Seacop: Romney's got this.

Three statisticals..

1. 30% of Hillary supporters for Romney
2. 1 in 7 undecided
3. Silent Majority

Romney wins. You guys are gonna be sooo pissed off.


Speaking of three statisticals, just for comment's sake... if we had a three party system, would that mean each state gets three senators?

Link
 
2012-11-05 01:52:51 PM
ONGOING TALLY

Predictions: 52
Predictions of Obama Win: 90%

Median Obama EV: 303
Median Romney EV: 235
Mode Obama EV: 303
Mode Romney EV: 235
Mode as Percent of Total: 52%


Median Obama PV: 50.2
Median Romney PV: 48.65

Max Obama EV Prediction: 342
Max Obama PV Prediction: 51.5

Min Obama EV Prediction: 249
Min Obama PV Prediction: 47.8

Max Obama PV Spread: 5
Max Romney PV Spread: 0.9
 
2012-11-05 01:52:59 PM
I like to think big
 
2012-11-05 01:53:16 PM

Gonz: I'm going to take a long shot, for the sake of gambling.
Obama. 342, 49.7
Romney 196, 48.4


In this type of pool, you have a better chance of winning with an outlier.
 
2012-11-05 01:53:18 PM
imageshack.us

Electoral: Obama 369, Mitsy 169
Popular: Aw hell, let's say Obama 52.5%, Mitsy 46%, Other 1.5%

Yeah, mofos, I'm calling Arizona and NC for Obama. A lot of people really do not like Mittens...they're just not screeching psychos about it the way the Obama haters are.
 
2012-11-05 01:53:36 PM
Oh goddamnit, whatever. Give all battleground states except NC to Obama. There's my map
 
2012-11-05 01:53:59 PM
Is anyone going to put all these predictions all in one post for easy viewing and posting in the election night threads? Please? Anyone?
 
2012-11-05 01:54:10 PM
sphotos-b.ak.fbcdn.net
 
2012-11-05 01:54:31 PM
i.imgur.com

yes I know this is different then my earlier prediction - but that was just so I had a unique spot on the official prediction list.

This is the map I think is most likely.
 
2012-11-05 01:54:35 PM
Mmkay Let's see if this works.
/First pic.
 
2012-11-05 01:54:42 PM

DamnYankees: Mode as Percent of Total: 52%


That should say 18%, sorry.
 
2012-11-05 01:54:46 PM

DamnYankees: ONGOING TALLY


When are you closing the wicket?
 
2012-11-05 01:54:53 PM
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bliX

Still a bit of a pessimist

Obama 290 49.0
Romney 248 48.1
 
2012-11-05 01:55:33 PM

RyogaM: Is anyone going to put all these predictions all in one post for easy viewing and posting in the election night threads? Please? Anyone?


I will.
 
2012-11-05 01:56:05 PM
i.imgur.com

Obama: 278
Romney: 260

Popular vote: O: 49.7 R: 48.9

//I think that Obama will win despite widespread voter suppression and other malarkey
 
2012-11-05 01:56:08 PM

mrshowrules: DamnYankees: ONGOING TALLY

When are you closing the wicket?


When I get tired of putting this shiat into excel.
 
2012-11-05 01:56:20 PM
329Obama
Florida is close and there are already GOP shenanigans, so it could end up 300 Obama
 
2012-11-05 01:56:37 PM
Obama 277 (50.3), Romney 261 (48.9) (rest of pop to 3rd parties)
Map
 
2012-11-05 01:56:58 PM
My guess is going to be based solely on the this question: Looking at the numbers from Princeton and FiveThirtyEight, do I flip Florida Romney, or do I flip Florida Obama? The former will give us a 303 O - R 235 spit, and the latter 332 O - R 206. And man, let me tell you, we are talking coin toss here, the probabilities are with in 5% over 538. I don't buy flipping NE D2, Looking at 538, O has a better chance of flipping NC...

You know, I'm going to go for it: 332 O - R 206, based on the point that I'm pretty sure Obama's ground game is stronger, and Florida probably wants a president who can deal with hurricanes.

332 O - R 206
(chosen over 303 O - R 235)
 
2012-11-05 01:57:19 PM

mrshowrules: SlothB77: SlothB77 Prediction:

R 48.8% 273
O 48.2% 265

Wise going with 273 because 271 would have looked desperate. Just like when you are 18 in a bar and the ask your age, always say 23 not 21 because that looks suspicious.


With how the electoral votes are spread across potential swing states, to use a poker term, there are a lot of outs to get to exactly 273 for Romney. A lot of different possible combinations get the same 273/265 totals.
 
2012-11-05 01:57:19 PM
Obama: 290
Romney: 248
 
2012-11-05 01:58:18 PM
will be interesting to see the discussion evolve now that Gallup is back 'in line' with everyone else
 
2012-11-05 01:58:28 PM
My prediction...


www.cubicdissection.com
 
2012-11-05 01:58:56 PM
Nate Silver's prediction (from 538):
Obama 307 (50.6)
Romney 231 (48.5)

Dean Chambers' prediction (from unskewedpolls)
Obama 227 (45.8)
Romney 311 (50.0)

Sam Wang's histogram (from Princeton Election Consortium):
election.princeton.edu
 
2012-11-05 01:59:20 PM
I'm in.

Obama 304 / 50.7%
Romney 234 / 48.2%

I figure Obama takes CO, OH, VA, NH, and NE-2. Romney takes FL and NC.
 
2012-11-05 01:59:34 PM

Man On A Mission: My predictions: Obama 303 / Romney 235
 
Of the "battleground" states, I predict Obama will win Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada while Romney will take Florida and North Carolina.
 
I'm not sold on the Virginia and Colorado picks, but I'm going with my gut on this one.


As a Colorado resident, I can agree with your colorado pick. We're very socially liberal and fiscally conservative (tight fisted farks!), and Romney's plans don't really go with either of these. We may be a bit "light blue," but we'll go for Obama in the end.
 
2012-11-05 01:59:39 PM
Link

Popular vote:

Obama: 50.2%
Romney: 48.4%
Johnson: 1.4%
 
2012-11-05 01:59:54 PM
Can't seem to post mine. My pic posting fu is weak.

Prediction:Obangma 299.
Mittbot:239.
 
2012-11-05 02:00:28 PM
EV
Obama: 307
Romney: 231

Popular
Obama: 48.5
Romney: 47.6%
Other: 3.9%
 
2012-11-05 02:00:40 PM
I'd like to state ahead of time I do not want this to be the result, but here's where I think we'll go:

Romney: 275
Obama: 263

Romney: 49.2%
Obama: 48.9%

I am basing this on the fact that I think Democrats will not turn out to vote near the prior election cycle's numbers (I've already started hearing the "Obama will win anyway" from younger voters), and that there will be a certain amount of election fraud where it matters.

That said, in the choice between Obama and Romney, I will be happy if I am wrong.

I think if the media hadn't turned the whole thing into a horse race Obama would have won in a landslide. Basically just throwing a gut guess out there for the hell of it

/not voting for O or R, and no, my vote doesn't matter where I live
 
2012-11-05 02:01:57 PM
Obama-EC Obama-pct Romney-EC Romney-pct
291 50.1 247 47.9
 
2012-11-05 02:01:58 PM

saintstryfe: [i.imgur.com image 785x583]

yes I know this is different then my earlier prediction - but that was just so I had a unique spot on the official prediction list.

This is the map I think is most likely.


I'm with you. Linky: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=blnH

Obummer: 290
Rmoney: 248

/go Obama
 
2012-11-05 02:03:58 PM
Please please please let the usual suspects drop trowel in here with their predictions. You know who you are. Please report to thread 7418082.
 
2012-11-05 02:04:02 PM
shiat, did the math wrong.

EV
Obama: 303
Romney: 235

Popular
Obama: 48.5
Romney: 47.6%
Other: 3.9%
 
2012-11-05 02:06:02 PM
D: 332
R: 206

Link

Obama gets 50.6 % of the popular vote.

CNN declares that Romney performed strongly. Wolf Blitzer calls it a tie.
 
2012-11-05 02:06:20 PM
Well hard to win anything if you bet the same as everyone else. So, for the month of Total Fark:

Romney 275 49.1%
Obama 263 47.9%

Romney wins Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado. Recounts in all three states after exit polls show Obama 2-3 points ahead. Winner not declared for at least 48 hours. Our long national nightmare gets longer. But hey I'll get a month of Total Fark. Totally worth it.
 
2012-11-05 02:06:28 PM
O-303 R-235
O-50.6 R-48.4

That's if there are not overwhelming shenanigans in Ohio.
 
2012-11-05 02:06:39 PM
Obama 303 50.5%
Romney 235 49.1%
 
2012-11-05 02:07:24 PM
O: 258
R: 281

PV O:47 R:50 I:3
 
2012-11-05 02:07:53 PM

3_Butt_Cheeks: O: 258
R: 281

PV O:47 R:50 I:3


That doesn't ad up to 538.
 
2012-11-05 02:08:33 PM
299 to 239... a solid 60-point margin.

Pop. vote... 49.0 to 48.1.
 
2012-11-05 02:09:02 PM
O: 280
R: 258

Calling the Maine split.
 
2012-11-05 02:09:48 PM
My humble predictions. I'm no Nate Silver, but I think I will get pretty doggone close.

Obama
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Iowa
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New York
Ohio
Rhode Island
Vermont
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Oregon

Romney
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
Florida
Georgia
Indiana
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
North Carolina
North Dakota
Oklahoma
Tennessee
South Carolina
South Dakota
Texas
Utah
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wyoming
 
2012-11-05 02:10:08 PM

thenewmissus: My humble predictions. I'm no Nate Silver, but I think I will get pretty doggone close.


I'm not doing the math on that.
 
2012-11-05 02:10:51 PM

DamnYankees: 3_Butt_Cheeks: O: 258
R: 281

PV O:47 R:50 I:3

That doesn't ad up to 538.


O 257
R 281
 
2012-11-05 02:11:36 PM

Cyberluddite: Just to be different from everyone else, I'm going to say that Mittens manages to pull off a victory in Colorado, but Obama manages to win Florida. So I'm going to say the final results look like this:

[www.majhost.com image 797x614]

Electoral vote: Obama 323, Mittens 215
Popular vote: Obama 50.5, Mittens 48.7

I think Obama's share of the the popular vote will be artificially decreased a bit because some people in the Northeast won't bother to vote because of all of the Sandy problems, and that area is mostly Obama territory. It won't affect the electoral vote because Obama and Romney voters in the area would be affected the same, but it will decrease those states' shares of the total popular votes cast nationwide.


That's what I have too, at least for the EV. I'm guessing the PV will be pretty similar to what you have there too. Florida has been very close, but a lot of Farkers are giving to to Rmoney. I think that Obama's leadership during Sandy will make him look good to the people in FL who deal with hurricanes a lot, and that might put him over the top there. I'm also guessing that Gary Johnson steals the pothead vote in Colorado and hands it to Romney there, but both of those states will be close.

So:
Obama 323
Mittens 215
 
2012-11-05 02:12:24 PM
Obama 303, 50.2 percent
Romney 235, 48.6 percent
 
2012-11-05 02:13:46 PM
I would say 290 - 248, Obama's favor.

I think Colorado is gonna be an upset Romney Win. Even though all the polls show Obama in the lead, the early vote is in and apparently the Repubs are crushing it there, Which disheartens me. Romney will still lose.
 
2012-11-05 02:14:12 PM

SacriliciousBeerSwiller: [imageshack.us image 640x442]

Electoral: Obama 369, Mitsy 169
Popular: Aw hell, let's say Obama 52.5%, Mitsy 46%, Other 1.5%

Yeah, mofos, I'm calling Arizona and NC for Obama. A lot of people really do not like Mittens...they're just not screeching psychos about it the way the Obama haters are.


I'll take yours and add anti-rape pushes in IN/MO. Even the blue-hairs here in Indiana are pissed.

i.imgur.com
 
2012-11-05 02:14:15 PM

DrD'isInfotainment: 329Obama
Florida is close and there are already GOP shenanigans, so it could end up 300 Obama


Whoops: I forgot to click on DC (do they really have 3 EVs?)
Anyway:I revise my prediction to 332 unless RickScott Inc prevails with his shenanigans, in which case it's 303
 
2012-11-05 02:14:17 PM
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bltz

290/248 For Obama.
 
2012-11-05 02:14:37 PM
My August prediction still stands.

Obama wins Electoral and Popular vote.
Electoral final Obama 303 Romney 235
Popular vote Obama 51.8%
 
2012-11-05 02:15:46 PM
i.imgur.com

just for the epicness

/really thinks Obama gets all the swingers but Florida
 
2012-11-05 02:16:00 PM
Obama: 332
Romney: 206

Obama: 50.3
Romney: 48.7

/Obama wins Florida
 
2012-11-05 02:16:18 PM

GardenWeasel: SacriliciousBeerSwiller: [imageshack.us image 640x442]

Electoral: Obama 369, Mitsy 169
Popular: Aw hell, let's say Obama 52.5%, Mitsy 46%, Other 1.5%

Yeah, mofos, I'm calling Arizona and NC for Obama. A lot of people really do not like Mittens...they're just not screeching psychos about it the way the Obama haters are.

I'll take yours and add anti-rape pushes in IN/MO. Even the blue-hairs here in Indiana are pissed.

[i.imgur.com image 625x491]


I wish I could agree about AZ, but there are too many Mormons here who will vote for Romney just because of his religion. And if they don't, they'll vote for RON PAUL. But not enough to swing an Obama win in AZ.
 
2012-11-05 02:16:41 PM
Obama: 303 Electoral Votes
Romney: 235 Electoral Votes

Popular Vote:
Obama: 50.4%
Romney: 48.6%
 
2012-11-05 02:17:01 PM
Obama: EV: 332 PV: 51.3%

Romney: EV: 206 PV: 47.6%

This assumes a model with all battleground states going to Obama except North Carolina.
 
2012-11-05 02:17:54 PM
Obama: 319
Romney: 219

YOU'RE WELCOME
 
2012-11-05 02:17:59 PM
Obama 275, Romney 263. You heard it here first, folks.
 
2012-11-05 02:18:04 PM
Oh, and map in case it wasn't obvious.
 
2012-11-05 02:18:10 PM
i.imgur.com
 
2012-11-05 02:18:14 PM
180 Johnson
180 Stein
178 RON PAUL

With RON PAUL taking a plurality with write in votes.
 
2012-11-05 02:18:38 PM

President Raygun: I would say 290 - 248, Obama's favor.

I think Colorado is gonna be an upset Romney Win. Even though all the polls show Obama in the lead, the early vote is in and apparently the Repubs are crushing it there, Which disheartens me. Romney will still lose.


For what it is worth I am in an American Gov class and this morning the teacher, who is very involved in the campaign, told us that most Colorado counties are enormously behind in counting the early votes. The campaign workers he has been working with have been on the phones constantly and for the last week they have heard a ton of "I already voted" which, I guess, should have been reported if they were registered and taken off their lists. So I wouldn't take much stock in any finding about the early votes in CO at this point.
 
2012-11-05 02:18:42 PM
i567.photobucket.com

you libtards are going to be so pissed off.
 
2012-11-05 02:19:15 PM

Lord Dimwit: Obama 275, Romney 263. You heard it here first, folks.


You are indeed the first person (out of 83) to make this particular EV prediction.
 
2012-11-05 02:19:23 PM
farm8.staticflickr.com

Obama just over 50% popular vote (under 51%)
 
2012-11-05 02:20:03 PM
Nobody's going along with Jim Cramer's 440?
 
2012-11-05 02:20:22 PM
Obama: 300, 50.1% PV
Romney: 238, 49.2% PV
 
2012-11-05 02:20:40 PM
Obama 332, Romney 206 via Huffington Post's make-your-own-map
 
2012-11-05 02:21:00 PM
Obama 531
Romney 7

And Texas overslept and forgot to vote.

\Nailed it.
 
2012-11-05 02:21:09 PM

propasaurus: Nobody's going along with Jim Cramer's 440?


Was that a typo?
 
2012-11-05 02:21:34 PM

The Evil That Lies In The Hearts Of Men: propasaurus: Nobody's going along with Jim Cramer's 440?

Was that a typo?


No, that was his actual prediction.
 
2012-11-05 02:22:11 PM

ThatBozGuy: My August prediction still stands.

Obama wins Electoral and Popular vote.
Electoral final Obama 303 Romney 235
Popular vote Obama 51.8%


you and I seem to be on the high side of the obama PV predictions (I'm at 51.1) but you still only think 303 ev? with a 2+pv advantage, you still don't see NC ending in blue column?

Baseball has too many teams for me to keep up with, but a good election feeds my 'inner stats junkie' for a good long time.
 
2012-11-05 02:22:24 PM

mrshowrules: Gonz: I'm going to take a long shot, for the sake of gambling.
Obama. 342, 49.7
Romney 196, 48.4

In this type of pool, you have a better chance of winning with an outlier.


Exactly. My other mental option was a 3rd Party candidate swinging an EV somehow. I don't think it's likely, but it gets me away from the O-303 logjam.
 
2012-11-05 02:23:13 PM

GardenWeasel: SacriliciousBeerSwiller: [imageshack.us image 640x442]

Electoral: Obama 369, Mitsy 169
Popular: Aw hell, let's say Obama 52.5%, Mitsy 46%, Other 1.5%

Yeah, mofos, I'm calling Arizona and NC for Obama. A lot of people really do not like Mittens...they're just not screeching psychos about it the way the Obama haters are.

I'll take yours and add anti-rape pushes in IN/MO. Even the blue-hairs here in Indiana are pissed.

[i.imgur.com image 625x491]


Maybe it might have an effect in Indiana but not here in MO.

I have a better shot at being "Sexiest Man in the Universe" than Obama winning MO. Don't forget, he didn't even win this state in 2008.

BTW my prediction:

I think Obama will get all the swing states except VA, NC and FL

Obama: 290
Romney: 248
 
2012-11-05 02:24:20 PM
Here's mine:

O - 303
R - 235

O - 50.2%
R - 48.6%
 
2012-11-05 02:24:23 PM
Just FYI, for all you people not posting popular vote predictions, you are pretty much guaranteed not to win. There's almost certainly going to be a tie for the winning EV count. I don't know if anyone cares, just a heads up.
 
2012-11-05 02:25:03 PM
Obama 332 pop 49.8%
Romney 206 pop 49.9%
Third party pop .3%
 
2012-11-05 02:25:36 PM

Uberdeity: Obama 332 pop 49.8%
Romney 206 pop 49.9%
Third party pop .3%


There's no chance in hell Obama wins 332 EVs if he loses the popular vote, IMO.
 
2012-11-05 02:26:10 PM

DamnYankees: Just FYI, for all you people not posting popular vote predictions, you are pretty much guaranteed not to win. There's almost certainly going to be a tie for the winning EV count. I don't know if anyone cares, just a heads up.


Meh, popular vote doesn't matter...

/looking forward to seeing GOP whine about it if they get the popular vote and lose the EC
 
2012-11-05 02:26:12 PM
lh4.googleusercontent.com
 
2012-11-05 02:26:43 PM

Uberdeity: Obama 332 pop 49.8%
Romney 206 pop 49.9%
Third party pop .3%


That would be...remarkable.
 
2012-11-05 02:27:31 PM

thenewmissus: Romney
Alabama
Alaska
.
.
.
Washington
West Virginia
Wyoming


You're going to be sooo pissed off
 
2012-11-05 02:27:32 PM
Add me to the long list of 303-235 predictors. I must be number eleventy-jillion on the list with that total

If I have to pull numbers out of my ass for popular vote totals, I'll go 50.4% Obama - 49.6% Romney, but there isn't much point to that exercise, either. Admit it, we're all just looking at Nate's PV prediction and adjusting by a few tenths, aren't we??
 
2012-11-05 02:27:35 PM
Obama 294
Romney 244
 
2012-11-05 02:27:55 PM
Obama 0 electoral 0% popular
Romney 538,000 electoral $10,000 popular
 
2012-11-05 02:28:15 PM

lennavan: 318 Obama
220 Romney

Link

I also predict Romney wins the popular vote and neither candidate breaks 50%:

Romney - 49.2%
Obama - 48.7%

Romney wins the popular vote due to Sandy hitting more (D) leaning states (and because the lulz would be truly epic, call it payback for 2000).


Was thinking about this myself and thus any mention of the RWers going nuts that Romney should be President by way of the popular vote and there should merit a two-word response:

Al. Gore.
 
2012-11-05 02:28:20 PM

Mrtraveler01: GardenWeasel: SacriliciousBeerSwiller: [imageshack.us image 640x442]

Electoral: Obama 369, Mitsy 169
Popular: Aw hell, let's say Obama 52.5%, Mitsy 46%, Other 1.5%

Yeah, mofos, I'm calling Arizona and NC for Obama. A lot of people really do not like Mittens...they're just not screeching psychos about it the way the Obama haters are.

I'll take yours and add anti-rape pushes in IN/MO. Even the blue-hairs here in Indiana are pissed.

[i.imgur.com image 625x491]

Maybe it might have an effect in Indiana but not here in MO.

I have a better shot at being "Sexiest Man in the Universe" than Obama winning MO. Don't forget, he didn't even win this state in 2008.

BTW my prediction:

I think Obama will get all the swing states except VA, NC and FL

Obama: 290
Romney: 248


Popular vote:

Obama: 50.5%
Romney: 49.5%

Although part of me would like to see Obama lose the popular vote and win the electoral vote just to troll the right a la 2000.
 
2012-11-05 02:28:24 PM

DamnYankees: Just FYI, for all you people not posting popular vote predictions, you are pretty much guaranteed not to win. There's almost certainly going to be a tie for the winning EV count. I don't know if anyone cares, just a heads up.


good point

obama 50.2%
romney 49.5%
 
2012-11-05 02:28:32 PM
297 - Obama
241 - Romney
 
2012-11-05 02:28:54 PM
ONGOING TALLY

Predictions: 101
Predictions of Obama Win: 90%

Median Obama EV: 300
Median Romney EV: 238
Mode Obama EV: 303
Mode Romney EV: 235
Mode as Percent of Total: 19%

Median Obama PV: 50.2
Median Romney PV: 48.6

Max Obama EV Prediction: 379
Max Obama PV Prediction: 52.5

Min Obama EV Prediction: 229
Min Obama PV Prediction: 47

Max Obama PV Spread: 6.5
Max Romney PV Spread: 3
 
2012-11-05 02:28:59 PM
Obama: 236

Romney: 302
 
2012-11-05 02:29:20 PM
my overly optimistic is:
O: 313
R: 225

my realistic is:
O: 286
R: 252

i'm not going to bother with the popular vote.
 
2012-11-05 02:29:58 PM

DamnYankees: The Evil That Lies In The Hearts Of Men: propasaurus: Nobody's going along with Jim Cramer's 440?

Was that a typo?

No, that was his actual prediction.


So I guess we know two things he's bad at predicting.
 
2012-11-05 02:31:02 PM
i.imgur.com
 
2012-11-05 02:31:23 PM

DamnYankees: No, that was his actual prediction.


Nate Silver noted that his model gave that prediction by Kramer an 0.004% chance of being correct.
 
2012-11-05 02:32:03 PM
Obama 303
Romney 235
 
2012-11-05 02:32:08 PM

DamnYankees: RyogaM: Is anyone going to put all these predictions all in one post for easy viewing and posting in the election night threads? Please? Anyone?

I will.


Awesome.
 
2012-11-05 02:32:19 PM

tallguywithglasseson: DamnYankees: The Evil That Lies In The Hearts Of Men: propasaurus: Nobody's going along with Jim Cramer's 440?

Was that a typo?

No, that was his actual prediction.

So I guess we know two things he's bad at predicting.


Make it 3:

Cramer married Karen Backfisch-Olufsen, a trader, in 1988, and divorced in 2009
 
2012-11-05 02:32:36 PM
Roseanne Barr;
538.

/Suck it Zealots.
 
2012-11-05 02:32:39 PM
Obama: 347, 51.5 PV
Romney 191, 47.8 PV
 
DGS [TotalFark]
2012-11-05 02:32:58 PM

Seacop: Romney's got this.

Three statisticals..

1. 30% of Hillary supporters for Romney
2. 1 in 7 undecided
3. Silent Majority

Romney wins. You guys are gonna be sooo pissed off.


Ok, that's a good one. Days gone by.
 
2012-11-05 02:33:11 PM

DamnYankees: I guess I might as well port over all the information:

I'll be keeping track of all this in an excel file and once everything is called I'll give the winner a month of TF for free.


I was in on this when it was first proposed, but somehow missed the real thread. Now I can't find the thread where you initially brought it up.

Anyway, mine was for Nate Silver's 330 prediction minus Ohio's 18 (due to shenanigans there), so Obama 312, Romney 226.

We didn't do popular vote in that thread, but I'm thinking Obama 49.9, Romney 49.6.

And the Ohio shenanigans will be deemed moot and not investigated.
 
2012-11-05 02:33:16 PM
303 Obama/Biden
235 Romney/Ryan
 
2012-11-05 02:33:33 PM

DamnYankees: Uberdeity: Obama 332 pop 49.8%
Romney 206 pop 49.9%
Third party pop .3%

There's no chance in hell Obama wins 332 EVs if he loses the popular vote, IMO.


That is why it is a bet. =) Also, I know that Northern Fla is in the Romney Camp, Southern Fla is in the Obama Camp... I live in Central Fla. We get to decide and I can tell you that for every Romney/Ryan anything I have seen, I am seeing 10-1 for Obama. totally anecdotal but hey .. it is something right?
 
2012-11-05 02:33:36 PM
i159.photobucket.com

Romney may well win VA, but I'm, pretty comfortable with the rest.

Even if he wins VA, it's time for the fat lady to warm up...

i159.photobucket.com
 
2012-11-05 02:34:04 PM

Jackson Herring: [i.imgur.com image 600x515]


Came here for this.
 
2012-11-05 02:34:11 PM
Obama: 281
Romney: 235

Popular vote: 52% to 44.2%
 
2012-11-05 02:34:52 PM
My 303 Obama electoral win prediction has a 1 state give or take scenario, that would not change the outcome of the winner,the two states in that math are:

Virginia is the weakest that I give to Obama at 69% chance of winning. That would leave Obama with a 290 win if he lose the state.

Florida is the weakest state I give to Romney at 55% (this state is statistically a too close to call tossup, but I lean it Romney) That would give Obama a 332 Electoral win if he wins the state.

My final state call for President Obama is 303:
WA,OR,CA,HI,NV,CO,NM,CO,MN,IA,WI,IL,OH,PA,NY,VA,ME,VT,NH,MA,CT,RI,NJ, D E,MD,DC

My final state call for Candidate Romney is 235:
AK,AZ,UT,ID,MT,WY,ND,SD,NE,KS,OK,TX,LA,AR,MO,IN,KY,TN,MS,AL,WV,NC,SC, G A,FL

One slight anomaly is Nebraska district two, which I call for Romney but is also a single Electoral vote change in tossup territory for Obama. But I put the full contingent of NE in Romney's column.
 
2012-11-05 02:36:04 PM
Obama: 294 50.8%
Romney: 244 47.6%
 
2012-11-05 02:36:51 PM
President Obama: 332
Romney: 206
 
2012-11-05 02:37:16 PM

DamnYankees: Just FYI, for all you people not posting popular vote predictions, you are pretty much guaranteed not to win. There's almost certainly going to be a tie for the winning EV count. I don't know if anyone cares, just a heads up.


The headline only asked for the electoral college results, not the popular vote, so that's all I posted.
 
2012-11-05 02:37:51 PM
O 314 - R 224
O takes loses New Hampshire and Florida but gets NC ... why not.
Popular vote: O 49.7 - R 48.8
Senate 54 D+I - 46 R
 
2012-11-05 02:37:52 PM

Jackson Herring: [i.imgur.com image 600x515]


Have you checked out his twitter feed? Trolling the right hard.
 
2012-11-05 02:37:53 PM
Oh, and the popular vote ends up:

President Obama: 50.2%
Romney: 48.6%
 
2012-11-05 02:37:59 PM

timujin: DamnYankees: Just FYI, for all you people not posting popular vote predictions, you are pretty much guaranteed not to win. There's almost certainly going to be a tie for the winning EV count. I don't know if anyone cares, just a heads up.

The headline only asked for the electoral college results, not the popular vote, so that's all I posted.


Ya I know - that annoyed me. I didn't submit this headline, I submitted another one that was made red.
 
2012-11-05 02:38:44 PM
Obama 313 52.16 %pv Romey 224 47.84%pv, 1 "faithless" Romeye elector casting a vote for Ron Pual
 
2012-11-05 02:39:10 PM

YouAreItNoTagBacks: Jackson Herring: [i.imgur.com image 600x515]

Have you checked out his twitter feed? Trolling the right hard.

Link got stupid
 
2012-11-05 02:39:25 PM
The only poll that Nate has that doesn't count Florida as a tie (or the two +1's that cancel each other out) is from Jacksonville. And was taken from the surrounding area. Don't count Fl out just yet.
 
2012-11-05 02:39:33 PM

Uberdeity: DamnYankees: Uberdeity: Obama 332 pop 49.8%
Romney 206 pop 49.9%
Third party pop .3%

There's no chance in hell Obama wins 332 EVs if he loses the popular vote, IMO.

That is why it is a bet. =) Also, I know that Northern Fla is in the Romney Camp, Southern Fla is in the Obama Camp... I live in Central Fla. We get to decide and I can tell you that for every Romney/Ryan anything I have seen, I am seeing 10-1 for Obama. totally anecdotal but hey .. it is something right?


Did you vote early? What were the lines like up there.

/In Palm Beach here
/2.5 hour wait...and that wasn't even the worst
 
2012-11-05 02:40:46 PM
I went on record, here and elsewhere, a long time ago:

Obama 332.
 
2012-11-05 02:40:51 PM
I think I'm still the only one riding my predition. Stay away from it heathens.
 
2012-11-05 02:41:56 PM
O: 278 49.1%
R: 260 48.4%
 
2012-11-05 02:42:00 PM

DamnYankees: Ya I know - that annoyed me. I didn't submit this headline, I submitted another one that was made red.


I bet it had a better headline, too.
 
2012-11-05 02:42:33 PM

CPennypacker: I think I'm still the only one riding my predition. Stay away from it heathens.


You are indeed the only person with 286 for Obama.
 
2012-11-05 02:42:50 PM

DamnYankees: timujin: DamnYankees: Just FYI, for all you people not posting popular vote predictions, you are pretty much guaranteed not to win. There's almost certainly going to be a tie for the winning EV count. I don't know if anyone cares, just a heads up.

The headline only asked for the electoral college results, not the popular vote, so that's all I posted.

Ya I know - that annoyed me. I didn't submit this headline, I submitted another one that was made red.


sphotos-d.ak.fbcdn.net

=)
 
2012-11-05 02:43:04 PM

phritz: O 314 - R 224
O takes loses New Hampshire and Florida but gets NC ... why not.
Popular vote: O 49.7 - R 48.8
Senate 54 D+I - 46 R


I'll say that it would be funny as hell if Obama won VA and NC...but if he were to win those two I think he'd also win FL.
 
2012-11-05 02:43:10 PM

ox45tallboy: DamnYankees: Ya I know - that annoyed me. I didn't submit this headline, I submitted another one that was made red.

I bet it had a better headline, too.


How'd you know?!
 
2012-11-05 02:43:50 PM

FitzShivering: I am basing this on the fact that I think Democrats will not turn out to vote near the prior election cycle's numbers


The early voting turn-out for Liberals has been phenomenal in battle-ground States.

Have a look at this GOP memo Link

It looks like Obama might even take Florida. However, even if it is just a close loss in Florida, Obama is going to run most of the battle-ground States.
 
2012-11-05 02:44:30 PM

DamnYankees: CPennypacker: I think I'm still the only one riding my predition. Stay away from it heathens.

You are indeed the only person with 286 for Obama.


Cmon New Hampshire! Break for RMONEY!
 
2012-11-05 02:44:52 PM
Obama - 303 ev, 49.6 pv
Romney - 235 ev, 48.6 pv
Other - 1.8 pv

So in a nutshell, Obama wins ev and gets a majority of the popular but still comes under 50% with the third party vote. I also expect the right to spend 4 years going but, but, but a majority voted against Obama.
 
2012-11-05 02:44:59 PM

Uberdeity: The only poll that Nate has that doesn't count Florida as a tie (or the two +1's that cancel each other out) is from Jacksonville. And was taken from the surrounding area. Don't count Fl out just yet.


If Obama wins FL, it's over at that point too.. I suspect if he wins VA it's over at that point too... but damn, if he got FL it'd be really a ass whipping...

/not optimistic though, the idiots in my state voted for Rick Scott...
 
2012-11-05 02:45:22 PM

DamnYankees: CPennypacker: I think I'm still the only one riding my predition. Stay away from it heathens.

You are indeed the only person with 286 for Obama.


I have 284 for Obama but for the life of me, I can't figure out the realistic combination of States that will produce that.
 
2012-11-05 02:47:00 PM

mrshowrules: DamnYankees: CPennypacker: I think I'm still the only one riding my predition. Stay away from it heathens.

You are indeed the only person with 286 for Obama.

I have 284 for Obama but for the life of me, I can't figure out the realistic combination of States that will produce that.


Really easy. Romney wins FL, NC, VA and IA (or NV, but IA seems more likely). Obama wins the rest. Pretty plausible.
 
2012-11-05 02:47:19 PM
269-269 - just for the lulz.

Link
 
2012-11-05 02:48:41 PM

mrshowrules: FitzShivering: I am basing this on the fact that I think Democrats will not turn out to vote near the prior election cycle's numbers

The early voting turn-out for Liberals has been phenomenal in battle-ground States.

Have a look at this GOP memo Link

It looks like Obama might even take Florida. However, even if it is just a close loss in Florida, Obama is going to run most of the battle-ground States.


Sure hope so; I'd love to wake up tomorrow AM, click on a morning show and see video of long lines at polling places around the battleground states.

That would make Romney wince.
 
2012-11-05 02:48:54 PM

mrshowrules: FitzShivering: I am basing this on the fact that I think Democrats will not turn out to vote near the prior election cycle's numbers

The early voting turn-out for Liberals has been phenomenal in battle-ground States.

Have a look at this GOP memo Link

It looks like Obama might even take Florida. However, even if it is just a close loss in Florida, Obama is going to run most of the battle-ground States.


I'm having a really hard time reading that image. Dunno if it's my screen. Got a better quality link anywhere?
 
2012-11-05 02:49:03 PM
Obama - 283
Romney - 255
 
2012-11-05 02:50:30 PM

JerseyTim: Whatever Nate Silver is saying.


What JerseyTim said.
 
2012-11-05 02:51:04 PM
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=blIO

I'm predicting 326 to 212 for Obama.
 
2012-11-05 02:54:25 PM
328 51.2
210 48.8
 
2012-11-05 02:54:39 PM
Dear God help us if this is the case....but I have a fear building in me that it will be....

i50.tinypic.com
 
2012-11-05 02:54:51 PM

abb3w: DamnYankees: No, that was his actual prediction.

Nate Silver noted that his model gave that prediction by Kramer an 0.004% chance of being correct.


If Obama wins Texas, Arizona, Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, and Ohio, he has 417. One wonders which of the remaining states Mr. Kramer believes will make up the remaining 23 votes.
 
2012-11-05 02:56:41 PM
On my phone. Bookmarking for later, will post my winning entry tonight
 
2012-11-05 02:57:12 PM

organizmx: JerseyTim: Whatever Nate Silver is saying.

What JerseyTim said.


On the electoral vote, yes. I think third parties are going to get about 2% of the popular vote given how annoyed the general public is with both parties.
 
2012-11-05 02:58:37 PM

qorkfiend: abb3w: DamnYankees: No, that was his actual prediction.

Nate Silver noted that his model gave that prediction by Kramer an 0.004% chance of being correct.

If Obama wins Texas, Arizona, Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, and Ohio, he has 417. One wonders which of the remaining states Mr. Kramer believes will make up the remaining 23 votes.


Here's the most concievable map I could come up with"

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=blMU

In addition to all the battlegrounds, Obama takes AZ, AK, WY, MT, ND, SD, NE, MO, AR, LA, TN and GA.
 
2012-11-05 02:59:11 PM
Obama: 347, 52.1%
Romney: 191, 46.5%
Third Party: 0, 1.4%
 
2012-11-05 03:00:51 PM
here is mine:

i.imgur.com
 
2012-11-05 03:01:38 PM

KellyX: Uberdeity: The only poll that Nate has that doesn't count Florida as a tie (or the two +1's that cancel each other out) is from Jacksonville. And was taken from the surrounding area. Don't count Fl out just yet.

If Obama wins FL, it's over at that point too.. I suspect if he wins VA it's over at that point too... but damn, if he got FL it'd be really a ass whipping...

/not optimistic though, the idiots in my state voted for Rick Scott...


It's over if Obama wins Ohio or Florida or Virginia.

Romney needs to win Ohio and Florida and Virginia and either New Hampshire or Colorado.
 
2012-11-05 03:01:54 PM

DamnYankees: timujin: DamnYankees: Just FYI, for all you people not posting popular vote predictions, you are pretty much guaranteed not to win. There's almost certainly going to be a tie for the winning EV count. I don't know if anyone cares, just a heads up.

The headline only asked for the electoral college results, not the popular vote, so that's all I posted.

Ya I know - that annoyed me. I didn't submit this headline, I submitted another one that was made red.


Yeah, saw that but didn't check the link. It also goes to the same site, though, but I don't see a way to generate an estimate of the popular vote. So it that just a guess? I simply went with the states and went pretty widely Democratic at that, since everyone else is going closer to 50/50. Like someone wrote above, you can't win if you're guessing the same as everyone else.
 
2012-11-05 03:02:43 PM
Oh and pop vote: O: 50.5 R: 48.2
 
2012-11-05 03:02:44 PM

timujin: So it that just a guess?


Yeah, just a guess for tie-breaking sake.
 
2012-11-05 03:03:05 PM
farm9.staticflickr.com
 
2012-11-05 03:03:07 PM
Obama: 303, 51%
Rmoney: 235, 48%
1% for potato
 
2012-11-05 03:03:08 PM

qorkfiend: abb3w: DamnYankees: No, that was his actual prediction.

Nate Silver noted that his model gave that prediction by Kramer an 0.004% chance of being correct.

If Obama wins Texas, Arizona, Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, and Ohio, he has 417. One wonders which of the remaining states Mr. Kramer believes will make up the remaining 23 votes.


Easy

i.imgur.com
 
2012-11-05 03:04:09 PM
O: 303 w/ 49.7%
R: 235 w/ 49.7%

Yea, tied popular vote. Why the hell not?
 
2012-11-05 03:05:12 PM
 
2012-11-05 03:06:08 PM
272 obama
266 romney

florida and ohio go repub.
 
2012-11-05 03:06:12 PM
i396.photobucket.com

Count me in as another Nate Silver believer. Though I do think with the way momentum is going, Obama can still take Florida, though I'm not banking on it.
 
2012-11-05 03:06:49 PM

Carn: Obama: 303, 51%
Rmoney: 235, 48%
1% for potato


I kind of have a weird feeling if the right feels like Romney doesn't have much of a chance that Tea Party people might vote potato instead.
 
2012-11-05 03:07:09 PM
Sorry Also meant to say 277-261
 
2012-11-05 03:07:15 PM
My corollary predictions:

+ Nate Silver and the other math-heads are going be much less accurate this year. The current talk that's trying to discredit Silver and the like will get much stronger, and eventually be shared by both Red and Blue pundits. It'll work, but only partially.

+ There will be much talk, some by very respected voices, about how the polls didn't fully factor in changes in the electoral environment - the money, the voter suppression efforts, the lack of landlines, voters being purposely dishonest to "help" their "hometeam", etc. after the elections. Nate Silver takes the existing data and dumps it into a refined model that is extremely accurate in hindsight. He nails it in 2016.

+ The exit polls in certain parts of the country will be improbably out of whack. So much so that, again, respected voices will at least strongly infer fraud, if not call it out directly. They'll be shouted down, even by people sharing their ideology, as conspiracy theorists.

+ Obama wins anyway, but so narrowly that he's still considered to be an illegitimate President. Four more years of stalemate. Republican wins the WH in 2016.

//I really hope that I'm wrong across the boards here
 
2012-11-05 03:07:22 PM
ONGOING TALLY

Predictions: 131
Predictions of Obama Win: 90%

Median Obama EV: 303
Median Romney EV: 235
Mode Obama EV: 303
Mode Romney EV: 235
Mode as Percent of Total: 21%

Median Obama PV: 50.2
Median Romney PV: 48.6

Max Obama EV Prediction: 379
Max Obama PV Prediction: 52.5

Min Obama EV Prediction: 229
Min Obama PV Prediction: 47

Max Obama PV Spread: 7.8
Max Romney PV Spread: 3
 
2012-11-05 03:07:55 PM

organizmx: [i396.photobucket.com image 850x425]

Count me in as another Nate Silver believer. Though I do think with the way momentum is going, Obama can still take Florida, though I'm not banking on it.


But remember Nate thinks that only has a 20% chance of happening. So it's not favored but it's about the MOST likely to happen.

I really hope Obama takes Florida to shut the door on this thing.
 
2012-11-05 03:09:11 PM
N0bama: 281, 48.2%
Mittens Rmoneybot: 257, 48.4%

hurrrricaine sandy after effects limiting voter turnout in NY, NJ, and CT.
 
2012-11-05 03:09:39 PM

jonnyh: + Obama wins anyway, but so narrowly that he's still considered to be an illegitimate President. Four more years of stalemate. Republican wins the WH in 2016.


Well that's no problem. GOP said he was an illegitimate when he won by a landslide last time.
 
2012-11-05 03:10:19 PM
Link
Michigan could go either way but I bet looters outnumber producers. 

R 51% 321
O 48% 217
 
2012-11-05 03:14:48 PM

Corvus: here is mine:

[i.imgur.com image 820x592]


Mine as well. I also say Obama 50.1, Romney 48.3
 
2012-11-05 03:15:39 PM

GardenWeasel: qorkfiend: abb3w: DamnYankees: No, that was his actual prediction.

Nate Silver noted that his model gave that prediction by Kramer an 0.004% chance of being correct.

If Obama wins Texas, Arizona, Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, and Ohio, he has 417. One wonders which of the remaining states Mr. Kramer believes will make up the remaining 23 votes.

Easy

[i.imgur.com image 618x462]


I would assume that South Carolina goes blue FAR before South Dakota or Montana.
 
2012-11-05 03:15:45 PM
My prognostication:

Link

Romney 257 48.3%
Obama 281 50.2%
 
2012-11-05 03:16:12 PM
I predict George W. Bush will cancel the election and the right-leaning SCOTUS will appoint Skeletor "President for Life".
 
2012-11-05 03:16:29 PM

doyner: Corvus: here is mine:

[i.imgur.com image 820x592]

Mine as well. I also say Obama 50.1, Romney 48.3


doyner: Corvus: here is mine:

[i.imgur.com image 820x592]

Mine as well. I also say Obama 50.1, Romney 48.3


You are the first person to make a PV prediction and no EV prediction.
 
2012-11-05 03:17:02 PM
281 - Obama
256 - Romney
1 - RON PAUL

I'm guessing someone does it just for spite.
 
2012-11-05 03:17:37 PM

captnwolfy: Uberdeity: DamnYankees: Uberdeity: Obama 332 pop 49.8%
Romney 206 pop 49.9%
Third party pop .3%

There's no chance in hell Obama wins 332 EVs if he loses the popular vote, IMO.

That is why it is a bet. =) Also, I know that Northern Fla is in the Romney Camp, Southern Fla is in the Obama Camp... I live in Central Fla. We get to decide and I can tell you that for every Romney/Ryan anything I have seen, I am seeing 10-1 for Obama. totally anecdotal but hey .. it is something right?

Did you vote early? What were the lines like up there.

/In Palm Beach here
/2.5 hour wait...and that wasn't even the worst


Down in Clearwater. I haven't voted yet but my wife already has. Took about 30 mins. I am figuring tomorrow is going to take some time out of my day, but it is all cool. I just want to vote on the amendments... some of those are total shiat.
 
2012-11-05 03:18:25 PM
It's gonna be 332-206. Popular vote 50.6-48.4.
 
2012-11-05 03:18:47 PM
Obama wins 332-206. I believe that would mean Obama only loses Indiana, North Carolina, and Nebraska's 2nd congressional district from his 2008 victory.
 
2012-11-05 03:19:23 PM
OBAMA 281-257 50.3% of vote....and recount demanded in 3 states by GOP.
Expect 2000 mess revisited, further dividing out country.
 
2012-11-05 03:20:24 PM

FitzShivering: mrshowrules: FitzShivering: I am basing this on the fact that I think Democrats will not turn out to vote near the prior election cycle's numbers

The early voting turn-out for Liberals has been phenomenal in battle-ground States.

Have a look at this GOP memo Link

It looks like Obama might even take Florida. However, even if it is just a close loss in Florida, Obama is going to run most of the battle-ground States.

I'm having a really hard time reading that image. Dunno if it's my screen. Got a better quality link anywhere?


this one seems clearer to me:

Link

Plus video of reporter confront GOP office on it

Link
 
2012-11-05 03:23:06 PM
I'm also going with the Nate Silver map: 303 to 235.

Popular vote:

Obama: 49.7%
Romney: 49.4%
 
2012-11-05 03:23:14 PM
Obama: 5 0.8%
Romney: 4 0.6%
Ditka: 529 98.6%
 
2012-11-05 03:23:26 PM

jonnyh: My corollary predictions:

+ Nate Silver and the other math-heads are going be much less accurate this year. The current talk that's trying to discredit Silver and the like will get much stronger, and eventually be shared by both Red and Blue pundits. It'll work, but only partially.

+ There will be much talk, some by very respected voices, about how the polls didn't fully factor in changes in the electoral environment - the money, the voter suppression efforts, the lack of landlines, voters being purposely dishonest to "help" their "hometeam", etc. after the elections. Nate Silver takes the existing data and dumps it into a refined model that is extremely accurate in hindsight. He nails it in 2016.

+ The exit polls in certain parts of the country will be improbably out of whack. So much so that, again, respected voices will at least strongly infer fraud, if not call it out directly. They'll be shouted down, even by people sharing their ideology, as conspiracy theorists.

+ Obama wins anyway, but so narrowly that he's still considered to be an illegitimate President. Four more years of stalemate. Republican wins the WH in 2016.

//I really hope that I'm wrong across the boards here


As another article on the Politics Tab stated, the Republicans will go to war on each other either way. If Obama wins, that process will accelerate rapidly with an eye towards 2016.
 
2012-11-05 03:23:58 PM
Romney: 590.
Obama: negative 37.

Suck it, libs.
 
2012-11-05 03:24:00 PM

Smelly McUgly: GardenWeasel: qorkfiend: abb3w: DamnYankees: No, that was his actual prediction.

Nate Silver noted that his model gave that prediction by Kramer an 0.004% chance of being correct.

If Obama wins Texas, Arizona, Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, and Ohio, he has 417. One wonders which of the remaining states Mr. Kramer believes will make up the remaining 23 votes.

Easy

[i.imgur.com image 618x462]

I would assume that South Carolina goes blue FAR before South Dakota or Montana.


I was just trying to get to Cramer's 440. Leaving all else the same, replacing SD/MT with SC means removing MO, adding KY. (insert joke here)
 
2012-11-05 03:25:07 PM

GardenWeasel: Smelly McUgly: GardenWeasel: qorkfiend: abb3w: DamnYankees: No, that was his actual prediction.

Nate Silver noted that his model gave that prediction by Kramer an 0.004% chance of being correct.

If Obama wins Texas, Arizona, Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, and Ohio, he has 417. One wonders which of the remaining states Mr. Kramer believes will make up the remaining 23 votes.

Easy

[i.imgur.com image 618x462]

I would assume that South Carolina goes blue FAR before South Dakota or Montana.

I was just trying to get to Cramer's 440. Leaving all else the same, replacing SD/MT with SC means removing MO, adding KY. (insert joke here)


*AND* GA
 
2012-11-05 03:27:07 PM
Obama 347 (50.9), Romney 191 (49.2)
 
2012-11-05 03:28:34 PM
Obama 290 51.6%
Romney 248 48.1%
 
2012-11-05 03:29:14 PM

NOT a streetlight: Obama 347 (50.9), Romney 191 (49.2)


You are the first person to predict that, between the two of them, Romney and Obama will get OVER 100% of the vote.
 
2012-11-05 03:30:54 PM
I look forward to the teatards at fark like tenpoundsoffeces get all pissy and stampy when their guy loses.
 
2012-11-05 03:31:11 PM
for those saying Indiana will go blue again... I admit it is a stronger possibility than most people think but indiana votes dem once every 40 years or so and 2008 was probably it. Since 1900 we've supported Wilsons 1st term but not his second, FDR we supported for a record breaking 2 terms but did not support him for his 3rd or 4th term. LBJ got one term from us but that was a sympathy vote for Kennedy being killed.* We supported Obama in 2008. Indiana did NOT support Kennedy in 1960 and that gives us hoosiers the dubious distinction of having supported Nixon THREE times (1960, 1968, 1972)


*Indiana people around my part of it anyway, have a thing about looks. They couldn't be seen voting republican after Kennedy was killed even though they didn't vote for JFK in the first place. Christian hoosiers would not be seen in church in less than their sunday best clothes because it's about being seen getting religion not about actually getting religion. If no one could see hoosiers going to church most of them wouldn't. The Obama stickers on my car are a scandal, not because I support him but because people can see me doing it. It's weird here..
 
2012-11-05 03:31:40 PM

Rwa2play: phritz: O 314 - R 224
O takes loses New Hampshire and Florida but gets NC ... why not.
Popular vote: O 49.7 - R 48.8
Senate 54 D+I - 46 R

I'll say that it would be funny as hell if Obama won VA and NC...but if he were to win those two I think he'd also win FL.


3 Statisticals:
1. Obama's ground game well suited for NC's large, minority-dominated population centers
2. Gotta pick SOME upsets
3. No one else had 314

But yeah, mostly I'm just wishing NC would hurry up and turn blue.
 
2012-11-05 03:32:01 PM

DamnYankees: NOT a streetlight: Obama 347 (50.9), Romney 191 (49.2)

You are the first person to predict that, between the two of them, Romney and Obama will get OVER 100% of the vote.


Hey, it could happen.
 
2012-11-05 03:33:35 PM
www.ivandavidoff.com

Ok, the map is a little outdated. Actual prediction:


O: 294
R: 244
 
2012-11-05 03:35:50 PM
Obama 303 - 49.32%
Romney 235 - 48.85%
 
2012-11-05 03:36:38 PM
Random fact - so far, the median results are 303-235 EV win for Obama, and a 50.2-48.6 win in the PV.

nmrsnr is the only person to make exactly this prediction. Smelly McUgly predicted exactly that PV spread, and 26 people have selected this EV spread.
 
2012-11-05 03:38:26 PM
315 Obama - 223 Romney.

O takes VA, OH, IA, WI, CO, NV, AZ and NE-02.
R takes FL, NC.

Popular Vote 51 O - 47 R - 1.5 J - 0.5 S.
 
2012-11-05 03:38:30 PM

mrshowrules: FitzShivering: mrshowrules: FitzShivering: I am basing this on the fact that I think Democrats will not turn out to vote near the prior election cycle's numbers

The early voting turn-out for Liberals has been phenomenal in battle-ground States.

Have a look at this GOP memo Link

It looks like Obama might even take Florida. However, even if it is just a close loss in Florida, Obama is going to run most of the battle-ground States.

I'm having a really hard time reading that image. Dunno if it's my screen. Got a better quality link anywhere?

this one seems clearer to me:

Link

Plus video of reporter confront GOP office on it

Link


Nice; welp, not counting my chickens yet. If Election Day voting turns out strongly for the Dems, Obama takes the state no matter what Rick Scott and his hoods do.
 
2012-11-05 03:39:44 PM

doyner: Corvus: here is mine:

[i.imgur.com image 820x592]

Mine as well. I also say Obama 50.1, Romney 48.3


That's a mandate!
 
2012-11-05 03:41:08 PM
Nobody here thinks Randall Terry will get a split of Nebraska's EV? Have you not seen his influential ads?
 
2012-11-05 03:41:45 PM
Here's my prediction.

Romney 49.8, Obama 47.6
Romney 285, Obama 253

Romney takes McCain 08 states + NH, IN, NC, VA, OH, IA, and CO.

Electoral College map
 
2012-11-05 03:43:01 PM
This is not what I want to happen. If I get a month of TF off this, I am going to be ashamed.

Link

EVs: Romney 285, Obama 253.
Popular Vote: Romney 50.1, Obama 49.0.
 
2012-11-05 03:43:46 PM

WombatControl: Here's my prediction.

Romney 49.8, Obama 47.6
Romney 285, Obama 253

Romney takes McCain 08 states + NH, IN, NC, VA, OH, IA, and CO.

Electoral College map


In all sincerity, thanks for putting up your good faith prediction. We mock the shiat out of you here, but you hang in there. We'll see who ends up right!
 
2012-11-05 03:43:46 PM

WombatControl: Here's my prediction.

Romney 49.8, Obama 47.6
Romney 285, Obama 253

Romney takes McCain 08 states + NH, IN, NC, VA, OH, IA, and CO.

Electoral College map


Awesome. Screenshotted for tomorrow.
 
2012-11-05 03:44:11 PM

Corvus: Carn: Obama: 303, 51%
Rmoney: 235, 48%
1% for potato

I kind of have a weird feeling if the right feels like Romney doesn't have much of a chance that Tea Party people might vote potato instead.


There's gonna be some Gary Johnson votes, that's for sure. I've been trying to convince my friends who don't vote to go vote anyway and if they don't like either guy then write in their own name or Mickey Mouse or whatever. The more people who did that would send a message.

/gotta participate if you want to complain. That's my rule.
 
2012-11-05 03:45:26 PM

WombatControl: Here's my prediction.

Romney 49.8, Obama 47.6
Romney 285, Obama 253

Romney takes McCain 08 states + NH, IN, NC, VA, OH, IA, and CO.

Electoral College map


static5.businessinsider.com

Mayonnaise-Americans have spoken.
 
2012-11-05 03:45:39 PM

coeyagi: WombatControl: Here's my prediction.

Romney 49.8, Obama 47.6
Romney 285, Obama 253

Romney takes McCain 08 states + NH, IN, NC, VA, OH, IA, and CO.

Electoral College map

Awesome. Screenshotted for tomorrow.


Your optimism is inspiring.

About it ending tomorrow, that is.
 
2012-11-05 03:47:01 PM

maniacbastard: I look forward to the teatards at fark like tenpoundsoffeces get all pissy and stampy when their guy loses.


Some of the usual suspects took a couple days off from Fark after Rober's SCOTUS decision on Obamacare.
 
2012-11-05 03:48:03 PM

WombatControl: Here's my prediction.

Romney 49.8, Obama 47.6
Romney 285, Obama 253

Romney takes McCain 08 states + NH, IN, NC, VA, OH, IA, and CO.

Electoral College map

 

♪♫ Don't stop, belieeeeevin...♫♪
 
2012-11-05 03:48:50 PM

ivan: coeyagi: WombatControl: Here's my prediction.

Romney 49.8, Obama 47.6
Romney 285, Obama 253

Romney takes McCain 08 states + NH, IN, NC, VA, OH, IA, and CO.

Electoral College map

Awesome. Screenshotted for tomorrow.

Your optimism is inspiring.

About it ending tomorrow, that is.


Well, I am only going to post it tomorrow. Butthurt-Americans can whine about ACORN, PECAN, CASHEW, WALNUT and ALMOND all they want after that.

And the liberal media of course.
 
2012-11-05 03:49:33 PM

mrshowrules: maniacbastard: I look forward to the teatards at fark like tenpoundsoffeces get all pissy and stampy when their guy loses.

Some of the usual suspects took a couple days off from Fark after Rober's SCOTUS decision on Obamacare.


Guessing they took their frustrations in Freeperland.
 
2012-11-05 03:50:18 PM

WombatControl: Here's my prediction.

Romney 49.8, Obama 47.6
Romney 285, Obama 253

Romney takes McCain 08 states + NH, IN, NC, VA, OH, IA, and CO.

Electoral College map


You just take the next few days easy and realize that it is a just an election and world moves on. The TV and Fark may not be your happy place for a few weeks.
 
2012-11-05 03:53:32 PM
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bmgA

Obama 290 49.8%
Romney 248 49.1%
 
2012-11-05 03:53:48 PM
I'll jump on the 303-235 Obama over Romney bandwagon.

50.5% Obama to 48.7% Romney
 
2012-11-05 03:54:41 PM
303 235 50.8 48.9

Throwing my hat into the one month of free TF pool. I've got Obama winning it 281-257
 
2012-11-05 03:55:04 PM
i.imgur.com

PV

O: 49.9
R: 48.0

And we won't know until next Wednesday.
 
2012-11-05 03:58:19 PM
Obama 290 49.2%
Romney 238 48.4%
 
2012-11-05 03:58:31 PM
Romney-285
Obama- 253

Romney will take Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin and Colorado
 
2012-11-05 03:59:31 PM
303 Obama, with Romney taking Florida.
 
2012-11-05 04:02:37 PM
It would be amusing to see Obama lose Ohio due to the shenanigans there but win NH and VA and make it a moot point. Ah the wailing a gnashing of teeth.
 
2012-11-05 04:03:21 PM
Obama 306 Romney 232
 
2012-11-05 04:03:39 PM
Obama: 286
Romney: 252

/will suffer alcohol poisoning if Romney wins
//may need to dust off tin-foil hat from '04
 
2012-11-05 04:05:04 PM

Carn: Corvus: Carn: Obama: 303, 51%
Rmoney: 235, 48%
1% for potato

I kind of have a weird feeling if the right feels like Romney doesn't have much of a chance that Tea Party people might vote potato instead.

There's gonna be some Gary Johnson votes, that's for sure. I've been trying to convince my friends who don't vote to go vote anyway and if they don't like either guy then write in their own name or Mickey Mouse or whatever. The more people who did that would send a message.

/gotta participate if you want to complain. That's my rule.


That will be my vote tomorrow morning. I am somewhat (though not completely) sympathetic to the idea that voting for a third party is just hurting one or another candidate, but given I actually prefer Gary Johnson over Obama and Romney at this point, and since my vote is completely and utterly meaningless given my state will go Romney, I'd like to at least up the third party vote a bit in the probably naive hope that one day we bust out of this Republican/Democrat crap.
 
2012-11-05 04:06:36 PM

Lord Dimwit: It would be amusing to see Obama lose Ohio due to the shenanigans there but win NH and VA and make it a moot point. Ah the wailing a gnashing of teeth.


Obama has 60 ways to win without Ohio and Florida.
 
2012-11-05 04:07:12 PM

coeyagi: Mayonnaise-Americans have spoken.


I guffaw'd.
 
2012-11-05 04:08:17 PM

bullwrinkle: Romney-285
Obama- 253

Romney will take Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin and Colorado


LOL WUT?
 
2012-11-05 04:08:52 PM
Obama declares an end to the republic and ushers in the American Empire.

There is no election.
 
2012-11-05 04:10:13 PM

Mrtraveler01: bullwrinkle: Romney-285
Obama- 253

Romney will take Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin and Colorado

LOL WUT?


Especially after all the crap that's happened with Walker? Really? Wisconsin would riot in a big way.
 
2012-11-05 04:11:05 PM
Current histogram of predictions:

img.ctrlv.in
 
2012-11-05 04:11:26 PM
I'm going

Obama - 275 49.8
Rmoney- 263 50.2

For the lulz.
 
2012-11-05 04:12:04 PM
O- 332 50.3
R- 206 49.0
 
2012-11-05 04:16:45 PM
I don't believe these numbers, but I don't want to be the 20th person going with 303 or 548 numbers

O: 294
R: 244

Popular vote %49.4 to %49.4 tie to within a tenth.
 
2012-11-05 04:16:52 PM

DamnYankees: Current histogram of predictions:

[img.ctrlv.in image 850x485]


Huh, whaddayaknow... a bell curve. That is beautiful. And my positive outlier is exactly matched by a negative.
 
2012-11-05 04:17:36 PM
O - 303 50.6
R - 235 48.8
 
2012-11-05 04:18:15 PM
I'm estimating 292 Obama, 246 Romney.

54.3% Obama to 45.7 Rmoney.
 
2012-11-05 04:18:48 PM

DamnYankees: Current histogram of predictions:

[img.ctrlv.in image 850x485]


This is the official Fark prediction. You should post it on a real blog somewhere on the intertubes for posterity.
 
2012-11-05 04:20:10 PM

GardenWeasel: DamnYankees: Current histogram of predictions:

[img.ctrlv.in image 850x485]

Huh, whaddayaknow... a bell curve. That is beautiful. And my positive outlier is exactly matched by a negative.


This one is more accurate, since it more finely splits up the histogram. That previous one was lumping everything into groups of 5:

img.ctrlv.in
 
2012-11-05 04:20:15 PM
Obama wins 332-206. Carries Florida. Recount problems in Ohio.
 
2012-11-05 04:21:16 PM

thornhill: I'm also going with the Nate Silver map: 303 to 235.

Popular vote:

Obama: 49.7%
Romney: 49.4%


That 303 is an average based on many outcomes. Not what a likely or even a possible outcome is.
 
2012-11-05 04:21:36 PM
As much as I hate to say it, here's my prediction for tomorrow:

Gaius Baltar 307
Laura Roslin 231
 
2012-11-05 04:22:10 PM

DamnYankees: Current histogram of predictions:

[img.ctrlv.in image 850x485]


Nice.
 
2012-11-05 04:23:05 PM
Or 314 if Obama carries Florida and Husted legitimately steals Ohio by tampering with the tabulator machine software.
 
2012-11-05 04:23:15 PM

aedude01: As much as I hate to say it, here's my prediction for tomorrow:

Gaius Baltar 307
Laura Roslin 231


Baltar gets bum rap, he was very pragmatic. Hey are you not going to do what someone tells you to do when they have a gun to your head?
 
2012-11-05 04:23:28 PM

Corvus: That 303 is an average based on many outcomes. Not what a likely or even a possible outcome is.


303 is not an average - it's actually the most likely outcomes. That's the result if Obama wins all the battlegrounds other than FL and NC. That's why you're seeing these clusters:

332 - Romney wins NC
303 - Romney wins NC and FL
290 - Romney wins NC, FL and VA
 
2012-11-05 04:24:12 PM
Obama 302, Mittens 236.....
Obama 51.3, Mittens 48.5

That is all
 
2012-11-05 04:25:42 PM
PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls
Y'all we have 2016 primary portions for our Florida, Iowa, and New Hampshire polls coming later in the week :)



NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
 
2012-11-05 04:27:32 PM

DamnYankees: Corvus: That 303 is an average based on many outcomes. Not what a likely or even a possible outcome is.

303 is not an average - it's actually the most likely outcomes. That's the result if Obama wins all the battlegrounds other than FL and NC. That's why you're seeing these clusters:

332 - Romney wins NC
303 - Romney wins NC and FL
290 - Romney wins NC, FL and VA


Oh sorry I meant the 307.2 vs. 230.8

But 330 is more likely than 303 according to silver and his chart.
 
2012-11-05 04:27:35 PM
Obama 272
Romney 266

Romney takes Virginia and Ohio, loses Colorado. Book it, done.
 
2012-11-05 04:27:41 PM

DamnYankees: PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls
Y'all we have 2016 primary portions for our Florida, Iowa, and New Hampshire polls coming later in the week :)


NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!


PPP:

motores.com.py
 
2012-11-05 04:27:57 PM
O - 303
R - 235

O - 50.1
R - 48.1
"Rosanne Barr and G. Johnson, et al" - 1.8
 
2012-11-05 04:29:03 PM
Here's my guess...

Obama 299 EVs
Romney 239 EVs

Popular vote
Obama 50.2%
Romney 48.6%
 
2012-11-05 04:29:44 PM

DamnYankees: PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls
Y'all we have 2016 primary portions for our Florida, Iowa, and New Hampshire polls coming later in the week :)


NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

 
2012-11-05 04:30:09 PM

BKITU: DamnYankees: PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls
Y'all we have 2016 primary portions for our Florida, Iowa, and New Hampshire polls coming later in the week :)


NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

PPP:

[motores.com.py image 535x356]


The smiley face just makes the troll that much better.
 
2012-11-05 04:31:28 PM

DamnYankees: PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls
Y'all we have 2016 primary portions for our Florida, Iowa, and New Hampshire polls coming later in the week :)


NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!


fashionablygeek.com
 
2012-11-05 04:35:10 PM

DamnYankees: doyner: Corvus: here is mine:

[i.imgur.com image 820x592]

Mine as well. I also say Obama 50.1, Romney 48.3

doyner: Corvus: here is mine:

[i.imgur.com image 820x592]

Mine as well. I also say Obama 50.1, Romney 48.3

You are the first person to make a PV prediction and no EV prediction.


Uuuuum, no. I was saying my EV prediction was the same as Corvus'.
 
2012-11-05 04:36:16 PM

Corvus: thornhill: I'm also going with the Nate Silver map: 303 to 235.

Popular vote:

Obama: 49.7%
Romney: 49.4%

That 303 is an average based on many outcomes. Not what a likely or even a possible outcome is.


Not sure if you're trolling or not.

303 is the total EV of all the states Silver forecasts Obama having a 50% or greater probability of winning.
 
2012-11-05 04:36:46 PM
Ah, what the heck.

Obama: 293
Romney: 245
 
2012-11-05 04:36:51 PM

doyner: Uuuuum, no. I was saying my EV prediction was the same as Corvus'.


Ah ok. Didn't get that. Considering your prediction entered.
 
2012-11-05 04:37:31 PM
"But I wouldn't be surprised if Nate changes his predictions at the very last minute so they almost echo mine, assuming he wants to be accurate rather than try to predict Obama winning."

- Dean Chambers from UnSkewedPolls
 
2012-11-05 04:39:04 PM

NateGrey: "But I wouldn't be surprised if Nate changes his predictions at the very last minute so they almost echo mine, assuming he wants to be accurate rather than try to predict Obama winning."

- Dean Chambers from UnSkewedPolls


He also posted today that his model has Romney winning the white vote 66-33.

Think about how insane that is.
 
2012-11-05 04:41:17 PM

Pappas: shiat, did the math wrong.

EV
Obama: 303
Romney: 235

Popular
Obama: 48.5
Romney: 47.6%
Other: 3.9%


Beat me to it
Fartbongo: 303
RMoney: 235


Not going to stick my neck out on the popular vote due to a variety of shenanigans by people who won't be mentioned.
 
2012-11-05 04:42:22 PM

thornhill: Corvus: thornhill: I'm also going with the Nate Silver map: 303 to 235.

Popular vote:

Obama: 49.7%
Romney: 49.4%

That 303 is an average based on many outcomes. Not what a likely or even a possible outcome is.

Not sure if you're trolling or not.

303 is the total EV of all the states Silver forecasts Obama having a 50% or greater probability of winning.


I believe 330 is.
 
2012-11-05 04:42:52 PM
I'm guessing I'm not the first one to say this but that, "Stay up to date with Michelle Bachmann," ad made me think they were offering me a chance to *win* a date with Michelle Bachmann. I was wondering if she had finally figured out things at home...
 
2012-11-05 04:43:13 PM
Fine, 332-206, with all the usual suspects except Obama takes Colorado, Virginia, and Florida. Popular vote 50.6%-48.5%.

I don't really think Obama will take Florida, but for some reason, Nate Silver has that as the most likely single combination.
 
2012-11-05 04:43:22 PM

Corvus: I believe 330 is.


I don't see how 330 is possible. Do you mean 332?
 
2012-11-05 04:43:26 PM
2016 544 blog predictions
Biden/Clinton 320
Christie/Rice 224
Guam and Puerto Rico additions, TX,NC goes BLUE, OR goes RED
 
2012-11-05 04:43:47 PM

aedude01: As much as I hate to say it, here's my prediction for tomorrow:

Gaius Baltar 307
Laura Roslin 231


If you think about Gaius Baltar and Mitt Romney are a lot a like.
 
2012-11-05 04:44:24 PM
O - 310
R - 224

O - 50.9
R - 48.2

/Bonus: O loses Ohio, but takes FL and Va
 
2012-11-05 04:44:27 PM

Corvus: thornhill: Corvus: thornhill: I'm also going with the Nate Silver map: 303 to 235.

Popular vote:

Obama: 49.7%
Romney: 49.4%

That 303 is an average based on many outcomes. Not what a likely or even a possible outcome is.

Not sure if you're trolling or not.

303 is the total EV of all the states Silver forecasts Obama having a 50% or greater probability of winning.

I believe 330 is.


330 has been the highest probability outcome for awhile, @ 13-16%
 
2012-11-05 04:45:10 PM

neritz: O - 310
R - 224

O - 50.9
R - 48.2

/Bonus: O loses Ohio, but takes FL and Va


That doesn't add up to 538.
 
2012-11-05 04:46:35 PM

neritz: O - 310
R - 224

O - 50.9
R - 48.2

/Bonus: O loses Ohio, but takes FL and Va


shiat, i forgot NH.
O - 310
R - 228
 
2012-11-05 04:46:41 PM

GardenWeasel: Corvus: thornhill: Corvus: thornhill: I'm also going with the Nate Silver map: 303 to 235.

Popular vote:

Obama: 49.7%
Romney: 49.4%

That 303 is an average based on many outcomes. Not what a likely or even a possible outcome is.

Not sure if you're trolling or not.

303 is the total EV of all the states Silver forecasts Obama having a 50% or greater probability of winning.

I believe 330 is.

330 has been the highest probability outcome for awhile, @ 13-16%


i.imgur.com
 
2012-11-05 04:47:12 PM
Obama 295- 49.6
Romney 243 - 49.6
 
2012-11-05 04:47:18 PM

DamnYankees: Corvus: I believe 330 is.

I don't see how 330 is possible. Do you mean 332?


AM I looking at this wrong?

i.imgur.com

It looks like to me around 330 has the highest probability of all outcomes. 303 is about the 2nd highest.
 
2012-11-05 04:47:34 PM

ThatBozGuy: 2016 544 blog predictions
Biden/Clinton 320
Christie/Rice 224
Guam and Puerto Rico additions, TX,NC goes BLUE, OR goes RED


if TX goes blue, it's going to be hard to get a Republican into office for a long long time.
 
2012-11-05 04:48:32 PM

Corvus: thornhill: Corvus: thornhill: I'm also going with the Nate Silver map: 303 to 235.

Popular vote:

Obama: 49.7%
Romney: 49.4%

That 303 is an average based on many outcomes. Not what a likely or even a possible outcome is.

Not sure if you're trolling or not.

303 is the total EV of all the states Silver forecasts Obama having a 50% or greater probability of winning.

I believe 330 is.


You believe wrong.
 
2012-11-05 04:48:33 PM

Corvus: It looks like to me around 330 has the highest probability of all outcomes. 303 is about the 2nd highest.


All I'm saying is its 332, not 330. Florida has 29 votes, so the jump from 303 would be 332.
 
2012-11-05 04:49:06 PM

DamnYankees: Corvus: It looks like to me around 330 has the highest probability of all outcomes. 303 is about the 2nd highest.

All I'm saying is its 332, not 330. Florida has 29 votes, so the jump from 303 would be 332.


Ok 332 then.
 
2012-11-05 04:49:21 PM

Majick Thise: [www.macmeisters.com image 800x552]


They've gerrymandered Nebraska since 2008 to prevent that from happening again.
 
2012-11-05 04:49:28 PM
A second prediction, which I like to call "Oh please god no:"
25.media.tumblr.com
O266-R254, with a recount in Ohio that by law cannot be completed until provisional ballots can be counted, which will take weeks.
 
2012-11-05 04:49:41 PM

DamnYankees: Corvus: It looks like to me around 330 has the highest probability of all outcomes. 303 is about the 2nd highest.

All I'm saying is its 332, not 330. Florida has 29 votes, so the jump from 303 would be 332.


It's still "more likely" than 303 then.
 
2012-11-05 04:51:12 PM

Corvus: DamnYankees: Corvus: It looks like to me around 330 has the highest probability of all outcomes. 303 is about the 2nd highest.

All I'm saying is its 332, not 330. Florida has 29 votes, so the jump from 303 would be 332.

It's still "more likely" than 303 then.


According to Silver, yes.Which is weird since he has Romney favored in FL.
 
2012-11-05 04:51:39 PM
sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net

Just a guess...
 
2012-11-05 04:52:05 PM

DamnYankees: Current histogram of predictions:


HEY! My prediction is not on there. I think it was 413 to seven or something stupid like that.

Nor the Ron Paul one either.

RON PAUL!!!

DEVOLUTION!!
 
2012-11-05 04:52:49 PM
Obama 290 49.5%
Romney 248 48.2%
 
2012-11-05 04:52:58 PM

Corvus: DamnYankees: Corvus: It looks like to me around 330 has the highest probability of all outcomes. 303 is about the 2nd highest.

All I'm saying is its 332, not 330. Florida has 29 votes, so the jump from 303 would be 332.

It's still "more likely" than 303 then.


I put "more likely in quotes" because it's not that likely to happen it's just the most likely possibility.

Some idiot will be on here tomorrow trying to say Nate was wrong because the "most likely" out come didn't happen even though it had less than a 20% chance of happening.
 
2012-11-05 04:53:40 PM

ManateeGag: ThatBozGuy: 2016 544 blog predictions
Biden/Clinton 320
Christie/Rice 224
Guam and Puerto Rico additions, TX,NC goes BLUE, OR goes RED

if TX goes blue, it's going to be hard to get a Republican into office for a long long time.


Almost all of the Republican national redistricting of the last 4 years has been based on TX going blue in the next 6 years, Its the Silicon overtaking the Oil, in places like Austin and the Blue latino conversion rate that will make flip.
 
2012-11-05 04:53:51 PM

DamnYankees: Corvus: DamnYankees: Corvus: It looks like to me around 330 has the highest probability of all outcomes. 303 is about the 2nd highest.

All I'm saying is its 332, not 330. Florida has 29 votes, so the jump from 303 would be 332.

It's still "more likely" than 303 then.

According to Silver, yes.Which is weird since he has Romney favored in FL.


Right but it might have gain percentages just because multiple scenarios can give the same totals.
 
2012-11-05 04:53:54 PM

Pixiest: [sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net image 850x710]

Just a guess...


This is your brain on drugs...
 
2012-11-05 04:54:12 PM

DamnYankees: Corvus: DamnYankees: Corvus: It looks like to me around 330 has the highest probability of all outcomes. 303 is about the 2nd highest.

All I'm saying is its 332, not 330. Florida has 29 votes, so the jump from 303 would be 332.

It's still "more likely" than 303 then.

According to Silver, yes.Which is weird since he has Romney favored in FL.


Well, Nate *did* get 49/50 right the last Presidential Election. Considering what we've already read on this thread...he could get FL wrong.
 
2012-11-05 04:54:29 PM
The trouble with Electoral College
 
2012-11-05 04:55:21 PM
O 332/52.0
R 206/47.2
0.8 of pv to random third party
 
2012-11-05 04:56:46 PM

DamnYankees: doyner: Uuuuum, no. I was saying my EV prediction was the same as Corvus'.

Ah ok. Didn't get that. Considering your prediction entered.


You're maintaining the official file?
 
2012-11-05 04:57:25 PM

doyner: DamnYankees: doyner: Uuuuum, no. I was saying my EV prediction was the same as Corvus'.

Ah ok. Didn't get that. Considering your prediction entered.

You're maintaining the official file?


Yup.
 
2012-11-05 04:58:15 PM

ALC59: The trouble with Electoral College


and the good thing about electoral college:

A) The storm in New Jersey and New York isn't going to fark the entire vote count for the rest of the nation.
B) One state suppressing the vote limits the amount of damage done to mostly that state and governors of one state can't just try to suppress the entire vote of their state if it is mostly of the other party.
C) Laws for every state are different so that would mean you could be 1 national vote in one state while not being a national vote in another state because everyone had different rules.
 
2012-11-05 04:59:58 PM
Difference from last year: Obama - IN and NC, otherwise unchanged.
 
2012-11-05 05:02:36 PM
Just remember if we didn't have the Electoral College right now Democrats would be biatching for a delay in the elections in NY and NJ and Republicans would be trying to stop it. Why they don't care now is that it's a statewide election not national so the outcome is going to be the same.
 
2012-11-05 05:04:35 PM

Corvus: Just remember if we didn't have the Electoral College right now Democrats would be biatching for a delay in the elections in NY and NJ and Republicans would be trying to stop it. Why they don't care now is that it's a statewide election not national so the outcome is going to be the same.


Doubt it; don't think the delay either way was going to stop NY and NJ turning blue. Now were the PV in effect and not the EC, you'd have a point.
 
2012-11-05 05:06:09 PM

Rwa2play: Corvus: Just remember if we didn't have the Electoral College right now Democrats would be biatching for a delay in the elections in NY and NJ and Republicans would be trying to stop it. Why they don't care now is that it's a statewide election not national so the outcome is going to be the same.

Doubt it; don't think the delay either way was going to stop NY and NJ turning blue. Now were the PV in effect and not the EC, you'd have a point.


Right. that is exactly the point I am making. If it was PV then we would be having a battle on election dates in those states.
 
2012-11-05 05:06:21 PM
what i would like to see happen:
link
 
2012-11-05 05:07:09 PM

Corvus: thornhill: I'm also going with the Nate Silver map: 303 to 235.

Popular vote:

Obama: 49.7%
Romney: 49.4%

That 303 is an average based on many outcomes. Not what a likely or even a possible outcome is.


303 EV for Obama is actually a highly plausible, easily obtained outcome: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bmSa
 
2012-11-05 05:07:50 PM

DamnYankees: doyner: DamnYankees: doyner: Uuuuum, no. I was saying my EV prediction was the same as Corvus'.

Ah ok. Didn't get that. Considering your prediction entered.

You're maintaining the official file?

Yup.


Ok. Like before--official prediction:
i50.tinypic.com
 
2012-11-05 05:08:50 PM

soupafi: what i would like to see happen:
link


Some men just want to watch the world burn.
 
2012-11-05 05:13:03 PM

qorkfiend: 303 EV for Obama is actually a highly plausible, easily obtained outcome: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bmSa


Yes it was even the prediction I made earlier. I already point out I thought it was referring to the other value on the 538 site.
 
2012-11-05 05:14:10 PM

soupafi: what i would like to see happen:
link


Why?
 
2012-11-05 05:14:47 PM

GardenWeasel: soupafi: what i would like to see happen:
link

Why?


Some men just want to watch the world burn.
 
2012-11-05 05:16:10 PM

DamnYankees: GardenWeasel: soupafi: what i would like to see happen:
link

Why?

Some men just want to watch the world burn.


Or he wants Gary Johnson to have a better than zero chance of winning via the House vote.
 
2012-11-05 05:17:28 PM

phritz: A second prediction, which I like to call "Oh please god no:"
[25.media.tumblr.com image 500x354]
O266-R254, with a recount in Ohio that by law cannot be completed until provisional ballots can be counted, which will take weeks.


Obama isn't losing Nevada while taking Colorado. And if Nevada is gone then that means Ohio would be looooooooooooooooong gone.
 
2012-11-05 05:17:50 PM

GardenWeasel: soupafi: what i would like to see happen:
link

Why?


Because President Romney and Vice President Biden would bring teh lols!
 
2012-11-05 05:18:28 PM

GardenWeasel: DamnYankees: GardenWeasel: soupafi: what i would like to see happen:
link

Why?

Some men just want to watch the world burn.

Or he wants Gary Johnson to have a better than zero chance of winning via the House vote.


Not. Gonna. Happen. The House would vote for Obama before it rewards someone from going outside of the two-party oligarchy.
 
2012-11-05 05:32:59 PM

Vodka Zombie: Obama: 1
Romney: 1

Why yes. I am that annoying dick on The Price is Right who says everything is a buck.


That only works if the rules state "without going over."
 
2012-11-05 05:38:33 PM

NateGrey: "But I wouldn't be surprised if Nate changes his predictions at the very last minute so they almost echo mine, assuming he wants to be accurate rather than try to predict Obama winning."

- Dean Chambers from UnSkewedPolls


This guy is a walking shuffling, talking embodiment of the Dunning-Kruger Effect.
 
2012-11-05 05:39:20 PM

DamnYankees: PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls
Y'all we have 2016 primary portions for our Florida, Iowa, and New Hampshire polls coming later in the week :)


NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!


i159.photobucket.com
 
2012-11-05 05:39:32 PM
The election apparatuses in Wisconsin and Ohio are controlled by crooks. So there will be "shocking Republican upsets" in those two states. The rest will look like Nate Silver's map. So we're talking 303-28 = 275 for Obama. The popular vote total will be unpredictably screwed up by corrupted vote counts in Wisconsin and Ohio.
 
2012-11-05 05:42:07 PM
Looks like we've slowed down a bit. Right now we're at 175 predictions. I'll keep open until 8 AM tomorrow.
 
2012-11-05 05:45:47 PM
i.imgur.com
 
2012-11-05 05:49:18 PM
POTUS 303 to 235
 
2012-11-05 05:55:04 PM

Corvus: DamnYankees: Corvus: I believe 330 is.

I don't see how 330 is possible. Do you mean 332?

AM I looking at this wrong?

[i.imgur.com image 373x251]

It looks like to me around 330 has the highest probability of all outcomes. 303 is about the 2nd highest.


It looks like 330 but it is 332. 303+29 for Florida. Note the parallel 333 for the Omaha probability.
 
2012-11-05 05:59:33 PM

Waxing_Chewbacca: POTUS 303 to 235


Oh... and pop vote to the president at 50.7%
 
2012-11-05 06:03:25 PM

DamnYankees: timujin: So it that just a guess?

Yeah, just a guess for tie-breaking sake.


ah, well, I doubt I have much to worry about there, I can't imagine anyone else has such stupid numbers...

*quick ctrl-f*

Oops, sorry Harry.

Um... so, to continue the crazy, 56% Obama, 42% Romney

/and the other 2% for Timujin, who's gonna show the Republicans what real rape and pillaging is all about
 
2012-11-05 06:05:37 PM
Obama - 332
Romney - 206

The Metrosexul Kenyan Crypto-Islamic Usurper takes all of the swing states except NC.

Popular vote:

Obama - 51.1
Romney - 48.6
 
2012-11-05 06:07:41 PM

Clowns are a Ten: phritz: A second prediction, which I like to call "Oh please god no:"
[25.media.tumblr.com image 500x354]
O266-R254, with a recount in Ohio that by law cannot be completed until provisional ballots can be counted, which will take weeks.

Obama isn't losing Nevada while taking Colorado. And if Nevada is gone then that means Ohio would be looooooooooooooooong gone.


Whoops, right, should have CO red and NV blue. I stand by the "Oh god no" part, though.
 
2012-11-05 06:08:31 PM
put me in the 332 EVs for Obama camp. i guess i'll go with 50.1% to 48.6%, Obama wins popular vote, 1.5% to third parties.
 
2012-11-05 06:08:57 PM
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bnqY

Obama - 50.2%
Romney - 49.7%
 
2012-11-05 06:09:00 PM
Even after looking at other (non-538) maps 303 to 235 sounds the most likely.
 
2012-11-05 06:09:16 PM

Seacop: Romney's got this.

Three statisticals..

1. 30% of Hillary supporters for Romney
2. 1 in 7 undecided
3. Silent Majority

Romney wins. You guys are gonna be sooo pissed off.



I think they both suck and we are doomed regardless of who wins tomorrow.

But, if you are correct, the butthurt and wailing and gnashing of teeth in here will be epic. We will need popcorn in bulk.
 
2012-11-05 06:10:42 PM
E.C. 313 to O
PV 51.3 to O
 
2012-11-05 06:11:17 PM
http://www.electionprojection.com/2012elections/president12.php
http://electoral-vote.com/
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

all have 303/235 as one of the most likely outcome and they even use slightly different methodologies.
 
2012-11-05 06:14:13 PM

Corvus: http://www.electionprojection.com/2012elections/president12.php
http://electoral-vote.com/
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

all have 303/235 as one of the most likely outcome and they even use slightly different methodologies.


So does Real Clear Politics when you put in the No Toss Ups.
 
2012-11-05 06:15:23 PM

Seacop: Romney's got this.

Three statisticals..

1. 30% of Hillary supporters for Romney

<gary_coleman.jpg>
2. 1 in 7 undecided
Anyone who is still undecided is unlikely to have the brainpower to find their local polling station
3. Silent Majority
The "silent majority" are the same 37% or so who don't bother voting.

Romney wins. You guys are gonna be sooo pissed off.
 
2012-11-05 06:15:53 PM

soupafi: what i would like to see happen:
link


The real possibility we won't even be able to declare a winner tomorrow is bad enough. You want a tie and the disgusting media orgy and whining from both sides that would cause?

You own stock in a media conglomerate or something?
 
2012-11-05 06:17:59 PM
A lot of you are going to lose lots of money if you are betting on O. All the polls are based on 2008 turnout, which is heavily dem. 2012 is more like R +3. Watch.
 
2012-11-05 06:24:09 PM
I can't stop laughing at everyone taking the "3 Statisticals" spoofs seriously

t1.gstatic.com
 
2012-11-05 06:27:29 PM
i.imgur.com
 
2012-11-05 06:29:20 PM
303-235 Obama

49.6 - 47.1 Obama
 
2012-11-05 06:31:55 PM

Rockdrummer: A lot of you are going to lose lots of money if you are betting on O. All the polls are based on 2008 turnout, which is heavily dem. 2012 is more like R +3. Watch.


No they are not. They usually actually just grab whatever sampling of R/D that they get. They don't actually adjust them, that's what the Republicans are complaining about.
 
2012-11-05 06:33:23 PM
The smart money right now is on 303 for Obama with Romney taking Florida, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 332. Anything more than that would be unexpected.
 
2012-11-05 06:35:35 PM

Communist_Manifesto: I can't stop laughing at everyone taking the "3 Statisticals" spoofs seriously

t1.gstatic.com


Dammit, I can't keep up with all of them.
 
2012-11-05 06:36:13 PM
always wanted to try total fark, so here goes
O-270,49.5%
R-268,48.9%
rest of PV goes to random 3rd partiers
 
2012-11-05 06:38:48 PM
map: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bnEE
 
2012-11-05 06:39:18 PM

Rockdrummer: A lot of you are going to lose lots of money if you are betting on O. All the polls are based on 2008 turnout, which is heavily dem. 2012 is more like R +3. Watch.


Wrong!

Poll Averages Have No History of Consistent Partisan Bias - fivethirtyeight

But pollsters, at least if they are following the industry's standard guidelines, do not choose how many Democrats, Republicans or independent voters to put into their samples - any more than they choose the number of voters for Mr. Obama or Mitt Romney. Instead, this is determined by the responses of the voters that they reach after calling random numbers from telephone directories or registered voter lists.


In fact what you are arguing is what the Republicans are calling "unskewed polls". You should actually get your talking points straight because you are saying what the polls are doing is correct but what the Republicans are doing is wrong.
 
2012-11-05 06:42:15 PM
303 - 235, 50.1 - 49.9, 53 seats for D/I in the Senate, still R lead in the House but I don't follow that do I can't say for sure there. They'll lose seats, but not enough.
 
2012-11-05 06:42:52 PM
img502.imageshack.us

Only one I wasn't too sure about was Florida.

and as far as the Popular vote goes

Obama: 50.6
Romney: 48.4
Other: 1.0
 
2012-11-05 06:44:14 PM
I'm late to the party as usual, but here's my wishful thinking prediction (I'm sure the actual results will be closer but still enough for an O win):

O: 332
R: 206

Popular vote:
O: 50.8%
R: 46.6%
Other*: 2.6%

*Third parties & "none of the above" lumped together since ballots vary by state
 
2012-11-05 06:44:17 PM

krej55: always wanted to try total fark, so here goes


You ain't gonna get it that way.
 
2012-11-05 06:46:49 PM

DamnYankees: Just FYI, for all you people not posting popular vote predictions, you are pretty much guaranteed not to win. There's almost certainly going to be a tie for the winning EV count. I don't know if anyone cares, just a heads up.


I dunno if you're still around, but I didn't do a PV earlier. Mostly because I don't really expect to win. But anyways, you can add mine if you are still doing it.

Obama: 290, 50.2
Romney: 248, 48.7
Other: 0, 1.1
 
2012-11-05 06:51:47 PM

timujin: Seacop: Romney's got this.

Three statisticals..

1. 30% of Hillary supporters for Romney <gary_coleman.jpg>
2. 1 in 7 undecided Anyone who is still undecided is unlikely to have the brainpower to find their local polling station
3. Silent Majority The "silent majority" are the same 37% or so who don't bother voting.

Romney wins. You guys are gonna be sooo pissed off.


you need to google garypdx
 
2012-11-05 06:52:18 PM

Corvus: aedude01: As much as I hate to say it, here's my prediction for tomorrow:

Gaius Baltar 307
Laura Roslin 231

If you think about Gaius Baltar and Mitt Romney are a lot a like.


Not really. Roslin was the religious one that saw "visions." She also outlawed abortion in her first term, and approved of waterboarding-like interrogation techniques.

sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net

/Made before the Final Cylon reveal during the Palin/McCain campaign.
 
2012-11-05 07:05:33 PM
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bnOc
My best guess: Giant DOuche 294 / TuRd Sandwich 244
 
2012-11-05 07:07:49 PM
O: 332
R: 206

Popular vote:
O: 50.6%
R: 48.8%
 
2012-11-05 07:17:18 PM
270 Romney
268 Obama

BOOM! US explodes in a civil/race war. Canada sits back rubbing its hands together going "Eeeeeexcellent". Then our army of gay marriaged soldiers swoop in and take over.

MWAAA-HA-HAAAAAAAA!
 
2012-11-05 07:21:50 PM

NobleHam: The smart money right now is on 303 for Obama with Romney taking Florida, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 332. Anything more than that would be unexpected.


Oh, and popular vote...

Obama - 50.3%
Romney - 49.2%
Other - 1.1%
 
2012-11-05 07:38:49 PM

Seacop: timujin: Seacop: Romney's got this.

Three statisticals..

1. 30% of Hillary supporters for Romney <gary_coleman.jpg>
2. 1 in 7 undecided Anyone who is still undecided is unlikely to have the brainpower to find their local polling station
3. Silent Majority The "silent majority" are the same 37% or so who don't bother voting.

Romney wins. You guys are gonna be sooo pissed off.

you need to google garypdx


I'm pretty sure I don't want that in my browser history.
 
2012-11-05 07:48:32 PM
sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net

Ok here's my final map. I left Ohio and Florida as 'too close to call' due to the massive amounts of vote suppression by the state governments there. Clearly Obama doesn't need them to win so this is my 'election night map' prediction. In the end I think FL will got to Romney and Ohio to Obama.

Once the lawyers are done I think it'll be something like this:
Obama 303
Romney 235
 
2012-11-05 07:48:55 PM
Obama 290, Romney 248.

Romney takes the following which Obama won last time: Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, the Omaha based district in Nebraska and very narrowly, Virginia, which won't be called until Wednesday afternoon. Reasonably close but not enough to win.

Senate: Republicans only pick up 1 seat. They really picked bad candidates in several states
House: Democrats do NOT take back the House. As a matter fact they actually lose a net of about 5 seats. And Michele Bachmann and Paul Ryan EASILY win re-election.

Let's see if I'm any good at this.
 
2012-11-05 07:49:58 PM
Yeah, put me in the 290/248 column. Romney takes Florida, NC, and Virgina but not much else.

Oh, and 48-47 popular vote. For Romney. For the lulz.
 
2012-11-05 07:50:11 PM

Corvus: Rockdrummer: A lot of you are going to lose lots of money if you are betting on O. All the polls are based on 2008 turnout, which is heavily dem. 2012 is more like R +3. Watch.

Wrong!

Poll Averages Have No History of Consistent Partisan Bias - fivethirtyeight

But pollsters, at least if they are following the industry's standard guidelines, do not choose how many Democrats, Republicans or independent voters to put into their samples - any more than they choose the number of voters for Mr. Obama or Mitt Romney. Instead, this is determined by the responses of the voters that they reach after calling random numbers from telephone directories or registered voter lists.

In fact what you are arguing is what the Republicans are calling "unskewed polls". You should actually get your talking points straight because you are saying what the polls are doing is correct but what the Republicans are doing is wrong.


Nate Silver is not an authority on this. He's thin and gay. That makes him non-credible.
 
2012-11-05 07:52:03 PM
O 294
R 244

Romney flips Colorado, the rest stick to the current polls.

Popular vote O 49.5 / R 49 / I 1.5
 
2012-11-05 07:53:17 PM

NobleHam: NobleHam: The smart money right now is on 303 for Obama with Romney taking Florida, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 332. Anything more than that would be unexpected.

Oh, and popular vote...

Obama - 50.3%
Romney - 49.2%
Other - 1.1%


I'm think Obama is going to lose Florida because it's Florida and they are not well mentally. I would be happy for Obama to win without Florida. The fact that the race is so close there is very bad for Romney.
 
2012-11-05 08:08:35 PM
You people thinking Obama will take VA are off your ass.
 
2012-11-05 08:11:43 PM

tjfly: You people thinking Obama will take VA are off your ass.


So certain are you?
 
2012-11-05 08:17:56 PM

tjfly: You people thinking Obama will take VA are off your ass.


Well Obama is leading very slightly in Virginia in the RCP poll of polls. Even Rasmussen has it within the margin of air (2 points).

Saying someone is "off their ass" is just silly when it is basically a coin flip.
 
2012-11-05 08:24:46 PM

tjfly: You people thinking Obama will take VA are off your ass.

All Virginia polls this week:
Obama Romney Started Finished Polling agency
47% 46% Nov 02 Nov 04 IPSOS
51% 47% Nov 03 Nov 04 PPP
50% 44% Nov 01 Nov 03 Zogby
49% 44% Oct 30 Nov 01 IPSOS
49% 46% Oct 30 Oct 31 PPP
49% 48% Oct 30 Oct 30 Pulse Opinion Research
45% 49% Oct 27 Oct 29 Zogby
48% 46% Oct 27 Oct 30 IPSOS
49% 47% Oct 23 Oct 28 Quinnipiac
 
2012-11-05 08:26:30 PM

GoSlash27: 50% 44% Nov 01 Nov 03 Zogby


GoSlash27: 45% 49% Oct 27 Oct 29 Zogby


How is this possible? Do they stink at polling THAT badly?
 
2012-11-05 08:27:06 PM
O: 310
R: 210
Independent: whatever is left over.
 
2012-11-05 08:29:22 PM

DamnYankees: PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls
Y'all we have 2016 primary portions for our Florida, Iowa, and New Hampshire polls coming later in the week :)


NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!


lol

Obama 347 (51.1%)
R$ 191 (47.9%)
Other (1%)
 
2012-11-05 08:30:21 PM

Rockdrummer: A lot of you are going to lose lots of money if you are betting on O. All the polls are based on 2008 turnout, which is heavily dem. 2012 is more like R +3. Watch.


Do you have a link to a web-site which adjusts for this and unskews (not sure if this is the correct term) the polls accordingly? My gut tells me Obama is losing but I need a table or chart to validate these feelings for me.
 
2012-11-05 08:30:41 PM
The Blah Guy 284, Money Boo Boo 254. Popular vote: Fartbama by 0.6%

img338.imageshack.us
 
2012-11-05 08:32:26 PM

DamnYankees: GoSlash27: 50% 44% Nov 01 Nov 03 Zogby

GoSlash27: 45% 49% Oct 27 Oct 29 Zogby

How is this possible? Do they stink at polling THAT badly?


Yeah, I saw those and thought to myself "Is Zogby the LW equivalent of Rassmussen?"
 
2012-11-05 08:39:29 PM

MisterRonbo: The Blah Guy 284, Money Boo Boo 254. Popular vote: Fartbama by 0.6%

[img338.imageshack.us image 641x567]


That's racist
 
2012-11-05 08:41:19 PM

92myrtle: [oi50.tinypic.com image 752x561]


[www.dorifun.com image 500x365]


Some people just want to watch the world burn.
 
2012-11-05 08:52:37 PM

DamnYankees: GoSlash27: 50% 44% Nov 01 Nov 03 Zogby

GoSlash27: 45% 49% Oct 27 Oct 29 Zogby

How is this possible? Do they stink at polling THAT badly?


I didn't ask. I'd say it's probably a combination of the Obama trend over the last few days and plain ol' margin of error.
 
2012-11-05 09:06:10 PM
i.imgur.com
 
2012-11-05 09:20:02 PM

hdhale: Romney 289-249, though we likely won't know the result tomorrow night or even the day after.


bwahahahahahahahaha oh my god that's some funny shiat. If Romney wins, *I'LL* buy you a month of TF.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
 
2012-11-05 09:20:35 PM
Romney 312 52.7%
Obama 226 47%
Other 0 0.3%
 
2012-11-05 09:28:51 PM
O- 359
R- 179

O- 52.2%
R- 46.3%
others 1.5%
 
2012-11-05 09:34:56 PM

NobleHam: NobleHam: The smart money right now is on 303 for Obama with Romney taking Florida, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 332. Anything more than that would be unexpected.

Oh, and popular vote...

Obama - 50.3%
Romney - 49.2%
Other - 1.1%


God, I'm an idiot.

Romney - 48.6%
 
2012-11-05 09:39:10 PM
 
2012-11-05 09:42:57 PM
440-98!
Link

imageshack.us
 
2012-11-05 09:44:04 PM
Note to DY:
440 is not my official entry in the pool.
 
2012-11-05 09:44:09 PM
I wanna see this happen, just so the media will call it early when Ohio flips and cry when Romney still loses

i46.tinypic.com

O-272
R-266
 
2012-11-05 09:44:47 PM
I predict alot of butthurt for Romnesiacs on Wednesday.
 
2012-11-05 09:46:58 PM
Electoral College:

316 - Romney
222 - Obama


Popular Vote:

54.5% - Romney
45.5% - Obama 
 
2012-11-05 09:49:34 PM

GeneralJim: Electoral College:

316 - Romney
222 - Obama


Popular Vote:

54.5% - Romney
45.5% - Obama


Please, share whatever you're smoking.
 
2012-11-05 09:55:50 PM
Oh, yeah, the House stays as is or goes further Republican,
and the Republicans take the Senate with a small majority.
 
2012-11-05 10:01:10 PM

mikemoto:

Senate: Republicans only pick up 1 seat. They really picked bad candidates in several states


Check each race. Its hard to see how Republicans pick up even one seat. They might end up losing a seat.

House: Democrats do NOT take back the House. As a matter fact they actually lose a net of about 5 seats. And Michele Bachmann and Paul Ryan EASILY win re-election.

Nah, Democrats pick up 5 seats. There are some pretty weak tea party freshmen (Joe Walsh is the poster boy), and Obama has coattails.
 
2012-11-05 10:01:50 PM
i111.photobucket.com

R-302
O-236
 
2012-11-05 10:12:25 PM
aedude01:
GeneralJim:
Electoral College:

316 - Romney
222 - Obama


Popular Vote:

54.5% - Romney
45.5% - Obama


Please, share whatever you're smoking.

Really? Want to bet a dollar a point on who is closer?

That is, add up one point for how much off you are on Obama's total, and one point for how much off you are on Romney's total. I do the same. The winner has the lower total, and wins the loser's total minus their total, in dollars. To refresh your memory, YOUR prediction was:

Once the lawyers are done I think it'll be something like this:
Obama 303
Romney 235


Has a fark-proof wager mechanism been developed for Fark?
 
2012-11-05 10:31:42 PM

GeneralJim:
Electoral College:

316 - Romney
222 - Obama


Popular Vote:

54.5% - Romney
45.5% - Obama


Want to bet a dollar a point on who is closer?

That is, add up one point for how much off you are on Obama's total, and one point for how much off you are on Romney's total. I do the same. The winner has the lower total, and wins the loser's total minus their total, in dollars.
Has a fark-proof wager mechanism been developed for Fark?


I'll take that action. I'm O:284 R:254 I think I'm giving Romney the benefit of the doubt, I am giving him Florida and Virginia.

And though it doesn't figure in, I seriously doubt the popular vote difference will be more than two points, probably less than 1 point (with Obama taking it).

You can donate my winnings to the Haight Ashbury Free Clinic, earmarked for the Women's Needs Center, remember to fill in the special note as: In Honor of Mister Ronbo

(I think you haven't done the math on this bet. Since my numbers are much closer together than yours, if the electoral college is very close I still win, even if Obama loses)
 
2012-11-05 10:32:41 PM

GeneralJim: aedude01: GeneralJim:
Electoral College:

316 - Romney
222 - Obama


Popular Vote:

54.5% - Romney
45.5% - Obama

Please, share whatever you're smoking.
Really? Want to bet a dollar a point on who is closer?

That is, add up one point for how much off you are on Obama's total, and one point for how much off you are on Romney's total. I do the same. The winner has the lower total, and wins the loser's total minus their total, in dollars. To refresh your memory, YOUR prediction was:

Once the lawyers are done I think it'll be something like this:
Obama 303
Romney 235

Has a fark-proof wager mechanism been developed for Fark?


How about this: We both donate $50 to the Red Cross, and whoever's right gets bragging rights? They currently need the money more than I do.
 
2012-11-05 10:44:58 PM
I've got 0bongo 288 50.2
Rmone¥ 250 48.4
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bpQu

I've never been wrong before.
/I've never guessed before
 
2012-11-05 10:57:56 PM

GeneralJim: aedude01: GeneralJim:
Electoral College:

316 - Romney
222 - Obama


Popular Vote:

54.5% - Romney
45.5% - Obama

Please, share whatever you're smoking.
Really? Want to bet a dollar a point on who is closer?

That is, add up one point for how much off you are on Obama's total, and one point for how much off you are on Romney's total. I do the same. The winner has the lower total, and wins the loser's total minus their total, in dollars. To refresh your memory, YOUR prediction was:

Once the lawyers are done I think it'll be something like this:
Obama 303
Romney 235

Has a fark-proof wager mechanism been developed for Fark?


Dude, I'll bet you straight up. Fark the points.

There are a lot of delusional people in here. I'd say tonight, but it's every single day.
 
2012-11-05 11:04:11 PM
Had worked up an electoral map of Obama 303, republican nominee 235 back in march. Kinda surprised my current map looks exactly the same but there it is, sticking with it.

Popular vote? I'm note sure, maybe O 50.6, R 48.3
 
2012-11-05 11:17:24 PM
Drunk.

Obama gets 288, Romney gets 250, Obama gets 52% of the popular vote.
 
2012-11-05 11:52:08 PM
Mitt the stormin' Mormin' Romney: plus eleventy million
Barrack Hussein Fartbongo Obama: minus infinity plus 1

popular vote: Jesus: 98.99%, Satan: 0.01%

Suck it libs.
 
2012-11-06 12:32:54 AM

entitygm: I wanna see this happen, just so the media will call it early when Ohio flips and cry when Romney still loses

[i46.tinypic.com image 850x622]

O-272
R-266


Very, very cruel. I like the cut of your jib.

I'm still going with 318, fl GOP, nc dem, and 40 news anchors trying to fill up 6 hours of air time from 7:31pm till they can go home and get plastered.
 
2012-11-06 12:56:49 AM
EV:
Romney 274
Obama 264

Popular vote:
Obama 51.4%
Romney 47.1%
Other 1.5%

A victory in the popular vote and four years of terrible Romney presidency results in Obama pulling a Grover Cleveland Redeemer (or is that a Grover Cleveland Steamer?) and winning the 2016 election with the following "Nixon vs. McGovern"-like beatdown:

2016 EV:
Obama 514
Romney 24

2016 Popular vote:
Obama 60.7%
Romney 36.3%
Other 3.0%
 
2012-11-06 02:04:05 AM
I can't make a picture map, so I'll list out in text format my choices.

Obama: 285
Romney: 253

Obama wins WA, OR, CA, NV, NM, CO, MN, IA, WI, IL, MI, PA, NY, VT, NH, ME, MA, RI, CT, MD, VA, HI, DC
Romney wins AK, ID, UT, AZ, MT, WY, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, MO, AR, LA, IN, KY, TN, MS, AL, GA, SC, WV, NC, FL, OH

I can't shake the feeling that even though Obama is well ahead in the polls in Ohio and Florida that the shenanigans there will put Romney over the top. That said, even with those wins and a potential win in Virginia, Romney would still lose the election with this map. Who would have guessed that three months ago?
 
2012-11-06 02:08:53 AM

mrshowrules: DamnYankees: mrshowrules 284 254

Please add the percentage to mine Obama: 49.5% to Romney 48.5%, Other 2.0%


Could not be more irrelevant. Although, sounds about right.
 
2012-11-06 02:22:28 AM

Serious Black: I can't make a picture map, so I'll list out in text format my choices.

Obama: 285
Romney: 253

Obama wins WA, OR, CA, NV, NM, CO, MN, IA, WI, IL, MI, PA, NY, VT, NH, ME, MA, RI, CT, MD, VA, HI, DC
Romney wins AK, ID, UT, AZ, MT, WY, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, MO, AR, LA, IN, KY, TN, MS, AL, GA, SC, WV, NC, FL, OH

I can't shake the feeling that even though Obama is well ahead in the polls in Ohio and Florida that the shenanigans there will put Romney over the top. That said, even with those wins and a potential win in Virginia, Romney would still lose the election with this map. Who would have guessed that three months ago?


Oh, and if we're predicting popular vote percentages, I'm going with Romney 49.5%, Obama 49.2%, third party candidates the rest.
 
2012-11-06 02:56:19 AM
Unable to link map...

Obama: CA, CT, DC, DE, FL, HI, IA, IL, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NM, NV, NY, OR, PA, RI, VA, VT, WA, WI

Romney: AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, OH, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY

Electoral vote: Obama 305, Romney 233
Popular vote: Obama 50.7%, Romney 47.9%
 
2012-11-06 04:13:59 AM
Link

Obama: 275
Romney: 263
 
2012-11-06 04:38:37 AM
 
2012-11-06 05:20:35 AM
i632.photobucket.com

Big variable is Florida, but I'll gamble Obama doing a little better than predicted there, just to be different.

For Popular Vote, I'll say Obama up by a 2.1% margin.

I'll also predict 53D/47R for the Senate, just for good measure.
 
2012-11-06 06:35:07 AM

MisterRonbo: mikemoto:

Senate: Republicans only pick up 1 seat. They really picked bad candidates in several states

Check each race. Its hard to see how Republicans pick up even one seat. They might end up losing a seat.

House: Democrats do NOT take back the House. As a matter fact they actually lose a net of about 5 seats. And Michele Bachmann and Paul Ryan EASILY win re-election.

Nah, Democrats pick up 5 seats. There are some pretty weak tea party freshmen (Joe Walsh is the poster boy), and Obama has coattails.


On then senate side, I have the GOP picking up Montana, North Dakota, and Nebraska. They will lose Indiana, Massachusetts and Maine. I'm going out on limb and say that Linda McMahon wins in Connecticut. Murphy is the worst Senate candidate the Democrats are running by far, and Mcmahon's numbers are actually quite good.

As for the House, you are right about Joe Walsh, but he's more the exception than the rule. Other than him, the other pickup opportunities are slim at best. They probably will get a couple of seats back in upstate New York or New Hampshire, but these will be offset by Mia Love beating Matheson in Utah, the open seats in Arkansas and Oklahoma will both go GOP, and North Carolina was so redistricted that the Democrats could easily lose 3 seats in that state alone.
 
2012-11-06 07:27:58 AM

Serious Black: I can't shake the feeling that even though Obama is well ahead in the polls in Ohio and Florida...

almostdumb.com 
You can't be serious.
/He can't be.
 
2012-11-06 10:11:49 AM
Ok - thanks everyone. Tabluating now, will put up a summary thread later.
 
2012-11-06 11:19:03 AM
MisterRonbo:
I'll take that action. I'm O:284 R:254 I think I'm giving Romney the benefit of the doubt, I am giving him Florida and Virginia.

And though it doesn't figure in, I seriously doubt the popular vote difference will be more than two points, probably less than 1 point (with Obama taking it).

You can donate my winnings to the Haight Ashbury Free Clinic, earmarked for the Women's Needs Center, remember to fill in the special note as: In Honor of Mister Ronbo

(I think you haven't done the math on this bet. Since my numbers are much closer together than yours, if the electoral college is very close I still win, even if Obama loses)

I'm very sorry -- I'm going have to retract that offer of a wager. I have been informed that betting on Presidential elections is illegal. Who knew?

We'll just go for "neener, neener" rights, eh?
 
2012-11-06 11:20:37 AM
aedude01:
How about this: We both donate $50 to the Red Cross, and whoever's right gets bragging rights? They currently need the money more than I do.

Sounds very good. I can't picture that being illegal!
 
2012-11-06 11:21:44 AM

I posted this in the new thread but it hasn't been greened (yet), so:

Thanks to everyone who participated in the predictions thread - as stated in that thread, winner gets a free month of TF. Given the sheer number of ties in the EV prediction, it's more than likely we won't know who wins this for a while when they finalize the PV count. I'll post the general stats here, and the full prediction in the next post.

ONGOING TALLY

Predictions: 210
Predictions of Obama Win: 90%

Median Obama EV: 303
Median Romney EV: 235
Mode Obama EV: 303
Mode Romney EV: 235
Mode as Percent of Total: 20%

Median Obama PV: 50.2
Median Romney PV: 48.6

Max Obama EV Prediction: 385
Max Obama PV Prediction: 54.3

Min Obama EV Prediction: 207
Min Obama PV Prediction: 46.5

Max Obama PV Spread: 8.6
Max Romney PV Spread: 8


OBAMA ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION

img.ctrlv.in

OBAMA MARGIN OF VICTORY DISTRIBUTION

img.ctrlv.in

(Doesn't include the one prediction of Romney by 8 for the sake of making the chart more readable).

 
2012-11-06 11:22:35 AM
Your Average Witty Fark User:
Dude, I'll bet you straight up. Fark the points.

There are a lot of delusional people in here. I'd say tonight, but it's every single day.

M'Kay, but, again, it has to be for bragging rights only.
 
2012-11-06 11:55:41 AM

xelnia: A victory in the popular vote and four years of terrible Romney presidency results in Obama pulling a Grover Cleveland Redeemer (or is that a Grover Cleveland Steamer?) and winning the 2016 election with the following "Nixon vs. McGovern"-like beatdown:


I don't really know what the future brings, but Obama has said win or lose, this is his last campaign.
 
2012-11-06 12:09:32 PM

DamnYankees: I guess I might as well port over all the information:

I'll be keeping track of all this in an excel file and once everything is called I'll give the winner a month of TF for free.

My prediction is 303-235 Obama, and he wins the popular vote 50.8 - 48.9. Here are the other predictions that have already been made:

DamnYankees 303 235 50.8 48.9
Aarontology 332 206 50.6 48.5
TheCharmerUnderMe 328 210 50.5 48.8
NowhereMon  304 234 51 48
OtherLittleGuy 290 248 49.3 48.9
The Great EZE  303 235 50.2 48.6
Majick Thise 304 234 49.8 48
mrshowrules 284 254
GAT_00  285 253 50.4 49.2
NuttierThanEver  304 234 50.4 48.1
hillbillypharmacist 290 248 49.8 47.4
propasaurus 305 233 50.6 48.5


DAMN
move it to a google datasheet so everyone can see it ...
hell, go crazy and let us edit it too? nah, might be too crazy
 
2012-11-06 12:13:22 PM

namatad: DAMN
move it to a google datasheet so everyone can see it ...
hell, go crazy and let us edit it too? nah, might be too crazy


No, no editing. I'm not gonna change the results if someone changes their mind at this point. For some reason Google Docs isn't letting me import the spreadsheet.
 
2012-11-06 12:15:17 PM

DamnYankees: namatad: DAMN
move it to a google datasheet so everyone can see it ...
hell, go crazy and let us edit it too? nah, might be too crazy

No, no editing. I'm not gonna change the results if someone changes their mind at this point. For some reason Google Docs isn't letting me import the spreadsheet.


copy and paste?
:D
 
2012-11-06 12:21:43 PM
Link to Google Docs spreadsheet with all the predictions: Link
 
2012-11-06 12:30:47 PM
Damn--I uploaded the wrong map. Here is the correct one, and this is the minimum for Mitts:

i49.tinypic.com
 
2012-11-06 12:31:42 PM
Thanks.
 
2012-11-06 01:56:22 PM
Did I miss it? Oh well,I've been wrong every time anyway.

Electoral Vote:
315 O
222 R

Popular Vote
52.4 O
45.8 R
 
2012-11-06 01:57:43 PM
Obama - 300
Romney - 238
Mini Ditka - 0

Obama - 0.508617259
Romney - 0.491382741
 
2012-11-06 02:00:55 PM
Obama 332 - 50.9%
Romney 206 - 48.4%
 
2012-11-06 02:04:44 PM
I get this weird feeling that Tennessee may go blue this time as a dark horse swing state. It may not happen, but if it does - Romney may lose the election because of the missing 11 votes.

/wishful thinking, I know.
 
2012-11-06 02:04:51 PM

Stoj: Obama - 300
Romney - 238
Mini Ditka - 0

Obama - 0.508617259
Romney - 0.491382741



This is BULL CRAP!!
 
2012-11-06 02:06:48 PM
Obama 313 51
Rmoney 225 48

thanks for the spreadsheet
now lock the header row please
:D
 
2012-11-06 02:17:12 PM

Mini Ditka: Stoj: Obama - 300
Romney - 238
Mini Ditka - 0

Obama - 0.508617259
Romney - 0.491382741


This is BULL CRAP!!


Hahahaha... nice.
 
2012-11-06 02:17:55 PM
Republicans successfully steal Florida and Ohio.

BHO: 285
WMR: 253
 
2012-11-06 02:18:52 PM
323 Romney 215 Obama

Romney takes 53%
 
2012-11-06 02:34:35 PM
President Obama: 290
Mitty Kitty: 248

Obama wins popular vote 52.1% to 47.9%
 
2012-11-06 03:10:07 PM
Obama- 308
Romney -230

Obama wins popular vote 51.8 to 48.2
 
2012-11-06 03:22:17 PM
Obama 35, Romney 26 with 3:06 minutes overtime, quarterback holds out the clock.
 
2012-11-06 03:24:00 PM
Obama 303
Romney 235

Obama wins pop vote 50.5 - 49.1
 
2012-11-06 03:32:43 PM
EV: Bronco 288, R-Money, 250.
PV: Bronco 49.3, R-Money 49.0
 
2012-11-06 03:52:25 PM
None of this matters. It was called Sunday. Redskins lost, that means Romney is automatically president and Obama can go home (Chicago, Hawaii, Kenya, whereever.....) :)
 
2012-11-06 04:34:26 PM
O: 281 EV, 49.7% PV
R: 257 EV, 49.1% PV

Linky

Obama loses OH due to shenanigans.

/waboom
 
2012-11-06 06:12:34 PM
303 Obama

235 Romney

50.8% Obama

49.1% Romney
 
2012-11-06 08:01:41 PM

GeneralJim: Your Average Witty Fark User: Dude, I'll bet you straight up. Fark the points.

There are a lot of delusional people in here. I'd say tonight, but it's every single day.
M'Kay, but, again, it has to be for bragging rights only.


Not good enough. I put my money where my mouth is.
 
2012-11-07 12:10:25 AM

Your Average Witty Fark User: GeneralJim: Your Average Witty Fark User: Dude, I'll bet you straight up. Fark the points.

There are a lot of delusional people in here. I'd say tonight, but it's every single day.
M'Kay, but, again, it has to be for bragging rights only.

Not good enough. I put my money where my mouth is.


And you lose.

Congrats for not having the spine to put your money where your mouth is.
 
2012-11-08 06:12:55 AM
Your Average Witty Fark User:
GeneralJim: Your Average Witty Fark User: Dude, I'll bet you straight up. Fark the points.

There are a lot of delusional people in here. I'd say tonight, but it's every single day.

M'Kay, but, again, it has to be for bragging rights only.

Not good enough. I put my money where my mouth is.

Good for you! Me, I don't announce I'm going to commit a crime on a public forum - at least, once I am made aware that it is a crime.
 
2012-11-08 06:15:28 AM
Your Average Witty Fark User:
Congrats for not having the spine to put your money where your mouth is.

It's not the spine... It's the anus. I like mine at its current size.
 
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