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(270 To Win)   Fark Electoral College Contest: post your best guesstimate of how the final electoral college map will look after Tuesday's election. Up for grabs: bragging rights for the next four years in the Politics tab   (270towin.com) divider line 524
    More: Spiffy, political sciences, u.s president  
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1462 clicks; posted to Politics » on 05 Nov 2012 at 1:39 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-05 11:56:08 AM  
Really? We already have a thread on this with over 45 comments and 12 predictions which are being tracked in an excel file. Is there a reason to start a new one?

http://www.fark.com/comments/7417832/Its-that-time-of-year-Make-your- o fficial-electoral-college-prediction-winner-will-recieve-something-of- very-little-value-Make-sure-to-include-popular-vote-prediction-to-one- decimal-place-as-a-tie-breaker
 
2012-11-05 11:57:36 AM  
I guess I might as well port over all the information:

I'll be keeping track of all this in an excel file and once everything is called I'll give the winner a month of TF for free.

My prediction is 303-235 Obama, and he wins the popular vote 50.8 - 48.9. Here are the other predictions that have already been made:

DamnYankees 303 235 50.8 48.9
Aarontology 332 206 50.6 48.5
TheCharmerUnderMe 328 210 50.5 48.8
NowhereMon  304 234 51 48
OtherLittleGuy 290 248 49.3 48.9
The Great EZE  303 235 50.2 48.6
Majick Thise 304 234 49.8 48
mrshowrules 284 254
GAT_00  285 253 50.4 49.2
NuttierThanEver  304 234 50.4 48.1
hillbillypharmacist 290 248 49.8 47.4
propasaurus 305 233 50.6 48.5
 
2012-11-05 12:01:42 PM  
Whatever Nate Silver is saying.
 
2012-11-05 12:01:56 PM  

DamnYankees: Really? We already have a thread on this with over 45 comments and 12 predictions which are being tracked in an excel file. Is there a reason to start a new one?


Well, yes as far as I am concerned, because this is the first time I've seen it. Although I guess they could just reup the previous thread.

Anyway I agree with you. Obama 303, Romney 235.
 
2012-11-05 12:03:04 PM  

gilgigamesh: Well, yes as far as I am concerned, because this is the first time I've seen it. Although I guess they could just reup the previous thread.


They made the other thread red. I'm just saying they should have greened that one rather than greening one with 0 comments.

gilgigamesh: Anyway I agree with you. Obama 303, Romney 235.


Popular vote prediction for tie-breaking?
 
vpb [TotalFark]
2012-11-05 12:03:36 PM  
Obama 311-227
 
2012-11-05 12:05:37 PM  
Romney 271.  I don't believe it, but I wish it were so.  So, I'm going with my heart.  A squeaker with Obama getting Ohio and Romney getting Wisconsin of all things.
 
More likely, a close sweep of the swing states by Obama.
 
2012-11-05 12:07:27 PM  
332-206 Obama.
 
2012-11-05 12:09:43 PM  
290-248 Obama
PV: 49.5 48.1 Obama
 
2012-11-05 12:12:05 PM  
i.imgur.com
 
2012-11-05 12:12:44 PM  

DamnYankees: Popular vote prediction for tie-breaking?


Ah, ok. Um, Fartbongzer0 49.7%, Mittens 49.0%, third party .3%. Just to throw bombs around the thread.
 
2012-11-05 12:13:36 PM  

DamnYankees: Really? We already have a thread on this


Redlight threads can only be seen by TFers. This one is for all Farkers.
 
2012-11-05 12:14:28 PM  

Moderator: DamnYankees: Really? We already have a thread on this

Redlight threads can only be seen by TFers. This one is for all Farkers.


Yes, I know. I was just saying you could have greened the other one. Can I make a simple request to ask people in the headline to also include popular vote totals? Otherwise we're not going to have tiebreakers.

Sorry for being a pain on this.
 
2012-11-05 12:14:55 PM  
Romney 289-249, though we likely won't know the result tomorrow night or even the day after.
 
2012-11-05 12:16:17 PM  

DamnYankees: Moderator: DamnYankees: Really? We already have a thread on this

Redlight threads can only be seen by TFers. This one is for all Farkers.

Yes, I know. I was just saying you could have greened the other one. Can I make a simple request to ask people in the headline to also include popular vote totals? Otherwise we're not going to have tiebreakers.

Sorry for being a pain on this.


Recap for simplicity:

O: 303 - 49.7
R: 235 - 49.0
 
2012-11-05 12:17:36 PM  
Nothing shocking:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bkvW

O: 303
R: 235
 
2012-11-05 12:17:45 PM  

Moderator: DamnYankees: Really? We already have a thread on this

Redlight threads can only be seen by TFers. This one is for all Farkers.


More than a little bit of a dick move to not green his and make a new one since we were already using the original.
 
2012-11-05 12:19:13 PM  

GAT_00: Moderator: DamnYankees: Really? We already have a thread on this

Redlight threads can only be seen by TFers. This one is for all Farkers.

More than a little bit of a dick move to not green his and make a new one since we were already using the original.


Maybe they didn't see the other one - not a big deal. The only issue now is there's no notice to give a popular vote total so we're gonna have ties (most likely). There's only a discrete number of reasonable EV outcomes.
 
2012-11-05 12:20:57 PM  
My predictions: Obama 303 / Romney 235
 
Of the "battleground" states, I predict Obama will win Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada while Romney will take Florida and North Carolina.
 
I'm not sold on the Virginia and Colorado picks, but I'm going with my gut on this one.
 
2012-11-05 12:22:11 PM  
270 - 268 Obama. I have Obama winning Nevada, Michigan, Virginia, New Hampshire and Wisconsin but losing Ohio and Florida.
 
2012-11-05 12:23:35 PM  

WTF Indeed: 332-206 Obama.


Bless you sir. That was funny.
 
2012-11-05 12:23:41 PM  
I was told when I got a TF subscription, that Paypal would do all my math.
How about Obama 60% of the votes and Romney 45% 40%
 
2012-11-05 12:24:31 PM  
ONGOING TALLY

Predictions: 20
Predictions of Obama Win: 90%

Median Obama EV: 303
Median Romney EV 235
Mode Obama EV: 303
Mode Romney EV: 235

Median Obama PV: 50.4
Median Romney PV: 48.5

Max Obama EV Prediction: 332
Min Obama EV Prediction: 249
 
2012-11-05 12:24:48 PM  
Obama: 1
Romney: 1

Why yes. I am that annoying dick on The Price is Right who says everything is a buck.
 
2012-11-05 12:25:27 PM  

DamnYankees: The only issue now is there's no notice to give a popular vote total so we're gonna have ties (most likely).

 
The headline here says the "winner" gets bragging rights. Sounds like the subby of this thread wanted to make things simple, unlike your redlit submission.
 
2012-11-05 12:27:10 PM  

Man On A Mission: The headline here says the "winner" gets bragging rights. Sounds like the subby of this thread wanted to make things simple, unlike your redlit submission.


Yes, my redlit was so complicated. Asking for PV also.

I offered a month free TF for the winner just for fun. I just wanted to make sure there actually was a winner. Sorry for the hassle!
 
2012-11-05 12:27:42 PM  

DamnYankees: mrshowrules 284 254


Please add the percentage to mine Obama: 49.5% to Romney 48.5%, Other 2.0%
 
2012-11-05 12:28:42 PM  

DamnYankees: Man On A Mission: The headline here says the "winner" gets bragging rights. Sounds like the subby of this thread wanted to make things simple, unlike your redlit submission.

Yes, my redlit was so complicated. Asking for PV also.

I offered a month free TF for the winner just for fun. I just wanted to make sure there actually was a winner. Sorry for the hassle!


What do you do if more than one Farker calls it right? The percentage as a tie-breaker?
 
2012-11-05 12:29:10 PM  

mrshowrules: What do you do if more than one Farker calls it right? The percentage as a tie-breaker?


Yes, that was the idea.
 
2012-11-05 12:41:46 PM  

DamnYankees: I guess I might as well port over all the information:

I'll be keeping track of all this in an excel file and once everything is called I'll give the winner a month of TF for free.

My prediction is 303-235 Obama, and he wins the popular vote 50.8 - 48.9. Here are the other predictions that have already been made:

DamnYankees 303 235 50.8 48.9
Aarontology 332 206 50.6 48.5
TheCharmerUnderMe 328 210 50.5 48.8
NowhereMon  304 234 51 48
OtherLittleGuy 290 248 49.3 48.9
The Great EZE  303 235 50.2 48.6
Majick Thise 304 234 49.8 48
mrshowrules 284 254
GAT_00  285 253 50.4 49.2
NuttierThanEver  304 234 50.4 48.1
hillbillypharmacist 290 248 49.8 47.4
propasaurus 305 233 50.6 48.5


Correction for you, from the other thread -

EV: O 290, R 248

PV: R 49.3 O 48.9

Obama wins the EV, Romney wins the PV.

/yes, I'm predicting 4 years of cacophany
 
2012-11-05 12:43:09 PM  

OtherLittleGuy: Correction for you, from the other thread -

EV: O 290, R 248

PV: R 49.3 O 48.9

Obama wins the EV, Romney wins the PV.


Ah, thanks. Missed that. Fixed now.
 
2012-11-05 12:52:17 PM  
My prediction:

O = 303 EV, 50.5% PV
R = 235 EV, 48.4% PV
 
2012-11-05 12:53:53 PM  
Okay, I'll play.

O: 288 50.2
R: 250 49.3
 
2012-11-05 12:57:58 PM  
Obama: 271, 49.8% PV
Romney: 267, 49.9% PV

Enmappinated

/book it
//done
 
2012-11-05 01:04:07 PM  
I'll take a twist on an otherwise easy bet: O gets the easy ones, doesn't get FL, but picks up NC.

Obama with 318
PV: 51.5 vs. 47

O's numerical advantage in FL which is rendered moot due a can of gas and a match suddenly appearing over bags of ballots from blue-leaning districts. Shocking, I know. Obama takes NC but it's close otherwise.
 
2012-11-05 01:07:13 PM  
Obama: 269, 50.2%
Romney: 269, 48.9%
 
2012-11-05 01:08:03 PM  

downstairs: Obama: 269, 50.2%
Romney: 269, 48.9%


This would be a hellish outcome. Luckily its extraordinarily unlikely.
 
2012-11-05 01:12:57 PM  
To repeat:

O 305-R233
50.6% - 48.5%
 
2012-11-05 01:13:56 PM  
Obama: 281, 49.9%
Romney: 257, 49.1%
Mappy time
 
2012-11-05 01:14:34 PM  

DamnYankees: downstairs: Obama: 269, 50.2%
Romney: 269, 48.9%

This would be a hellish outcome. Luckily its extraordinarily unlikely.



It would be amusing and informative.  But yes, it has downsides.  Imagine the litigation and recounts.
 
I posted above, but here it is with PV
 
Romney 271 - 48.9
Obama 267 - 48.4
 
Third parties steal the rest of the PV.
 
2012-11-05 01:15:03 PM  
I am, apparently, insane, since after looking at the site, I'm coming up with Obama 337, Romney 197. So, sure, let's go with that.
 
2012-11-05 01:15:34 PM  
dl.dropbox.com

New Hampshire always seems to do strange things. That's the one I think beats the polls.

Popular vote:

Obama 50.4%
Romney 48.5%
 
2012-11-05 01:15:43 PM  
SlothB77 Prediction:

R 48.8% 273
O 48.2% 265
 
2012-11-05 01:16:22 PM  

timujin: I am, apparently, insane, since after looking at the site, I'm coming up with Obama 337, Romney 197. So, sure, let's go with that.


also, I really, really love commas.
 
2012-11-05 01:16:22 PM  

timujin: I am, apparently, insane, since after looking at the site, I'm coming up with Obama 337, Romney 197. So, sure, let's go with that.


That doesn't add up to 538.
 
2012-11-05 01:19:32 PM  

DamnYankees: timujin: I am, apparently, insane, since after looking at the site, I'm coming up with Obama 337, Romney 197. So, sure, let's go with that.

That doesn't add up to 538.


whoops, 341 - 197, sorry about that.

/see? looney tunes
 
2012-11-05 01:19:57 PM  
www.macmeisters.com
 
2012-11-05 01:20:09 PM  
Obama 313 - 50.4
Romney 223 - 48.1
 
2012-11-05 01:20:59 PM  

Outtaphase: Obama 313 - 50.4
Romney 223 - 48.1


That doesn't add up to 538.
 
2012-11-05 01:21:58 PM  
Thread is worthless without Jackson Herring's pic.
 
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