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(The Nation)   Guy with almost perfect track record of picking presidential elections has Virginia down as undecided   (thenation.com) divider line 35
    More: Interesting, Greg Mitchell, Wisconsin State Journal, The Columbus Dispatch, The Tampa Tribune, Upton Sinclair, Toledo Blade, Richmond Times-Dispatch, tricky dick  
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2022 clicks; posted to Politics » on 05 Nov 2012 at 9:17 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-05 08:16:43 AM  
The problem I see with the state polls from national firms, is that they never take into account for third party candidates. Now, we all know a third partier will never make it to the white house until one of the big two self-immolates, but Virgil Goode and Gary Johnson are just crazy enough to pull some of the crazies away in a couple of these states. Virginia, I'm willing to bet, will go Obama because Goode will pull enough rural votes away from Southern Virginia and Northern NC, which are Romney strongholds. Johnson, I can see pulling enough away in NM, CO and possibly AZ to make it either a closer race or an overwhelming victory for Obama.

I just don't know of anyone, even Silver, who factors things like that into their equations.
 
2012-11-05 08:32:17 AM  
Obama: Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Colorado, Michigan
Romney: Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, Florida, Wisconsin
Undecided: Virgina


BTW, how come we don't pronounce Hampshire as Shire, as in the Hobbit?
 
2012-11-05 08:39:21 AM  

hinten: Obama: Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Colorado, Michigan
Romney: Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, Florida, Wisconsin
Undecided: Virgina


BTW, how come we don't pronounce Hampshire as Shire, as in the Hobbit?


I don't agree with you on NC, IA, and NV.
 
2012-11-05 08:40:08 AM  

hinten: BTW, how come we don't pronounce Hampshire as Shire, as in the Hobbit?


Because then you'd get people going "No, you're saying it wrong!"

Sort of the same reason Newark DE (New Ark) and Newark NJ (Nork) are both pronounced differently.
 
2012-11-05 08:52:10 AM  
Keep in mind 1.6 million christians pledged to vote for Jesus .... they never said it would not be Black Jesus
 
2012-11-05 09:21:22 AM  

somedude210: The problem I see with the state polls from national firms, is that they never take into account for third party candidates. Now, we all know a third partier will never make it to the white house until one of the big two self-immolates, but Virgil Goode and Gary Johnson are just crazy enough to pull some of the crazies away in a couple of these states. Virginia, I'm willing to bet, will go Obama because Goode will pull enough rural votes away from Southern Virginia and Northern NC, which are Romney strongholds. Johnson, I can see pulling enough away in NM, CO and possibly AZ to make it either a closer race or an overwhelming victory for Obama.

I just don't know of anyone, even Silver, who factors things like that into their equations.


Obama was already going to win New Mexico anyway, and Gary Johnson won't be enough to stop Romney from winning Arizona. It could make the difference in Colorado, and I bet you're right about Virginia (isn't VA the only state where Goode is on the ballot?).
 
2012-11-05 09:22:07 AM  
If you declare the toss-ups as 'undecided' you aren't really making predictions.
 
2012-11-05 09:22:19 AM  

hinten: BTW, how come we don't pronounce Hampshire as Shire, as in the Hobbit?


French named and occupied it, instead of the British
 
2012-11-05 09:23:15 AM  

somedude210: I don't agree with you on NC, IA, and NV.


What he said. Romney will take NC back, but Obama's got Iowa and Nevada almost locked up.
 
2012-11-05 09:24:16 AM  

hinten: Obama: Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Colorado, Michigan
Romney: Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, Florida, Wisconsin
Undecided: Virgina


BTW, how come we don't pronounce Hampshire as Shire, as in the Hobbit?


Are those your predictions or those of the article? Either way they're terrible.

If Obama is to lose Wisconsin or Nevada, he'll also lose Ohio and North Carolina.

State results do not happen in a vacuum.
 
2012-11-05 09:26:13 AM  

HMS_Blinkin: Obama was already going to win New Mexico anyway, and Gary Johnson won't be enough to stop Romney from winning Arizona. It could make the difference in Colorado, and I bet you're right about Virginia (isn't VA the only state where Goode is on the ballot?)


I think Goode made it to NC too. He really is only known down in those two states.

But I agree that NM was going to Obama anyway, Johnson could just make it more of a win. AZ is just kinda best case scenario for the Johnson campaign. Is there any other states that could have a similar impact from Johnson? I mean he was a popular governor of NM which is why I think he'd have the most effect there, and CO and AZ are probably just feeling the effects from him as governor and know enough about him to want to vote for him. I think we'll see a more regional effect with the third party candidates this time around. nothing like a Nader/Perot national movement though
 
2012-11-05 09:27:42 AM  
No way WI goes for Romney. We hate Mormons.
 
2012-11-05 09:30:10 AM  

hinten: Obama: Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Colorado, Michigan
Romney: Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, Florida, Wisconsin
Undecided: Virgina


BTW, how come we don't pronounce Hampshire as Shire, as in the Hobbit?


Worcestershire.
 
2012-11-05 09:31:46 AM  
I believe VA will go for Obama again, but it will be a narrower margin.
 
2012-11-05 09:31:50 AM  

hinten: Obama: Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Colorado, Michigan
Romney: Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, Florida, Wisconsin
Undecided: Virgina


BTW, how come we don't pronounce Hampshire as Shire, as in the Hobbit?


I'm predicting:

Obama: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Virginia
Romney: Florida (in a very close one), North Carolina

Virginia could go either way. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are not going to be closer then 4pts.
 
2012-11-05 09:32:08 AM  

somedude210: I think Goode made it to NC too. He really is only known down in those two states.

But I agree that NM was going to Obama anyway, Johnson could just make it more of a win. AZ is just kinda best case scenario for the Johnson campaign. Is there any other states that could have a similar impact from Johnson? I mean he was a popular governor of NM which is why I think he'd have the most effect there, and CO and AZ are probably just feeling the effects from him as governor and know enough about him to want to vote for him. I think we'll see a more regional effect with the third party candidates this time around. nothing like a Nader/Perot national movement though


I didn't know Goode was on the ballot in NC. That's interesting. NC will still most likely go for Romney, but that could make NC much tighter, especially if the DNC in Charlotte has any effect. It will be regional with the third-party candidates, and the funny thing is that it all works in Obama's favor. Neither Johnson nor Goode will take votes from Obama, but they'll subtract from Romney in possibly-important states too.

And I also think it's interesting how these things aren't really talked about in the national polls. These are factors that could really make tomorrow night a lot less close than people thought.
 
2012-11-05 09:32:11 AM  
There sure is a lot of 'picking'. You sure they're not just booger mining?

cdn2.maxim.com

Two bucks says he eats it!

George Will's picks are as bogus as he has become.
 
2012-11-05 09:32:22 AM  
Oh, a "perfect track record"... I read that as a perfect rack and was wondering what the hell this was all about.
 
2012-11-05 09:33:03 AM  

guilt by association: I believe VA will go for Obama again, but it will be a narrower margin.


Virgil Goode will help with that too, most likely.
 
2012-11-05 09:36:04 AM  

hinten: Obama: Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Colorado, Michigan
Romney: Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, Florida, Wisconsin
Undecided: Virgina


BTW, how come we don't pronounce Hampshire as Shire, as in the Hobbit?


I'm from NH, and for what its worth I know people who call it the Shire. It helps that its mostly in Cheshire county but still, it happens.
 
2012-11-05 09:39:43 AM  

somedude210: I think Goode made it to NC too. He really is only known down in those two states.


Goode isn't on the NC ballot. Only Romney Obama and Johnson made the ballot.
 
2012-11-05 09:45:15 AM  
Surprised if Wisconsin and Ohio go for Obama. Lots of hard working folks in those states. Not Obama welfare types, that would worship a Food Stamp Messiah.
 
2012-11-05 10:02:01 AM  

somedude210: The problem I see with the state polls from national firms, is that they never take into account for third party candidates. Now, we all know a third partier will never make it to the white house until one of the big two self-immolates, but Virgil Goode and Gary Johnson are just crazy enough to pull some of the crazies away in a couple of these states. Virginia, I'm willing to bet, will go Obama because Goode will pull enough rural votes away from Southern Virginia and Northern NC, which are Romney strongholds. Johnson, I can see pulling enough away in NM, CO and possibly AZ to make it either a closer race or an overwhelming victory for Obama.

I just don't know of anyone, even Silver, who factors things like that into their equations.


Silver adjusts for third party candidates. He has even written an article on it I believe.
 
2012-11-05 10:02:05 AM  

bdub77: somedude210: I think Goode made it to NC too. He really is only known down in those two states.

Goode isn't on the NC ballot. Only Romney Obama and Johnson made the ballot.


Well that's disappointing. I was hoping he'd play spoiler there. How's Johnson doing in NC?

Pick: Surprised if Wisconsin and Ohio go for Obama. Lots of hard working folks in those states. Not Obama welfare types, that would worship a Food Stamp Messiah.


Those hard-working types also know better than to vote for a guy who wanted their livelihood to go bankrupt. But keep trolling

/4/10
 
2012-11-05 10:03:44 AM  

mrshowrules: Silver adjusts for third party candidates. He has even written an article on it I believe.


Well I stand corrected then.
 
2012-11-05 10:19:01 AM  

HMS_Blinkin: Obama was already going to win New Mexico anyway, and Gary Johnson won't be enough to stop Romney from winning Arizona. It could make the difference in Colorado, and I bet you're right about Virginia (isn't VA the only state where Goode is on the ballot?).


Goode is on the ballot in SC, but he's not going to make a difference here.
 
2012-11-05 10:23:05 AM  

hinten: Obama: Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Colorado, Michigan
Romney: Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, Florida, Wisconsin
Undecided: Virgina


BTW, how come we don't pronounce Hampshire as Shire, as in the Hobbit?




Because British English pronounces "shire" as "sher" when it's a suffix, and "shyer" when it's preffix or single world. Hence "Yorkshire" is "york-sher" but "The Shire" is "the shyer".

The 1940s Brit would pronounce Hampshire just like you do, as would homorerotic cross-class love triangled midgets.
 
2012-11-05 10:26:45 AM  

Pick: Surprised if Wisconsin and Ohio go for Obama. Lots of hard working folks in those states. Not Obama welfare types, that would worship a Food Stamp Messiah.


C'mon, you can do better.
 
2012-11-05 10:35:28 AM  

HMS_Blinkin: Obama was already going to win New Mexico anyway, and Gary Johnson won't be enough to stop Romney from winning Arizona. It could make the difference in Colorado, and I bet you're right about Virginia (isn't VA the only state where Goode is on the ballot?).


Sheriff Joe could cost Romney Arizona, he has the Hispanics fired up
 
2012-11-05 10:37:05 AM  

Pick: Surprised if Wisconsin and Ohio go for Obama. Lots of hard working folks in those states. Not Obama welfare types, that would worship a Food Stamp Messiah.



Does't the story of the loaves and fishes suggested that messiahs are always by definition "food stamp messiahs"?
 
2012-11-05 10:58:37 AM  

El_Frijole_Blanco: HMS_Blinkin: Obama was already going to win New Mexico anyway, and Gary Johnson won't be enough to stop Romney from winning Arizona. It could make the difference in Colorado, and I bet you're right about Virginia (isn't VA the only state where Goode is on the ballot?).

Sheriff Joe could cost Romney Arizona, he has the Hispanics fired up


You've got to be able to have your vote counted to change an election.
 
2012-11-05 11:01:52 AM  

Bungles: Pick: Surprised if Wisconsin and Ohio go for Obama. Lots of hard working folks in those states. Not Obama welfare types, that would worship a Food Stamp Messiah.


Does't the story of the loaves and fishes suggested that messiahs are always by definition "food stamp messiahs"?


Both Mathew and John have Jesus collecting the fish and bread first before redistributing it. Seriously.
 
MFL
2012-11-05 11:59:14 AM  
The race will be won in the midwest and will come down to IA, WI and OH. ( My bet is Romney takes all three)

WI = GOP has put together fantastic gound game that has outperformed polling over the last three election cycles. (aka buh bye Russ Feingold , hello Ron Johnson and Scott walker...twice)

IA = Obama is just not very popular in this state anymore. The estate tax being "rolled back" at the end of the year is huge if you own a family farm and Obama has been a fiscal disaster. It will be close but conservative democrats and independents will put Mitt over 50%.

OH = Has gone republican 77% of the time since 1960 and Obama only won there by 4.6% in 2008 which was a "wave" election where the laws of demographics got thrown out the window and his opponents ground game was non existent. Yes O has set up shop there for 4 years, but it won't matter. Obama has done everything he can to lose the Coal industry and rile up the evangelicals. The blue collar whites that he desperately needs in this state are either "meh" towards him or hostile.

You can camp out and campaign for 4 years in a state like Ohio, but if you are a shiatty president it won't matter. This is why the president needs a +11 Democrat sample from CNN to make the race look like a dead heat in their latest poll.

Romney has got this.
 
2012-11-05 12:02:02 PM  

MFL: The race will be won in the midwest and will come down to IA, WI and OH. ( My bet is Romney takes all three)


Not an actual bet. I assume. A symbolic bet with no consequences I am sure.
 
2012-11-05 12:21:13 PM  

palelizard: hinten: Obama: Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Colorado, Michigan
Romney: Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, Florida, Wisconsin
Undecided: Virgina


BTW, how come we don't pronounce Hampshire as Shire, as in the Hobbit?

Worcestershire.


But that's even more different. Pronounced "war-chest-er" - no "shire" at all on the end. Then there's Chestershire, which is pronounced "Chesher."

Damn English.
 
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