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(The New York Times)   How do you know that the Mayans were right? The planets align? Cats and dogs living together? Republicans and Democrats working together for a united America? No? How about if the state and national polls are aligned...for Obama   (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) divider line 10
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1750 clicks; posted to Politics » on 05 Nov 2012 at 11:05 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-05 11:32:35 AM
3 votes:

Parthenogenetic: Rapmaster2000: [static5.businessinsider.com image 400x300]

Nate Silver is a man of very small stature, a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice that sounds almost exactly like the "Mr. New Castrati" voice used by Rush Limbaugh on his program. In fact, Silver could easily be the poster child for the New Castrati in both image and sound. Nate Silver, like most liberal and leftist celebrities and favorites, might be of average intelligence but is surely not the genius he's made out to be. His political analyses are average at best and his projections, at least this year, are extremely biased in favor of the Democrats.

That picture gets weirder every time I see it.

Why is the evergreen tree in sharp focus, but Unskewed Guy blurry?

The lighting of the foreground and background doesn't seem to match either.

But if one were to paste a head-and-shoulders shot onto a background, who would choose THAT one?

o_O


He has unskewed the JPG. Too much fat bias from digital cameras today. It placed undue focus on his second chin, so he unskewed the image using his own algorithm that adds +6 to background pine trees. Making the image more fair and balanced.
2012-11-05 11:44:12 AM
2 votes:
Computer, enhance:

i.imgur.com
2012-11-05 11:24:29 AM
2 votes:

Father_Jack: Rapmaster2000: [static5.businessinsider.com image 400x300]

Nate Silver is a man of very small stature, a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice that sounds almost exactly like the "Mr. New Castrati" voice used by Rush Limbaugh on his program. In fact, Silver could easily be the poster child for the New Castrati in both image and sound. Nate Silver, like most liberal and leftist celebrities and favorites, might be of average intelligence but is surely not the genius he's made out to be. His political analyses are average at best and his projections, at least this year, are extremely biased in favor of the Democrats.

who is that guy? is he the new Fark Libertarian?


That's Dean Chambers of Unskewed Polls. He's been unskewing the polls. Three statisticals.

1. Unskewed polls.
2. MIttmania from Mittmentum leading to Mittdamonium.
3. Romney wins Minnesota.

You guys are gonna be soooo pissed.
2012-11-05 12:52:49 PM
1 votes:
i.imgur.com
2012-11-05 12:31:10 PM
1 votes:

magusdevil: WombatControl: And further, Nate Silver does the exact same thing with 538. His model reweighs the polls too. He just does it based on a much larger set of factors - which introduces more opportunities for error to slip in.

In 2008, he correctly predicted the outcome of the presidential election in 49 of 50 states, and accurately identified the winner in all 35 Senate races.

I guess the errors just didn't take the opportunity to slip in.


And again, for the millionth time predicting the outcome in 2008 was painfully easy - Obama was ahead by nearly 8 points. The only state that was questionable was Indiana - which is the state that Silver got wrong.

Most political predictions are easy. You would have come to the exact same conclusion as Silver if all you had done was used the RCP averages - or a pocket calculator.

Crowing about getting 2008 right is meaningless because 2008 was a blowout election from September on.

That argument for Silver being a political genius does not hold water.
2012-11-05 12:23:24 PM
1 votes:

WombatControl: Dean Chambers has the right idea


www.cdadc.com
2012-11-05 11:56:21 AM
1 votes:

DamnYankees: WombatControl: That scenario is much more likely than Silver thinks.

And you say this based on...what?


Early voting figures for one.

Obama needs certain margins with early voters in key states to win - even in 2008 Election Day voters leaned Republican. The President is not pulling those margins right now. What we are seeing consistently is less early voters in Obama's column in key states like Iowa, Virginia, Colorado, and Ohio.

All the polls assume a 2008-level turnout for Obama or bigger. But we can test that hypothesis against actual numbers now. And the actual numbers don't support that.

Now, Obama could lose a good chunk of how 2008 support and still win. If it's a D+4 race instead of a D+7 race, Obama still wins. But if it's so much as an R+1 race, Obama is less than a 50% favorite in the Electoral College - by Silver's own data.

R+1 is well within the historical error range of national polls.
2012-11-05 11:26:59 AM
1 votes:

WombatControl: BlueJay206: So CNN shows a tied race, while sampling D+11

this is obviously bad news...for Obama

Exactly.

So Silver takes a set of polls he admits have generally leaned towards Obama, looks only at the toplines, and concludes Obama is a favorite to win.

He's right about the correlation between the national popular vote and the Electoral College (something I note that many Fark Liberals™ didn't exist) - but that correlation says that if Romney can win by 1% or more in the popular vote, he's favored to win 270+ EVs and the Presidency.

That scenario is much more likely than Silver thinks.

(And as an aside, there was an article really hitting Silver hard based on his baseball prediction software - but I cannot for the life of me find it again. It gives a whole new perspective on how Silver operates...)


Dean Chambers is still not going to sleep with you.
2012-11-05 11:14:54 AM
1 votes:
static5.businessinsider.com

Nate Silver is a man of very small stature, a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice that sounds almost exactly like the "Mr. New Castrati" voice used by Rush Limbaugh on his program. In fact, Silver could easily be the poster child for the New Castrati in both image and sound. Nate Silver, like most liberal and leftist celebrities and favorites, might be of average intelligence but is surely not the genius he's made out to be. His political analyses are average at best and his projections, at least this year, are extremely biased in favor of the Democrats.
2012-11-05 11:07:43 AM
1 votes:
So, what is actually happening today is that the admins are going to greenlight every political submission.

The solution to pollution is dilution?

Flood the herp with the derp?
 
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