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(The New York Times)   How do you know that the Mayans were right? The planets align? Cats and dogs living together? Republicans and Democrats working together for a united America? No? How about if the state and national polls are aligned...for Obama   (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) divider line 5
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1750 clicks; posted to Politics » on 05 Nov 2012 at 11:05 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-05 04:13:00 PM
1 votes:

WombatControl: 1. Bimodal distributions in polling, when the results should be normally distributed.


Why should the results be normally distributed? Were they so in 2004 and 2008?

WombatControl: 2. Early voting not showing the big D turnout the polls are indicating.


How so? Dems have an advantage in Ohio and Va in early voting.

WombatControl: 3. Discrepancies in the state polls versus the national polls - which despite Silver's argument still exist.


How so? Rasmussen even has the national polls tied. How does that show a discrepancy? Romney could have a bigger lead in his "safe" states than Obama does. Doesn't mean there's a discrepancy. Please show your work.
2012-11-05 12:57:22 PM
1 votes:

WombatControl: All the polls assume a 2008-level turnout for Obama or bigger. But we can test that hypothesis against actual numbers now. And the actual numbers don't support that.


All the polls assume that people will actually be allowed to vote. But the Republican suppress the vote efforts are working so the numbers are much lower than 2008. People having to stand in line for over 8 hours to cast their votes, that's the new reality, and guys like WombatControl couldn't be prouder.
2012-11-05 12:45:26 PM
1 votes:

WombatControl: DamnYankees: WombatControl: That scenario is much more likely than Silver thinks.


Fine. Great. Listen, make your prediction. You think Romney is going to win, really? Then nut up and say so. You think the majority of Electoral Votes are going to Romney, then state your number. Will Romney get 271? 290? 303? Make your prediction and I'll make a note in the election night thread, along with all the predictions from the people who are not hiding behind a fake name on the internet. Proceed, Wombat. Then, the glory will be all yours if Romney pulls off a win. Go for it.
2012-11-05 11:26:59 AM
1 votes:

WombatControl: BlueJay206: So CNN shows a tied race, while sampling D+11

this is obviously bad news...for Obama

Exactly.

So Silver takes a set of polls he admits have generally leaned towards Obama, looks only at the toplines, and concludes Obama is a favorite to win.

He's right about the correlation between the national popular vote and the Electoral College (something I note that many Fark Liberals™ didn't exist) - but that correlation says that if Romney can win by 1% or more in the popular vote, he's favored to win 270+ EVs and the Presidency.

That scenario is much more likely than Silver thinks.

(And as an aside, there was an article really hitting Silver hard based on his baseball prediction software - but I cannot for the life of me find it again. It gives a whole new perspective on how Silver operates...)


Dean Chambers is still not going to sleep with you.
2012-11-05 11:24:19 AM
1 votes:
Reality for the next 36 hours, Farkers:

Every polling thread until 11 pm EST Nov. 6 will be hijacked by morons who dispute everything the EXPERTS say. If you were an expert, WC, you'd be getting paid for your "thoughts".

So everyone... Deal with it.

Ignore early, ignore often.
 
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