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(The New York Times)   How do you know that the Mayans were right? The planets align? Cats and dogs living together? Republicans and Democrats working together for a united America? No? How about if the state and national polls are aligned...for Obama   (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) divider line 98
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1750 clicks; posted to Politics » on 05 Nov 2012 at 11:05 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-05 11:06:33 AM
Really? National polling shows that Obama has a considerable lead? Because that is what is being shown in the swing states.
 
2012-11-05 11:07:07 AM
He's not going to win. He can't, damn it. I WANT a job in an oil field ferchrissakes...
 
2012-11-05 11:07:26 AM
Waiting for a Fark Con to show their Derp model disputing the article.
 
2012-11-05 11:07:43 AM
So, what is actually happening today is that the admins are going to greenlight every political submission.

The solution to pollution is dilution?

Flood the herp with the derp?
 
2012-11-05 11:08:58 AM
i.imgur.com
 
2012-11-05 11:10:26 AM

Shadow Blasko: So, what is actually happening today is that the admins are going to greenlight every political submission.

The solution to pollution is dilution?

Flood the herp with the derp?


Not all, I had 3 of my submissions rejected.

/got 9 total today though
//new daily record
///I love fark in election season
 
2012-11-05 11:10:45 AM
So CNN shows a tied race, while sampling D+11

this is obviously bad news...for Obama
 
2012-11-05 11:11:48 AM
i.imgur.com
 
2012-11-05 11:13:03 AM

BlueJay206: So CNN shows a tied race, while sampling D+11

this is obviously bad news...for Obama


And your response to "every other poll"?
 
2012-11-05 11:13:22 AM

BlueJay206: So CNN shows a tied race, while sampling D+11

this is obviously bad news...for Obama


Yes, the obvious solution would be to sample Dems and Republicans equally, because that's obviously how they vote.

/know how I know you don't understand party identification?
 
2012-11-05 11:14:14 AM
Mitt Romney accused of profiteering during Auto Bailout?

http://act.watchdog.net/petitions/1818

Is this for real?
 
2012-11-05 11:14:44 AM
Still not totally comfy. They need to call VA relatively soon for me to be happy.
 
2012-11-05 11:14:54 AM
static5.businessinsider.com

Nate Silver is a man of very small stature, a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice that sounds almost exactly like the "Mr. New Castrati" voice used by Rush Limbaugh on his program. In fact, Silver could easily be the poster child for the New Castrati in both image and sound. Nate Silver, like most liberal and leftist celebrities and favorites, might be of average intelligence but is surely not the genius he's made out to be. His political analyses are average at best and his projections, at least this year, are extremely biased in favor of the Democrats.
 
2012-11-05 11:15:23 AM
How do you know that the Mayans were right? The planets align?

24.media.tumblr.com
 
2012-11-05 11:15:48 AM
www.rasmussenreports.com
 
2012-11-05 11:16:08 AM

NateGrey: Waiting for a Fark Con to show their Derp model disputing the article.


latimesherocomplex.files.wordpress.com
 
2012-11-05 11:18:19 AM
The flowers are still standing!
 
2012-11-05 11:19:02 AM
The ol' Rasmussen double back. Try to keep the GOP momentum going during the run up, but start changing your prediction a day or two before the event so you can claim you were "right" all along.
 
2012-11-05 11:19:21 AM

whidbey: He's not going to win. He can't, damn it. I WANT a job in an oil field ferchrissakes...


Don't you mean coal mine? Oil production has gone up in the US under Obama.
 
2012-11-05 11:19:44 AM

lexslamman: Mitt Romney accused of profiteering during Auto Bailout?

http://act.watchdog.net/petitions/1818

Is this for real?


That CREW and the UAW have any authority to "charge" anyone with a felony? No.
They, and others have accused/suggested, yes.
 
2012-11-05 11:20:50 AM

BlueJay206: So CNN shows a tied race, while sampling D+11

this is obviously bad news...for Obama


Exactly.

So Silver takes a set of polls he admits have generally leaned towards Obama, looks only at the toplines, and concludes Obama is a favorite to win.

He's right about the correlation between the national popular vote and the Electoral College (something I note that many Fark Liberals™ didn't exist) - but that correlation says that if Romney can win by 1% or more in the popular vote, he's favored to win 270+ EVs and the Presidency.

That scenario is much more likely than Silver thinks.

(And as an aside, there was an article really hitting Silver hard based on his baseball prediction software - but I cannot for the life of me find it again. It gives a whole new perspective on how Silver operates...)
 
2012-11-05 11:21:27 AM

WombatControl: That scenario is much more likely than Silver thinks.


And you say this based on...what?
 
2012-11-05 11:22:17 AM

Rapmaster2000: [static5.businessinsider.com image 400x300]

Nate Silver is a man of very small stature, a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice that sounds almost exactly like the "Mr. New Castrati" voice used by Rush Limbaugh on his program. In fact, Silver could easily be the poster child for the New Castrati in both image and sound. Nate Silver, like most liberal and leftist celebrities and favorites, might be of average intelligence but is surely not the genius he's made out to be. His political analyses are average at best and his projections, at least this year, are extremely biased in favor of the Democrats.


who is that guy? is he the new Fark Libertarian?
 
2012-11-05 11:22:22 AM

WombatControl: So Silver takes a set of polls he admits have generally leaned towards Obama


Rasmussen has "generally leaned toward Obama"

Please excuse me while I go laugh my head off.
 
2012-11-05 11:24:19 AM
Reality for the next 36 hours, Farkers:

Every polling thread until 11 pm EST Nov. 6 will be hijacked by morons who dispute everything the EXPERTS say. If you were an expert, WC, you'd be getting paid for your "thoughts".

So everyone... Deal with it.

Ignore early, ignore often.
 
2012-11-05 11:24:29 AM

Father_Jack: Rapmaster2000: [static5.businessinsider.com image 400x300]

Nate Silver is a man of very small stature, a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice that sounds almost exactly like the "Mr. New Castrati" voice used by Rush Limbaugh on his program. In fact, Silver could easily be the poster child for the New Castrati in both image and sound. Nate Silver, like most liberal and leftist celebrities and favorites, might be of average intelligence but is surely not the genius he's made out to be. His political analyses are average at best and his projections, at least this year, are extremely biased in favor of the Democrats.

who is that guy? is he the new Fark Libertarian?


That's Dean Chambers of Unskewed Polls. He's been unskewing the polls. Three statisticals.

1. Unskewed polls.
2. MIttmania from Mittmentum leading to Mittdamonium.
3. Romney wins Minnesota.

You guys are gonna be soooo pissed.
 
2012-11-05 11:25:15 AM

cameroncrazy1984: WombatControl: So Silver takes a set of polls he admits have generally leaned towards Obama

Rasmussen has "generally leaned toward Obama"

Please excuse me while I go laugh my head off.


yeah I am with WombatControl here, why doesn't Gay Silver use unskewedpolls for his models, also do his limp wristed calculations take in to account our efforts to suppress you libs from voting? We are taking it to the house tomorrow! USA!USA!USA!
 
2012-11-05 11:25:32 AM

Rapmaster2000: [static5.businessinsider.com image 400x300]

Nate Silver is a man of very small stature, a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice that sounds almost exactly like the "Mr. New Castrati" voice used by Rush Limbaugh on his program. In fact, Silver could easily be the poster child for the New Castrati in both image and sound. Nate Silver, like most liberal and leftist celebrities and favorites, might be of average intelligence but is surely not the genius he's made out to be. His political analyses are average at best and his projections, at least this year, are extremely biased in favor of the Democrats.


That picture gets weirder every time I see it.

Why is the evergreen tree in sharp focus, but Unskewed Guy blurry?

The lighting of the foreground and background doesn't seem to match either.

But if one were to paste a head-and-shoulders shot onto a background, who would choose THAT one?

o_O
 
2012-11-05 11:26:21 AM
In Ohio, we can't wait for this to be over. The calls, the ads... I voted last month, and it just keeps coming. Poll calls 2-3 times a day. Sucks to be THE state.
 
2012-11-05 11:26:52 AM

OdradekRex: In Ohio, we can't wait for this to be over. The calls, the ads... I voted last month, and it just keeps coming. Poll calls 2-3 times a day. Sucks to be THE state.


I wonder how many people have been polled this election cycle, in total.
 
2012-11-05 11:26:59 AM

WombatControl: BlueJay206: So CNN shows a tied race, while sampling D+11

this is obviously bad news...for Obama

Exactly.

So Silver takes a set of polls he admits have generally leaned towards Obama, looks only at the toplines, and concludes Obama is a favorite to win.

He's right about the correlation between the national popular vote and the Electoral College (something I note that many Fark Liberals™ didn't exist) - but that correlation says that if Romney can win by 1% or more in the popular vote, he's favored to win 270+ EVs and the Presidency.

That scenario is much more likely than Silver thinks.

(And as an aside, there was an article really hitting Silver hard based on his baseball prediction software - but I cannot for the life of me find it again. It gives a whole new perspective on how Silver operates...)


Dean Chambers is still not going to sleep with you.
 
2012-11-05 11:27:00 AM
Funny how all the polling firms magically converge on the "right" number on election day, but wildly differ when their results are unverifiable. Almost like they aren't being totally honest
 
2012-11-05 11:27:17 AM

wambu: [i.imgur.com image 850x571]


So what you're trying to say in that amateurishly malformed image, and I do hope I'm getting this right, is "both sides are bad."

Does this have any implications as to which party I should therefore support?
 
2012-11-05 11:28:15 AM

Rapmaster2000: Father_Jack: Rapmaster2000: [static5.businessinsider.com image 400x300]

Nate Silver is a man of very small stature, a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice that sounds almost exactly like the "Mr. New Castrati" voice used by Rush Limbaugh on his program. In fact, Silver could easily be the poster child for the New Castrati in both image and sound. Nate Silver, like most liberal and leftist celebrities and favorites, might be of average intelligence but is surely not the genius he's made out to be. His political analyses are average at best and his projections, at least this year, are extremely biased in favor of the Democrats.

who is that guy? is he the new Fark Libertarian?

That's Dean Chambers of Unskewed Polls. He's been unskewing the polls. Three statisticals.

1. Unskewed polls.
2. MIttmania from Mittmentum leading to Mittdamonium.
3. Romney wins Minnesota.

You guys are gonna be soooo pissed.


THATS the "unskewed" Farktard?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAAHAHAHAHAHHAAAAAA

thank you for that! he's perfect. it all makes sense now.

he looks like ... i would expect a guy who runs a site like that to look.

you can almost picture what his car and house look like. bet hes a closet brony too.
 
2012-11-05 11:28:34 AM

DamnYankees: OdradekRex: In Ohio, we can't wait for this to be over. The calls, the ads... I voted last month, and it just keeps coming. Poll calls 2-3 times a day. Sucks to be THE state.

I wonder how many people have been polled this election cycle, in total.


I don't know. I tell them by way of disclaimer that I always lie to pollsters. Half of them hang up, half keep going. Makes me question all polls.
 
2012-11-05 11:28:54 AM

whidbey: He's not going to win. He can't, damn it. I WANT a job in an oil field ferchrissakes...


Extraction and refinery operations have increased steadily. It's not the president's fault if you can't find a job in the oil industry.
 
2012-11-05 11:29:13 AM

BKITU: wambu: [i.imgur.com image 850x571]

So what you're trying to say in that amateurishly malformed image, and I do hope I'm getting this right, is "both sides are bad."

Does this have any implications as to which party I should therefore support?


Whatever one helps the economic interests of your employer, of course.

Something something goose, gander.
 
2012-11-05 11:29:43 AM

DamnYankees: OdradekRex: In Ohio, we can't wait for this to be over. The calls, the ads... I voted last month, and it just keeps coming. Poll calls 2-3 times a day. Sucks to be THE state.

I wonder how many people have been polled this election cycle, in total.


not as many as how many times your mom got poled last night.
 
2012-11-05 11:29:50 AM
Watching FOX news at work has me looking for my tinfoil hat, seems like they are sure Mitt is going to pull out a victory and the only thing I can see from all the real polls would be actual voter tampering...
 
2012-11-05 11:30:49 AM
Oh No! An incumbent president wins! It's not like it happens MOST OF THE GODDAMN TIME!
 
2012-11-05 11:31:02 AM

protectyourlimbs: Watching FOX news at work has me looking for my tinfoil hat, seems like they are sure Mitt is going to pull out a victory and the only thing I can see from all the real polls would be actual voter tampering...


WALNUT and PECAN had better go into hiding now. O'Queef will be gunning for them on 11/7.
 
2012-11-05 11:32:35 AM

Parthenogenetic: Rapmaster2000: [static5.businessinsider.com image 400x300]

Nate Silver is a man of very small stature, a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice that sounds almost exactly like the "Mr. New Castrati" voice used by Rush Limbaugh on his program. In fact, Silver could easily be the poster child for the New Castrati in both image and sound. Nate Silver, like most liberal and leftist celebrities and favorites, might be of average intelligence but is surely not the genius he's made out to be. His political analyses are average at best and his projections, at least this year, are extremely biased in favor of the Democrats.

That picture gets weirder every time I see it.

Why is the evergreen tree in sharp focus, but Unskewed Guy blurry?

The lighting of the foreground and background doesn't seem to match either.

But if one were to paste a head-and-shoulders shot onto a background, who would choose THAT one?

o_O


He has unskewed the JPG. Too much fat bias from digital cameras today. It placed undue focus on his second chin, so he unskewed the image using his own algorithm that adds +6 to background pine trees. Making the image more fair and balanced.
 
2012-11-05 11:33:19 AM
cdn.crooksandliars.com
This could be bad... for Obama.
 
2012-11-05 11:33:44 AM

whidbey: He's not going to win. He can't, damn it. I WANT a job in an oil field ferchrissakes...


There's plenty of them right NOW.
 
2012-11-05 11:34:21 AM

coeyagi: BKITU: wambu: [i.imgur.com image 850x571]

So what you're trying to say in that amateurishly malformed image, and I do hope I'm getting this right, is "both sides are bad."

Does this have any implications as to which party I should therefore support?

Whatever one helps the economic interests of your employer, of course.

Something something goose, gander.


So if there is less food to go around at a table, and you let the goose keep more of it, that is also good for the gander how?
 
2012-11-05 11:35:20 AM

ZangTT: lexslamman: Mitt Romney accused of profiteering during Auto Bailout?

http://act.watchdog.net/petitions/1818

Is this for real?

That CREW and the UAW have any authority to "charge" anyone with a felony? No.
They, and others have accused/suggested, yes.


Technically not illegal just slimy...
 
2012-11-05 11:36:28 AM

protectyourlimbs: coeyagi: BKITU: wambu: [i.imgur.com image 850x571]

So what you're trying to say in that amateurishly malformed image, and I do hope I'm getting this right, is "both sides are bad."

Does this have any implications as to which party I should therefore support?

Whatever one helps the economic interests of your employer, of course.

Something something goose, gander.

So if there is less food to go around at a table, and you let the goose keep more of it, that is also good for the gander how?


It isn't. Just parroting Romney, certainly not agreeing with that douche.
 
2012-11-05 11:38:08 AM

Counter_Intelligent: whidbey: He's not going to win. He can't, damn it. I WANT a job in an oil field ferchrissakes...

Extraction and refinery operations have increased steadily. It's not the president's fault if you can't find a job in the oil industry.


ghare: whidbey: He's not going to win. He can't, damn it. I WANT a job in an oil field ferchrissakes...

There's plenty of them right NOW.


Jebus... skookum has been a-moldering in the grave for years now, and he still gets bites. Very nice.
 
2012-11-05 11:40:38 AM

whidbey: He's not going to win. He can't, damn it. I WANT a job in an oil field ferchrissakes...


There will be plenty of oil field jobs, no matter who wins.

/You can fracking count on it
 
2012-11-05 11:42:25 AM

BKITU: Counter_Intelligent: whidbey: He's not going to win. He can't, damn it. I WANT a job in an oil field ferchrissakes...

Extraction and refinery operations have increased steadily. It's not the president's fault if you can't find a job in the oil industry.

ghare: whidbey: He's not going to win. He can't, damn it. I WANT a job in an oil field ferchrissakes...

There's plenty of them right NOW.

Jebus... skookum has been a-moldering in the grave for years now, and he still gets bites. Very nice.


On 9/11 I had a view of Logan airport out of my office window. That's why I'm voting for Romney.
 
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