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(The Raw Story)   Fox News senior political analyst Brit Hume is 'puzzled' by these strange polls from battleground states showing a persistent lead for Obama. How could this have happened?   (rawstory.com) divider line 348
    More: Obvious, Brit Hume, Fox News, obama, swing states, political analyst  
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5731 clicks; posted to Politics » on 04 Nov 2012 at 6:05 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-04 11:12:03 PM

wotthefark: Pulse Opinion Research

More like Poor Opinion Research


Amirite??


How about Pure Opinion Research...
 
2012-11-04 11:12:54 PM

Great_Milenko: Wednesday is going to be a rough day.

The thing is, the modern conservative movement has never had to acknowledge an out-and-out loss. They've been winning since the 1994 takeover of the House of Representatives. Yes, they lost the 96 presidential election, but they exacted their revenge on a president who should have known better, and that made it all better. The vitriol helped solidify their base. Progress was still being made. In 2000, all their dreams came true, and later, those dreams turned into fever dream fantasies as they gained control of the entire congress. They had political capital and by gum they were going to spend it. And by effectively crippling the senate through the filibuster, they don't even need to have a majority to run things, thanks to spineless Democrats who will never reach a supermajority.

What's that? They lost the White House in 2000? Well, yes, but they've been able to justify that in their minds. They live in a carefully constructed fantasy world where Obama was just a fluke, a bump in the road caused by bad timing, good marketing, mad telepromter skillz, and a wave of misplaced enthusiasm. But after four years of this guy, there's simply no way people will want to reelect him, especially not after the way they've roughed him up. The final victory should be at hand. But if Obama is reelected, two things that they simply can't process will have happened; people actually think he's doing a decent job, and people aren't agreeing with them.

Remember, the unofficial motto of the republican party is, "I can't believe that everyone in the world doesn't think exactly like me." They can no more understand it than a caveman could understand an iPad.


Nah, that was 2008.

The Republicans thought they had it and that Dubya wasn't going to sink them. They still had the Silent Majority, still had their finger on the pulse of what REAL Americans thought. And as soon as it hit 11PM EST, they started screaming because they had to face reality: not only did Dubya lose, he broke the white-only label on the presidency. Dubya failed so hard he took down the racial rulebook that most Republicans live by.

2010 encouraged them because, to them, it gave them hope that maybe Obama was a fluke. Sure, Dubya was a failure, but he no longer counted because they said so. They were really the ones in charge, the ones with power, and that was going to fix the 'mistake' of 2008. They ignored that their actions cost them the Senate (and with that, their way to impeach the Democrat for existing) and were so in love with being 'back on top' that they pretended that they were totally back in power again. And overstepped right off a farking cliff.

2012 will cement their fears about 2008. Making Obama a one-term president is a big deal, but they'll shrug it off like they always do when something doesn't go completely their way. Obama's second term will turn them into foaming hate machines, just as they really want. They can't stand Romney and did nothing right up until the first debate, but this loss will destroy their morale. Sure, they'll foam and get even angrier and start screeching for their elected officials to call Obama a racial slur, but it will be the screaming of the castrated sadsacks whose time is finally up.
 
2012-11-04 11:13:09 PM

Skleenar: Modern Conservatism is a Con game played against the base.


~Ya think?~
 
2012-11-04 11:15:28 PM

DamnYankees: Smeggy Smurf: November 3, 1980 the polls had Carter winning. Reagan won with 489. 2012 is imitating 1980 in economy, gas prices, shortages and a middle east in turmoil. History repeats itself with regularity when people don't learn from it.

[themonkeycage.org image 850x617]


Interesting graph, but it notes that it includes private campaign polls. Those poll results would not have been known to the public at the time, just as we don't know what the O and R campaigns' polls are telling them.

What were the _public_ polls saying in the last couple days before Reagan's landslide? Anybody know?
 
2012-11-04 11:16:56 PM

DeltaPunch: Maybe you libs should look a little more closely at the 3 options listed in TFA:

1) The polls are all wrong
2) Romney's ground game will turn out enough votes to make up the difference
3) Obama will win

As you can clearly see, 2 of these 3 options result in a Romney victory, which naturally means Romney has 66% chance of winning. Therefore, even if the polls were skewed 16% towards Obama -- unlikely, despite the lamestream media bias -- Romney can still safely win above 50%. It's just basic subtraction here, folks. AND, if the polls aren't biased at all, then it won't just be a Romney victory but a land-slide man-date for conservatives. You libs are gonna be sooo pissed.


I like this tremendously. This in a nutshell has been the election cycle on Fox News. It's weird, if you capture a segment of the population and can keep them in your bubble, what a job it is to let them in on what the rest of the world has been doing for the last few months. The trend in conservative reporting seems to be shifting blame on Sandy and that Obama, the jerk he is, helped people and responded presidentially, thus erasing the 4 year record of burning churches and insulting elderly women. What a world.
 
2012-11-04 11:23:21 PM

Lionel Mandrake: spongeboob: How is the polling for Ryan's house seat my google-fu is weak tonight.

I couldn't find any polls, but his election record is pretty consistent: he wins reelection every time by a large margin (with 60-68% of the vote). Sounds like his district is pretty solidly Republican. I imagine it would be a lot easier to find news about the race if it were at all close.


I guess we can't expect to win every race.
 
2012-11-04 11:24:32 PM
The polls are faked: Virgil Goode wins in a landslide.
 
2012-11-04 11:30:35 PM
The fact that Tagg or Tripp or Bapp or one of the Rmoney sons is part owner of the company


haahahahaahahhahahahahaa
 
2012-11-04 11:31:17 PM

shower_in_my_socks: Thigvald the Big-Balled: When the hell did WI get so close?


robsul82 made the mistake of only grabbing one or two polls per state, and from only two pollsters. Obama is up over 4 points in WI on average right now.


Good to know.

Won't stop me from drinking my nerves away Tuesday, but still good to know.
 
2012-11-04 11:31:37 PM

Lligeret: Mrtraveler01: eddiesocket: It's weird how the north is almost always more liberal than the south, pretty much everywhere.

Florida is the only exception to this rule.


Not really heavy population centers traditionally lean liberal. The northeast you have a lot of large cities, then further northeast you have all the city people that wanted to get away from the city. The midwest (northern portion) you have large cities surrounded by rural areas so you end up with blue islands in a red sea (Wisconsin for example typically looks all red, except for Madison, Milwaukee, and the college towns, then the rest is red). It is similar in the south however not quite to that extent due to history. Florida is farked up because old people all retire there whether they lean left or right. The west coast you have all the hippies so they go blue, although again once you hit rural sections for it it is pretty red.


To elaborate on the bolded part: here in California, the most heavily populated areas (especially Los Angeles and the Bay Area) are deep blue, but once you get into less densely-populated areas (especially south of San Diego and north of Humboldt) it turns red quickly, and the rednecks and Teahadis become very well-represented. Overall, however, the state remains deep blue because the red areas are so sparsely populated.

I'm not as familiar with Washington politics, but in Oregon, I've noticed that the state tends to be pretty blue to the west of Crater Lake and Mount Hood, and pretty red to the east. As a result, Oregon was considered a swing state as recently as 2004.
 
2012-11-04 11:35:53 PM

anfrind: south of San Diego


Mexico?
 
2012-11-04 11:36:28 PM

wotthefark: Pulse Opinion Research

More like Poor Opinion Research


Amirite??


IIRC from 538, Pulse Opinion Research is the same as Rasmussen, just under a different name.
 
2012-11-04 11:40:17 PM

anfrind: Lligeret: Mrtraveler01: eddiesocket: It's weird how the north is almost always more liberal than the south, pretty much everywhere.

Florida is the only exception to this rule.


Not really heavy population centers traditionally lean liberal. The northeast you have a lot of large cities, then further northeast you have all the city people that wanted to get away from the city. The midwest (northern portion) you have large cities surrounded by rural areas so you end up with blue islands in a red sea (Wisconsin for example typically looks all red, except for Madison, Milwaukee, and the college towns, then the rest is red). It is similar in the south however not quite to that extent due to history. Florida is farked up because old people all retire there whether they lean left or right. The west coast you have all the hippies so they go blue, although again once you hit rural sections for it it is pretty red.

To elaborate on the bolded part: here in California, the most heavily populated areas (especially Los Angeles and the Bay Area) are deep blue, but once you get into less densely-populated areas (especially south of San Diego and north of Humboldt) it turns red quickly, and the rednecks and Teahadis become very well-represented. Overall, however, the state remains deep blue because the red areas are so sparsely populated.

I'm not as familiar with Washington politics, but in Oregon, I've noticed that the state tends to be pretty blue to the west of Crater Lake and Mount Hood, and pretty red to the east. As a result, Oregon was considered a swing state as recently as 2004.


WA is the same way. East of the cascades is all red. Although WA-8 keeps re-electing repubs due to the combination of affluent suburban areas, exurban communities, and a sizable Mormon population much like Illinois's 10th congressional district or Connecticut's 4th congressional district in terms of voting patterns.

Sorry my district gave you this douche.

www.nationaljournal.com
 
2012-11-04 11:41:18 PM

Doc Daneeka: wotthefark: Pulse Opinion Research

More like Poor Opinion Research


Amirite??

IIRC from 538, Pulse Opinion Research is the same as Rasmussen, just under a different name.


POOP Orifice Research

Amirite.
 
2012-11-04 11:53:05 PM

DamnYankees: anfrind: south of San Diego

Mexico?


I was actually thinking of the Escondido area (where my grandparents lived until about 15 years ago), but after checking Google Maps I realized that it's between Los Angeles and San Diego. Oops.

/no reason for me to visit Escondido now that I don't have family living there
 
2012-11-04 11:57:30 PM
Brit Hume looks so tired and sad in that picture. I hope he cries Tuesday night.
 
2012-11-05 12:00:17 AM

FuturePastNow: Brit Hume looks so tired and sad in that picture. I hope he cries poops Tuesday night.

 
2012-11-05 12:03:07 AM

whidbey: FuturePastNow: Brit Hume looks so tired and sad in that picture. I hope he cries poops Tuesday night.


He does look like he needs some fleet. I'm sure Megyn Kelly can hook him up.
 
2012-11-05 12:05:17 AM

shower_in_my_socks: Smeggy Smurf: November 3, 1980 the polls had Carter winning. Reagan won with 489. 2012 is imitating 1980 in economy, gas prices, shortages and a middle east in turmoil. History repeats itself with regularity when people don't learn from it.


Polls are a hell of a lot more accurate now than they were in 1980, so that's a laughable talking point. State polls were practically brand new at that time, and they were shiatty. But if you want to hang your hat on that flimsy comparison to get you through the next 36 hours, that's cool, I guess.


It's also a lie. Carter was below Reagan from before the national conventions.
 
2012-11-05 12:07:46 AM

randomjsa: I'm not puzzled at all.

As stated, if the media and the entertainment industry hadn't been covering for this presidentthe GOP for the last four years, he wouldn't even be running for office and the Democrats would be trying to figure out a way to tell you they have some great ideas if you'll just elect this other guy.they wouldn't even be a national party anymore, and their players would have jumped ship to the LP.


Fixed.
 
2012-11-05 12:34:11 AM
Don't lie, some of you super liberals actually thought there was a chance BO would lose as recently as a week ago.

There was never any question. Not yesterday, not a week ago, not a month ago, not four years ago. Math can't lie. Don't listen to the news, they're not in the business of disseminating facts. Once upon a time they were, but no longer.

The more fun part now is, do the Republicans have a snowball's chance in 2016, regardless of who the candidates are? I think we'll save the predictions until the the election day thread.
 
2012-11-05 12:34:15 AM

Surool: Fox: You've been making sh*t up against Obama and lying campaigning for Mitt Romney 24/7 since he became the presumptive nominee... What did you do wrong? You colossal f*ck ups!


Oh darn. They accidentally got the result that leads to more profit. Heck!
 
2012-11-05 12:46:27 AM
imgs.xkcd.com
 
2012-11-05 12:48:54 AM

justtray: Don't lie, some of you super liberals actually thought there was a chance BO would lose as recently as a week ago.


People got a bit jittery when it looked as if the American public had gone insane or something. Understandable
 
2012-11-05 01:10:10 AM

rynthetyn: Yeah. And Rick Scott and the Florida Republicans deliberately changed early voting so that it ended the Saturday before the election to minimize turnout by black voters who historically would carpool to go vote after church on Sunday.


This will backfire. The Republicans don't seem to appreciate the fact that America is a Christian nation, and that we will not vote for a party that is so blatantly anti-Christian.
 
2012-11-05 01:19:57 AM

TheBigJerk: randomjsa: I'm not puzzled at all.

As stated, if the media and the entertainment industry hadn't been covering for this president the GOP for the last four years, he wouldn't even be running for office and the Democrats would be trying to figure out a way to tell you they have some great ideas if you'll just elect this other guy.they wouldn't even be a national party anymore, and their players would have jumped ship to the LP Peter Pinguid Society..

Fixed.


Improved.

/Fallopian 2016!
 
2012-11-05 01:21:39 AM
Elizabeth Warren: 2016
 
2012-11-05 01:24:51 AM

coeyagi: Phins: Altitude5280: The Freeper threads on the polls are quite amusing.

They're going to have some sort of psychotic break when Obama wins. They isolate themselves in a right wing media bubble where they only hear news that says what they want to hear. They truly believe Romney is ahead in all the polls. How are they going to react when reality breaks through?

Second amendment solutions tempered with religion and bitterness. Oh, and bigotry, can't forget that.


"WHY DO AMERICAN VOTERS HATE AMERICA?"
 
2012-11-05 01:30:19 AM

netringer: WHY DO AMERICAN VOTERS HATE AMERICA?"


Because the "good" America costs too much.

While the shiatty America does have its incredible downsides, cheap land, labor and goods are favorable offsets.
 
2012-11-05 02:06:15 AM

whidbey: netringer: WHY DO AMERICAN VOTERS HATE AMERICA?"

Because the "good" America costs too much.

While the shiatty America does have its incredible downsides, cheap land, labor and goods are favorable offsets.


Sounds kind of like China.
 
2012-11-05 02:16:14 AM

Cornelius Dribble: TheBigJerk: randomjsa: I'm not puzzled at all.

As stated, if the media and the entertainment industry hadn't been covering for this president the GOP for the last four years, he wouldn't even be running for office and the Democrats would be trying to figure out a way to tell you they have some great ideas if you'll just elect this other guy.they wouldn't even be a national party anymore, and their players would have jumped ship to the LP Peter Pinguid Society..

Fixed.

Improved.

/Fallopian 2016!


I don't get it.

Possibly because I've been up too long.
 
2012-11-05 02:48:39 AM
I believe Brit Hume is puzzled by shoelaces and roller coasters.
 
2012-11-05 02:50:38 AM

Cornelius Dribble: rynthetyn: Yeah. And Rick Scott and the Florida Republicans deliberately changed early voting so that it ended the Saturday before the election to minimize turnout by black voters who historically would carpool to go vote after church on Sunday.

This will backfire. The Republicans don't seem to appreciate the fact that America is a Christian nation, and that we will not vote for a party that is so blatantly anti-Christian.


Oh, it's definitely going to backfire. People were making sure to early vote just to stick it to Rick Scott. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if in the end Rick Scott accidentally delivered the state to Obama just because his suppression efforts were so obvious and hamfisted. Nate Silver's forecast still has Florida as a slight Romney lead, but I don't think Florida's polling is picking up just how much the hate-Rick-Scott factor is motivating turnout.
 
2012-11-05 02:57:26 AM

quatchi: Fox News senior political analyst Brit Hume is saying that it's "puzzling" that national polls indicate GOP hopeful Mitt Romney is tied with President Barack Obama while swing state polls suggest that Democrats are going to win enough electoral votes for to keep the White House.

[ICP.jpg]

Electoral votes, how the fark do they work?

Betcha he wasn't puzzled back in 2000 when Gore actually won the popular vote and lost because Florida.


If Gore had won his home state, or Ohio or Indiana, he wouldn't have needed Florida.
 
2012-11-05 03:26:55 AM

Lorelle: Notabunny: Stock up on ammunition, water, canned food and batteries. Board your windows and doors. When Obama wins on Tuesday, the neocons are going be entirely blindsided and are going to contemplate an alcohol-fueled 2nd Amendment solution.

Given the number of Teabagging nutjobs out there, I wouldn't be surprised if a few of them completely go off the deep end after the election. It's more than a little scary.


Excuse me, but as someone who gets teabagged on a regular basis, I am seriously off.....

Oh you meant the Tea Party. Nevermind.
 
2012-11-05 04:54:16 AM

Mrtraveler01: eddiesocket: It's weird how the north is almost always more liberal than the south, pretty much everywhere.

Florida is the only exception to this rule.


Not to mention California and Hawaii. On the opposite extreme, Alaska is above the arctic circle, and it's as Derpy as hell. (DESPITE sharing a border with Canada.)

Nope. The regions of derp are generally sparsely populated. Virginia is NOVA with Mississippi in the back yard. Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburg with Alabama in between.

The South was more or less uninhabitable on a dense scale until the advent of air conditioning. In fact air conditioning was invented just so the weather in the summer wouldn't screw up their cotton processing. The only densely populated areas of the South are on coastlines, because the ocean keeps the air cool enough to be tolerable to our species.
 
2012-11-05 04:55:18 AM

Benevolent Misanthrope: Well, I have to hand it to the stupid farking press - they managed to turn this into a horse-race after all, when it should have been over months ago because of Romney's repeated efforts to shoot himself in the foot.

I'm completely disgusted with my country and its election process.


Good. You are paying attention.
 
2012-11-05 05:25:41 AM

quatchi: mainstreet62: quatchi: DamnYankees: Also, the national polls don't really show a tie. Per Nate Silver:

Simple average of national polls released Thursday: Obama +0.9. Friday: Obama +1.2. Saturday: Obama +1.3. Today (so far): Obama +1.4

Cool beans.

For what it's worth, I just heard David Frum call it for Obama on the Patrick Duffy show onna CBC radio.

Wait a minute here..........

Patrick Duffy has a show?!

Oh, FFS. I didn't say Patrick did I?

No, this guy. Mike Duffy.

[www.mikeduffy.ca image 404x272]

You can see how one can easily mix the two up though. Right?


Good lord, that's Trump with his toupee off.
 
2012-11-05 05:39:28 AM

anfrind: DamnYankees: anfrind: south of San Diego

Mexico?

I was actually thinking of the Escondido area (where my grandparents lived until about 15 years ago), but after checking Google Maps I realized that it's between Los Angeles and San Diego. Oops.

/no reason for me to visit Escondido now that I don't have family living there


I live in Escondido. (Yes, it's North San Diego.) It's very, very white bread/soccer mom/hedge fund manager/retiree here in the south part. In 2008, my neighborhood was plastered with high end McCain signs and banners. Every yard and tree covered.

Funny thing, though... This year, I've only seen two very small Romney yard signs, and a big laminated 20' Ron Paul banner. I don't doubt that Esco will go red again, but it sure doesn't seem like anyone here is excited about it.

As for me, I'm hoping for a sip of those sweet TP/neocon tears on Wednesday, but like many of you I'm not letting myself get too excited. Once I see 270, that bish is getting uncorked.
 
2012-11-05 05:48:25 AM
Ah, the 24 hour cable news network, where people get upset when clarity pokes its head out of the torture chamber in the cellar.
 
2012-11-05 06:28:28 AM

randomjsa: I'm not puzzled at all.


It's the economy, stupid.
 
2012-11-05 07:18:11 AM
On "Election HQ 2012" last night, they had Wallace and Hume giving fair and balanced assessments.

1. Romney might win because leadership values experience apple pie real change America wants.
2. Obama might win because he's such a good liar.

Pretty funny to recall Wallace making angry statements that Faux's news coverage really is fair and balanced and not be confused with punditry shows.
 
2012-11-05 07:19:42 AM
Brace yourself, catch that hat, and hold onto it for dear life..

/or don't

//I'm a nice guy, but you are such assholes, that watching you lose your shiat completely, will please me to no end.
 
2012-11-05 07:20:47 AM
3.bp.blogspot.com

html fail


it's 4 in the morning. Give me some slack lol
 
2012-11-05 07:38:14 AM
Everytime I see romneys smug self satisfied face on tv I am so thankful it will only be for a few more precious hours before he gets relegated to the dust bin of history. At least, I pray to god that is what will happen. He probably wont listen because im athiest though.
 
2012-11-05 11:41:23 AM

Smelly McUgly: DamnYankees: PUBLICPOLICYPOLLING
Our final Virginia poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 51-47 4 minutes ago

Their last poll had Obama up 3.

Yep, the president is up 1-2 points there. Good to know.

I still don't know how VA became Democratic the last two years. I guess maybe it is a state more like fellow Mid-Atlantic state Maryland than it is like the Carolinas, Georgia, etc.?


If you haven't already seen it, 538 is wrapping up their 50 states breakdown today, with Virginia. Short version: the north and coastal areas of the state are becoming more ethnically diverse, middle class, college educated, and liberal. Also the population in these areas is exploding, from 30% of the state's total population in just a few years.
 
2012-11-05 04:32:08 PM

Evil Twin Skippy: Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburg with Alabama in between.


i've heard of this phenomenon described as "Pennsyltucky".
 
2012-11-05 06:04:39 PM

thenewmissus: Here are my predictions.

Obama
Idaho


Now that's something I've not seen before...

/notsureifserious
 
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