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(The Raw Story)   Fox News senior political analyst Brit Hume is 'puzzled' by these strange polls from battleground states showing a persistent lead for Obama. How could this have happened?   (rawstory.com) divider line 348
    More: Obvious, Brit Hume, Fox News, obama, swing states, political analyst  
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5733 clicks; posted to Politics » on 04 Nov 2012 at 6:05 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-04 09:37:49 PM  

theorellior: Mean Daddy: Maybe because he isn't sucking Obama's d*ck, like ABC, NBC, CBS, MSNBC, TNT, CNN... shall I go on.

Awright, who brought this silly alt out of deep freeze for the occasion?


I think Amos Butthurtos or EnviroPhil got banned so, y'know...
 
2012-11-04 09:38:30 PM  

mrshowrules: Dusk-You-n-Me: Florida: Romney 49%, Obama 47% (Zogby)

Florida: Romney 48%, Obama 47% (YouGov)

Florida: Obama 46%, Romney 46% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Most Liberals are capable of looking at these numbers and thinking "Wow, Obama will likely lose Florida". Why can't Conservatives concede the same when the margins are so much bigger for Obama in Ohio?


What is because they live in a different reality to all others including pragmatic independents? Alex.
 
2012-11-04 09:40:23 PM  
Last polls I've had come across my PollTracker app -

OH - 52-47 Obama (PPP, Nov. 4)
VA - 51-47 Obama (PPP, Nov. 4)

FL - 50-48 Romney (Pulse Opinion Research, Oct. 29)
OH - 48-46 Obama (Pulse Opinion Research, Oct. 29)
WI - 49-48 Obama (Pulse Opinion Research, Oct. 29)
VA - 49-48 Obama (Pulse Opinion Research, Oct. 29)

/never heard of this Pulse Opinion Research, and yes I know PPP is a Dem lean
 
2012-11-04 09:40:54 PM  

theorellior: robsul82: I'm liking how the polls have looked this week, In Nate I Trust, but don't get me wrong. The butthole isn't coming unclenched until I see Brit Hume dejectedly call Ohio for Obama.

This. 2000 made me distrust thinking anything is a lock until the magic number 270 comes up.


Btw, RealClearPolitics 2000 election analysis is HILARIOUS in retrospect. Cached version here.

November 6, 2000
RCP Electoral College Analysis:
Bush 446 Gore 92
Bush 51.2 Gore 41.8 Nader 5.7
 
2012-11-04 09:41:33 PM  

theorellior: robsul82: I'm liking how the polls have looked this week, In Nate I Trust, but don't get me wrong. The butthole isn't coming unclenched until I see Brit Hume dejectedly call Ohio for Obama.

This. 2000 made me distrust thinking anything is a lock until the magic number 270 comes up.


No shiat. I mean, best of all worlds, I'm in the ODT on Tuesday just waiting for the west coast polls to close so that CA/WA/OR makes it official like 2008, but.
 
2012-11-04 09:44:23 PM  

robsul82: theorellior: robsul82: I'm liking how the polls have looked this week, In Nate I Trust, but don't get me wrong. The butthole isn't coming unclenched until I see Brit Hume dejectedly call Ohio for Obama.

This. 2000 made me distrust thinking anything is a lock until the magic number 270 comes up.

No shiat. I mean, best of all worlds, I'm in the ODT on Tuesday just waiting for the west coast polls to close so that CA/WA/OR makes it official like 2008, but.


At this point, I won't believe anything till at least December.
 
2012-11-04 09:44:47 PM  

Smeggy Smurf: November 3, 1980 the polls had Carter winning. Reagan won with 489. 2012 is imitating 1980 in economy, gas prices, shortages and a middle east in turmoil. History repeats itself with regularity when people don't learn from it.



Polls are a hell of a lot more accurate now than they were in 1980, so that's a laughable talking point. State polls were practically brand new at that time, and they were shiatty. But if you want to hang your hat on that flimsy comparison to get you through the next 36 hours, that's cool, I guess.
 
2012-11-04 09:46:12 PM  

Bag of Hammers: I think Amos Butthurtos... got banned


The ani-immigration nutjob named after an annoying insect? Huh. He wasn't so bad, unless you got him in a thread about non-white people.
 
2012-11-04 09:49:38 PM  

Mean Daddy: Maybe because he isn't sucking Obama's d*ck, like ABC, NBC, CBS, MSNBC, TNT, CNN... shall I go on


One day the Republicans will stop blaming the media and start looking at what wrong with their party

One day.....
 
2012-11-04 09:50:08 PM  

Lligeret: Mrtraveler01: eddiesocket: It's weird how the north is almost always more liberal than the south, pretty much everywhere.

Florida is the only exception to this rule.


Not really heavy population centers traditionally lean liberal. The northeast you have a lot of large cities, then further northeast you have all the city people that wanted to get away from the city. The midwest (northern portion) you have large cities surrounded by rural areas so you end up with blue islands in a red sea (Wisconsin for example typically looks all red, except for Madison, Milwaukee, and the college towns, then the rest is red). It is similar in the south however not quite to that extent due to history. Florida is farked up because old people all retire there whether they lean left or right. The west coast you have all the hippies so they go blue, although again once you hit rural sections for it it is pretty red.


I was referring to the whole "Florida gets more liberal the further south you go" part than it's standing compared to the rest of the country.

But i see you point.
 
2012-11-04 09:50:17 PM  
Ratliff is hurt. Maybe not.
 
2012-11-04 09:50:52 PM  
Whoops, wrong tab.
 
2012-11-04 09:51:45 PM  
Obviously the polls are not taking all the vote suppression and stealing into account.
 
2012-11-04 09:53:07 PM  
As of about a half hour ago, Nate says that if the national polls turn out to be +1.5 for Obama, it's a 100% chance he wins te electoral college. Also if trends hold, Obama is heading into Tuesday with the blowout numbers he had back before the first debate.
 
2012-11-04 09:53:39 PM  

robsul82: Ratliff is hurt. Maybe not.


Eyebeam looks around all concerned.

/Obscure? Fark don't fail me now. 
 
2012-11-04 09:55:59 PM  
www.rawstory.com 

www.mykoreanmom.com
 
2012-11-04 09:58:38 PM  

Bashar and Asma's Infinite Playlist: As of about a half hour ago, Nate says that if the national polls turn out to be +1.5 for Obama, it's a 100% chance he wins te electoral college. Also if trends hold, Obama is heading into Tuesday with the blowout numbers he had back before the first debate.


It really is amazing that Romney never managed to tie or jump ahead of Obama in any of 538's graphs.

Now we wait to see whether reality meets simulation.
 
2012-11-04 09:59:28 PM  

theorellior: It really is amazing that Romney never managed to tie or jump ahead of Obama in any of 538's graphs.

Now we wait to see whether reality meets simulation.


I seem to remember Nate saying that in the entire campaign, only 2 STATES ever switched between the candidates - Florida and NC.
 
2012-11-04 10:00:11 PM  
Fox: You've been making sh*t up against Obama and lying campaigning for Mitt Romney 24/7 since he became the presumptive nominee... What did you do wrong? You colossal f*ck ups!
 
2012-11-04 10:01:34 PM  

theorellior: Bashar and Asma's Infinite Playlist: As of about a half hour ago, Nate says that if the national polls turn out to be +1.5 for Obama, it's a 100% chance he wins te electoral college. Also if trends hold, Obama is heading into Tuesday with the blowout numbers he had back before the first debate.

It really is amazing that Romney never managed to tie or jump ahead of Obama in any of 538's graphs.

Now we wait to see whether reality meets simulation.


At this point, it's about whether the polling is statistically biased or not. Are they reaching a representative population? Are there tons of people lying in ways that a favorable Obama but not Romney?
 
2012-11-04 10:04:27 PM  

12349876: At this point, it's about whether the polling is statistically biased or not. Are they reaching a representative population? Are there tons of people lying in ways that a favorable Obama but not Romney?


Because of the cell phone problem I'd think the bias would be the other way, but I'm not gonna double-guess any more and try to chill until Tuesday night.
 
2012-11-04 10:05:07 PM  

theorellior: 12349876: At this point, it's about whether the polling is statistically biased or not. Are they reaching a representative population? Are there tons of people lying in ways that a favorable Obama but not Romney?

Because of the cell phone problem I'd think the bias would be the other way, but I'm not gonna double-guess any more and try to chill until Tuesday night.


Cell phone problem plus non-polling of spanish speakers (look at the 2010 NV Senate race).
 
2012-11-04 10:06:18 PM  

Lligeret: Obama would still win because that is how the electoral college works. Having the popular vote does not ensure a presidency.


Back in 2000 I remember the Mormon Republicans(there I go repeating myself) I was going to school with who were glad that the electoral college was going to elect Bush even though Gore won the popular vote. I wonder how they will feel if their coreligionist loses the same way.
 
2012-11-04 10:09:48 PM  
I wonder if Brit and Jack Cafferty ever get together and trade tips on the looking-sourpuss-like-droopy-dawg-makes-you-seem-like-a-serious-journa list approach to punditry
 
2012-11-04 10:12:07 PM  

ItchyMcDoogle: Mean Daddy: Maybe because he isn't sucking Obama's d*ck, like ABC, NBC, CBS, MSNBC, TNT, CNN... shall I go on

One day the Republicans will stop blaming the media and start looking at what wrong with their party

One day.....


i.imgur.com 

.. But not today.
 
2012-11-04 10:13:01 PM  
Here are the state polling averages on Pollster right now. Next to them I've listed the average that the polls were "off" by per state in 2004, which this election is being compared to:

CO: Obama +0.7 (off by 0.5 in Dem's favor in 2004)
IA: Obama +2.6 (off by 0.2 in Dem's favor in 2004)
NV: Obama +3.1 (off by 1.9 in Rep's favor in 2004)
NC: Romeny +2.5 (off by 4.6 in Dem's favor in 2004)
PA: Obama +5.6 (off by 1.0 in Rep's favor in 2004)
WI: Obama +4.2 (off by 1.4 in Rep's favor in 2004)
FL: Romney +0.8 (off by 4.9 in Dem's favor in 2004)
MI: Obama +6.2 (off by 0.1 in Rep's favor in 2004)
NH: Obama +2.2 (off by 1.0 in Dem's favor in 2004)
OH: Obama +3.2 (off by 2.3 in Dem's favor in 2004)
VA: Obama +1.1 (off by 1.0 in Dem's favor in 2004)

So in every single instance where Obama is leading the polls, the polls would have to be MORE inaccurate than they were in 2004 -- in some cases WAY MORE inaccurate -- in order for him to lose any of those states.

BUT STILL -- DEMS HAVE TO F*CKING VOTE!!!
 
2012-11-04 10:13:57 PM  
Here are my predictions.

Obama
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Iowa
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New York
Ohio
Rhode Island
Vermont
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Oregon

Romney
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
Florida
Georgia
Indiana
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
North Carolina
North Dakota
Oklahoma
Tennessee
South Carolina
South Dakota
Texas
Utah
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wyoming
 
2012-11-04 10:14:17 PM  

spongeboob: Back in 2000 I remember the Mormon Republicans(there I go repeating myself) I was going to school with who were glad that the electoral college was going to elect Bush even though Gore won the popular vote. I wonder how they will feel if their coreligionist loses the same way.


If Kerry had won, IIRC, 200K more votes in Ohio, he would've won Ohio and with it the Electoral College, while losing the popular vote by 2,500,000 votes.

Now THAT would've been some sweet tears, had that happened.
 
2012-11-04 10:21:45 PM  

thenewmissus: Romney...
Washington

I'll wager a month of Total Fark that Romney doesn't win either Washington.

/ DC and State
// That gives you 50% better odds
/// Shhhhh
 
2012-11-04 10:24:26 PM  

thenewmissus: Here are my predictions.


You think Romney will win Washington?
 
2012-11-04 10:27:33 PM  
Wednesday is going to be a rough day.

The thing is, the modern conservative movement has never had to acknowledge an out-and-out loss. They've been winning since the 1994 takeover of the House of Representatives. Yes, they lost the 96 presidential election, but they exacted their revenge on a president who should have known better, and that made it all better. The vitriol helped solidify their base. Progress was still being made. In 2000, all their dreams came true, and later, those dreams turned into fever dream fantasies as they gained control of the entire congress. They had political capital and by gum they were going to spend it. And by effectively crippling the senate through the filibuster, they don't even need to have a majority to run things, thanks to spineless Democrats who will never reach a supermajority.

What's that? They lost the White House in 2000? Well, yes, but they've been able to justify that in their minds. They live in a carefully constructed fantasy world where Obama was just a fluke, a bump in the road caused by bad timing, good marketing, mad telepromter skillz, and a wave of misplaced enthusiasm. But after four years of this guy, there's simply no way people will want to reelect him, especially not after the way they've roughed him up. The final victory should be at hand. But if Obama is reelected, two things that they simply can't process will have happened; people actually think he's doing a decent job, and people aren't agreeing with them.

Remember, the unofficial motto of the republican party is, "I can't believe that everyone in the world doesn't think exactly like me." They can no more understand it than a caveman could understand an iPad.
 
2012-11-04 10:28:18 PM  

thenewmissus: Here are my predictions.


Looking at your posting history, I'm going to assume you're not a right wing troll and that the Washington prediction was a goof. I officially take back my mocking.
 
2012-11-04 10:33:05 PM  
I predict the ER's will have a sudden surge of stroke and cardiac emergencies Tuesday night. Gun sales will skyrocket.
 
2012-11-04 10:37:38 PM  

Shirley Ujest: I predict the ER's will have a sudden surge of stroke and cardiac emergencies Tuesday night. Gun sales will skyrocket.


Buy stock in those nose plugs that supply oxygen to the elderly.
 
2012-11-04 10:38:32 PM  
Real clever Brit. "It's puzzling" is just enough to cause Fox watchers to infer "hmm, something's fishy about this". I think we'll see more and more of the Fox pundits take up this new narrative tomorrow, so they can easily segue into "the election was rigged" come Tuesday and run with it for the next four years. They may be despicable and devious, but they sure are business savvy.
 
2012-11-04 10:39:17 PM  
How could this have happened?

Because maybe people really aren't that stupid to vote for a shiathead like Romney after all.
 
2012-11-04 10:41:12 PM  

robsul82: Last polls I've had come across my PollTracker app -

OH - 52-47 Obama (PPP, Nov. 4)
VA - 51-47 Obama (PPP, Nov. 4)

FL - 50-48 Romney (Pulse Opinion Research, Oct. 29)
OH - 48-46 Obama (Pulse Opinion Research, Oct. 29)
WI - 49-48 Obama (Pulse Opinion Research, Oct. 29)
VA - 49-48 Obama (Pulse Opinion Research, Oct. 29)

/never heard of this Pulse Opinion Research, and yes I know PPP is a Dem lean


When the hell did WI get so close?
 
2012-11-04 10:41:48 PM  
How is the polling for Ryan's house seat my google-fu is weak tonight.
 
2012-11-04 10:42:59 PM  

Thigvald the Big-Balled: When the hell did WI get so close?


It didn't. Polls a big outlier. RCP average is D+4.2.
 
2012-11-04 10:43:22 PM  

robsul82: I'm liking how the polls have looked this week, In Nate I Trust, but don't get me wrong. The butthole isn't coming unclenched until I see Brit Hume dejectedly call Ohio for Obama.


This.

I KNOW the polls and statistics look good for Obama and Princeton/538/Votamatic/etc. all agree Obama will win -- and that it would an unprecedented polling failure for Romney to pull off a victory -- but:

1) I don't trust the vote count of Republican-governed states as far as I could throw Chris Christie
2) Voter suppression via long lines etc. in Republican-governed swing states
3) One in a thousand or one in a hundred are both too likely to occur for my comfort.

So, yeah, looking at the polling numbers, it's almost inconceivable that Romney will win, but there are too many moving parts and anything more than a .0000001 chance is too high for me.
 
2012-11-04 10:45:33 PM  

robsul82: spongeboob: Back in 2000 I remember the Mormon Republicans(there I go repeating myself) I was going to school with who were glad that the electoral college was going to elect Bush even though Gore won the popular vote. I wonder how they will feel if their coreligionist loses the same way.

If Kerry had won, IIRC, 200K more votes in Ohio, he would've won Ohio and with it the Electoral College, while losing the popular vote by 2,500,000 votes.

Now THAT would've been some sweet tears, had that happened.



I think we wouldn't have to worry about the Tea Party, they would have all died of apoplexy.
 
2012-11-04 10:47:29 PM  

Kibbler: I wonder if Brit and Jack Cafferty ever get together and trade tips on the looking-sourpuss-like-droopy-dawg-makes-you-seem-like-a-serious-journa list approach to punditry


Coffee at Starbucks every morning. "No, you need to frown a little more, and your eyes should turn down just a tad at the corners."
 
2012-11-04 10:47:37 PM  

Thigvald the Big-Balled: When the hell did WI get so close?



robsul82 made the mistake of only grabbing one or two polls per state, and from only two pollsters. Obama is up over 4 points in WI on average right now.
 
2012-11-04 10:51:14 PM  

DamnYankees: theorellior: robsul82: I'm liking how the polls have looked this week, In Nate I Trust, but don't get me wrong. The butthole isn't coming unclenched until I see Brit Hume dejectedly call Ohio for Obama.

This. 2000 made me distrust thinking anything is a lock until the magic number 270 comes up.

Btw, RealClearPolitics 2000 election analysis is HILARIOUS in retrospect. Cached version here.

November 6, 2000
RCP Electoral College Analysis:
Bush 446 Gore 92
Bush 51.2 Gore 41.8 Nader 5.7


Holy crap that's about as bad as Glenn Beck's map for this election which has Romney winning every state but Colorado.

What the hell made RCP think Bush was going to win 446 Electoral Votes in 2000?
 
2012-11-04 10:52:20 PM  

spongeboob: How is the polling for Ryan's house seat my google-fu is weak tonight.


I couldn't find any polls, but his election record is pretty consistent: he wins reelection every time by a large margin (with 60-68% of the vote). Sounds like his district is pretty solidly Republican. I imagine it would be a lot easier to find news about the race if it were at all close.
 
2012-11-04 10:56:27 PM  

Thigvald the Big-Balled: robsul82: Last polls I've had come across my PollTracker app -

OH - 52-47 Obama (PPP, Nov. 4)
VA - 51-47 Obama (PPP, Nov. 4)

FL - 50-48 Romney (Pulse Opinion Research, Oct. 29)
OH - 48-46 Obama (Pulse Opinion Research, Oct. 29)
WI - 49-48 Obama (Pulse Opinion Research, Oct. 29)
VA - 49-48 Obama (Pulse Opinion Research, Oct. 29)

/never heard of this Pulse Opinion Research, and yes I know PPP is a Dem lean

When the hell did WI get so close?


It probably doesn't hurt that Pulse Opinion Research is the organization that handles the polling for Rasmussen, using the same methodology.
 
2012-11-04 10:56:57 PM  

cchris_39: Never understood the politicizing of polls........seems like saying your guy is leading just comforts his supporters to stay home. I"d be screaming "WE"RE 0.01% BEHIND!" no matter what I really thought.

/lives 93% Republican district
//didn't "bother" to vote


Your guy leading brings in more big money donors, who will be less willing to invest in a losing candidate.
 
2012-11-04 11:01:08 PM  

shower_in_my_socks: Thigvald the Big-Balled: When the hell did WI get so close?


robsul82 made the mistake of only grabbing one or two polls per state, and from only two pollsters. Obama is up over 4 points in WI on average right now.


Well, I was just listing the most recent alerts I got over PollTracker, that's all.

Robots are Strong: It probably doesn't hurt that Pulse Opinion Research is the organization that handles the polling for Rasmussen, using the same methodology.


Ohhhhhhhh. Gotcha.
 
2012-11-04 11:04:57 PM  

DamnYankees: AkaDad: I heart Fark memes.

I work in Fark memes.

So I am really getting a kick out of most of these replies.

Some of you guys are very good at making it sound like you know what you are talking about.

But trust me.... You don't.

I think you just want to make yourself sound smart, when in reality you dont know what you are talking about.

This is how bad info gets passed around.

If you dont know about the topic....Dont make yourself sound like you do.

Cuz some Farkers belive anything they hear.


Kudos, it's been a while since I've seen the whole thing.
 
2012-11-04 11:10:53 PM  
Pulse Opinion Research

More like Poor Opinion Research


Amirite??
 
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