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(The New York Times)   Let's see what Nate Silver has to say as "most of the polls that we've seen over the past several days are the last ones that polling firms will be releasing into the field"   (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) divider line 41
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6134 clicks; posted to Politics » on 03 Nov 2012 at 4:06 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



Voting Results (Funniest)
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest


Archived thread
2012-11-03 04:31:31 PM
22 votes:
i159.photobucket.com
2012-11-03 03:26:16 PM
9 votes:

mrshowrules: If you want to think it is a horse race. It has 5 perfectly identical horses. Obama owns 4 and Romney owns 1.


And Romney's is dancing.
2012-11-03 04:33:36 PM
5 votes:
Three numbers that aren't being talked about:

20% -- Teabag Patriots
20% -- Palin Supporters
15% -- Obama Disillusionists
======================
55% -- Romney Voters
unskewedpolls.com

There will be a lot of crying libs this wednesday.
2012-11-03 04:49:12 PM
4 votes:

WombatControl: Of course, Obama is leading in most of the swing-state polls. Because most of the last round of polls were done by pollsters that have been biased towards Obama this entire cycle (Marist, and to a lesser extent PPP).

Now, Silver is right on one thing: if Romney wins the polls will have proven to have been so flawed that there's something fundamentally broken about them. But that may very well be the case. Marist shows the Democrats with a bigger advantage in Ohio than they had in 2008 - but that seems highly unlikely. Mitt Romney had a rally with over 20,000 people last night. Obama was also in Ohio and had fewer people attend than McCain did in 2008! If the Ohio electorate is overwhelmingly Democratic - more so than it was in 2008, why don't we see other evidence of that. Why are the early voting totals in strongly Democratic counties like Cuyahoga less than the 2008 numbers? Why isn't Obama getting bigger-than-2008 crowds? Why are polls of voter enthusiasm not showing a bunch of highly motivated Democrats and dispirited Republicans?

What Nate Silver is doing is looking just at the toplines of the polls - but that doesn't tell the whole story.

So yes, in order for this race to be truly competitive, the polls have to be wrong. But I can say that Mitt Romney has his own internal polling, and it's showing a result dramatically different than what the public polls say. And I can also say that Barack Obama also has his internal polling, and that's showing a very different picture than the public polls (although much closer).

Silver's model will work perfectly assuming that the polls are working perfectly. But the problem isn't Silver's model, it's that the current system of public polling we have in this country is breaking down for reasons that are not yet clear.

I still think Romney will win, and there are indications that it might not even be as close as we think. Now, maybe the polls really are dead on and all the inexplicable things going on with the numbers a ...


is this one of those "identify the songs by a band" post?
2012-11-03 06:00:49 PM
3 votes:
Well, we've seen the build up for years now.

The hyping of Romney as the 'great hope'....

The in-fighting and feuding with the Tea Partiers..

The betrayal of The Paulites at the RNC..

Romney's anointing and then his subsequent slow-motion self-destruction over the course of six months of campaigning.

Do you wonder if he sits up at night, thinking to himself..."This is why I got thrashed and harassed and insulted by morons on my OWN SIDE for a year and a half? To be thrown under the bus by Chris Christie at the last minute? To be a sacrifice to a President that we couldn't beat?"

Has he come to terms with the hard numbers yet? Has he faced up to the reality that he's about to lose the race of his life, a race he had no real chance of winning, but convinced himself that he 'deserved'?

Does he realize yet that he was the chosen lamb to be slaughtered on the altar of necessity? That he was 'given' that shot knowing that he was meant to fail, to lose spectacularly so that his own party could purge the crazies and fringe idiots that they themselves courted in 2010?

Would his ego let him grasp that reality?

And does he realize yet that when he loses, as he was destined to lose, he's going to be viciously torn apart by that very party that chose him to fail...for daring to fail?

He'll be harassed and insulted by men and women like Rush Limbaugh and Sarah Palin. He'll be mocked by the movers and shakers in his party, ridiculed as a loser by a core group of people who would NEVER dare take the chance to run themselves, the shock jocks and talking heads...

It's like watching the last leg of a marathon, with one guy way out in front, just cruising, and the other guy is behind...Painfully behind...and you can 'see' it on his face, he knows he's going to lose, and he wants to quit so bad, he wants to stop, but you can't.

You can't stop and walk away. You 'have' to finish, even knowing that you've failed, you have to 'finish' failing before you can walk off the field.

It's almost enough to feel bad for him. And then you remember the comments about 'the 47%'. And then you just grin and set the DVR to record his concession speech.
2012-11-03 04:58:03 PM
3 votes:

Muta: Obama Disillusionists


Worst D&D class ever.
2012-11-03 04:36:07 PM
3 votes:
i566.photobucket.com
2012-11-03 04:18:01 PM
3 votes:

3_Butt_Cheeks: And replaced with what?


The same thing, but with attractive female electors in lingerie instead of frumpy old party sycophants.
2012-11-03 04:14:49 PM
3 votes:
Math has a well-known liberal bias.
2012-11-03 10:31:02 PM
2 votes:

Muta: Three numbers that aren't being talked about:

20% -- Teabag Patriots
20% -- Palin Supporters
15% -- Obama Disillusionists
======================
55% -- Romney Voters


You counted the same people three times. And you badly misspelled 'racists'.
2012-11-03 07:43:15 PM
2 votes:

aselene: If Osama Hussein wins this election, I will cut off my own penis and give it to my father for Christmas.


pulpfactor.com
2012-11-03 06:16:39 PM
2 votes:

anfrind: There may be hope for your coworker yet.


I dunno. A bus driver can save the lives of a hundred children, and he's still a bus driver. A hero, for sure, but still just a bus driver. But ork just one cow, and he's a coworker forever.
2012-11-03 04:18:43 PM
2 votes:
I truly cannot comprehend the amount of Republican butthurt that will exist starting about 8pm on Tuesday night.


In men, the researchers found, a Super Bowl loss was associated with a 15 percent increase in heart deaths compared to expected deaths, whereas in women, there was a 27 percent increase. The risks were greater in seniors than in younger folks. In terms of absolute risk, there were an extra 2.6 deaths per 100,000 people over age 65 each day during the two weeks following the loss; for those under 65, the increased death rate was 0.11 per 100,000 people each day.



I have to wonder, how many people Obama is going to kill just by being re-elected.

Think about it. I have never seen such vehement angst about an election before. It's even worse than 2008 for Thor's sake. It's not out of the realm of possibility to think that there will be a few people so pissed off about this that they'll have heart attacks.

/If there is a God, please let one of them be Rush Limbaugh
2012-11-04 12:04:31 AM
1 votes:

SouthParkCon: Well it's official, add Nate Silver to the Fark Progressive Brigade Bukkake session.


Wow...dissing libs for liking Nate Silver. Aren't you just on the cutting edge of Derp.

Have you heard about this new "MSNBC" thing?
2012-11-03 11:31:33 PM
1 votes:
Three statisticals:
1) election of 2000
2) Ohio has Republican government
3) math is hard

The way I see it, the 3 add up to a Romney victory.
2012-11-03 10:04:29 PM
1 votes:

thornhill: shower_in_my_socks: I wonder if Republicans will begin throwing Romney under the bus on Monday, or if they'll wait until Tuesday night. In their mind, it's always their candidate who's bad when they lose, not their ridiculous, 50-years-outdated party platform.

They seem so certain of a victory this time around that they're going to blame:

1) Liberal bias in media, specifically for not bringing more attention to Bengazi and "Fast and Furious."

2) Polling conspiracy, especially Nate Silver.

3) Sandy

4) Chris Christie

5) Chicago politics

All of these factors conspired to steal the election from Romney.


Add in

6) Illegal immigrants

7) Activist judges (Pennsylvania voter ID ruling)

8) Using welfare to buy votes

9) Romney is a secret liberal who cheated to stop "real Americans" from winning the primaries and intentionally threw the election.

And the final conclusion will be that they need a more right wing candidate. Just hope someone comes to their senses over the next 3 years.
2012-11-03 08:49:07 PM
1 votes:

aselene: cameroncrazy1984: aselene: Lionel Mandrake: aselene: If Osama Hussein wins this election, I will cut off my own penis and give it to my father for Christmas.

Be sure to post pictures

I feel fully confident making that statement because it's so obvious he will lose.

Obvious to whom? Certainly not those who are using data. Maybe in your heart you really believe he will lose, but the science doesn't bear that out.

The "science" is all based on polls which over sample DemocRats.


So...if Obama wins, you will send pictures, right?
2012-11-03 06:38:56 PM
1 votes:

WombatControl: Lunchlady: I am frying up some crow pre-emptively for you.

Frying? Crow is a delicate meat! It should be roasted with salt and pepper!


Heathens both of you. The way you cook crow is to throw a crow and a rock into a fire. When the rock goes soft you can eat the crow.
2012-11-03 06:05:30 PM
1 votes:
i309.photobucket.com
2012-11-03 06:05:27 PM
1 votes:

incendi: 3_Butt_Cheeks: And replaced with what?

The same thing, but with attractive female electors in lingerie instead of frumpy old party sycophants.


fierceandnerdy.com
2012-11-03 05:38:45 PM
1 votes:

Aldon: Hmmmmm Rasmussen no longer has Romney leading in Ohio. Wouldn't it be weird if Rasmussen started matching the other polls in the next couple of days and start having Obama in the lead?

/just like in 2008


Keep there site's traffic/revenue up for the entire election and at the lest minute adjust their predictions to protect their credibility in advance of the next election? It would be pretty depraved and it only work if the people standing behind the Rasmussen poll numbers were complete idiots.
2012-11-03 05:26:26 PM
1 votes:
seriously look at the nation poll break down by region. The South is just farked up. But it don't matter how much AL and GA and MS hate obama.
2012-11-03 05:22:13 PM
1 votes:

Richard Roma: [i.huffpost.com image 285x209]

I'm not celebrating, not dismissing a 'false horserace', not feeling one iota of comfort, until I hear a Rmoney concession speech. The odds are against him winning, but far stranger things have happened.

But if and when he does lose... oh sweet FSM I'm going to enjoy rubbing it in the face of every indignant piece of Teabagger scum I can.



heh heh....I am holding off on the celebrating too, but am fully prepared to lose a few so-called friends on Wednesday morning. I have been listening to their falsehoods for a year now and cannot wait to drive the final spike into the coffin of these less than honest "friendships". I learned quite a few shocking things about certain people who I thought I knew before this election year. Now that i see their true colors, it is time to cut them loose.

I do not have time for bigoted morons who cannot spend even 15 seconds reading up on a candidate's position before spewing racial hatred.

I do not have time for bigoted morons period.
2012-11-03 05:00:49 PM
1 votes:

Biological Ali: Muta: Obama Disillusionists

Worst D&D class ever.


I don't know, they get a nifty bonus to casting Social Justice spells that can be useful in the right circumstances. The Trolljuration bonus is nice too.
2012-11-03 04:52:08 PM
1 votes:

Britney Spear's Speculum: [i566.photobucket.com image 465x640]


I should not have laughed so hard at that image.

pacified: Muta: Three numbers that aren't being talked about:

20% -- Teabag Patriots
20% -- Palin Supporters
15% -- Obama Disillusionists
======================
55% -- Romney Voters
[unskewedpolls.com image 600x515]

There will be a lot of crying libs this wednesday.

there's a fark screen cap from some similar predictions from last time. I wish I could find it.


[thatsthejoke.jpg]
2012-11-03 04:49:27 PM
1 votes:

WombatControl: and there are indications that it might not even be as close as we think


someones been hangin out at unskewed polls again.
2012-11-03 04:48:54 PM
1 votes:
LOL @ WombatControl

There's one in every crowd.
2012-11-03 04:42:58 PM
1 votes:

wildcardjack: Does anyone study the butterfly effect of polling?

There might be some PhD grade stuff to research on the effects of polls on future poll results.


It's turtles all the way down.
2012-11-03 04:42:10 PM
1 votes:

pacified: there's a fark screen cap from some similar predictions from last time. I wish I could find it.


www.madmann.com
2012-11-03 04:42:06 PM
1 votes:
i45.tinypic.com

"The race is tightening!"
2012-11-03 04:40:08 PM
1 votes:

Muta: Three numbers that aren't being talked about:

20% -- Teabag Patriots
20% -- Palin Supporters
15% -- Obama Disillusionists
======================
55% -- Romney Voters


I know this is a joke, but no one will fall for it. Everyone knows that the correspondence between the 20% who are Teabaggers and the 20% who are Palin supporters is 1:1.
2012-11-03 04:39:49 PM
1 votes:
I carpool with my coworker. The ride after the results are announced is going to be entertaining, because he's absolutely convinced himself of two things: 1) that the economy is the most important issue regarding election in this campaign, and 2) Romney's gonna win.

I told him that the critical issue is women's reproductive rights. The look on his face was priceless when he looked up the polling in swing states and found out I was right.
2012-11-03 04:25:17 PM
1 votes:
Yes, it's hot, but it's a dead heat.
2012-11-03 04:21:15 PM
1 votes:
"For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased"


See? Even Nate Silver admits the polls are biased.


/Willard will win eventually. If not in 2012, then in 2016, 2020, or 2024
2012-11-03 04:15:53 PM
1 votes:
yeah but a fat dood said he was girlie
2012-11-03 04:04:23 PM
1 votes:

Elandriel: mrshowrules: If you want to think it is a horse race. It has 5 perfectly identical horses. Obama owns 4 and Romney owns 1.

And Romney's is dancing.


Backwards.

/pretty impressive, though
//for a horse
2012-11-03 12:50:49 PM
1 votes:
We don't just want a horse race, we know in our gut that it is one.
2012-11-03 12:18:48 PM
1 votes:

vartian: Uchiha_Cycliste: Should we really call him a media person? He's a math geek who's good enough at what he does that the NYTimes gave him a blog. I don't think he would consider himself a media personality.

If it is good enough for the Times, it is good enough for me.

It's also inappropriate for a Times journalist, which is how Mr. Silver is seen by the public even though he's not a regular staff member.


Okie Dokie, you guys are right. And I've learned something... everyone wins!


\but Romney
2012-11-03 11:52:12 AM
1 votes:
Friday's polling should make it easy to discern why Mr. Obama has the Electoral College advantage. There were 22 polls of swing states published Friday. Of these, Mr. Obama led in 19 polls, and two showed a tie. Mitt Romney led in just one of the surveys, a Mason-Dixon poll of Florida.

Dammit, Nate. they are trying to sell a horse race narrative and your facts are not helping in that regard!

/Reveling in the power that is TF.
//Shoutout to Hammetman, TY 4 teh TF. [who'sawesome?.jpg]
///Now to lord it over teh filthy liters!!! 
2012-11-03 11:44:00 AM
1 votes:
Isolated voters, overzealous pollster.
2012-11-03 11:19:06 AM
1 votes:
Nevertheless, these arguments are potentially more intellectually coherent than the ones that propose that the race is "too close to call." It isn't. If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.

Couldn't have called Scarborough (AND his editor!) out more plainly.
 
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