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(The New York Times)   Let's see what Nate Silver has to say as "most of the polls that we've seen over the past several days are the last ones that polling firms will be releasing into the field"   (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) divider line 254
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6137 clicks; posted to Politics » on 03 Nov 2012 at 4:06 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-03 11:16:50 AM  
Heh, "Yes, of course: most of the arguments that the polls are necessarily biased against Mr. Romney reflect little more than wishful thinking."
 
2012-11-03 11:19:06 AM  
Nevertheless, these arguments are potentially more intellectually coherent than the ones that propose that the race is "too close to call." It isn't. If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.

Couldn't have called Scarborough (AND his editor!) out more plainly.
 
2012-11-03 11:44:00 AM  
Isolated voters, overzealous pollster.
 
2012-11-03 11:52:12 AM  
Friday's polling should make it easy to discern why Mr. Obama has the Electoral College advantage. There were 22 polls of swing states published Friday. Of these, Mr. Obama led in 19 polls, and two showed a tie. Mitt Romney led in just one of the surveys, a Mason-Dixon poll of Florida.

Dammit, Nate. they are trying to sell a horse race narrative and your facts are not helping in that regard!

/Reveling in the power that is TF.
//Shoutout to Hammetman, TY 4 teh TF. [who'sawesome?.jpg]
///Now to lord it over teh filthy liters!!! 
 
2012-11-03 11:53:23 AM  

Elandriel: Nevertheless, these arguments are potentially more intellectually coherent than the ones that propose that the race is "too close to call." It isn't. If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.

Couldn't have called Scarborough (AND his editor!) out more plainly.


Yeah, Nate has buckled a little under the pressure and attacks. Not really surprising though, given that a pretty big part of the GOP have personally come after him for single-handedly stopping the myth of Mitt-mentum.

But that's an extraordinarily definitive polling day. Even if you accept, as I do, that Ohio will be stolen by fraudulent machines, if Romney can't win Florida he has no chance, and he still needs other swing states too. To be down in all of them is a sign he's done.
 
2012-11-03 11:55:11 AM  

GAT_00: Yeah, Nate has buckled a little under the pressure and attacks


I don't call that "buckling," I call that "having a spine" which is not something that media people are generally known for.
 
2012-11-03 11:56:48 AM  

cameroncrazy1984: GAT_00: Yeah, Nate has buckled a little under the pressure and attacks

I don't call that "buckling," I call that "having a spine" which is not something that media people are generally known for.


Should we really call him a media person? He's a math geek who's good enough at what he does that the NYTimes gave him a blog. I don't think he would consider himself a media personality.
 
2012-11-03 11:59:07 AM  

Uchiha_Cycliste: cameroncrazy1984: GAT_00: Yeah, Nate has buckled a little under the pressure and attacks

I don't call that "buckling," I call that "having a spine" which is not something that media people are generally known for.

Should we really call him a media person? He's a math geek who's good enough at what he does that the NYTimes gave him a blog. I don't think he would consider himself a media personality.


He is one of the most important people to this election cycle. And just because you don't want to be a media person doesn't mean you aren't.
 
2012-11-03 12:00:29 PM  

GAT_00: Uchiha_Cycliste: cameroncrazy1984: GAT_00: Yeah, Nate has buckled a little under the pressure and attacks

I don't call that "buckling," I call that "having a spine" which is not something that media people are generally known for.

Should we really call him a media person? He's a math geek who's good enough at what he does that the NYTimes gave him a blog. I don't think he would consider himself a media personality.

He is one of the most important people to this election cycle. And just because you don't want to be a media person doesn't mean you aren't.


I'm not sure I agree, his *results* are a crucial factor in this election cycle. He could or could not be there and it would all be the same.
 
2012-11-03 12:15:32 PM  

Uchiha_Cycliste: Should we really call him a media person? He's a math geek who's good enough at what he does that the NYTimes gave him a blog. I don't think he would consider himself a media personality.


If it is good enough for the Times, it is good enough for me.

It's also inappropriate for a Times journalist, which is how Mr. Silver is seen by the public even though he's not a regular staff member.
 
2012-11-03 12:18:48 PM  

vartian: Uchiha_Cycliste: Should we really call him a media person? He's a math geek who's good enough at what he does that the NYTimes gave him a blog. I don't think he would consider himself a media personality.

If it is good enough for the Times, it is good enough for me.

It's also inappropriate for a Times journalist, which is how Mr. Silver is seen by the public even though he's not a regular staff member.


Okie Dokie, you guys are right. And I've learned something... everyone wins!


\but Romney
 
2012-11-03 12:50:49 PM  
We don't just want a horse race, we know in our gut that it is one.
 
2012-11-03 02:48:14 PM  
I love how Silver shows how Obama's significant lead in Ohio, Iowa, Nevada and Wisconsin are not sampling errors whereas Romney's thin lead in Florida could very well represent a sampling error. Sure could see how this would piss off Conservatives. KILL THE MESSENGER!

/to they crazies out there, it is an expression - please don't kill anyone
 
2012-11-03 02:51:25 PM  

themindiswatching: We don't just want a horse race, we know in our gut that it is one.


If you want to think it is a horse race. It has 5 perfectly identical horses. Obama owns 4 and Romney owns 1. Place your bets.
 
2012-11-03 03:26:16 PM  

mrshowrules: If you want to think it is a horse race. It has 5 perfectly identical horses. Obama owns 4 and Romney owns 1.


And Romney's is dancing.
 
2012-11-03 04:04:23 PM  

Elandriel: mrshowrules: If you want to think it is a horse race. It has 5 perfectly identical horses. Obama owns 4 and Romney owns 1.

And Romney's is dancing.


Backwards.

/pretty impressive, though
//for a horse
 
2012-11-03 04:09:53 PM  
Does anyone study the butterfly effect of polling?

There might be some PhD grade stuff to research on the effects of polls on future poll results.
 
2012-11-03 04:11:33 PM  
The electoral college is a ridiculously outdated concept and should be done away with.
 
2012-11-03 04:11:47 PM  
No, he's not going to sleep with you.
 
2012-11-03 04:13:32 PM  

Popcorn Johnny: The electoral college is a ridiculously outdated concept and should be done away with.


And replaced with what?
 
2012-11-03 04:14:49 PM  
Math has a well-known liberal bias.
 
2012-11-03 04:15:53 PM  
yeah but a fat dood said he was girlie
 
2012-11-03 04:16:17 PM  
But the state polls may not be right. They could be biased. Based on the historical reliability of polls, we put the chance that they will be biased enough to elect Mr. Romney at 16 percent.

That seems generous.
 
2012-11-03 04:18:01 PM  

3_Butt_Cheeks: And replaced with what?


The same thing, but with attractive female electors in lingerie instead of frumpy old party sycophants.
 
2012-11-03 04:18:34 PM  

Popcorn Johnny: The electoral college is a ridiculously outdated concept and should be done away with.


Would you feel that way if Romney was winning?
 
2012-11-03 04:18:43 PM  
I truly cannot comprehend the amount of Republican butthurt that will exist starting about 8pm on Tuesday night.


In men, the researchers found, a Super Bowl loss was associated with a 15 percent increase in heart deaths compared to expected deaths, whereas in women, there was a 27 percent increase. The risks were greater in seniors than in younger folks. In terms of absolute risk, there were an extra 2.6 deaths per 100,000 people over age 65 each day during the two weeks following the loss; for those under 65, the increased death rate was 0.11 per 100,000 people each day.



I have to wonder, how many people Obama is going to kill just by being re-elected.

Think about it. I have never seen such vehement angst about an election before. It's even worse than 2008 for Thor's sake. It's not out of the realm of possibility to think that there will be a few people so pissed off about this that they'll have heart attacks.

/If there is a God, please let one of them be Rush Limbaugh
 
2012-11-03 04:21:15 PM  
"For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased"


See? Even Nate Silver admits the polls are biased.


/Willard will win eventually. If not in 2012, then in 2016, 2020, or 2024
 
2012-11-03 04:23:51 PM  

Dull Cow Eyes: "For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased"


See? Even Nate Silver admits the polls are biased.


/Willard will win eventually. If not in 2012, then in 2016, 2020, or 2024


My biggest hope is that Mitt Romney loses this election and never stops running. I hope he spends his entire fortune chasing that impossible dream. I hope he and his family become laughing stocks, punchlines and that they kill their corrupt horrible party doing it.
 
2012-11-03 04:25:17 PM  
Yes, it's hot, but it's a dead heat.
 
2012-11-03 04:25:46 PM  

quatchi: Dammit, Nate. they are trying to sell a horse race narrative and your facts are not helping in that regard!


Interesting point. Usually when there is a large voter turnout, it helps the Dems, not the GOP.
Are the right wingers shooting themselves in the foot pushing this narrative or are they actually ham stringing Romney because his name doesn't end in Bush or something else more preferred?
However, if it's anywhere close to a tie like they say, you better get out and vote.
/has already voted early
 
2012-11-03 04:26:05 PM  
It's all over but the shout. Romney can try again in 2016. We will have at least a couple more years of gridlock and a continued plodding recovery. Hopefully we will hit a point at which confidence returns in a major way and businesses start spending all that cash they are currently sitting on. Whomever wins will preside over a recovery regardless of their policies. President Obama will probably have a budget thats around 24% of GDP and Romney will probably have a budget around 20% of GDP. There is a difference but nothing huge. President just don't have thevability to have a huge effect on the economy. Their influence lies almost completely in how much they are trusted and in how much confidence they can instill into the people and businesses via the "bully pulpit". If everybody believes that things are getting better, things will get better much faster, if there is no hope, no enthusiasm and no stability we will have a much slower recovery. I hope that whomever is elected will inspire us but I'm not holding my breath.
 
2012-11-03 04:26:20 PM  

PonceAlyosha: My biggest hope is that Mitt Romney loses this election and never stops running. I hope he spends his entire fortune chasing that impossible dream. I hope he and his family become laughing stocks, punchlines and that they kill their corrupt horrible party doing it.


You mean like other serial campaigners like Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan?
 
2012-11-03 04:27:02 PM  

Irregardless: President just don't have thevability to have a huge effect on the economy.


How anyone can say that after the Bush administration is goddamn beyond me.
 
2012-11-03 04:27:17 PM  

Dull Cow Eyes: /Willard will win eventually. If not in 2012, then in 2016, 2020, or 2024


I think he's pissed off enough of the party elite that he won't make it far in 2016. Someone with charisma will show up when they're not facing the prospect of running against Obama. They thought they had a chance in 2008, so they put up somebody who could have won (till they screwed it all up). Romney got in because everyone better than him realized this election was career suicide and found better things to do until 2016. There will be a MUCH better slate in the republican primaries next time around. The loonies will still be there, of course, but there will be a real contender or two as well.
 
2012-11-03 04:27:23 PM  
Princeton Election Consortium is giving Obama a 98% chance of winning in one analysis, and 99.8% in another.
 
2012-11-03 04:27:40 PM  
Maybe all of this polling information will show that the era of 2 parties isn't in the best monetary interest of the 24/7 media and they need to let a 3rd and 4th party in to play against the other 2. Look at the primaries, they filled a ton of time with all the flavor of the week candidates.

One can dream.
 
2012-11-03 04:27:43 PM  

Dull Cow Eyes: "For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased"


See? Even Nate Silver admits the polls are biased.


/Willard will win eventually. If not in 2012, then in 2016, 2020, or 2024


Doubtful. If he gets thrashed in this election I don't think he'll really have the momentum within his party to make it past the primary again. His entire campaign is just giving opponents outside and within his party ammunition.
 
2012-11-03 04:28:32 PM  

PonceAlyosha: Dull Cow Eyes: "For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased"


See? Even Nate Silver admits the polls are biased.


/Willard will win eventually. If not in 2012, then in 2016, 2020, or 2024

My biggest hope is that Mitt Romney loses this election and never stops running. I hope he spends his entire fortune chasing that impossible dream. I hope he and his family become laughing stocks, punchlines and that they kill their corrupt horrible party doing it.


That's a lot of HOPE.
 
2012-11-03 04:31:08 PM  

tolallorti: Dull Cow Eyes: "For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased"


See? Even Nate Silver admits the polls are biased.


/Willard will win eventually. If not in 2012, then in 2016, 2020, or 2024

Doubtful. If he gets thrashed in this election I don't think he'll really have the momentum within his party to make it past the primary again. His entire campaign is just giving opponents outside and within his party ammunition.


The entire GOP establishment (including Fox News) will throw Romney completely under the bus. I figure we'll have about a week or two of whining about stolen votes or conspiracies. Once it's obvious they can't get the results changed through some legal challenges and accept the results, they'll turn on Romney completely.
 
2012-11-03 04:31:31 PM  
i159.photobucket.com
 
2012-11-03 04:32:23 PM  
Corrections: "that's", "Presidents" "the ability" "faster. If"

/ipad keyboard and correction software is not great
//I'm also very lazy about proofreading
 
2012-11-03 04:33:05 PM  
FORWARD to CHANGE!
 
2012-11-03 04:33:36 PM  
Three numbers that aren't being talked about:

20% -- Teabag Patriots
20% -- Palin Supporters
15% -- Obama Disillusionists
======================
55% -- Romney Voters
unskewedpolls.com

There will be a lot of crying libs this wednesday.
 
2012-11-03 04:34:13 PM  

3_Butt_Cheeks: And replaced with what?


A month-long post-election reality TV deathmatch between teams of electors, of course. The ratings would be fantastic.
 
2012-11-03 04:34:17 PM  
He's purposely skewing everything for Obama because he's tired of being taken seriously and is hoping to screw things up so badly he not only loses his job, but is laughed at by women and children when he walks down the street.

or something.
 
2012-11-03 04:34:47 PM  
Yes, the horserace claptrap is based on nothing. You won't hear any candidate on either side say so, though, because it suits their purpose to maintain the illusion of a competitive race as much as it suits the journalists' purpose. Everyone knows that the presidential race is done, so now all the focus is on downticket races. Both parties want their own voters to believe the presidential race is close because it will be key to winning House and Senate seats, statehouses, and state legislatures.
 
2012-11-03 04:36:07 PM  
i566.photobucket.com
 
2012-11-03 04:38:57 PM  

MithrandirBooga: I have to wonder, how many people Obama is going to kill just by being re-elected.


Maybe that's Obama's economic plan. Win the election, kill off all the Fox geezers and when Congress swings massively blue from it in the midterms actually get something done for the first time in almost six years.
 
2012-11-03 04:39:15 PM  
Polls are a tool of propaganda, and nothing more.
 
2012-11-03 04:39:49 PM  
I carpool with my coworker. The ride after the results are announced is going to be entertaining, because he's absolutely convinced himself of two things: 1) that the economy is the most important issue regarding election in this campaign, and 2) Romney's gonna win.

I told him that the critical issue is women's reproductive rights. The look on his face was priceless when he looked up the polling in swing states and found out I was right.
 
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