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(Washington Examiner)   Michael Barone tries to outdo Nate Silver; you already know where this is heading   (washingtonexaminer.com) divider line 23
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4199 clicks; posted to Politics » on 03 Nov 2012 at 3:04 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-03 12:29:14 PM  
8 votes:
California (55) - Although most polls show this state comfortably in the Obama column, we all know the hippies will be home smoking their medical marijuana and forget to even vote. Romney.

New York (29) - All the bleeding-heart liberals in New York City are out of gas to drive to a polling station, and would be too busy recharging their iPhones to vote anyway. Upstate New York is all Republican. Romney.

Illinois (20) - I can't think of any way Romney could possibly win this state, but what about those four Americans who died in Benghazi? I bet there are enough corn farmers hoppin' mad over Benghazi to swing this state red. Romney.
2012-11-03 12:29:46 PM  
7 votes:
Aren't these men a little old to still be writing letters to Santa?
2012-11-03 03:40:58 PM  
5 votes:
It's win/(lose)win situation for conservative pundits. If Romney wins--and it's a possibility--their predictions are vindicated and scientific method/common sense takes a serious hit. On the other hand, if Obama wins the conservadits are primed for round two of the election: we was robbed! Look at all these web sites and talking heads who predicted a win for Romney! The Democrats must have stolen the election!

Once again I will push my latest idea: Write-In Romney! Mitt Romney doesn't deserve to be president, but he does deserve some recognition for all the hard work he's had other people put in on his behalf. While you should under no circumstances vote for him for president, there are doubtless many offices on your ballot --registrar of deeds, dog catcher -- which better suit his experience and expertise. Why not throw Willard a little bone and elect him Town Treasurer or to some other innocuous post where he can do little harm and perhaps add another couple of hundred dollars to to his IRA?

Mitt Romney for Dog Catcher in 2012!
2012-11-03 03:53:52 PM  
4 votes:
He fixes the cable?
2012-11-03 01:38:08 PM  
4 votes:
I haven't seen this much flailing since the T-1000 at the end of Terminator 2.
2012-11-03 03:15:56 PM  
3 votes:
Good lord, that article was written by a Pokemon.

Rom-romney! Ney! RomNEY!
2012-11-03 02:25:32 PM  
3 votes:

quatchi: I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney.

If that's what the WE are calling a Senior Political Analyst these days I'd hate to read what their newbs think.

/Unless this entire article was just some sort of twisted inside troll joke in order to win a drunken bar bet to see how many times he get away with repeating the word "Romney" in one piece and still get some outfit to publish it in which case ...*golf clap*!


"Who's going to win Washington?" "Romney." "Romney."
"Who would win a foosball game?" "Romney." "Romney."
"OK, next question. Romney vs. a hurricane. But the hurricane is named Hurricane Willard." "That's a tough one, but I'm gonna go with Romney." "I'm saying Romney too."
2012-11-03 03:39:04 PM  
2 votes:

whistleridge: Remind again how she managed to get that nod?


Because Romney.
2012-11-03 03:36:12 PM  
2 votes:
I've already done this once maybe a month ago, but...let's look and see what the Fark headlines were showing about this time in 2008 (the election was November 3rd that year):

McCain takes a lead in North Carolina, Ohio and Missouri. This is what a comeback looks like(realclearpolitics.com) (11/02/08)

"John McCain is going to win this election, unless, of course, many voters stay home because they have been convinced by the media that McCain can't win or there is enough fraudulent voting to pad Obama's numbers"(americandaily.com) (11/02/08)

Obama and the liberal mainstream media leverage an obscure social phenomenon to cheat their way to a win. Luckily, it won't work(townhall.com) (11/01/08)

John McCain leads Barack Obama in new national poll(drudgereport.com) (11/01/08)

John McCain: I'm very happy with my 17% odds on Intrade(clusterstock.com) (10/31/08)

Another day, another Pennsylvania poll showing McCain gaining quickly(strategicvision.biz) (10/31/08)

Chuck Todd believes John McCain can, and will, win(msnbc.msn.com) (10/29/08)

Pew Center for Research confirms media bias against McCain(politico.com) (10/28/08)

Another day, another McCain spokesperson opens his mouth, another fact check gets done, another lie gets dragged into the light. And the world spins round and round(trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com) (10/28/08)

New poll shows that water is wet, the sun is hot and McCain retains support of white, highly religious voters(gallup.com) (10/27/08)

See the themes? It's almost scary, the degree to which the headlines from this go-round are utterly interchangeable with the last time we did this. With the sole exception of Ryan being somewhat more competent than Palin. Her headlines make for depressingly funny reading, in retrospect. Remind again how she managed to get that nod?
2012-11-03 03:21:01 PM  
2 votes:
Darned skinny, foppish math experts with their maths. Nate is doing everyone's homework but the bullies still want to beat him up.
2012-11-03 12:16:15 PM  
2 votes:

thamike: Got to the third patently false statement and stopped reading.


I made it all the way to him calling PA for Romney until I couldn't take any more. Then I had to take a Karen Silkwood shower.
2012-11-03 07:02:17 PM  
1 votes:

Corvus: Who should you listen to:

A) Person who makes prediction model way before the election starts. Uses that prediction model without changing it no matter what it says.

B) person who after all the data is in then decides what he wants to pick and choose to be the important data to come up with a conclusion he already supported.


Trick question!

There is no way to judge the validity of their methods without knowing which one provides the answer I want.
2012-11-03 04:45:10 PM  
1 votes:
As an avid birdwatcher I would like to hear more about the elusive Northern Virginia Asian.
2012-11-03 04:38:46 PM  
1 votes:
Haha, the comments section reads like an infomercial. It's basically:

"I've always voted democrat, but this year I voted straight ticket republican! I am tired of this fraud in the white house!"
"I've been a lifelong liberal but n0bama has to go! I will vote against him and so will every other liberal I know! Never forget Benghazi!"
"Wow, who knew voting Republican could be this easy!"

Moderator: "That's right, and you get it all for the lowly price of $199.95!"
2012-11-03 04:25:06 PM  
1 votes:

SquirrelODeath: Urk, how lame it doesn't just recognize urls, sorry

Link

Link

Link


Ha! He called McCain 342 in 08. Lolololololol
2012-11-03 04:10:12 PM  
1 votes:
"But it's also true that most voters oppose Obama's major policies "

This is factually inaccurate. When presented as single issues most voters agree with what Obama is done. It's just that as soon as you associate anything with Obama or democrats they start to derp.


"But just about every indicator suggests that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting"

Early voting disagrees. Being a bit less than 2008 numbers but still beating Republicans is not the same as doing badly.



The rest is pretty much "I have three statisticals".
2012-11-03 03:29:56 PM  
1 votes:
Get a brain Barone
2012-11-03 03:18:50 PM  
1 votes:

A Dark Evil Omen: Good lord, that article was written by a Pokemon.

Rom-romney! Ney! RomNEY!


img.pokemondb.net

Slo-slo-Trickle down economics seems like a realistic description of how markets grow-slowpoooke.
2012-11-03 03:00:38 PM  
1 votes:
"Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That's bad news for Barack Obama."

That's bad news f...

WTF he started his article with a meme?
2012-11-03 02:13:27 PM  
1 votes:
Seriously, if writing bullshiat like this is all it takes to be a "senior political analyst" sign me up. I can write crap like this all day long.
2012-11-03 12:41:12 PM  
1 votes:
Good luck with that...
2012-11-03 11:25:28 AM  
1 votes:

Three Crooked Squirrels: That reads as more of a wish list than any sort of real political analysis.


Mr. Barone doesn't exactly have great non-partisan credentials:

Michael Barone is Senior Political Analyst for the Washington Examiner, co-author of The Almanac of American Politics and a contributor to Fox News

That, and I seriously doubt The Examiner pays its contributors. At least for their sake, I hope they don't.
2012-11-03 10:49:11 AM  
1 votes:
"...propose that the race is "too close to call." It isn't. If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public."

Can't say it any better than Mr. silver already did today.
 
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