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(Washington Examiner)   Michael Barone tries to outdo Nate Silver; you already know where this is heading   (washingtonexaminer.com) divider line 26
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4198 clicks; posted to Politics » on 03 Nov 2012 at 3:04 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-03 10:49:11 AM
6 votes:
"...propose that the race is "too close to call." It isn't. If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public."

Can't say it any better than Mr. silver already did today.
2012-11-03 03:36:12 PM
4 votes:
I've already done this once maybe a month ago, but...let's look and see what the Fark headlines were showing about this time in 2008 (the election was November 3rd that year):

McCain takes a lead in North Carolina, Ohio and Missouri. This is what a comeback looks like(realclearpolitics.com) (11/02/08)

"John McCain is going to win this election, unless, of course, many voters stay home because they have been convinced by the media that McCain can't win or there is enough fraudulent voting to pad Obama's numbers"(americandaily.com) (11/02/08)

Obama and the liberal mainstream media leverage an obscure social phenomenon to cheat their way to a win. Luckily, it won't work(townhall.com) (11/01/08)

John McCain leads Barack Obama in new national poll(drudgereport.com) (11/01/08)

John McCain: I'm very happy with my 17% odds on Intrade(clusterstock.com) (10/31/08)

Another day, another Pennsylvania poll showing McCain gaining quickly(strategicvision.biz) (10/31/08)

Chuck Todd believes John McCain can, and will, win(msnbc.msn.com) (10/29/08)

Pew Center for Research confirms media bias against McCain(politico.com) (10/28/08)

Another day, another McCain spokesperson opens his mouth, another fact check gets done, another lie gets dragged into the light. And the world spins round and round(trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com) (10/28/08)

New poll shows that water is wet, the sun is hot and McCain retains support of white, highly religious voters(gallup.com) (10/27/08)

See the themes? It's almost scary, the degree to which the headlines from this go-round are utterly interchangeable with the last time we did this. With the sole exception of Ryan being somewhat more competent than Palin. Her headlines make for depressingly funny reading, in retrospect. Remind again how she managed to get that nod?
2012-11-03 11:36:01 AM
4 votes:
Just for reference, prior to the 2008 election, Michael Barone wrote two articles around late October and early November stating that McCain is surging due to tightening polls and that state polls for battleground states (and 114 Electoral Votes) are trending towards John McCain despite the national polls.

See link to US News and World Reports.
2012-11-03 01:52:07 PM
3 votes:
The thing is that all this Republican butthurt over Nate Silver just makes him more and more credible, especially when your efforts to "refute" him are based on wishful thinking and total bullshiat.
2012-11-03 01:27:15 PM
3 votes:
So Nate uses math. This guy uses "I'm feeling like..."

OK.
2012-11-03 11:05:50 AM
3 votes:
That reads as more of a wish list than any sort of real political analysis.
2012-11-03 03:53:52 PM
2 votes:
He fixes the cable?
2012-11-03 03:40:58 PM
2 votes:
It's win/(lose)win situation for conservative pundits. If Romney wins--and it's a possibility--their predictions are vindicated and scientific method/common sense takes a serious hit. On the other hand, if Obama wins the conservadits are primed for round two of the election: we was robbed! Look at all these web sites and talking heads who predicted a win for Romney! The Democrats must have stolen the election!

Once again I will push my latest idea: Write-In Romney! Mitt Romney doesn't deserve to be president, but he does deserve some recognition for all the hard work he's had other people put in on his behalf. While you should under no circumstances vote for him for president, there are doubtless many offices on your ballot --registrar of deeds, dog catcher -- which better suit his experience and expertise. Why not throw Willard a little bone and elect him Town Treasurer or to some other innocuous post where he can do little harm and perhaps add another couple of hundred dollars to to his IRA?

Mitt Romney for Dog Catcher in 2012!
2012-11-03 12:48:36 PM
2 votes:
Dear Michael Barone:

SHOW YOUR WORK
2012-11-03 12:16:15 PM
2 votes:

thamike: Got to the third patently false statement and stopped reading.


I made it all the way to him calling PA for Romney until I couldn't take any more. Then I had to take a Karen Silkwood shower.
2012-11-03 05:03:31 PM
1 votes:

Muta: jake_lex: The thing is that all this Republican butthurt over Nate Silver just makes him more and more credible, especially when your efforts to "refute" him are based on wishful thinking and total bullshiat.

It is stupid to write a column going all in for Romney at this point since it will be refuted within a couple days if your wrong. A credible author would included some type of disclaimer like "it is too early to know the impact of hurricane Sandy and that may help Obama".


Nah. If he's wrong, he goes in the big pile of people who were wrong and no one will remember in a few weeks, much less four years from now. On the off chance he's right, though, he gets hailed as a prophet and becomes trusted and respected for the next go round. People forget who was wrong, but the more absurd your prediction the more acclaim you'll get if it comes true.
2012-11-03 04:08:56 PM
1 votes:
Urk, how lame it doesn't just recognize urls, sorry

Link

Link

Link
2012-11-03 04:05:12 PM
1 votes:
This author is definitely right, it's not like he did this back in 2008 or anything....

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/barone/2008/09/16/mccain-has-the- a dvantage-over-obama-in-post-convention-polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/09/mccain_flies_his_ca m paign_past.html

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/barone/2008/10/08/tracking-polls- s how-different-pictures-of-obama-vs-mccain
2012-11-03 03:44:00 PM
1 votes:

ilambiquated: whistleridge: With the sole exception of Ryan being somewhat more competent than Palin

He totally disappeared after being booed by AARPannihilated by Biden in the Vice Presidential debate


FTFY
2012-11-03 03:39:04 PM
1 votes:

whistleridge: Remind again how she managed to get that nod?


Because Romney.
2012-11-03 03:30:39 PM
1 votes:

PC LOAD LETTER: Dear Michael Barone:

SHOW YOUR WORK


And that is why Nate Silver is destroying the entire chattering class.
2012-11-03 03:16:53 PM
1 votes:

Richard Freckle: "Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That's bad news for Barack Obama."

That's bad news f...

WTF he started his article with a meme?


LOL. Someone will explain to him why that was farking dumb.

His next sentence is just racist.

"True, Americans want to think well of their presidents and many think it would be bad if Americans were perceived as rejecting the first black president."

Obama won because he was black. I also love it when he starts with "True,". Who the fark is he talking to?

"True, I am beloved by women around the world." No one farking said you were asshole. You can't affirm what hasn't been stated. Or worse, or presuming your farking idiot readers will think that point after reading your first sentence.

Racist author: "Obama is losing on fundamentals"

Readers: "But what about Obama being black helping him Professor dipshiat"

Racist dipshiat author: "True, ...."


No one is making that farking point for you to say "True" to . If you think Obama was elected because he was black, just farking say so you racist coward.
2012-11-03 03:13:14 PM
1 votes:
Who should you listen to:

A) Person who makes prediction model way before the election starts. Uses that prediction model without changing it no matter what it says.

B) person who after all the data is in then decides what he wants to pick and choose to be the important data to come up with a conclusion he already supported.
2012-11-03 03:08:41 PM
1 votes:
Not only do I want Obama to win because it'll be better for America, I want him to win so I don't have to listen to ignorant morons crow how a Romney win shows that Nate was a biased liberal and his models don't mean shiat, etc.
2012-11-03 02:38:37 PM
1 votes:
Wisconsin (10). Recent polling is discouraging for Republicans. But Gov. Scott Walker handily survived the recall effort in June with a great organizational push. Democrats depend heavily on margins in inner-city Milwaukee (population down) and the Madison university community. But early voting is down in university towns in other states. The Obama campaign is prepared to turn out a big student vote, but you don't see many Obama signs on campuses. Romney.

Not that I would know or anything but Walker won because people in Wisconsin didn't agree with the recall attempt and wanted him to finish his term. You forget how many seats were flipped in the Wisconsin senate throughout the recall campaign. Also, you don't see as many Romney signs in peoples yards as you did Walker signs. Also I see a lot less Romney bumper stickers than I saw W'04 bumper stickers.

I won't say Obama has Wisconsin but Romney isn't a lock.
2012-11-03 02:25:32 PM
1 votes:

quatchi: I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney.

If that's what the WE are calling a Senior Political Analyst these days I'd hate to read what their newbs think.

/Unless this entire article was just some sort of twisted inside troll joke in order to win a drunken bar bet to see how many times he get away with repeating the word "Romney" in one piece and still get some outfit to publish it in which case ...*golf clap*!


"Who's going to win Washington?" "Romney." "Romney."
"Who would win a foosball game?" "Romney." "Romney."
"OK, next question. Romney vs. a hurricane. But the hurricane is named Hurricane Willard." "That's a tough one, but I'm gonna go with Romney." "I'm saying Romney too."
2012-11-03 02:12:55 PM
1 votes:

jake_lex: The thing is that all this Republican butthurt over Nate Silver just makes him more and more credible, especially when your efforts to "refute" him are based on wishful thinking and total bullshiat.


Also based on a complete misunderstanding of the concept of probability. Even if Romney wins, Silver is still right.
2012-11-03 01:38:08 PM
1 votes:
I haven't seen this much flailing since the T-1000 at the end of Terminator 2.
2012-11-03 01:08:34 PM
1 votes:
North Carolina (15 electoral votes). Obama has abandoned this target. Romney.

Uh, speaking as a North Carolinian, I wouldn't call 'sending Michelle Obama, Bill Clinton, AND Jill Biden to campaign over the last weekend of the election' as 'abandoning' anything. Nor do I call the untold millions spent carpet-bombing our airways with ads to be abandonment either.

Romney leads by .5%, not exactly a commanding lead. Yes, he's likely to win, but let's put that i perspective: Obama's chances of taking our fair state are significantly higher than Romney's odds of winning the Presidency.
2012-11-03 12:29:14 PM
1 votes:
California (55) - Although most polls show this state comfortably in the Obama column, we all know the hippies will be home smoking their medical marijuana and forget to even vote. Romney.

New York (29) - All the bleeding-heart liberals in New York City are out of gas to drive to a polling station, and would be too busy recharging their iPhones to vote anyway. Upstate New York is all Republican. Romney.

Illinois (20) - I can't think of any way Romney could possibly win this state, but what about those four Americans who died in Benghazi? I bet there are enough corn farmers hoppin' mad over Benghazi to swing this state red. Romney.
2012-11-03 12:12:36 PM
1 votes:
Got to the third patently false statement and stopped reading.
 
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