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(Washington Examiner)   Michael Barone tries to outdo Nate Silver; you already know where this is heading   ( washingtonexaminer.com) divider line
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4205 clicks; posted to Politics » on 03 Nov 2012 at 3:04 PM (4 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-03 03:38:15 PM  

St_Francis_P: That, and I seriously doubt The Examiner pays its contributors. At least for their sake, I hope they don't.


A friend use to write a dating column for the Examiner. She got paid something like a tenth of a penny per page view. Think she made about twenty five dollars for the entire year of writing articles.
 
2012-11-03 03:39:04 PM  

whistleridge: Remind again how she managed to get that nod?


Because Romney.
 
2012-11-03 03:39:39 PM  
tl;dr
Obama leads in the polls for [insert state] but if more Romney voters vote than Obama voters Romney will win. Romney.
 
2012-11-03 03:40:58 PM  
It's win/(lose)win situation for conservative pundits. If Romney wins--and it's a possibility--their predictions are vindicated and scientific method/common sense takes a serious hit. On the other hand, if Obama wins the conservadits are primed for round two of the election: we was robbed! Look at all these web sites and talking heads who predicted a win for Romney! The Democrats must have stolen the election!

Once again I will push my latest idea: Write-In Romney! Mitt Romney doesn't deserve to be president, but he does deserve some recognition for all the hard work he's had other people put in on his behalf. While you should under no circumstances vote for him for president, there are doubtless many offices on your ballot --registrar of deeds, dog catcher -- which better suit his experience and expertise. Why not throw Willard a little bone and elect him Town Treasurer or to some other innocuous post where he can do little harm and perhaps add another couple of hundred dollars to to his IRA?

Mitt Romney for Dog Catcher in 2012!
 
2012-11-03 03:42:10 PM  

whistleridge: With the sole exception of Ryan being somewhat more competent than Palin


He totally disappeared after being booed by AARP
 
2012-11-03 03:44:00 PM  

ilambiquated: whistleridge: With the sole exception of Ryan being somewhat more competent than Palin

He totally disappeared after being booed by AARPannihilated by Biden in the Vice Presidential debate


FTFY
 
2012-11-03 03:46:20 PM  

dr_blasto: The simple fact is that unless the polls are statistically biased toward Obama, Romney has zero chance of winning.

I would guess final tally will have O winning 50.5 to 48% nationally. I expect Romney to win FL and possibly CO. OH and VA won't be called till very late, I expect OH to have some problems and I expect VA to have several reported irregularities that may drag out the call for longer than usual. The only way Romney wins the popular vote is if he overperforms in every one of his states like TX and the turnout in NYC is seriously affected by Sandy, making NY much closer than it would normally be.


The parts of SI that were most damaged are generally very red.
 
2012-11-03 03:46:35 PM  

ilambiquated: whistleridge: With the sole exception of Ryan being somewhat more competent than Palin

He totally disappeared after being booed by AARP


You'll notice that he hasn't been to very many swing states this past week. I find that very telling. He isn't going to Ohio at all. He'd probably be strung up.
 
2012-11-03 03:48:53 PM  

cameroncrazy1984: ilambiquated: whistleridge: With the sole exception of Ryan being somewhat more competent than Palin

He totally disappeared after being booed by AARP

You'll notice that he hasn't been to very many swing states this past week. I find that very telling. He isn't going to Ohio at all. He'd probably be strung up.


I personally think he wants a low-key role right now. That way, he doesn't suffer as much fallout from the coming (likely) loss, but he can still reap the rewards in the (increasingly unlikely) event of a win.
 
2012-11-03 03:49:51 PM  

syrynxx: New York (29) - All the bleeding-heart liberals in New York City are out of gas to drive to a polling station, and would be too busy recharging their iPhones to vote anyway. Upstate New York is all Republican. Romney.


My dad more or less believes that this might happen.
 
2012-11-03 03:50:29 PM  
I just saw this weird Super-Pac Banner Ad on YouTube

pagead2.googlesyndication.com 

Why is the stand-in women in this ad wearing a hoodie and a hat?
 
2012-11-03 03:52:22 PM  

unyon: Girl From The North Country: thamike: Got to the third patently false statement and stopped reading.

I made it all the way to him calling PA for Romney until I couldn't take any more. Then I had to take a Karen Silkwood shower.

Nice visual.


Great. Now I want to watch Silkwood.
 
2012-11-03 03:52:27 PM  

Sgeo: syrynxx: New York (29) - All the bleeding-heart liberals in New York City are out of gas to drive to a polling station, and would be too busy recharging their iPhones to vote anyway. Upstate New York is all Republican. Romney.

My dad more or less believes that this might happen.


That parses. "Hey, we just got farked in the ass, let's proactively make sure that the next time that happens, it's worse!"
 
2012-11-03 03:53:52 PM  
He fixes the cable?
 
2012-11-03 03:54:13 PM  

mrshowrules: Richard Freckle: "Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That's bad news for Barack Obama."

That's bad news f...

WTF he started his article with a meme?

LOL. Someone will explain to him why that was farking dumb.

His next sentence is just racist.

"True, Americans want to think well of their presidents and many think it would be bad if Americans were perceived as rejecting the first black president."

Obama won because he was black. I also love it when he starts with "True,". Who the fark is he talking to?

"True, I am beloved by women around the world." No one farking said you were asshole. You can't affirm what hasn't been stated. Or worse, or presuming your farking idiot readers will think that point after reading your first sentence.

Racist author: "Obama is losing on fundamentals"

Readers: "But what about Obama being black helping him Professor dipshiat"

Racist dipshiat author: "True, ...."


No one is making that farking point for you to say "True" to . If you think Obama was elected because he was black, just farking say so you racist coward.



Today's racism isn't the same as it used to be, it's evolved and what people should really try to understand is what "white privilege" is and how it winds its why into society. It's not so much he would have to admit he is racist, it's he has to admit that there is an unseen framework that supports his behaviors. Until people, especially white people, understand what privileges they have in society, not individually, will you see this stuff start to get better. I would implore people who read this and similar posts to really look into what "white privilege" is and then just walk around life and observe. I'm certainly not going to try to talk you into anything, it's something others will have to search and accept for themselves.

/off me soapbox now
 
2012-11-03 03:54:23 PM  

dslknowitall: what the fresh hell is this bullshyt

[pagead2.googlesyndication.com image 300x250] 

how desperate do you have to be this scammy?


i love how "yes" is red and "no" is green. they're not confident enough in their audience to even be honest about that.

this is why republicans are doomed to fail.
 
2012-11-03 03:55:24 PM  

jake_lex: The thing is that all this Republican butthurt over Nate Silver just makes him more and more credible, especially when your efforts to "refute" him are based on wishful thinking and total bullshiat.


It is stupid to write a column going all in for Romney at this point since it will be refuted within a couple days if your wrong. A credible author would included some type of disclaimer like "it is too early to know the impact of hurricane Sandy and that may help Obama".


dr_blasto: ven if Romney wins, Silver is still right.


Silver is only wrong if RON PAUL or some other 3rd party wins.
 
2012-11-03 03:57:41 PM  

Muta: It is stupid to write a column going all in for Romney at this point since it will be refuted within a couple days if your wrong. A credible author would included some type of disclaimer like "it is too early to know the impact of hurricane Sandy and that may help Obama".


But even saying that would be fatally impolitic.
 
2012-11-03 04:01:59 PM  

RminusQ: quatchi: I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney.

If that's what the WE are calling a Senior Political Analyst these days I'd hate to read what their newbs think.

/Unless this entire article was just some sort of twisted inside troll joke in order to win a drunken bar bet to see how many times he get away with repeating the word "Romney" in one piece and still get some outfit to publish it in which case ...*golf clap*!

"Who's going to win Washington?" "Romney." "Romney."
"Who would win a foosball game?" "Romney." "Romney."
"OK, next question. Romney vs. a hurricane. But the hurricane is named Hurricane Willard." "That's a tough one, but I'm gonna go with Romney." "I'm saying Romney too."


Glad I was not the only one who read his state by state "analysis" and thought Superfans.
 
2012-11-03 04:05:05 PM  

WorldCitizen: So Nate uses math. This guy uses "I'm feeling like..."

OK.


As always, liberals think, conservatives feel.
 
2012-11-03 04:05:12 PM  
This author is definitely right, it's not like he did this back in 2008 or anything....

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/barone/2008/09/16/mccain-has-the- a dvantage-over-obama-in-post-convention-polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/09/mccain_flies_his_ca m paign_past.html

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/barone/2008/10/08/tracking-polls- s how-different-pictures-of-obama-vs-mccain
 
2012-11-03 04:05:32 PM  

skykid: I just saw this weird Super-Pac Banner Ad on YouTube

Why is the stand-in women in this ad wearing a hoodie and a hat?


Because she doesn't want to be recognized next Wednesday?
 
2012-11-03 04:08:56 PM  
Urk, how lame it doesn't just recognize urls, sorry

Link

Link

Link
 
2012-11-03 04:10:12 PM  
"But it's also true that most voters oppose Obama's major policies "

This is factually inaccurate. When presented as single issues most voters agree with what Obama is done. It's just that as soon as you associate anything with Obama or democrats they start to derp.


"But just about every indicator suggests that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting"

Early voting disagrees. Being a bit less than 2008 numbers but still beating Republicans is not the same as doing badly.

The rest is pretty much "I have three statisticals".
 
2012-11-03 04:11:48 PM  

St_Francis_P: That, and I seriously doubt The Examiner pays its contributors. At least for their sake, I hope they don't.


EngineerAU: A friend use to write a dating column for the Examiner. She got paid something like a tenth of a penny per page view. Think she made about twenty five dollars for the entire year of writing articles.


I believe you're confusing The Examiner, which pays writers a fraction of a penny per page view, with The Washington Examiner, a DC newspaper given away for free in the Metro stations, and prized by the local homeless population for it's effectiveness as a blanket and as bum wipe.
 
2012-11-03 04:13:27 PM  

whistleridge: cameroncrazy1984: ilambiquated: whistleridge: With the sole exception of Ryan being somewhat more competent than Palin

He totally disappeared after being booed by AARP

You'll notice that he hasn't been to very many swing states this past week. I find that very telling. He isn't going to Ohio at all. He'd probably be strung up.

I personally think he wants a low-key role right now. That way, he doesn't suffer as much fallout from the coming (likely) loss, but he can still reap the rewards in the (increasingly unlikely) event of a win.


Probably true. I don't think Romney had an easy time finding a running mate.
 
2012-11-03 04:15:24 PM  

FlashHarry: dslknowitall: what the fresh hell is this bullshyt

[pagead2.googlesyndication.com image 300x250] 

how desperate do you have to be this scammy?

i love how "yes" is red and "no" is green. they're not confident enough in their audience to even be honest about that.

this is why republicans are doomed to fail.


It's also kinda funny that they assume their readers are so stupid they will fall for this.
 
2012-11-03 04:24:27 PM  
Talk is cheap. Show me a GOP cheer-leader who is willing to back up his prediction with a substantial bet on intrade. Put your money where your mouth is. Until you do, I'll pay attention to what the guy who made a living off of his predictions has to say.
 
2012-11-03 04:25:06 PM  

SquirrelODeath: Urk, how lame it doesn't just recognize urls, sorry

Link

Link

Link


Ha! He called McCain 342 in 08. Lolololololol
 
2012-11-03 04:27:57 PM  
I am waiting for the Des Moines Register to print the morning after paper announcing "Romney wins, offers Obama a job in the white house kitchen" headline.

Kind of like the Dewey beats Truman headline paper
 
2012-11-03 04:28:04 PM  

skykid: Why is the stand-in women in this ad wearing a hoodie and a hat?



I do that a lot. The hoodie and the hat solve different problems. The hoodie is warm and comfortable and the baseball cap hides unwashed hair. The hoodies hood doesn't hide unwashed hair well. The GOP is trying to appeal to the unwashed sperm funnel in that pic.
 
2012-11-03 04:32:03 PM  

ilambiquated: whistleridge: cameroncrazy1984: ilambiquated: whistleridge: With the sole exception of Ryan being somewhat more competent than Palin

He totally disappeared after being booed by AARP

You'll notice that he hasn't been to very many swing states this past week. I find that very telling. He isn't going to Ohio at all. He'd probably be strung up.

I personally think he wants a low-key role right now. That way, he doesn't suffer as much fallout from the coming (likely) loss, but he can still reap the rewards in the (increasingly unlikely) event of a win.

Probably true. I don't think Romney had an easy time finding a running mate.


Funny you should say that.
 
2012-11-03 04:38:21 PM  
There's going out on a limb and there's going out on a limb and sawing it off when you're still sitting there.
 
2012-11-03 04:38:46 PM  
Haha, the comments section reads like an infomercial. It's basically:

"I've always voted democrat, but this year I voted straight ticket republican! I am tired of this fraud in the white house!"
"I've been a lifelong liberal but n0bama has to go! I will vote against him and so will every other liberal I know! Never forget Benghazi!"
"Wow, who knew voting Republican could be this easy!"

Moderator: "That's right, and you get it all for the lowly price of $199.95!"
 
2012-11-03 04:40:00 PM  

JosephFinn: There's going out on a limb and there's going out on a limb and sawing it off when you're still sitting there.


And then there's sawing off your own limbs. And that's the GOP
 
2012-11-03 04:45:10 PM  
As an avid birdwatcher I would like to hear more about the elusive Northern Virginia Asian.
 
2012-11-03 05:03:31 PM  

Muta: jake_lex: The thing is that all this Republican butthurt over Nate Silver just makes him more and more credible, especially when your efforts to "refute" him are based on wishful thinking and total bullshiat.

It is stupid to write a column going all in for Romney at this point since it will be refuted within a couple days if your wrong. A credible author would included some type of disclaimer like "it is too early to know the impact of hurricane Sandy and that may help Obama".


Nah. If he's wrong, he goes in the big pile of people who were wrong and no one will remember in a few weeks, much less four years from now. On the off chance he's right, though, he gets hailed as a prophet and becomes trusted and respected for the next go round. People forget who was wrong, but the more absurd your prediction the more acclaim you'll get if it comes true.
 
2012-11-03 05:16:13 PM  

Two sentences in and you can tell it's all bullshiat:

That's bad news for Barack Obama.

That's bad news for Barack Obama.

That's bad news for Barack Obama.

That's bad news for Barack Obama.

 
2012-11-03 05:17:25 PM  

vygramul: FlashHarry: dr_blasto: Even if Romney wins, Silver is still right.

well, yeah. an upset football game doesn't change the fact that the favored team was the probable winner. but if romney wins, it's an upset.

If the weather guy says there's a 20% chance of rain, and it rains, did that make him wrong and biased against rain?


Uh, actually, if it rains for roughly a fifth of the day, he's exactly right. Rain, unlike winning or losing an election, isn't an either/or proposition. The football analogy is better - someone wins, someone loses, and there are given probabilities of either of those things happening.
 
2012-11-03 05:21:23 PM  

whistleridge: See the themes? It's almost scary, the degree to which the headlines from this go-round are utterly interchangeable with the last time we did this. With the sole exception of Ryan being somewhat more competent than Palin. Her headlines make for depressingly funny reading, in retrospect. Remind again how she managed to get that nod?


She has a vag, so of course she'd bring in the disgruntled Hillary voters.
 
2012-11-03 05:25:00 PM  

Intel154: RminusQ: quatchi: I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney.

If that's what the WE are calling a Senior Political Analyst these days I'd hate to read what their newbs think.

/Unless this entire article was just some sort of twisted inside troll joke in order to win a drunken bar bet to see how many times he get away with repeating the word "Romney" in one piece and still get some outfit to publish it in which case ...*golf clap*!

"Who's going to win Washington?" "Romney." "Romney."
"Who would win a foosball game?" "Romney." "Romney."
"OK, next question. Romney vs. a hurricane. But the hurricane is named Hurricane Willard." "That's a tough one, but I'm gonna go with Romney." "I'm saying Romney too."

Glad I was not the only one who read his state by state "analysis" and thought Superfans.


Derek Jeter versus Pastor Maldonado in a biathalon (skiing/shooting), with the mayors of Carrington, North Dakota, USA; Kirsbach, Rheinland-Pfalz, Germany; Nurhak, Kahramanmaraş Province, Turkey; Naruto, Tokushima Prefecture, Japan; and Townsville, Queensland, Australia as the judges.

Winner: ROMNEY

/and yes, Naruto and Townsville are actual cities
 
2012-11-03 05:45:17 PM  
The Obama campaign is prepared to turn out a big student vote, but you don't see many Obama signs on campuses. Romney.

well that's good enough for me. Romney.
 
2012-11-03 05:45:40 PM  

dr_blasto: The simple fact is that unless the polls are statistically biased toward Obama, Romney has zero chance of winning.

I would guess final tally will have O winning 50.5 to 48% nationally. I expect Romney to win FL and possibly CO. OH and VA won't be called till very late, I expect OH to have some problems and I expect VA to have several reported irregularities that may drag out the call for longer than usual. The only way Romney wins the popular vote is if he overperforms in every one of his states like TX and the turnout in NYC is seriously affected by Sandy, making NY much closer than it would normally be.


California and Oregon polls close at 8:00 PST (11:00 EST). If Obama has 191 or more electoral votes before that time then he's a lock for re-election. California, Washington (which is all mail-in voting), Oregon, and Hawaii are worth a total of 79 EVs, and pretty much guaranteed to go to Obama.
 
2012-11-03 05:46:28 PM  
Walking shiatbag Newt Gingrich predicted a Romney landslide. The general tenor seemed to be that liberal Democrat liberals (who are liberal) are trying to steal the election with liberal lying liberal polls (that are liberal).

Considering the brilliant sparkle of that man's rhetoric, I can't imagine how he became a has-been, a punchline, a stale political fart lingering in the air.
 
2012-11-03 05:46:33 PM  

Richard Freckle: "Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That's bad news for Barack Obama."

That's bad news f...

WTF he started his article with a meme?


Yeah, that's how far I read so far. Literally LOL.
 
2012-11-03 06:01:42 PM  

whistleridge: I've already done this once maybe a month ago, but...let's look and see what the Fark headlines were showing about this time in 2008 (the election was November 3rd that year):

McCain takes a lead in North Carolina, Ohio and Missouri. This is what a comeback looks like(realclearpolitics.com) (11/02/08)

"John McCain is going to win this election, unless, of course, many voters stay home because they have been convinced by the media that McCain can't win or there is enough fraudulent voting to pad Obama's numbers"(americandaily.com) (11/02/08)

Obama and the liberal mainstream media leverage an obscure social phenomenon to cheat their way to a win. Luckily, it won't work(townhall.com) (11/01/08)

John McCain leads Barack Obama in new national poll(drudgereport.com) (11/01/08)

John McCain: I'm very happy with my 17% odds on Intrade(clusterstock.com) (10/31/08)

Another day, another Pennsylvania poll showing McCain gaining quickly(strategicvision.biz) (10/31/08)

Chuck Todd believes John McCain can, and will, win(msnbc.msn.com) (10/29/08)

Pew Center for Research confirms media bias against McCain(politico.com) (10/28/08)

Another day, another McCain spokesperson opens his mouth, another fact check gets done, another lie gets dragged into the light. And the world spins round and round(trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com) (10/28/08)

New poll shows that water is wet, the sun is hot and McCain retains support of white, highly religious voters(gallup.com) (10/27/08)

See the themes? It's almost scary, the degree to which the headlines from this go-round are utterly interchangeable with the last time we did this. With the sole exception of Ryan being somewhat more competent than Palin. Her headlines make for depressingly funny reading, in retrospect. Remind again how she managed to get that nod?


To be fair, I'm sure there were plenty of articles crowing about a Kerry win in 2004. Partisian columnists and talking heads try to keep their sides' spirits up. I'm sure most of them know Romney is going to lose, but there are local and state elections to think about and they don't want to depress voter turnout. I don't blame them for it. We Dems will be on the losing side again soon enough. Possibly even in 2016, as their is no real heir apparent to Obama. Biden's a bit of a joke, and I doubt Hillary will run again.
 
2012-11-03 06:11:37 PM  
Good morning children. Welcome to life. To begin class today we have two lessons.
1. You will need to be learning your entire life. Yes, your entire life.
2. There will be math.
 
2012-11-03 06:16:19 PM  

thamike: Got to the third patently false statement and stopped reading.


I got as far as "But it's also true that most voters oppose Obama's major policies and consider unsatisfactory the very sluggish economic recovery -- Friday's jobs report showed an unemployment uptick."

He offers an outright falsehood, an unsupported assertion (probably false, but let's be generous), and an intellectually dishonest distortion. That was all I needed.
 
2012-11-03 06:23:16 PM  

czetie: thamike: Got to the third patently false statement and stopped reading.

I got as far as "But it's also true that most voters oppose Obama's major policies and consider unsatisfactory the very sluggish economic recovery -- Friday's jobs report showed an unemployment uptick."

He offers an outright falsehood, an unsupported assertion (probably false, but let's be generous), and an intellectually dishonest distortion. That was all I needed.


That's the one.
 
2012-11-03 06:26:24 PM  

jso2897: vygramul: FlashHarry: dr_blasto: Even if Romney wins, Silver is still right.

well, yeah. an upset football game doesn't change the fact that the favored team was the probable winner. but if romney wins, it's an upset.

If the weather guy says there's a 20% chance of rain, and it rains, did that make him wrong and biased against rain?

Uh, actually, if it rains for roughly a fifth of the day, he's exactly right. Rain, unlike winning or losing an election, isn't an either/or proposition. The football analogy is better - someone wins, someone loses, and there are given probabilities of either of those things happening.


That's not how weather prediction works.
 
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