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(Washington Examiner)   Michael Barone tries to outdo Nate Silver; you already know where this is heading   ( washingtonexaminer.com) divider line
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4206 clicks; posted to Politics » on 03 Nov 2012 at 3:04 PM (4 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



119 Comments     (+0 »)
 
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2012-11-03 10:49:11 AM  
"...propose that the race is "too close to call." It isn't. If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public."

Can't say it any better than Mr. silver already did today.
 
2012-11-03 11:05:00 AM  
The simple fact is that unless the polls are statistically biased toward Obama, Romney has zero chance of winning.

I would guess final tally will have O winning 50.5 to 48% nationally. I expect Romney to win FL and possibly CO. OH and VA won't be called till very late, I expect OH to have some problems and I expect VA to have several reported irregularities that may drag out the call for longer than usual. The only way Romney wins the popular vote is if he overperforms in every one of his states like TX and the turnout in NYC is seriously affected by Sandy, making NY much closer than it would normally be.
 
2012-11-03 11:05:50 AM  
That reads as more of a wish list than any sort of real political analysis.
 
2012-11-03 11:25:28 AM  

Three Crooked Squirrels: That reads as more of a wish list than any sort of real political analysis.


Mr. Barone doesn't exactly have great non-partisan credentials:

Michael Barone is Senior Political Analyst for the Washington Examiner, co-author of The Almanac of American Politics and a contributor to Fox News

That, and I seriously doubt The Examiner pays its contributors. At least for their sake, I hope they don't.
 
2012-11-03 11:36:01 AM  
Just for reference, prior to the 2008 election, Michael Barone wrote two articles around late October and early November stating that McCain is surging due to tightening polls and that state polls for battleground states (and 114 Electoral Votes) are trending towards John McCain despite the national polls.

See link to US News and World Reports.
 
2012-11-03 12:12:36 PM  
Got to the third patently false statement and stopped reading.
 
2012-11-03 12:16:15 PM  

thamike: Got to the third patently false statement and stopped reading.


I made it all the way to him calling PA for Romney until I couldn't take any more. Then I had to take a Karen Silkwood shower.
 
2012-11-03 12:29:14 PM  
California (55) - Although most polls show this state comfortably in the Obama column, we all know the hippies will be home smoking their medical marijuana and forget to even vote. Romney.

New York (29) - All the bleeding-heart liberals in New York City are out of gas to drive to a polling station, and would be too busy recharging their iPhones to vote anyway. Upstate New York is all Republican. Romney.

Illinois (20) - I can't think of any way Romney could possibly win this state, but what about those four Americans who died in Benghazi? I bet there are enough corn farmers hoppin' mad over Benghazi to swing this state red. Romney.
 
2012-11-03 12:29:46 PM  
Aren't these men a little old to still be writing letters to Santa?
 
2012-11-03 12:33:12 PM  

Girl From The North Country: thamike: Got to the third patently false statement and stopped reading.

I made it all the way to him calling PA for Romney until I couldn't take any more. Then I had to take a Karen Silkwood shower.


Nice visual.
 
2012-11-03 12:37:02 PM  
...many think it would be bad if Americans were perceived as rejecting the first black president.

Wow, 2nd sentence.

But it's also true that most voters oppose Obama's major policies

No, that's lie.

So's the rest of rest of the piece.

Florida slayed though.

I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney.

If that's what the WE are calling a Senior Political Analyst these days I'd hate to read what their newbs think.

/Unless this entire article was just some sort of twisted inside troll joke in order to win a drunken bar bet to see how many times he get away with repeating the word "Romney" in one piece and still get some outfit to publish it in which case ...*golf clap*!
 
2012-11-03 12:41:12 PM  
Good luck with that...
 
2012-11-03 12:44:02 PM  
This is basically a rehash of the Unskewed Polls dude.
 
2012-11-03 12:48:36 PM  
Dear Michael Barone:

SHOW YOUR WORK
 
2012-11-03 01:08:34 PM  
North Carolina (15 electoral votes). Obama has abandoned this target. Romney.

Uh, speaking as a North Carolinian, I wouldn't call 'sending Michelle Obama, Bill Clinton, AND Jill Biden to campaign over the last weekend of the election' as 'abandoning' anything. Nor do I call the untold millions spent carpet-bombing our airways with ads to be abandonment either.

Romney leads by .5%, not exactly a commanding lead. Yes, he's likely to win, but let's put that i perspective: Obama's chances of taking our fair state are significantly higher than Romney's odds of winning the Presidency.
 
2012-11-03 01:27:15 PM  
So Nate uses math. This guy uses "I'm feeling like..."

OK.
 
2012-11-03 01:38:08 PM  
I haven't seen this much flailing since the T-1000 at the end of Terminator 2.
 
2012-11-03 01:52:07 PM  
The thing is that all this Republican butthurt over Nate Silver just makes him more and more credible, especially when your efforts to "refute" him are based on wishful thinking and total bullshiat.
 
2012-11-03 02:12:55 PM  

jake_lex: The thing is that all this Republican butthurt over Nate Silver just makes him more and more credible, especially when your efforts to "refute" him are based on wishful thinking and total bullshiat.


Also based on a complete misunderstanding of the concept of probability. Even if Romney wins, Silver is still right.
 
2012-11-03 02:13:27 PM  
Seriously, if writing bullshiat like this is all it takes to be a "senior political analyst" sign me up. I can write crap like this all day long.
 
2012-11-03 02:25:32 PM  

quatchi: I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney.

If that's what the WE are calling a Senior Political Analyst these days I'd hate to read what their newbs think.

/Unless this entire article was just some sort of twisted inside troll joke in order to win a drunken bar bet to see how many times he get away with repeating the word "Romney" in one piece and still get some outfit to publish it in which case ...*golf clap*!


"Who's going to win Washington?" "Romney." "Romney."
"Who would win a foosball game?" "Romney." "Romney."
"OK, next question. Romney vs. a hurricane. But the hurricane is named Hurricane Willard." "That's a tough one, but I'm gonna go with Romney." "I'm saying Romney too."
 
2012-11-03 02:38:37 PM  
Wisconsin (10). Recent polling is discouraging for Republicans. But Gov. Scott Walker handily survived the recall effort in June with a great organizational push. Democrats depend heavily on margins in inner-city Milwaukee (population down) and the Madison university community. But early voting is down in university towns in other states. The Obama campaign is prepared to turn out a big student vote, but you don't see many Obama signs on campuses. Romney.

Not that I would know or anything but Walker won because people in Wisconsin didn't agree with the recall attempt and wanted him to finish his term. You forget how many seats were flipped in the Wisconsin senate throughout the recall campaign. Also, you don't see as many Romney signs in peoples yards as you did Walker signs. Also I see a lot less Romney bumper stickers than I saw W'04 bumper stickers.

I won't say Obama has Wisconsin but Romney isn't a lock.
 
2012-11-03 02:42:15 PM  

dr_blasto: Even if Romney wins, Silver is still right.


well, yeah. an upset football game doesn't change the fact that the favored team was the probable winner. but if romney wins, it's an upset.
 
2012-11-03 02:54:35 PM  

FlashHarry: dr_blasto: Even if Romney wins, Silver is still right.

well, yeah. an upset football game doesn't change the fact that the favored team was the probable winner. but if romney wins, it's an upset.


If the weather guy says there's a 20% chance of rain, and it rains, did that make him wrong and biased against rain?
 
2012-11-03 03:00:38 PM  
"Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That's bad news for Barack Obama."

That's bad news f...

WTF he started his article with a meme?
 
2012-11-03 03:08:01 PM  

vygramul: FlashHarry: dr_blasto: Even if Romney wins, Silver is still right.

well, yeah. an upset football game doesn't change the fact that the favored team was the probable winner. but if romney wins, it's an upset.

If the weather guy says there's a 20% chance of rain, and it rains, did that make him wrong and biased against rain?


Who wins is close to meaningless to the accuracy of Nate's predictions.

He called the odds of 50 States and the popular vote. That's 51 data points to determine his accuracy.
 
2012-11-03 03:08:41 PM  
Not only do I want Obama to win because it'll be better for America, I want him to win so I don't have to listen to ignorant morons crow how a Romney win shows that Nate was a biased liberal and his models don't mean shiat, etc.
 
2012-11-03 03:09:10 PM  
...and then there is reality:

graphics8.nytimes.com
 
2012-11-03 03:09:15 PM  

RminusQ: "OK, next question. Romney vs. a hurricane. But the hurricane is named Hurricane Willard." "That's a tough one, but I'm gonna go with Romney." "I'm saying Romney too."


This pleases da superfans.
 
2012-11-03 03:09:20 PM  
Fundamentals apparently means "go with your gut despite mountains of evidence to the contrary."

Dumbass political hack is a dumbass political hack.
 
2012-11-03 03:13:14 PM  
Who should you listen to:

A) Person who makes prediction model way before the election starts. Uses that prediction model without changing it no matter what it says.

B) person who after all the data is in then decides what he wants to pick and choose to be the important data to come up with a conclusion he already supported.
 
2012-11-03 03:13:17 PM  

Girl From The North Country: "...propose that the race is "too close to call." It isn't. If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public."

Can't say it any better than Mr. silver already did today.


All these conservative sites that are predicting a Romney win are essentially saying that the state polls are weighted incorrectly. They have corrected that weighting based on their gut feeling, which is much more accurate than statistical analysis.
 
2012-11-03 03:15:56 PM  
Good lord, that article was written by a Pokemon.

Rom-romney! Ney! RomNEY!
 
2012-11-03 03:16:04 PM  

unyon: Girl From The North Country: thamike: Got to the third patently false statement and stopped reading.

I made it all the way to him calling PA for Romney until I couldn't take any more. Then I had to take a Karen Silkwood shower.

Nice visual.


I would contaminate her.
 
2012-11-03 03:16:19 PM  
As has been stated before, the GOP is merely previewing the butthurt talking points for this coming Wednesday morning.
 
2012-11-03 03:16:47 PM  
Stick to doing Pipedreams, you insufferable political hack.
 
2012-11-03 03:16:53 PM  

Richard Freckle: "Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That's bad news for Barack Obama."

That's bad news f...

WTF he started his article with a meme?


LOL. Someone will explain to him why that was farking dumb.

His next sentence is just racist.

"True, Americans want to think well of their presidents and many think it would be bad if Americans were perceived as rejecting the first black president."

Obama won because he was black. I also love it when he starts with "True,". Who the fark is he talking to?

"True, I am beloved by women around the world." No one farking said you were asshole. You can't affirm what hasn't been stated. Or worse, or presuming your farking idiot readers will think that point after reading your first sentence.

Racist author: "Obama is losing on fundamentals"

Readers: "But what about Obama being black helping him Professor dipshiat"

Racist dipshiat author: "True, ...."


No one is making that farking point for you to say "True" to . If you think Obama was elected because he was black, just farking say so you racist coward.
 
2012-11-03 03:18:50 PM  

A Dark Evil Omen: Good lord, that article was written by a Pokemon.

Rom-romney! Ney! RomNEY!


img.pokemondb.net

Slo-slo-Trickle down economics seems like a realistic description of how markets grow-slowpoooke.
 
2012-11-03 03:20:42 PM  

dr_blasto: The simple fact is that unless the polls are statistically biased toward Obama, Romney has zero chance of winning.

I would guess final tally will have O winning 50.5 to 48% nationally. I expect Romney to win FL and possibly CO. OH and VA won't be called till very late, I expect OH to have some problems and I expect VA to have several reported irregularities that may drag out the call for longer than usual. The only way Romney wins the popular vote is if he overperforms in every one of his states like TX and the turnout in NYC is seriously affected by Sandy, making NY much closer than it would normally be.


Nate would say 16.3% chance for Romney. 1: 6. Not zero. Romney has chances, and it's 1: 6.
 
2012-11-03 03:21:01 PM  
Darned skinny, foppish math experts with their maths. Nate is doing everyone's homework but the bullies still want to beat him up.
 
2012-11-03 03:26:58 PM  
Romney's people fired up about their candidate.

That's the part I don't see at all. Please show me, ANYWHERE, where a huge number of people have any enthusiasm whatsoever for R$ or his ticket.

People cheer at rallies. People always cheer at rallies.
 
2012-11-03 03:27:18 PM  
Iowa election markets are up to 74% for Obama.
 
2012-11-03 03:29:00 PM  

olomana: Darned skinny, foppish math experts with their maths. Nate is doing everyone's homework but the bullies still want to beat him up.


It's like speaking a foreign language - I see blank, clearly-not-getting-it expressions from people I work with when I talk about statistics and probability.

Hopefully Silver's work is pushing a few more people towards understanding the stuff.
 
2012-11-03 03:29:35 PM  

Richard Freckle: "Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That's bad news for Barack Obama."

That's bad news f...

WTF he started his article with a meme?


that's so fkn hilarious...
 
2012-11-03 03:29:56 PM  
Get a brain Barone
 
2012-11-03 03:30:34 PM  
what the fresh hell is this bullshyt

pagead2.googlesyndication.com 

how desperate do you have to be this scammy?
 
2012-11-03 03:30:39 PM  

PC LOAD LETTER: Dear Michael Barone:

SHOW YOUR WORK


And that is why Nate Silver is destroying the entire chattering class.
 
2012-11-03 03:31:05 PM  

dr_blasto: The simple fact is that unless the polls are statistically biased toward Obama, Romney has zero chance of winning.


The funny thing is that the right will do the knee-jerk response of screaming "liberal bias" but when Obama wins, they conveniently ignore what they just said and look for "fraud" because since their guy didn't win, "it must be fraud!!"
 
2012-11-03 03:31:35 PM  

dslknowitall: what the fresh hell is this bullshyt

[pagead2.googlesyndication.com image 300x250] 

how desperate do you have to be this scammy?


I've half way tempted to click on that.
 
2012-11-03 03:36:12 PM  
I've already done this once maybe a month ago, but...let's look and see what the Fark headlines were showing about this time in 2008 (the election was November 3rd that year):

McCain takes a lead in North Carolina, Ohio and Missouri. This is what a comeback looks like(realclearpolitics.com) (11/02/08)

"John McCain is going to win this election, unless, of course, many voters stay home because they have been convinced by the media that McCain can't win or there is enough fraudulent voting to pad Obama's numbers"(americandaily.com) (11/02/08)

Obama and the liberal mainstream media leverage an obscure social phenomenon to cheat their way to a win. Luckily, it won't work(townhall.com) (11/01/08)

John McCain leads Barack Obama in new national poll(drudgereport.com) (11/01/08)

John McCain: I'm very happy with my 17% odds on Intrade(clusterstock.com) (10/31/08)

Another day, another Pennsylvania poll showing McCain gaining quickly(strategicvision.biz) (10/31/08)

Chuck Todd believes John McCain can, and will, win(msnbc.msn.com) (10/29/08)

Pew Center for Research confirms media bias against McCain(politico.com) (10/28/08)

Another day, another McCain spokesperson opens his mouth, another fact check gets done, another lie gets dragged into the light. And the world spins round and round(trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com) (10/28/08)

New poll shows that water is wet, the sun is hot and McCain retains support of white, highly religious voters(gallup.com) (10/27/08)

See the themes? It's almost scary, the degree to which the headlines from this go-round are utterly interchangeable with the last time we did this. With the sole exception of Ryan being somewhat more competent than Palin. Her headlines make for depressingly funny reading, in retrospect. Remind again how she managed to get that nod?
 
2012-11-03 03:38:15 PM  

St_Francis_P: That, and I seriously doubt The Examiner pays its contributors. At least for their sake, I hope they don't.


A friend use to write a dating column for the Examiner. She got paid something like a tenth of a penny per page view. Think she made about twenty five dollars for the entire year of writing articles.
 
2012-11-03 03:39:04 PM  

whistleridge: Remind again how she managed to get that nod?


Because Romney.
 
2012-11-03 03:39:39 PM  
tl;dr
Obama leads in the polls for [insert state] but if more Romney voters vote than Obama voters Romney will win. Romney.
 
2012-11-03 03:40:58 PM  
It's win/(lose)win situation for conservative pundits. If Romney wins--and it's a possibility--their predictions are vindicated and scientific method/common sense takes a serious hit. On the other hand, if Obama wins the conservadits are primed for round two of the election: we was robbed! Look at all these web sites and talking heads who predicted a win for Romney! The Democrats must have stolen the election!

Once again I will push my latest idea: Write-In Romney! Mitt Romney doesn't deserve to be president, but he does deserve some recognition for all the hard work he's had other people put in on his behalf. While you should under no circumstances vote for him for president, there are doubtless many offices on your ballot --registrar of deeds, dog catcher -- which better suit his experience and expertise. Why not throw Willard a little bone and elect him Town Treasurer or to some other innocuous post where he can do little harm and perhaps add another couple of hundred dollars to to his IRA?

Mitt Romney for Dog Catcher in 2012!
 
2012-11-03 03:42:10 PM  

whistleridge: With the sole exception of Ryan being somewhat more competent than Palin


He totally disappeared after being booed by AARP
 
2012-11-03 03:44:00 PM  

ilambiquated: whistleridge: With the sole exception of Ryan being somewhat more competent than Palin

He totally disappeared after being booed by AARPannihilated by Biden in the Vice Presidential debate


FTFY
 
2012-11-03 03:46:20 PM  

dr_blasto: The simple fact is that unless the polls are statistically biased toward Obama, Romney has zero chance of winning.

I would guess final tally will have O winning 50.5 to 48% nationally. I expect Romney to win FL and possibly CO. OH and VA won't be called till very late, I expect OH to have some problems and I expect VA to have several reported irregularities that may drag out the call for longer than usual. The only way Romney wins the popular vote is if he overperforms in every one of his states like TX and the turnout in NYC is seriously affected by Sandy, making NY much closer than it would normally be.


The parts of SI that were most damaged are generally very red.
 
2012-11-03 03:46:35 PM  

ilambiquated: whistleridge: With the sole exception of Ryan being somewhat more competent than Palin

He totally disappeared after being booed by AARP


You'll notice that he hasn't been to very many swing states this past week. I find that very telling. He isn't going to Ohio at all. He'd probably be strung up.
 
2012-11-03 03:48:53 PM  

cameroncrazy1984: ilambiquated: whistleridge: With the sole exception of Ryan being somewhat more competent than Palin

He totally disappeared after being booed by AARP

You'll notice that he hasn't been to very many swing states this past week. I find that very telling. He isn't going to Ohio at all. He'd probably be strung up.


I personally think he wants a low-key role right now. That way, he doesn't suffer as much fallout from the coming (likely) loss, but he can still reap the rewards in the (increasingly unlikely) event of a win.
 
2012-11-03 03:49:51 PM  

syrynxx: New York (29) - All the bleeding-heart liberals in New York City are out of gas to drive to a polling station, and would be too busy recharging their iPhones to vote anyway. Upstate New York is all Republican. Romney.


My dad more or less believes that this might happen.
 
2012-11-03 03:50:29 PM  
I just saw this weird Super-Pac Banner Ad on YouTube

pagead2.googlesyndication.com 

Why is the stand-in women in this ad wearing a hoodie and a hat?
 
2012-11-03 03:52:22 PM  

unyon: Girl From The North Country: thamike: Got to the third patently false statement and stopped reading.

I made it all the way to him calling PA for Romney until I couldn't take any more. Then I had to take a Karen Silkwood shower.

Nice visual.


Great. Now I want to watch Silkwood.
 
2012-11-03 03:52:27 PM  

Sgeo: syrynxx: New York (29) - All the bleeding-heart liberals in New York City are out of gas to drive to a polling station, and would be too busy recharging their iPhones to vote anyway. Upstate New York is all Republican. Romney.

My dad more or less believes that this might happen.


That parses. "Hey, we just got farked in the ass, let's proactively make sure that the next time that happens, it's worse!"
 
2012-11-03 03:53:52 PM  
He fixes the cable?
 
2012-11-03 03:54:13 PM  

mrshowrules: Richard Freckle: "Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That's bad news for Barack Obama."

That's bad news f...

WTF he started his article with a meme?

LOL. Someone will explain to him why that was farking dumb.

His next sentence is just racist.

"True, Americans want to think well of their presidents and many think it would be bad if Americans were perceived as rejecting the first black president."

Obama won because he was black. I also love it when he starts with "True,". Who the fark is he talking to?

"True, I am beloved by women around the world." No one farking said you were asshole. You can't affirm what hasn't been stated. Or worse, or presuming your farking idiot readers will think that point after reading your first sentence.

Racist author: "Obama is losing on fundamentals"

Readers: "But what about Obama being black helping him Professor dipshiat"

Racist dipshiat author: "True, ...."


No one is making that farking point for you to say "True" to . If you think Obama was elected because he was black, just farking say so you racist coward.



Today's racism isn't the same as it used to be, it's evolved and what people should really try to understand is what "white privilege" is and how it winds its why into society. It's not so much he would have to admit he is racist, it's he has to admit that there is an unseen framework that supports his behaviors. Until people, especially white people, understand what privileges they have in society, not individually, will you see this stuff start to get better. I would implore people who read this and similar posts to really look into what "white privilege" is and then just walk around life and observe. I'm certainly not going to try to talk you into anything, it's something others will have to search and accept for themselves.

/off me soapbox now
 
2012-11-03 03:54:23 PM  

dslknowitall: what the fresh hell is this bullshyt

[pagead2.googlesyndication.com image 300x250] 

how desperate do you have to be this scammy?


i love how "yes" is red and "no" is green. they're not confident enough in their audience to even be honest about that.

this is why republicans are doomed to fail.
 
2012-11-03 03:55:24 PM  

jake_lex: The thing is that all this Republican butthurt over Nate Silver just makes him more and more credible, especially when your efforts to "refute" him are based on wishful thinking and total bullshiat.


It is stupid to write a column going all in for Romney at this point since it will be refuted within a couple days if your wrong. A credible author would included some type of disclaimer like "it is too early to know the impact of hurricane Sandy and that may help Obama".


dr_blasto: ven if Romney wins, Silver is still right.


Silver is only wrong if RON PAUL or some other 3rd party wins.
 
2012-11-03 03:57:41 PM  

Muta: It is stupid to write a column going all in for Romney at this point since it will be refuted within a couple days if your wrong. A credible author would included some type of disclaimer like "it is too early to know the impact of hurricane Sandy and that may help Obama".


But even saying that would be fatally impolitic.
 
2012-11-03 04:01:59 PM  

RminusQ: quatchi: I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney.

If that's what the WE are calling a Senior Political Analyst these days I'd hate to read what their newbs think.

/Unless this entire article was just some sort of twisted inside troll joke in order to win a drunken bar bet to see how many times he get away with repeating the word "Romney" in one piece and still get some outfit to publish it in which case ...*golf clap*!

"Who's going to win Washington?" "Romney." "Romney."
"Who would win a foosball game?" "Romney." "Romney."
"OK, next question. Romney vs. a hurricane. But the hurricane is named Hurricane Willard." "That's a tough one, but I'm gonna go with Romney." "I'm saying Romney too."


Glad I was not the only one who read his state by state "analysis" and thought Superfans.
 
2012-11-03 04:05:05 PM  

WorldCitizen: So Nate uses math. This guy uses "I'm feeling like..."

OK.


As always, liberals think, conservatives feel.
 
2012-11-03 04:05:12 PM  
This author is definitely right, it's not like he did this back in 2008 or anything....

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/barone/2008/09/16/mccain-has-the- a dvantage-over-obama-in-post-convention-polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/09/mccain_flies_his_ca m paign_past.html

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/barone/2008/10/08/tracking-polls- s how-different-pictures-of-obama-vs-mccain
 
2012-11-03 04:05:32 PM  

skykid: I just saw this weird Super-Pac Banner Ad on YouTube

Why is the stand-in women in this ad wearing a hoodie and a hat?


Because she doesn't want to be recognized next Wednesday?
 
2012-11-03 04:08:56 PM  
Urk, how lame it doesn't just recognize urls, sorry

Link

Link

Link
 
2012-11-03 04:10:12 PM  
"But it's also true that most voters oppose Obama's major policies "

This is factually inaccurate. When presented as single issues most voters agree with what Obama is done. It's just that as soon as you associate anything with Obama or democrats they start to derp.


"But just about every indicator suggests that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting"

Early voting disagrees. Being a bit less than 2008 numbers but still beating Republicans is not the same as doing badly.

The rest is pretty much "I have three statisticals".
 
2012-11-03 04:11:48 PM  

St_Francis_P: That, and I seriously doubt The Examiner pays its contributors. At least for their sake, I hope they don't.


EngineerAU: A friend use to write a dating column for the Examiner. She got paid something like a tenth of a penny per page view. Think she made about twenty five dollars for the entire year of writing articles.


I believe you're confusing The Examiner, which pays writers a fraction of a penny per page view, with The Washington Examiner, a DC newspaper given away for free in the Metro stations, and prized by the local homeless population for it's effectiveness as a blanket and as bum wipe.
 
2012-11-03 04:13:27 PM  

whistleridge: cameroncrazy1984: ilambiquated: whistleridge: With the sole exception of Ryan being somewhat more competent than Palin

He totally disappeared after being booed by AARP

You'll notice that he hasn't been to very many swing states this past week. I find that very telling. He isn't going to Ohio at all. He'd probably be strung up.

I personally think he wants a low-key role right now. That way, he doesn't suffer as much fallout from the coming (likely) loss, but he can still reap the rewards in the (increasingly unlikely) event of a win.


Probably true. I don't think Romney had an easy time finding a running mate.
 
2012-11-03 04:15:24 PM  

FlashHarry: dslknowitall: what the fresh hell is this bullshyt

[pagead2.googlesyndication.com image 300x250] 

how desperate do you have to be this scammy?

i love how "yes" is red and "no" is green. they're not confident enough in their audience to even be honest about that.

this is why republicans are doomed to fail.


It's also kinda funny that they assume their readers are so stupid they will fall for this.
 
2012-11-03 04:24:27 PM  
Talk is cheap. Show me a GOP cheer-leader who is willing to back up his prediction with a substantial bet on intrade. Put your money where your mouth is. Until you do, I'll pay attention to what the guy who made a living off of his predictions has to say.
 
2012-11-03 04:25:06 PM  

SquirrelODeath: Urk, how lame it doesn't just recognize urls, sorry

Link

Link

Link


Ha! He called McCain 342 in 08. Lolololololol
 
2012-11-03 04:27:57 PM  
I am waiting for the Des Moines Register to print the morning after paper announcing "Romney wins, offers Obama a job in the white house kitchen" headline.

Kind of like the Dewey beats Truman headline paper
 
2012-11-03 04:28:04 PM  

skykid: Why is the stand-in women in this ad wearing a hoodie and a hat?



I do that a lot. The hoodie and the hat solve different problems. The hoodie is warm and comfortable and the baseball cap hides unwashed hair. The hoodies hood doesn't hide unwashed hair well. The GOP is trying to appeal to the unwashed sperm funnel in that pic.
 
2012-11-03 04:32:03 PM  

ilambiquated: whistleridge: cameroncrazy1984: ilambiquated: whistleridge: With the sole exception of Ryan being somewhat more competent than Palin

He totally disappeared after being booed by AARP

You'll notice that he hasn't been to very many swing states this past week. I find that very telling. He isn't going to Ohio at all. He'd probably be strung up.

I personally think he wants a low-key role right now. That way, he doesn't suffer as much fallout from the coming (likely) loss, but he can still reap the rewards in the (increasingly unlikely) event of a win.

Probably true. I don't think Romney had an easy time finding a running mate.


Funny you should say that.
 
2012-11-03 04:38:21 PM  
There's going out on a limb and there's going out on a limb and sawing it off when you're still sitting there.
 
2012-11-03 04:38:46 PM  
Haha, the comments section reads like an infomercial. It's basically:

"I've always voted democrat, but this year I voted straight ticket republican! I am tired of this fraud in the white house!"
"I've been a lifelong liberal but n0bama has to go! I will vote against him and so will every other liberal I know! Never forget Benghazi!"
"Wow, who knew voting Republican could be this easy!"

Moderator: "That's right, and you get it all for the lowly price of $199.95!"
 
2012-11-03 04:40:00 PM  

JosephFinn: There's going out on a limb and there's going out on a limb and sawing it off when you're still sitting there.


And then there's sawing off your own limbs. And that's the GOP
 
2012-11-03 04:45:10 PM  
As an avid birdwatcher I would like to hear more about the elusive Northern Virginia Asian.
 
2012-11-03 05:03:31 PM  

Muta: jake_lex: The thing is that all this Republican butthurt over Nate Silver just makes him more and more credible, especially when your efforts to "refute" him are based on wishful thinking and total bullshiat.

It is stupid to write a column going all in for Romney at this point since it will be refuted within a couple days if your wrong. A credible author would included some type of disclaimer like "it is too early to know the impact of hurricane Sandy and that may help Obama".


Nah. If he's wrong, he goes in the big pile of people who were wrong and no one will remember in a few weeks, much less four years from now. On the off chance he's right, though, he gets hailed as a prophet and becomes trusted and respected for the next go round. People forget who was wrong, but the more absurd your prediction the more acclaim you'll get if it comes true.
 
2012-11-03 05:16:13 PM  

Two sentences in and you can tell it's all bullshiat:

That's bad news for Barack Obama.

That's bad news for Barack Obama.

That's bad news for Barack Obama.

That's bad news for Barack Obama.

 
2012-11-03 05:17:25 PM  

vygramul: FlashHarry: dr_blasto: Even if Romney wins, Silver is still right.

well, yeah. an upset football game doesn't change the fact that the favored team was the probable winner. but if romney wins, it's an upset.

If the weather guy says there's a 20% chance of rain, and it rains, did that make him wrong and biased against rain?


Uh, actually, if it rains for roughly a fifth of the day, he's exactly right. Rain, unlike winning or losing an election, isn't an either/or proposition. The football analogy is better - someone wins, someone loses, and there are given probabilities of either of those things happening.
 
2012-11-03 05:21:23 PM  

whistleridge: See the themes? It's almost scary, the degree to which the headlines from this go-round are utterly interchangeable with the last time we did this. With the sole exception of Ryan being somewhat more competent than Palin. Her headlines make for depressingly funny reading, in retrospect. Remind again how she managed to get that nod?


She has a vag, so of course she'd bring in the disgruntled Hillary voters.
 
2012-11-03 05:25:00 PM  

Intel154: RminusQ: quatchi: I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney.

If that's what the WE are calling a Senior Political Analyst these days I'd hate to read what their newbs think.

/Unless this entire article was just some sort of twisted inside troll joke in order to win a drunken bar bet to see how many times he get away with repeating the word "Romney" in one piece and still get some outfit to publish it in which case ...*golf clap*!

"Who's going to win Washington?" "Romney." "Romney."
"Who would win a foosball game?" "Romney." "Romney."
"OK, next question. Romney vs. a hurricane. But the hurricane is named Hurricane Willard." "That's a tough one, but I'm gonna go with Romney." "I'm saying Romney too."

Glad I was not the only one who read his state by state "analysis" and thought Superfans.


Derek Jeter versus Pastor Maldonado in a biathalon (skiing/shooting), with the mayors of Carrington, North Dakota, USA; Kirsbach, Rheinland-Pfalz, Germany; Nurhak, Kahramanmaraş Province, Turkey; Naruto, Tokushima Prefecture, Japan; and Townsville, Queensland, Australia as the judges.

Winner: ROMNEY

/and yes, Naruto and Townsville are actual cities
 
2012-11-03 05:45:17 PM  
The Obama campaign is prepared to turn out a big student vote, but you don't see many Obama signs on campuses. Romney.

well that's good enough for me. Romney.
 
2012-11-03 05:45:40 PM  

dr_blasto: The simple fact is that unless the polls are statistically biased toward Obama, Romney has zero chance of winning.

I would guess final tally will have O winning 50.5 to 48% nationally. I expect Romney to win FL and possibly CO. OH and VA won't be called till very late, I expect OH to have some problems and I expect VA to have several reported irregularities that may drag out the call for longer than usual. The only way Romney wins the popular vote is if he overperforms in every one of his states like TX and the turnout in NYC is seriously affected by Sandy, making NY much closer than it would normally be.


California and Oregon polls close at 8:00 PST (11:00 EST). If Obama has 191 or more electoral votes before that time then he's a lock for re-election. California, Washington (which is all mail-in voting), Oregon, and Hawaii are worth a total of 79 EVs, and pretty much guaranteed to go to Obama.
 
2012-11-03 05:46:28 PM  
Walking shiatbag Newt Gingrich predicted a Romney landslide. The general tenor seemed to be that liberal Democrat liberals (who are liberal) are trying to steal the election with liberal lying liberal polls (that are liberal).

Considering the brilliant sparkle of that man's rhetoric, I can't imagine how he became a has-been, a punchline, a stale political fart lingering in the air.
 
2012-11-03 05:46:33 PM  

Richard Freckle: "Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That's bad news for Barack Obama."

That's bad news f...

WTF he started his article with a meme?


Yeah, that's how far I read so far. Literally LOL.
 
2012-11-03 06:01:42 PM  

whistleridge: I've already done this once maybe a month ago, but...let's look and see what the Fark headlines were showing about this time in 2008 (the election was November 3rd that year):

McCain takes a lead in North Carolina, Ohio and Missouri. This is what a comeback looks like(realclearpolitics.com) (11/02/08)

"John McCain is going to win this election, unless, of course, many voters stay home because they have been convinced by the media that McCain can't win or there is enough fraudulent voting to pad Obama's numbers"(americandaily.com) (11/02/08)

Obama and the liberal mainstream media leverage an obscure social phenomenon to cheat their way to a win. Luckily, it won't work(townhall.com) (11/01/08)

John McCain leads Barack Obama in new national poll(drudgereport.com) (11/01/08)

John McCain: I'm very happy with my 17% odds on Intrade(clusterstock.com) (10/31/08)

Another day, another Pennsylvania poll showing McCain gaining quickly(strategicvision.biz) (10/31/08)

Chuck Todd believes John McCain can, and will, win(msnbc.msn.com) (10/29/08)

Pew Center for Research confirms media bias against McCain(politico.com) (10/28/08)

Another day, another McCain spokesperson opens his mouth, another fact check gets done, another lie gets dragged into the light. And the world spins round and round(trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com) (10/28/08)

New poll shows that water is wet, the sun is hot and McCain retains support of white, highly religious voters(gallup.com) (10/27/08)

See the themes? It's almost scary, the degree to which the headlines from this go-round are utterly interchangeable with the last time we did this. With the sole exception of Ryan being somewhat more competent than Palin. Her headlines make for depressingly funny reading, in retrospect. Remind again how she managed to get that nod?


To be fair, I'm sure there were plenty of articles crowing about a Kerry win in 2004. Partisian columnists and talking heads try to keep their sides' spirits up. I'm sure most of them know Romney is going to lose, but there are local and state elections to think about and they don't want to depress voter turnout. I don't blame them for it. We Dems will be on the losing side again soon enough. Possibly even in 2016, as their is no real heir apparent to Obama. Biden's a bit of a joke, and I doubt Hillary will run again.
 
2012-11-03 06:11:37 PM  
Good morning children. Welcome to life. To begin class today we have two lessons.
1. You will need to be learning your entire life. Yes, your entire life.
2. There will be math.
 
2012-11-03 06:16:19 PM  

thamike: Got to the third patently false statement and stopped reading.


I got as far as "But it's also true that most voters oppose Obama's major policies and consider unsatisfactory the very sluggish economic recovery -- Friday's jobs report showed an unemployment uptick."

He offers an outright falsehood, an unsupported assertion (probably false, but let's be generous), and an intellectually dishonest distortion. That was all I needed.
 
2012-11-03 06:23:16 PM  

czetie: thamike: Got to the third patently false statement and stopped reading.

I got as far as "But it's also true that most voters oppose Obama's major policies and consider unsatisfactory the very sluggish economic recovery -- Friday's jobs report showed an unemployment uptick."

He offers an outright falsehood, an unsupported assertion (probably false, but let's be generous), and an intellectually dishonest distortion. That was all I needed.


That's the one.
 
2012-11-03 06:26:24 PM  

jso2897: vygramul: FlashHarry: dr_blasto: Even if Romney wins, Silver is still right.

well, yeah. an upset football game doesn't change the fact that the favored team was the probable winner. but if romney wins, it's an upset.

If the weather guy says there's a 20% chance of rain, and it rains, did that make him wrong and biased against rain?

Uh, actually, if it rains for roughly a fifth of the day, he's exactly right. Rain, unlike winning or losing an election, isn't an either/or proposition. The football analogy is better - someone wins, someone loses, and there are given probabilities of either of those things happening.


That's not how weather prediction works.
 
2012-11-03 06:27:03 PM  

VictoryCabal: St_Francis_P: That, and I seriously doubt The Examiner pays its contributors. At least for their sake, I hope they don't.

EngineerAU: A friend use to write a dating column for the Examiner. She got paid something like a tenth of a penny per page view. Think she made about twenty five dollars for the entire year of writing articles.

I believe you're confusing The Examiner, which pays writers a fraction of a penny per page view, with The Washington Examiner, a DC newspaper given away for free in the Metro stations, and prized by the local homeless population for it's effectiveness as a blanket and as bum wipe.


They're owned by the same multi-billionaire and run basically the same tripe.

mrshowrules: Who wins is close to meaningless to the accuracy of Nate's predictions.

He called the odds of 50 States and the popular vote. That's 51 data points to determine his accuracy.


Looking at the odds is really not the best way to do an after-the-fact assessment of his performance, because the outputs are all 1's and 0's (and as he's noted, if he has the correct state winner on every single state, including all the ones he has as 60-40 propositions, that's not the optimal result). I think looking at his predicted margins is the better way to see if there's a bias.
 
2012-11-03 06:35:37 PM  
What I really wonder, is when Republican pundits say things like this, do they know in their head it is a total lie but they have to toe the party line no matter what, or have they convinced themselves it's really true?
 
2012-11-03 06:38:41 PM  
Republicans: Go back to 2008 and see what you were saying then.

Democrats: Go back to 2004 and see what you were saying then.

/Obama/Fartbongo is gonna win
//Be happy/get over it
 
2012-11-03 06:42:41 PM  

NobleHam: Muta: jake_lex: The thing is that all this Republican butthurt over Nate Silver just makes him more and more credible, especially when your efforts to "refute" him are based on wishful thinking and total bullshiat.

It is stupid to write a column going all in for Romney at this point since it will be refuted within a couple days if your wrong. A credible author would included some type of disclaimer like "it is too early to know the impact of hurricane Sandy and that may help Obama".

Nah. If he's wrong, he goes in the big pile of people who were wrong and no one will remember in a few weeks, much less four years from now. On the off chance he's right, though, he gets hailed as a prophet and becomes trusted and respected for the next go round. People forget who was wrong, but the more absurd your prediction the more acclaim you'll get if it comes true.


He was embarrassingly wrong 4 years ago, predicting a McCain blowout. As you point out, that didn't mean dick. As long as he can get people to read and WANT to believe, he'll still keep making money for being an idiot.
 
2012-11-03 06:44:11 PM  

RminusQ: Looking at the odds is really not the best way to do an after-the-fact assessment of his performance, because the outputs are all 1's and 0's (and as he's noted, if he has the correct state winner on every single state, including all the ones he has as 60-40 propositions, that's not the optimal result). I think looking at his predicted margins is the better way to see if there's a bias.


I said much the same thing in a thread yesterday, only more verbosely and less eloquently. It's also the only thing that informs about Nate's ability in the future to call other tight races. Another reason to hold Nate to this standard is that it's the same standard he holds pollsters to in evaluating their performance.

Incidentally, a popular right-wing talking point in the campaign to discredit Nate is to claim that "in 2008 anybody could have called the winner in nearly all the states", which of course -- probably deliberately -- misses the point.

By the way, in addition to the margins in the individual states, Nate (and PEC and others) are also forecasting the various Senate races, so that's another couple of handfuls of data points..
 
2012-11-03 06:50:57 PM  

RminusQ: mrshowrules: Who wins is close to meaningless to the accuracy of Nate's predictions.

He called the odds of 50 States and the popular vote. That's 51 data points to determine his accuracy.

Looking at the odds is really not the best way to do an after-the-fact assessment of his performance, because the outputs are all 1's and 0's (and as he's noted, if he has the correct state winner on every single state, including all the ones he has as 60-40 propositions, that's not the optimal result). I think looking at his predicted margins is the better way to see if there's a bias.


His accuracy on the 51 data points is what I meant. Wins/losses are not really relevant. However, if your accuracy is close, you will get most of your wins/losses correct as well. He got 49/50 in the 2008 election. He also did really well in 2010.
 
2012-11-03 06:59:19 PM  

vygramul: jso2897: vygramul: FlashHarry: dr_blasto: Even if Romney wins, Silver is still right.

well, yeah. an upset football game doesn't change the fact that the favored team was the probable winner. but if romney wins, it's an upset.

If the weather guy says there's a 20% chance of rain, and it rains, did that make him wrong and biased against rain?

Uh, actually, if it rains for roughly a fifth of the day, he's exactly right. Rain, unlike winning or losing an election, isn't an either/or proposition. The football analogy is better - someone wins, someone loses, and there are given probabilities of either of those things happening.

That's not how weather prediction works.


You are not allowed to say that without posting an image of Morbo chewing out the crying anchorwoman.,
 
2012-11-03 07:02:17 PM  

Corvus: Who should you listen to:

A) Person who makes prediction model way before the election starts. Uses that prediction model without changing it no matter what it says.

B) person who after all the data is in then decides what he wants to pick and choose to be the important data to come up with a conclusion he already supported.


Trick question!

There is no way to judge the validity of their methods without knowing which one provides the answer I want.
 
2012-11-03 07:23:29 PM  

Kevin72: dr_blasto: The simple fact is that unless the polls are statistically biased toward Obama, Romney has zero chance of winning.

I would guess final tally will have O winning 50.5 to 48% nationally. I expect Romney to win FL and possibly CO. OH and VA won't be called till very late, I expect OH to have some problems and I expect VA to have several reported irregularities that may drag out the call for longer than usual. The only way Romney wins the popular vote is if he overperforms in every one of his states like TX and the turnout in NYC is seriously affected by Sandy, making NY much closer than it would normally be.

Nate would say 16.3% chance for Romney. 1: 6. Not zero. Romney has chances, and it's 1: 6.


And Nate would be correct.

IF the polls are right, Romney cannot win. That 16.3% probability represents the probability that the polls are incorrect; Obama leads in every one today. Those polls would have to all have critical errors for Romney to win.
 
2012-11-03 07:24:34 PM  

cameroncrazy1984: ilambiquated: whistleridge: With the sole exception of Ryan being somewhat more competent than Palin

He totally disappeared after being booed by AARP

You'll notice that he hasn't been to very many swing states this past week. I find that very telling. He isn't going to Ohio at all. He'd probably be strung up.


Never have I seen a Presidential candidate so reluctant to have his VP choice campaign for him. Even McCain had Palin on the road and conducting rallies right to election day. Ryan has been not in the spotlight for weeks now.
 
2012-11-03 07:48:19 PM  

eddiesocket: To be fair, I'm sure there were plenty of articles crowing about a Kerry win in 2004.


To be fair, I remember being optimistic about my state in 04 and depressed about the overall - particularly when I was watching Stewart pleading for people to get to the polls the day before the election. Somehow I remember the undertone of desperation there that matched my own perfectly. And I was right, sadly enough.

Oh, except my state voted for Kerry and also voted to ban gay marriage. That actually *shouldn't* have surprised me, but I lived in a nice college bubble, so it kinda did.
 
2012-11-03 07:54:26 PM  
Seriously I am getting damned tired of Republican bald facing lying trying to put the results of their congressional stone walling slowing the recovery to a crawl on Obama when they own it 100% .
 
2012-11-03 07:55:38 PM  

Corvus: Who should you listen to:

A) Person who makes prediction model way before the election starts. Uses that prediction model without changing it no matter what it says.

B) person who after all the data is in then decides what he wants to pick and choose to be the important data to come up with a conclusion he already supported.



So, what saying is that the person A above, is very much like a Republican, who steadfastly refuses to budge from their original theories....and person B is a Democrat, who deals with mo nuanced replies to the current and ever-changing situations?
 
2012-11-03 09:32:57 PM  
So he will resign as senior political analyst if Obama wins?

/Of course not. Talking head never hide their faces in shame no matter how wrong they are.
 
2012-11-03 10:45:16 PM  

syrynxx: California (55) - Although most polls show this state comfortably in the Obama column, we all know the hippies will be home smoking their medical marijuana and forget to even vote. Romney.

New York (29) - All the bleeding-heart liberals in New York City are out of gas to drive to a polling station, and would be too busy recharging their iPhones to vote anyway. Upstate New York is all Republican. Romney.

Illinois (20) - I can't think of any way Romney could possibly win this state, but what about those four Americans who died in Benghazi? I bet there are enough corn farmers hoppin' mad over Benghazi to swing this state red. Romney.


OK, the first two was somewhat predictable. But Kudos for the 3rd one.

Good job.
 
2012-11-03 10:53:53 PM  
blog.eogn.comhealth.usnews.com

The above pictures read Romney, therefore he wins.

/A better logic than TFA.
 
2012-11-04 02:09:52 AM  

LouDobbsAwaaaay: Talk is cheap. Show me a GOP cheer-leader who is willing to back up his prediction with a substantial bet on intrade. Put your money where your mouth is. Until you do, I'll pay attention to what the guy who made a living off of his predictions has to say.


At this point I'm just sick and tired of Republicans in general. How long have they been running for the presidency, again? How long have they been campaigning instead of fixing problems they created? At this point, I simply don't care what their lying shills say anyway. We all know that nobody really supports Republican policies or even Republicans themselves, it's all just repetition from narrow-minded people who don't even know what the Republicans stand for anyway. At this point it's not even a real conversation, it's just voting against ignorance and bigotry. Everything a Republican says is a farking lie. You don't even have to look it up anymore. They're all a bunch of liars who don't deserve to be walking free on the streets, much less with any degree of actual power.

I'm not even angry about it, I just realize that the only thing elections should be about is throwing Republicans and their sycophants out of power and it's going to take a few cycles. Once everybody realizes this, America will be a better place. We don't need the Republican Party anymore. Nobody does. It stands for nothing but obstruction and everybody involved is a waste of flesh, time, and effort.
 
2012-11-04 05:05:24 AM  
Someone where I work always puts on Fox News in the break room.

While I was trying to eat, I semi-watched this tool Barone being interviewed with his "prediction."

I wonder if he turns out wrong if Fox News will have him back... Probably. But to call him on his crap? Probably not.
 
2012-11-04 07:57:47 AM  
FTFA:
Ohio (18). The anti-Romney auto bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland's Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don't mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney.

Sorry, dude, they shot their wad on the "Let's screw over the gheys!" amendment to the Ohio Constitution in 2004. They don't have any similar ballot initiatives to get out the evangelical voters.

Certainly nothing that will make them hold their noses and vote for a Mormon.

(Officially the only up side to having my state vote heavily for intolerance... 8 years ago.)
 
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