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(Washington Examiner)   Michael Barone tries to outdo Nate Silver; you already know where this is heading   (washingtonexaminer.com) divider line 119
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4195 clicks; posted to Politics » on 03 Nov 2012 at 3:04 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-03 10:49:11 AM
"...propose that the race is "too close to call." It isn't. If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public."

Can't say it any better than Mr. silver already did today.
 
2012-11-03 11:05:00 AM
The simple fact is that unless the polls are statistically biased toward Obama, Romney has zero chance of winning.

I would guess final tally will have O winning 50.5 to 48% nationally. I expect Romney to win FL and possibly CO. OH and VA won't be called till very late, I expect OH to have some problems and I expect VA to have several reported irregularities that may drag out the call for longer than usual. The only way Romney wins the popular vote is if he overperforms in every one of his states like TX and the turnout in NYC is seriously affected by Sandy, making NY much closer than it would normally be.
 
2012-11-03 11:05:50 AM
That reads as more of a wish list than any sort of real political analysis.
 
2012-11-03 11:25:28 AM

Three Crooked Squirrels: That reads as more of a wish list than any sort of real political analysis.


Mr. Barone doesn't exactly have great non-partisan credentials:

Michael Barone is Senior Political Analyst for the Washington Examiner, co-author of The Almanac of American Politics and a contributor to Fox News

That, and I seriously doubt The Examiner pays its contributors. At least for their sake, I hope they don't.
 
2012-11-03 11:36:01 AM
Just for reference, prior to the 2008 election, Michael Barone wrote two articles around late October and early November stating that McCain is surging due to tightening polls and that state polls for battleground states (and 114 Electoral Votes) are trending towards John McCain despite the national polls.

See link to US News and World Reports.
 
2012-11-03 12:12:36 PM
Got to the third patently false statement and stopped reading.
 
2012-11-03 12:16:15 PM

thamike: Got to the third patently false statement and stopped reading.


I made it all the way to him calling PA for Romney until I couldn't take any more. Then I had to take a Karen Silkwood shower.
 
2012-11-03 12:29:14 PM
California (55) - Although most polls show this state comfortably in the Obama column, we all know the hippies will be home smoking their medical marijuana and forget to even vote. Romney.

New York (29) - All the bleeding-heart liberals in New York City are out of gas to drive to a polling station, and would be too busy recharging their iPhones to vote anyway. Upstate New York is all Republican. Romney.

Illinois (20) - I can't think of any way Romney could possibly win this state, but what about those four Americans who died in Benghazi? I bet there are enough corn farmers hoppin' mad over Benghazi to swing this state red. Romney.
 
2012-11-03 12:29:46 PM
Aren't these men a little old to still be writing letters to Santa?
 
2012-11-03 12:33:12 PM

Girl From The North Country: thamike: Got to the third patently false statement and stopped reading.

I made it all the way to him calling PA for Romney until I couldn't take any more. Then I had to take a Karen Silkwood shower.


Nice visual.
 
2012-11-03 12:37:02 PM
...many think it would be bad if Americans were perceived as rejecting the first black president.

Wow, 2nd sentence.

But it's also true that most voters oppose Obama's major policies

No, that's lie.

So's the rest of rest of the piece.

Florida slayed though.

I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney.

If that's what the WE are calling a Senior Political Analyst these days I'd hate to read what their newbs think.

/Unless this entire article was just some sort of twisted inside troll joke in order to win a drunken bar bet to see how many times he get away with repeating the word "Romney" in one piece and still get some outfit to publish it in which case ...*golf clap*!
 
2012-11-03 12:41:12 PM
Good luck with that...
 
2012-11-03 12:44:02 PM
This is basically a rehash of the Unskewed Polls dude.
 
2012-11-03 12:48:36 PM
Dear Michael Barone:

SHOW YOUR WORK
 
2012-11-03 01:08:34 PM
North Carolina (15 electoral votes). Obama has abandoned this target. Romney.

Uh, speaking as a North Carolinian, I wouldn't call 'sending Michelle Obama, Bill Clinton, AND Jill Biden to campaign over the last weekend of the election' as 'abandoning' anything. Nor do I call the untold millions spent carpet-bombing our airways with ads to be abandonment either.

Romney leads by .5%, not exactly a commanding lead. Yes, he's likely to win, but let's put that i perspective: Obama's chances of taking our fair state are significantly higher than Romney's odds of winning the Presidency.
 
2012-11-03 01:27:15 PM
So Nate uses math. This guy uses "I'm feeling like..."

OK.
 
2012-11-03 01:38:08 PM
I haven't seen this much flailing since the T-1000 at the end of Terminator 2.
 
2012-11-03 01:52:07 PM
The thing is that all this Republican butthurt over Nate Silver just makes him more and more credible, especially when your efforts to "refute" him are based on wishful thinking and total bullshiat.
 
2012-11-03 02:12:55 PM

jake_lex: The thing is that all this Republican butthurt over Nate Silver just makes him more and more credible, especially when your efforts to "refute" him are based on wishful thinking and total bullshiat.


Also based on a complete misunderstanding of the concept of probability. Even if Romney wins, Silver is still right.
 
2012-11-03 02:13:27 PM
Seriously, if writing bullshiat like this is all it takes to be a "senior political analyst" sign me up. I can write crap like this all day long.
 
2012-11-03 02:25:32 PM

quatchi: I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney.

If that's what the WE are calling a Senior Political Analyst these days I'd hate to read what their newbs think.

/Unless this entire article was just some sort of twisted inside troll joke in order to win a drunken bar bet to see how many times he get away with repeating the word "Romney" in one piece and still get some outfit to publish it in which case ...*golf clap*!


"Who's going to win Washington?" "Romney." "Romney."
"Who would win a foosball game?" "Romney." "Romney."
"OK, next question. Romney vs. a hurricane. But the hurricane is named Hurricane Willard." "That's a tough one, but I'm gonna go with Romney." "I'm saying Romney too."
 
2012-11-03 02:38:37 PM
Wisconsin (10). Recent polling is discouraging for Republicans. But Gov. Scott Walker handily survived the recall effort in June with a great organizational push. Democrats depend heavily on margins in inner-city Milwaukee (population down) and the Madison university community. But early voting is down in university towns in other states. The Obama campaign is prepared to turn out a big student vote, but you don't see many Obama signs on campuses. Romney.

Not that I would know or anything but Walker won because people in Wisconsin didn't agree with the recall attempt and wanted him to finish his term. You forget how many seats were flipped in the Wisconsin senate throughout the recall campaign. Also, you don't see as many Romney signs in peoples yards as you did Walker signs. Also I see a lot less Romney bumper stickers than I saw W'04 bumper stickers.

I won't say Obama has Wisconsin but Romney isn't a lock.
 
2012-11-03 02:42:15 PM

dr_blasto: Even if Romney wins, Silver is still right.


well, yeah. an upset football game doesn't change the fact that the favored team was the probable winner. but if romney wins, it's an upset.
 
2012-11-03 02:54:35 PM

FlashHarry: dr_blasto: Even if Romney wins, Silver is still right.

well, yeah. an upset football game doesn't change the fact that the favored team was the probable winner. but if romney wins, it's an upset.


If the weather guy says there's a 20% chance of rain, and it rains, did that make him wrong and biased against rain?
 
2012-11-03 03:00:38 PM
"Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That's bad news for Barack Obama."

That's bad news f...

WTF he started his article with a meme?
 
2012-11-03 03:08:01 PM

vygramul: FlashHarry: dr_blasto: Even if Romney wins, Silver is still right.

well, yeah. an upset football game doesn't change the fact that the favored team was the probable winner. but if romney wins, it's an upset.

If the weather guy says there's a 20% chance of rain, and it rains, did that make him wrong and biased against rain?


Who wins is close to meaningless to the accuracy of Nate's predictions.

He called the odds of 50 States and the popular vote. That's 51 data points to determine his accuracy.
 
2012-11-03 03:08:41 PM
Not only do I want Obama to win because it'll be better for America, I want him to win so I don't have to listen to ignorant morons crow how a Romney win shows that Nate was a biased liberal and his models don't mean shiat, etc.
 
2012-11-03 03:09:10 PM
...and then there is reality:

graphics8.nytimes.com
 
2012-11-03 03:09:15 PM

RminusQ: "OK, next question. Romney vs. a hurricane. But the hurricane is named Hurricane Willard." "That's a tough one, but I'm gonna go with Romney." "I'm saying Romney too."


This pleases da superfans.
 
2012-11-03 03:09:20 PM
Fundamentals apparently means "go with your gut despite mountains of evidence to the contrary."

Dumbass political hack is a dumbass political hack.
 
2012-11-03 03:13:14 PM
Who should you listen to:

A) Person who makes prediction model way before the election starts. Uses that prediction model without changing it no matter what it says.

B) person who after all the data is in then decides what he wants to pick and choose to be the important data to come up with a conclusion he already supported.
 
2012-11-03 03:13:17 PM

Girl From The North Country: "...propose that the race is "too close to call." It isn't. If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can't acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public."

Can't say it any better than Mr. silver already did today.


All these conservative sites that are predicting a Romney win are essentially saying that the state polls are weighted incorrectly. They have corrected that weighting based on their gut feeling, which is much more accurate than statistical analysis.
 
2012-11-03 03:15:56 PM
Good lord, that article was written by a Pokemon.

Rom-romney! Ney! RomNEY!
 
2012-11-03 03:16:04 PM

unyon: Girl From The North Country: thamike: Got to the third patently false statement and stopped reading.

I made it all the way to him calling PA for Romney until I couldn't take any more. Then I had to take a Karen Silkwood shower.

Nice visual.


I would contaminate her.
 
2012-11-03 03:16:19 PM
As has been stated before, the GOP is merely previewing the butthurt talking points for this coming Wednesday morning.
 
2012-11-03 03:16:47 PM
Stick to doing Pipedreams, you insufferable political hack.
 
2012-11-03 03:16:53 PM

Richard Freckle: "Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That's bad news for Barack Obama."

That's bad news f...

WTF he started his article with a meme?


LOL. Someone will explain to him why that was farking dumb.

His next sentence is just racist.

"True, Americans want to think well of their presidents and many think it would be bad if Americans were perceived as rejecting the first black president."

Obama won because he was black. I also love it when he starts with "True,". Who the fark is he talking to?

"True, I am beloved by women around the world." No one farking said you were asshole. You can't affirm what hasn't been stated. Or worse, or presuming your farking idiot readers will think that point after reading your first sentence.

Racist author: "Obama is losing on fundamentals"

Readers: "But what about Obama being black helping him Professor dipshiat"

Racist dipshiat author: "True, ...."


No one is making that farking point for you to say "True" to . If you think Obama was elected because he was black, just farking say so you racist coward.
 
2012-11-03 03:18:50 PM

A Dark Evil Omen: Good lord, that article was written by a Pokemon.

Rom-romney! Ney! RomNEY!


img.pokemondb.net

Slo-slo-Trickle down economics seems like a realistic description of how markets grow-slowpoooke.
 
2012-11-03 03:20:42 PM

dr_blasto: The simple fact is that unless the polls are statistically biased toward Obama, Romney has zero chance of winning.

I would guess final tally will have O winning 50.5 to 48% nationally. I expect Romney to win FL and possibly CO. OH and VA won't be called till very late, I expect OH to have some problems and I expect VA to have several reported irregularities that may drag out the call for longer than usual. The only way Romney wins the popular vote is if he overperforms in every one of his states like TX and the turnout in NYC is seriously affected by Sandy, making NY much closer than it would normally be.


Nate would say 16.3% chance for Romney. 1: 6. Not zero. Romney has chances, and it's 1: 6.
 
2012-11-03 03:21:01 PM
Darned skinny, foppish math experts with their maths. Nate is doing everyone's homework but the bullies still want to beat him up.
 
2012-11-03 03:26:58 PM
Romney's people fired up about their candidate.

That's the part I don't see at all. Please show me, ANYWHERE, where a huge number of people have any enthusiasm whatsoever for R$ or his ticket.

People cheer at rallies. People always cheer at rallies.
 
2012-11-03 03:27:18 PM
Iowa election markets are up to 74% for Obama.
 
2012-11-03 03:29:00 PM

olomana: Darned skinny, foppish math experts with their maths. Nate is doing everyone's homework but the bullies still want to beat him up.


It's like speaking a foreign language - I see blank, clearly-not-getting-it expressions from people I work with when I talk about statistics and probability.

Hopefully Silver's work is pushing a few more people towards understanding the stuff.
 
2012-11-03 03:29:35 PM

Richard Freckle: "Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That's bad news for Barack Obama."

That's bad news f...

WTF he started his article with a meme?


that's so fkn hilarious...
 
2012-11-03 03:29:56 PM
Get a brain Barone
 
2012-11-03 03:30:34 PM
what the fresh hell is this bullshyt

pagead2.googlesyndication.com 

how desperate do you have to be this scammy?
 
2012-11-03 03:30:39 PM

PC LOAD LETTER: Dear Michael Barone:

SHOW YOUR WORK


And that is why Nate Silver is destroying the entire chattering class.
 
2012-11-03 03:31:05 PM

dr_blasto: The simple fact is that unless the polls are statistically biased toward Obama, Romney has zero chance of winning.


The funny thing is that the right will do the knee-jerk response of screaming "liberal bias" but when Obama wins, they conveniently ignore what they just said and look for "fraud" because since their guy didn't win, "it must be fraud!!"
 
2012-11-03 03:31:35 PM

dslknowitall: what the fresh hell is this bullshyt

[pagead2.googlesyndication.com image 300x250] 

how desperate do you have to be this scammy?


I've half way tempted to click on that.
 
2012-11-03 03:36:12 PM
I've already done this once maybe a month ago, but...let's look and see what the Fark headlines were showing about this time in 2008 (the election was November 3rd that year):

McCain takes a lead in North Carolina, Ohio and Missouri. This is what a comeback looks like(realclearpolitics.com) (11/02/08)

"John McCain is going to win this election, unless, of course, many voters stay home because they have been convinced by the media that McCain can't win or there is enough fraudulent voting to pad Obama's numbers"(americandaily.com) (11/02/08)

Obama and the liberal mainstream media leverage an obscure social phenomenon to cheat their way to a win. Luckily, it won't work(townhall.com) (11/01/08)

John McCain leads Barack Obama in new national poll(drudgereport.com) (11/01/08)

John McCain: I'm very happy with my 17% odds on Intrade(clusterstock.com) (10/31/08)

Another day, another Pennsylvania poll showing McCain gaining quickly(strategicvision.biz) (10/31/08)

Chuck Todd believes John McCain can, and will, win(msnbc.msn.com) (10/29/08)

Pew Center for Research confirms media bias against McCain(politico.com) (10/28/08)

Another day, another McCain spokesperson opens his mouth, another fact check gets done, another lie gets dragged into the light. And the world spins round and round(trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com) (10/28/08)

New poll shows that water is wet, the sun is hot and McCain retains support of white, highly religious voters(gallup.com) (10/27/08)

See the themes? It's almost scary, the degree to which the headlines from this go-round are utterly interchangeable with the last time we did this. With the sole exception of Ryan being somewhat more competent than Palin. Her headlines make for depressingly funny reading, in retrospect. Remind again how she managed to get that nod?
 
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