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(The New York Times)   The number of battleground states are rapidly shrinking, In 1960, Kennedy and Nixon personally campaigned in 49 and 50 states respectively. This year the candidates have only gone to 10   (nytimes.com) divider line 116
    More: Interesting, swing states, 35th state, 49th state, demographic transformation  
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1089 clicks; posted to Politics » on 03 Nov 2012 at 1:38 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-03 11:36:37 AM  
Shirking?
 
2012-11-03 01:37:37 PM  
A third option is the National Popular Vote plan, the initiative proposed by Mr. Koza. Eight states and the District of Columbia have pledged their electoral votes - representing 49 percent of the required majority of 270 - to the candidate who wins the national popular vote.

Not gonna happen.
 
2012-11-03 01:42:37 PM  
The partisans are more partisan... the odds of a Dem taking Texas are staggeringly low... you don't get to biatch about candidates not visiting your state when the population of your state commits to party line votes before they even know who the candidates are.
 
2012-11-03 01:42:41 PM  
Obama put thousands of coal miners in Kentucky out of a job, visiting that state would be a waste of time.
 
2012-11-03 01:44:12 PM  
This is one reason I really hope Obama at least wins FL, OH and CO. If he scrapes by with the North East and West Coast only we end up with a president elected by a very regionally polarized electorate. IMO it would be good for the country to have states from all corners of the country contribute to his electoral college tally.

That said - I won't complain if he wins even by a single electoral college vote.
 
2012-11-03 01:44:25 PM  

smitty04: Obama put thousands of coal miners billions of everybody in Kentucky everywhere out of a job, visiting that state anywhere but brainwashed libville would be a waste of time.

 

FTFY
 
2012-11-03 01:44:39 PM  
It wasn't that long ago when Republicans could win in California. 1988 being the last time. Flash forward to now and you can just write off that whole state for the Republicans.
 
2012-11-03 01:45:14 PM  
True for this year, but recall how Obama opened up more states in 2008 than there had been in 2004.

I think the partisan nature is going to burn itself out after this election. The Republican Party is going to lose too many angry old white men in the next four years and will see internal reform away from the right wing to a milder form of conservatism. Christie's humbled political edge in the face of the Hurricane Sandy is a good sign that some on the pragmatic edge of the Republican Party will begin to ditch the Tea Party
 
2012-11-03 01:47:37 PM  

The Evil That Lies In The Hearts Of Men: This is one reason I really hope Obama at least wins FL, OH and CO. If he scrapes by with the North East and West Coast only we end up with a president elected by a very regionally polarized electorate. IMO it would be good for the country to have states from all corners of the country contribute to his electoral college tally.

That said - I won't complain if he wins even by a single electoral college vote.


And if Romney wins it'll be on the ragged edge of an ultra polarized south and mid-west regional electorate. It's the current state of things.
 
2012-11-03 01:49:46 PM  

smitty04: ObamaCheap natural gas put thousands of coal miners in Kentucky out of a job but dumbasses blame Obama, visiting that state would be a waste of time.

 
2012-11-03 01:51:00 PM  

Ed Willy: True for this year, but recall how Obama opened up more states in 2008 than there had been in 2004.

I think the partisan nature is going to burn itself out after this election. The Republican Party is going to lose too many angry old white men in the next four years and will see internal reform away from the right wing to a milder form of conservatism. Christie's humbled political edge in the face of the Hurricane Sandy is a good sign that some on the pragmatic edge of the Republican Party will begin to ditch the Tea Party


Huntsman/Christie 2016!!

/I'd vote for that
 
2012-11-03 01:51:29 PM  
It is just the way our political system is designed. When you have a blindly partisan country, then you're only wasting time and energy going to places where the vote is more than a couple percent from tied. I am surprised that policy hasn't followed suit, that Republicans have not essentially campaigned on " screw California" and Democrats on " screw Texas".
 
2012-11-03 01:53:06 PM  

The Evil That Lies In The Hearts Of Men: This is one reason I really hope Obama at least wins FL, OH and CO. If he scrapes by with the North East and West Coast only we end up with a president elected by a very regionally polarized electorate. IMO it would be good for the country to have states from all corners of the country contribute to his electoral college tally.


You realize there's no conceivable way Romney could win without FL right? OH and CO are more or less leaning Obama anyway (at least according to recent data). Romney also needs NH if he loses OH. He'll probably lose NH too, which screws him over. There are 3 states that he needs, and only one of them does he really have a shot at winning, but that margin grows thinner each day
 
2012-11-03 01:53:08 PM  

Ed Willy: True for this year, but recall how Obama opened up more states in 2008 than there had been in 2004.


Yep, 7 more
 
2012-11-03 01:53:27 PM  

Ed Willy: Christie's humbled political edge in the face of the Hurricane Sandy is a good sign that some on the pragmatic edge of the Republican Party will begin to ditch the Tea Party


Obama prefers that Governors be humble if they expect any of his stash, he has a reputation for helping his friends (Solyndra).
 
2012-11-03 01:54:22 PM  

firefly212: The partisans are more partisan... the odds of a Dem taking Texas are staggeringly low... you don't get to biatch about candidates not visiting your state when the population of your state commits to party line votes before they even know who the candidates are.


And apparently, it doesn't even matter what party you want to vote, because the straight ticket vote defaults to republican
 
2012-11-03 01:55:09 PM  

Ed Willy: True for this year, but recall how Obama opened up more states in 2008 than there had been in 2004.

I think the partisan nature is going to burn itself out after this election. The Republican Party is going to lose too many angry old white men in the next four years and will see internal reform away from the right wing to a milder form of conservatism. Christie's humbled political edge in the face of the Hurricane Sandy is a good sign that some on the pragmatic edge of the Republican Party will begin to ditch the Tea Party


Unless, of course, Christie is declared a RINO.

I'd like to see two things happen. One, switch to an alternate (a.k.a. "instant-runoff") vote system, so that people can rank candidates instead of picking just one. Second, abolish the electoral college--while it may be intended to prevent a tyranny of the populous states, it ends up replacing it with a tyranny of the swing states.
 
2012-11-03 01:57:37 PM  
Pre-Southern Strategy. I am religious and I think Jesus is the best, but politics in this country was way better before Richard Nixon starting running around Tennessee with Billy Graham and courting the Gospel-twisting Southern Baptists to start agitating for all sorts of random stupidity in the name of some idea that isn't even actually in the Bible in the first place, not that it matters because the issues of church should NEVER conflict with the issues of the state anyfarkingway. .
 
2012-11-03 01:57:38 PM  
Because most of the country already understands that voting Obama is the best and sanest choice.

He doesn't need to waste time and money going to all of the states. We've wasted enough dumping money to convince "undecideds" (=dipshiats) to do the right thing.
 
2012-11-03 01:58:55 PM  

max_pooper: smitty04: ObamaCheap natural gas put thousands of coal miners in Kentucky out of a job but dumbasses blame Obama, visiting that state would be a waste of time.


The closure of seven coal-fired electric plants in four states could be a sign of things to come as tough new emissions standards threaten to relegate America's top energy source to the back burner.
FirstEnergy Corp., headquartered in Ohio, closed power plants on Saturday in Albright, Rivesville, and Willow Island, W.Va., along with four others in Ohio, Maryland and Pennsylvania as the company phases out aging facilities that cannot comply with new environmental regulations. Three others in Ohio also will be closed in 2015, company officials told FoxNews.com.

Federal regs force coal plant closures now, higher rates later, critics warn
 
2012-11-03 01:59:18 PM  
Maybe 10 states /SINCE/ the conventions. It's not true that they've only campaigned 10 states for the entire year.
 
2012-11-03 02:00:11 PM  
What happens each election when there are no swing states left?
 
2012-11-03 02:00:20 PM  

smitty04: Federal regs force coal plant closures now, higher rates later, critics warn


Good. Coal shouldn't be cheap. Neither should trashing the environment.
 
2012-11-03 02:02:08 PM  

smitty04: Obama put thousands of coal miners in Kentucky out of a job, visiting that state would be a waste of time.


Romney just called them all murderers.
 
2012-11-03 02:03:05 PM  

fritton: What happens each election when there are no swing states left?


Don't worry; the rising Hispanic populations in Arizona and Texas will make those swing states in the next eight to twelve years. We'll have something left to obsess over (along with Florida).
 
2012-11-03 02:04:14 PM  
That's because some states are going to go for a certain party, no matter what. The days of the "solid South" are long gone, and aside from freak landslides, states like California, Illinois, New York, and Massachusetts aren't voting for Republicans. That is sadly, the way it is now. States that have large urban and rural populations, states that have Republican governors but Democratic Congresscritters (or vice versa), and states that flip back and forth depending on the direction of the wind are where they're going to spend their time.

Personally, I'd like to see a Presidential candidate campaign in all 50 states, regardless of their chances of winning that state. Making 50 trips to Ohio and none to Montana isn't really fair to the people of Montana, whether they're voting D or R (though it's always R).
 
2012-11-03 02:04:33 PM  

quatchi: A third option is the National Popular Vote plan, the initiative proposed by Mr. Koza. Eight states and the District of Columbia have pledged their electoral votes - representing 49 percent of the required majority of 270 - to the candidate who wins the national popular vote.

Not gonna happen.


Why not? They're halfway to their goal.
 
2012-11-03 02:04:53 PM  
Obama won with a 50 state strategy, scaled back to 46 state strategy, in 2008. One election later seems kinda hasty to draw OMG EVERTHING CHANGED!!! conclusions.
 
2012-11-03 02:06:01 PM  
Main teaser on Yahoo news page:

i.imgur.com

L'dOL.
 
2012-11-03 02:07:20 PM  

whidbey: smitty04: Federal regs force coal plant closures now, higher rates later, critics warn

Good. Coal shouldn't be cheap. Neither should trashing the environment.


This times a million. I'll even say it again. Coal shouldn't be cheap. Neither should trashing the environment.

If we're lucky, he'll post some stupid pic next.
 
2012-11-03 02:08:36 PM  
smitty04 (farkied: s/sm/sh/): max_pooper: smitty04: ObamaCheap natural gas put thousands of coal miners in Kentucky out of a job but dumbasses blame Obama, visiting that state would be a waste of time.

The closure of seven coal-fired electric plants in four states could be a sign of things to come as tough new emissions standards threaten to relegate America's top energy source to the back burner.


Yeah, who cares about ash, arsenic, mercury and other good wholesome stuff being spewed into the air. Breathing and mountaintop removal don't matter when there are profits to be made.

company officials told FoxNews.com.

i139.photobucket.com
 
2012-11-03 02:08:48 PM  

born_yesterday: If we're lucky, he'll post some stupid pic next.


Yeah I do wish he'd just go back to posting stupid racist political cartoons and pictures.

Much more honest.
 
2012-11-03 02:09:07 PM  

Johnny Bananapeel: Main teaser on Yahoo news page:

[i.imgur.com image 430x291]

L'dOL.


Double-L'dOL on his expression. That's a derptacular face if I've ever seen one.
 
2012-11-03 02:09:55 PM  

Girl From The North Country: Shirking?


Yeah, I'm pretty sure numbers can't shrink. The can decrease though.
 
2012-11-03 02:10:32 PM  

somedude210: The Evil That Lies In The Hearts Of Men: This is one reason I really hope Obama at least wins FL, OH and CO. If he scrapes by with the North East and West Coast only we end up with a president elected by a very regionally polarized electorate. IMO it would be good for the country to have states from all corners of the country contribute to his electoral college tally.

You realize there's no conceivable way Romney could win without FL right? OH and CO are more or less leaning Obama anyway (at least according to recent data). Romney also needs NH if he loses OH. He'll probably lose NH too, which screws him over. There are 3 states that he needs, and only one of them does he really have a shot at winning, but that margin grows thinner each day


Yes. But I'm not talking about hoping Obama wins, it's hoping he wins with a mandate from a wider range of very diverse states from all over the US, hence why I'd like if he also picks up solid electoral college counts that include areas outside the North East and West Coast.
 
2012-11-03 02:10:37 PM  
The ads have been B R U T A L in Ohio this year - every single radio break has at least 2. A 6 commercial TV break has at least 2 and typically 3 or 4 As a registered (R) I get about 6-8 full color, glossy 8x10 cards a day telling me who to vote for - can't imagine if I was independent I'd get less - maybe twice as much.

Even though I've voted for (R) for president for 20 years I just can't stomach them anymore - Mitt tried one or two warm and fuzzy "Im a nice guy and I can get stuff done" spots but the rest of them have just been obvious, horrific lies.

Senate Bill 5 and the way they reacted to the auto bailout screwed the pooch for the GOP in Ohio - they will lose because enough cops, firefighters and teachers who had NO problem being union AND voting (R) in the past didnt care for basically being labeled as greedy leeches by a bunch of multi-millionaires.
 
2012-11-03 02:11:08 PM  

Smelly McUgly: fritton: What happens each election when there are no swing states left?

Don't worry; the rising Hispanic populations in Arizona and Texas will make those swing states in the next eight to twelve years. We'll have something left to obsess over (along with Florida).


The '08 electoral map of Texas was really interesting, and I'll be curious to look at the 2012 version.
 
2012-11-03 02:12:50 PM  

Johnny Bananapeel: Main teaser on Yahoo news page:

[i.imgur.com image 430x291]

L'dOL.


Oh, his campaign is a "movement" alright. One that goes directly into a toilet bowl.
 
2012-11-03 02:14:55 PM  

Coco LaFemme: That's because some states are going to go for a certain party, no matter what. The days of the "solid South" are long gone, and aside from freak landslides, states like California, Illinois, New York, and Massachusetts aren't voting for Republicans. That is sadly, the way it is now. States that have large urban and rural populations, states that have Republican governors but Democratic Congresscritters (or vice versa), and states that flip back and forth depending on the direction of the wind are where they're going to spend their time.

Personally, I'd like to see a Presidential candidate campaign in all 50 states, regardless of their chances of winning that state. Making 50 trips to Ohio and none to Montana isn't really fair to the people of Montana, whether they're voting D or R (though it's always R).


The solid south still exists. It's just republican now. 2008's NC flip was the last time a non-FL southern state went to a dem since Clinton won Arkansas and Louisiana in '96 and those plus GA in '92. Before that it was when Carter won the entire south in '76 or just GA in '80.

That's even a single southern state going Dem just 3 times in almost 40 years.
 
2012-11-03 02:18:46 PM  
www.truthdig.com

The shrinkage is just because the election is in November. It's very cold out!
 
2012-11-03 02:19:45 PM  

Smelly McUgly: fritton: What happens each election when there are no swing states left?

Don't worry; the rising Hispanic populations in Arizona and Texas will make those swing states in the next eight to twelve years. We'll have something left to obsess over (along with Florida).


A more interesting question is, what happens when if the Democrats become unbeatable in the presidential election? If Texas and Arizona become swing states, Florida will probably be blue, and the Republicans won't have enough of a base to be competitive.
 
2012-11-03 02:20:36 PM  
No matter what plan you go to, the candidates will not go where there aren't enough votes for them to think it worth getting. There is no plan you can conceive that will result in a Presidential candidate heading to Los Angeles or New York for anything but fundraising. They're too blue and too inflexible. And nobody's headed to rural Kansas anytime soon either. Too red, too inflexible, not enough people. Don't even get me started on Alaska and Hawaii.

You can have swing states, swing Congressional districts, swing media markets (which is what you'd get in national popular vote), take your pick. But there is no plan that will result in a 50-state candidate road trip.
 
2012-11-03 02:22:06 PM  

quatchi: A third option is the National Popular Vote plan, the initiative proposed by Mr. Koza. Eight states and the District of Columbia have pledged their electoral votes - representing 49 percent of the required majority of 270 - to the candidate who wins the national popular vote.

Not gonna happen.


Just you watch, if Rmoney wins the popular vote but loses the EV, this will perverse the airwaves in 2013 and 2014.
 
2012-11-03 02:24:22 PM  

ilambiquated: Smelly McUgly: fritton: What happens each election when there are no swing states left?

Don't worry; the rising Hispanic populations in Arizona and Texas will make those swing states in the next eight to twelve years. We'll have something left to obsess over (along with Florida).

A more interesting question is, what happens when if the Democrats become unbeatable in the presidential election? If Texas and Arizona become swing states, Florida will probably be blue, and the Republicans won't have enough of a base to be competitive.


I am excited (from a historical perspective) because I think we'll get a one-party state at some point in my life here, if only briefly, before another party rises from the ashes to become the primary opposition to the Democrats.

I am hopeful that the Democrats will essentially become the new right and that a party full of liberals marked by an economic preference for European-style socialism will become the new left, but with my luck, the libertarians become the new major right-wing party.
 
2012-11-03 02:24:55 PM  

Johnny Bananapeel: Main teaser on Yahoo news page:

[i.imgur.com image 430x291]

L'dOL.


That sure sounds like something coming from the bowels of the Romney campaign.
 
2012-11-03 02:29:45 PM  
I'm in SF. There's not been even one television advertisement for either Romney or President Obama. Nice.

All the political ads broadcasting here now deal with the state propositions.
 
2012-11-03 02:30:34 PM  
I always wonder about how many voters are discouraged from voting by the EC and would instead turn out for a straight popular vote for president (while filling out the other voteses on the ballots too).
It could be more interesting. And correctly place the balance of focus on Congress instead of the president, who really, now let's be honest, is just a farking sideshow.
 
2012-11-03 02:31:10 PM  

ilambiquated: A more interesting question is, what happens when if the Democrats become unbeatable in the presidential election? If Texas and Arizona become swing states, Florida will probably be blue, and the Republicans won't have enough of a base to be competitive.


Eventually, the imperative of victory will take over within the GOP. Something will have them run just enough to the left to get whatever demographics they need to remain viable, and they'll pull into the race again. A lot of the GOP base right now is quite simply radicalized. Nothing's going to shake them; they'll curse Obama's name the rest of their lives. The change is going to come not from them, but from the right edge of the Democrats. There will be something that they become dissatisfied with the Democrats on, and they'll defect to the Republicans. The hardcore Tea Partiers will try to kick them back out, but sooner or later the Tea Party will be overwhelmed and relegated to the point of living anachronism (see also: Jesse Helms, Strom Thurmond, Ted Stevens).
 
2012-11-03 02:34:26 PM  

starsrift: I always wonder about how many voters are discouraged from voting by the EC and would instead turn out for a straight popular vote for president (while filling out the other voteses on the ballots too).
It could be more interesting. And correctly place the balance of focus on Congress instead of the president, who really, now let's be honest, is just a farking sideshow.


Why should Congress be the focus? The Republican House of Reps has something like a 13% approval rating. I would say the 2010 first term Republican morons are a farking clown show.
 
2012-11-03 02:34:59 PM  

Smelly McUgly: fritton: What happens each election when there are no swing states left?

Don't worry; the rising Hispanic populations in Arizona and Texas will make those swing states in the next eight to twelve years. We'll have something left to obsess over (along with Florida).


That might be the lever we need to get rid of the Electoral College in the next 4 years. The deck's been stacked against one-person-one-vote and we're not going to be able to reshuffle it. Time to break open a sealed pack.
 
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