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(The New York Times)   NY Times knocks it out of the park with this electoral path interactive   (nytimes.com) divider line 246
    More: Cool  
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10792 clicks; posted to Politics » on 03 Nov 2012 at 2:33 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



246 Comments   (+0 »)
   
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2012-11-02 10:14:51 PM  
This is brilliant. Edward Tufte would be proud.
 
2012-11-02 10:22:13 PM  
That's a great breakdown. Kudos to the web team.
 
2012-11-02 10:25:51 PM  
that's fun to play with
 
2012-11-02 10:32:12 PM  
That's going to eat up three hours of my life if I don't walk away from the computer now.

Just brilliant stuff. Any reports on the weight and perceived masculinity of whoever created it? I don't wanna give too much praise.
 
2012-11-02 10:32:17 PM  
Obama pretty much only needs to win Wisconsin, Ohio and one of the other states (other than NH).
 
2012-11-02 10:43:14 PM  
Nice!
 
2012-11-02 10:58:29 PM  
This is awesome. It couldn't be clearer now that Romney has this in the bag!
 
2012-11-02 11:13:44 PM  
Who figured this out? This would make my brain explode. BRAVO.
 
2012-11-02 11:16:57 PM  
Wow. Ohio really Is crucial!
 
2012-11-02 11:18:15 PM  
This is fun.
 
2012-11-02 11:18:50 PM  

LaViergeNoire: Wow. Ohio really Is crucial!


Silver's model shows Romney with a 3% chance to win without Ohio and Obama with an 8% chance to win without Ohio.
 
2012-11-02 11:39:18 PM  
So if Obama wins Florida and any other state listed there, he wins?
 
2012-11-02 11:44:19 PM  
If Romney wins Florida AND Ohio AND North Carolina AND Virginia AND Wisconsin, it's all over Libs!
 
2012-11-03 12:08:49 AM  
Gonna have to check this out from a not-phone.
 
2012-11-03 12:27:07 AM  
That thing is great. I want to blow it up and paste it to my wall for the 6th and check shiat off as it happens. But I won't.
 
2012-11-03 12:33:55 AM  
By the way, despite this "undecided" crap, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Hampshire are going Democratic. So if Obama wins any one of Florida, Virginia, North Carolina or Ohio, it's over. Or, if he takes Colorado and Nevada, it's over.
 
2012-11-03 12:41:30 AM  
cdn.breitbart.com
That's just.....damn
 
2012-11-03 12:45:39 AM  

SilentStrider: So if Obama wins Florida and any other state listed there, he wins?


Not exactly, but of all the unknown states FL is the largest and the one where Romney still stands a chance. More interesting to me will be the times.

At 7pm eastern, FL and VA close. If both of them go to Obama, I think it's a done deal. If Romney wins both, it stays interesting.

At 7:30, Ohio and NC close. Romney needs both of them (I think he's got a chance in NC, not so much in OH) to stay alive.

8pm, PA, MI, NH, Iowa close. Romney needs a clean sweep of all of them to stay in the race.

8:30, AR closes, nobody notices.

9pm, CO, WI, NM, close. Romney can lose one of them, and keep it interesting for another hour, but if he loses two, game over.

My money says that the election is pretty much decided either at 7pm or 7:30, and if pressed, I'd pick 7pm.
 
2012-11-03 12:53:42 AM  

themindiswatching: Obama pretty much only needs to win Wisconsin, Ohio and one of the other states (other than NH). Florida


FTFY. If Obama wins Florida, Romney needs to win literally every other state.
 
2012-11-03 01:05:45 AM  

DamnYankees: themindiswatching: Obama pretty much only needs to win Wisconsin, Ohio and one of the other states (other than NH). Florida

FTFY. If Obama wins Florida, Romney needs to win literally every other state.


538 gives Romney the (slight) edge for Florida, hence why I didn't mention it.
 
2012-11-03 01:10:34 AM  

GAT_00: LaViergeNoire: Wow. Ohio really Is crucial!

Silver's model shows Romney with a 3% chance to win without Ohio and Obama with an 8% chance to win without Ohio.


The polls look good in Ohio, but Ohio is a hotbed of election fraud, by county/state officials. And they've already caught the touch screen voting machine company (heavily invested in by Romney's family) working with the Secretary of State to load untested and uncertified software onto the voting machines at the last minute.

Not to mention is appears Ohio hasn't learned their lesson, and still allows votes to be counted in a way which has no audit trail, nor any way to perform a recount. Doing something like recording every 1 in 7 votes for Obama as a vote for Romney would probably be enough to swing the election.
 
2012-11-03 01:40:34 AM  
Are we really still pretending that Romney has a chance?
 
2012-11-03 01:55:18 AM  

pissedoffmick: Are we really still pretending that Romney has a chance?


Nate Silver's "effeminate", so yes.
 
2012-11-03 01:56:19 AM  

pissedoffmick: Are we really still pretending that Romney has a chance?


he does have a chance. It's not over until all the ballots are cast. or thrown away.
 
2012-11-03 01:58:45 AM  

themindiswatching: pissedoffmick: Are we really still pretending that Romney has a chance?

Nate Silver's "effeminate", so yes.


His effeminate did what now?
 
2012-11-03 02:01:37 AM  

pissedoffmick: His effeminate did what now?


Link
 
2012-11-03 02:18:11 AM  
Wow that is actually pretty cool. Reminds me of fallopian tubes or something, though. Time to abort.
 
2012-11-03 02:46:42 AM  

themindiswatching: 538 gives Romney the (slight) edge for Florida, hence why I didn't mention it.


Florida will probably go Republican, if only because Romney has been getting over 50% in the polls while Obama has not for a while.

Quick question: in the event of a tie, does the House have to vote for one out of Romney and Obama, and does the Senate have to vote for one out of Biden and Ryan? Or can they just choose someone else for gits and shiggles?
 
2012-11-03 02:46:58 AM  
I just wonder how many dumbocraps in Florida and Ohio will be too stupid to cast a ballot that represents their intent, and how many of them will end up accidentally voting for Emelda Marcos.
 
2012-11-03 02:48:49 AM  
Wouldn't it just be easier to wait until Tuesday?
 
2012-11-03 02:50:33 AM  

SevenizGud: I just wonder how many dumbocraps in Florida and Ohio will be too stupid to cast a ballot that represents their intent, and how many of them will end up accidentally voting for Emelda Marcos.


It's Imelda, you peasant.
 
2012-11-03 02:50:43 AM  
Q

ShawnDoc: GAT_00: LaViergeNoire: Wow. Ohio really Is crucial!

Silver's model shows Romney with a 3% chance to win without Ohio and Obama with an 8% chance to win without Ohio.

The polls look good in Ohio, but Ohio is a hotbed of election fraud, by county/state officials. And they've already caught the touch screen voting machine company (heavily invested in by Romney's family) working with the Secretary of State to load untested and uncertified software onto the voting machines at the last minute.

Not to mention is appears Ohio hasn't learned their lesson, and still allows votes to be counted in a way which has no audit trail, nor any way to perform a recount. Doing something like recording every 1 in 7 votes for Obama as a vote for Romney would probably be enough to swing the election.


This is really my only concern in this election. While there are some scenarios where Obama wins w/o Ohio, I will feel a lot better if it goes blue.
 
2012-11-03 02:52:19 AM  

Lenny_da_Hog: Wouldn't it just be easier to wait until Tuesday?


We'll all be very fortunate if Tuesday decides anything.
 
2012-11-03 02:52:32 AM  

log_jammin: pissedoffmick: Are we really still pretending that Romney has a chance?

he does have a chance. It's not over until all the ballots are cast. or thrown away.


Or the voting machines are hacked. I'm guessing any swing state that's anywhere close will have a flotilla of lawyers descend like locusts to dispute the results. We won't know who "won" until sometime in December.
 
2012-11-03 02:56:28 AM  

themindiswatching: Obama pretty much only needs to win Wisconsin, Ohio and one of the other states (other than NH).


Bonus: Wisconsin's at a 94.2% chance of going to Obama on the Nov 6th forecast.
 
2012-11-03 02:58:55 AM  

Seth'n'Spectrum: themindiswatching: 538 gives Romney the (slight) edge for Florida, hence why I didn't mention it.

Florida will probably go Republican, if only because Romney has been getting over 50% in the polls while Obama has not for a while.

Quick question: in the event of a tie, does the House have to vote for one out of Romney and Obama, and does the Senate have to vote for one out of Biden and Ryan? Or can they just choose someone else for gits and shiggles?


I see it as a nail biter, a decent chance of a recount which hopefully won't matter for the electoral college. Romney has hit 50% in SOME of the polls but there was only one poll in August where he was ever above 51% and Obama has been slightly ahead or tied in 10 out of 13 polls since October 28.
 
2012-11-03 02:59:02 AM  

Seth'n'Spectrum: themindiswatching: 538 gives Romney the (slight) edge for Florida, hence why I didn't mention it.

Florida will probably go Republican, if only because Romney has been getting over 50% in the polls while Obama has not for a while.

Quick question: in the event of a tie, does the House have to vote for one out of Romney and Obama, and does the Senate have to vote for one out of Biden and Ryan? Or can they just choose someone else for gits and shiggles?


"The Twelfth Amendment requires the House to choose from the three highest receivers of electoral votes

The Senate chooses the Vice President if no candidate receives a majority of electoral votes. Its choice is limited to those with the "two highest numbers" of electoral votes. If multiple individuals are tied for second place, the Senate may consider all of them"
 
2012-11-03 02:59:58 AM  
Impressive.
 
2012-11-03 03:00:48 AM  

themindiswatching: pissedoffmick: Are we really still pretending that Romney has a chance?

Nate Silver's "effeminate", so yes.


Has anyone seen George W. Bush strolling, when he wasn't faking for the cameras? Effeminate would be the nicest way to describe his gait.
 
2012-11-03 03:02:21 AM  

fusillade762: log_jammin: pissedoffmick: Are we really still pretending that Romney has a chance?

he does have a chance. It's not over until all the ballots are cast. or thrown away.

Or the voting machines are hacked. I'm guessing any swing state that's anywhere close will have a flotilla of lawyers descend like locusts to dispute the results. We won't know who "won" until sometime in December.


This business of having to worry about a stolen presidential election worries the HELL out of me. Too much weird shiat going on: caging, voter suppression, experimental software patches, Romney's kid buying into the company that supplies voting machines for Ohio, throwing away voter registrations. Kee-rist, that's some farked-up shiat.
 
2012-11-03 03:02:40 AM  
They need to yank the accreditation from this Electoral College thing, their degrees are useless...

Can you imagine how much easier(and legitimate) this whole thing would be if they did away with this archaic bullshiat system? These guys aren't even required to follow the popular vote. Some states have them pledge to a Party, and some have them pledge to a certain candidate in advance, but they are not required in any way to vote the way the People want. I think Cuba's last election was more fair.
 
2012-11-03 03:04:00 AM  

themindiswatching: pissedoffmick: His effeminate did what now?

Link


1-media-cdn.foolz.us

/got your back mick
 
2012-11-03 03:05:15 AM  
The large probability of vote counting fraud in Ohio is horrifying. I can't believe this is not simply a problem, but an overlooked and ongoing problem. Good Christ.

It's very hard to count OH as belonging to Obama, although by all indications that is what the majority of their voters wish.
 
2012-11-03 03:05:43 AM  
I don't understand... why does Romney have a chance AT ALL? I'm somewhere to the right of the Democratic party, but the Republican party is so to the right of the spectrum (plus racist, misogynist, etc) that it should not be a contest.. FARK EVERYTHING
 
2012-11-03 03:08:07 AM  
I'm trying to figure out which one of those apocalyptic tie scenarios is most likely to occur, but they all seem pretty iffy. Still, I'll have some popcorn handy in case states start popping up in one of those orders.
 
2012-11-03 03:08:10 AM  

Mikey1969: They need to yank the accreditation from this Electoral College thing, their degrees are useless...


It's not accredited. It's a for-profit college.
 
2012-11-03 03:09:17 AM  

The All-Powerful Atheismo: themindiswatching: pissedoffmick: His effeminate did what now?

Link

[1-media-cdn.foolz.us image 424x335]

/got your back mick


Thank you. I really didn't want to have to do it myself. Too easy to be fun but very necessary.
 
2012-11-03 03:13:20 AM  
IE 8 is too old, so it doesn't work while I'm at work. The non-interactive map looks pretty good.
 
2012-11-03 03:13:20 AM  
Obiligatory:

i.imgur.com

/Not mine
 
2012-11-03 03:14:43 AM  
Interesting. If Obama wins Wisconsin/Colorado/Iowa/Nevada/New Hampshire (which he is very likely to win all five) then loses Ohio/Florida/Virginia/North Carolina (the biggest five electoral vote states) then Obama wins anyway.

Well then. I'm going to bed. Wipe hands on pants.
 
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