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(Some Guy)   UnSkewed Polls projecting an Electoral College landslide on a scale we haven't seen since the 1988 election. So take THAT, Nate Silver   (unskewedpolls.com) divider line 474
    More: Unlikely  
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9740 clicks; posted to Politics » on 01 Nov 2012 at 4:29 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-01 01:33:06 PM  
Does anyone have any knowledge of how accurate unskewed is? I've never heard of them before this election.
 
2012-11-01 01:41:10 PM  

WTFDYW: Does anyone have any knowledge of how accurate unskewed is? I've never heard of them before this election.


It's new. It's run by a Republican who doesn't like nor understand polls, saying he "unskews" them because everyone knows that 60% of Americans are Republicans and 20% are Democrats, so he takes the party-identification in the polls and re-weights them based on that assumption.
 
2012-11-01 01:45:28 PM  

vygramul: WTFDYW: Does anyone have any knowledge of how accurate unskewed is? I've never heard of them before this election.

It's new. It's run by a Republican who doesn't like nor understand polls, saying he "unskews" them because everyone knows that 60% of Americans are Republicans and 20% are Democrats, so he takes the party-identification in the polls and re-weights them based on that assumption.


Oh. Unreliable poll is unreliable.

/thanks
 
2012-11-01 01:46:14 PM  
Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

Oregon going for Romney.
 
2012-11-01 01:50:08 PM  

vygramul: WTFDYW: Does anyone have any knowledge of how accurate unskewed is? I've never heard of them before this election.

It's new. It's run by a Republican who doesn't like nor understand polls, saying he "unskews" them because everyone knows that 60% of Americans are Republicans and 20% are Democrats, so he takes the party-identification in the polls and re-weights them based on that assumption.


i218.photobucket.com
 
2012-11-01 02:09:27 PM  
One of the nice benefits of this election being over is we won't have to worry about anyone taking Unskewed polls seriously ever again.
 
2012-11-01 02:15:01 PM  

Elandriel: One of the nice benefits of this election being over is we won't have to worry about anyone taking Unskewed polls seriously ever again.


Don't be so sure. There will absolutely be a extremely loud group of idiots who will point to unskewed as absolute proof that Obama stole the election. The ensuing (and current) denouncements of the site will then be help up as simply more proof of a vast liberal conspiracy. These people will not be reasoned with.
 
2012-11-01 02:18:18 PM  

Elandriel: One of the nice benefits of this election being over is we won't have to worry about anyone taking Unskewed polls seriously ever again.


i1244.photobucket.com

Refuses to see what you did there.
 
2012-11-01 02:46:33 PM  
You know he's just sitting there in his mother's basement whispering, "They'll see... They are all going to SEE," as he coughs up another cloud of orange Cheetos' dust.
 
2012-11-01 02:49:28 PM  
The guy who runs this idiotic site also said Nate Silver is too skinny and gay to be taken seriously. Well, the exact words were "thin" and "effeminate." But that's what he meant.
 
2012-11-01 02:49:51 PM  

GleeUnit: Elandriel: One of the nice benefits of this election being over is we won't have to worry about anyone taking Unskewed polls seriously ever again.

Don't be so sure. There will absolutely be a extremely loud group of idiots who will point to unskewed as absolute proof that Obama stole the election. The ensuing (and current) denouncements of the site will then be help up as simply more proof of a vast liberal conspiracy. These people will not be reasoned with.


Yeah, that is my worry. The same people that think Obama is a Communist (please prove one Communist thing he has done) will point to this to show he is Satan incarnate that is ushering in the final Apocalypse.
 
2012-11-01 03:07:06 PM  

Elandriel: One of the nice benefits of this election being over is we won't have to worry about anyone taking Unskewed polls seriously ever again.


That implies we took them seriously to begin with.
 
2012-11-01 03:11:51 PM  
By the way, if you haven't figured out Unskewed Polls is trolling everyone, look at their Ohio numbers. The only poll they show with an Obama lead is a Rasmussen one.
 
2012-11-01 03:12:20 PM  
WTF did I just read...!?
 
2012-11-01 03:13:20 PM  

vygramul: WTFDYW: Does anyone have any knowledge of how accurate unskewed is? I've never heard of them before this election.

It's new. It's run by a Republican who doesn't like nor understand polls, saying he "unskews" them because everyone knows that 60% of Americans are Republicans and 20% are Democrats, so he takes the party-identification in the polls and re-weights them based on that assumption.


But he has lots of numbers on his page, just like Nate Silver and Drew Linzer and Sam Wang!

Therefore his math is just as good as theirs, or even better!
 
2012-11-01 03:14:57 PM  
no, really - WTF was that thing!? I feel like i'm stoned but...i'm sober. MY BRAIN HURTS!
 
2012-11-01 03:17:04 PM  
There's a lot of pain and shame in that blog.
 
2012-11-01 03:19:30 PM  

sigdiamond2000: There's a lot of pain and shame in that blog.


i'm pretty sure the owner is doing something obscene to the statisticals.
 
2012-11-01 03:23:41 PM  

sigdiamond2000: There's a lot of pain and shame in that blog.


It's like a Republican politician creeping out a rest stop bathroom at 3:00 AM.
 
2012-11-01 03:25:29 PM  
His methodology is most rigorous. It works thusly:

1) +5% toward R for every poll
2) ????
3) Unskewed!
 
2012-11-01 03:29:11 PM  
Are they "Unskewed" the same way that FOX News is "Fair and Balanced"?
 
2012-11-01 03:30:47 PM  
That's some hard-core wishful thinking going on at that site.

Silver has more statistically informative discussion in his tweets than that site does on that entire page.

I especially like that "both campaigns are concentrating heavily on Ohio" means they are equivalently mobilized and equivalently effective, for example.
 
2012-11-01 03:31:05 PM  

Marcus Aurelius: Are they "Unskewed" the same way that FOX News is "Fair and Balanced"?


We distort, you deride?
 
2012-11-01 03:33:58 PM  

GleeUnit: Elandriel: One of the nice benefits of this election being over is we won't have to worry about anyone taking Unskewed polls seriously ever again.

Don't be so sure. There will absolutely be a extremely loud group of idiots who will point to unskewed as absolute proof that Obama stole the election. The ensuing (and current) denouncements of the site will then be help up as simply more proof of a vast liberal conspiracy. These people will not be reasoned with.


I can't wait for that level of derp.. Seriously it's going to be a lot of fun nailing all my Righttard family.
 
2012-11-01 03:36:28 PM  
i798.photobucket.com

I'm getting a lot of use out of Jackson Herring's gif.
 
2012-11-01 03:39:58 PM  
What is your background for writing about politics and analyzing polling data?

I have been writing about politics as a journalist and columnist for more than 25 years as well has having graduated with a B.A. in political science from the University of Maine at Farmington in 1991, after which I completed three years of graduate studies in political science, journalism, and English at the Universit[sic] of Tennessee.


Glad to see that English degree is getting some good use. Nobody knows statisticals like English majors.
 
2012-11-01 03:50:44 PM  
He will get a gig as a WND columnist.
 
2012-11-01 04:05:16 PM  
This site is just an alias for "Dick Morris" anyway, right? Or, judging from the website layout, James Robinson of Free Republic fame?
 
2012-11-01 04:06:15 PM  
Just ran his numbers through a monte carlo simulator.

I assumed his projected voting percentages have a 4% margin of error (about what other poll aggregation sites have).

Using this to calculate the odds of Obama/Romney taking a state, the electoral votes of the state, and 20,000 simulations, Obama's chance of winning is 0%. Of 20,000 simulated runs, Obama won ZERO. For comparison, using Nate Silver's numbers, Romney wins about 25% of the time. He even has an electoral tie about 0.5% of the time.

Seems totally legit.
 
2012-11-01 04:07:16 PM  
Minnesota for Romney?


AHHHHHHHHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA
 
2012-11-01 04:08:58 PM  

palladiate: What is your background for writing about politics and analyzing polling data?

I have been writing about politics as a journalist and columnist for more than 25 years as well has having graduated with a B.A. in political science from the University of Maine at Farmington in 1991, after which I completed three years of graduate studies in political science, journalism, and English at the Universit[sic] of Tennessee.

Glad to see that English degree is getting some good use. Nobody knows statisticals like English majors.


LOL, English degree.
 
2012-11-01 04:11:02 PM  

WTFDYW: Does anyone have any knowledge of how accurate unskewed is? I've never heard of them before this election.


They are not a polling agency. They (he, really) is the conservative "answer" to Nate Silver. He takes polls, aggregates them with some formula (or maybe just throws a dart, who knows) and creates predictions.

I will just post some of the predictions from the link, and you can make your own determination on how accurate it is.

Colorado- Romney by 9
Florida- Romney by 8
Iowa- Romney by 8
Michigan- Romney(!) by 3
Nevada- Romney by 5
Minnesota- Romney(!) by 4
New Hampshire- Romney by 7
New Mexico- Romney(!) by 7
Ohio- Romney by 8
Oregon- Romney(!) by 6
Pennsylvania- Romney(!) by 6

If you give this guy any credibility whatsoever, you might be a "conservative".
 
2012-11-01 04:17:46 PM  

GAT_00: By the way, if you haven't figured out Unskewed Polls is trolling everyone, look at their Ohio numbers. The only poll they show with an Obama lead is a Rasmussen one.


I highly suspect that to be the case as well.
 
2012-11-01 04:18:02 PM  

tallguywithglasseson: WTFDYW: Does anyone have any knowledge of how accurate unskewed is? I've never heard of them before this election.

They are not a polling agency. They (he, really) is the conservative "answer" to Nate Silver. He takes polls, aggregates them with some formula (or maybe just throws a dart, who knows) and creates predictions.

I will just post some of the predictions from the link, and you can make your own determination on how accurate it is.

Colorado- Romney by 9
Florida- Romney by 8
Iowa- Romney by 8
Michigan- Romney(!) by 3
Nevada- Romney by 5
Minnesota- Romney(!) by 4
New Hampshire- Romney by 7
New Mexico- Romney(!) by 7
Ohio- Romney by 8
Oregon- Romney(!) by 6
Pennsylvania- Romney(!) by 6

If you give this guy any credibility whatsoever, you might be a "conservative".


The only poll I take seriously is the one on election day. I was just wondering where this guy hatched from.
 
2012-11-01 04:20:17 PM  

Brontes: (please prove one Communist thing he has done)


study it out, you'll see.
 
2012-11-01 04:20:42 PM  

WTFDYW: The only poll I take seriously is the one on election day. I was just wondering where this guy hatched from.


I seriously believe it is either Dick Morris or Jim Robinson desperately trying to counter Silver's math in a way that looks "scientific" to folks who only pay attention to such things in passing.
 
2012-11-01 04:21:10 PM  
All you need is the first state:

Alabama 35.6 65.22

35.6+65.22 = 100.82.

In fact 9 states have percentages for both candidates over 100%.

OH FFS.

I do like picking on retards though, so there's that.
 
2012-11-01 04:23:12 PM  
Oh, look! Romney has OREGON locked up!!

i159.photobucket.com
 
2012-11-01 04:23:41 PM  
It ain't over til the fat man skews.
 
2012-11-01 04:24:06 PM  

bdub77: All you need is the first state:

Alabama 35.6 65.22

35.6+65.22 = 100.82.

In fact 9 states have percentages for both candidates over 100%.

OH FFS.

I do like picking on retards though, so there's that.


I think that means he's better than perfect. I'm sure he hears that from his mom at the top of the stairs every day.
 
2012-11-01 04:25:10 PM  
Fun facts about Unskewed Polls Man:

static5.businessinsider.com

- Dean Chambers is the master of unskewing things.
- Dean Chambers does not bother to unskew shish kebab, however, because "that them stuff's fer A-Rabs".
- Dean Chambers likes standing in front of trees and taking pictures of himself with a shirt on, but no pants.
- Pornographic videos of Dean Chambers can be found at tubegalore, under the categories "banana", "shemales", and "gangbang".
- Dean Chambers' Fark handle is a common noun.
- The ladies say Dean Chambers' penis is 1" long but Dean Chambers says his penis is 14" long. The length is really closer to 2".
- Dean Chambers will eat anything.
- Dean Chamber's measurements are 34B-65-50.
- A wooden skewer was once stuck in Dean Chambers' stomach.
- Dean Chambers has an anus Fleshlight stuck between two mattresses, with a photograph of Mitt Romney at the fudge factory on top.
- Dean Chambers assumed the name "Dean" to appear smart. His real name is Cletus.
- Dean Chambers never learned how to count.
- Dean Chambers had many enemies.
- There are many bodies buried behind Dean Chambers' house.
- If kids would stop asking for Dean Chambers' candy on Halloween, Dean Chambers wouldn't have to kill so many children.
 
2012-11-01 04:26:03 PM  

bdub77: In fact 9 states have percentages for both candidates over 100%.

OH FFS.

I do like picking on retards though, so there's that.


The worst in NC, with 101.1% You can't blame that on rounding error.
 
2012-11-01 04:28:14 PM  

Sock Ruh Tease: Fun facts about Unskewed Polls Man:


He looks like that dude that used to run the megauploads site.
 
2012-11-01 04:31:36 PM  
i think he ate the dude that used to run the megauploads site
 
2012-11-01 04:32:31 PM  
This is bad news for Bronco Bamma.
 
2012-11-01 04:33:58 PM  

tallguywithglasseson: WTFDYW: Does anyone have any knowledge of how accurate unskewed is? I've never heard of them before this election.

They are not a polling agency. They (he, really) is the conservative "answer" to Nate Silver. He takes polls, aggregates them with some formula (or maybe just throws a dart, who knows) and creates predictions.

I will just post some of the predictions from the link, and you can make your own determination on how accurate it is.

Colorado- Romney by 9
Florida- Romney by 8
Iowa- Romney by 8
Michigan- Romney(!) by 3
Nevada- Romney by 5
Minnesota- Romney(!) by 4
New Hampshire- Romney by 7
New Mexico- Romney(!) by 7
Ohio- Romney by 8
Oregon- Romney(!) by 6
Pennsylvania- Romney(!) by 6

If you give this guy any credibility whatsoever, you might be a "conservative".


Oregon has a pot measure on the ballot this year too, but also some anti-tax derp.

I think Johnson might pull 1% here.
 
2012-11-01 04:34:27 PM  
Everybody knows Glenn Beck's electoral map is the most likely outcome

i1127.photobucket.com
 
2012-11-01 04:34:42 PM  
Alabama, LITERALLY THE FIRST STATE on the list has a projected 35.60 for Obama, and 65.22 for Romney.

Now I'm not one of those math guys, but I'm 75% sure that adds up to 100.82%.

/I'm also 100.82% sure this dude is a farking moron
 
2012-11-01 04:34:49 PM  

badLogic: This is bad news for Bronco Bamma.


hee hee
 
2012-11-01 04:35:53 PM  

meat0918: Pennsylvania- Romney(!) by 6


He's got to be high.
 
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