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(Some Guy)   According to ADP, the private sector added 158,000 new jobs in October. This is bad for... aww, who are we kidding here? This is bad for Romney   (adp.com) divider line 92
    More: Spiffy, ADP National Employment Report, adjusted basis, total bases, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's Analytics, private sector  
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1016 clicks; posted to Politics » on 01 Nov 2012 at 12:19 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-11-01 10:29:08 AM  
s3.amazonaws.com

and they say obama has no record to run on.
 
2012-11-01 10:31:36 AM  

FlashHarry: [s3.amazonaws.com image 550x281]

and they say obama has no record to run on.



Most low information voters will never see anything like that - that's why they're called "low-information voters."

Same with the jobs-growth or GDP numbers going back a few years.
 
2012-11-01 10:36:34 AM  
How many were permanent jobs? How many are temporary for the season?
 
2012-11-01 10:37:20 AM  

WTFDYW: How many were permanent jobs? How many are temporary for the season?


What season? Halloween season?
 
2012-11-01 10:37:24 AM  

WTFDYW: How many were permanent jobs? How many are temporary for the season?


rooting for america to fail must be tiring. you seem tired.
 
2012-11-01 10:37:26 AM  

kmmontandon: Most low information voters will never see anything like that - that's why they're called "low-information voters."


Or, more accurately, they'll hear Fox News saying that unemployment claims are up 25% from 2008 when 0bama was elected.
 
2012-11-01 10:37:45 AM  

WTFDYW: How many were permanent jobs? How many are temporary for the season?


Since it's only the first of November, I'm kind of doubting this was a spike of holiday season retail jobs.
 
2012-11-01 10:38:33 AM  

WTFDYW: How many were permanent jobs? How many are temporary for the season?


FTA: The report, which is derived from ADP's actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.
 
2012-11-01 10:40:26 AM  
www.adpemploymentreport.com

for those who don't like to read.
 
2012-11-01 10:40:51 AM  

sigdiamond2000: WTFDYW: How many were permanent jobs? How many are temporary for the season?

What season? Halloween season?


You must not pay any attention to anything but the politics thread. These companies like Amazon and such are already hiring thousands of tempoary workers for the Holiday season. Check it out.
 
2012-11-01 10:43:02 AM  

WTFDYW: sigdiamond2000: WTFDYW: How many were permanent jobs? How many are temporary for the season?

What season? Halloween season?

You must not pay any attention to anything but the politics thread. These companies like Amazon and such are already hiring thousands of tempoary workers for the Holiday season. Check it out.


You mean study it out?

Provide some references or numbers, and one company, even if it's Amazon, doesn't account for your implied spike that is typical of the holiday season that only begins now.
 
2012-11-01 10:44:22 AM  
 
2012-11-01 10:45:24 AM  

WTFDYW: These companies like Amazon and such are already hiring thousands of tempoary workers for the Holiday season. Check it out.


good thing this is seasonally adjusted then.
 
2012-11-01 10:52:21 AM  

sigdiamond2000: WTFDYW: How many were permanent jobs? How many are temporary for the season?

What season? Halloween season?


I lol'd
 
2012-11-01 11:36:01 AM  
High information voters:

"See? The recovery is continuing under Obama. Look at the stimulus data. It's irrefutable."

Low information voters:

"Romney offered me a pony and promised not to throw me down the stairs again if I shut up and vote Republican. Sounds good to me, I like ponies, and this broken leg will heal in a few months."
 
2012-11-01 11:57:57 AM  

sigdiamond2000: WTFDYW: How many were permanent jobs? How many are temporary for the season?

What season? Halloween season?


Migrant pumpkin picking jobs
 
2012-11-01 12:04:10 PM  

Jackson Herring: sigdiamond2000: WTFDYW: How many were permanent jobs? How many are temporary for the season?

What season? Halloween season?

Migrant pumpkin picking jobs


You kid, but:

Most jobs created under 0Farta were for furners what ain't even look like us and prolably smell
 
2012-11-01 12:21:18 PM  
Only 158,000? TOO SLOW!

/obligatory Repub retort.
 
2012-11-01 12:22:07 PM  
These are not the statisticals you are looking for.
 
2012-11-01 12:25:51 PM  

WTFDYW: How many were permanent jobs? How many are temporary for the season?


Are you extremely ignorant or extremely partisan?
 
2012-11-01 12:26:42 PM  

hillbillypharmacist: kmmontandon: Most low information voters will never see anything like that - that's why they're called "low-information voters."

Or, more accurately, they'll hear Fox News saying that unemployment claims are up 25% from 2008 when 0bama was elected.


Worse, they'll see this.

m.static.newsvine.com

And never stop to wonder how one can be a government worker and be counted among the unemployed, just "Damn those government worker unemployed".
 
2012-11-01 12:28:53 PM  

WTFDYW: How many were permanent jobs? How many are temporary for the season?


The shopping season is a LIEberal tool conjured up to steal elections.
 
2012-11-01 12:29:49 PM  
GOP Talking Points, unobfuscated:

Dammit, that ni@@er ain't fixin' our mess fast enough!
 
2012-11-01 12:30:24 PM  
Thus continuing the pattern where what's good for America is bad for the GOP.
 
2012-11-01 12:30:26 PM  
Whenever I hear about job numbers, I always wonder what kind of jobs are being added. A job is not a job is not a job.
 
2012-11-01 12:30:52 PM  

meat0918: hillbillypharmacist: kmmontandon: Most low information voters will never see anything like that - that's why they're called "low-information voters."

Or, more accurately, they'll hear Fox News saying that unemployment claims are up 25% from 2008 when 0bama was elected.

Worse, they'll see this.

[m.static.newsvine.com image 600x346]

And never stop to wonder how one can be a government worker and be counted among the unemployed, just "Damn those government worker unemployed".


Are they actually using the same math for their then and now "real unemployment rate" numbers? Aren't those 7.8% and 14.7% numbers arrived at completely differently?
 
2012-11-01 12:33:49 PM  
Aren't these are the same guys who gave us similar numbers for last month and then earlier this week adjusted them down by about half?
 
2012-11-01 12:34:11 PM  

NeoCortex42: meat0918: hillbillypharmacist: kmmontandon: Most low information voters will never see anything like that - that's why they're called "low-information voters."

Or, more accurately, they'll hear Fox News saying that unemployment claims are up 25% from 2008 when 0bama was elected.

Worse, they'll see this.

[m.static.newsvine.com image 600x346]

And never stop to wonder how one can be a government worker and be counted among the unemployed, just "Damn those government worker unemployed".

Are they actually using the same math for their then and now "real unemployment rate" numbers? Aren't those 7.8% and 14.7% numbers arrived at completely differently?


Yes.
 
2012-11-01 12:34:45 PM  

WTFDYW: How many were permanent jobs? How many are temporary for the season?


A job is a job is a job. There's plenty of seasonal construction and landscaping jobs that are slowing down right now too.
 
2012-11-01 12:35:15 PM  

Bloody William: WTFDYW: How many were permanent jobs? How many are temporary for the season?

Since it's only the first of November, I'm kind of doubting this was a spike of holiday season retail jobs.


Point of information: typically retailers want to at least start hiring the seasonal temps by end of October, because you want them to be trained by the time Black Friday rolls around, and to be able to filter out a few of the bad apples before then. Also, Halloween can be a pretty big deal depending on what you're selling.

In any case, the data is seasonally adjusted so it shouldn't be influenced by that surge of hiring. If it weren't you'd probably see a lot more jobs added. That said, I would agree that it would be a lot more helpful for ADP or the BLS to publish their unadjusted numbers in addition to their adjusted numbers. For a while there in the middle of the year (April-July or so) the adjusted jobs added number from the BLS was trailing the year-over-year jobs added total by a lot.
 
2012-11-01 12:35:53 PM  

coco ebert: Whenever I hear about job numbers, I always wonder what kind of jobs are being added. A job is not a job is not a job.


The BLS has this information, how many of the jobs are part time and the average salary. Do you need a link?
 
2012-11-01 12:36:25 PM  
Anything under 500,000 jobs per month is unacceptable.

[No way that'll ever come back to bite a (heaven forbid) President Romney.]
 
2012-11-01 12:36:42 PM  

PsyLord: Only 158,000? TOO SLOW!

/obligatory Repub retort.


No no no, you're supposed to start off with the "BUT LABOR PARTICIPATION IS DOWN LIBS LIBS LIBS" argument.

Oh wait, I take it back. That's what you're supposed to start with tomorrow when those lying thieves at the BLS who have been scheming against the GOP since the 19th century will prove that they are in on the conspiracy.

Carry on.
 
2012-11-01 12:42:29 PM  

tenpoundsofcheese: Aren't these are the same guys who gave us similar numbers for last month and then earlier this week adjusted them down by about half?


Keep spinning spinning spinning.

Makes you look silly and desperate.

Plus, you sound tired.
 
2012-11-01 12:43:51 PM  

elchip: [No way that'll ever come back to bite a (heaven forbid) President Romney.]


To that end:

Rom says unemp shld be 4%. I was Sec of Lab last time it was 4%. We got there by raising taxes on rich and investing in ed and infrstructre.

- Robert Reich (@RBReich) May 5, 2012
 
2012-11-01 12:45:05 PM  

WTFDYW: How many were permanent jobs? How many are temporary for the season?


In October, there were like 10,000 people temporarily employed at Party City and Spirit shops in New York alone!

/not intended to be a factual statement
 
2012-11-01 12:47:38 PM  
Wanted to be in before the "too little too slow!!!11" and "MISTER Hussein crashed the job market!!!!1!" posts, but they jumped the gun. Nothing left to do but nuke the thread from orbit.

/it's the only way to be sure
 
2012-11-01 12:47:46 PM  

Jackson Herring: sigdiamond2000: WTFDYW: How many were permanent jobs? How many are temporary for the season?

What season? Halloween season?

Migrant pumpkin picking jobs


I read that as "Midget pumpkin picking jobs".

Now I feel bad about myself.
 
2012-11-01 12:48:24 PM  

tenpoundsofcheese: Aren't these are the same guys who gave us similar numbers for last month and then earlier this week adjusted them down by about half?


Has anyone really been far even as decided to use even go want to do look more like?
 
2012-11-01 12:52:30 PM  
You know those unemployment numbers are flawed. They don't take in account houses that have, uh, more than two television sets, and other things of that nature.
 
2012-11-01 12:53:08 PM  

coco ebert: Whenever I hear about job numbers, I always wonder what kind of jobs are being added. A job is not a job is not a job.


Look, I'd like a job where I get paid millions of dollars to fark hot girls on camera. But the government is so involved to pick the jobs for me.
 
2012-11-01 12:53:29 PM  

tenpoundsofcheese: Aren't these are the same guys who gave us similar numbers for last month and then earlier this week adjusted them down by about half?


If I recall they did not adjust their numbers. ADP only takes into account private sector jobs. The department of labor takes into account both public and private sector jobs.

As long as governments continue to slash their budgets they will have to cut public sector workers. Hence the delta between the two surveys.
 
2012-11-01 12:53:53 PM  

dericwater: coco ebert: Whenever I hear about job numbers, I always wonder what kind of jobs are being added. A job is not a job is not a job.

Look, I'd like a job where I get paid millions of dollars to fark hot girls on camera. But the government isN'T so involved to pick the jobs for me.


FTFM
 
2012-11-01 01:02:39 PM  

WTFDYW: How many were permanent jobs? How many are temporary for the season?


That is a very good question. Other good questions might include How much do these jobs pay? Can a family be supported on these jobs? Do these jobs come with health insurance? I doubt that these are good jobs. The decline in wages and decent employment in this country is driven largely by globalization and changes in technology. Most first world countries are having the same problem or they're starting to have these problems. This isn't anything that can be fixed through tax policy, regulatory changes or any of the other issues that the candidates want to talk about.

Obama and the Democrats I think are promoting the idea that if we invest in new technologies we can become the economic powerhouse we once were. Innovation will create thousands of new jobs replacing ones that were lost. Frankly, I think we have hit a ceiling on this. I don't think we are going to see the kind of enormous technological change like the we had with the automobile, computer and internet that creates hundreds of thousands of jobs. I think we've hit a ceiling on that.

Romney thinks by cutting taxes and eliminating regulations we will have all this investment in America again. Canada cut their corporate tax rate to 15% which is less than the 25% Romney is calling for and Canada hasn't seen the kind of astonishing growth that Romney is predicting. Deregulation won't right this ship either unless Romney eliminates environmental and labor laws to the point that Americans can be exploited just as easily as workers in third world countries. I don't think Americans would stand for that though. Not yet anyway.
 
2012-11-01 01:05:44 PM  

meat0918: Worse, they'll see this.

[m.static.newsvine.com image 600x346]


I must have forgotten to take my retard pills this morning, but ... the unemployment rate among government workers is 5.0%?

Isn't the unemployment rate among workers 0.0%? I mean, if you're unemployed, then by definition you don't have a government job.

/Or maybe they just accidentally gave away their methodology of adding an extra 5% to every number
//Or maybe they're using U8 or U9 or U20, which includes people who are employed but underemployed and looking to turn their career around, by enrolling in Lincoln Technical Institute
 
2012-11-01 01:08:53 PM  
Are we taking these numbers for real? ADP has just lost all credibility in my book. They just revised their job numbers over the past year, and here are the results (original first, revised second, difference last):

Jan - 182 - 219 - (37)
Feb - 228 - 227 - 1
Mar - 204 - 90 - 114
Apr - 112 - 130 - (18)
May - 131 - 81 - 50
Jun - 173 - 115 - 58
Jul - 156 - 146 - 10
Aug - 189 - 82 - 107
Sep - 162 - 114 - 48

Adding that up, so far this year ADP has overestimated job growth by 333,000 jobs. For those acting as though this is great news, please take it with a grain of salt.
 
2012-11-01 01:08:53 PM  
This is hardly bad for Romney. Not that I'm any fan of Romney (I personally despise him) but any Romney voter out there does not see a strong - or a proper - recovery under Obama to keep him in for another term. That, and all the partisan hypocrisy that usually makes up the GOP, I don't see this as hurting Romney's chances.

Markets do recover, but Obama and his drones will have to do their due diligence to prove that this market recovery is because of Obama's policies; which is more than just posting one graph or statistic and saying "See? I told you!"
 
2012-11-01 01:09:23 PM  

rufus-t-firefly:

Has anyone really been far even as decided to use even go want to do look more like?


Ummm... what? is that sentence even grammatically possible?
 
2012-11-01 01:09:54 PM  

Dusk-You-n-Me: Link


Great link, thank you.
 
2012-11-01 01:11:24 PM  

FlashHarry: [s3.amazonaws.com image 550x281]

and they say obama has no record to run on.


Stealing this graph... so that I can add it to the many others that I have...
 
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