Do you have adblock enabled?
If you can read this, either the style sheet didn't load or you have an older browser that doesn't support style sheets. Try clearing your browser cache and refreshing the page.

(Yahoo)   Joe Scarborough: Anybody that thinks that this race is anything but a tossup right now is such an ideologue, they're jokes. Nate Silver: Wanna bet?   (news.yahoo.com) divider line 136
    More: Interesting, Joe Scarborough, FiveThirtyEight, statistical model, Henry Blodget, making excuses, American Red Cross, David Axelrod, jokes  
•       •       •

3681 clicks; posted to Politics » on 01 Nov 2012 at 12:14 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



136 Comments   (+0 »)
   
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest

Archived thread

First | « | 1 | 2 | 3 | » | Last | Show all
 
2012-11-01 12:15:20 PM  
Step up, Joe. You have considerably more wealth than Silver. How confident are you?
 
ecl
2012-11-01 12:15:23 PM  
Joe Scarborough! Drink!
 
2012-11-01 12:15:48 PM  
In before grammar Nazi comes in to destroy headline.
 
2012-11-01 12:16:36 PM  
The best Morning Joe shows are the days when Joe isn't there.
 
2012-11-01 12:17:18 PM  
images.politico.com

Only $1,000? Lightweight.
 
2012-11-01 12:19:32 PM  
A second Nate Silver thread or will this just end up being a hate on Joe thread? I'm ok, either way.
 
2012-11-01 12:19:34 PM  
I think they should just agree to match each other's $1000 contribution as a nice gesture. Friendly bet and all.

Here's the thing, though: Silver's numbers DO NOT SAY ROMNEY CANNOT WIN. They say he has about a 1-in-5 shot. So Romney winning does not in itself disprove the results of his modeling. Hell, the surely don't factor in the swing state pro-GOP voting machine tampering that's gone on the last 3 elections.
 
2012-11-01 12:20:37 PM  
If I were a betting type person I'd bet on Obama. It's like having a queen and a nine at a blackjack table while the dealer is showing a five. You like your odds but it's no sure thing.
 
2012-11-01 12:20:42 PM  
That's awesome. Silver was on Carson Daly last night (yeah, I know) and he said "If you give me even odds, I'll bet on Obama. If you give me 6:1 odds I might bet on Romney"
 
2012-11-01 12:21:04 PM  

Soup4Bonnie: A second Nate Silver thread or will this just end up being a hate on Joe thread? I'm ok, either way.


I don't think Joe is that bad. Sometimes he mouths the party line but I don't think he truly believes it.
 
2012-11-01 12:21:26 PM  
lolololol

"Will he put his money where his mouth - and moustache - is?!"

Thank god those two are usually in the same place.
 
2012-11-01 12:23:14 PM  
Look out, Nate, if Joe should offer you a special tour of his office. The last intern who took that tour...
 
2012-11-01 12:23:52 PM  
Well, I was going to go out and early vote for Obama tomorrow. But, since it's apparently in the bag, I guess I'll stay home.

(sarcasm off)

Vote as if it's a tie, you fools!
 
2012-11-01 12:24:01 PM  

Cletus C.: If I were a betting type person I'd bet on Obama. It's like having a queen and a nine at a blackjack table while the dealer is showing a five. You like your odds but it's no sure thing.


Yeah, except when I play blackjack the dealer would just pull 5-3-4-4..."21...oooohhh that sucks, sorry guys...I swear that never happens!"...then it happens two hands later. Blackjack is only reasonably good odds if you double down and split every time you are "supposed to"...people forget that. Otherwise the house will rape you every single f*cking time.

/bitter
 
2012-11-01 12:24:59 PM  

SacriliciousBeerSwiller: Soup4Bonnie: A second Nate Silver thread or will this just end up being a hate on Joe thread? I'm ok, either way.

I don't think Joe is that bad. Sometimes he mouths the party line but I don't think he truly believes it.


You don't think a hack that spouses the party line for a few bucks is "that bad"? Say what you want about Nate - but I don't think he takes his marching orders from anyone but himself.
 
2012-11-01 12:25:32 PM  
Nate Silver used to play cards for money.

He's used to winning bets from suckers.

Go for it, Joe. You know unless...

*Bwak bwak bwak*

/Yuppo, just having some fun now.
 
2012-11-01 12:26:40 PM  
I like Silver, detest Scarborough, and this was still a dumb thing for Nate to do. Donation prop bets during an emergency are Trumpian and classless.
 
2012-11-01 12:26:55 PM  

SacriliciousBeerSwiller: Cletus C.: If I were a betting type person I'd bet on Obama. It's like having a queen and a nine at a blackjack table while the dealer is showing a five. You like your odds but it's no sure thing.

Yeah, except when I play blackjack the dealer would just pull 5-3-4-4..."21...oooohhh that sucks, sorry guys...I swear that never happens!"...then it happens two hands later. Blackjack is only reasonably good odds if you double down and split every time you are "supposed to"...people forget that. Otherwise the house will rape you every single f*cking time.

/bitter


And oh yeah, if the house rules allow the dealer to hit on soft 17s, STAY THE HELL AWAY.
 
2012-11-01 12:27:23 PM  

quatchi: Nate Silver used to play cards for money.

He's used to winning bets from suckers.

Go for it, Joe. You know unless...

*Bwak bwak bwak*

/Yuppo, just having some fun now.


eh, if joe really thinks it's a toss-up he might not be interested at getting in with even odds. if silver really thinks it's an 80% chance for obama, he should be willing to give joe a little better than even money.
 
2012-11-01 12:27:38 PM  
Or to quote someone, don't engage with stupid people. They drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.
 
2012-11-01 12:28:21 PM  

SacriliciousBeerSwiller: Cletus C.: If I were a betting type person I'd bet on Obama. It's like having a queen and a nine at a blackjack table while the dealer is showing a five. You like your odds but it's no sure thing.

Yeah, except when I play blackjack the dealer would just pull 5-3-4-4..."21...oooohhh that sucks, sorry guys...I swear that never happens!"...then it happens two hands later. Blackjack is only reasonably good odds if you double down and split every time you are "supposed to"...people forget that. Otherwise the house will rape you every single f*cking time.

/bitter


Winner winner, chicken dinner!

/honestly just need to know how blackjack works, you're only playing against the dealer and if the table knows how to work together to do that, everyone wins
 
2012-11-01 12:28:42 PM  

gingerjet: SacriliciousBeerSwiller: Soup4Bonnie: A second Nate Silver thread or will this just end up being a hate on Joe thread? I'm ok, either way.

I don't think Joe is that bad. Sometimes he mouths the party line but I don't think he truly believes it.

You don't think a hack that spouses the party line for a few bucks is "that bad"? Say what you want about Nate - but I don't think he takes his marching orders from anyone but himself.


I was speaking about Nate. Silver is fine by me. Just saying that as far as hacky pundits go, Joe isn't even in the top 20 worst.
 
2012-11-01 12:28:47 PM  

thomps: quatchi: Nate Silver used to play cards for money.

He's used to winning bets from suckers.

Go for it, Joe. You know unless...

*Bwak bwak bwak*

/Yuppo, just having some fun now.

eh, if joe really thinks it's a toss-up he might not be interested at getting in with even odds. if silver really thinks it's an 80% chance for obama, he should be willing to give joe a little better than even money.


Joe's the one who claims it's 50/50, so no odds should be given. Still not something Nate should have started though.
 
2012-11-01 12:29:34 PM  

SacriliciousBeerSwiller: gingerjet: SacriliciousBeerSwiller: Soup4Bonnie: A second Nate Silver thread or will this just end up being a hate on Joe thread? I'm ok, either way.

I don't think Joe is that bad. Sometimes he mouths the party line but I don't think he truly believes it.

You don't think a hack that spouses the party line for a few bucks is "that bad"? Say what you want about Nate - but I don't think he takes his marching orders from anyone but himself.

I wasn'tspeaking about Nate. Silver is fine by me. Just saying that as far as hacky pundits go, Joe isn't even in the top 20 worst.


FTFM. dammit. Fark needs to "modify post" function, at least within the first 15 seconds.
 
2012-11-01 12:29:47 PM  
If Obama wins, who on Fark is brave enough to go Freep diving and bring back headsplosion quotes?
 
2012-11-01 12:29:58 PM  

Paul Baumer: thomps: quatchi: Nate Silver used to play cards for money.

He's used to winning bets from suckers.

Go for it, Joe. You know unless...

*Bwak bwak bwak*

/Yuppo, just having some fun now.

eh, if joe really thinks it's a toss-up he might not be interested at getting in with even odds. if silver really thinks it's an 80% chance for obama, he should be willing to give joe a little better than even money.

Joe's the one who claims it's 50/50, so no odds should be given. Still not something Nate should have started though.


right but that means he doesn't think he has any advantage at even money, so if he's at all risk averse he'd stay away from the bet. what does he have to gain by betting on an expected value of zero?
 
2012-11-01 12:30:49 PM  
I'm enjoying all the armchair quarterbacks telling Nate Silver that he's being petty for not straight up donating the money to charity. I assume all of these soapbox chirpers are themselves donating money to charity? This is a vicious cycle where someone will reply to me saying I too need to just give to charity rather than chide the holy rollers. Then someone will tell that guy to give to charity. Soon we'll *all* be donating our hard earned money to charity.

/thanks a lot, Nate Silver
 
2012-11-01 12:30:51 PM  

Paul Baumer: Still not something Nate should have started though.


Nate started this? How?

/genuinely curious
 
2012-11-01 12:31:36 PM  

Decillion: If Obama wins, who on Fark is brave enough to go Freep diving and bring back headsplosion quotes?


There once was someone brave enough, but sadly the stupid modmins thought that it constitu.....*******CARRIER LOST*******
 
2012-11-01 12:31:50 PM  

Decillion: If Obama wins, who on Fark is brave enough to go Freep diving and bring back headsplosion quotes?


We shouldn't have to; we'll get enough right here on Fark.
 
2012-11-01 12:32:54 PM  

Epoch_Zero: Decillion: If Obama wins, who on Fark is brave enough to go Freep diving and bring back headsplosion quotes?

There once was someone brave enough, but sadly the stupid modmins thought that it constitu.....*******CARRIER LOST*******


Yeah, there's at least one freeper hack lurking among the modmins.
 
2012-11-01 12:33:14 PM  

quatchi: Nate Silver used to play cards for money.

He's used to winning bets from suckers.

Go for it, Joe. You know unless...

*Bwak bwak bwak*

/Yuppo, just having some fun now.


Yeah, his guy is a gambler, and knows his stuff as shown by his comment about taking a Romney bet at 6:1. It's expected value, another concept that the pundits don't understand. Nate doesn't need to win the bet to be making the profitable move, even though the media would explode with glee that he was "wrong."

Good odds? Get your money in the pot.
 
2012-11-01 12:33:58 PM  

Anti_illuminati: Decillion: If Obama wins, who on Fark is brave enough to go Freep diving and bring back headsplosion quotes?

We shouldn't have to; we'll get enough right here on Fark.


if history holds, they usually disappear for a few days after the election. many come back sporting shiny new alts.
 
2012-11-01 12:35:41 PM  
I bet Scarborough won't put his money where his mouth is. I will put up $5000 on Obama to his $4000. If he really thinks the election is a tossup, he should take that bet. It has good pot odds, right? Hell, I might even put up $5000 against $3000.
 
2012-11-01 12:36:01 PM  
Decillion: If Obama wins, who on Fark is brave enough to go Freep diving and bring back headsplosion quotes?

It doesn't take much bravery, only a little orgasmization:

American Thinker
"It's Over: Obama's Losing and Losing Big"
http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/09/its_over.html

Matthew Henderson, communications director for the Ohio Republican Party
""Everything on the ground is telling us that this race (in Ohio) is still neck-and-neck."
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/09/obama-favorite-ohio-blue-st a te.php?ref=fpb

David Limbaugh
"10 Reasons Mitt Will Win"
http://townhall.com/columnists/davidlimbaugh/2012/09/25/10_reasons_mi t t_will_win

Dick Morris: everything is going great; Romney wins by 4-5% and the polls are wrong
Fox News
http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/09/25/opening_act_the_poll_sam p le_truthers.html?wpisrc=newsletter_jcr:content

Romney with a landslide lead of 7.8%
"Unskewed Polls"
http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/09/24/dean_chambers_meet_the_g u y_who_s_re_weighting_polls_to_show_romney_way_ahead_of_obama.html

American Thinker
"Why Romney is Going Romp Over Obama in November"
http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/09/why_romney_is_going_to_romp_ov e r_obama_in_november.html

Fox News
"2012 is Just Like 1980"
http://video.foxnews.com/v/1845958024001/cavuto-2012-is-just-like-198 0 /?playlist_id=87262&intcmp=obnetwork

Rand Paul
"I Think That Romney Has Already Won"
http://dailycaller.com/2012/09/20/rand-paul-i-think-the-election-is-o v er-i-think-that-romney-has-already-won/

Ted Nugent
"I'll be dead or in jail if Obama is re-elected"
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/04/quote-of-the-day- t ed-nugent-threatens-barack-obama/256025/

William Gensert (on Halloween)
"Barack Obama will lose this election in a landslide"
http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/10/its_not_over.html
 
2012-11-01 12:36:17 PM  
Scarborough is a smarmy douche bag...

"It's a horse race!!!! No one can make any predictions!! Please watch my horrible show... Please."
 
2012-11-01 12:36:42 PM  
Did Silver offer 3 to 1 odds to line up with his probability calculation?

Nope.

And yeah, if Romney wins, Silver isn't wrong. He never said Romney couldn't win. That's just the spin out of kos and most kos trolls here.
 
2012-11-01 12:36:52 PM  

Anti_illuminati: Paul Baumer: Still not something Nate should have started though.

Nate started this? How?

/genuinely curious


The bet was Nate's idea. As I said upthread, I find donation bets in the middle of an emergency in poor taste, and allows Joe to simply say "why don't we both just donate money instead of having a stupid bet?". Scarborough is a dope, but Nate just handed him a stick to beat him with and obfuscate the clear lack of understanding most pundits exhibit about polling in general and 538 in particular.
 
2012-11-01 12:38:04 PM  

SacriliciousBeerSwiller: Hell, the surely don't factor in the swing state pro-GOP voting machine tampering that's gone on the last 3 elections.


The evidence is pretty poor for such an assertion.
 
2012-11-01 12:38:42 PM  

quatchi: Nate Silver used to play cards for money.


Got a link for that? I'd love to read it.
 
2012-11-01 12:38:49 PM  

KellyX: SacriliciousBeerSwiller: Cletus C.: If I were a betting type person I'd bet on Obama. It's like having a queen and a nine at a blackjack table while the dealer is showing a five. You like your odds but it's no sure thing.

Yeah, except when I play blackjack the dealer would just pull 5-3-4-4..."21...oooohhh that sucks, sorry guys...I swear that never happens!"...then it happens two hands later. Blackjack is only reasonably good odds if you double down and split every time you are "supposed to"...people forget that. Otherwise the house will rape you every single f*cking time.

/bitter

Winner winner, chicken dinner!

/honestly just need to know how blackjack works, you're only playing against the dealer and if the table knows how to work together to do that, everyone wins


Hey look someone who doesn't understand how odds work. No matter what the before in front of you does it has no effect on your cards. Him/her hitting on 18 is just as likely to help you as hurt you.
 
2012-11-01 12:43:11 PM  

Jsin82: KellyX: SacriliciousBeerSwiller: Cletus C.: If I were a betting type person I'd bet on Obama. It's like having a queen and a nine at a blackjack table while the dealer is showing a five. You like your odds but it's no sure thing.

Yeah, except when I play blackjack the dealer would just pull 5-3-4-4..."21...oooohhh that sucks, sorry guys...I swear that never happens!"...then it happens two hands later. Blackjack is only reasonably good odds if you double down and split every time you are "supposed to"...people forget that. Otherwise the house will rape you every single f*cking time.

/bitter

Winner winner, chicken dinner!

/honestly just need to know how blackjack works, you're only playing against the dealer and if the table knows how to work together to do that, everyone wins

Hey look someone who doesn't understand how odds work. No matter what the before in front of you does it has no effect on your cards. Him/her hitting on 18 is just as likely to help you as hurt you.


Ok =)
 
2012-11-01 12:44:13 PM  
www.acting-man.com
Looks like you dropped this when making your bet, Nate: "0"
 
2012-11-01 12:44:26 PM  

KellyX: Jsin82: KellyX: SacriliciousBeerSwiller: Cletus C.: If I were a betting type person I'd bet on Obama. It's like having a queen and a nine at a blackjack table while the dealer is showing a five. You like your odds but it's no sure thing.

Yeah, except when I play blackjack the dealer would just pull 5-3-4-4..."21...oooohhh that sucks, sorry guys...I swear that never happens!"...then it happens two hands later. Blackjack is only reasonably good odds if you double down and split every time you are "supposed to"...people forget that. Otherwise the house will rape you every single f*cking time.

/bitter

Winner winner, chicken dinner!

/honestly just need to know how blackjack works, you're only playing against the dealer and if the table knows how to work together to do that, everyone wins

Hey look someone who doesn't understand how odds work. No matter what the before in front of you does it has no effect on your cards. Him/her hitting on 18 is just as likely to help you as hurt you.

Ok =)


Wow that's the friendliest response I've ever seen on fark.
 
2012-11-01 12:44:33 PM  

Paul Baumer: Anti_illuminati: Paul Baumer: Still not something Nate should have started though.

Nate started this? How?

/genuinely curious

The bet was Nate's idea. As I said upthread, I find donation bets in the middle of an emergency in poor taste, and allows Joe to simply say "why don't we both just donate money instead of having a stupid bet?". Scarborough is a dope, but Nate just handed him a stick to beat him with and obfuscate the clear lack of understanding most pundits exhibit about polling in general and 538 in particular.


I don't know. Nate's response was pretty legit. Nate will keep increasing the limit and Joe will keep stating let's just donate all of it. At some point, Jow will have to accept/decline the bet.

"Nate Silver
@fivethirtyeight
.@JoeNBC: Better idea: Let's bet $2,000./ MT @fivethirtyeight Why don't we both agree to donate $1,000 to the Red Cross right now?"

I have no problem with what Nate did, and after Joe's ridiculous accusations on Nate, I'm just fine with Nate's response and the way he's handling it.
 
2012-11-01 12:48:06 PM  

Anti_illuminati: Paul Baumer: Anti_illuminati: Paul Baumer: Still not something Nate should have started though.

Nate started this? How?

/genuinely curious

The bet was Nate's idea. As I said upthread, I find donation bets in the middle of an emergency in poor taste, and allows Joe to simply say "why don't we both just donate money instead of having a stupid bet?". Scarborough is a dope, but Nate just handed him a stick to beat him with and obfuscate the clear lack of understanding most pundits exhibit about polling in general and 538 in particular.

I don't know. Nate's response was pretty legit. Nate will keep increasing the limit and Joe will keep stating let's just donate all of it. At some point, Jow will have to accept/decline the bet.

"Nate Silver
@fivethirtyeight
.@JoeNBC: Better idea: Let's bet $2,000./ MT @fivethirtyeight Why don't we both agree to donate $1,000 to the Red Cross right now?"

I have no problem with what Nate did, and after Joe's ridiculous accusations on Nate, I'm just fine with Nate's response and the way he's handling it.


The important question is "who is blackmailing whom?" Every situation these days constitutes blackmail.
 
2012-11-01 12:48:14 PM  

Jsin82: KellyX: Jsin82: KellyX: SacriliciousBeerSwiller: Cletus C.: If I were a betting type person I'd bet on Obama. It's like having a queen and a nine at a blackjack table while the dealer is showing a five. You like your odds but it's no sure thing.

Yeah, except when I play blackjack the dealer would just pull 5-3-4-4..."21...oooohhh that sucks, sorry guys...I swear that never happens!"...then it happens two hands later. Blackjack is only reasonably good odds if you double down and split every time you are "supposed to"...people forget that. Otherwise the house will rape you every single f*cking time.

/bitter

Winner winner, chicken dinner!

/honestly just need to know how blackjack works, you're only playing against the dealer and if the table knows how to work together to do that, everyone wins

Hey look someone who doesn't understand how odds work. No matter what the before in front of you does it has no effect on your cards. Him/her hitting on 18 is just as likely to help you as hurt you.

Ok =)

Wow that's the friendliest response I've ever seen on fark.


Well, it seemed pointless to argue/debate over it, I personally know someone that can sit at a table with 100 in her pocket and come away with 5000 at the end of the night, every time.

The trick is to make the dealer bust, that's the goal, and the person working the fall left chair is the anchor and can make or break a whole table. If there's someone in it that doesn't know their role and how to work that seat, whole table will get up and leave, and if you do know how to work it, other players will throw chips to you as a tip for helping them win.
 
2012-11-01 12:50:34 PM  

skullkrusher: The important question is "who is blackmailing whom?" Every situation these days constitutes blackmail.


I'm going to go with extortion. That seems to be another buzz word around these "donation bets".
 
2012-11-01 12:56:07 PM  

Anti_illuminati: skullkrusher: The important question is "who is blackmailing whom?" Every situation these days constitutes blackmail.

I'm going to go with extortion. That seems to be another buzz word around these "donation bets".


if you ask me it is straight up embezzl-arson
 
2012-11-01 12:56:35 PM  
Nate Silver in the bag of the GOP by getting liberals too confident about the election results therefore diminishing the necessity of voting? Next.... on Geraldo!
 
Displayed 50 of 136 comments

First | « | 1 | 2 | 3 | » | Last | Show all

View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest


This thread is archived, and closed to new comments.

Continue Farking
Submit a Link »
Advertisement
On Twitter






In Other Media


  1. Links are submitted by members of the Fark community.

  2. When community members submit a link, they also write a custom headline for the story.

  3. Other Farkers comment on the links. This is the number of comments. Click here to read them.

  4. Click here to submit a link.

Report