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(Hot Air)   The DNC's official polling agency puts Obama up by five in Ohio. If only they realized that unlike like their sample group, 45% of people there are not democrats, and assuming they all went out to vote   (hotair.com) divider line 101
    More: Fail, DNC, obama, Ohio, PPP, exit polls  
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545 clicks; posted to Politics » on 31 Oct 2012 at 2:01 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-31 01:20:10 PM  
So polls don't matter again because your team is losing again I see. Perhaps if your team tried a few radical ideas, like perhaps basing their campaign in reality, not blatantly lying every moment, actually showed even a little bit of specifics, and wasn't a complete douche bag, then maybe he would be winning. But he is not.
 
2012-10-31 01:25:58 PM  
The pertinent part

Oh, let's just skip the rest of the preliminaries and go right to the sample. The D/R/I on this poll is a ridiculous 45/36/19 that assumes Democrats will add six points to their 2008 turnout while independents largely stay home. In 2008, recall, the exit polls showed the electorate at 39/31/30, and the 2010 midterm put it at 36/37/28.

So Democrats had an 8 point lead in the last Presidential election but a 9 point lead this round and this is unpossible?

Why would you compare turnout to 2010 in which nearly have of the electorate shows up to 2008 when nearly twice as many show up.
 
2012-10-31 01:32:28 PM  
Oh, my dear little libbies. You pile up enough tomorrows, and you'll find you are left with nothing but a lot of empty yesterdays. I don't know about you, but I'd like to make America worth remembering. Ladies and gentlemen, either you are closing your eyes to a situation you do not wish to acknowledge, or you are not aware of the caliber of disaster indicated by the real numbers of your poll samplings! Thank God for unskewed polls - that 538 pish-posh is slipperier then a Mississippi sturgeon...
 
2012-10-31 01:40:16 PM  

Elzar: Oh, my dear little libbies. You pile up enough tomorrows, and you'll find you are left with nothing but a lot of empty yesterdays. I don't know about you, but I'd like to make America worth remembering. Ladies and gentlemen, either you are closing your eyes to a situation you do not wish to acknowledge, or you are not aware of the caliber of disaster indicated by the real numbers of your poll samplings! Thank God for unskewed polls - that 538 pish-posh is slipperier then a Mississippi sturgeon...


Truly, it is like you are conducting a masterclass in the art. 10/10. Bravo.
 
2012-10-31 01:44:25 PM  

AdolfOliverPanties: Truly, it is like you are conducting a masterclass in the art. 10/10. Bravo.


Sometimes to the layperson, even little skill appears to be a lot.
 
2012-10-31 01:52:21 PM  
It's almost like pollsters don't weight for party ID, other than Rasmussen,
 
2012-10-31 01:54:49 PM  

Counter_Intelligent: AdolfOliverPanties: Truly, it is like you are conducting a masterclass in the art. 10/10. Bravo.

Sometimes to the layperson, even little skill appears to be a lot.


Well excuse the fark out of me. I appreciate a troll that doesn't go overboard and only gives it away with one or two tiny hints.
 
2012-10-31 02:03:42 PM  

mrshowrules: Why would you compare turnout to 2010 in which nearly have of the electorate shows up to 2008 when nearly twice as many show up.


I was with you right up until this sentence. Now, I'm taking cold medicine, so it might just be me, but it seems like you wrote it, then ran it through a couple of other languages in Google translate before re-translating it back to English.
 
2012-10-31 02:04:19 PM  
Headline grammar and sentence structure brought to you by proposed GOP education standards.
 
2012-10-31 02:04:35 PM  
In Nate Silver We Trust
 
DGS [TotalFark]
2012-10-31 02:04:38 PM  

AdolfOliverPanties: Counter_Intelligent: AdolfOliverPanties: Truly, it is like you are conducting a masterclass in the art. 10/10. Bravo.

Sometimes to the layperson, even little skill appears to be a lot.

Well excuse the fark out of me. I appreciate a troll that doesn't go overboard and only gives it away with one or two tiny hints.


I was busy looking for song references, I missed the context entirely. It was a good one?
 
2012-10-31 02:05:04 PM  
So we are back to polls don't matter? Good to know. I'm sure on election day the polls won't matter either.
 
2012-10-31 02:05:13 PM  
Polls - if it shows Obama ahead it is partisan, if it doesn't then it's full of truthiness.
 
2012-10-31 02:05:15 PM  
I guess we'll see who's full of hot air in a week, now won't we.
 
2012-10-31 02:05:18 PM  

Lurking Fear: So polls don't matter again because your team is losing again I see. Perhaps if your team tried a few radical ideas, like perhaps basing their campaign in reality, not blatantly lying every moment, actually showed even a little bit of specifics, and wasn't a complete douche bag, then maybe he would be winning. But he is not.


Just yesterday they were saying the poll that had a large sampling of Republicans was proof and of course that magically changes when it goes the other way.
 
2012-10-31 02:05:27 PM  

mrshowrules: So Democrats had an 8 point lead in the last Presidential election but a 9 point lead this round and this is unpossible?


America is a conservative country. It's ridiculous to think that the Liberal Socialist Communist Fascist Dumbocrat partyhas grown since their failed leader took office in 2008.
 
2012-10-31 02:05:33 PM  
I totallastically do not unlike like subby's masteration of the English languagacity.
 
2012-10-31 02:05:45 PM  

AdolfOliverPanties: Counter_Intelligent: AdolfOliverPanties: Truly, it is like you are conducting a masterclass in the art. 10/10. Bravo.

Sometimes to the layperson, even little skill appears to be a lot.

Well excuse the fark out of me. I appreciate a troll that doesn't go overboard and only gives it away with one or two tiny hints.


I tend to agree with you, however, I think we may all just be appreciating hearing from a change of troll. Perhaps a 7.5/10 adjusted for over zealous enthusiasm?
 
2012-10-31 02:06:02 PM  

Elzar: Oh, my dear little libbies. You pile up enough tomorrows, and you'll find you are left with nothing but a lot of empty yesterdays. I don't know about you, but I'd like to make America worth remembering. Ladies and gentlemen, either you are closing your eyes to a situation you do not wish to acknowledge, or you are not aware of the caliber of disaster indicated by the real numbers of your poll samplings! Thank God for unskewed polls - that 538 pish-posh is slipperier then a Mississippi sturgeon...

BAM!


Also, I've read the headline 5 times, and I still have no idea what "and assuming they all went out to vote" is doing in that sentence.
 
2012-10-31 02:06:47 PM  

Elzar: Oh, my dear little libbies. You pile up enough tomorrows, and you'll find you are left with nothing but a lot of empty yesterdays. I don't know about you, but I'd like to make America worth remembering. Ladies and gentlemen, either you are closing your eyes to a situation you do not wish to acknowledge, or you are not aware of the caliber of disaster indicated by the real numbers of your poll samplings! Thank God for unskewed polls - that 538 pish-posh is slipperier then a Mississippi sturgeon...


Because ADJUSTING numbers to how you want them to be is "Unskewed" but accepting the numbers as they are is "skewing"? You really live in an Orwellian/Bizaro world.
 
2012-10-31 02:06:50 PM  

DamnYankees: It's almost like pollsters don't weight for party ID, other than Rasmussen,


If the polls include the bottom 47%, then they don't count.
 
2012-10-31 02:08:42 PM  
Subby:
www.slate.com
 
2012-10-31 02:09:06 PM  

AdolfOliverPanties: Elzar: Oh, my dear little libbies. You pile up enough tomorrows, and you'll find you are left with nothing but a lot of empty yesterdays. I don't know about you, but I'd like to make America worth remembering. Ladies and gentlemen, either you are closing your eyes to a situation you do not wish to acknowledge, or you are not aware of the caliber of disaster indicated by the real numbers of your poll samplings! Thank God for unskewed polls - that 538 pish-posh is slipperier then a Mississippi sturgeon...

Truly, it is like you are conducting a masterclass in the art. 10/10. Bravo.


Agreed. Take notes people, not often you get a lesson of this caliber for free.
 
2012-10-31 02:09:15 PM  
Unskewed polls nonsense aside, PPP has a house effect of D+3. Factoring that in puts the poll at Obama up by two, which is fairly consistent with polling not just now, but throughout the race.
 
2012-10-31 02:09:21 PM  

beta_plus: In Nate Silver We Trust


and yet again you drop you little nugget of contempt...

How about if you disagree with Nate's conclusions, you present a logical, emotion free argument refuting them?
 
2012-10-31 02:09:33 PM  

phritz:
Also, I've read the headline 5 times, and I still have no idea what "and assuming they all went out to vote" is doing in that sentence.


I'm still wondering how they were able to get such granularity in their poll.

Being 5 votes ahead in a state of 11,544,951 residents seems too close to call if you ask me.
 
2012-10-31 02:09:39 PM  
Fact 1) Romney can't win without Ohio.

Fact 2) Obama has kept a lead of about 4 points +/- 2 the last 6 months in that state.

Fact 3) Laugh at Ohio all you want, we control the direction of the nation.
 
2012-10-31 02:09:47 PM  
I suppose assuming the author of that mess has never been in a Stats class in his life goes without saying, yes?
 
2012-10-31 02:09:50 PM  
Their will go out and vote, because assuming 45% is there.
 
2012-10-31 02:10:04 PM  

Elzar: Oh, my dear little libbies. You pile up enough tomorrows, and you'll find you are left with nothing but a lot of empty yesterdays. I don't know about you, but I'd like to make America worth remembering. Ladies and gentlemen, either you are closing your eyes to a situation you do not wish to acknowledge, or you are not aware of the caliber of disaster indicated by the real numbers of your poll samplings! Thank God for unskewed polls - that 538 pish-posh is slipperier then a Mississippi sturgeon...




Magnificent. 10/10
 
2012-10-31 02:10:14 PM  
Dem Turnout is already going to be lower this year than 2008, yet these pollsters are showing a higher Dem turnout,

I've yet to see a good argument rejecting that claim. Nov 6th could be a very bad day....
 
2012-10-31 02:11:46 PM  
The need of retards to compare a low turnout mid term election to a highly engaged Presidential election will never cease being funny.



media.tumblr.com
The Tea Party is still real to me, dammit!!!
 
2012-10-31 02:11:59 PM  

Elzar: You pile up enough tomorrows, and you'll find you are left with nothing but a lot of empty yesterdays.


Is that from a song or something? If not it should be. It should be titled "Little Libby".
 
2012-10-31 02:12:07 PM  

Drakin020: Dem Turnout is already going to be lower this year than 2008, yet these pollsters are showing a higher Dem turnout,

I've yet to see a good argument rejecting that claim. Nov 6th could be a very bad day....


I know. I'm going to have to invest in a bullet-proof vest if Obama wins, because conservative "lone wolves" will be shooting people all over the place.
 
2012-10-31 02:12:52 PM  

Drakin020: Dem Turnout is already going to be lower this year than 2008, yet these pollsters are showing a higher Dem turnout,

I've yet to see a good argument rejecting that claim. Nov 6th could be a very bad day....


www.welovetheiraqiinformationminister.com
 
2012-10-31 02:14:32 PM  
Don't get me wrong, I'm pulling for Obama big time, but I fear the Derpers might be right on this whole Dem turnout thing.

How can you claim that turnouts will be higher than the last election when we have already seen evidence of a lower turnout. (Early voting)
 
2012-10-31 02:16:12 PM  

physt: beta_plus: In Nate Silver We Trust

and yet again you drop you little nugget of contempt...

How about if you disagree with Nate's conclusions, you present a logical, emotion free argument refuting them?


Better idea.

If Nate's wrong and Romney loses he deletes his account and goes the fark away.

(We also should be doing this with Bill Kristol)
 
2012-10-31 02:17:00 PM  

AdolfOliverPanties: 10/10. Bravo.


Oh please. People around here throw praise around too easily.
 
2012-10-31 02:17:14 PM  
Polling arguments are stupid but entertaining. But this gem in tfa was interesting.

Even the CBS/NYT/Q-poll today showed GOP enthusiasm leading by 14 in Ohio, 57/43.

They're polling enthusiasm? Is it like a cheerleading contest?

We've got spirit, yes we do! We've got spirit, how 'bout you?"

Sorry for not paying attention to the enthusiasm meters.
 
2012-10-31 02:19:12 PM  

Drakin020: Don't get me wrong, I'm pulling for Obama big time, but I fear the Derpers might be right on this whole Dem turnout thing.

How can you claim that turnouts will be higher than the last election when we have already seen evidence of a lower turnout. (Early voting)


You sound ....... concerned.
 
2012-10-31 02:19:34 PM  

ltdanman44: Fact 1) Romney can't win without Ohio.

Fact 2) Obama has kept a lead of about 4 points +/- 2 the last 6 months in that state.

Fact 3) Laugh at Ohio all you want, we control the direction of the nation.


Fact 1 and 2 are true, but fact 3 is not. Obama has several other paths to victory. Ohio is not NECESSARILY the tipping state.

Romney needs it, Obama doesn't necessarily.
 
2012-10-31 02:20:02 PM  
Romney has this election locked up. It's over. He won. Time to get on with our lives.


Also, don't forget to vote for Obama on Nov 8.
 
2012-10-31 02:21:30 PM  

Tigger: physt: beta_plus: In Nate Silver We Trust

and yet again you drop you little nugget of contempt...

How about if you disagree with Nate's conclusions, you present a logical, emotion free argument refuting them?

Better idea.

If Nate's wrong and Romney loses he deletes his account and goes the fark away.

(We also should be doing this with Bill Kristol)


You mean if Nate's right and Rmoney loses, beta_plus slinks away into the night, right?
 
2012-10-31 02:22:31 PM  

Elzar: Oh, my dear little libbies. You pile up enough tomorrows, and you'll find you are left with nothing but a lot of empty yesterdays. I don't know about you, but I'd like to make America worth remembering. Ladies and gentlemen, either you are closing your eyes to a situation you do not wish to acknowledge, or you are not aware of the caliber of disaster indicated by the real numbers of your poll samplings! Thank God for unskewed polls - that 538 pish-posh is slipperier then a Mississippi sturgeon...


orsonwellsclapping.gif
 
2012-10-31 02:23:07 PM  

mrshowrules: The pertinent part

Oh, let's just skip the rest of the preliminaries and go right to the sample. The D/R/I on this poll is a ridiculous 45/36/19 that assumes Democrats will add six points to their 2008 turnout while independents largely stay home. In 2008, recall, the exit polls showed the electorate at 39/31/30, and the 2010 midterm put it at 36/37/28.

So Democrats had an 8 point lead in the last Presidential election but a 9 point lead this round and this is unpossible?

Why would you compare turnout to 2010 in which nearly have of the electorate shows up to 2008 when nearly twice as many show up.


Republicans gain 5 points out of the 11 independent percent that chose a side between 2008 and 2012. Democrats gain 6 percent.

ZOMG CONSPIRACY!!!!!
 
2012-10-31 02:23:27 PM  

Cletus C.: Polling arguments are stupid but entertaining. But this gem in tfa was interesting.

Even the CBS/NYT/Q-poll today showed GOP enthusiasm leading by 14 in Ohio, 57/43.

They're polling enthusiasm? Is it like a cheerleading contest?

We've got spirit, yes we do! We've got spirit, how 'bout you?"

Sorry for not paying attention to the enthusiasm meters.


I LOL'd, because a week from this morning it will be more like...

Nut and bolts!
Nuts and bolts!
WE GOT SCREWED!!!
 
2012-10-31 02:27:34 PM  

Drakin020: Don't get me wrong, I'm pulling for Obama big time, but I fear the Derpers might be right on this whole Dem turnout thing.

How can you claim that turnouts will be higher than the last election when we have already seen evidence of a lower turnout. (Early voting)


What numbers are you going by? And why are you comparing sample sizes to turnout?
 
2012-10-31 02:28:21 PM  

AdolfOliverPanties: Elzar: Oh, my dear little libbies. You pile up enough tomorrows, and you'll find you are left with nothing but a lot of empty yesterdays. I don't know about you, but I'd like to make America worth remembering. Ladies and gentlemen, either you are closing your eyes to a situation you do not wish to acknowledge, or you are not aware of the caliber of disaster indicated by the real numbers of your poll samplings! Thank God for unskewed polls - that 538 pish-posh is slipperier then a Mississippi sturgeon...

Truly, it is like you are conducting a masterclass in the art. 10/10. Bravo.


I think it's pretty farking boring.
 
2012-10-31 02:28:35 PM  

Bill Frist: ltdanman44: Fact 1) Romney can't win without Ohio.

Fact 2) Obama has kept a lead of about 4 points +/- 2 the last 6 months in that state.

Fact 3) Laugh at Ohio all you want, we control the direction of the nation.

Fact 1 and 2 are true, but fact 3 is not. Obama has several other paths to victory. Ohio is not NECESSARILY the tipping state.

Romney needs it, Obama doesn't necessarily.


While Ohio might not technically be necessary for Obama, I find it difficult to conceive of a situation where he loses Ohio, but wins say, Virginia. Ohio is just a really good predictor for Presidential elections thanks to it's demographic mix even if it's not technically mandatory for victory.
 
2012-10-31 02:29:21 PM  

beta_plus: In Nate Silver We Trust


Going to spam every polling thread with your Republican butthurt?
 
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