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(The New York Times)   Right-wing blog hate of Nate Silver up to 77.4%   (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) divider line 409
    More: Obvious  
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5218 clicks; posted to Politics » on 31 Oct 2012 at 10:12 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-31 08:27:17 AM
Thats what happens when, like, 8 polls in Ohio come out showing Obama up between 3 and 5.
 
2012-10-31 08:41:30 AM

DamnYankees: Thats what happens when, like, 8 polls in Ohio come out showing Obama up between 3 and 5.


This.

As statistically geeky as his site is, I'd like to see a few more things...

1. Historical line charts for each state of the day by day "odds" for the state (like he has for the overall presidential odds)

2. Ability to overlay two (or more) of those charts. My gut feeling is, whatever % Ohio is is very close to the overall odds of winning at any time.
 
2012-10-31 08:44:22 AM

dletter: 2. Ability to overlay two (or more) of those charts. My gut feeling is, whatever % Ohio is is very close to the overall odds of winning at any time.


That would be interesting. Maybe just release an excel file with that information.
 
2012-10-31 08:46:10 AM

dletter: DamnYankees: Thats what happens when, like, 8 polls in Ohio come out showing Obama up between 3 and 5.

This.

As statistically geeky as his site is, I'd like to see a few more things...

1. Historical line charts for each state of the day by day "odds" for the state (like he has for the overall presidential odds)

2. Ability to overlay two (or more) of those charts. My gut feeling is, whatever % Ohio is is very close to the overall odds of winning at any time.


You can just scroll over Ohio on the map and see that the percent chance of Ohio going for Obama is really close to the same as the chance of him winning the election.
 
2012-10-31 08:48:17 AM
Or you could hover over Ohio on the map. Whatevs.
 
2012-10-31 08:48:54 AM
Well, of course they hate him. He uses math.
 
2012-10-31 08:55:01 AM

what_now: Well, of course they hate him. He uses math.


And according to them, he is also masculine challenged.
 
2012-10-31 08:59:07 AM

dletter: DamnYankees: Thats what happens when, like, 8 polls in Ohio come out showing Obama up between 3 and 5.

This.

As statistically geeky as his site is, I'd like to see a few more things...

1. Historical line charts for each state of the day by day "odds" for the state (like he has for the overall presidential odds)

2. Ability to overlay two (or more) of those charts. My gut feeling is, whatever % Ohio is is very close to the overall odds of winning at any time.


Princeton has that data layout:
election.princeton.edu

But I think Sandy has knocked him offline...Google Cache maybe?
 
2012-10-31 08:59:50 AM

Bladel: But I think Sandy has knocked him offline...Google Cache maybe?


I dont know whats going on with him. He said on Monday night he was moving his server, and the site was up yesterday.
 
2012-10-31 09:07:34 AM
I had problems accessing it about 20 minutes ago, but it looks like Wang fixed whatever was wrong.

Link
 
2012-10-31 09:13:01 AM

WorldCitizen: dletter: DamnYankees: Thats what happens when, like, 8 polls in Ohio come out showing Obama up between 3 and 5.

This.

As statistically geeky as his site is, I'd like to see a few more things...

1. Historical line charts for each state of the day by day "odds" for the state (like he has for the overall presidential odds)

2. Ability to overlay two (or more) of those charts. My gut feeling is, whatever % Ohio is is very close to the overall odds of winning at any time.

You can just scroll over Ohio on the map and see that the percent chance of Ohio going for Obama is really close to the same as the chance of him winning the election.


Um, duh, I know that, I can see "right now" obviously, just saying, would be interesting to see "historicals" on the states like he has up with the overall odds. I'll see if that Princeton link comes back up.
 
vpb [TotalFark]
2012-10-31 09:15:13 AM
I wonder if they are going to decided the Nov 6th poll is skewed.
 
2012-10-31 09:23:14 AM

vpb: I wonder if they are going to decided the Nov 6th poll is skewed.


I wonder if some hothead is going to propose "Second Amendment" solutions to correct it.
 
2012-10-31 09:24:23 AM

dletter: WorldCitizen: dletter: DamnYankees: Thats what happens when, like, 8 polls in Ohio come out showing Obama up between 3 and 5.

This.

As statistically geeky as his site is, I'd like to see a few more things...

1. Historical line charts for each state of the day by day "odds" for the state (like he has for the overall presidential odds)

2. Ability to overlay two (or more) of those charts. My gut feeling is, whatever % Ohio is is very close to the overall odds of winning at any time.

You can just scroll over Ohio on the map and see that the percent chance of Ohio going for Obama is really close to the same as the chance of him winning the election.

Um, duh, I know that, I can see "right now" obviously, just saying, would be interesting to see "historicals" on the states like he has up with the overall odds. I'll see if that Princeton link comes back up.


You haven't been looking and comparing every day? Slacker. What are you, an undecided voter?

/I kid.
 
2012-10-31 09:24:28 AM
A Romney/Ryan ticket isn't beholden to the shell games of the liberal media. They lead by example not by polling and focus groups. Why just the other day, the unskewed polls had him over Obama by 7% and local Ohioan Tea Party groups suggest it will be a clean sweep for Romney.

But lets focus on the things - that matter, not poll bickering and media biasing - but jobs, real American jobs - like the ones Obama has been outsourcing to China. Silly libs - if you outsource all our jobs, who will be left to run your media webs of deceit.

This latest hurricane is a wake up call - America has not been on the right track and while liberals have been polluting our culture, God has responded with a clean sweep of the blue states - foreshadowing a Romney government and the triumphal return of Christ-centered sensibility to Washington.

Its not too late to renounce your evil ways, turn from your idolatrous crutches of reason and logic and open your eyes to the horrific evils gripping our nation today.
 
2012-10-31 09:29:24 AM

Elzar: A Romney/Ryan ticket isn't beholden to the shell games of the liberal media. They lead by example not by polling and focus groups. Why just the other day, the unskewed polls had him over Obama by 7% and local Ohioan Tea Party groups suggest it will be a clean sweep for Romney.

But lets focus on the things - that matter, not poll bickering and media biasing - but jobs, real American jobs - like the ones Obama has been outsourcing to China. Silly libs - if you outsource all our jobs, who will be left to run your media webs of deceit.

This latest hurricane is a wake up call - America has not been on the right track and while liberals have been polluting our culture, God has responded with a clean sweep of the blue states - foreshadowing a Romney government and the triumphal return of Christ-centered sensibility to Washington.

Its not too late to renounce your evil ways, turn from your idolatrous crutches of reason and logic and open your eyes to the horrific evils gripping our nation today.


e / π
 
2012-10-31 09:34:35 AM

dletter: e / π


That works out to about 8.65/10.
 
2012-10-31 09:35:39 AM

Angry Drunk Bureaucrat: dletter: e / π

That works out to about 8.65/10.


Geek thread!
 
2012-10-31 09:41:20 AM
I think I'm starting to like Elzar. Next post he should kick it up a notch with a shake of the spice weasel!

Bam!!
 
2012-10-31 09:49:12 AM
OH, VA, & FL Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS poll: Link
 
2012-10-31 09:53:43 AM

Dusk-You-n-Me: OH, VA, & FL Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS poll: Link


The summary:

Ohio: Obama 50-45
Florida: Obama 48-47
Virginia: Obama 49-47

People who already voted:
Ohio: Obama 60-34
Florida: Obama 50-44

Obama's number's on 538 will probably go up around 2-3% again today with these polls.
 
2012-10-31 09:54:10 AM
You people are still caring about the race? This shiat was over last month. Now the fun part is downticket races.
 
2012-10-31 09:55:22 AM

dletter: People who already voted:
Ohio: Obama 60-34


Also interesting here on the "already voted" is 2% said they voted for "other" (which is a pretty significant % for "other" really)... the Gary Johnson effect in Ohio might already be playing out.
 
2012-10-31 09:55:35 AM

Elandriel: I think I'm starting to like Elzar. Next post he should kick it up a notch with a shake of the spice weasel!

Bam!!


Is PocketNinja outsourcing to him?
 
2012-10-31 09:56:19 AM

WTF Indeed: You people are still caring about the race? This shiat was over last month. Now the fun part is downticket races.


Over in which way? That Obama has it in the bag, or that you believe the media that Romney is "surging" to victory?
 
2012-10-31 09:59:58 AM

WTF Indeed: You people are still caring about the race? This shiat was over last month. Now the fun part is downticket races.


But the media says this is a neck and neck horse race! Well, unless you are Fox News, then of course, the Republican is winning.
 
2012-10-31 10:03:24 AM

WTF Indeed: You people are still caring about the race? This shiat was over last month. Now the fun part is downticket races.


This worries me, as you've proven to be the Bill Kristol of political predictions this year...
 
2012-10-31 10:05:15 AM

what_now: This worries me, as you've proven to be the Bill Kristol of political predictions this year...


Well at least I'm not the Dick Morris of political predictions, and it's not my fault Texas retard decided this year was a good year to be on drugs.
 
2012-10-31 10:06:27 AM

WTF Indeed: what_now: This worries me, as you've proven to be the Bill Kristol of political predictions this year...

Well at least I'm not the Dick Morris of political predictions, and it's not my fault Texas retard decided this year was a good year to be on drugs.


He's always been that bad!! Also, you were the one who called Santorum as Veep.
 
2012-10-31 10:09:03 AM

what_now: He's always been that bad!! Also, you were the one who called Santorum as Veep.


I said it made sense if he was looking to appease the fundies. He ended up appeasing the neo-cons.
 
2012-10-31 10:13:15 AM

dletter: WorldCitizen: dletter: DamnYankees: Thats what happens when, like, 8 polls in Ohio come out showing Obama up between 3 and 5.

This.

As statistically geeky as his site is, I'd like to see a few more things...

1. Historical line charts for each state of the day by day "odds" for the state (like he has for the overall presidential odds)

2. Ability to overlay two (or more) of those charts. My gut feeling is, whatever % Ohio is is very close to the overall odds of winning at any time.

You can just scroll over Ohio on the map and see that the percent chance of Ohio going for Obama is really close to the same as the chance of him winning the election.

Um, duh, I know that, I can see "right now" obviously, just saying, would be interesting to see "historicals" on the states like he has up with the overall odds. I'll see if that Princeton link comes back up.


State data is also on "Votamatic." But this guy thinks 538 is overstating Romney's chances.
 
2012-10-31 10:15:29 AM

Angry Drunk Bureaucrat: dletter: e / π

That works out to about 8.65/10.


I figured he was just calling him irrational.
 
2012-10-31 10:16:15 AM
A gay dude that uses empirical methods to dispel Republican narrative of a Romney landslide? Say it ain't so!

I thought they'd build him an altar.
 
2012-10-31 10:17:56 AM

dletter: The summary:

Ohio: Obama 50-45
Florida: Obama 48-47
Virginia: Obama 49-47

People who already voted:
Ohio: Obama 60-34
Florida: Obama 50-44


This just shows that traditional polls are becoming more and more useless. Rasmussen only calls landlines and then has an 'online tool' to augment the results. Lots of people don't have landlines. Of those that do, lots have some form of caller ID. Who answers the phone this time of year when it isn't a local number? Even the polls that do dial cell phones suffer from the 'call screening' problem.
 
2012-10-31 10:18:08 AM
Good followup article explaining why your hate is futile.
Link

Scream and shout all you want. :)
 
2012-10-31 10:18:19 AM

WTF Indeed: what_now: He's always been that bad!! Also, you were the one who called Santorum as Veep.

I said it made sense if he was looking to appease the fundies. He ended up appeasing the neo-cons.


Plus, in fairness, Ryan is also a good choice WRT the fundies. Aside from being Catholic, he's pretty extreme on abortion and anti-science stuff.
 
2012-10-31 10:18:40 AM
Their faces this week:
media.tumblr.com

Their faces next week:
images.wikia.com

My face next week: 
img.playground.ru
 
2012-10-31 10:19:01 AM
I'm pretty sure that right wing blog hate of Nate Silver is at 177.4%. Also that right wing math skills are at -0%.
 
2012-10-31 10:19:07 AM

Three Crooked Squirrels: but it looks like Wang fixed whatever was wrong.


Just don't tell them you're jewish

/Dangerfield
 
2012-10-31 10:19:19 AM

dletter: Dusk-You-n-Me: OH, VA, & FL Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS poll: Link

The summary:

Ohio: Obama 50-45
Florida: Obama 48-47
Virginia: Obama 49-47

People who already voted:
Ohio: Obama 60-34
Florida: Obama 50-44

Obama's number's on 538 will probably go up around 2-3% again today with these polls.


Romney's gonna lose Florida. It's a different game than in Ohio.

In Ohio you have to be up a lot because the old people overwhelmingly vote Republican there, and they vote on election day.

In Florida you don't have to be up a lot because many of the old people are transfers from NY and they vote Democrat on election day. It's much closer to 50/50 on that front. So any decent lead in Florida is bad for Romney. Not to mention the huge increase in the number of Hispanic voters.

I would guess VA will go for Obama too when you factor in third party candidates.
 
2012-10-31 10:19:23 AM
Do Nate dog's models include GOP disenfranchisement efforts?
 
2012-10-31 10:19:53 AM

Zerochance: A gay dude that uses empirical methods to dispel Republican narrative of a Romney landslide? Say it ain't so!

I thought they'd build him an altar.


Because when I'm looking for good statistical models and accuracy I always first consider the statistician's sexuality. It only makes sense.
 
2012-10-31 10:20:19 AM

WTF Indeed: what_now: He's always been that bad!! Also, you were the one who called Santorum as Veep.

I said it made sense if he was looking to appease the fundies. He ended up appeasing the neo-cons.


And the skinny dude gym rat contingent.
 
2012-10-31 10:20:34 AM

dletter: My gut feeling is, whatever % Ohio is is very close to the overall odds of winning at any time.


Nate made that exact remark yesterday in his blog.
 
2012-10-31 10:21:22 AM
The math has a liberal bias.
 
2012-10-31 10:21:24 AM

Headso: Do Nate dog's models include GOP disenfranchisement efforts?


That is a very important question. Huge variable.
 
2012-10-31 10:21:26 AM

Zerochance: A gay dude that uses empirical methods to dispel Republican narrative of a Romney landslide? Say it ain't so!

I thought they'd build him an altar.


He's not gay. At least, not that he's ever said.

See, since he's not out farking your mother right now and he's saying that things might be going Obama's way, he's OBVIOUSLY gay. Duh.
 
2012-10-31 10:21:45 AM

Angry Drunk Bureaucrat: vpb: I wonder if they are going to decided the Nov 6th poll is skewed.

I wonder if some hothead is going to propose "Second Amendment" solutions to correct it.


Nah. Most of them are hardcore ITGs who will sulk for the most part. Then as soon as the holidays are over, they will start to sputter up again by bragging about electing a superduperdeedooper majority in the House to thwart Fatboma's every move.

But there may be a few who were so unhinged to start with that they may actually get all shooty in their buttrage. Fortunately, we have SWAT teams who will welcome the target practice.
 
2012-10-31 10:21:49 AM
Nate Silver seems kinda gay. So his numbers must be wrong.

This is what Republicans actually believe.
 
2012-10-31 10:21:55 AM

Elzar: A Romney/Ryan ticket isn't beholden to the shell games of the liberal media. They lead by example not by polling and focus groups. Why just the other day, the unskewed polls had him over Obama by 7% and local Ohioan Tea Party groups suggest it will be a clean sweep for Romney.

But lets focus on the things - that matter, not poll bickering and media biasing - but jobs, real American jobs - like the ones Obama has been outsourcing to China. Silly libs - if you outsource all our jobs, who will be left to run your media webs of deceit.

This latest hurricane is a wake up call - America has not been on the right track and while liberals have been polluting our culture, God has responded with a clean sweep of the blue states - foreshadowing a Romney government and the triumphal return of Christ-centered sensibility to Washington.

Its not too late to renounce your evil ways, turn from your idolatrous crutches of reason and logic and open your eyes to the horrific evils gripping our nation today.


Man, I really miss the days of the hidden messages; movies, 80's rock ballads, video games. I want to see a pun filled rhetorically interesting troll, like something Nabokov would write. Then trolling really would be a art.
 
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