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(Politico)   Nate Silver continues to make conservatives and a media that is desperate for a horse race shiat their britches   ( politico.com) divider line
    More: Amusing, Nate Silver, electoral colleges  
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14855 clicks; posted to Main » on 30 Oct 2012 at 8:56 AM (4 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-30 08:23:52 AM  
Joe Scarborough took a more direct shot, effectively calling Silver an ideologue and "a joke."

"Nate Silver says this is a 73.6 percent chance that the president is going to win? Nobody in that campaign thinks they have a 73 percent chance - they think they have a 50.1 percent chance of winning. And you talk to the Romney people, it's the same thing," Scarborough said. "Both sides understand that it is close, and it could go either way. And anybody that thinks that this race is anything but a tossup right now is such an ideologue, they should be kept away from typewriters, computers, laptops and microphones for the next 10 days, because they're jokes."


He must be blind to irony. Here he is, an admitted ideologue coming up with his own numbers out of thin air (and 50.1 is pure bullshiat) -calling a statistician an ideologue for not doing the same.
 
2012-10-30 08:31:46 AM  
Must be "Knock Nate Silver" week.
 
2012-10-30 08:35:09 AM  
Silver's got that math thing on his side, and we all know math has a well known Liberal bias.
 
2012-10-30 08:45:04 AM  

If @fivethirtyeight wants me to take him seriously, he should unquestioningly repeat what campaign advisers tell him anonymously.

- daveweigel (@daveweigel) October 29, 2012
 
2012-10-30 08:48:17 AM  

Ennuipoet: Silver's got that math thing on his side, and we all know math has a well known Liberal bias.


That's why conservatives have invented their own math. Take their deficit equation: 3-2=8.
 
2012-10-30 08:53:09 AM  
You can tell when Nate Silver gets off the phone with a moronic news outlet because he posts highly passive aggressive things on twitter.
 
2012-10-30 08:58:56 AM  

simplicimus: Must be "Knock Nate Silver" week.


Rightards can never resist a good old-fashioned gay-bashing.
 
2012-10-30 09:00:02 AM  
Unskewed polls says that Romney is going to win.

That's all I need.
 
2012-10-30 09:00:39 AM  
Joe Scarborough took a more direct shot, effectively calling Silver an ideologue and "a joke."

Election Projection is run by a Christian conservative. He got 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2010 almost exactly right, and is projecting Obama to get 290 EV. I haven't seen a single projection with Obama behind.
 
2012-10-30 09:00:54 AM  
 
2012-10-30 09:01:50 AM  
Horse dance, submitter.
 
2012-10-30 09:01:56 AM  
Haters gonna hate.
 
2012-10-30 09:04:03 AM  

simplicimus: Must be "Knock Nate Silver" week.


It's the joy of being a pundit. Nobody remembers when you are wrong. Silver says Obama has a 75% chance of winning ( which means he can still lose!).

If Obama wins, nobody will call out the pundits who knockedSilver. If Romney wins, OMG the election model nerds are so stupid!
 
2012-10-30 09:04:31 AM  
"All you have to do is take an average, and count to 270. It's a pretty simple set of facts. I'm sorry that Joe is math-challenged."

Oh snap!
 
2012-10-30 09:05:11 AM  
The race seems neck-and-neck to me.

One thing's for sure: half of the country is plain old crazy.

The scary thing is that the above statement is a neutral one.
 
2012-10-30 09:06:41 AM  

BSABSVR: If Romney wins, OMG the election model nerds are so stupid!


If Romney wins, Silver still wasn't wrong.

If Romney were to win 28 times out of 100 (as of today), then Silver would have been wrong.
 
2012-10-30 09:06:49 AM  
So Joe supports the reality that lines his pockets and ratings? I'd be surprised, but I'm saving what little I have left in case Romney actually wins
 
2012-10-30 09:06:52 AM  
Times columnist David Brooks, a moderate conservative...

Your blog moderately sucks.
 
2012-10-30 09:06:59 AM  
and this may shock the coffee-drinking NPR types of Seattle, San Francisco and Madison, Wis

This is where you lost your credibility.
 
2012-10-30 09:07:00 AM  
Intrade: 62-38

Werent there articles of a collapse when it went down in the 50s?
 
2012-10-30 09:07:24 AM  

rufus-t-firefly: Joe Scarborough took a more direct shot, effectively calling Silver an ideologue and "a joke."

Election Projection is run by a Christian conservative. He got 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2010 almost exactly right, and is projecting Obama to get 290 EV. I haven't seen a single projection with Obama behind.


Even RCP, which puts in every junk Rassmussen or Gravis marketing in has never once all year had Obama losing the EC. In fact during Mittmentumtm Obama actually gained 271 to 281 and then the last week it had him up to 290... this from the website that takes every piece of crap poll that the right pushes out to sustain a false narrative and it still had Obama with a healthy EC lead.
 
2012-10-30 09:07:59 AM  

rufus-t-firefly: Joe Scarborough took a more direct shot, effectively calling Silver an ideologue and "a joke."

Election Projection is run by a Christian conservative. He got 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2010 almost exactly right, and is projecting Obama to get 290 EV. I haven't seen a single projection with Obama behind.


This... I'm a big fan of Nate but since a fellow farker posted this site a few days ago I've been delving into his numbers as well. Interesting stuff and while Mr. Elliot has POTUS with 4 less EV votes (Nate has him at 294) he seems more confident in his number.
 
2012-10-30 09:08:55 AM  
National vote != Electoral Vote

Electoral Vote is all that matters and if anyone thinks that the campaigns don't know this . . .

Yet they all talk about the National Vote because that is the thing that is close.

/Sure hope Rmoney wins the popular vote while Obama wins the Electoral Vote
//Just to get even for Bush v. Gore.
 
2012-10-30 09:09:23 AM  

NobleHam: and this may shock the coffee-drinking NPR types of Seattle, San Francisco and Madison, Wis

This is where you lost your credibility.


Conservatives don't drink coffee?
 
2012-10-30 09:10:09 AM  
I was having fun with dolts yesterday who kept insisting that Romney has a lead (but who were only looking at useless national polls) by trying to explain to them that no one had Romney in an electoral lead (even the one dipshiat who kept insisting that RCP does). They didn't take kindly to reality.
 
2012-10-30 09:10:21 AM  
And, of course, TFA completely misses that even if Romney wins, that doesn't make NS "wrong". Statistically, Romnay has a 1/4 shot of winning - just because the chances of flipping heads 5 times in a row is statistically small, that doesn't mean it can't happen.

That being said, this table from 538 shows a pretty good reason why Romney has an uphill battle.... If you start from the bottom and get to 270, he needs to pick up a bunch of blue-leaning states:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/4hobobibphy3fof/Photo%20Oct%2030%2C%209%200 6 %2055%20AM.png
 
2012-10-30 09:10:31 AM  

rufus-t-firefly: Joe Scarborough took a more direct shot, effectively calling Silver an ideologue and "a joke."

Election Projection is run by a Christian conservative. He got 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2010 almost exactly right, and is projecting Obama to get 290 EV. I haven't seen a single projection with Obama behind.


You are correct. I've followed his site since the '04 election and while he's not dead-on, he's usually pretty close. And he's definitely not a liberal. So I always take a gander at both Election Projection and 538 to get an idea of what's likely to happen.
 
2012-10-30 09:10:52 AM  
Nate Silver says this is a 73.6 percent chance that the president is going to win? Nobody in that campaign thinks they have a 73 percent chance - they think they have a 50.1 percent chance of winning. And you talk to the Romney people, it's the same thing," Scarborough said. "Both sides understand that it is close, and it could go either way.

73% chance is a little worse than a 3 in 4 shot. That's actually pretty good odds for Romney. It's no different than flipping a coin twice and getting 'tails' both times.
 
2012-10-30 09:10:53 AM  

Pants full of macaroni!!: NobleHam: and this may shock the coffee-drinking NPR types of Seattle, San Francisco and Madison, Wis

This is where you lost your credibility.

Conservatives don't drink coffee?


They stand in solidarity with Romney in all things.
 
2012-10-30 09:11:20 AM  
It's interesting to me that the conservative write-ups about Nate only mention his 2008 success in predicting the Obama election, and fail to mention his successful call of the 2010 Republican successes.
 
2012-10-30 09:11:40 AM  
[this_is_SPARTA.jpg]

[this_is_GOP-LAND.jpg]
 
2012-10-30 09:12:20 AM  

simplicimus: Must be "Knock Nate Silver" week.


As opposed to "Fellate Nate Silver" day....which is every day on FARK.
 
2012-10-30 09:12:38 AM  

Tomahawk513: Haters gonna hate.


imageshack.us
 
2012-10-30 09:13:21 AM  
I need this election to be over. As an Ohioan, the EC means my vote is worth comparatively less than someone from say, Montana. But as a swing state voter, the EC means my vote is worth more than just about anyones.

I hated this system before but now I'm freaking enraged by it.
 
2012-10-30 09:13:48 AM  
Part of this is that the GOP is driving this narrative by dumping money into PA, MI etc. States where the president was thought to be safe. To me what's happening is Gov. Romney and his pacs have so much damn money they can afford to force POTUS to play some defense while losing nothing AD but wise in places like Ohio, Virginia and Florida. Thoughts?
 
2012-10-30 09:14:21 AM  
The Right Wing has descended into madness. They are SO petrified of the idea of Obama winning re-election that they are doing everything they can to escape having to accept it. They are exploiting the deaths of Americans at Benghazi to the point of ickyness, they create their own polls and they cry "MEDIA BIAS" when a Conservative does something stupid and is considered newsworthy.

For being "The Party Of Personal Responsibility" they sure don't show much of it.
 
2012-10-30 09:15:43 AM  
I was out to dinner with some colleagues last week, one of whom predicted a Romney landslide, McMahon stomping Murphy, and Warren going down hard to Scott Brown.

I'm definitely going to take his bets.
 
2012-10-30 09:16:07 AM  

Cataholic: simplicimus: Must be "Knock Nate Silver" week.

As opposed to "Fellate Nate Silver" day....which is every day on FARK.


Meh, the more i'm around fark political threads, the more I realize just how fanatical both sides are.
 
2012-10-30 09:16:20 AM  

farker99: National vote != Electoral Vote

Electoral Vote is all that matters and if anyone thinks that the campaigns don't know this . . .

Yet they all talk about the National Vote because that is the thing that is close.

/Sure hope Rmoney wins the popular vote while Obama wins the Electoral Vote
//Just to get even for Bush v. Gore.


Correct. Obama has had a much easier path to 270 from the very start. There was a time after the DNC where that path was even easier, but it has since settled where it will most likely end up after election day. Its amusing to watch people try to devine things out of the polls that aren't really there. As Nate said...........take the average, count to 270.
 
2012-10-30 09:16:32 AM  

Cataholic: simplicimus: Must be "Knock Nate Silver" week.

As opposed to "Fellate Nate Silver" day....which is every day on FARK.


Ooh Nate, I love your hard equations....Give me that addition! Add! Add!

Oh, that average is making me hot. HOT!
 
2012-10-30 09:16:33 AM  
538 currently has Obama with a 72.9% chance of winning.

If Romney wins, that just means he pulled off an upset.

Do we discount betting lines when an underdog wins? No, because you're giving odds, not giving a definitive prediction of what the outcome will be.

For that, you'd have to go to Election Projection (run by a Christian conservative), which just projects the outcome without giving the odds...and has Obama winning, 290-248.

Or you could try the Princeton Election Consortium, which currently has:

As of October 30, 8:00AM EDT:
Obama: 303
Romney: 235
Meta-margin: Obama +2.00%
Probability of Obama re-election: Random Drift 91%, Bayesian Prediction 97%


I'd say a 91-97% probability is pretty close to an outright prediction.

Nate Silver gives you a forecast. Forecasts aren't usually considered to be solid predictions.

Then again...in 2008 I predicted Obama's state wins - yes, even Indiana and NC - and only missed that one district in Nebraska.

This year, I say Romney will take Florida and North Carolina back (and that Nebraska district), but that's it.

I AM A LEGITIMATE PUNDIT.
 
2012-10-30 09:16:33 AM  

NobleHam: and this may shock the coffee-drinking NPR types of Seattle, San Francisco and Madison, Wis

This is where you lost your credibility.


Wait, is coffee-drinking an insult now?

I feel like I've been roasted.
 
ecl [TotalFark] [BareFark]
2012-10-30 09:16:44 AM  
The Trolls are still asleep?
 
2012-10-30 09:16:45 AM  

Tomahawk513: Haters gonna hate.


Horses gotta race.
 
2012-10-30 09:17:15 AM  

zappaisfrank: The Right Wing has descended into madness. They are SO petrified of the idea of Obama winning re-election that they are doing everything they can to escape having to accept it. They are exploiting the deaths of Americans at Benghazi to the point of ickyness, they create their own polls and they cry "MEDIA BIAS" when a Conservative does something stupid and is considered newsworthy.

For being "The Party Of Personal Responsibility" they sure don't show much of it.


And if you think this is bad wait til next week when they have to try plan b: attempting to impeach Obama.
 
2012-10-30 09:17:37 AM  

Summoner101: So Joe supports the reality that lines his pockets and ratings? I'd be surprised, but I'm saving what little I have left in case Romney actually wins


It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his job depends on not understanding it.
-- Upton Sinclair

Of course in Joe's case, he might actually understand but makes a living off of making sure others don't understand.
 
2012-10-30 09:18:34 AM  
On MSNBC's "Morning Joe" today, Joe Scarborough took a more direct shot, effectively calling Silver an ideologue and "a joke."

Not sure whether to go with [spittake.jpg] or [projecter.jpg] here.

Decisions, decisions.
 
ecl [TotalFark] [BareFark]
2012-10-30 09:18:47 AM  
Or maybe they are all one or a couple guys who lost power
 
2012-10-30 09:18:53 AM  

zappaisfrank: The Right Wing has descended into madness. They are SO petrified of the idea of Obama winning re-election that they are doing everything they can to escape having to accept it. They are exploiting the deaths of Americans at Benghazi to the point of ickyness, they create their own polls and they cry "MEDIA BIAS" when a Conservative does something stupid and is considered newsworthy.


...let's just hope no one's going to try to do something more, ahem, active to ensure the votes, when counted, support their party.
 
2012-10-30 09:19:01 AM  
These pundits are completely oblivious to the irony of their claim that if Nate gets is wrong once he loses all credibility.

Pundits. Claiming that. Sure.
 
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