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(UPI)   Gallup headline: Likely 2012 voters look like 2008. Gallup article: 10-point swing in voter identification toward Republicans compared to 2008   (upi.com ) divider line
    More: Asinine, Gallup, rolling average, voter ID  
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4130 clicks; posted to Main » on 29 Oct 2012 at 6:51 PM (3 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-29 03:32:46 PM  
Cool they had a huge 9K sample to which brings down their margin of error to just a single point. So when Conservatives grasp at straws and cite the turn-out for 2010, they are actually grasping at empty air.
 
2012-10-29 03:39:28 PM  
It appears Fark Modmins are no different than the MSM mainstream media in doing anything to make this race seem closer than it is.
 
2012-10-29 03:57:30 PM  

AdolfOliverPanties: It appears Fark Modmins are no different than the MSM mainstream media in doing anything to make this race seem closer than it is.


I re-read the article and now I'm more confused than before. Are they saying that the voters will look like 2008 voters in terms of skin tone but will be much more Republican than Democratic? WTF?
 
2012-10-29 04:02:00 PM  

AdolfOliverPanties: It appears Fark Modmins are no different than the MSM mainstream media in doing anything to make this race seem closer than it is.


wait, WHAT??? it isnt a close race?
Are you stating that without outright voter tampering, that rmoney has no chance?
Meh.

Some of the margins in some of the swing states are close enough that we could be surprised. Not like, say, 2008.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
While not as insanely close as 2000 and 2004, this is still no sure thing.
 
2012-10-29 04:28:03 PM  

mrshowrules: I re-read the article and now I'm more confused than before. Are they saying that the voters will look like 2008 voters in terms of skin tone but will be much more Republican than Democratic? WTF?


They are saying that while Republican identifcation is higher (Due to increased transfers of Fark independent-type voters to the GOP) the likely voter makeup looks the same now as it did in 2008. Likely voters in 2008 were different that in 2010, which will be different than in 2012.
 
2012-10-29 04:38:40 PM  
I seem to recall 2008 resembling a metaphor regarding rodents and their proclivities vis-a-vis sinking ships.
 
2012-10-29 04:45:32 PM  
So, when Obama wins can we spend the next 30+ years agonizing over how Obama Republicans will vote?
 
2012-10-29 05:00:24 PM  
Gallup is still the sole extreme outlier. The outlier is not likely to be right.
 
2012-10-29 05:39:50 PM  

mrshowrules: Cool they had a huge 9K sample to which brings down their margin of error to just a single point. So when Conservatives grasp at straws and cite the turn-out for 2010, they are actually grasping at empty air.


Also...and I don't know why this needs such frequent repeating, but it does:

POPULAR TURNOUT != ELECTORAL VOTES

Obama is currently modeled to win somewhere between 290 and 330 EV. The most likely scenario has Romney taking NC and FL, and Obama taking NV, CO, IA, WI, OH, VA, PA, and NH. That puts it...303-235. Even if Romney does better than expected and takes VA AND OH, it's 272-266. In the popluation vote, this is a close race, but in the electoral college, Romney is somewhere between a 90% & 97% favorite.
 
2012-10-29 05:41:53 PM  

whistleridge: mrshowrules: Cool they had a huge 9K sample to which brings down their margin of error to just a single point. So when Conservatives grasp at straws and cite the turn-out for 2010, they are actually grasping at empty air.

Also...and I don't know why this needs such frequent repeating, but it does:

POPULAR TURNOUT != ELECTORAL VOTES

Obama is currently modeled to win somewhere between 290 and 330 EV. The most likely scenario has Romney taking NC and FL, and Obama taking NV, CO, IA, WI, OH, VA, PA, and NH. That puts it...303-235. Even if Romney does better than expected and takes VA AND OH, it's 272-266. In the popluation vote, this is a close race, but in the electoral college, Romney is somewhere between a 90% & 97% favorite.


Er, Obama. Whoops :P
 
2012-10-29 06:53:27 PM  
Do you wanna know what I think about polls?

I thought not.

*)
 
2012-10-29 06:54:27 PM  
Don't really wanna play attack the messenger, but it really frosts my balls that FARK has partnered with UPI. They are now owned by the same Moonie bastards that own the Wash. Times. A worthless source for information.
 
2012-10-29 06:58:11 PM  

MBP2112: Don't really wanna play attack the messenger, but it really frosts my balls that FARK has partnered with UPI. They are now owned by the same Moonie bastards that own the Wash. Times. A worthless source for information.


Interesting.
 
2012-10-29 06:59:50 PM  

MBP2112: Don't really wanna play attack the messenger, but it really frosts my balls that FARK has partnered with UPI. They are now owned by the same Moonie bastards that own the Wash. Times. A worthless source for information.


Much in the same way we're partnered with Cracked.
 
2012-10-29 07:00:42 PM  
First thing, subby, that's a UPI headline, not a Gallup headline. Second, UPI is owned by the moonies, so they're hardly going to soft-pedal pro-Republican statistics.

Third, Gallup must REALLY be relying on landline polling to get that shift toward self-identified Republicans.
 
2012-10-29 07:01:46 PM  
Republicans tend to over-identify.
 
2012-10-29 07:02:34 PM  

GAT_00: MBP2112: Don't really wanna play attack the messenger, but it really frosts my balls that FARK has partnered with UPI. They are now owned by the same Moonie bastards that own the Wash. Times. A worthless source for information.

Much in the same way we're partnered with Cracked.


So, at least one good source then?
 
2012-10-29 07:02:54 PM  

Indubitably: Do you wanna know what I think about polls?

I thought not.

*)


Y'all be postin' in a poll thread.
 
2012-10-29 07:02:57 PM  
Given that Gallup is under investigation by the DOJ and they continue to publish numbers far from the median, I am fairly certain we can disregard their credibility at this point.
 
2012-10-29 07:04:16 PM  

whistleridge: mrshowrules: Cool they had a huge 9K sample to which brings down their margin of error to just a single point. So when Conservatives grasp at straws and cite the turn-out for 2010, they are actually grasping at empty air.

Also...and I don't know why this needs such frequent repeating, but it does:

POPULAR TURNOUT != ELECTORAL VOTES

Obama is currently modeled to win somewhere between 290 and 330 EV. The most likely scenario has Romney taking NC and FL, and Obama taking NV, CO, IA, WI, OH, VA, PA, and NH. That puts it...303-235. Even if Romney does better than expected and takes VA AND OH, it's 272-266. In the popluation vote, this is a close race, but in the electoral college, Romney is somewhere between a 90% & 97% favorite.


Er, Romney's the underdog in the Princeton and 538 forecasts. Not the favorite. Otherwise, spot on.
 
2012-10-29 07:04:31 PM  
Polls that had Obama winning were oversampling Democrats. Some ridiculously so.

Gallup and Rasmussen are now showing a swing back to reality, i.e., they're set in a world where 2010 actually happened. Remember that?

charts.realclearpolitics.com

Now ask yourself: Is Obama 5% less popular with voters than he was in 2008?

If the answer is yes (and it is), Romney wins.
 
2012-10-29 07:04:39 PM  

MBP2112: Don't really wanna play attack the messenger, but it really frosts my balls that FARK has partnered with UPI. They are now owned by the same Moonie bastards that own the Wash. Times. A worthless source for information.


Well, if that's true, I'm moving to Canada.
 
2012-10-29 07:04:45 PM  

jso2897: Indubitably: Do you wanna know what I think about polls?

I thought not.

*)

Y'all be postin' in a poll thread.


How many of me do you think there are, sir?
 
2012-10-29 07:05:38 PM  

Bazzlex001: Given that Gallup is under investigation by the DOJ and they continue to publish numbers far from the median, I am fairly certain we can disregard their credibility at this point.


To be fair, it should be pointed out that what they are under investigation for has nothing to do with the veracity of their polling.
 
2012-10-29 07:05:44 PM  
So are the right wingers going to call this "skewed" because it shows more Republicans then last presidential election? Or because it shows positive for them they no longer care about the "skewed' BS?
 
2012-10-29 07:06:42 PM  
I'm a voter and I'm registered as a Republican.

The only Republican I voted for this time around was my county sheriff. Plenty of voters, especially younger ones, don't stick with party lines. I'm going to keep myself registered as a Republican simply to caucus for sane candidates and to downvote the social conservative platform issues.
 
2012-10-29 07:06:46 PM  

Bazzlex001: Given that Gallup is under investigation by the DOJ and they continue to publish numbers far from the median, I am fairly certain we can disregard their credibility at this point.


Nate Silver says they're not cooking their numbers, but their methodology produces results that have a consistent error in favor of Republican candidates. So they're worth using in a poll aggregate, as long as you adjust for that consistent error.
 
2012-10-29 07:06:51 PM  
Link

I wouldn't get too cocky there Farkers, the tide has turned.

I don't know who will be more dissapointed election night, you dissilusioned Farkers about how your savior has fallen or me knowing that Romney will do no better .

It makes me question my faith in America these 2 were the best we had to offer.
 
2012-10-29 07:08:18 PM  

mbillips: First thing, subby, that's a UPI headline, not a Gallup headline. Second, UPI is owned by the moonies, so they're hardly going to soft-pedal pro-Republican statistics.

Third, Gallup must REALLY be relying on landline polling to get that shift toward self-identified Republicans.


Agreed about UPI showing this, but it is a Gallup headline.
 
2012-10-29 07:08:22 PM  

Corvus: So are the right wingers going to call this "skewed" because it shows more Republicans then last presidential election? Or because it shows positive for them they no longer care about the "skewed' BS?


Closer we get to election day, the less skew there is because push pollsters have to try to salvage reputations.

That's why Romney looks to be winning lately.

Anyway, don't worry democrats. Obama's walking away with this one. If you're busy on November 7th and can't make it to the polls, no problem. He'll obviously win anyway.
 
2012-10-29 07:08:50 PM  
The election is big business for the media. They'll cherry-pick data to get that "close race" narrative, especially because this gets the campaign money flowing into their coffers. And if even cherry-picked data predicts a landslide, they'll just make shiat up. Everyone talks about how campaign money corrupts politicians, but has anyone spent ten seconds wondering where most of that money winds up? It's not like the media is gonna willingly point the finger at themselves.

Anyone who thinks this has anything to do with democracy needs to wake the fark up. Our country isn't falling apart, but journalistic integrity certainly has.
 
2012-10-29 07:09:16 PM  
I don't know, the 14 most coultarded of my FB friends "like" Mitt Romney. I've extrapolated that number to the number of dumbasses I see in daily life, you know, dummies who are mystified by credit card readers at the gas station, idiots with their idiot dogs running amok on 40 foot Flexi-Leads, people who seem unsure of what call waiting is, 20 years after it became damn near de rigueur, dumbfarks who panic at 4-way stop signs and god forbid, roundabouts and just your average workaday morons misusing words like "penultimate." Combined with the sheer number of people who make shows like World According to Jim last 200 episodes and I'm pretty sure we'll all be converted to Mormonism by Jello-point.
 
2012-10-29 07:09:22 PM  
After four years only an idiot would claim they're a liberal and/or vote democratic. Fark is just an ARM of ABC, CBS and NBC. Another cadre of liberal idiots.
 
2012-10-29 07:09:26 PM  
Sorry Gallup. But no matter how hard you try to sway the election in Romney's favor, Mitt ISN'T going to win, and the Department of Justice investigation against you for fraud WILL continue.

Just learn to unclench when you drop the soap.
 
2012-10-29 07:10:04 PM  
Odd. This after someone showed me this just an hour ago:

http://www.ukprogressive.co.uk/breaking-retired-nsa-analyst-proves-go p -is-stealing-elections/article20598.html
 
2012-10-29 07:10:30 PM  
Those identifying as Republican hasn't gone up. It's simply that they are no longer trying to pretend to be "Independent" or "Libertarian" while voting straight ticket Republican. I also noticed that their poll heavily weighs towards landline users. That's sad as less and less people are using landlines. More are using cell phones or VOIP like Skype. I have a feeling that the real numbers are no where close to what they are claiming.
 
2012-10-29 07:10:35 PM  

Arcanum: If you're busy on November 7th and can't make it to the polls, no problem. He'll obviously win anyway.


Haha very funny.
 
2012-10-29 07:11:00 PM  

MBP2112: Don't really wanna play attack the messenger, but it really frosts my balls that FARK has partnered with UPI. They are now owned by the same Moonie bastards that own the Wash. Times. A worthless source for information.


If your balls are that easily frosted, they'll drop off altogether before you hit puberty. So relax. And for God's sake, put some pants on.
 
2012-10-29 07:11:56 PM  
Anectdotally (sp?) speaking, I know a good number of people who crossed the aisle to vote for Obama, and are pretty disappointed. Plenty of democrats are as well. That said, most still don't like Romney, but a lot are not voting, or voting for Gary Johnson.

I have to admit, I've been rather disappointed in Obama, but at this juncture he's still the least bad choice. That's about the best I can say for him.
 
2012-10-29 07:12:00 PM  

mbillips: Also...and I don't know why this needs such frequent repeating, but it does:

POPULAR TURNOUT != ELECTORAL VOTES


It's likely that the person who wins the popular vote will win the electoral college as well.

. The most likely scenario has Romney taking NC and FL, and Obama taking NV, CO, IA, WI, OH, VA, PA, and NH.

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
 
2012-10-29 07:12:20 PM  
Fark is showing its left wing bias once again...

/Obama does not have this election in the bag, not by a long shot.
//keep farking that chicken anyway, fark
 
2012-10-29 07:12:59 PM  

deadcrickets: Those identifying as Republican hasn't gone up. It's simply that they are no longer trying to pretend to be "Independent" or "Libertarian" while voting straight ticket Republican. I also noticed that their poll heavily weighs towards landline users. That's sad as less and less people are using landlines. More are using cell phones or VOIP like Skype. I have a feeling that the real numbers are no where close to what they are claiming.


I think it's still against the law to call cell phones.
 
2012-10-29 07:13:16 PM  

LawrencePerson: Polls that had Obama winning were oversampling Democrats. Some ridiculously so.

Gallup and Rasmussen are now showing a swing back to reality, i.e., they're set in a world where 2010 actually happened. Remember that?

[charts.realclearpolitics.com image 255x190]

Now ask yourself: Is Obama 5% less popular with voters than he was in 2008?

If the answer is yes (and it is), Romney wins.


The 2010 with a highly energized Tea Party movement turning out in large numbers in a year when most voters stayed home? That 2010?

Also, RCP currently is calling it 290 for Obama, 248 for Romney in their "no toss ups" map.
 
2012-10-29 07:13:25 PM  
Wow, what is with the recent massive influx of fact-free trolls?
 
2012-10-29 07:13:26 PM  

jso2897: Bazzlex001: Given that Gallup is under investigation by the DOJ and they continue to publish numbers far from the median, I am fairly certain we can disregard their credibility at this point.

To be fair, it should be pointed out that what they are under investigation for has nothing to do with the veracity of their polling.


True. But the coincidence is astounding ;-)
 
2012-10-29 07:14:09 PM  
Given that Silver, and especially Wang (Princeton), are fairly confident of an Obama victory, I know that I *should* feel more comfortable than I do that Obama is going to win.

But the stakes are high, and the polls are close, and I don't trust Republican election runners (see FL 2000), so I'm biting my nails until this damn election is over.

Lessons learned: Generally speaking, our schools do a miserable job teaching economics and statistics.
 
2012-10-29 07:15:01 PM  

LawrencePerson: Polls that had Obama winning were oversampling Democrats. Some ridiculously so.

Gallup and Rasmussen are now showing a swing back to reality, i.e., they're set in a world where 2010 actually happened. Remember that?

Now ask yourself: Is Obama 5% less popular with voters than he was in 2008?

If the answer is yes (and it is), Romney wins.


Your blog sucks.
 
2012-10-29 07:15:08 PM  

legalgus: After four years only an idiot would claim they're a liberal and/or vote democratic. Fark is just an ARM of ABC, CBS and NBC. Another cadre of liberal idiots.


Wait, so is ARM an acronym too? And if so are they part of the grand conspiracy to oppress and victimize conservatives? Anyone here speak republican?
 
2012-10-29 07:15:36 PM  

LawrencePerson: Polls that had Obama winning were oversampling Democrats. Some ridiculously so.

Gallup and Rasmussen are now showing a swing back to reality, i.e., they're set in a world where 2010 actually happened. Remember that?

[charts.realclearpolitics.com image 255x190]

Now ask yourself: Is Obama 5% less popular with voters than he was in 2008?

If the answer is yes (and it is), Romney wins.


If Obama had 5% less votes and McCain had 5% more, Obama would have won the popular vote 51%-49% (using wikipedia's final vote tally from 2008).
 
2012-10-29 07:15:41 PM  
This is great news. Gallup is now an ethical company because it supports the Democrats.
 
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