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(Politico)   Debate bounce? Two weeks ago, Obama and Romney were tied in Ohio. Today, Obama is up by 4 points   (politico.com) divider line 36
    More: Interesting, Mitt Romney, obama, Ohio, PPP, young voters  
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1389 clicks; posted to Politics » on 29 Oct 2012 at 11:18 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-29 10:27:25 AM
4 votes:

cman: FFS, folks, cant you assholes just make up your damned mind already?


If you want consistency, go to FiveThirtyEight. His latest blog post is about how the polls are basically back to where they were on June 7th after the convention and debate fluctuations. Media outlets breathlessly reporting every swing state poll as if they're directly related is vacillating nonsense.
2012-10-29 11:31:12 AM
3 votes:

Mugato: Sybarite: Yes, I can clearly see how the many new and specific policy points illuminated in those debates could persuade 300,000 or so Ohioans to shift their preference from one candidate to the other.

Well Romney not being able to locate the country he plans to invade on a map might have swayed some people.


If a Democrat going against an incumbent Republican had made that gaffe at any point in the election, it would have been news for 36 hours at least.

Librul Media my ass
2012-10-29 11:21:06 AM
3 votes:
When the Republican candidate OWNS voting machines, 4% is like a couple thousand code iterations.

Yeah, fraud. I said it. Voter. Fraud. Stolen. Election. SCOTUS. Just keep it close enough to look legit.

Turdblossom isn't gone away. He's just working behind the scenes.
2012-10-29 01:14:09 PM
2 votes:

oren0: Jiro Dreams Of McRibs: When the Republican candidate OWNS voting machines, 4% is like a couple thousand code iterations.

Yeah, fraud. I said it. Voter. Fraud. Stolen. Election. SCOTUS. Just keep it close enough to look legit.

Turdblossom isn't gone away. He's just working behind the scenes.

Snopes.com, how does it work?


It is true that H.I.G. Capital's co-founder, Anthony Tamer, and several of H.I.G.'s managing directors once worked at Bain & Company (whose CEO was Mitt Romney); that Anthony Tamer and his wife are donors to the Romney campaign; and that H.I.G. Capital is the sixth-largest financial contributor to Romney fundraising committees; and it is true that Tagg Romney's firm, Solamere, has investments in other H.I.G. funds that are run by partners who are former Romney colleagues and current Romney fundraisers, and those partners also manage the fund invested in Hart Intercivic. That close a connection between the Romney family, Romney campaign contributors, and a provider of voting systems may raise some eyebrows, but it doesn't establish any direct ownership link between Tagg Romney and a provider of voting systems.

Thanks for clearing that up.
2012-10-29 12:45:17 PM
2 votes:

skykid: Ohio is definitely close,


True.

too close to call.

Not true.

Obama is clearly leading there. Not by a lot, but read my info dump-17 polls, 12 showing Obama ahead, 5 ties, zero showing Romney ahead. That's a lot of polls. Smosh those polls together and you get a survey size of something like 8,000 people or more. I can say, with nearly 100% accuracy, that Obama is leading right now in Ohio.
2012-10-29 12:30:48 PM
2 votes:

qorkfiend: DamnYankees: WombatControl: Karl Rove was arguing that the Democrats are cannibalizing their Election Day votes while GOP early voters are getting new voters turned out.

Oh, he argues that? Good for him. I'm glad he has the ability to say things.

Do "Election Day votes" count for more than votes by early voters? No? Then who the hell cares when the vote was cast?


Technically no, but looking at who is voting early, I am sure Karl wants the faithful to believe that Early Voting is 3/5 a vote.
2012-10-29 12:12:06 PM
2 votes:
What I found interesting was this graph by Nate:

graphics8.nytimes.com

Basically, if you are leading in a state in the poll of polls by more than 1.5 points, you will win the state. Only ONCE in the last thirty years has someone lost a state when winning it in the polls by more than 1.5.
2012-10-29 12:02:53 PM
2 votes:

WombatControl: Oh, and the PPP poll is a weekend sample conducted the 26th-28th. Polls conducted over a weekend traditionally undercount Republican voters (who are more likely to be at church than responding to pollsters).


So weekday polls are more accurate because Republican voters.....are at home to answer the phone?
2012-10-29 11:26:29 AM
2 votes:
Wanna see some epic teeth gnashing? Go into ANY Yahoo news story regarding Obama. ANY. The comments will be full of teabaggers in a massive circle-jerk of derp. If (or more likely, when) Obama wins this, the resulting pants-sh*tting epidemic could actually be a bit scary. People are saying things that would have resulted in a Secret Service visit 10 years ago...
2012-10-29 11:23:17 AM
2 votes:
Today: img0.fark.netDebate bounce? Two weeks ago, Obama and Romney were tied in Ohio. Today, Obama is up by 4 points

Yesterday: img0.fark.netTwo weeks ago, Obama had a 5 point lead in Ohio. Today, Romney has tied it up

Whatever side you're on, you can be a winner!
2012-10-29 10:29:03 AM
2 votes:
Or, it's just a reversion to the norm for this election. If you look at 538's trendlines and remove the convention and debate periods, the lines have barely moved the entire cycle.
2012-10-29 08:10:08 AM
2 votes:

Sybarite: Yes, I can clearly see how the many new and specific policy points illuminated in those debates could persuade 300,000 or so Ohioans to shift their preference from one candidate to the other.


Well Romney not being able to locate the country he plans to invade on a map might have swayed some people.
2012-10-29 02:18:07 PM
1 votes:

tony41454: ghare

tony41454: NOT SO FAST:
Rasmussen released its latest survey of battleground Ohio this morning. The poll finds Romney surging into his first-ever lead in the Buckeye state. He now leads President Obama by 2 points among likely voters, 50-48. Importantly, Romney's support has crossed the critical 50% threshold. It is generally difficult for an incumbent to climb back above 50% once they have relinquished it.
Romney's lead in Ohio is within the margin of error, so the context remains extremely close. With just over a week to go, both campaigns will contest the state aggressively. But, it seems the momentum may be moving towards Romney.

Not what the polls show, but hey, whatever.

And just what do you think Rasmussen puts out, candy? DERP.


yes
2012-10-29 12:42:51 PM
1 votes:

coeyagi: The conundrum is obvious. Do they continue to paint the Obama voter as lazy even though they're going out to vote early in droves? Or do they just assume that's because Obama WANTED them to be unemployed so they could vote early. The former is a failing proposition and the latter is too conspiratorial.


The cognitive dissonance will be epic
2012-10-29 12:42:47 PM
1 votes:

WombatControl: In short, if Rove is correct


I think I see your problem.
2012-10-29 12:33:51 PM
1 votes:
WombatControl:
Karl Rove was arguing that the Democrats are cannibalizing their Election Day votes while GOP early voters are getting new voters turned out. That could well be the case - and if so, that's not a positive sign for Chicago.

The Democrats always have a healthy lead in early voting - so that's not new or noteworthy. What does matter is the relative share of votes - and if Romney is closing the 2008 gap and doing better with independents than McCain did (by far!), it's hard to see how Obama can actually win without substantially improving his base turnout from 2008. And 2008 was probably a high-water mark for D turnout.

Ohio is definitely close, too close to call.

www.welovetheiraqiinformationminister.com
2012-10-29 12:27:30 PM
1 votes:

WombatControl: Karl Rove was arguing that the Democrats are cannibalizing their Election Day votes while GOP early voters are getting new voters turned out.


Oh, he argues that? Good for him. I'm glad he has the ability to say things.
2012-10-29 12:25:42 PM
1 votes:
RE: Polling

538 still has the Indiana Senate race going to Mourdock. Is this because his polling data in Indiana hasn't been updated or the fine folk in Indiana appreciate Mourdock's more nuanced views on rape?
2012-10-29 12:17:12 PM
1 votes:

mrshowrules: WombatControl: PPP's last Ohio poll is a joke - their whole last round of swing-state polls are a joke, in fact.

That Ohio poll has a D+8 advantage - when the wave election of 2008 saw only a D+5 advantage. (2010 was R+1 in Ohio.)

So yes, Obama would be comfortably ahead in an alternate universe where Ohio had the demographics of a reliably Democratic state. But that's not the Ohio that exists in the real world where the most likely turnout is something like D+2 or D+3 (and that's being favorable to the Democratic side and assuming that Obama's GOTV efforts do well). In that case, something like the 49-49 split from the newspaper poll is much more likely.

Rasmussen shows Romney up 2 - which if you buy the house effect argument, would also support the race being tied.

"Nearly one-in-three Ohio voters (32%) have already cast their ballots. Obama leads 62% to 36% among these voters. "

Obama is leading 26 points in early voting and you think showing a DNC with +8 more in sampling is inaccurate?

Think about what you are saying because it would mean that a record number of Republicans are voting for Obama. What don't use just concede that Obama takes Ohio. The writing is on the wall.


The conundrum is obvious. Do they continue to paint the Obama voter as lazy even though they're going out to vote early in droves? Or do they just assume that's because Obama WANTED them to be unemployed so they could vote early. The former is a failing proposition and the latter is too conspiratorial.
2012-10-29 12:14:04 PM
1 votes:

WombatControl: PPP's last Ohio poll is a joke - their whole last round of swing-state polls are a joke, in fact.

That Ohio poll has a D+8 advantage - when the wave election of 2008 saw only a D+5 advantage. (2010 was R+1 in Ohio.)

So yes, Obama would be comfortably ahead in an alternate universe where Ohio had the demographics of a reliably Democratic state. But that's not the Ohio that exists in the real world where the most likely turnout is something like D+2 or D+3 (and that's being favorable to the Democratic side and assuming that Obama's GOTV efforts do well). In that case, something like the 49-49 split from the newspaper poll is much more likely.

Rasmussen shows Romney up 2 - which if you buy the house effect argument, would also support the race being tied.


"Nearly one-in-three Ohio voters (32%) have already cast their ballots. Obama leads 62% to 36% among these voters. "

Obama is leading 26 points in early voting and you think showing a DNC with +8 more in sampling is inaccurate?

Think about what you are saying because it would mean that a record number of Republicans are voting for Obama. What don't use just concede that Obama takes Ohio. The writing is on the wall.
2012-10-29 12:06:23 PM
1 votes:

NateGrey: WombatControl: Oh, and the PPP poll is a weekend sample conducted the 26th-28th. Polls conducted over a weekend traditionally undercount Republican voters (who are more likely to be at church than responding to pollsters).

So weekday polls are more accurate because Republican voters.....are at home to answer the phone?


Polls are also more accurate when they don't include cell phones, because that is the tried and true model we've used for 50 years now.

/This is what the tea party actually believes.
2012-10-29 11:37:24 AM
1 votes:

coeyagi: Hyperbolic vitriol? Um, did Obama start a war under false pretenses? Did he single-handedly take our foreign policy and flush it down the crapper?


As far as objective reality goes, it's easy to make a case that Bush performed a lot worse as president than Obama has in their first terms. But mainstream voters never bought into attempts to demonize Bush for his mistakes, and voting "not Bush" wasn't sufficient to get Kerry elected. Just as voting "not Obama" isn't going to be enough to get Romney into office.
2012-10-29 11:37:13 AM
1 votes:

tenpoundsofcheese: Jiro Dreams Of McRibs: When the Republican candidate OWNS voting machines, 4% is like a couple thousand code iterations

what is a "code iteration"?


Well, see, there's this thing called Google...

(I'll give you a cookie today. At least, for once, you admitted that you're ignorant on a subject)
2012-10-29 11:35:52 AM
1 votes:

Rapmaster2000: static5.businessinsider.com[static5.businessinsider.com image 400x300]

Unskewed Pollster is in the bushes watching you masturbate.


This is what I'm talking about. This fat piece of excrement can get away with his BS because people don't understand basic probability and statistical theories.

fark him and the people that believe polls.
2012-10-29 11:34:35 AM
1 votes:

Girl From The North Country: Well Ohio is New York's path to the sea, so you can see why they're in the tank for Obama.


I heard an Ohio bank provided 10% of the funding for "The Innocence of Muslims" video that was used as a red herring for the Benghazi attack, so I can understand why they're in the tank for Obama.
2012-10-29 11:31:14 AM
1 votes:

lemurs: The whole election is turning into a Bush-Kerry repeat, in that voters are willing to stick with a known incumbent over a poorly-differentiated challenger in spite of the opposition party's hyperbolic vitriol. So the numbers have remained remarkably stable, and are likely to stay that way as storm coverage eats up the news coverage almost until election day.


Hyperbolic vitriol? Um, did Obama start a war under false pretenses? Did he single-handedly take our foreign policy and flush it down the crapper?
2012-10-29 11:31:14 AM
1 votes:

SacriliciousBeerSwiller: Wanna see some epic teeth gnashing? Go into ANY Yahoo news story regarding Obama. ANY. The comments will be full of teabaggers in a massive circle-jerk of derp. If (or more likely, when) Obama wins this, the resulting pants-sh*tting epidemic could actually be a bit scary. People are saying things that would have resulted in a Secret Service visit 10 years ago...


Trust me, the Secret Service examines all threats, and is probably working over time this election season.

In fact, I think they are hiring.
2012-10-29 11:31:11 AM
1 votes:
The plight of the internet. We live in information age. The problem is the masses don't know how to interpret that information. We need to teach statistics and probability; at the least most still will have a grasp of the basic Gaussian distribution.

We would see less headlines like "statistical dead heat" as many will be able to call out the bullshiat stains of the mass media. Until then people will believe polls and "skew" them to whomever satisfies their political discourse.

Just stop it and grasp the basic elementary concept of statistics and probability.
2012-10-29 11:31:02 AM
1 votes:

Jiro Dreams Of McRibs: When the Republican candidate OWNS voting machines, 4% is like a couple thousand code iterations.

Yeah, fraud. I said it. Voter. Fraud. Stolen. Election. SCOTUS. Just keep it close enough to look legit.

Turdblossom isn't gone away. He's just working behind the scenes.


Well, that's part of why the GOP puppetmasters are trying so hard to pump out the claim that Romney is just oh-so-close in Ohio. Because if everyone knows Obama has it wrapped up going into the election, it'll make a greater number of people more likely to be suspicious. They already had a close call with the unprecedented exit polling disparity (against reported results) in the 2000 and 2004 elections.
2012-10-29 11:26:25 AM
1 votes:
That's OK, Romney will win the next debate.
2012-10-29 11:22:37 AM
1 votes:

Jiro Dreams Of McRibs: When the Republican candidate OWNS voting machines, 4% is like a couple thousand code iterations.

Yeah, fraud. I said it. Voter. Fraud. Stolen. Election. SCOTUS. Just keep it close enough to look legit.

Turdblossom isn't gone away. He's just working behind the scenes.


I'm sure there is some shady counter-coup shiat going on at the Federal level. No way in hell do I see the Administration just sitting back and letting that happen.
2012-10-29 11:20:35 AM
1 votes:
Oh goodie, let's argue some more about polls.
2012-10-29 10:05:07 AM
1 votes:

cman: FFS, folks, cant you assholes just make up your damned mind already?


Logic would dictate that both polls were probably off within their respective margin of errors and that Obama was probably up 2 points the whole time.
2012-10-29 09:30:38 AM
1 votes:
Tomorrow's headline: Rasmussan poll give Romney 5 point lead in Ohio. Suck my balls libs.
2012-10-29 08:08:25 AM
1 votes:

cman: FFS, folks, cant you assholes just make up your damned mind already?


You're asking for sensibility of people who choose to live in Ohio?
2012-10-29 07:43:03 AM
1 votes:
FFS, folks, cant you assholes just make up your damned mind already?
 
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