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(Politico)   Debate bounce? Two weeks ago, Obama and Romney were tied in Ohio. Today, Obama is up by 4 points   (politico.com) divider line 174
    More: Interesting, Mitt Romney, obama, Ohio, PPP, young voters  
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1398 clicks; posted to Politics » on 29 Oct 2012 at 11:18 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-29 02:20:07 PM

coeyagi: yes


There you go again. Data doesn't suit your cognition, it must be faulty.
 
2012-10-29 02:23:15 PM

NateGrey: Drakin030: So if you have a poll that has a D sample of let's say +8 but the poll is tied, is that not reason to be concerned?

Basically someone saying "Yeah I'm a Democrat but I'm voting Romney"

What? No, the sample is not 50/50 dems/reps.

Just go to unskewedpolls.com. Its simpler.


I'm not one for satire sites, but I would like to know more about how this sampling thing works.
 
2012-10-29 02:25:40 PM

Drakin030: I'm not one for satire sites, but I would like to know more about how this sampling thing works.


Im not sure what your question is - the sample is suppose to be random. And results of party ID are what they are.
 
2012-10-29 02:28:00 PM

DamnYankees: Drakin030: I'm not one for satire sites, but I would like to know more about how this sampling thing works.

Im not sure what your question is - the sample is suppose to be random. And results of party ID are what they are.


So what I understand is this...

If you ask 10 people "Hey who would you vote for...."

and lets say 6 out of 10 say they are Democrat. Does that mean it's a Sample of +1 Dem?
 
2012-10-29 02:29:20 PM

Drakin030: and lets say 6 out of 10 say they are Democrat. Does that mean it's a Sample of +1 Dem?


No, that would be +2. The shorthand of the plus sign just means Dems minus GOP. So if your sample is 6 Dem and 4 GOP, that's D+2.
 
2012-10-29 02:29:52 PM

notShryke: coeyagi: yes

There you go again. Data doesn't suit your cognition, it must be faulty.


That one poll doesn't. Look at the poll of polls, bro, and stop cherry picking.

Or continue. I don't really care. I try not to talk to low information voters stuck in the bubble of the Fox News conglomerate of derp.
 
2012-10-29 02:31:38 PM

DamnYankees: Drakin030: and lets say 6 out of 10 say they are Democrat. Does that mean it's a Sample of +1 Dem?

No, that would be +2. The shorthand of the plus sign just means Dems minus GOP. So if your sample is 6 Dem and 4 GOP, that's D+2.


Ok fair enough, but this is where it gets interesting.

If you have a group of people that's sampled at +8 Democrat, but the pole comes back as a tie for both Romney and Obama, is that not reason to be concerned that even with the majority being "Democrats" the race still shows up as a tie?
 
2012-10-29 02:33:48 PM

Drakin030: If you have a group of people that's sampled at +8 Democrat, but the pole comes back as a tie for both Romney and Obama, is that not reason to be concerned that even with the majority being "Democrats" the race still shows up as a tie?


No. You need to remember that the electorate is almost always anywhere between D+5 and D+10. For the past few generations, if not longer, there have always been more Democrats than Republicans. If all Democrats all voted for the Dem candidate and all GOP always voted for the GOP candidate, the Dem would always win. So finding a tight race at D+8 is not at all surprising. It's also worth nothing that independents tend to favor the GOP - lots of people disaffected with the GOP unregistered but still remained conservative.
 
2012-10-29 02:36:43 PM

DamnYankees: What I found interesting was this graph by Nate:

[graphics8.nytimes.com image 362x778]

Basically, if you are leading in a state in the poll of polls by more than 1.5 points, you will win the state. Only ONCE in the last thirty years has someone lost a state when winning it in the polls by more than 1.5.


Unless you're Texas, evidently.

/How was Clinton up in the polls?
 
2012-10-29 02:36:45 PM

DamnYankees: Drakin030: If you have a group of people that's sampled at +8 Democrat, but the pole comes back as a tie for both Romney and Obama, is that not reason to be concerned that even with the majority being "Democrats" the race still shows up as a tie?

No. You need to remember that the electorate is almost always anywhere between D+5 and D+10. For the past few generations, if not longer, there have always been more Democrats than Republicans. If all Democrats all voted for the Dem candidate and all GOP always voted for the GOP candidate, the Dem would always win. So finding a tight race at D+8 is not at all surprising. It's also worth nothing that independents tend to favor the GOP - lots of people disaffected with the GOP unregistered but still remained conservative.


Ahh I see.

Okay that helps. I hear the right biatching about sampling but rather than write them off as the crazy loons that they are, I figured it would be fair to atleast look into their claim.
 
2012-10-29 02:45:42 PM

Tyrone Slothrop: DamnYankees: What I found interesting was this graph by Nate:

[graphics8.nytimes.com image 362x778]

Basically, if you are leading in a state in the poll of polls by more than 1.5 points, you will win the state. Only ONCE in the last thirty years has someone lost a state when winning it in the polls by more than 1.5.

Unless you're Texas, evidently.

/How was Clinton up in the polls?


Clinton is (was?) a Southerner.
 
2012-10-29 02:49:02 PM
 
2012-10-29 03:02:51 PM

NateGrey: The final Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state before Election Day shows John McCain and Barack Obama each attracting 49% of the vote.

Ohio Actual Results:

Obama: 51.2%
McCain: 47.2

Kind of accurate is still accurate right?


Its actually pretty close and well within the margin of error. Oh, but FAUX NEWS!11!1!!1!
 
2012-10-29 03:16:22 PM

machoprogrammer: NateGrey: The final Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state before Election Day shows John McCain and Barack Obama each attracting 49% of the vote.

Ohio Actual Results:

Obama: 51.2%
McCain: 47.2

Kind of accurate is still accurate right?

Its actually pretty close and well within the margin of error. Oh, but FAUX NEWS!11!1!!1!


4 points is not within a 3 point margin or error.
 
2012-10-29 03:23:45 PM

mrshowrules: machoprogrammer: NateGrey: The final Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state before Election Day shows John McCain and Barack Obama each attracting 49% of the vote.

Ohio Actual Results:

Obama: 51.2%
McCain: 47.2

Kind of accurate is still accurate right?

Its actually pretty close and well within the margin of error. Oh, but FAUX NEWS!11!1!!1!

4 points is not within a 3 point margin or error.


Actually, it would be 2 points. The poll said "49%, with a margin of error of 3", since it turned out to be 47/51, that is a change of 2 points. Margin of error is typically radius, not the actual difference... Otherwise it would be difficult to calculate when it didn't originally predict a tie.
 
2012-10-29 03:27:05 PM

machoprogrammer: NateGrey: The final Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state before Election Day shows John McCain and Barack Obama each attracting 49% of the vote.

Ohio Actual Results:

Obama: 51.2%
McCain: 47.2

Kind of accurate is still accurate right?

Its actually pretty close and well within the margin of error. Oh, but FAUX NEWS!11!1!!1!


Maybe you missed all the Fark Cons quoting the Ras Romney +2 this morning.

I dont think they were taking MOE into account there.
 
2012-10-29 04:44:01 PM

machoprogrammer: NateGrey: The final Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state before Election Day shows John McCain and Barack Obama each attracting 49% of the vote.

Ohio Actual Results:

Obama: 51.2%
McCain: 47.2

Kind of accurate is still accurate right?

Its actually pretty close and well within the margin of error. Oh, but FAUX NEWS!11!1!!1!


i580.photobucket.com
 
2012-10-29 05:07:34 PM

cman: FFS, folks, cant you assholes just make up your damned mind already?


If Ohio was full of people who could make their minds up, their votes wouldn't matter anymore.

Like most of the rest of the nation.
 
2012-10-29 05:55:02 PM

DamnYankees: What I found interesting was this graph by Nate:

[graphics8.nytimes.com image 362x778]

Basically, if you are leading in a state in the poll of polls by more than 1.5 points, you will win the state. Only ONCE in the last thirty years has someone lost a state when winning it in the polls by more than 1.5.


Dukakis won in 1988? Huh.
 
MFL
2012-10-29 06:54:38 PM
1. PPP always slants left.
2. Rasmussen has Romney up by 2 in Ohio today and has Romney over 50% nationally (along with Gallup, ABC/WP to name a few). Candidates polling consistently over 50% don't traditionally lose.
3. Newspapers that endorsed Obama 4 years ago are dropping like flies...writing meet wall.
4. One candidate is in attack mode searching for a soundbyte to catch fire, while the other one is giving speeches about big issues and reaching accross party lines. One is ahead, one is chasing that person.
5. Poll after poll after poll show Romney is winning independent voters by at least twice the margin Obama beat McCain...voter enthusiasm is obviously on the side of the GOP this year....this means democrats need to not only match their record turnout in 2008, but surpass it to the point it will make up for jacked GOP and the independent gap......good luck.

Hype is the one constant of Obama's presidency. Do you really think this fabled "ground game" is any different?

Obama will lose and it won't be as close as you think.
 
2012-10-29 06:55:04 PM

mrshowrules: McCain lost Ohio by 200,000 votes. You say Romney is up by 30,000 votes against McCain with one third already cast. So what, only up 30,000 votes. He's lucky if he gets another 60,000. He well still be shy about a 100,000 votes at this rate. Pretty farking grim for him. Plus, you are trying to hard.


That's not the way it works. Romney is up 30,000 votes compared to 2008. Obama is down 220,000 - the net difference is 250,000 at this point. Which means there's a rough parity compared to 2008 - and if Romney does as well or better than McCain did with Election Day voters, he's highly likely to win. (The actual margin of victory for Obama in 2008 was about 260,000 votes in Ohio.)

DamnYankees: Drakin030: If you have a group of people that's sampled at +8 Democrat, but the pole comes back as a tie for both Romney and Obama, is that not reason to be concerned that even with the majority being "Democrats" the race still shows up as a tie?

No. You need to remember that the electorate is almost always anywhere between D+5 and D+10. For the past few generations, if not longer, there have always been more Democrats than Republicans. If all Democrats all voted for the Dem candidate and all GOP always voted for the GOP candidate, the Dem would always win. So finding a tight race at D+8 is not at all surprising. It's also worth nothing that independents tend to favor the GOP - lots of people disaffected with the GOP unregistered but still remained conservative.


The electorate is typically more like D+2 to D+3 - in 2008, which was a Democratic wave election, the electorate was only D+7. You're correct that there are more Democrats than Republicans, which is why the independent vote is crucial to winning elections.
 
2012-10-29 08:12:41 PM

tenpoundsofcheese: Democrat pollster is an outlier to all the other polls.

what a surprise!!!!


God, you're dumb.
 
2012-10-29 08:39:31 PM
Wow the right is terrified judging by the level of trolling in this thread. Keep spinning away until election day, guys. youre gonna lose.
 
2012-10-30 01:26:22 PM

SacriliciousBeerSwiller: machoprogrammer: NateGrey: The final Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state before Election Day shows John McCain and Barack Obama each attracting 49% of the vote.

Ohio Actual Results:

Obama: 51.2%
McCain: 47.2

Kind of accurate is still accurate right?

Its actually pretty close and well within the margin of error. Oh, but FAUX NEWS!11!1!!1!

[i580.photobucket.com image 197x151]


Do you know how margin of error works? Margin of error was 3%. It was off by 1.8 and 2.2%, or 2% on average. Therefore, it was within margin of error.
 
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