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(Politico)   Debate bounce? Two weeks ago, Obama and Romney were tied in Ohio. Today, Obama is up by 4 points   (politico.com) divider line 174
    More: Interesting, Mitt Romney, obama, Ohio, PPP, young voters  
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1402 clicks; posted to Politics » on 29 Oct 2012 at 11:18 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-29 12:17:12 PM  

mrshowrules: WombatControl: PPP's last Ohio poll is a joke - their whole last round of swing-state polls are a joke, in fact.

That Ohio poll has a D+8 advantage - when the wave election of 2008 saw only a D+5 advantage. (2010 was R+1 in Ohio.)

So yes, Obama would be comfortably ahead in an alternate universe where Ohio had the demographics of a reliably Democratic state. But that's not the Ohio that exists in the real world where the most likely turnout is something like D+2 or D+3 (and that's being favorable to the Democratic side and assuming that Obama's GOTV efforts do well). In that case, something like the 49-49 split from the newspaper poll is much more likely.

Rasmussen shows Romney up 2 - which if you buy the house effect argument, would also support the race being tied.

"Nearly one-in-three Ohio voters (32%) have already cast their ballots. Obama leads 62% to 36% among these voters. "

Obama is leading 26 points in early voting and you think showing a DNC with +8 more in sampling is inaccurate?

Think about what you are saying because it would mean that a record number of Republicans are voting for Obama. What don't use just concede that Obama takes Ohio. The writing is on the wall.


The conundrum is obvious. Do they continue to paint the Obama voter as lazy even though they're going out to vote early in droves? Or do they just assume that's because Obama WANTED them to be unemployed so they could vote early. The former is a failing proposition and the latter is too conspiratorial.
 
2012-10-29 12:18:07 PM  

SacriliciousBeerSwiller: Wanna see some epic teeth gnashing? Go into ANY Yahoo news story regarding Obama. ANY. The comments will be full of teabaggers in a massive circle-jerk of derp. If (or more likely, when) Obama wins this, the resulting pants-sh*tting epidemic could actually be a bit scary. People are saying things that would have resulted in a Secret Service visit 10 years ago...


Most of the stories are from AP, but the butthurt about Yahoo being liberal!!eleventy!! are hilarious
 
2012-10-29 12:21:29 PM  
Yes, cherry picking a new poll that's higher than average is totally different from cherry picking one lower than average.

Or was this supposed to be a "That's the joke" headline?
 
2012-10-29 12:22:41 PM  

coeyagi: You are being requested to apologize on the floor. Thank you.


For what? As others have pointed out, contradictory polls are out, even today. Rasmussen R +2.
 
2012-10-29 12:24:09 PM  

LazarusLong42: Or was this supposed to be a "That's the joke" headline?


There you go.
 
2012-10-29 12:25:42 PM  
RE: Polling

538 still has the Indiana Senate race going to Mourdock. Is this because his polling data in Indiana hasn't been updated or the fine folk in Indiana appreciate Mourdock's more nuanced views on rape?
 
2012-10-29 12:26:21 PM  

mrshowrules: WombatControl: PPP's last Ohio poll is a joke - their whole last round of swing-state polls are a joke, in fact.

That Ohio poll has a D+8 advantage - when the wave election of 2008 saw only a D+5 advantage. (2010 was R+1 in Ohio.)

So yes, Obama would be comfortably ahead in an alternate universe where Ohio had the demographics of a reliably Democratic state. But that's not the Ohio that exists in the real world where the most likely turnout is something like D+2 or D+3 (and that's being favorable to the Democratic side and assuming that Obama's GOTV efforts do well). In that case, something like the 49-49 split from the newspaper poll is much more likely.

Rasmussen shows Romney up 2 - which if you buy the house effect argument, would also support the race being tied.

"Nearly one-in-three Ohio voters (32%) have already cast their ballots. Obama leads 62% to 36% among these voters. "

Obama is leading 26 points in early voting and you think showing a DNC with +8 more in sampling is inaccurate?

Think about what you are saying because it would mean that a record number of Republicans are voting for Obama. What don't use just concede that Obama takes Ohio. The writing is on the wall.


Actually, early voting figures are not looking good for Obama. In 2008, Obama won Ohio by roughly 260,000 votes.

This year, the number of early votes cast for Obama is 220,000 less than this point four years ago. Concordantly, Romney is outperforming McCain by about 30,000 early votes.

Karl Rove was arguing that the Democrats are cannibalizing their Election Day votes while GOP early voters are getting new voters turned out. That could well be the case - and if so, that's not a positive sign for Chicago.

The Democrats always have a healthy lead in early voting - so that's not new or noteworthy. What does matter is the relative share of votes - and if Romney is closing the 2008 gap and doing better with independents than McCain did (by far!), it's hard to see how Obama can actually win without substantially improving his base turnout from 2008. And 2008 was probably a high-water mark for D turnout.

Ohio is definitely close, too close to call.
 
2012-10-29 12:26:50 PM  

Muta: RE: Polling

538 still has the Indiana Senate race going to Mourdock. Is this because his polling data in Indiana hasn't been updated or the fine folk in Indiana appreciate Mourdock's more nuanced views on rape?


According to 538, there hasn't been a new poll there since 10/11.
 
2012-10-29 12:27:30 PM  

WombatControl: Karl Rove was arguing that the Democrats are cannibalizing their Election Day votes while GOP early voters are getting new voters turned out.


Oh, he argues that? Good for him. I'm glad he has the ability to say things.
 
2012-10-29 12:29:45 PM  

DamnYankees: WombatControl: Karl Rove was arguing that the Democrats are cannibalizing their Election Day votes while GOP early voters are getting new voters turned out.

Oh, he argues that? Good for him. I'm glad he has the ability to say things.


Do "Election Day votes" count for more than votes by early voters? No? Then who the hell cares when the vote was cast?
 
2012-10-29 12:30:48 PM  

qorkfiend: DamnYankees: WombatControl: Karl Rove was arguing that the Democrats are cannibalizing their Election Day votes while GOP early voters are getting new voters turned out.

Oh, he argues that? Good for him. I'm glad he has the ability to say things.

Do "Election Day votes" count for more than votes by early voters? No? Then who the hell cares when the vote was cast?


Technically no, but looking at who is voting early, I am sure Karl wants the faithful to believe that Early Voting is 3/5 a vote.
 
2012-10-29 12:33:51 PM  
WombatControl:
Karl Rove was arguing that the Democrats are cannibalizing their Election Day votes while GOP early voters are getting new voters turned out. That could well be the case - and if so, that's not a positive sign for Chicago.

The Democrats always have a healthy lead in early voting - so that's not new or noteworthy. What does matter is the relative share of votes - and if Romney is closing the 2008 gap and doing better with independents than McCain did (by far!), it's hard to see how Obama can actually win without substantially improving his base turnout from 2008. And 2008 was probably a high-water mark for D turnout.

Ohio is definitely close, too close to call.

www.welovetheiraqiinformationminister.com
 
2012-10-29 12:41:13 PM  

qorkfiend: DamnYankees: WombatControl: Karl Rove was arguing that the Democrats are cannibalizing their Election Day votes while GOP early voters are getting new voters turned out.

Oh, he argues that? Good for him. I'm glad he has the ability to say things.

Do "Election Day votes" count for more than votes by early voters? No? Then who the hell cares when the vote was cast?


If you're cannibalizing your Election Day votes, it means that you have to have an even bigger advantage in early voting to make up for the relative difference on Election Day. It means that Republicans are getting more early voters plus their turnout on Election Day. On the other side, the Democrats are just getting votes that they otherwise would get on Election Day. In short, if Rove is correct, it's a sign that the Republicans are drawing from a larger pool of voters.
 
2012-10-29 12:42:47 PM  

WombatControl: In short, if Rove is correct


I think I see your problem.
 
2012-10-29 12:42:51 PM  

coeyagi: The conundrum is obvious. Do they continue to paint the Obama voter as lazy even though they're going out to vote early in droves? Or do they just assume that's because Obama WANTED them to be unemployed so they could vote early. The former is a failing proposition and the latter is too conspiratorial.


The cognitive dissonance will be epic
 
2012-10-29 12:43:17 PM  

WombatControl: qorkfiend: DamnYankees: WombatControl: Karl Rove was arguing that the Democrats are cannibalizing their Election Day votes while GOP early voters are getting new voters turned out.

Oh, he argues that? Good for him. I'm glad he has the ability to say things.

Do "Election Day votes" count for more than votes by early voters? No? Then who the hell cares when the vote was cast?

If you're cannibalizing your Election Day votes, it means that you have to have an even bigger advantage in early voting to make up for the relative difference on Election Day. It means that Republicans are getting more early voters plus their turnout on Election Day. On the other side, the Democrats are just getting votes that they otherwise would get on Election Day. In short, if Rove is correct, it's a sign that the Republicans are drawing from a larger pool of voters.


I was lying earlier now you're doing too much.
 
2012-10-29 12:45:17 PM  

skykid: Ohio is definitely close,


True.

too close to call.

Not true.

Obama is clearly leading there. Not by a lot, but read my info dump-17 polls, 12 showing Obama ahead, 5 ties, zero showing Romney ahead. That's a lot of polls. Smosh those polls together and you get a survey size of something like 8,000 people or more. I can say, with nearly 100% accuracy, that Obama is leading right now in Ohio.
 
2012-10-29 12:47:54 PM  
NOT SO FAST:
Rasmussen released its latest survey of battleground Ohio this morning. The poll finds Romney surging into his first-ever lead in the Buckeye state. He now leads President Obama by 2 points among likely voters, 50-48. Importantly, Romney's support has crossed the critical 50% threshold. It is generally difficult for an incumbent to climb back above 50% once they have relinquished it.
Romney's lead in Ohio is within the margin of error, so the context remains extremely close. With just over a week to go, both campaigns will contest the state aggressively. But, it seems the momentum may be moving towards Romney.
 
2012-10-29 12:51:33 PM  
Please, god, just let this election be over.
 
2012-10-29 12:53:54 PM  
For the unskewed:

Link
 
2012-10-29 12:54:18 PM  
i194.photobucket.com
 
2012-10-29 12:54:25 PM  

Muta: RE: Polling

538 still has the Indiana Senate race going to Mourdock. Is this because his polling data in Indiana hasn't been updated or the fine folk in Indiana appreciate Mourdock's more nuanced views on rape?


No polling
 
2012-10-29 12:54:50 PM  
So why are the dems cannibalizing election day voting whereas the reps are getting new voters through early voting?

Seem to me that a vote is a vote and they're both cannibalizing election day votes.
 
2012-10-29 12:56:16 PM  

Muta: RE: Polling

538 still has the Indiana Senate race going to Mourdock. Is this because his polling data in Indiana hasn't been updated or the fine folk in Indiana appreciate Mourdock's more nuanced views on rape?


The majority of Indiana is like my home state of Kentucky, the majority of both is a collective of the willfully ignorant.
 
2012-10-29 12:56:40 PM  

tony41454: NOT SO FAST:
Rasmussen released its latest survey of battleground Ohio this morning. The poll finds Romney surging into his first-ever lead in the Buckeye state. He now leads President Obama by 2 points among likely voters, 50-48. Importantly, Romney's support has crossed the critical 50% threshold. It is generally difficult for an incumbent to climb back above 50% once they have relinquished it.
Romney's lead in Ohio is within the margin of error, so the context remains extremely close. With just over a week to go, both campaigns will contest the state aggressively. But, it seems the momentum may be moving towards Romney.


Not what the polls show, but hey, whatever.
 
2012-10-29 12:59:18 PM  

WombatControl: mrshowrules: WombatControl: PPP's last Ohio poll is a joke - their whole last round of swing-state polls are a joke, in fact.

That Ohio poll has a D+8 advantage - when the wave election of 2008 saw only a D+5 advantage. (2010 was R+1 in Ohio.)

So yes, Obama would be comfortably ahead in an alternate universe where Ohio had the demographics of a reliably Democratic state. But that's not the Ohio that exists in the real world where the most likely turnout is something like D+2 or D+3 (and that's being favorable to the Democratic side and assuming that Obama's GOTV efforts do well). In that case, something like the 49-49 split from the newspaper poll is much more likely.

Rasmussen shows Romney up 2 - which if you buy the house effect argument, would also support the race being tied.

"Nearly one-in-three Ohio voters (32%) have already cast their ballots. Obama leads 62% to 36% among these voters. "

Obama is leading 26 points in early voting and you think showing a DNC with +8 more in sampling is inaccurate?

Think about what you are saying because it would mean that a record number of Republicans are voting for Obama. What don't use just concede that Obama takes Ohio. The writing is on the wall.

Actually, early voting figures are not looking good for Obama. In 2008, Obama won Ohio by roughly 260,000 votes.

This year, the number of early votes cast for Obama is 220,000 less than this point four years ago. Concordantly, Romney is outperforming McCain by about 30,000 early votes.

Karl Rove was arguing that the Democrats are cannibalizing their Election Day votes while GOP early voters are getting new voters turned out. That could well be the case - and if so, that's not a positive sign for Chicago.

The Democrats always have a healthy lead in early voting - so that's not new or noteworthy. What does matter is the relative share of votes - and if Romney is closing the 2008 gap and doing better with independents than McCain did (by far!), it's hard to see how Obama ...


McCain lost Ohio by 200,000 votes. You say Romney is up by 30,000 votes against McCain with one third already cast. So what, only up 30,000 votes. He's lucky if he gets another 60,000. He well still be shy about a 100,000 votes at this rate. Pretty farking grim for him. Plus, you are trying to hard.
 
2012-10-29 01:01:24 PM  
Well this poll is obviously the one we should all pay attention to now.

All other polls before and after this should be summarily dismissed.
 
2012-10-29 01:02:52 PM  

tony41454: NOT SO FAST:
Rasmussen released its latest survey of battleground Ohio this morning. The poll finds Romney surging into his first-ever lead in the Buckeye state. He now leads President Obama by 2 points among likely voters, 50-48. Importantly, Romney's support has crossed the critical 50% threshold. It is generally difficult for an incumbent to climb back above 50% once they have relinquished it.
Romney's lead in Ohio is within the margin of error, so the context remains extremely close. With just over a week to go, both campaigns will contest the state aggressively. But, it seems the momentum may be moving towards Romney.


Yeah slow down you guys, Romney is surging in Ohio.
 
2012-10-29 01:03:16 PM  

Muta: RE: Polling

538 still has the Indiana Senate race going to Mourdock. Is this because his polling data in Indiana hasn't been updated or the fine folk in Indiana appreciate Mourdock's more nuanced views on rape?


I'm from Indiana originally and still have lots of friends there. There was a facebook thread just a couple days ago swimming with people justifying Mourdock's view (although some of them may not actually have realized they were) because they are so die hard for the R team.
 
2012-10-29 01:08:01 PM  

Jiro Dreams Of McRibs: When the Republican candidate OWNS voting machines, 4% is like a couple thousand code iterations.

Yeah, fraud. I said it. Voter. Fraud. Stolen. Election. SCOTUS. Just keep it close enough to look legit.

Turdblossom isn't gone away. He's just working behind the scenes.


Snopes.com, how does it work?
 
2012-10-29 01:14:09 PM  

oren0: Jiro Dreams Of McRibs: When the Republican candidate OWNS voting machines, 4% is like a couple thousand code iterations.

Yeah, fraud. I said it. Voter. Fraud. Stolen. Election. SCOTUS. Just keep it close enough to look legit.

Turdblossom isn't gone away. He's just working behind the scenes.

Snopes.com, how does it work?


It is true that H.I.G. Capital's co-founder, Anthony Tamer, and several of H.I.G.'s managing directors once worked at Bain & Company (whose CEO was Mitt Romney); that Anthony Tamer and his wife are donors to the Romney campaign; and that H.I.G. Capital is the sixth-largest financial contributor to Romney fundraising committees; and it is true that Tagg Romney's firm, Solamere, has investments in other H.I.G. funds that are run by partners who are former Romney colleagues and current Romney fundraisers, and those partners also manage the fund invested in Hart Intercivic. That close a connection between the Romney family, Romney campaign contributors, and a provider of voting systems may raise some eyebrows, but it doesn't establish any direct ownership link between Tagg Romney and a provider of voting systems.

Thanks for clearing that up.
 
2012-10-29 01:20:24 PM  
O winning with D+8 sample. Got it. Might as well poll the NYTimes.
 
2012-10-29 01:21:59 PM  

NateGrey: WombatControl: Oh, and the PPP poll is a weekend sample conducted the 26th-28th. Polls conducted over a weekend traditionally undercount Republican voters (who are more likely to be at church than responding to pollsters).

So weekday polls are more accurate because Republican voters.....are at home to answer the phone?


Hey Wombat, could you clarify your "Republicans arent home on weekends" remark?

I enjoy reading derp, so make it good. Thanks
 
2012-10-29 01:22:40 PM  

Garet Garrett: O winning with D+8 sample. Got it. Might as well poll the NYTimes.


Sounds like that poll needs an unskewing.
 
2012-10-29 01:23:21 PM  

ghare: tony41454: NOT SO FAST:
Rasmussen released its latest survey of battleground Ohio this morning. The poll finds Romney surging into his first-ever lead in the Buckeye state. He now leads President Obama by 2 points among likely voters, 50-48. Importantly, Romney's support has crossed the critical 50% threshold. It is generally difficult for an incumbent to climb back above 50% once they have relinquished it.
Romney's lead in Ohio is within the margin of error, so the context remains extremely close. With just over a week to go, both campaigns will contest the state aggressively. But, it seems the momentum may be moving towards Romney.

Not what the polls show, but hey, whatever.


Add in the early voting splitting 60% to Obama with 30-33% to Romney then the remainder to a third party candidate or not telling, and Romney has a real problem in Ohio(that can only be fixed by cheating).
 
2012-10-29 01:24:25 PM  

NateGrey: NateGrey: WombatControl: Oh, and the PPP poll is a weekend sample conducted the 26th-28th. Polls conducted over a weekend traditionally undercount Republican voters (who are more likely to be at church than responding to pollsters).

So weekday polls are more accurate because Republican voters.....are at home to answer the phone?

Hey Wombat, could you clarify your "Republicans arent home on weekends" remark?

I enjoy reading derp, so make it good. Thanks


They are. They're the 47% who are lazy assholes and don't mind being called lazy assholes by Romney because he's not black.

Or something.
 
2012-10-29 01:26:01 PM  

coeyagi: Girl From The North Country: Well Ohio is New York's path to the sea, so you can see why they're in the tank for Obama.

I heard an Ohio bank provided 10% of the funding for "The Innocence of Muslims" video that was used as a red herring for the Benghazi attack, so I can understand why they're in the tank for Obama.


So, about $10?
 
2012-10-29 01:27:47 PM  

Otherwise Just Fine: coeyagi: Girl From The North Country: Well Ohio is New York's path to the sea, so you can see why they're in the tank for Obama.

I heard an Ohio bank provided 10% of the funding for "The Innocence of Muslims" video that was used as a red herring for the Benghazi attack, so I can understand why they're in the tank for Obama.

So, about $10?


Pretty much.
 
2012-10-29 01:36:16 PM  
Too bad the Democrats can't over sample Democrat voters in the actual election.

D+9 and you guys take this poll seriously?
 
2012-10-29 01:40:15 PM  

Brubold: Too bad the Democrats can't over sample Democrat voters in the actual election.

D+9 and you guys take this poll seriously?


Here's the poll of polls showing party ID as reported in the polls:

dailydish.typepad.com

Given this information, D+9 looks like an exactly right sample.
 
2012-10-29 01:42:02 PM  

Brubold: Too bad the Democrats can't over sample Democrat voters in the actual election.

D+9 and you guys take this poll seriously?


What are your polls telling you?
 
2012-10-29 01:44:12 PM  

meat0918: I_Am_Weasel: cman: FFS, folks, cant you assholes just make up your damned mind already?

You're asking for sensibility of people who choose to live in Ohio?

I can understand Eastern Ohio. It's practically Pennsylvania.

But Columbus??? Or Cincinnati? With what they call chili???


You shut your mouth about Cincinnati chili, philistine. It is meant to be served on sketti or conies.
 
2012-10-29 01:44:14 PM  
Does anyone have any good reading material regarding this whole "Sampling" BS?

The right claims they have it in the bag because of Oversampling, but I can't see any sources claiming they are wrong.
 
2012-10-29 01:45:55 PM  

Drakin030: Does anyone have any good reading material regarding this whole "Sampling" BS?

The right claims they have it in the bag because of Oversampling, but I can't see any sources claiming they are wrong.


There's not really anything to rebut - pollsters take the results as they are and just ask people what their party ID is. If it shows a lot of Democrats, conservatives whine and complain that doesn't reflect reality. It's just a dumb argument but it has traction because of wishful thinking.
 
2012-10-29 01:50:37 PM  

Drakin030: Does anyone have any good reading material regarding this whole "Sampling" BS?

The right claims they have it in the bag because of Oversampling, but I can't see any sources claiming they are wrong.


Simply put, if you call 30 people and 21 of them say they are democrats the right wants you to throw out 6 of them so that its fair. What any normal statistician would do.
 
2012-10-29 02:08:57 PM  
So if you have a poll that has a D sample of let's say +8 but the poll is tied, is that not reason to be concerned?

Basically someone saying "Yeah I'm a Democrat but I'm voting Romney"
 
2012-10-29 02:16:10 PM  
ghare

tony41454: NOT SO FAST:
Rasmussen released its latest survey of battleground Ohio this morning. The poll finds Romney surging into his first-ever lead in the Buckeye state. He now leads President Obama by 2 points among likely voters, 50-48. Importantly, Romney's support has crossed the critical 50% threshold. It is generally difficult for an incumbent to climb back above 50% once they have relinquished it.
Romney's lead in Ohio is within the margin of error, so the context remains extremely close. With just over a week to go, both campaigns will contest the state aggressively. But, it seems the momentum may be moving towards Romney.

Not what the polls show, but hey, whatever.


And just what do you think Rasmussen puts out, candy? DERP.
 
2012-10-29 02:18:07 PM  

tony41454: ghare

tony41454: NOT SO FAST:
Rasmussen released its latest survey of battleground Ohio this morning. The poll finds Romney surging into his first-ever lead in the Buckeye state. He now leads President Obama by 2 points among likely voters, 50-48. Importantly, Romney's support has crossed the critical 50% threshold. It is generally difficult for an incumbent to climb back above 50% once they have relinquished it.
Romney's lead in Ohio is within the margin of error, so the context remains extremely close. With just over a week to go, both campaigns will contest the state aggressively. But, it seems the momentum may be moving towards Romney.

Not what the polls show, but hey, whatever.

And just what do you think Rasmussen puts out, candy? DERP.


yes
 
2012-10-29 02:18:48 PM  

Drakin030: So if you have a poll that has a D sample of let's say +8 but the poll is tied, is that not reason to be concerned?

Basically someone saying "Yeah I'm a Democrat but I'm voting Romney"


What? No, the sample is not 50/50 dems/reps.

Just go to unskewedpolls.com. Its simpler.
 
2012-10-29 02:19:23 PM  

Pertifly: Please, god, just let this election be over.

 
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