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(Politico)   Debate bounce? Two weeks ago, Obama and Romney were tied in Ohio. Today, Obama is up by 4 points   (politico.com) divider line 174
    More: Interesting, Mitt Romney, obama, Ohio, PPP, young voters  
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1398 clicks; posted to Politics » on 29 Oct 2012 at 11:18 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-29 11:35:52 AM

Rapmaster2000: static5.businessinsider.com[static5.businessinsider.com image 400x300]

Unskewed Pollster is in the bushes watching you masturbate.


This is what I'm talking about. This fat piece of excrement can get away with his BS because people don't understand basic probability and statistical theories.

fark him and the people that believe polls.
 
2012-10-29 11:35:54 AM
PPP is Democratics leaning. That being said, the last 17 polls of Ohio have had Obama leading or an exact tie (Source: 538). He is obviously ahead there, assuming a fair election.
 
2012-10-29 11:36:14 AM
i.imgur.com
 
2012-10-29 11:36:31 AM

Mentat: Tomorrow's headline: Rasmussan poll give Romney 5 point lead in Ohio. Suck my balls libs.


i449.photobucket.com
 
2012-10-29 11:36:36 AM
Fartmussen shows Romney with a 2-point lead, his first ever Ohio lead. Suck it, libs.
 
2012-10-29 11:37:02 AM
You know what is going to happen on election day?

It is going to be real close, so close in fact that both candidates and their running mates get together and go on national TV. Each will give a speech. Then, during Romney's speech, Ryan is going to tap him on the shoulder, he will turn around, and Ryan is going to kick him in the stomach and give him a stunner. Obama will smile, and Biden will look confused. Then, Obama is going to go to shake Biden's hand, and turn it into a Rock Bottom. Ryan is going to do the face turn, while Biden is going to do the heel turn, and then it'll be a tag team match of Romney/Biden vs. Obama/Ryan for the presidency. And you don't want to know what'll happen during that.
 
2012-10-29 11:37:13 AM

tenpoundsofcheese: Jiro Dreams Of McRibs: When the Republican candidate OWNS voting machines, 4% is like a couple thousand code iterations

what is a "code iteration"?


Well, see, there's this thing called Google...

(I'll give you a cookie today. At least, for once, you admitted that you're ignorant on a subject)
 
2012-10-29 11:37:23 AM

Rapmaster2000: [static5.businessinsider.com image 400x300]

Unskewed Pollster is in the bushes watching you masturbate.


So, does that guy truly believe that statistics is all just an art, a method of pulling numbers out of one's ass? At least Silver seems to have an objective methodology based on actual statistical methods.

Dean Chambers on the other hand applies something akin to a 4th-grader's interpretation of how statistical analysis might work. It should be embarrassing.
 
2012-10-29 11:37:24 AM

coeyagi: Hyperbolic vitriol? Um, did Obama start a war under false pretenses? Did he single-handedly take our foreign policy and flush it down the crapper?


As far as objective reality goes, it's easy to make a case that Bush performed a lot worse as president than Obama has in their first terms. But mainstream voters never bought into attempts to demonize Bush for his mistakes, and voting "not Bush" wasn't sufficient to get Kerry elected. Just as voting "not Obama" isn't going to be enough to get Romney into office.
 
2012-10-29 11:38:08 AM

tenpoundsofcheese: Jiro Dreams Of McRibs: When the Republican candidate OWNS voting machines, 4% is like a couple thousand code iterations

what is a "code iteration"?


Something you will never understand.
 
2012-10-29 11:40:28 AM
Rasmussen has Romney up by 2 in Ohio
PPP has Obama up by 4 you say?

But, liberals on fark have told me that Rasmussen changes his numbers close to the election to make them more accurate.
 
2012-10-29 11:40:32 AM
static5.businessinsider.com

Professional Dildo Tester Dean Chambers
 
2012-10-29 11:40:33 AM

tenpoundsofcheese: Jiro Dreams Of McRibs: When the Republican candidate OWNS voting machines, 4% is like a couple thousand code iterations

what is a "code iteration"?


Iteration means the act of repeating a process with the aim of approaching a desired goal,target or result.

Genetic programming is an example where code is created and run then modified then run again. You keep doing the modifying and testing until you get what you're looking for. Sort of like politics.
 
2012-10-29 11:40:43 AM

Grand_Moff_Joseph: Or, it's just a reversion to the norm for this election. If you look at 538's trendlines and remove the convention and debate periods, the lines have barely moved the entire cycle.


This. The media has their own "close horse race" narrative they've been trying to sell to the morans, but the truth is, it's never been all that close , and Romney has never had a lead in electoral votes. Not even for a day. There's going to be some serious head-asploding amongst the right-wing echo chamber crowd, come November 7th.
 
2012-10-29 11:40:44 AM

meat0918: MFAWG: Mugato: Sybarite: Yes, I can clearly see how the many new and specific policy points illuminated in those debates could persuade 300,000 or so Ohioans to shift their preference from one candidate to the other.

Well Romney not being able to locate the country he plans to invade on a map might have swayed some people.

If a Democrat going against an incumbent Republican had made that gaffe at any point in the election, it would have been news for 36 hours at least.

Librul Media my ass

It's funny to see how the pendulum hasn't swung so much as fallen into a giant heap of metal and wire. No one trusts the media any longer. They only trust "their" media, be it bloggers, Fox News, or whatever.


Not reporting what should have been a campaign ending gaffe had very little to do with ideology.
 
2012-10-29 11:40:46 AM
PPP's last Ohio poll is a joke - their whole last round of swing-state polls are a joke, in fact.

That Ohio poll has a D+8 advantage - when the wave election of 2008 saw only a D+5 advantage. (2010 was R+1 in Ohio.)

So yes, Obama would be comfortably ahead in an alternate universe where Ohio had the demographics of a reliably Democratic state. But that's not the Ohio that exists in the real world where the most likely turnout is something like D+2 or D+3 (and that's being favorable to the Democratic side and assuming that Obama's GOTV efforts do well). In that case, something like the 49-49 split from the newspaper poll is much more likely.

Rasmussen shows Romney up 2 - which if you buy the house effect argument, would also support the race being tied.
 
2012-10-29 11:42:01 AM

WombatControl: PPP's last Ohio poll is a joke - their whole last round of swing-state polls are a joke, in fact.

That Ohio poll has a D+8 advantage - when the wave election of 2008 saw only a D+5 advantage. (2010 was R+1 in Ohio.)

So yes, Obama would be comfortably ahead in an alternate universe where Ohio had the demographics of a reliably Democratic state. But that's not the Ohio that exists in the real world where the most likely turnout is something like D+2 or D+3 (and that's being favorable to the Democratic side and assuming that Obama's GOTV efforts do well). In that case, something like the 49-49 split from the newspaper poll is much more likely.

Rasmussen shows Romney up 2 - which if you buy the house effect argument, would also support the race being tied.


Unskewed polls is the only poll that matters at this point in the game. Amirite?
 
2012-10-29 11:42:25 AM

randomjsa: Rasmussen has Romney up by 2 in Ohio
PPP has Obama up by 4 you say?

But, liberals on fark have told me that Rasmussen changes his numbers close to the election to make them more accurate.


No, we said he makes them accurate ON the day of the election, but thanks for making us think you're a liar.

WHY DO YOU HATE YOURSELF that you'd make us think you're a liar?
 
2012-10-29 11:42:31 AM

machoprogrammer: You know what is going to happen on election day?

It is going to be real close, so close in fact that both candidates and their running mates get together and go on national TV. Each will give a speech. Then, during Romney's speech, Ryan is going to tap him on the shoulder, he will turn around, and Ryan is going to kick him in the stomach and give him a stunner. Obama will smile, and Biden will look confused. Then, Obama is going to go to shake Biden's hand, and turn it into a Rock Bottom. Ryan is going to do the face turn, while Biden is going to do the heel turn, and then it'll be a tag team match of Romney/Biden vs. Obama/Ryan for the presidency. And you don't want to know what'll happen during that.


No. Clinton and Gore are going to run in with steel chairs and take all of them out, all the while the King will be screaming into the mic "Clinton is back, Clinton is back!"
 
2012-10-29 11:43:55 AM

tenpoundsofcheese: Jiro Dreams Of McRibs: When the Republican candidate OWNS voting machines, 4% is like a couple thousand code iterations

what is a "code iteration"?


It's when you back-track the signals to find the wastrels posting crap on the internets.
 
2012-10-29 11:44:11 AM

Jackson Herring: [static5.businessinsider.com image 400x300]

Professional Dildo Tester Dean Chambers


Goddamit you just made me choke on a Twix bar. I hereby fart on your bongos, sir!
 
2012-10-29 11:44:57 AM

Satanic_Hamster: machoprogrammer: You know what is going to happen on election day?

It is going to be real close, so close in fact that both candidates and their running mates get together and go on national TV. Each will give a speech. Then, during Romney's speech, Ryan is going to tap him on the shoulder, he will turn around, and Ryan is going to kick him in the stomach and give him a stunner. Obama will smile, and Biden will look confused. Then, Obama is going to go to shake Biden's hand, and turn it into a Rock Bottom. Ryan is going to do the face turn, while Biden is going to do the heel turn, and then it'll be a tag team match of Romney/Biden vs. Obama/Ryan for the presidency. And you don't want to know what'll happen during that.

No. Clinton and Gore are going to run in with steel chairs and take all of them out, all the while the King will be screaming into the mic "Clinton is back, Clinton is back!"


BAH GAWD KING! THOSE MEN WERE BROKEN IN HALF!

That would make a hell of a feud for the 2016 election, that is for sure. I hope it happens.
 
2012-10-29 11:45:41 AM
mine:

i.chzbgr.com
 
2012-10-29 11:48:51 AM

Zapruder: I'm sorry libs. I can't hear your bullcrap over my freedom.
[i6.photobucket.com image 758x565]


NateGrey: I dont know libs....

[unskewedpolls.com image 600x515]


COLORS! PRETTY!

Jackson Herring: [i.imgur.com image 600x515]


lulz
 
2012-10-29 11:49:51 AM
i.imgur.com
 
2012-10-29 11:49:53 AM

Satanic_Hamster: machoprogrammer: You know what is going to happen on election day?

It is going to be real close, so close in fact that both candidates and their running mates get together and go on national TV. Each will give a speech. Then, during Romney's speech, Ryan is going to tap him on the shoulder, he will turn around, and Ryan is going to kick him in the stomach and give him a stunner. Obama will smile, and Biden will look confused. Then, Obama is going to go to shake Biden's hand, and turn it into a Rock Bottom. Ryan is going to do the face turn, while Biden is going to do the heel turn, and then it'll be a tag team match of Romney/Biden vs. Obama/Ryan for the presidency. And you don't want to know what'll happen during that.

No. Clinton and Gore are going to run in with steel chairs and take all of them out, all the while the King will be screaming into the mic "Clinton is back, Clinton is back!"


Now THIS I would tune in for!
 
2012-10-29 11:51:06 AM

Zapruder: I'm sorry libs. I can't hear your bullcrap over my freedom.
[i6.photobucket.com image 758x565]


I am really tempted to post this on my facebook to see how many of my conservative friends start sharing it.
 
2012-10-29 11:51:55 AM

Summoner101: Zapruder: I'm sorry libs. I can't hear your bullcrap over my freedom.

The best part of that map is MI going red.


It wouldn't be truthy enough without at least 1 Maine vote going red.

/Teh County and Washington County: we put the "red" in redneck
 
2012-10-29 11:52:05 AM

WombatControl: PPP's last Ohio poll is a joke - their whole last round of swing-state polls are a joke, in fact.

That Ohio poll has a D+8 advantage - when the wave election of 2008 saw only a D+5 advantage. (2010 was R+1 in Ohio.)

So yes, Obama would be comfortably ahead in an alternate universe where Ohio had the demographics of a reliably Democratic state. But that's not the Ohio that exists in the real world where the most likely turnout is something like D+2 or D+3 (and that's being favorable to the Democratic side and assuming that Obama's GOTV efforts do well). In that case, something like the 49-49 split from the newspaper poll is much more likely.

Rasmussen shows Romney up 2 - which if you buy the house effect argument, would also support the race being tied.


What's funny is I haven't seen anyone refute the voter turnout argument. Libs are just as bad when it comes to "I reject your reality and substitute my own"
 
2012-10-29 11:52:21 AM
i.qkme.me
 
2012-10-29 11:56:49 AM

lennavan: Today: [img0.fark.net image 77x27]Debate bounce? Two weeks ago, Obama and Romney were tied in Ohio. Today, Obama is up by 4 points

Yesterday: [img0.fark.net image 77x27]Two weeks ago, Obama had a 5 point lead in Ohio. Today, Romney has tied it up

Whatever side you're on, you can be a winner!


Only one of those is a troll though. Welcome to Fark.
 
2012-10-29 11:57:07 AM
i.imgur.com
 
2012-10-29 11:57:50 AM

Drakin030: WombatControl: PPP's last Ohio poll is a joke - their whole last round of swing-state polls are a joke, in fact.

That Ohio poll has a D+8 advantage - when the wave election of 2008 saw only a D+5 advantage. (2010 was R+1 in Ohio.)

So yes, Obama would be comfortably ahead in an alternate universe where Ohio had the demographics of a reliably Democratic state. But that's not the Ohio that exists in the real world where the most likely turnout is something like D+2 or D+3 (and that's being favorable to the Democratic side and assuming that Obama's GOTV efforts do well). In that case, something like the 49-49 split from the newspaper poll is much more likely.

Rasmussen shows Romney up 2 - which if you buy the house effect argument, would also support the race being tied.

What's funny is I haven't seen anyone refute the voter turnout argument. Libs are just as bad when it comes to "I reject your reality and substitute my own"


It seems like most 'libs' on this thread think the 4 point lead is too high and think it is really only around 2 points for the president. What thread have you been reading?
 
2012-10-29 11:58:00 AM
Oh, and the PPP poll is a weekend sample conducted the 26th-28th. Polls conducted over a weekend traditionally undercount Republican voters (who are more likely to be at church than responding to pollsters).
 
2012-10-29 12:00:05 PM

Cletus C.: Oh goodie, let's argue some more about polls.


It's election season. This is what we do here. Get used to it.
 
2012-10-29 12:00:07 PM
i.qkme.me
 
2012-10-29 12:00:34 PM

Drakin030: WombatControl: PPP's last Ohio poll is a joke - their whole last round of swing-state polls are a joke, in fact.

That Ohio poll has a D+8 advantage - when the wave election of 2008 saw only a D+5 advantage. (2010 was R+1 in Ohio.)

So yes, Obama would be comfortably ahead in an alternate universe where Ohio had the demographics of a reliably Democratic state. But that's not the Ohio that exists in the real world where the most likely turnout is something like D+2 or D+3 (and that's being favorable to the Democratic side and assuming that Obama's GOTV efforts do well). In that case, something like the 49-49 split from the newspaper poll is much more likely.

Rasmussen shows Romney up 2 - which if you buy the house effect argument, would also support the race being tied.

What's funny is I haven't seen anyone refute the voter turnout argument. Libs are just as bad when it comes to "I reject your reality and substitute my own"


Which is naturally why the evil "libs" on here have been saying that it's about the ground game for the last week.
 
2012-10-29 12:02:41 PM

LockeOak: mine:

[i.chzbgr.com image 300x500]


still brilliant
 
2012-10-29 12:02:53 PM

WombatControl: Oh, and the PPP poll is a weekend sample conducted the 26th-28th. Polls conducted over a weekend traditionally undercount Republican voters (who are more likely to be at church than responding to pollsters).


So weekday polls are more accurate because Republican voters.....are at home to answer the phone?
 
2012-10-29 12:03:24 PM
Did they poll the same people? If not, the results may be skewed.
 
2012-10-29 12:06:23 PM

NateGrey: WombatControl: Oh, and the PPP poll is a weekend sample conducted the 26th-28th. Polls conducted over a weekend traditionally undercount Republican voters (who are more likely to be at church than responding to pollsters).

So weekday polls are more accurate because Republican voters.....are at home to answer the phone?


Polls are also more accurate when they don't include cell phones, because that is the tried and true model we've used for 50 years now.

/This is what the tea party actually believes.
 
2012-10-29 12:06:34 PM

WombatControl: Oh, and the PPP poll is a weekend sample conducted the 26th-28th. Polls conducted over a weekend traditionally undercount Republican voters (who are more likely to be at church than responding to pollsters).


No matter what you say, Obama is still up in Ohio, though, unless every single pollster has it wrong (which they don't). Infodump from 538 follows:

Ohio



FiveThirtyEight Projections

Dem

Rep

Margin



Polling average

48.4

45.6

Obama +2.8



Adjusted polling average

48.3

45.9

Obama +2.4



State fundamentals

46.8

47.9

Romney +1.1



Now-cast

48.2

46.0

Obama +2.2



Projected vote share±3.3

50.5

48.3

Obama +2.2



Chance of winning

75%

25%

Polls

538 WT.

Date

Dem

Rep

Margin



PPP


10/28

51.0

47.0

Obama +4.0



Gravis Marketing


10/27

50.0

49.0

Obama +1.0



CNN/Opinion Research *


10/25

48.0

44.0

Obama +4.0



Purple Strategies


10/25

46.0

44.0

Obama +2.0



American Research Group


10/25

49.0

47.0

Obama +2.0



Lake Research Partners


10/23

46.0

44.0

Obama +2.0



Rasmussen


10/23

48.0

48.0

Tie



Time/SRBI


10/23

49.0

44.0

Obama +5.0



U. of Cincinnati/Ohio Poll


10/23

49.0

49.0

Tie



SurveyUSA


10/22

47.0

44.0

Obama +3.0



Suffolk *


10/21

47.0

47.0

Tie



PPP


10/20

49.0

48.0

Obama +1.0



Angus Reid


10/20

45.0

45.0

Tie



Quinnipiac


10/20

50.0

45.0

Obama +5.0



Gravis Marketing


10/19

47.0

47.0

Tie



Fox News


10/18

46.0

43.0

Obama +3.0



Rasmussen


10/17

49.0

48.0

Obama +1.0
 
2012-10-29 12:06:48 PM

WombatControl: Oh, and the PPP poll is a weekend sample conducted the 26th-28th. Polls conducted over a weekend traditionally undercount Republican voters (who are more likely to be at church than responding to pollsters).


Okay, now you're doing too much.
 
2012-10-29 12:08:10 PM

WombatControl: Oh, and the PPP poll is a weekend sample conducted the 26th-28th. Polls conducted over a weekend traditionally undercount Republican voters (who are more likely to be at church than responding to pollsters).


Haha, that's good stuff. I didn't know Republicans went to church on Saturday and Sunday, they most truly be more pious than the rest of us.

Anyway, the polls are close in Ohio. Even if we can say Obama has lead the majority of them, even if we say Republicans are at church and under sampled, they're close. Which is why it is lucky Romney's family bought all those voting machines to make sure there is funny business.

Er, no funny business, I meant.
 
2012-10-29 12:08:24 PM
Well if this blogger wants to sweetly cornhole Nate while Sweet Home Alabama quietly plays over the grunts and squeals, then 538 is clearly wrong.
 
2012-10-29 12:11:34 PM
i.qkme.me
 
2012-10-29 12:12:06 PM
What I found interesting was this graph by Nate:

graphics8.nytimes.com

Basically, if you are leading in a state in the poll of polls by more than 1.5 points, you will win the state. Only ONCE in the last thirty years has someone lost a state when winning it in the polls by more than 1.5.
 
2012-10-29 12:14:04 PM

WombatControl: PPP's last Ohio poll is a joke - their whole last round of swing-state polls are a joke, in fact.

That Ohio poll has a D+8 advantage - when the wave election of 2008 saw only a D+5 advantage. (2010 was R+1 in Ohio.)

So yes, Obama would be comfortably ahead in an alternate universe where Ohio had the demographics of a reliably Democratic state. But that's not the Ohio that exists in the real world where the most likely turnout is something like D+2 or D+3 (and that's being favorable to the Democratic side and assuming that Obama's GOTV efforts do well). In that case, something like the 49-49 split from the newspaper poll is much more likely.

Rasmussen shows Romney up 2 - which if you buy the house effect argument, would also support the race being tied.


"Nearly one-in-three Ohio voters (32%) have already cast their ballots. Obama leads 62% to 36% among these voters. "

Obama is leading 26 points in early voting and you think showing a DNC with +8 more in sampling is inaccurate?

Think about what you are saying because it would mean that a record number of Republicans are voting for Obama. What don't use just concede that Obama takes Ohio. The writing is on the wall.
 
2012-10-29 12:15:12 PM
Does Nate Silver still have access to the Obama campaign's internal polling?
 
2012-10-29 12:15:58 PM

guilt by association: Does Nate Silver still have access to the Obama campaign's internal polling?


I would assume so. That's the benefit of being thin and high voiced.
 
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