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1525 clicks; posted to Politics » on 28 Oct 2012 at 1:48 PM (5 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:    more»

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If liberals are so smart, how come they lose so goddamn always?

Margin of error works both ways.

If A and B are within four points of each other. It should really be within eight points since if B goes up by four points, then A will come down by four.

Using this logic, a spread of 39 to 47 should be called a dead heat. Morans.

Sounds kinky - in a 50 shades of Grey sort of way.

BeatrixK: - Uses a failed mail service and a dead outlaw as 'tourist' draws.

And a guy who absolutely hated his hometown so much that he left when he was a teenager, but yet the town still celebrates him anyway.

balloot: For the billionth time. A poll of 45-43 is not a "statistical dead heat". It means that one candidate is probably leading, but the result is within a 95% confidence interval.

So if the result of a poll was such that one candidate has a 90% chance of winning and the other has a 10% chance of winning, that is within the MOE and is therefore a "statistical dead heat" according to the way many news agencies report these things. See the issue there?

No, it means there's a 95% chance that the race is somewhere between 49%-39% McCaskill and 47%-41% Akin.

The probability distribution is skewed somewhat towards McCaskill, but from this one poll you can't say she's "probably" leading.

This is why it's useful to average multiple polls together.

RanDomino: If liberals are so smart, how come they lose so goddamn always?

They want to reform rather than scrap and rebuild.

He can say pretty much whatever he wants. He's got an -R after his name, a penis, and loves Jaysus. That's all that matters to any "values" voter.

QuesoDelicioso: He can say pretty much whatever he wants. He's got an -R after his name, a penis, and loves Jaysus. That's all that matters to any "values" voter.

They love a penis.

RanDomino: If liberals are so smart, how come they lose so goddamn always?

Because people are dumb enough to vote GOP.

Doesn't surprise me at all really. I know plenty of people who will still vote Akin, because McCaskill is a "liberal". The rape comment doesn't matter to a lot of people.

RanDomino: If liberals are so smart, how come they lose so goddamn always?

Because the Democrats play politics the same way Charlie Brown plays football.

/Raperaperaperaperape.

McCaskill has several things working against her:

1. She was an early and vocal supporter of Obama in 2008. For a while she was his primary female surrogate on TV. That makes her toxic to a huge chunk of the Missouruh voters no matter what she or Akin does.
2. Around 2010 she decided to adopt the Blue Dog strategy and start distancing herself from Obama. This pissed off a big chunk of Missouri voters. Not enough to vote against her...but maybe keep them unenthused and home on Election Day. That strategy basically wiped out the Blue Dogs in the Senate that were up for election in 2010.

Those two things alone made her reelection chances just about zero. Her seat was considered to be the very most likely GOP pickup in 2012. So much so that her campaign all but advertised for Akin in the GOP primary knowing his idiocy was her one shot at possibly winning...their hope being his uber-extreme views would end up farking him. And sure enough, he barfs out the legitimate rape comment mere days after winning the Primary.

So really what we're seeing in these polls probably isn't as much support for Rape Akin, but a lack of it for McCaskill. You take the above factors and add to it the fact Missouri has been trending more and more Red over the years and these numbers don't surprise me at all. Unless you live here and have travelled the state it's hard to appreciate just how farking backwards so much of it is. You can drive 35-45 minutes from either KC or St. Louis and feel like you've ended up on the set of Deliverance. You drive a few minutes out of the state capital in any direction and it's much the same. Aside from the accents, there's no difference between the bootheel area of Missouri and the most ass-backwards parts of Mississippi. We're talking people that not only have no problem with Akin's comments...they probably believe them to be true.

redmond24: Can we stop it with the "Just kidding!" headlines?

I thought headlines had to be funny or creative to get greened.

CALM THE FARK DOWN!!!

forget it, jake - it's missouri.

BeatrixK: As a Missouri resident, believe me - the amount of 'WTF is wrong with people here?!?!?', if you have a shred of sanity, should go through your head at least daily at some point.

This is the state that:

- A major metro newspaper misspelled it's city's name...for over 70 years.
- They guy who peed in his coworkers coffee pot and was caught on tape: A Show Me Stater! (Added bonus - the coffee pot is now proudly on display in a museum in the city where it went down.)
- Uses a failed mail service and a dead outlaw as 'tourist' draws.
- Is home to the Royals

Missouri has some great things, too - but please don't forget that a large portion of this state is just Arkansas residents with more teeth.

I've been through backwoods Missouri more than I care to admit, but those people do not have more teeth than their Arkansas cousins. Sorry to burst your bubble. ;)

TheOther: They want to reform rather than scrap and rebuild>.

FTFY

Dear America,

Sorry. Again.

-Missouri

elchip: balloot: For the billionth time. A poll of 45-43 is not a "statistical dead heat". It means that one candidate is probably leading, but the result is within a 95% confidence interval.

So if the result of a poll was such that one candidate has a 90% chance of winning and the other has a 10% chance of winning, that is within the MOE and is therefore a "statistical dead heat" according to the way many news agencies report these things. See the issue there?

No, it means there's a 95% chance that the race is somewhere between 49%-39% McCaskill and 47%-41% Akin.

The probability distribution is skewed somewhat towards McCaskill, but from this one poll you can't say she's "probably" leading.

This is why it's useful to average multiple polls together.

When "the probability distribution is skewed" towards a candidate, that candidate is more probable to win. Therefore, that candidate is probably leading.

Forbidden Doughnut: NeverDrunk23: vpb: This country is farked. Even though I don't think they are going to win, It is disturbing that there are so many deranged freaks out there.

You know how that 25% number was always around during Bush's term? Its never going away. No matter how god damn stupid/harmful/horrible/self destructive something is, 25% of the country will always support it.

What about demographic changes in the American population? (eg. ethnic and generational change). Long term, I thing the Republicans will have to adapt, or they'll wind up being like the Constitution Party.

Depends. We've already got a couple generations of eligible voters (everyone after the Boomers) who can't be bothered to show up to vote every 4 years, much less every 2 years. Meanwhile, Republicans in the states are making it structurally harder and harder for people to vote. Demographics can change up the wazoo, but it doesn't make a bit of difference if those new generations don't vote. People talk about the GOP changing its policies, or dying out completely, due to demographic change in the long term, but I think it's just as likely that we become a less and less democratic country as citizens continue to fail to fight back against the GOP.

IMO, Akin needs to get out and talk to people outside his usual social circle. He stuck his foot in his mouth and paid the price. That said, it shouldn't surprise anyone that Claire McCaskill is not winning hands down, she is unlikeable.

I think it's pretty clear by now that many Republicans are ok with rape, especially if the victim gets pregnant.

Tyrone Slothrop: I think it's pretty clear by now that many Republicans are ok with rape, especially if the victim gets pregnant.

Nah, this just shows that, given the choice between getting raped and re-electing Claire McCaskill, a large amount of Missourians would rather be raped.

What I want to know is: given how big of a dumb@ss Akin is, WTF has McCaskill done that allows him to remain a viable challenger?

Girl From The North Country: I don't think Yahoo has studied their statisticals.

Yahoo wants to go trick-or-treating as Fox News, apparently.

Girl From The North Country: Uncle Eazy: I did a targeted GOTV for Claire yesterday. I had one person say the were voting for Claire but not Obama because he's going to ruin the country. Several we're still undecided. And a grandmother who almost spat at me at the mention of Claire. And these are people on a list of known democrats.

Really? Silver has this as an 88% chance McCaskill win. Doesn't seem very toss-ups.

No one listens to Silver. Silver is whispy and lithe and oh so gheh and I bet he just glistens when he lathers himself in the shower as he moves his washcloth down along his long meaty......uh.....what were we talking about again?

ScreamingHangover: Tyrone Slothrop: I think it's pretty clear by now that many Republicans are ok with rape, especially if the victim gets pregnant.

Nah, this just shows that, given the choice between getting raped and re-electing Claire McCaskill, a large amount of Missourians would rather be raped.

What I want to know is: given how big of a dumb@ss Akin is, WTF has McCaskill done that allows him to remain a viable challenger?

She has in the past been not a Republican.

DamnYankees: The fact that the Dems are gonna hold the Senate is just a hilarious fail by the GOP.

If Rmoney somehow wins but the Senate stays in Democratic control, I'm gonna call the Senate The House of Koch-Blocking. :)

RanDomino: If liberals are so smart, how come they lose so goddamn always?

Too civilized. Liberals need to learn to leave morals and ethics behind when it comes election time. Like conservatives.

max_pooper: ScreamingHangover: Tyrone Slothrop: I think it's pretty clear by now that many Republicans are ok with rape, especially if the victim gets pregnant.

Nah, this just shows that, given the choice between getting raped and re-electing Claire McCaskill, a large amount of Missourians would rather be raped.

What I want to know is: given how big of a dumb@ss Akin is, WTF has McCaskill done that allows him to remain a viable challenger?

She has in the past been not a Republican.

In the past, she has already been elected for this very seat while being a non-Republican. So you can't blame it purely on the partisan proclivities of the electorate.

My question was -having already been elected- what idiocy has McCaskill committed that allows this douchebag to pose a threat to her seat? Everyone's focusing on Akin, but no one's asking why McCaskill's so incompetent that he still poses a challenge.

mksmith: RanDomino: If liberals are so smart, how come they lose so goddamn always?

Too civilized. Liberals need to learn to leave morals and ethics behind when it comes election time. Like conservatives.

I LOLed

ScreamingHangover: max_pooper: ScreamingHangover: Tyrone Slothrop: I think it's pretty clear by now that many Republicans are ok with rape, especially if the victim gets pregnant.

Nah, this just shows that, given the choice between getting raped and re-electing Claire McCaskill, a large amount of Missourians would rather be raped.

What I want to know is: given how big of a dumb@ss Akin is, WTF has McCaskill done that allows him to remain a viable challenger?

She has in the past been not a Republican.

In the past, she has already been elected for this very seat while being a non-Republican. So you can't blame it purely on the partisan proclivities of the electorate.

My question was -having already been elected- what idiocy has McCaskill committed that allows this douchebag to pose a threat to her seat? Everyone's focusing on Akin, but no one's asking why McCaskill's so incompetent that he still poses a challenge.

From above:
1) She was Obama's visible surrogate, pissing off the right and the moderates.
2) She then went Blue Dog, pissing off the Left.

meyerkev: ScreamingHangover: max_pooper: ScreamingHangover: Tyrone Slothrop: I think it's pretty clear by now that many Republicans are ok with rape, especially if the victim gets pregnant.

Nah, this just shows that, given the choice between getting raped and re-electing Claire McCaskill, a large amount of Missourians would rather be raped.

What I want to know is: given how big of a dumb@ss Akin is, WTF has McCaskill done that allows him to remain a viable challenger?

She has in the past been not a Republican.

In the past, she has already been elected for this very seat while being a non-Republican. So you can't blame it purely on the partisan proclivities of the electorate.

My question was -having already been elected- what idiocy has McCaskill committed that allows this douchebag to pose a threat to her seat? Everyone's focusing on Akin, but no one's asking why McCaskill's so incompetent that he still poses a challenge.

From above:
1) She was Obama's visible surrogate, pissing off the right and the moderates.
2) She then went Blue Dog, pissing off the Left.

3) She's not a militant christian extremist advocating complete unbridled corporatism.

/st. louis
//never come here

vpb: NeverDrunk23: vpb: This country is farked. Even though I don't think they are going to win, It is disturbing that there are so many deranged freaks out there.

You know how that 25% number was always around during Bush's term? Its never going away. No matter how god damn stupid/harmful/horrible/self destructive something is, 25% of the country will always support it.

That's the problem, where is that other 20% or so coming from? What is wrong with them that they vote for the pants on the head crazy party?

They're Right Wing Authoritarians. It literally doesn't matter what their guy does because he's their guy. The jokes about the republican going onstage and sodomizing a puppy aren't really jokes, because those RWA types will find some way to justify it. They also love the "You forgot Poland" argument, where if there is the tiniest problem with any part of an argument they feel smugly justified in disregarding the whole thing.

You mean not everybody is a one issue voter? This is shocking to liberals? The liberal mantra of return to abortion when losing is a tired game plan. Nobody buys it anymore. No legislation will overturn r v w. Liberals need an original idea for once. And no, spend other people's money is not original.

MyRandomName: You mean not everybody is a one issue voter? This is shocking to liberals? The liberal mantra of return to abortion when losing is a tired game plan. Nobody buys it anymore. No legislation will overturn r v w. Liberals need an original idea for once. And no, spend other people's money is not original.

What is the 'one issue' to which you are referring? Rape?

Duyogurt: And Nate Silver has the race at 88% in favor of McCaskill. Who do you trust?

The fact that it's not 100% McCaskill means it might as well be a dead heat.

MyRandomName: You mean not everybody is a one issue voter? This is shocking to liberals? The liberal mantra of return to abortion when losing is a tired game plan. Nobody buys it anymore. No legislation will overturn r v w. Liberals need an original idea for once. And no, spend other people's money is not original.

Sorry, but on this issue, there is no other issue. This asshole thinks there's no such thing as rape. He believes women can't get pregnant from rape--which means that if a woman DOES get pregnant, it "wasn't really rape." Anyone who thinks that should not be setting policy. ANY policy. This has nothing to do with anything else--this issue should be a deal-breaker. I can agree to disagree with people on anything up to and including capital punishment, but when he starts spewing this crap, he has to go.

MyRandomName: You mean not everybody is a one issue voter? This is shocking to liberals? The liberal mantra of return to abortion when losing is a tired game plan. Nobody buys it anymore. No legislation will overturn r v w. Liberals need an original idea for once. And no, spend other people's money is not original.

Really? so Republicans are totally fiscal now and want to get the economy under control without adding "social conservative" (read:evangelical trash) dogma? Fark me with a rake! What an amazing turnaround! I'm totally convinced that the GOP won't try to add stupid riders to jobs bills to enact sweeping social conservative derp over this country. Thanks, dude!

windstrider: Uncle Eazy: I did a targeted GOTV for Claire yesterday. I had one person say the were voting for Claire but not Obama because he's going to ruin the country. Several we're still undecided. And a grandmother who almost spat at me at the mention of Claire. And these are people on a list of known democrats.

Really? I did a GOTV effort last weekend. I talked to six people total. Only one was undecided. The others were very strongly supportive of Obama and the Democrats. I'm hoping to get out again this week.

Difficulty: Festus.

I'm going out again later this week.

Uncle Eazy: Difficulty: Festus.

I'm going out again later this week.

Jesus man, you're farking brave. Seriously, good luck to you.

but here's the real skinny, everyone is lying to the pollsters. They're still going to go and vote for Akin because he's a republican, they're just not going to tell you that when you call to ask. Todd Akin, human filth, will be a U.S. Senator.

MyRandomName: You mean not everybody is a one issue voter? This is shocking to liberals? The liberal mantra of return to abortion when losing is a tired game plan. Nobody buys it anymore. No legislation will overturn r v w. Liberals need an original idea for once. And no, spend other people's money is not original.

Shrugging Atlas: Uncle Eazy: Difficulty: Festus.

I'm going out again later this week.

Jesus man, you're farking brave. Seriously, good luck to you.

I did it for Obama in Arnold in '08. That was far scarier.

RanDomino: If liberals are so smart, how come they lose so goddamn always?

Can you please post in English?

Uncle Eazy: Shrugging Atlas: Uncle Eazy: Difficulty: Festus.

I'm going out again later this week.

Jesus man, you're farking brave. Seriously, good luck to you.

I did it for Obama in Arnold in '08. That was far scarier.

I can see that. I think the difference between Arnold and Festus is Festus you'll get more of the polite country folk types since it's far enough out. They'll disagree but not take it personal. With Arnold you're more likely to get the angry white trash.

I stayed close to home and worked Fenton in 2008 and was honestly surprised and the reception I got. Very few outright assholes. This year we've had nothing but Dems knocking on our door too which seems odd. Not a single Republican for any level of office.

If Biden can screw up on a weekly basis and still be on the ticket, then a guy who farks up big one time surely has nothing to worry about.

Even the DoucheCrats are tired of Crooked Claire and her husband making \$40 Million off of Claire's Contacts

You have to be a major DoucheCrat to be so obsessed over Akin's comment...which he has apologized for...and vote for Crooked Claire

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