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(Examiner)   Unskewed Pollman: "Nate Silver can't be trusted because he's thin and might be gay, too"   (examiner.com ) divider line
    More: Dumbass, Baseball Prospectus, career development, Fantasyland, swing vote, Dick Morris, swing states  
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4757 clicks; posted to Politics » on 27 Oct 2012 at 10:51 AM (3 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-27 11:02:31 AM  
So he's saying trust me because I'm fat?
 
2012-10-27 11:03:28 AM  
Nate Silver can't be trusted because when he talks, he kinda sounds gay. But Dick Morris can be trusted because in this guy's world, Dick Morris doesn't sound gay? I know he was busted for sucking a female hooker's toes, but that guy really sounds gay.
 
2012-10-27 11:03:55 AM  

MrBallou: On a slight tangent, it looks like Team Obama may have played it right in terms of letting Rmoney peak early.

[i49.tinypic.com image 433x302] 

The reservoir tip broke and probably won't close up again.


In my totally unprofessional opinion, during the Presidential Debates, I think Romney lost votes every time he said he agreed with the President. His abrupt turn to the center probably cost him some of the base.
 
2012-10-27 11:04:09 AM  

theinsultabot9000: Osomatic: Not only is the Right flailing, so is the regular media - if they just reported "Yeah, Obama is pretty much going to win a second term" nobody would bother watching any more. I'm sure stuff like this will get as much currency as possible until after November 6th. They're not so much in favor of liberals as they are in favor of as many people watching/reading as possible. A close race is more interesting and more newsworthy. They've practically been falling through their own a-holes waiting for an October Surprise so that they could spend 24 hours a day analyzing it.

its not just a close race, I listen to POTUS radio a lot (Politics Of The United States for the People Of The United States for people who dont pay attention to XM) a reasonably unbiased station over all and they werent just going with it was a close race but they were going over the gallup poll and talking to people on the ground reporting what they saw as a genuine swell of support for Mitt Romney, and were openly questioning whether Obama should try and fight it out or make some kind of grand last stand on his principles because he knew he was going to be beat and wanted to try and frame his legacy.


this was just a day or two mind, so after all the mitt-mentum had died out in the polls.


I think its obviously a close race - the entire basis for saying its not is that Obama seems to have a firewall in certain swing states which is exceeding has national vote margin. Now, there's a very good reason to believe this is true - Obama is underperforming in solid blue states and getting killed in the solid red states, which could lead to a split in the popular vote and the electoral college. But any time you have a split in those metrics, I think its by definition a very tight race in which no candidate should feel very comfortable.
 
2012-10-27 11:04:48 AM  

TV's Vinnie: Oh man. WHEN Obama wins his second term, the WHARRGARBL from these rightards is gonna be downright Apocalyptic. I better stock up on paper towels and Jergens to enjoy that moment for as long as I can.


I'm waiting for the violence. And there will be violence. I take solace in the fact that the people performing the violence are too stupid to do any real damage.
 
2012-10-27 11:05:04 AM  
I read the article in this guy's voice.

25.media.tumblr.com
 
2012-10-27 11:11:12 AM  
never trust a thin man's statistics... or a chef with a gambling problem.
 
2012-10-27 11:12:17 AM  
i47.tinypic.com
 
2012-10-27 11:16:14 AM  
Ten more days. That's all. In ten days all will be revealed. Between now and then, I will enjoy the super-storm news coverage as it interrupts the campaign coverage. Clearly, even god is pissed at how long this whole campaign is taking.
 
2012-10-27 11:16:22 AM  

log_jammin: I have a feeling we will never hear anything else about "UnSkewedPolls.com" after November.


I don't know. I thought the same thing about hillaryis44.com back in 2008, and yet they're still kicking around.
 
2012-10-27 11:17:30 AM  
Oh, and Silver Wang. Say it. Silver Wang.
 
2012-10-27 11:17:33 AM  
The guy who wrote that article sounds fat.
 
2012-10-27 11:17:43 AM  
I do think its funny that people seem to put so much stock in Nate Silver because he... Predicted 49 out of 50 states in 2008.

Anyone who was reasonably paying attention to the 2008 election could have told you 45 out of 50 and they also could have told you that the last 5 didn't matter because the first 45 would decide the election. It's also been sort of funny to watch liberals on this site who have repeatedly said "Rasmussen is unreliable. He changes his results to match everyone else when it gets close to the election which is why his results are so much more accurate close to the election!"

So liberals are saying Obama is going to lose in 2012? Because if Rasmussen is correct... Obama is finished.
 
2012-10-27 11:18:43 AM  
Okay cons, pay attention. Below, you'll find links to Real Conservative Propaganda's "no swing state" electoral map, which distributes the map according to who they say is currently leading in each state's polls. And to Karl Rove's own electoral map.

You'll notice that Real Conservative Propaganda's map doesn't look all that different from Nate Silver's. And if you distributed Karl Rove's map according to who currently leads in each state, you'd see Obama wins it too.

Link

Link

Nate Silver really isn't spinning anything. He's just taking into account more data, and weighing it according to a wider variety of empirically demonstrable factors, than any of the other sites--which also say Obama is leading.
 
2012-10-27 11:19:13 AM  

DamnYankees: theinsultabot9000: Osomatic: Not only is the Right flailing, so is the regular media - if they just reported "Yeah, Obama is pretty much going to win a second term" nobody would bother watching any more. I'm sure stuff like this will get as much currency as possible until after November 6th. They're not so much in favor of liberals as they are in favor of as many people watching/reading as possible. A close race is more interesting and more newsworthy. They've practically been falling through their own a-holes waiting for an October Surprise so that they could spend 24 hours a day analyzing it.

its not just a close race, I listen to POTUS radio a lot (Politics Of The United States for the People Of The United States for people who dont pay attention to XM) a reasonably unbiased station over all and they werent just going with it was a close race but they were going over the gallup poll and talking to people on the ground reporting what they saw as a genuine swell of support for Mitt Romney, and were openly questioning whether Obama should try and fight it out or make some kind of grand last stand on his principles because he knew he was going to be beat and wanted to try and frame his legacy.


this was just a day or two mind, so after all the mitt-mentum had died out in the polls.

I think its obviously a close race - the entire basis for saying its not is that Obama seems to have a firewall in certain swing states which is exceeding has national vote margin. Now, there's a very good reason to believe this is true - Obama is underperforming in solid blue states and getting killed in the solid red states, which could lead to a split in the popular vote and the electoral college. But any time you have a split in those metrics, I think its by definition a very tight race in which no candidate should feel very comfortable.



well, its not that this was a close race, was the narrative they have been going with and were still kind of on yesterday, it was Romney has managed to lock it pretty well down, that momentum is hard to shift far enough 11 days out to matter, so how should Obama spend his last 10 days in office. It kind of surprised me because generally I hold their journalistic integrity in fairly high regard. actually made me wonder if maybe I was allowing myself to be deluded. still, I also trust Nate Silver so...

Iuuno.
 
2012-10-27 11:20:09 AM  

randomjsa: I do think its funny...


dnr;0content
 
2012-10-27 11:20:46 AM  

Three Crooked Squirrels: Nate Silver can't be trusted because when he talks, he kinda sounds gay. But Dick Morris can be trusted because in this guy's world, Dick Morris doesn't sound gay? I know he was busted for sucking a female hooker's toes, but that guy really sounds gay.


Dick Morris has some of the weirdest, most effeminate mannerisms I've ever seen on an allegedly heterosexual man. I have honestly never understood why he was given such a prominent role in Fox News. He's not physically attractive, his voice is annoying, he doesn't say anything intelligent - it's all overblown belligerence, he's morally corrupt, and he has no credibility outside that Fox bubble. They could have found any number of superior personalities to fill his slot, so I'm assuming that he's entirely coasting on his past association with the Clintons, because he's got absolutely nothing else going for him. He's very repulsive.
 
2012-10-27 11:20:54 AM  
Articles like this are the result of republicans pointing fingers at reality and scream "LIBERAL CONSPIRACY!!"
 
2012-10-27 11:21:33 AM  
I don't get it. All one has to do is wait until the election to see if Nate is correct or not. Why all the butthurt now?
 
2012-10-27 11:21:41 AM  
So I read at the bottom that unskewed now has a section devoted to humor about Obama.

That totally seems like something I'd be looking for when I want unskewed and unbiased reporting on polls.
 
2012-10-27 11:22:37 AM  
I read the article in these guys' voices.

news.techeye.net

/would like to meet someone of superior intelligence
 
2012-10-27 11:23:36 AM  

RyogaM: Ten more days. That's all. In ten days all will be revealed. Between now and then, I will enjoy the super-storm news coverage as it interrupts the campaign coverage. Clearly, even god is pissed at how long this whole campaign is taking.


imgs.xkcd.com

That cartoon right there is America anymore.
 
2012-10-27 11:24:28 AM  

gingerjet: I don't get it. All one has to do is wait until the election to see if Nate is correct or not. Why all the butthurt now?


It's that special brand of cognitive dissonance that manifests itself in the mind of someone who knows his guy/team/whatever is probably going to lose, but who has no ability to respond to a loss with any sort of honesty, let alone dignity.
 
vpb [TotalFark]
2012-10-27 11:24:32 AM  

DamnYankees: Osomatic: log_jammin:

Yeah. If Obama wins, they'll wake up the next day angry at the world but will never consider the possibility they were lied to and lied to them selves. I don't get how people go through life like that.

That said, about 48% of the country is going to wake up the next day angry, I guess. We're all being lied to, at least a little bit. Some of us are being lied to about how "both sides are the same so why bother voting." And there are many, many other lies.

Basically this. November 7 is going to be absolutely unbearable for half this country. We just dont know which half.


Either half or all. The right is going to get screwed wither way, except for the very wealthy.
 
2012-10-27 11:25:58 AM  
The unskewed polls guy has a statistically significant higher number of chins than Nate Silver.
 
2012-10-27 11:26:11 AM  

randomjsa: So liberals are saying Obama is going to lose in 2012? Because if Rasmussen is correct...


actually conservatives are saying Nate Silver isn't reliable because he's thin and not as manly as them.

I think if I were a conservative shill, and I saw that kind of pathetic BS I'd talk about something else.

how about you?
 
2012-10-27 11:26:29 AM  
unskewedpolls makes the following prediction:

Minnesota: 51-47 Romney -- this will surprise many

This is so completely delusional I don't know where to begin.
 
2012-10-27 11:26:42 AM  
a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice that sounds almost exactly like the "Mr. New Castrati" voice used by Rush Limbaugh on his program. In fact, Silver could easily be the poster child for the New Castrati in both image and sound.

i236.photobucket.com

THIS IS WHAT REPUBLICANS ACTUALLY BELIEVE
 
2012-10-27 11:27:01 AM  
To paraphrase Dick Cheney, I believe the GOP is in their last throes.
 
2012-10-27 11:27:15 AM  

bugontherug: Okay cons, pay attention. Below, you'll find links to Real Conservative Propaganda's "no swing state" electoral map, which distributes the map according to who they say is currently leading in each state's polls. And to Karl Rove's own electoral map.

You'll notice that Real Conservative Propaganda's map doesn't look all that different from Nate Silver's. And if you distributed Karl Rove's map according to who currently leads in each state, you'd see Obama wins it too.

Link

Link

Nate Silver really isn't spinning anything. He's just taking into account more data, and weighing it according to a wider variety of empirically demonstrable factors, than any of the other sites--which also say Obama is leading.


Pretty much this.

Right the the 'groundswell' of support for Romney is the Republican base trying to make a half-hearted attempt to back their candidate. That way when Romney loses, they can deflect any questions that come back to their enthusiasm. The reality is that the Republican base had a few months to either back Romney or piss about, and they did the latter. It's on their hatred of Obama (and nonwhite people) that is really pushing this pathetic horserace narrative.
 
2012-10-27 11:27:33 AM  

Frederick: Osomatic: Frederick: log_jammin: Yeah. If Obama wins, they'll wake up the next day angry at the world but will never consider the possibility they were lied to and lied to them selves. I don't get how people go through life like that.

It's a baffling phenomenon to me; the people who can successfully lie to themselves. In my experience there is a correlation between those people and early life religious indoctrination.

You may have something there, but... what about people who get no religious indoctrination? We've been raising our child as, basically, "nothing." We're not religious, but we don't say religious people are bad. We tell him that it's up to him what to believe without telling him what we (his mom and I) believe, which is, well, nothing. When he came back from his pre-school filled with ideas about God, we said "well, that's what some people believe." I like to think we're raising him to create his own beliefs, but... sometimes I wonder. We've also tried to show him and talk to him about what science says, without being dogmatic about it. I fear we may have been a bit dogmatic about stuff like psychics and astrology, though. But I feel okay about that, really. That stuff is just stupid - I don't think anybody would consider us to be "indoctrinating" him if we warned him off of false advertising, for instance. Still, we've done our very best to be hands-off with religion.

And I guess I wonder... this is a *really* smart kid, but one who has been actually diagnosed with at least mild ADD or ADHD... what is he going to end up believing? I wish I knew. We tried so hard to just leave it open but I'm not sure we succeeded.

When as a kid I began to question obvious flaws in the Christian bible and other seemingly bright kids around me were not, I made note of it. I never understood how they could reconcile logical flaws with religious dogma.

I was raised in a similar environment to your son. Both my parents grew up in the church and then had a falling out (mother = Italian Catholic / father = German Lutheran). Religion was always by my choice only. I attended a Christian bible school by choice, and quit going by my choice. I attended mass sometimes and youth group because I liked the kids who went to that church. Ultimately I chose to eschew religion and I claim agnostic.

But I can tell you there are cons to being agnostic or religiously void. I feel I am by nature a spiritual person, and I never found a satisfactory outlet for that spirituality. And the older I get the more I feel like I'm missing that outlet.

\I'm sure what I've said was less then helpful -sorry


Check out the Unitarian-Universalists. With them you get the church-like community and spirituality without the dogma.

Or look into Buddhism. You don't have to buy into the reincarnation or other stuff like that to benefit.
 
2012-10-27 11:27:34 AM  
Wow, these guys really need to pick a stance on this issue, it's getting significantly more ridiculous than the rest of their new 'All Over the Place' platform.

One day they're writing dreck like this where Silver is every "liberal" that Ann Coulter sees hiding under her bed, rolled into one. The next, he points to a pro-Romney bump, and he's suddenly a 'political genius, the likes of which this world has never known'. I mean, I get it and all, 'flip-flopping' is the new 'consistent' for the Right, but this is taking it to a ridiculous extreme.

And implying that he's possibly a 'Secret Homersexsh'ull'? That's where you're going with this? Really?
 
2012-10-27 11:28:42 AM  
Add "thin guys" to the List of people conspiring against GOP and therefore America
 
2012-10-27 11:28:57 AM  

gingerjet: I don't get it. All one has to do is wait until the election to see if Nate is correct or not. Why all the butthurt now?


Because there is money to be made now selling derp to those who desperately want to be lied to in an attempt to validate their tragically flawed world view.
 
2012-10-27 11:29:40 AM  

theinsultabot9000:
well, its not that this was a close race, was the narrative they have been going with and were still kind of on yesterday, it was Romney has managed to lock it pretty well down, that momentum is hard to shift far enough 11 days out to matter, so how should Obama spend his last 10 days in office. It kind of surprised me because generally I hold their journalistic integrity in fairly high regard. actually made me wonder if maybe I was allowing myself to be deluded. still, I also trust Nate Silver so...

well, its not that this was a close race, was the narrative they have been going with and were still kind of on yesterday, it wa ...


Even if Obama loses, he still has 3 1/2 months left in office, not 10 days. Plus, Obama 2016, after Romney screws up as much as he seems to want to.
 
2012-10-27 11:30:08 AM  

gingerjet: I don't get it. All one has to do is wait until the election to see if Nate is correct or not. Why all the butthurt now?


Are you familiar with the term "lashing out in blind rage?"
 
2012-10-27 11:31:41 AM  

simplicimus: theinsultabot9000:
well, its not that this was a close race, was the narrative they have been going with and were still kind of on yesterday, it was Romney has managed to lock it pretty well down, that momentum is hard to shift far enough 11 days out to matter, so how should Obama spend his last 10 days in office. It kind of surprised me because generally I hold their journalistic integrity in fairly high regard. actually made me wonder if maybe I was allowing myself to be deluded. still, I also trust Nate Silver so...

well, its not that this was a close race, was the narrative they have been going with and were still kind of on yesterday, it wa ...

Even if Obama loses, he still has 3 1/2 months left in office, not 10 days. Plus, Obama 2016, after Romney screws up as much as he seems to want to.


that was probably my poor phrasing, not theirs, the bigger idea being how should he spend is last 10 days of the fight for the white house.

also, Obama 2016 seems considerably less likely then Hillary 2016, even if Obama loses
 
2012-10-27 11:32:01 AM  
When I compare Nate Silver's analysis with that article, let me tell you, it's definitely Nate Silver that comes off as partisan.
 
2012-10-27 11:32:15 AM  
Considering the typical projection of right wingnuts, I'm willing to bet that the unskewed polls guy wants to sit on a few unskewed poles.
 
2012-10-27 11:32:24 AM  

SundaesChild: MorrisBird: log_jammin: wow.

To be fair, he's on pain medication. His pelvis is broken in 6 places.

Definitely a good time to hit him up for that raise, while he is still woozy from the drugs.


Probably a better time to nudge him down the stairs.....

/oops
 
2012-10-27 11:34:26 AM  

theinsultabot9000: simplicimus: theinsultabot9000:
well, its not that this was a close race, was the narrative they have been going with and were still kind of on yesterday, it was Romney has managed to lock it pretty well down, that momentum is hard to shift far enough 11 days out to matter, so how should Obama spend his last 10 days in office. It kind of surprised me because generally I hold their journalistic integrity in fairly high regard. actually made me wonder if maybe I was allowing myself to be deluded. still, I also trust Nate Silver so...

well, its not that this was a close race, was the narrative they have been going with and were still kind of on yesterday, it wa ...

Even if Obama loses, he still has 3 1/2 months left in office, not 10 days. Plus, Obama 2016, after Romney screws up as much as he seems to want to.

that was probably my poor phrasing, not theirs, the bigger idea being how should he spend is last 10 days of the fight for the white house.

also, Obama 2016 seems considerably less likely then Hillary 2016, even if Obama loses


It's been done once before, where the incumbent lost and was re-elected 4 years later
 
2012-10-27 11:36:47 AM  

Doc Daneeka: log_jammin: I have a feeling we will never hear anything else about "UnSkewedPolls.com" after November.

I don't know. I thought the same thing about hillaryis44.com back in 2008, and yet they're still kicking around.


Did they at least renamed to hilaryis45.com?

Autocorrect wants to change hilaryis to bipartisan. That's hilarious.
 
2012-10-27 11:36:56 AM  
Check out the new Obama Humor pages at UnSkewedPolls.com.

Finally! Something funny on the Internet. I don't know someone hasn't done this before. Knowing conservatives like I do, I bet these pages are high-frickin' larious!
 
2012-10-27 11:38:10 AM  
i.imgur.com
 
2012-10-27 11:38:50 AM  
unskewedpolls.com?
Is this like Fox: "Fair and Balanced"

Or all the right wing posters I see online with names including the words "Truth" "Reality" "Objective"

Being "honest", "fair", and "balanced" is kinda like being in charge. If you have to constantly remind people of who you are, then you aren't who you think you are.
 
2012-10-27 11:39:04 AM  
I know, I dont think he can beat Hillary again in a primary though.

Hell, I live in texas and I shiat you not, even some of my teabagging Obama is a Muslim Limbaugh snorting friends and relatives that have flat out stated they would vote for Hillary if she was on the ticket even if it was democratic.

her approval rating is said to be like, low 60s and from what I hear from redneck derpers who still love her I actually think that may be under representing her actual score.
 
2012-10-27 11:39:48 AM  

simplicimus: Anyone know if Nate has ever responded to the numerous attacks against him?


Why would he bother? He's too busy working out new ways to throw the election to Obama, right?
 
2012-10-27 11:40:47 AM  

miscreant: When I compare Nate Silver's analysis with that article, let me tell you, it's definitely Nate Silver that comes off as non-partisan.


Since neither us provide a shred of reasoning or data backing these conjectures, they cancel out perfectly let me tell you.
 
2012-10-27 11:41:34 AM  

MrBallou: On a slight tangent, it looks like Team Obama may have played it right in terms of letting Rmoney peak early.

[i49.tinypic.com image 433x302] 

The reservoir tip broke and probably won't close up again.


MrBallou: On a slight tangent, it looks like Team Obama may have played it right in terms of letting Rmoney peak early.

[i49.tinypic.com image 433x302] 

The reservoir tip broke and probably won't close up again.


img.photobucket.com
 
2012-10-27 11:42:21 AM  

theinsultabot9000: I know, I dont think he can beat Hillary again in a primary though.

Hell, I live in texas and I shiat you not, even some of my teabagging Obama is a Muslim Limbaugh snorting friends and relatives that have flat out stated they would vote for Hillary if she was on the ticket even if it was democratic.

her approval rating is said to be like, low 60s and from what I hear from redneck derpers who still love her I actually think that may be under representing her actual score.


"Hey guys, if Obama had to face off against Hilary again, he would LOSE!"

"What does that matter? Obama is already the farking president and is on his way to a second term. Are you just fading back into madness because Santorum got paid off and Romney bought his way into the candidacy, only to fark it up again and again?"

"Hilary would SOOOO WASTE HIM."
 
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