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(Denver Post)   Worst.Swing.State.Ever   (denverpost.com) divider line 12
    More: Interesting, President Obama, Michael Bennet, young voters, Colorado, swing vote, republican presidential candidates  
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5097 clicks; posted to Politics » on 25 Oct 2012 at 10:13 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-25 01:58:33 AM
2 votes:

themindiswatching: Like I've said before, I think Obama's going to end up losing almost all the swing states this time.

/he'll barely pull off the 270+ by winning Ohio and a couple of others though.


Nate Silver's model disagrees. The only "swing states" he has Obama losing are Florida and Virginia.
2012-10-25 03:12:33 PM
1 votes:

firefly212: GanjSmokr: firefly212: I think Obama will win here... not because he's more popular, but because the LV model excludes many young voters who could give two craps about Obama, but will likely vote for him at the same time they vote for the State Constitutional Amendment requiring the state to treat marijuana in the same manner as it does alcohol.

Why wouldn't those people vote for someone who is for stopping the war on drugs (Johnson) instead of voting for someone who has no issues with continuing it (Obama/Romney)?

Because throwing away a vote on Johnson is tantamount to helping Romney. The parties aren't all the same, and if you think going 3p helps, then thanks for the Bush years when we could have had Gore... that was a trillion dollars in Iraq well spent.


AFAIC, a vote for someone you don't agree with is a wasted vote and a vote for the lesser of 2 evils is still a vote for evil.

If one of the 2 "choices" can't convince me to vote for them, that's their own damned fault - not the fault of a 3rd party that I actually AGREE with.
2012-10-25 11:00:48 AM
1 votes:
Well, as a Coloradan, Obama's getting my vote. I am filling out my ballot this weekend.

I have a theory that since the Republicans are thought of in CW as being the party of rich, snobs with money, that some people think it is a "status symbol" to vote Republican despite it being contrary to their best interests. It's kind of like the people who run around with expensive Coach or LV purses, but they don't have a job with benefits or own a car. Or they have an iphone which they pull out at Walmart while buying groceries with food stamps.
2012-10-25 10:48:22 AM
1 votes:

The Great EZE: Okay, which one of you posted the second newest comment (with the list) in TFA?


You mean:

None of the reasons why I am voting for Romney were ever discussed in the debates...
Here is why I am going to vote for Mr. Romney...

1) He has no old friends from the 60's that were terrorist that blew up Government buildings.
2) He has no friends, family, employees or preachers in his life that are sworn Communist.
3) He has never hung a bulb on a Christmas tree that had Mao's likeness on it.
4) He has no friends, family or former acquaintances that were or are members of La Raza.
5) He has no friends, family or church affiliation that believes Social Justice is superior to individual responsibility.
6) He actually goes to church... Ever seen Obama take his wife and kids to a real church?
7) He will never bow down to a man wearing a diaper on his head!
8) He will not appoint someone like Eric Holder for Attorney General. His attorney general will actually prosecute whites and blacks fairly.
9) He understands how to do due diligence before investing in a company that is already bankrupt.
10) He knows that Big Government IS the problem, NOT the answer to our problems.

Seems pretty cut and dry to me...
2012-10-25 10:45:04 AM
1 votes:

cameroncrazy1984: themindiswatching: Like I've said before, I think Obama's going to end up losing almost all the swing states this time.

/he'll barely pull off the 270+ by winning Ohio and a couple of others though.

Nate Silver's model disagrees. The only "swing states" he has Obama losing are Florida and Virginia.


I agree with your post in principal. The model explicitly says a 20+ EV advantage at the moment. But it would be more accurate to say that the only swing state Obama losing in the model is FL. VA and CO are effectively coin flips at this point. But the fact that he has IA, NH, NV is a good thing indeed. I've become desensitized to the other "swing states". They have been so solidly in one camp or the other so long that it is hard to even recognize them as a swing state at all. (NC, WI, MI, PA)
2012-10-25 10:38:37 AM
1 votes:
Already voted.

/voted to legalize
2012-10-25 10:37:30 AM
1 votes:
Buuu buuuuut Nate Silver!
2012-10-25 10:33:50 AM
1 votes:
Amendment 64 will get the liberals out to vote in CO.
2012-10-25 02:11:03 AM
1 votes:

themindiswatching: cameroncrazy1984: Nate Silver's model disagrees. The only "swing states" he has Obama losing are Florida and Virginia.

I dunno. It's not going to take into account GOP election shenanigans and Citizen's United (though the latter would probably be reflected in the polling). Polling doesn't seem to have gotten better since the second and third debates, only stopped getting worse.


Yeah, but he's never been projected to be below 280 electoral votes and in fact is projected to get 290 at this point.

If it failed to take into account "GOP election shenanigans" why wasn't it way off in 2008? Did the GOP take the year off?

Additionally, early voting right now is turning out to be as good or nearly so as 2008 especially in Ohio.
2012-10-25 02:09:47 AM
1 votes:

themindiswatching: I dunno. It's not going to take into account GOP election shenanigans and Citizen's United (though the latter would probably be reflected in the polling). Polling doesn't seem to have gotten better since the second and third debates, only stopped getting worse.


Obama is slightly trending up this week in basically every poll, but it's barely noticable
2012-10-25 02:01:21 AM
1 votes:

cameroncrazy1984: Nate Silver's model disagrees. The only "swing states" he has Obama losing are Florida and Virginia.


I dunno. It's not going to take into account GOP election shenanigans and Citizen's United (though the latter would probably be reflected in the polling). Polling doesn't seem to have gotten better since the second and third debates, only stopped getting worse.
2012-10-25 01:42:49 AM
1 votes:
Like I've said before, I think Obama's going to end up losing almost all the swing states this time.

/he'll barely pull off the 270+ by winning Ohio and a couple of others though.
 
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