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(Columbus Dispatch)   Been wondering why Romney is falling behind in Ohio? These numbers might help. No matter how much he's trying to sell "bleak", it's just not happening, and the people of Ohio see it   (dispatch.com) divider line 197
    More: Cool, Ohio, seasonal variation, labor force, discouraged worker, Ohio Counties, Delaware County  
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4348 clicks; posted to Politics » on 24 Oct 2012 at 12:14 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-24 10:29:21 AM
I'm starting to be really worried that Obama might win Ohio and still lose the election. Irrational, I know.
 
2012-10-24 10:38:29 AM
Nothing is certain, for sure, but OH increasingly looks in the bag for Obama. Even with the debate bump, Romney has never been able to really break through there this cycle. Part of it is the GOP party albatross around his neck (see Akin, Todd, et al), but the biggest part is the auto bailout. Period.

TPM had a good piece about this yesterday. The auto bailout is really a gut check moment for OH voters, and the difference could not be plainer. One guy braved the backlash and came to the rescue (and it paid off handsomely); the other took the expedient way out and said 'let them die'. If Romney loses OH, you could reasonably point to the bailout as the singular issue that did him in there.
 
2012-10-24 10:42:40 AM

DamnYankees: I'm starting to be really worried that Obama might win Ohio and still lose the election. Irrational, I know.


Considering that's almost statistically impossible, yes I believe it is irrational.
 
2012-10-24 10:45:30 AM

WTF Indeed: DamnYankees: I'm starting to be really worried that Obama might win Ohio and still lose the election. Irrational, I know.

Considering that's almost statistically impossible, yes I believe it is irrational.


While its not likely, here's how it could happen:

Romney wins WI, CO, VA, IA, FL
Obama wins OH, NH, NV

Romney wins 273-265

Not saying its likely, but that map is possible.
 
2012-10-24 10:57:29 AM

DamnYankees: I'm starting to be really worried that Obama might win Ohio and still lose the election. Irrational, I know.


It's never happened before. You read the Times excellent election blog?

538
 
2012-10-24 10:58:19 AM

DamnYankees: WTF Indeed: DamnYankees: I'm starting to be really worried that Obama might win Ohio and still lose the election. Irrational, I know.

Considering that's almost statistically impossible, yes I believe it is irrational.

While its not likely, here's how it could happen:

Romney wins WI, CO, VA, IA, FL
Obama wins OH, NH, NV

Romney wins 273-265

Not saying its likely, but that map is possible.


Yep, technically possible, but highly unlikely - even by 538's models. The way I see it, if Obama can hold OH and WI, he only needs IA or NV to win, and Nevada looks all but locked up, based on early voter trends, and some "anonymous" comments from GOP staffers privately conceding NV. With any combination of these three, Obama can even lose NH and still win.
 
2012-10-24 10:58:34 AM
Who owns the voting machines used in Ohio?

Yeah. Obama isn't going to win Ohio. There's no chance.
 
2012-10-24 10:58:52 AM
Never happened, in that no Republican has ever won if he lost Ohio. Democrats have, but never a Republican.
 
2012-10-24 11:01:42 AM

Speaker2Animals: Never happened, in that no Republican has ever won if he lost Ohio. Democrats have, but never a Republican.


This really doesn't matter. There's always some "X has never happened before" in every election which happens.
 
2012-10-24 11:06:51 AM

DamnYankees: There's always some "X has never happened before" in every election which happens.


Up until 2008, no black guy had ever won.
 
2012-10-24 11:20:54 AM

DamnYankees: This really doesn't matter. There's always some "X has never happened before" in every election which happens.


It's all true. But I don't see him somehow winning Ohio and losing Wisconsin. It's just not likely, is all.
 
2012-10-24 11:28:05 AM
I can't wait till Obama wins re-election, and DamnYankees finds something to be Eeyore about.
 
2012-10-24 11:30:55 AM

Aarontology: I can't wait till Obama wins re-election, and DamnYankees finds something to be Eeyore about.


LOL.
 
2012-10-24 11:31:22 AM

Angry Drunk Bureaucrat: DamnYankees: There's always some "X has never happened before" in every election which happens.

Up until 2008, no black guy had ever won.



Had a Dem won without Tennesee before Obama?  Someone I trust said that, but I don't know where to look it up.
 
2012-10-24 11:31:39 AM

Aarontology: I can't wait till Obama wins re-election, and DamnYankees finds something to be Eeyore about.


You will find no one more ecstatic than me.
 
2012-10-24 11:33:42 AM

DamnYankees: Aarontology: I can't wait till Obama wins re-election, and DamnYankees finds something to be Eeyore about.

You will find no one more ecstatic than me.


Fox News might be more ecstatic.
 
2012-10-24 11:35:41 AM

I_C_Weener: Angry Drunk Bureaucrat: DamnYankees: There's always some "X has never happened before" in every election which happens.

Up until 2008, no black guy had ever won.


Had a Dem won without Tennesee before Obama?  Someone I trust said that, but I don't know where to look it up.


Kennedy won without TN.
 
2012-10-24 11:36:17 AM

Vodka Zombie: Fox News might be more ecstatic.


Don't forget Rush.
 
2012-10-24 11:55:51 AM

Angry Drunk Bureaucrat: I_C_Weener: Angry Drunk Bureaucrat: DamnYankees: There's always some "X has never happened before" in every election which happens.

Up until 2008, no black guy had ever won.


Had a Dem won without Tennesee before Obama?  Someone I trust said that, but I don't know where to look it up.

Kennedy won without TN.



That answers it.
 
2012-10-24 11:56:46 AM
imgs.xkcd.com
 
2012-10-24 12:18:35 PM

DamnYankees: WTF Indeed: DamnYankees: I'm starting to be really worried that Obama might win Ohio and still lose the election. Irrational, I know.

Considering that's almost statistically impossible, yes I believe it is irrational.

While its not likely, here's how it could happen:

Romney wins WI, CO, VA, IA, FL
Obama wins OH, NH, NV

Romney wins 273-265

Not saying its likely, but that map is possible.


Brother, you are getting nuts with this.
 
2012-10-24 12:19:20 PM
OH, WI, and IA and its game over, see you in January.

Heck, if Obama somehow takes VA again, you can all but wrap it up there.
 
2012-10-24 12:19:40 PM

Grand_Moff_Joseph: Nothing is certain, for sure, but OH increasingly looks in the bag for Obama. Even with the debate bump, Romney has never been able to really break through there this cycle. Part of it is the GOP party albatross around his neck (see Akin, Todd, et al), but the biggest part is the auto bailout. Period.

TPM had a good piece about this yesterday. The auto bailout is really a gut check moment for OH voters, and the difference could not be plainer. One guy braved the backlash and came to the rescue (and it paid off handsomely); the other took the expedient way out and said 'let them die'. If Romney loses OH, you could reasonably point to the bailout as the singular issue that did him in there.


Definitely. Auto bailout --> Obama wins Ohio --> Obama wins electoral college

You could've gotten pretty damn long odds on the auto bailout eventually winning the '12 election for Oabama back in '09.
 
2012-10-24 12:20:45 PM
It's good to be the king(maker).
 
2012-10-24 12:21:57 PM
Love it. The people of Ohio need to keep it up, though. 13 days is more than enough time to program a message into a people if it's repeated enough. But if Ohio keeps its collective mind on the facts Obama should win it.

Hell, if AMERICA kept its mind on the facts Obama would win the electoral college 312-226.
 
2012-10-24 12:24:51 PM

Speaker2Animals: Never happened, in that no Republican has ever won if he lost Ohio. Democrats have, but never a Republican.


imgs.xkcd.com
 
2012-10-24 12:25:08 PM

The Great EZE: Love it. The people of Ohio need to keep it up, though. 13 days is more than enough time to program a message into a people if it's repeated enough. But if Ohio keeps its collective mind on the facts Obama should win it.

Hell, if AMERICA kept its mind on the facts Obama would win the electoral college 312-226.


Or 538-0.
 
2012-10-24 12:25:33 PM

Vodka Zombie: Who owns the voting machines used in Ohio?

Yeah. Obama isn't going to win Ohio. There's no chance.


That and the majority of the early votes (likely going D big time) will somehow end up "lost"
 
2012-10-24 12:26:17 PM
What the heck? I read like 10 post and no mention of rigged numbers? Teabaggers are losing their touch already?
 
2012-10-24 12:26:37 PM

DamnYankees: WTF Indeed: DamnYankees: I'm starting to be really worried that Obama might win Ohio and still lose the election. Irrational, I know.

Considering that's almost statistically impossible, yes I believe it is irrational.

While its not likely, here's how it could happen:

Romney wins WI, CO, VA, IA, FL
Obama wins OH, NH, NV

Romney wins 273-265

Not saying its likely, but that map is possible.


No Republican has won the Presidency without winning Ohio.

So Romney would have to break a bellwether indicator that has existed since Ohio became part of the union.
 
2012-10-24 12:27:57 PM

gilgigamesh: DamnYankees: WTF Indeed: DamnYankees: I'm starting to be really worried that Obama might win Ohio and still lose the election. Irrational, I know.

Considering that's almost statistically impossible, yes I believe it is irrational.

While its not likely, here's how it could happen:

Romney wins WI, CO, VA, IA, FL
Obama wins OH, NH, NV

Romney wins 273-265

Not saying its likely, but that map is possible.

Brother, you are getting nuts with this.


I can understand his fear. Had Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004 never happened, we wouldn't be having this conversation. Also, that just means we got to go out there and cast our vote. No questions asked.
 
2012-10-24 12:28:57 PM

DamnYankees: I'm starting to be really worried that Obama might win Ohio and still lose the election. Irrational, I know.


Obama winning Ohio but losing the popular vote is more likely, IMHO. If he wins Ohio and Nevada (Latinos will push him over the top in Nevada guaranteed), he can lose NH, CO, IO, VA, FL, and NC and still win the election.
 
2012-10-24 12:29:08 PM

Vodka Zombie: Who owns the voting machines used in Ohio?

Yeah. Obama isn't going to win Ohio. There's no chance.


Depends on the margin of victory, both in Ohio's popular vote and the nationwide electoral vote.

If Obama leads Ohio's popular vote by more than the margin of error, he'll win, since that'll be too great of a difference to be Diebolded in Romney's favor without the whole world knowing that the GOP committed election fraud. Plus, if Obama's leading by enough electoral votes that he could lose Ohio and still win, they're not even gonna TRY to fudge the numbers.
 
2012-10-24 12:29:25 PM
Unemployment is down here in Cincinnati too. The only way Romney wins ohio now is, is through voter suppression.
 
2012-10-24 12:31:06 PM

Geotpf: DamnYankees: I'm starting to be really worried that Obama might win Ohio and still lose the election. Irrational, I know.

Obama winning Ohio but losing the popular vote is more likely, IMHO. If he wins Ohio and Nevada (Latinos will push him over the top in Nevada guaranteed), he can lose NH, CO, IO, VA, FL, and NC and still win the election.


Assuming he wins WI, yes.
 
2012-10-24 12:31:10 PM
I don't get the whole argument about "Republicans have never lost X but won the election"

Remember when Missouri and Delaware were the bellwether states for the whole election because they'd gone with the winner every year since 1960? Then in 2000 they split (MO went to Bush, DE went to Gore), and the cable news on-air personalities were flipping out about how this is never happened before and how everything they ever knew about elections suddenly went out the window.

Demographics change. The fact that we're talking about Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina (well not so much NC anymore) as bubble states shows you that both parties need to constantly re-assess their approach.

As it stands, Obama is pretty much guaranteed 237 electoral votes, and Romney is basically guaranteed 180, meaning that Obama needs to string together 33 more votes to get to 270. Since it looks more and more like Romney will take FL and NC, we'll give him those 44 ECs, bringing him to 224, and meaning that he only needs 46 electoral votes to take the election.

When you look at the rest of the map, Ohio is vital more for its 18 electoral votes than it is for any historical reasons. If Obama takes Ohio, he has about a million ways to win the election. He could theoretically lose all the remaining big states (VA, AZ, WI, CO) and take all the small ones (NV, NH, IA). Although that's unlikely, what it really means is that he basically just needs 2 more states, as long as at least one is a bigger state.
 
2012-10-24 12:31:33 PM

DamnYankees: WTF Indeed: DamnYankees: I'm starting to be really worried that Obama might win Ohio and still lose the election. Irrational, I know.

Considering that's almost statistically impossible, yes I believe it is irrational.

While its not likely, here's how it could happen:

Romney wins WI, CO, VA, IA, FL
Obama wins OH, NH, NV

Romney wins 273-265

Not saying its likely, but that map is possible.


Romney will not win Wisconsin though. It's fairly safe for Obama.
 
2012-10-24 12:32:01 PM

SuperT: Unemployment is down here in Cincinnati too. The only way Romney wins ohio now is, is through voter suppression.


so still game on in Ohio...
 
2012-10-24 12:33:14 PM
Except in reality Obama isn't pulling away in Ohio, he's barely ahead or dead tied.

I'm just curious if Rasmussen, the organization Fark liberals said 'was wrong until close to the election, then they change their numbers to match everyone else', is right yet... is it close enough?

Because according to liberals, Obama had better get that concession speech ready.

Then again if he gets reelected he's going to be impeached over Benghazi.
 
2012-10-24 12:33:37 PM

HMS_Blinkin: Romney will not win Wisconsin though. It's fairly safe for Obama.


538 has Obama at 81% to win WI and 70% to win OH. So its not that much safer.
 
2012-10-24 12:35:05 PM

randomjsa: Except in reality Obama isn't pulling away in Ohio, he's barely ahead or dead tied...



Without even looking at the latest numbers, this post alone tells me Obama is up by a comfortable margin in Ohio.
 
2012-10-24 12:35:08 PM

King Something: Vodka Zombie: Who owns the voting machines used in Ohio?

Yeah. Obama isn't going to win Ohio. There's no chance.

Depends on the margin of victory, both in Ohio's popular vote and the nationwide electoral vote.

If Obama leads Ohio's popular vote by more than the margin of error, he'll win, since that'll be too great of a difference to be Diebolded in Romney's favor without the whole world knowing that the GOP committed election fraud. Plus, if Obama's leading by enough electoral votes that he could lose Ohio and still win, they're not even gonna TRY to fudge the numbers.


And based upon early voter information, Obama has an 80,000+ vote lead in Ohio. (over 800,000 early votes so far, Obama up by double-digit margins)
 
2012-10-24 12:35:38 PM

SuperT: Unemployment is down here in Cincinnati too. The only way Romney wins ohio now is, is through voter suppression.


They failed at that too.

Early voters are splitting 60% to Obama.

They can't be so stupid as to "lose" the ballots from early voting, can they?
 
2012-10-24 12:36:12 PM
5.7% unemployment? Damn, that's pretty farking close to full employment. Things really are looking up.
 
2012-10-24 12:36:23 PM

sonnyboy11: randomjsa: Except in reality Obama isn't pulling away in Ohio, he's barely ahead or dead tied...



Without even looking at the latest numbers, this post alone tells me Obama is up by a comfortable margin in Ohio.


Yup.
 
2012-10-24 12:37:07 PM

sonnyboy11: randomjsa: Except in reality Obama isn't pulling away in Ohio, he's barely ahead or dead tied...



Without even looking at the latest numbers, this post alone tells me Obama is up by a comfortable margin in Ohio.


See also 'the debate was a tie'
 
2012-10-24 12:37:36 PM

Jim_Tressel's_O-Face: OH, WI, and IA and its game over, see you in January.

Heck, if Obama somehow takes VA again, you can all but wrap it up there.


Although everyone appears to believe NC is in the bag for Romney, internal state polls show the two candidates are much, much closer than the statewide polls indicate. If NC is close, I expect VA and some other states
 
2012-10-24 12:37:54 PM

imontheinternet: It's good to be the king(maker).


Damn straight.

The Ohio GOP isn't terribly popular right now anyway. Josh Mandel is getting his ass handed to him, John Husted took in the butt from the Supreme Court, Kasich just privatized the turnpike, much to the dismay of just about everyone and Issue 2 will probably pass.

They're clowns, and not particularly competent ones.
 
2012-10-24 12:38:22 PM

DamnYankees: HMS_Blinkin: Romney will not win Wisconsin though. It's fairly safe for Obama.

538 has Obama at 81% to win WI and 70% to win OH. So its not that much safer.


I now have you farkied as "DOOOOMYankees".
 
2012-10-24 12:38:36 PM

DamnYankees: I'm starting to be really worried that Obama might win Ohio and still lose the election. Irrational, I know.


I worry something of the same, although my concern is voter/vote suppression. There are quite a few states that seem to be toss-ups even a couple weeks away from the election. It seems as though Obama will win the Electoral college but I really wonder if all the votes in all the states will be counted accurately (including absentee/early votes), showing a much weaker support for Obama and the Democrats than is actually true.

I'm not gonna cry fraud before any news reports actually come in. I just get real uncomfortable thinking about Diebold, inconsistent supply of voting machines, stupid Maricopa county shenanigans, and so forth.
 
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