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(Marginal Revolution)   For about $1,250 it is evidently possible to manipulate InTrade   (marginalrevolution.com) divider line 2
    More: Interesting, independent expenditures, Monobloc engine, underweight, prediction markets, Fe C, swing states, day trading, election days  
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2044 clicks; posted to Politics » on 24 Oct 2012 at 10:11 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-24 10:20:20 AM
1 votes:

shower_in_my_socks: More Farkers should know about this site. 538 gets a lot of attention (justifiably), but the Princeton Election Consortium has an even more impressive track record. For example:

"In 2004, on Election Eve, the median was Bush 286 EV, Kerry 252 EV - the exact outcome. In 2008, we predicted Obama 364 EV, McCain 174 EV - just 1 EV off from the final outcome of Obama 365 EV."

Right now, they predict an Obama win, 290 EV to 248.


I have been following Princeton from time to time. They seem to bring a great deal of academic (non-partisan) rigor to their methodology.

The bolded part of your post has made my day.
2012-10-24 02:25:18 AM
1 votes:
Also, the bit about InTrade is at the bottom of the linked article. They add "This morning's swing toward Romney was caused by one trader's manipulation."

I think someone somewhere else posted that somebody bet like $17k on Romney, and InTrade's numbers moved like 15 or 20 points.
 
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