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(The New York Times)   After the last debate, it seems the undecided have decided, according to the first polls   (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) divider line 88
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5286 clicks; posted to Politics » on 23 Oct 2012 at 10:39 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2012-10-23 10:27:55 AM
There have been no polls since the debate. Calm down.
 
2012-10-23 10:37:39 AM
 
2012-10-23 10:42:43 AM
Spoiler alert:


Obama is gonna win.
 
2012-10-23 10:44:32 AM

indylaw: Spoiler alert:


Obama is gonna win.


Only if you believe in 90% chances.
 
2012-10-23 10:44:44 AM

DamnYankees: There have been no polls since the debate. Calm down.


Exactly.

It's gonna be a squeaker.

// like subby's mom
 
2012-10-23 10:44:57 AM
Here is the most germaine point in TFA: A Public Policy Polling survey of voters in 11 swing states who watched the debate found them giving it to Mr. Obama, 53 percent to 42 percent.

Suck it libs teatards.
 
2012-10-23 10:45:44 AM
If the San Francisco Giants can comeback and win every playoff series this season, Romney has a shot of coming back in the last two weeks.

Don't count him out.
 
2012-10-23 10:47:31 AM
These numbers are back to being part of the liberal media conspiracy so they can't be trusted.
 
2012-10-23 10:47:37 AM

Funk Brothers: If the San Francisco Giants can comeback and win every playoff series this season, Romney has a shot of coming back in the last two weeks.

Don't count him out.


It's a matter of logistics. Can the GOP shred enough voter registration forms in time?
 
2012-10-23 10:48:58 AM
So, people whose minds weren't made up before the last debate suddenly changed them after a night of the candidates tripping over each other to say how much they agree with the other's foreign policy positions?

Really?
 
2012-10-23 10:49:01 AM
The undecided voters that I have met all have the same thing in common - Absolute ignorance of either candidates position and no clue of anything that has been going on.

Examples:

I was asked by my personal trainer last week, "So I hear Obama is a Muslim, then I hear he isn't. What's the deal? Is he a Muslim or something."
The question was sincere* but how farking clueless can a person be?

Was told by another friend that Obamacare REQUIRES all hospitals, even Catholic hospitals to provide abortions.

And a co-irker didn't know that Rmoney's Romneycare was a blueprint for evil Obamacare.

And THESE folks will be deciding the next President!



*gave me a good opportunity to educate her.
 
2012-10-23 10:49:33 AM

Funk Brothers: If the San Francisco Giants can comeback and win every playoff series this season, Romney has a shot of coming back in the last two weeks.


To be fair, Romney isn't playing the Cardinals.
 
2012-10-23 10:49:35 AM

Cuthbert Allgood: It's gonna be a squeaker.


do you really believe this? Really? The media has done its job then.
 
2012-10-23 10:49:58 AM

Funk Brothers: If the San Francisco Giants can comeback and win every playoff series this season, Romney has a shot of coming back in the last two weeks.

Don't count him out.


What's going to change in the next two weeks? We've had all the debates. No October Surprise spoiler has appeared, and we only have 8 days left. What is left that could shift the dynamics of the race? The next two weeks are going to consist of stump speeches and baby kissing. It would take Iran launching a surprise nuclear strike on Tel Aviv to shake things up.
 
2012-10-23 10:51:04 AM

RedT: The undecided voters that I have met all have the same thing in common - Absolute ignorance of either candidates position and no clue of anything that has been going on.

Examples:

I was asked by my personal trainer last week, "So I hear Obama is a Muslim, then I hear he isn't. What's the deal? Is he a Muslim or something."
The question was sincere* but how farking clueless can a person be?

Was told by another friend that Obamacare REQUIRES all hospitals, even Catholic hospitals to provide abortions.

And a co-irker didn't know that Rmoney's Romneycare was a blueprint for evil Obamacare.

And THESE folks will be deciding the next President!



*gave me a good opportunity to educate her.


The only way they could get this information (or not get this information) is by watching Fox News. You can't be that ignorant even sitting in a vacuum for the past 4 years.
 
2012-10-23 10:51:16 AM
I think it is safe to say that Obama is more likely than not going to win the election. The odds are in Obama's favor and likely won't change much without some massive gaffe at this point, but he doesn't have it entirely locked down into a foregone conclusion. Romney could win, it's just a lot less likely at this point (though still better than most any other time in his campaign).

The 538 model pretty much reflects this. As does Innitrade. Even if you fall into the silly group that thinks Nate Silver is some sort of partisan shill, Innitrade should be enough to support the impartiality. Invisible hand of the market doesn't lie.
 
2012-10-23 10:51:19 AM

Funk Brothers: If the San Francisco Giants can comeback and win every playoff series this season, Romney has a shot of coming back in the last two weeks.

Don't count him out.


totally the same

encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com
 
2012-10-23 10:51:51 AM

JusticeandIndependence: Cuthbert Allgood: It's gonna be a squeaker.

do you really believe this? Really? The media has done its job then.


I think the polls have show the GOP got an enthusiasm boost from the first debate. There's a lot of wingnuts in the country, and if every single one of them shows up to vote, it's going to be close. Remember 2010.
 
2012-10-23 10:58:23 AM

JollyMagistrate: I think it is safe to say that Obama is more likely than not going to win the election. The odds are in Obama's favor and likely won't change much without some massive gaffe at this point, but he doesn't have it entirely locked down into a foregone conclusion. Romney could win, it's just a lot less likely at this point (though still better than most any other time in his campaign).

The 538 model pretty much reflects this. As does Innitrade. Even if you fall into the silly group that thinks Nate Silver is some sort of partisan shill, Innitrade should be enough to support the impartiality. Invisible hand of the market doesn't lie.


Intrade only has Obama at 58.5% to win.

That's waaaay too close for comfort.
 
2012-10-23 10:59:18 AM

coeyagi: Here is the most germaine point in TFA: A Public Policy Polling survey of voters in 11 swing states who watched the debate found them giving it to Mr. Obama, 53 percent to 42 percent.

Suck it libs teatards.


Did they lump all 11 states together? Weren't we excoriating a poll that did that just last week?
 
2012-10-23 11:01:04 AM
As it stands now, knowing what we know now from polls, in 4 different elections Romney would win 1 of them.
 
2012-10-23 11:08:00 AM

indylaw: Spoiler alert:


Obama The landed gentry is gonna win.


FTFY.
 
2012-10-23 11:08:18 AM

indylaw: Funk Brothers: If the San Francisco Giants can comeback and win every playoff series this season, Romney has a shot of coming back in the last two weeks.

Don't count him out.

What's going to change in the next two weeks? We've had all the debates. No October Surprise spoiler has appeared, and we only have 8 days left. What is left that could shift the dynamics of the race? The next two weeks are going to consist of stump speeches and baby kissing. It would take Iran launching a surprise nuclear strike on Tel Aviv to shake things up.


Plus, how much of Ohio has voted already? This thing might already be over for all we know.
 
2012-10-23 11:08:41 AM

indylaw: Spoiler alert:


Obama is gonna win.


if the American people hadn't elected bush to a second term I would be more optimistic.
 
2012-10-23 11:10:53 AM

jasimo: JollyMagistrate: I think it is safe to say that Obama is more likely than not going to win the election. The odds are in Obama's favor and likely won't change much without some massive gaffe at this point, but he doesn't have it entirely locked down into a foregone conclusion. Romney could win, it's just a lot less likely at this point (though still better than most any other time in his campaign).

The 538 model pretty much reflects this. As does Innitrade. Even if you fall into the silly group that thinks Nate Silver is some sort of partisan shill, Innitrade should be enough to support the impartiality. Invisible hand of the market doesn't lie.

Intrade only has Obama at 58.5% to win.

That's waaaay too close for comfort.


That's a big drop in a week... Obama was at 67 ish just a week ago, what's the reason for the big drop?
 
2012-10-23 11:11:23 AM

rcantley: Funk Brothers: If the San Francisco Giants can comeback and win every playoff series this season, Romney has a shot of coming back in the last two weeks.

To be fair, Romney isn't playing the Cardinals.


Yeah, the analogy is more like Romney is the Sox playing Obama's Washington Nationals.
 
2012-10-23 11:11:27 AM

RedT: The undecided voters that I have met all have the same thing in common - Absolute ignorance of either candidates position and no clue of anything that has been going on.

Examples:

I was asked by my personal trainer last week, "So I hear Obama is a Muslim, then I hear he isn't. What's the deal? Is he a Muslim or something."
The question was sincere* but how farking clueless can a person be?

Was told by another friend that Obamacare REQUIRES all hospitals, even Catholic hospitals to provide abortions.

And a co-irker didn't know that Rmoney's Romneycare was a blueprint for evil Obamacare.

And THESE folks will be deciding the next President!



*gave me a good opportunity to educate her.


I know a guy who wanted to vote for RON PAUL but didn't know what the gold standard was. The political ignorance of the average American is astounding.
 
2012-10-23 11:12:49 AM

RedT: The undecided voters that I have met all have the same thing in common - Absolute ignorance of either candidates position and no clue of anything that has been going on.

Examples:

I was asked by my personal trainer last week, "So I hear Obama is a Muslim, then I hear he isn't. What's the deal? Is he a Muslim or something."
The question was sincere* but how farking clueless can a person be?

Was told by another friend that Obamacare REQUIRES all hospitals, even Catholic hospitals to provide abortions.

And a co-irker didn't know that Rmoney's Romneycare was a blueprint for evil Obamacare.

And THESE folks will be deciding the next President!



*gave me a good opportunity to educate her.


I prefer the undecided ignorant to my coworkers who bring up politics, are ignorant, reveal there is no way they won't vote Romney, and then top it off by dismissing any factchecking of Romney's statements with "oh, all politicians are liars". Bsrbsvr irl.
 
2012-10-23 11:14:54 AM

JollyMagistrate: The 538 model pretty much reflects this. As does Innitrade. Even if you fall into the silly group that thinks Nate Silver is some sort of partisan shill, Innitrade should be enough to support the impartiality. Invisible hand of the market doesn't lie.


dafuq's an "Innitrade"???
 
2012-10-23 11:17:07 AM

President Raygun: jasimo: JollyMagistrate: I think it is safe to say that Obama is more likely than not going to win the election. The odds are in Obama's favor and likely won't change much without some massive gaffe at this point, but he doesn't have it entirely locked down into a foregone conclusion. Romney could win, it's just a lot less likely at this point (though still better than most any other time in his campaign).

The 538 model pretty much reflects this. As does Innitrade. Even if you fall into the silly group that thinks Nate Silver is some sort of partisan shill, Innitrade should be enough to support the impartiality. Invisible hand of the market doesn't lie.

Intrade only has Obama at 58.5% to win.

That's waaaay too close for comfort.

That's a big drop in a week... Obama was at 67 ish just a week ago, what's the reason for the big drop?


Excellent question.

Historically, when betting odds rapidly change for no apparent reason, shenanigans are afoot.

Given Republicans past with election-tampering I'm not resting easy.

Can't wait until this is over.
 
2012-10-23 11:17:35 AM

Funk Brothers: If the San Francisco Giants can comeback and win every playoff series this season, Romney has a shot of coming back in the last two weeks.

Don't count him out.


What you sound like.

4.bp.blogspot.com
 
2012-10-23 11:19:20 AM
The Rmoney campaign has announced that 99% of the people polled who AREN'T those filthy 45%er welfare frauds and America-hating leeches has declared Rmoney to be the Most Awesomest Debate Winnar Evar!
 
2012-10-23 11:19:44 AM

President Raygun: jasimo: JollyMagistrate: I think it is safe to say that Obama is more likely than not going to win the election. The odds are in Obama's favor and likely won't change much without some massive gaffe at this point, but he doesn't have it entirely locked down into a foregone conclusion. Romney could win, it's just a lot less likely at this point (though still better than most any other time in his campaign).

The 538 model pretty much reflects this. As does Innitrade. Even if you fall into the silly group that thinks Nate Silver is some sort of partisan shill, Innitrade should be enough to support the impartiality. Invisible hand of the market doesn't lie.

Intrade only has Obama at 58.5% to win.

That's waaaay too close for comfort.

That's a big drop in a week... Obama was at 67 ish just a week ago, what's the reason for the big drop?


Obviously the media is influencing bettors with their desire for a horse race. Don't you read fark?
 
2012-10-23 11:25:44 AM

Spanky_McFarksalot: indylaw: Spoiler alert:


Obama is gonna win.

if the American people hadn't elected bush to a second term I would be more optimistic.



Yep... Polling is looking good for Obama going into the final weeks, but after 2004, I have no faith in my fellow countrymen anymore. We like uninformed ideologues, apparently.
 
2012-10-23 11:26:55 AM

jasimo: President Raygun: jasimo: JollyMagistrate: I think it is safe to say that Obama is more likely than not going to win the election. The odds are in Obama's favor and likely won't change much without some massive gaffe at this point, but he doesn't have it entirely locked down into a foregone conclusion. Romney could win, it's just a lot less likely at this point (though still better than most any other time in his campaign).

The 538 model pretty much reflects this. As does Innitrade. Even if you fall into the silly group that thinks Nate Silver is some sort of partisan shill, Innitrade should be enough to support the impartiality. Invisible hand of the market doesn't lie.

Intrade only has Obama at 58.5% to win.

That's waaaay too close for comfort.

That's a big drop in a week... Obama was at 67 ish just a week ago, what's the reason for the big drop?

Excellent question.

Historically, when betting odds rapidly change for no apparent reason, shenanigans are afoot.

Given Republicans past with election-tampering I'm not resting easy.

Can't wait until this is over.


Exactly. When Obama's chances per intrade spiked from 58% to 65% last week it was an indicator that the fix was in. Given that Obama is a Chicago democrat, would anyone be surprised if the election were rigged in his favor?

/please. Not everything is a conspiracy against your side. Obama got a boost last week when his 2nd debate performance was so much better than his first, but when the impact on polls was relatively muted trading went back the other way. Not that big a deal. Relax.
 
2012-10-23 11:27:27 AM

brianbankerus: dafuq's an "Innitrade"???


The opposite of an outy-trade.
 
2012-10-23 11:30:02 AM

Tyrone Slothrop: I know a guy who wanted to vote for RON PAUL but didn't know what the gold standard was. The political ignorance of the average American is astounding.


I was a big-city public library reference librarian for 30+ years, starting in 1969. Judging by the sort of questions from patrons I listened to every day during that entire period, I have to say I don't find it "astounding" at all. Pathetic, yes. And appalling. But not surprising.
 
2012-10-23 11:37:40 AM
Momentum has done shifted. Its romney. Book it.
 
2012-10-23 11:38:01 AM

Sudo_Make_Me_A_Sandwich: So, people whose minds weren't made up before the last debate suddenly changed them after a night of the candidates tripping over each other to say how much they agree with the other's foreign policy positions?

Really?


You speak as if the two weren't stumbling over themselves to redirect whatever foreign policy question they were fielded back into the realm of the economy and domestic spending. One of the tetchiest moments in the debate was Romney defending his record on Massachusetts schools.
 
2012-10-23 11:38:15 AM
Because the media likes to paint the narrative of a comeback campaign, everyone is acting so surprised that the race has tightened and is giving way too much credence to Gallup's outrageous poll (as Nate Silver recently wrote, it's far and away the most cited poll).

The Quinnipiac Ohio poll with Obama +5 at 50% is bad news for Romney. Not only does Romney need to pickup all of the undecided voters, he also needs Obama supporters to change their mind. And on top of that, early voting in Ohio is set to surpass 2008, and polls show Obama winning early voters by +13 and +15.
 
2012-10-23 11:40:10 AM

thornhill: And on top of that, early voting in Ohio is set to surpass 2008, and polls show Obama winning early voters by +13 and +15.


And that's a mighty hard ratio to cheat your way past. Not that they won't try.
 
2012-10-23 11:41:44 AM

colon_pow: Momentum has done shifted. Its romney. Book it.


Post that in a few more threads and you might just convince yourself... That'll be one person, anyway.
 
2012-10-23 11:43:35 AM
All I know is I'm going to have a heart attack beforehand...

Thinking that there is a potential, however small or otherwise, that Romney and his minions may win and set at least the next 4 years policy.


/ooo...where's my antacids and aspirin??
 
2012-10-23 11:47:45 AM

Duke Phillips' Singing Bears: thornhill: And on top of that, early voting in Ohio is set to surpass 2008, and polls show Obama winning early voters by +13 and +15.

And that's a mighty hard ratio to cheat your way past. Not that they won't try.


Was "early voting" available in 2008? If so, how do early voting trends compare to then? If Obama was 3 points ahead in early voting in '08 and is 13 points ahead now, then yeah he's kicking ass.

But people who are more likely to early vote (younger folks would be more likely to use this option rather than stick to what they've done for their entire lives) would also tend to vote dem, no?
 
2012-10-23 11:49:47 AM

Debeo Summa Credo: Duke Phillips' Singing Bears: thornhill: And on top of that, early voting in Ohio is set to surpass 2008, and polls show Obama winning early voters by +13 and +15.

And that's a mighty hard ratio to cheat your way past. Not that they won't try.

Was "early voting" available in 2008? If so, how do early voting trends compare to then? If Obama was 3 points ahead in early voting in '08 and is 13 points ahead now, then yeah he's kicking ass.

But people who are more likely to early vote (younger folks would be more likely to use this option rather than stick to what they've done for their entire lives) would also tend to vote dem, no?


Whoops, I guess it's already been said that early voting was available in '08. Any idea on how the early voting fell then?
 
2012-10-23 11:50:35 AM

Debeo Summa Credo: Obviously the media is influencing bettors with their desire for a horse race. Don't you read fark?


True...a thousand times. The media are so worried about a blowout (either way) they are falling all over themselves to put up any story that runs counter to the obvious. After the first debate, it was lobbed to Obama pretty much...sort of. Now with Obama stronger, they are publishing any story they can find to prop up Romney.....pretty much...sort of

Each camp is living in their respective bubbles at this point, firmly rooted in the belief of their candidate. The The big Maybe/MaybeNot X factor is about these mysterious "undecideds". I personally don't buy it and think it is a media and pollster fabrication to a large degree. However, it cannot be totally ignored as a possibility.

Regardless, I don't see many people changing their minds short of some crazy gaffe or major embarrassment from either of the candidate dudes. I think most of the wet-noodle undecideds have actually made up their minds already. The media is just milking it for all it is worth and are using a certain few of these wet-noodles as examples not because they have anything of value to say, but that these bonehead voters want to get interviewed and stroke their own egos. And the media types need to sell that ad space.

As far as I am concerned, this thing is over, but I am not sure who is the winner. While I would like to think it is Obama, at the same time one cannot discount the 3 Monkey aspect of the conservative electorate (or the libs either for that matter). Its only a crap shoot at this point because the entire process is so muddied that a clear answer is no longer possible. May as well just do the vote and get it over with.

jonathanturley.files.wordpress.com 
The Electorate Bubble Club
 
2012-10-23 11:51:06 AM

rogue49: All I know is I'm going to have a heart attack beforehand...

Thinking that there is a potential, however small or otherwise, that Romney and his minions may win and set at least the next 4 years policy.


/ooo...where's my antacids and aspirin??


I'm glad I'm not the only one. I'm going to need one of those celebrity hospital stays for 'exhaustion' when this is all over.
 
2012-10-23 11:51:47 AM
If you're undecided, you are probably a dumb, ignorant sheep. Fark you.
 
2012-10-23 11:51:47 AM

Duke Phillips' Singing Bears: thornhill: And on top of that, early voting in Ohio is set to surpass 2008, and polls show Obama winning early voters by +13 and +15.

And that's a mighty hard ratio to cheat your way past. Not that they won't try.


Apparently there is still all kinds of missinformation being sent out about who can vote early.

Another Ohio thing in Obama's favor: all the polls have Sen. Brown (D) at +5 to +9 hovering around 49%. It's hard to believe that many people are going to split their vote for Romney to win, and indicative that the Democrats are closing in on the 50 percent threshold statewide.
 
2012-10-23 11:53:23 AM

Debeo Summa Credo: Whoops, I guess it's already been said that early voting was available in '08. Any idea on how the early voting fell then?


This is what I could find:

The Columbus Dispatch is estimating that the early votes have gone to Obama by a 56% - 42% margin.
 
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